#125: I think the real issue is that his salary is so dramatically higher than ‘05. I think most would be comfortable with the notion that Sexson can be better next year than he was in ‘06. The question though is how likely is he to *be better enough* in ‘07 given his salary….

So if you believe he’ll continue to decline, then his contract becomes an “albatross” as David says. Or you believe there was some normal fluctuation in the last two years and he’s likely to improve next year, but not to the level of 2005.

Also, evaluating a single contract is one thing, but evaluating a team strategy is another. Even if a contract is “fair” according to a legitimate yardstick, that doesn’t make it the right thing for the team to do.

Lastly, I do believe that reaction of the fans is a very important consideration for general managers, and one that we baseball analysts don’t often take into consideration.

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Sexson’s free agent price is 12 mill per year. That’s *not* the market (FA+arb+slave) value for a +1 win above average 1B. Pujols free agent price would be over 40 million per year! If it came to that, I’d trade Pujols for an entire farm system.

Free agent price does not equal market value.

So you’ve pegged Richie’s current market value at somewhere around $12mil if he were a FA.

I know many of you would rather the M’s offload Sexson and get a player for better value, but this is the same market that the M’s are going to have to deal with if they want to aquire players via FA or trade (the price is UP).

Sexson is overpaid, but not outrageously so. Whether or not to trade him would depend on whether the M’s are able to find a replacement for his production elsewhere on the club through either FA or trade.

Dave,

Look at Konerko’s road splits over the past three years (since he hit his prime) and/or over his entire career – Sexson has a whale of a lot more pop and he hits the ball with topsin (which is why he can still hit reasonably in Safeco despite the RHandedness). How many HRs would Sexson hit playing half his games in Cellular Field/how would Konerko hit in Safeco (with warning track pop in Safeco and a backspin enducing swing)? I’d def slot Sexson into your list of second top tier firstbasemen. Stats like OPS+, EqA and VORP don’t catch the whole story (even though I realize EqA/VORP adjust for park/they don’t adjust for specific player types and skill sets).

Again, these are just my reads on the subject. If Dave, Tango, etc, think Sexson is overpaid to the point that he needs to be offloaded at any cost, thats cool. Maybe you all are right. I disagree, and we’ll just leave it like that.

You guys can have the last word..

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“Market” value: to the economists in the group, the free agent market is not the only market, and that’s the difference between the real world and baseball. You can do what Terry/119 is suggesting, and trade Sexson for guys still in the slave-wage market. The choice to avoiding the free agent market is that you can concentrate on player development.

Look at the Marlins. They had three bona-fide rookies of the year this year, and the ROY was… gasp… traded for, by giving up… gasp … Sexson-like players who were… gasp… fair (free agent) market value, but overpriced in an overall (free agent + arb-eligible + slaves) market. The Expos and many small-market teams operate in this manner.

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Repl/average: there’s no reason at all to talk about replacement level. I’ve already said that Sexson is +1 win above average 1B. Go back to my post 90.

In any case, an average player is +2 wins above the replacement level player. But, you can’t just say “ok, 4 million per win x 3 wins = 12 million”. That only makes sense if the free agent market is your only option (meaning, you are the Yanks, Mets and Redsox).

As Dave and Derek are trying to hammer, you don’t have to go to one place, if you have a chance to go somewhere else. And, getting a +1 above average 1B does NOT require you to go to the free agent route.

I guess it should be said that these kind of debates are EXACTLY why a *broader base* would take places like USSM and TangoTiger etc seriously…

Man, talk about bandwagon thinking.

Hello, fallacy! A sure sign that a dismissal will follow, completely ignoring any of the actual arguments made.

Come on folks, if we’re to be taken seriously by a broader base then we have to be able to allow your opinions, studies, biases, etc. to be challenged.

And there it is!

reflexive “attack mode” when challenged

Look, another!

stat people

Collect the set!

I don’t have the time to follow all of his comments or the replies

Okay, words fail. You aren’t actually even reading the argument? No time to listen, but time to mouth off and condescend to people who actually think about this stuff before posting?

All opinions are not equal. A “challenge” is not inherently valuable. Responding to unsupported assertions with facts — repeatedly, yes, because the assertions keep being made as though the facts had never been presented — is not “attack mode”, unless establishing minimum standards of rationality in argument counts as an attack. What do you want Dave, or other folks, to say after supported arguments are repeatedly ignored? “Okay, I guess you must have a point, since you keep repeating it”?

Sexson? Probably overpaid, but also probably with a market value of more than $6-8 MM even though the stat studies may say otherwise — there you go!