Random Monday Musings
The GM winter meetings start. Rumors a-flurry! We’ll see if the M’s look to make any moves, or if they sign Jason Schmidt this week (which, if I may, seems likely).
We find out Tuesday whether the Seibu Lions accepted the highest bid, whatever it may be, for Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Hardball Times has a piece today worth reading (”When Will Daisuke Matsuzaka’s Arm Fall Off?“) as food for thought. The summary contains this gem.
I am surprised that so many baseball fans are worried about how Matsuzaka threw over 200 pitches in a high school playoff game. That kind of stress on an arm probably isn’t a good thing, but it isn’t a death sentence either. Strenuous 150-plus pitch outings for high school and college pitchers happen, even in the United States.
I’m surprised that people are frightened of playing Russian Roulette. Many people play and are not killed…
We find out Thursday (or earlier) whether the Yakult Swallows accepted the highest bid for 3B Akinori Iwamura, who we haven’t discussed here at all since the M’s aren’t in the market for a 3B.
The interesting news is that the Yankees, rather than pay $4m to opt out of Jaret Wright’s contract, agreed to pay $3m of it so they could ship him to the Orioles, re-uniting him with Leo Mazzone, who is guy who managed to last wring a nice season out of Wright.
Also interesting is the M’s are converting some suites into one large super-suite (thanks to eponymous coward for the pointer). Sounds kind of like the Diamond Club, only higher. This is a really weird thing to do. You’ve seen the team push the bizarre press box seats before, but this means that the team’s been unable to get any companies to bite, aaand didn’t have much success selling them for individual games, either. Look forward to having Dave Valle pimp these seats endlessly during broadcasts.
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The interesting news is that the Yankees, rather than pay $4m to opt out of Jaret Wright’s contract, agreed to pay $3m of it so they could ship him to the Orioles, re-uniting him with Leo Mazzone, who is guy who managed to last wring a nice season out of Wright.
In addition, the Orioles gave up their best relief pitcher from last year, at least by FIP. Of course, his FIP was 3.49, and the fact that he was the best on their staff speaks more to the lack of quality in their bullpen than anything super special about Britton. Still, the Yanks got a cheap, seemingly useful bullpen arm out of the deal. The Cash-man is on fire so far this off-season.
Britton’s roster filler. He’s not very good.
I say sign Schmidt as soon as you can before other pitchers sign huge contracts and puts ideas in his head.
Schmidt’s agent knows the market will play into his hands if he waits. He won’t sign immediately.
Plus, he already has ideas in his head.
Britton’s roster filler. He’s not very good.
Still, my impression over the last few years is that the Yankees have seemingly been giving out $6M/year contracts to relief pitchers who aren’t very good, so this would seem to indicate a step in the right direction.
Sure. The Yankees are having a good offseason, I agree. I just wanted to make sure that no one gets Chris Britton confused with a valuable player.
Actually, Derek, it’s the general manager’s meetings that start today — usually much less active than the winter meetings, which are in December.
Dave, do you think that it’s likely that the M’s sign Schmidt this week?
Wow, an appeal to another author in-thread.
What are you talking about Derek?
“I’m surprised that people are frightened of playing Russian Roulette. Many people play and are not killed…”
Heh.
When I wrote the sentence about Matsuzaka’s 200+ pitches in one game, I intended to contrast the attitudes to this one start versus what happens in the U.S. all the time. A good young North American pitcher can throw 170 pitches in a game and it doesn’t seem to get many folks riled up the way Matsuzaka’s high school game from seven years ago does.
[non-sensical]
DMZ wrote:
Though I agree with you about what it signals about their success in marketing these suites, I don’t think it is that weird. The P-I business page article makes a pretty good argument for why they might want to do this and why it can be argued it is a good and innovative idea. Old-style suite marketing tends to only appeal to businesses who want to entertain clients on a pretty large-scale. This opens up the marketing to companies who want to only entertain clients in smaller numbers. It is different in those suites than in the Diamond Club (a much more intense baseball experience, less conducive to business bullshitting), too. The Sonics did this (combined several end zone seats into one larger “club” that is used for businesses to entertain smaller numbers of clients without committing to 20+ seat costs) several years back, and I think they have had pretty good success with it.
Wouldn’t a larger suite mean less suites for sale, and thus businesses less able to commit to buying one?
Unless the Ms think there is demand for larger suites, in which case this is a good move. Otherwise they should make the suites smaller.
The Sonics did this (combined several end zone seats into one larger “club” that is used for businesses to entertain smaller numbers of clients without committing to 20+ seat costs) several years back, and I think they have had pretty good success with it.
You do realize that the Sonics had HUGE falloffs in luxury suite sales that prompted them to do this, right?
Basically, I don’t think this bodes well for season ticket sales- a fair chunk of them are based around suites and businesses.
They’re not moving to larger suites, they’re making a larger suite and they’re going to sell small ticket packages out of it. So instead of buying even a whole suite for a game, you’d buy four tickets in the grande suite.
I too see this as a sign they’re doing badly at whole-suite sales, which they’d clearly prefer.
Look forward to having Dave Valle pimp these seats endlessly during broadcasts.
” … and Joh made a nice grab there say having a private box or suite at the local ballpark is one of those perks of corporate life many businesses can only dream of…”
Hickey and Larue both talk about the GM’s meetings today
oh, and Joh got 6 votes for AL ROY
The M’s were experimenting with the idea of this mondo-suite idea last year — they took two of the group suites and opened them to the public (at $50/ticket IIRC). Free food included.
I guess it was enough of a success that they’re going with this mega-luxury suite idea, although I’m not exactly sure what this gets anyone over just getting a double group suite, except for the ability to buy individual suite tickets, something you can’t do with a group suite.
I’ve been in a few group suite games over the years. They’re nice, but the food is nothing to write home about. And AFAIK, the regular suite food isn’t that much better.
I look forward to EVERYTHING Dave Valle says, as long as he says it slowly and sensually.
What, dw, you mean they really aren’t a suite deal?
one thing we do know, the bids for Iwamura will be no where as silly as the numbers being thrown around for Matsuzaka…
[snerk]
ESPN Online Chat With Buster Olney Reveals He’s Illiterate
November 9, 2006 | Onion Sports
BRISTOL, CT—During a special ESPN.com “Hot Stove Preview” chat session last Monday, it was revealed that leading baseball analyst Buster Olney is unable to read or write. “Evry teem nedes god pichinq,” Olney wrote in response to a question about whether or not he thinks Barry Bonds will resign with the Giants. He added: “RGFlssdas glkfrsfgtyr 578fhs3lka;d.”
Several ESPN.com contributors, including Jayson Stark and Rob Neyer, came to Olney’s defense the following day, saying that they too are illiterate, but believe that skills such as reading or writing are unnecessary in their line of work.
EC wrote:
“You do realize that the Sonics had HUGE falloffs in luxury suite sales that prompted them to do this, right?”
Yes. Do you realize how patronizing you sound?
I said that I agreed with Derek about what this moves signals about their success in marketing suites. However, you seem to be implying that selling access to a larger, more-amenities suite in smaller ticket chunks is necessarily canibalizing season-ticket and group sales in general. It isn’t. There is a significant market of businesses who want to entertain a small clients other than in a regular ol’ seat, without a major financial commitment. If they are having trouble selling the suites anyway (and I agree they are), why not try to create a new market? It may even serve as a bit of a loss leader into full-suite sales, for some.
The Sonics experience, even though it was preceded by a huge drop-off in suite sales (don’t you think that had something to do with the product they put on the floor?), has been good with this concept. It is my understanding (granted, at least second- or third-hand) that they haven’t seen nearly the drop-off in season ticket sales to the businesses using that end-zone mega-suite as you are implying the Mariners will.
High ranking MLB officials have confirmed that Boston has indeed won the rights to Matsuzaka with a posting bid of $5.2 billion…..
#12: well maybe….but if our little league is limiting pitch counts, I’m pretty sure high school coaches are catching on too….
well maybe….but if our little league is limiting pitch counts, I’m pretty sure high school coaches are catching on too….
Never underestimate what a washed-up 40-something is willing to sacrifice for a shot at faux glory by coaching a team to a state championship. Especially if he’s just sacrificing the future of some rotator cuffs and UCLs.
23. Indeed. He doesn’t excite me too much though. Good article the other day on projecting him at the Hardball Times. Depending on the system, he could be Ryan Zimmerman or David Bell. So take them for what you will.
High ranking MLB officials have confirmed that Boston has indeed won the rights to Matsuzaka with a posting bid of $5.2 billion…..
Well, maybe a few billion less than that (but still at least one million dollars too much), but
Boston indeed looks to be the “winner.”
I wonder if The Boss will go and do something wacky, like sign Nomah, just to get a dig back at the beantowners?
yeah, Mat’s right, and LL is pretty isolated (though probably on the right track, for lots of reasons including some that don’t involve pitchers’ arm health) on the pitch count thing . . ..
I wonder if The Boss will go and do something wacky, like sign Nomah, just to get a dig back at the beantowners?
It’d be like an All-Star Shortstop Happy Meal – collect all three!
5.2B yen, roughly 40M USD.
Hickey opined that having Michael G. in the system could be a lure for Nomar …
$5.2 billion US=======hyperbole used for sarcastic effect….
speaking of hot stoving, KOMO invites you to listen to the “Hot Stove League” show on Tuesday’s from 7-8 pm starting November 14th and “Mariners Baseball Sunday” debuting November 19th from 7-8 pm.”
Maybe they’ll have someone on to explain the M’s off-season thus far!
However, you seem to be implying that selling access to a larger, more-amenities suite in smaller ticket chunks is necessarily canibalizing season-ticket and group sales in general.
No, I’m implying that not selling suites and subsequently turning them into opportunities to sell tickets this way is making lemonade out of very sour lemons- and you might note that Sonics overall attendance didn’t do wondrous things, either, when their suites stopped selling.
The bottom line is the Mariners AND the Sonics aren’t putting good product out there- and it’s showing up in all aspects of attendance.
The M’s were experimenting with the idea of this mondo-suite idea last year — they took two of the group suites and opened them to the public (at $50/ticket IIRC). Free food included.
Really? I never saw those seats available. Was beer included, too? Because I think I would have sensed such an opportunity.
Really? I never saw those seats availrable. Was beer included, too? Because I think I would have sensed such an opportunity.
No beer included. So that might explain why you didn’t sense it.
And I was wrong — it was $30. For comparison, a group suite starts at $4000 for 40 tickets, but that includes catering.
The wife back in the day (early 2000s) worked for a UDub school that rented a suite for an alumni deal. Always a big fundraiser, always popular. Of course, the M’s didn’t suck back then.
The M’s firmed up their minor-league staffing today:
Heeeeyyy. Welcome back Henry Cotto.
re: Matsuzaka
I saw this posted on another blog and had to ask: what keeps a team like the Marlins, Pirates, etc. (with low payrolls), to put in an absurdly high bid on Matsuzaka? Say, $75 million.
Then, pretend they lowball him…offer him a minor league contract or the major league minimum.
I thought the posting fee was only paid if the teams came to an agreement.
Couldn’t a “low payroll” team do this to effectively block the Japanese player from playing for a rival?
FrayLo, that wouldn’t work. In the Japan-U.S. agreement, there is some language that allows Selig to give the rights to the second-highest bidder if it’s in the “best interest of baseball”. I’m sure a $75M bid followed up by a lowball offer would raise some eyebrows at the commisioners office.
Well, it was an interesting thought. What sucks, in my opinion, is that this posting process automatically favors teams with a lot of cash to burn. There’s gotta be some way to remedy this.
#44:
True enough. Know what else favors teams with a lot of cash to burn?
Baseball.
So does Free Agency and international scouting, and pretty much everything in fact.
Yes, you have a point. I guess this goes back around to the idea of having a worldwide draft. Why should players from Japan have an automatic free agency opportunity?
Or, why shouldn’t domestic players be able to pick their employer?
Also, NPB players are under team control far longer and make far less than their MLB counterparts. A posting like this isn’t free agency, it’s a sale of rights.
Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi should attempt to trade first baseman Richie Sexson to the New York Yankees for left fielder Melky Cabrera.
It’d be a win-win trade for both the M’s and the Yankees.
#48, it makes sense, so …is this just an imaginary problem in my head?
I know that in the past there had been talks of instituting a worldwide draft. It’s how the NBA works. Is this an apples and oranges thing? Is it impossible to compare the NBA draft to the MLB draft?
Excuse my ignorance, I just think that the posting method for players coming from Japan is somewhat skewed unfairly towards rich teams. I suppose one could make the same argument about the MLB draft, and even defecting Cuban players.
Hey, DMZ, you should delete my last post; I posted it in the wrong forum.
As much as I dislike Seattle Mariners CEO Howard Lincoln, he nevertheless seems to be a savvy businessman. All in all, if Lincoln thinks that one large suite be more profitable than a few small suites, then so be it.
Has it occured to the M’s front office that, no matter the quality of the team on the field, having Dave Valle in the press booth must knock a couple of points off their television figures?
having Dave Valle in the press booth must knock a couple of points off their television figures?
Expecially (sic) when he opens his mouth.
Tomo Ohka?
So, basically, we’re getting the RH Japanese version of Jarrod Washburn, except not as good?
Well, if he’s cheap and on a one year deal, I guess, but yeesh.
Link is here:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/292201_mari14.html
#50
I think you definitely have a point about “richer teams having an advantage” in the posting system, but again, that applies to almost every aspect of the game other than drafts, and this whole posting system is NOT a draft. (but then, it kinna does not make sense to call these players “rookies” in their first year in the big leagues)
There really is not a “fair” way of doing this, since the posting fee is there to give compensation to the Japanese teams and avoid large number of players flowing to the US.
Om, yeah, richer teams have the advantage. That’s why revenue sharing is the best answer MLB has come up with yet with regard to trying to maintain or get to competitive balance among teams. (Not that it’s a good answer).
Even the draft (which is a restraint of trade on a players’ right, you know, since they only get to negotiate with one team and/or go back to college and wait it out…kinda like the Japanese posting process) is only a temporary fix and a lousy one at that. Weak teams can’t afford the signing bonuses anymore, so don’t even get to DRAFT the best players each year. And even the players they draft, well, they have them only until they hit free agency, when they inevitably lose them to teams that can pay more – if they haven’t traded them off well before then.
It’s called the invariance principle, by Simon Rothenberg. Talent goes where the money is. Thus the solution is: spread the money around evenly and presumedly the talent will also get spread around evenly.
Of course, that’s assuming you have somebody in charge smart enough to identify the talent, and coaches in place smart enough to not screw it up while you’re developing it.
—
In other news, Larry Larue’s TNT article today is pretty interesting. The Red Sox winning DM bid was $42 mill, and 2 teams (Yankees and Rangers) each bid over $30.
Weak teams can’t afford the signing bonuses anymore, so don’t even get to DRAFT the best players each year.
That’s absolutely not true.
Every team in the major leagues can afford a first-round signing bonus for any player. That they choose not to is another issue.
#
I saw this posted on another blog and had to ask: what keeps a team like the Marlins, Pirates, etc. (with low payrolls), to put in an absurdly high bid on Matsuzaka? Say, $75 million.
Then, pretend they lowball him…offer him a minor league contract or the major league minimum.
I thought the posting fee was only paid if the teams came to an agreement.
Couldn’t a “low payroll” team do this to effectively block the Japanese player from playing for a rival?
The team could split the posting fee with the pitcher, and call the bluff.
From Ken Rosenthal.
How hot is free-agent right-hander Gil Meche? His agent, Casey Close, says that more than half of the teams in the majors have expressed interest in the pitcher, with about one-third of them indicating that Meche is their top priority.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6168854
Yikes.
Is it safely assumed that Meche will be offered arbitration by the M’s? And, it looks like the M’s will be receiving compensation under the brand new CBA, correct? And if so, is there really that much of a difference between a third round and a sandwich 3rd / 4th round pick?
Re #61: Huh? Where’d you come up with that? We’ll offer Meche arbitration, he’ll sign elsewhere, and we’ll get a sandwich pick after the first round. Where are you pulling the third round from?
Some article I was reading on the CBA specifically gave Meche as an example of a class B free agent…
Article
“Type B and C free agents, that are the run-of-the-mill, Gil Meche and Marlon Anderson type free agents, will also be affected by the new CBA. Type C free agents are eliminated entirely in the new agreement. This means there will be no compensation if a team signs a player of below average ability.
Teams losing type B free agents will also no longer receive direct compensation from the team that signs them. So, if a team like the Phillies signs a player like Meche (who will most likely be considered a type B free agent) from Seattle, the Mariners will no longer receive the Phillies 3rd round pick. Instead Seattle would receive a pick sandwiched between the 3rd and 4th rounds.”
So…maybe this is team specific? I don’t know, as looking around at other articles, other people are interpreting it differently.
The article you were reading is ignorant. Direct compensation is “team-specific” in the sense that the top half of the first round is protected, so those teams would lose 2nd-round picks instead. And in theory, to the extent that a team signs multiple free agents and has to surrender multiple picks, some other team might actually receive their 3rd-round pick that way. But sandwich picks are independent of that, they come after the first round regardless (Type C sandwich picks used to be after the second round).