Comments on: Free agent reviews: Alfonso Soriano

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 03:45:44 +0000

Uh, the exact quote was “more of an out machine”.

And Jeff Cirillo posted the following OBPs, in successive years: .371, .391, .367,.402, .401, .391. Even the last two years playing part-time in Milwaukee, he’s posted.373 and .369 OBP’s. He’s not Edgar, but he’s not an out machine, either- he’s just another player who got Screwed by Safeco.

By: Nate

Nate — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 02:02:47 +0000

So, according to Pinto, the difference between “a very productive player” and “an out machine” is .020 in OBP? That’s about 15 walks per season, or one walk every 11 games. Is that really that big of a deal?

Even if that’s a significant difference, perhaps we could tone down the use of superlatives? In my book, Edgar Martinez was a “very productive hitter” and Jeff Cirillo was “an out machine.”

By: msb

msb — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 01:22:40 +0000

amazingly, Kirby Arnold broke the story in the Herald on Oct 26th, reporting the internal decision, before it went to Yamauchi...

By: Mariner Fan in CO Exile

Mariner Fan in CO Exile — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 01:14:58 +0000

#35 – Yeah, I’d put the chances of a “trick play” on the Matsuzaka bid to be just below me winning the lottery this week (I didn’t purchase a ticket, so you can do the math on the odds). That seems to be a very unlikely strategy that would just piss a lot of people off, and probably work only once, if at all (don’t get me wrong, I’d take it working once). With Yamauchi’s name as part of the confirmation, I don’t think it fits his mode of operation to lie (or Bavasi’s for that matter).

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:59:42 +0000

Seriously this is great stuff and part of why I come to this site. So if I took BRAR and added FRAA* (instead of FRAR) and divided by 9 to convert runs to wins, would I have the right measure of wins a player contributes?

I’d rather use VORP than BRAR. They’re theoretically measuring the same thing, but Keith’s got a better handle on replacement level than Clay does. But yes, VORP + good fielding metric should get you in the ballpark of win value added. Replacement level players tend to field at a league average rate or so (there’s a large population of no-hit, all-glove players in Triple-A), so make sure your defensive metric of choice is valuing them at runs above average, not runs above replacement.

That said, keep in mind that VORP is a value statistic, not a projection tool, so it doesn’t work particularly well for things like trying to figure out which free agents to sign, especially for pitchers.

By: colm

colm — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:57:29 +0000

As regards the non-bid on Matsuzaka – I don’t think the Mariners’ front office have much of a track record in cunning, conniving duplicity.

They are more inclined to the sort of obvious, gullible, near-sighted free agent blundering that I hoped was the preserve of Jim Bowden.

I must go now before I become overwhelmed in superabundant, florid adjectives.

By: bat guano

bat guano — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:51:57 +0000

Thanks Dave. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. I guess I was assuming the M’s voluntarily offered up the information, as opposed to having it ferreted out by the press. Nonetheless, I’m surprised they weren’t a bit more coy given the generally negative reaction. And I guess I would have thought they’d make a token bid anyway unless something else was going on.

By: Adam S

Adam S — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:47:59 +0000

Because WARP calculates offensive replacement level and defensive replacement level individually, …
Basically, WARP is wrong.

Uhm, made any friends at BP recently

* Of course I recall your explanation that BP’s fielding metrics aren’t the best, so let’s agree that for my question FRAA is the “right” number of runs prevented above average and not necessarily the BP version thereof.

a guy who hits like Scott Podsednik and fields like Manny Ramirez [is] likely in A-ball, and isn’t a true reflection of a replacement level player.

Did Carl Everett sign with an A-ball team. I missed that.

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:42:17 +0000

The Mariners didn’t call a press conference to announce they weren’t going after Matsuzaka. Larry Stone wrote a piece for the Times the day before the news came out where he stated the M’s weren’t going to be involved, and then the next day, we posted the note that the M’s weren’t going to even make a bid. Later that afternoon, Corey Brock got ahold of Bill Bavasi and asked him to confirm a report Larry and the blog had already made public, and he did so.

I doubt the M’s were planning on telling the world that they weren’t bidding. Larry Stone did that for them, and then we followed up on that.

By: bat guano

bat guano — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:37:38 +0000

Thanks Gwangung for the insight on the making of the decision not to pursue Matsuzaka (i.e. Yamauchi didn’t demand it), but I still don’t really understand why they felt compelled to announce it so publically. Why not simply pretend to have lost out on the bidding? Are they trying to tell someone else that they’re more interested in them (Jason Schmidt?), or is there something more subtle behind it? Any ideas?