Sorry, Cubbie fans
Dave · November 19, 2006 at 1:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Jim Hendry has just tied a monumental millstone around the necks of the Chicago Cubs franchise, reportedly agreeing to an eight year, $136 million contract for Alfonso Soriano.
Good Lord. This offseason is a repeat of the Hampton/Neagle/Vaughn stupidity.
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Hey, at least it wasn’t us, right?
At least that leaves us more money for our own personal millstone, Jason Schmidt!
Good God. Wow.
worst contract ever?
Nah – that’s gotta be Mo Vaughn and his 6 year, $78 million deal, where he gave the Angels next to nothing. Of course, we all know who signed Mo Vaughn…
Chan Ho Park has to be in mix right?
Wow… amazing
Darren Dreifort still gets my vote. 5/55 for what amounted to something like 200 below-average innings.
Heh, and some folks thought that the Cubs overpaid for Jacque Jones last year. This contract puts that to shame.
Nowhere to hide this guy defensively, especially in the latter years of the deal. They’re going to have to swallow a lot of money to pawn the guy off to an AL team one of these years…
This contract makes Richie Sexson seem like a bargain. How does this affect the trade market for Richie?
Hey as a long standing cubs fan that now lives and Seattle and is loyal to the M’s now, let me tell you this is not a bad thing for us the fans. It has been decades, and soon to be centuries since our last days of glory. I know that this contract is huge and we have way over paid to sign Soriano, but you have to realize that we are the freaking cubs. We have to watch season after season fly by only to have our hopes dashed by Steve %@&*ing Bartman. I don’t blame it all on him, but that is kind of crap that we live with. Now I can at least watch a game and know that we have someone on the roster that can win a game on his own if he wants to. We are owned by the mega giant Tribune Company that have cheated the most loyal fans in the country (we are still selling out Wrigley) by not spending money. I am just so glad to see that maybe we are not satisfied be “the loveable losers” anymore.
Word is the Cubs would be willing to deal Jacque Jones for an arm now, too. Apparently they’d prefer to play Murton in right over Jones, or acquire a cheaper option than Jones’ 6 mil per year.
All that from the club who gave a 30-year-old bat who can’t defend, an 8-year contract.
As a Cubs fan, all I can’t say is “Yuck!”. Zito may not wind up being the worst signing this off-season. You’d think IF you locked him up for too many years, you’d get a discount in salary, or if you paid so much money ($17M/year), you could get away with a four year deal. But no, not the Cubs.
On the bright side, perhaps Soriano’s improvement last year represents a real change in development and with Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, and Jones, they have a solid heart of the lineup. Unfortunately the pitching staff looks like Zambrano, Prior, Dave, Jason, and DMZ.
and it sounds like it might be 3 years with an option for Catalanotto from Texas…
12: DMZ’s pitching skills are actually pretty good. Haven’t you seen how well he’s been pitching his new book, The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball, available now on amazon.com?
Holy schnikes. I honestly cannot believe that Soriano got more money than Beltran. That shocks the living hell outta me.
This is the sortof signing that dramatically improves the value of just about anyone who’s only got a few years left on their contract. I sure wish Bavasi would tap the trade market after this signing, because people are going to be a LOT more apt to take two years of someone like Richie Sexson than bother with signing someone to a 6+ year deal in this crazy marketplace.
This is a laughable signing, but let’s look at the bright side. It makes Sexson and any bullpen arms we’d want to deal off much more appealing to the masses.
I am just so glad to see that maybe we are not satisfied be “the loveable losers” anymore.
That’s a bit like some trailer trash coming into money and spending thousands of dollars on expensive yet ugly furniture because it will class up the doublewide.
It’s lipstick on a $136M pig.
However, this market is suggesting that maybe we’re not in an economic slump in this country. Clearly, there’s money to overspend on a small pool of free agents.
I’ll never ever EVER say one more word about ARod and his $252 million 10 year contract. NEVER!!!
Although I’m sure the Soriano signing is giving ARod pause this weekend, only days after reiterating for the 100th time that he wants to stay a Yankee (presumably not exercising his opt-out clause after next season). ARod could conceivably negotiate a deal for $35 million/year, 5 years or so, this time next year.
Word is the Cubs would be willing to deal Jacque Jones for an arm now, too.
I wouldn’t always recommend spending $9M/2yrs on a platoon player, but Jones still seems like he’d be a reasonable fit for the M’s, as long as he could be had for one of the M’s interchangeable bullpen arms.
Holy schnikes. I honestly cannot believe that Soriano got more money than Beltran. That shocks the living hell outta me.
What shocks me more than more money/year is that Soriano is going to get more years than Beltran, despite being three years older at the beginning of the contract.
What shocks me more than more money/year is that Soriano is going to get more years than Beltran, despite being three years older at the beginning of the contract.
I completely agree. I tried explaining that very simple point over on another board, and the guy wouldn’t relent — saying that Soriano is a “good slugger” no matter what, and that it’s a “solid signing for a team that needs bats.”
Um, sometimes I just don’t get the general public. This deal SCREAMS awful from the get-go. Soriano’s diminishing returns are likely to start up any year now, while a guy like Beltran could reasonably be expected to only slightly decline by the time his contract is up. Unreal.
Aside from the staggering windfall for Soriano and my immediate comparison to ARod (sorry about that, it’s a knee-jerk reflex; I probably won’t be doing it much any more
), one other thing occurred to me.
I haven’t really watched Soriano play the OF, but just going by the minimalist ZR/RF stats, he’s probably a speedy but takes-interesting-routes outfielder who muffs a few balls he catches up to, and probably bounced off OF walls a few times in his inexperience.
One would hope he learned a LOT fielding for the Nationals, because Wrigley’s OF walls aren’t padded. There’s a good chance Soriano’s RF will plummet to Adam Dunn levels if the brick walls make him tentative.
I’d like to post another perspective of this deal.
In Sorinao’s first six full seasons in the majors he hit more homeruns than Manny Ramirez and Moises Alou. I can project Soriano having Alou type longevity based on Alfo’s athletic build and tremendous bat speed. Also, Sori would be benefiting from the friendlier dimensions at Wrigley in left center compared to RFK. Keep in mind at 38, Alou hit 38 homeruns as a Cub.
Eight years over $136 million averages out to $17 million a year, and does sound crazy. However, there are quite a few sluggers that are playing close to their 40’s and still productive. The market could be so inflated by 2012 that paying $17 mil to a 36 year old may be a bargain for a 30 homerun hitter who hits for average, and drives in over a 100 runs. Only two of the past 6 seasons has Alfo’s finished with an OBP below (.324).
‘07 age:31
‘08 age:32
‘09 age:33
‘10 age:34
‘11 age:35
‘12 age:36
‘13 age:37
‘14 age:38
FWIW, just my 2 cents.
However, there are quite a few sluggers that are playing close to their 40’s and still productive.
The thing is, Soriano hasn’t even been a particularly valuable “slugger” so far in his career. If he starts replicating his career line year after year, you’re going to find somewhere around twenty better hitting corner OF than Soriano every year. Right now, Soriano’s playing at the level of a backup All-Star LF’er. So he’s maybe deserving of a backup All-Star spot the next couple of years, and then for the last 5-6 years of his contract he’s out of the All-Star discussion altogether.
For that, the Cubs are going to shell out $17M/year? I certainly wouldn’t want to be paying that kind of money to a guy who isn’t even top 6 in MLB at his position.
Funny quip from somewhere else (by a fan expressing dismay):
“….though he’ll fit in nicely with the Chicago Cubs’ albatross breeding program.”
If the market doesn’t correct itself in the next couple offseasons, Miguel Cabrera might be in line to top A-Rod’s contract when his FA year comes up.
If the market doesn’t correct itself in the next couple offseasons, Miguel Cabrera might be in line to top A-Rod’s contract when his FA year comes up.
Indeed. Cabrera is gonna break records with his deal.
In Sorinao’s first six full seasons in the majors he hit more homeruns than Manny Ramirez and Moises Alou.
Over those six full seasons, he made 2900 outs. Over Manny Ramirez’s first six full seasons, he made less than 2300 outs.
HR difference – 25
Out difference – 600
25 home runs aren’t worth anything close to 600 outs. Using one sliver of the game to measure a player is not wise.
I can project Soriano having Alou type longevity based on Alfo’s athletic build and tremendous bat speed.
You can, but odds are certainly against you being correct. Moises Alou type longevity is the exception, not the norm.
However, there are quite a few sluggers that are playing close to their 40’s and still productive.
They all have a broad base of skills. Find me a complete swing-at-anything hack that played well through his late 30s. Guys who share Soriano’s offensive approach, such as Juan Samuel and Raul Mondesi, don’t set a happy precedent for this theory.
Only two of the past 6 seasons has Alfo’s finished with an OBP below (.324).
Setting the bar a wee bit low for a guy being paid like an all-star, don’t you think?
Soriano’s probably a 3-4 win player next year and maybe the year after. As he hits his mid to late 30s, he’s going to be a near replacement level player, and no amount of inflation can account for that kind of salary for a guy who is barely helping his team win.
Do deals like this for the few quality bats available cause you to re-evaluate Sexson’s trade value, Dave?
Mat, I disagree that there are twenty better hitting corner OF than Soriano every year. In the N.L. it would be a shocking to see him as a back-up corner outfielder All-Star. However, the move to center would have him compete with Andrew Jones so I can see your point. But All-Star selections are a popularity contest. I also disagree that Soriano would be 5 spots below Andrew Jones for the next several years. A conservative estimate would be 3rd best CF’er in the N.L.
Sori was the 5th best outfielder in VORP last year in the National League. His 30 win shares were better than Manny Ramirez and Jermaine Dye last year.
Do deals like this for the few quality bats available cause you to re-evaluate Sexson’s trade value, Dave?
No. The only team interested in both Sexson and Soriano is the Baltimore Orioles. The interest in Soriano came from teams with no interest in Sexson, so they’re not going to turn to Richie as a fallback plan.
Essentially, the scenario you want to root for if you’re hoping for a Sexson deal this offseason is the Astros signing Carlos Lee, the Orioles shipping Miguel Tejada to the Angels for a bundle of young talent, and then the M’s shipping Sexson to the Orioles for guys like Hayden Penn and Jim Johnson.
Of course, this assumes that the M’s would make that deal, and the feeling I’ve gotten is that his big second half convinced them to keep him.
Sexson’s trade value, honestly, has never been higher. I mean, would you rather have two years of Sexson for $11M/yr or five years of Carlos Lee for $16M/yr?
Sexson is due $14M/yr over the next two years. His contract was very backloaded.
Sexson’s trade value, honestly, has never been higher. I mean, would you rather have two years of Sexson for $11M/yr or five years of Carlos Lee for $16M/yr?
Carlos Lee can theoretically play left field. Most of the teams going after Lee have first baseman.
I know it seems like this should make Sexson’s value go through the roof, but try finding a fit for him. Once you get past San Francisco and Baltimore, you’re running low on options. And when you only have two teams interested, the bidding’s not going to go nuts.
All these contracts just scare me about what the Mariners end up doing.
Soriano making what at the age of 38…This is easily the most rediculous contract I can recall. Any other I can think of are more defensible from some stance, whether it’s only that hindsight makes the contract bad or at least you’re not gauranteeing All-Star money+ to someone doesn’t project to be an A-S that late in thier career. I wonder if it’ll be the most rediculous by the end of this offseason…?
I’d find Sexsons value to be increased more by this signing if he stole 20+ bases a season and played the OF. Sexson doesn’t have 30-30 potential and Soriano’s not a good comp FTMP. They do have similiar hacking history though.
Good points Karen…The way that I understand A-rods escalation clause he has no reason to opt out just because someone else is making more. The structure works out to him making $27 million in 07 and 08 and $32 million(27+5M escalator) in 2009 and 2010. He can void the deal after 2007 season- + he can void the deal again after the 2008 or 2009 seasons, but only if someone in the major leagues has a higher salary than him – + he has a guaranteed salary increase for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of the following: 5M or 1M greater than average annual value of the position player w/ highest annual average salary – If someone else gets $30+ million a year A-rod will get the same +1 million for 09 and 10. If he can deal with waiting one year at $27 million. Of course he could take his chances at that point and possibly make more for longer…
Justin Speier at 4/18 is quite horrible as well.
I’m surprised the Angels did it. They seem to have a pretty solid pen.
Dave yu make a sound arguement against Soriano. I just find Alfonso pretty unique.
Find me a complete swing-at-anything hack that played well through his late 30s.
Ernie Banks had a similar athletic thin body type, and had a career .331 OBP. He was a free swinger after 30, and put up home run seasons of 37, 18, 23, 28, 15, 23, and 32 after his 30th b-day and a pretty good player with a long career.
HR totals of 18, 23, 15, 23… for that much money? We’re approaching Beltre territory.
The best news I’ve heard about what the Mariners may be up to is trading Jason Jennings away from the Rockies. Only problem with that is probably 90% of teams could be pursuing a pitcher who may be among the top 40 for years to come, is making only 5.5 million next year and then becomes a FA (unless signing is a condition of the trade)
Ernie Banks had a similar athletic thin body type, and had a career .331 OBP. He was a free swinger after 30, and put up home run seasons of 37, 18, 23, 28, 15, 23, and 32 after his 30th b-day and a pretty good player with a long career.
Ernie Banks also had superior plate coverage, striking out less than 100 times every year until his age 38 season in 1969. For most of his career, he averaged between 60-80 strikeouts per season. Power and contact ability is a whole other type of player, and includes guys like Nomar Garciaparra, Vladimir Guerrero, and even Carlos Lee.
Soriano doesn’t have that skillset. He has the power part, but not the contact part. Essentially, all he’s got as a hitter is batspeed, and when that goes, he’s going to be terrible.
38: You’re really going to use “Beltre territory” as the marker for horrible contracts when there are loads of guys out there with significantly worse deals who were clearly in decline the day the contract was signed?
Mat, I disagree that there are twenty better hitting corner OF than Soriano every year.
Soriano’s career EQA is .278. Corner outfielders in ‘06 who amassed more than 400 PA and a better than .278 EQA:
LF
Manny Ramirez
Jason Bay
Barry Bonds
Matt Holliday
Raul Ibanez
Carlos Lee
Carl Crawford
Josh Willingham
Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Juan Rivera
Reed Johnson
Emil Brown (yes, Emil Brown)
Dave Roberts
David DeJesus
Andre Eithier
Frank Catalanotto
RF
Jermaine Dye
Vlad Guerrero
Bobby Abreu
Ichiro Suzuki
J.D. Drew
Michael Cuddyer
Brian Giles
Brad Hawpe
Austin Kearns
Magglio Ordonez
Alexis Rios
Casey Blake
Moises Alou
Nick Markakis
Milton Bradley
That’s 32 hitters, and I don’t think there’s anything particularly special about 2006.
There’s no way I can believe Soriano should be thought of as a .300 EQA hitter. He had a career year in a contract year. He’s not going to repeat that over and over again. Over the course of his contract, he’s a lot more likely to hit his career averages than he is to hit what he did last year.
I also disagree that Soriano would be 5 spots below Andrew Jones for the next several years. A conservative estimate would be 3rd best CF’er in the N.L.
When judging whether or not Soriano is a good value, I don’t see any reason we should compare him only with players in the NL. Teams are allowed to trade with any team in MLB, and everyone signs players from the same free agent pool. CF with a .278 or better EQA in 2006:
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Vernon Wells
Andruw Jones
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Johnny Damon
Mike Cameron
Torii Hunter
Jim Edmonds
Some of those guys come with pretty sizeable defensive reputations, too.
And moving Soriano to CF doesn’t really increase his value, because he goes from being a defensive asset in a corner to average at best, or more likely a liability in CF. Just being able to run fast doesn’t make you a good outfielder, and on top of that, four years from now, Soriano’s probably not going to be running as fast as he is today.
There’s nothing special about Alfonso Soriano. Well, except that maybe he’s now the most overpaid player in baseball.
I generally agree with you, mat, in this argument; however, do you really believe that Gary Matthews Jr. is a better player than Soriano?
Even his steals aren’t, how shall I put it, valuable. Not last year anyway. He went 41/58, which is 70.6%. I don’t remember exactly where the “break-even” threshold is, but he’s pretty close to it. In other words, unless all his successes were coming at the best times and he was getting caught when it didn’t even matter, you might as well put up a big fat 0 in that spot in terms of its helpfulness.
Not too surprisingly, it still carries weight for a contract.
I generally agree with you, mat, in this argument; however, do you really believe that Gary Matthews Jr. is a better player than Soriano?
I never said that.
Carlos Lee can theoretically play left field.
So could Sexson. Theoretically. Though at least Lee would be a replacement level glove.
I know it seems like this should make Sexson’s value go through the roof, but try finding a fit for him. Once you get past San Francisco and Baltimore, you’re running low on options. And when you only have two teams interested, the bidding’s not going to go nuts.
If you look at them as hitters, then Sexson has some significant advantages. Position is what counts in a deal like this, but if the assumption is that Lee is going to be more a DH than a LF, then wouldn’t you at least give Sexson a look and try and acquire a cheap LF glove if you do trade for him? Hell, the M’s can throw in Reed with Sexson and you have a combination that’s $5M cheaper than Lee, though at the cost of one roster spot.
I know I’m stretching things here, and I know that it’s pretty much the O’s and Giants. But there has to be a way to squeeze more value out of Sexson.
Justin Speier at 4/18 is quite horrible as well.
Yeah, who gives relievers (even closers!) four year deals? And Speier’s 33!
Position is what counts in a deal like this, but if the assumption is that Lee is going to be more a DH than a LF, then wouldn’t you at least give Sexson a look and try and acquire a cheap LF glove if you do trade for him?
Because Baltimore is the only AL team interested in Sexson, even if you expand it to teams who might be looking for a DH. Seriously.
Not contending/can’t afford him: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland
Already has DH: New York, Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Texas
That leaves LA and Baltimore as the only two teams in the AL who don’t fall into one of those two categories. The Mariners aren’t trading Sexson to an AL West rival, and the Angels have their hearts set on a bigger fish like Tejada anyways. Which brings us back to Baltimore.
It’s the Orioles, the Giants, or he stays in Seattle.
My hat is off to Alfonso Soriano. Seriously, talk about being in the right place in the right time! His success in turning a few good years into a huge payout is right up there with Kevin Federline.
What I want to know is: what is his real age anyway? A few years ago, he went from 24 to 27 in one day. Does he have the power to reverse that? Will the Cubs put out a press release in the next few days revealing that he is actually 22, but has a strange thyroid condition that makes him “look” 30?
Sorry that I don’t have anything to add on point here, but when life hands you absurdity, you make an absurdity sandwich….right ‘Fonso?
What makes this signing unique is that for the past month analysts have been saying “some fool GM is going to give Soriano waaaaay too much,” but I don’t think anyone thought it would be this outlandish. I can’t think of a contract in recent years that *everyone* knew was so bad immediately when it was signed. For various reasons, I don’t think Vaughn, Nagle, and Hampton compare – essentially those signings weren’t so obviously horrendous at the time, or at least there weren’t nearly as many people screaming about how obviously bad they were at the time. Obviously, they were bad in retrospect. Actually, the closest might be Russ Ortiz / D-Backs a few years ago – now that was a contract that had about a 1% chance of being good when it was signed…
This offseason has been fun in an Alice in Wonderland kind of way.
First the Matsuzaka bidding war, now Soriano, what’s next?
Gil Meche getting a $100 million contract?
I’m curious that if we trade Sexson to anyone, (for pitchers, I assume) then where can we find another productive 1B? (not to mention the price) There are only Kevin Millars and Doug Mientkiewiczs in the free agent market, and M’s need to improve their hitting this winter, too.
How about Ben B?
I just saw this on ESPN.com:
“The Cubs do not yet know where Soriano will play. It could be any of the three outfield positions, and they know — working with the Nationals — he became an exceptional outfielder whose throwing arm makes him a rarity.”
I was under the impression that Soriano was less than exceptional in the outfield.
Who’ll man 1B once Sexson leaves…with the history of our front office..either Ryan Klesko or Darrin Erstad.
I was under the impression that Soriano was less than exceptional in the outfield.
But, but, he had a league-leading 22 outfield assists! That means he must have a throwing arm that makes him a rarity, and moreover that he must be an exceptional outfielder!
You know, Ichiro only had 8. He’s pretty pathetic and I can’t believe the Mariners are sticking him in the OF. He should go to 2B cause he obviously can’t throw worth beans, and is just generally awful out there.
Pff… Alfonso Soriano, 2007 NL Gold Glover. ‘Cause all the skills in the world mean nothing without the rep.
M’s need to improve their hitting this winter, too
The Mariners, despite having two positions in the lineup that were among the worst in MLB (DH and CF) were an average offense in the AL out of Safeco Field. The reason why everyone thinks the Mariner offense sucks is because Safeco Field is completely brutal on the offense.
Our CF is now Ichiro. Competent DHs and corner OFs aren’t hard to find (unless you get fixated on Carl Everett). The offense could easily survive a measurable downgrade at 1B iif we don’t get completely useless plate appearances from Everett, Reed, Jones, and instead get reasonable performance and the Benuardo platoon hits like they should-and in fact, we could have a BETTER offense than in 2006, because the odds are pretty good that the Beltre/Doyle/Lopez/Reed/Betancourt axis of young players will out perform their 2006 in 2007.
In terms of return on payout, ‘No’ Mo Vaughn was worse, but in terms of _prospective_ return at the date of signing, this is THE _WORST_ contract I have ever seen. I mean, just . . . I meaaaan *wow* Soriano isn’t even a good player, and the Cubs very probably will realize _nada_ on the last half of this deal.
This does confirm something I’d been feeling: Beltre’s contract looks more and more reasonable in the present environment. There will NEVER be a better time to deal him, or for a bigger payout. —Won’t happen, though.
The reason why everyone thinks the Mariner offense sucks is because Safeco Field is completely brutal on the offense.
I think their horrible inconsistency sans walks can also be partially attributed to the thoughts of a bad offense.
When the second half came around and Betancourt continued to be a .290 singles slap hitter with no walks, and Ichiro and Lopez decided it would be fun to try too, that was pretty harsh.
I agree that Safeco does help that impression, too.
Without the Lost At Bats there should be some improvement from those positions. Hopefully less would be coming from Ballgame too, but I guess that’s too much to ask.
I’m not too sure how much better Betancourt will be. Beltre and Lopez, I’d expect a little better but it’s certainly not a given. A full season of Doyle would be nice – let’s hope he stays healthy and does not pull a 2006 Tacoma. Reed…I’m not sure where he’d get the ABs in even if he does stick around.
I should have added, I think it’s fair to believe in the likeliness that Ibanez will regress.
I can’t believe Alfonso Soriano and Manny Ramirez now have comparable contracts.
And Manny’s looks pretty good.
and it sounds like it might be 3 years with an option for Catalanotto from Texas…
I’m not concerned with having Cat in the division. He’s a fine hitter (and I thought he’d end up a Yankee – the YES guys love him), but has an easily exploitable platoon split.
#60: Every year, we keep thinking Ibanez will regress, and frankly, with good reason. And every year, he keeps not regressing.
Dave has addressed his trends and patterns before, and there are some things in there that shout “unsustainable” … but then he keeps right on sustaining. He may get worse in 2007. He may not decline until 2009. Really, nobody knows.
But I sure wouldn’t make offseason personnel decisions that assume an offensive slip for Raul next season.
Soriano doesn’t have that skillset. He has the power part, but not the contact part. Essentially, all he’s got as a hitter is batspeed, and when that goes, he’s going to be terrible.
Question. It has been shown that as players age and lose their batspeed they do get more selective with pitches, and their walk rate increases. Wouldn’t this actually improve Soriano’s value a bit in his latter seasons, or at least balance things out?
.350 OBP and .600 slugging is a .950 OPS.
.365 OBP and .585 slugging is also a .950 OPS.
Just posing a question. Or does Soriano not have the ability to compensate in such a way? I realize that, eventually, he’ll become a .320-.330 OBP guy with a slugging near or below .500, but for the time being, couldn’t he stave off the downward curve?
You know, even after 2005, I wasn’t quite that down on Beltre. He kept his glove when he came to Seattle, and there was reason to hope for a return to, if not 2004, at least some higher level of production. Now, frankly, I wouldn’t trade him for a non-excellent offer. He’s not that overpaid, he plays good defense, and he’s still young and durable.
The difference between the market for Lee (OMG!) and Sexson (meh) is position, position, position. If Sexson could play a league average LF, he’d be a hot hot chip. As it stands, this is an example of why Sexson was a stupid idea in the first place; it’s just not that hard to get a first baseman that can hit. The market, in terms of # of teams looking for a first baseman, will never be all that great.
And Hendry just moved himself several ranks lower in the ‘Who’s the Best GM in MLB’ game. Goddess, I am staggered, and I am not a weak man.
I’m just curious. I know they have a DH, but do the Yanks have no interest? He’d play a better 1B than Sheffield and Giambi.
I don’t believe the M’s actually have any serious interest in dealing Sexson, of course.
Question. It has been shown that as players age and lose their batspeed they do get more selective with pitches, and their walk rate increases. Wouldn’t this actually improve Soriano’s value a bit in his latter seasons, or at least balance things out?
The increase in walks doesn’t offset the loss of average and power. It’s a trade-off, but overall, it’s a negative exchange.
.350 OBP and .600 slugging is a .950 OPS.
.365 OBP and .585 slugging is also a .950 OPS.
But that’s not how it works. It’s more like he’ll go from .280/.350/.550 to .260/.340/.470. The isolate walkrate goes up, but the lack of hits and home runs drive both the OBP and SLG down.
Sexson was brought in so that the M’s could sign a good FA. Had they not signed Sexson first it would have been alot harder to convince Beltre to sign and Beltre’s not who they wanted. The idea at the time was to sign Delgado and put Sexson in LF, which Sexson agreed to do. Hindsight shows that they still couldn’t sign Delgado and therefore needed a first baseman anyway. We would probably not have Beltre if we hadn’t signed Sexson. There was more to signing Sexson two years ago than having a slugging First-Baseman for the 2 years/$28million that’s left. Hindsight only shows that they weren’t able to get Delgado anyway and consequently couldn’t move Sexson to LF. If you want to compare Soriano’s signing to signings in the offseason of 2004 it shows how important it really would have been to sign Delgado because Sexson would likely be much more of a tradeable commodity this offseason rather than an albatross.
Sexson was brought in so that the M’s could sign a good FA. Had they not signed Sexson first it would have been alot harder to convince Beltre to sign and Beltre’s not who they wanted.
This isn’t true. Beltre was a done deal before Richie’s contract got finalized. The order they announced the contracts in was not reflective of how they actually came to terms.
The idea at the time was to sign Delgado and put Sexson in LF, which Sexson agreed to do.
Also not true.
I’m not concerned with having Cat in the division. He’s a fine hitter (and I thought he’d end up a Yankee – the YES guys love him), but has an easily exploitable platoon split.
it wasn’t so much about having him with Texas, it was that they gave him a 3 year deal.
Is there any chance that all 30 GMs are in a massive fantasy baseball league where they’re only allowed to draft players who are actually on the team they work for? Because if that’s the case, this signing makes perfect sense. Soriano is always rocking in fantasy stats and I can just see Jim Hendry sitting in his office, thinking to himself, “Screw it, if we’re gonna suck out on the field, I’m at least gonna give myself a shot to beat Minaya and Cashman!”
Dave – I’m not the best at knowing when Press and News are truth or purposeful fiction, but here’s the article and the critical sentence.
“At the moment, Sexson is penciled in at first base, though he would move to left field if the Mariners are successful in signing Delgado. ”
Mariners_Dec15_2004
In this instance, it was a popular rumor that didn’t have much ground in reality. The M’s discussed the possibility of using Sexson in left, but it was never going to materialize.
Well at the time of the announcement I didn’t know much about Sexson. Needles to say, in retrospect, I’m glad it was just a rumor, as I’d hate to see him lumbering around out there….probably would make Raul look a gold glover.
That’s assuming his art along the basepaths would equal his grace in the outfield.
M
The main reason it had little ground in reality is that Delgado wanted to stay on the east coast and the M’s weren’t willing to overpay as much as they had to to get him. They would have put Sexson in LF as long as they would have had to (which would have turned out to be about 3 months) to see if he could become adequate fielding a position he had a history of playing (LF.) Maybe he would have been horrible, but the money the M’s would have had to give Delgado for us to all find out would have probably been more horrible. It was not the reporters that brought up the idea.
Among references in the article on mlb.com written just after the Sexson signing that Lokiforever posted a link to “the organization is still talking to Delgado and Beltre, although it seems unlikely that both would sign with Seattle.” If they were still talking to Delgado where else would they have put Sexson? Once they gave up on Delgado (next day after signing Sexson) because he didn’t take the M’s any more seriously, of course the team put the spin out as if they were never interested in Delgado. Jilted lover…