Good news for the M’s
The Astros have reportedly agreed to terms with Carlos Lee on a 6 year, $100 million contract. Bad for the Astros, who have just inherited a decent player for an all-star salary, but good for the Mariners.
Why?
This is essentially the move the M’s needed to have happen if they wanted to exploit the market and reshape the roster by trading Richie Sexson. The two teams who are most interested in Sexson are the Giants and the Orioles. Both teams have significant cash to spend and covet a RH power hitter to add to the middle of their lineup. Neither team has been able to get any of the free agents they’ve chased to take their money, and an already mediocre market is now smaller by one big name.
The M’s should absolutely take advantage. With both teams running out of free agents to offer money to, Richie Sexson is going to look like a legitimate option for both Brian Sabean and Mike Flanagan. At this point, the chances of the M’s both removing Sexson’s contract from the payroll and getting a legitimate talent back in return are as high as they’ll ever be.
It’s a sellers market. Take advantage.
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What about trading Washburn?
During Bavasi’s reign, have the Mariner’s EVER sold high on a player? I’d like to think they see the opportunity here but unfortunately, history dictates they won’t move Sexson this offseason when he has actual value.
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.
#2: Freddy Garcia.
#3: Also, Randy Winn. He sucked last year. The return just didn’t pan out.
I’m worried they won’t move him because the don’t feel they have a replacement for him.
Ron Villone and Jamie Moyer too
BENUARDO!
I am fine with bringing in Benuardo to play 1st, but I’m concerned that the FO is going to say “NO WE NEED THOSE 40 HOME RUNS AND THEY CAN’T JUST BE REPLACED NO TRADING SEXSON”
#8 Yes that scares me too.
trade Sexson. of coarse I have stated we have plenty of options in the outfield and we have others that are able to play first and some that are able to play first if given the oportunity. We(the Mariners), should be able to come up with some top line prospects or here we go again top line bench players.
So, Dave, how do you interpret the Mariners’ mindset toward Sexson?
So, Dave, how do you interpret the Mariners’ mindset toward Sexson?
He’s white, he’s local, and he has tremendous power, but he strikes out too much.
This is one of those times when the organization’s disdain for the strikeout might actually help them. But I’d still say its a 10 to 1 longshot that they trade him.
I can’t see the front office having the stones to pull off trading Sexson. He’s like Bloomquist … casual fans don’t see the flaws because he’s local, so he must be good, right?
Just wondering if other people saw the article in the Times today by Geoff Baker concerning Bavasi’s dwindling options in the pitching market? I especially enjoyed the part where Baker mentions that agents talking with the Mariners are using the Washburn contract as a benchmark for their negotiations. Not only was the signing terrible in and of itself it has now been enshrined in the contract hall of infamy. Good work Bill, keep it up.
While I would like the M’s to trade Sexson and get a decent return, if they don’t land Drew or find some way through other trades to put that saved money to use, I’m fine keeping him around (unless we can actually get top-notch prospect(s) in return, which I doubt). If we keep him and do very little else, we’re not winning much this year. That’s fine, and that’s the same as if we move him and can’t find a way to (wisely) spend the money this year. Then he will have only one year left on a bad deal, which is not good, but can hardly be considered an albatross at that point and probably wouldn’t hinder us too much in in next year’s free agent market. And they still have the option to keep him around for 4 months of long balls and move him at the deadline. Also, it avoids the possibility of Bavasi acting on this newly available money by overpaying for Adam Eaton or Ted Lilly for four years.
I’m more worried that they think he is one of the few ‘faces that the casual fan knows’ and management makes Bavasi hang onto him for that reason
I’m still plugging for the M’s to NOT sign a single free agent pitcher. They should be able to get one or two via trade, then fill out the back of the rotation with some in-house scrubs.
One of the other benefits to the Lee signing is that the M’s might now be seriously considering Drew as part of a Sexson trade (aka Dave’s Plan).
ohmigod. no Finny analysis of the club’s finances this year!!!! How will we know what they can do???!!!!!
I’m white, local, and strike out way too much, too.
Can I have some money?
If we keep him and do very little else, we’re not winning much this year. That’s fine, and that’s the same as if we move him and can’t find a way to (wisely) spend the money this year.
Not really, no. Because even if you move him and can’t land Drew, Ramirez, Dunn, or Delucci, you can still come up with a one-year stopgap option like Shawn Green or Doug Mientkiewicz for $3 or $4 million and remove the risk that Sexson’s decline is legitimate or he gets hurt and you’re out $14 million more in 2008.
It also creates an opportunity in case one of the young hitters in the system takes a leap forward. If, for instance, you’ve got Shawn Green (or whoever) playing left field, Ibanez at DH, and Broussard at first base, you have plenty of options in case Adam Jones, Bryan LaHair, or (God forbid) Wladimir Balentien are hitting the crap out of the ball in Tacoma and you want to give them a shot.
Flexibility is valuable, both in terms of financial freedom and roster management.
If Wladimir Balentien reduced his K rate by like 40%, I’d love to see him on the big club. He’s a good defender, he has a great arm, and he has sick power.
But his strikeouts make Richie look like Ichiro.
JAS,
I agree with you on not signing a single pitcher, however I am going to take it one step further. Don’t do a damn thing. Keep everything the way it is. Let your rotation be Washburn, Hernandez, Piniero, Woods and Baek.
Not only do I see this rotation losing 90 games again, but this is who I want to see in the rotation.
Secondly, keep the lineup the way it is. Why do we need another power hitter. We have Sexson, Broussard, Ibanez, Beltre, Ichiro, Lopez, Johjima and Reed who will all hit 20 homeruns and drive in 80+. Release Mateo, Snelling and Bloomquist – we dont need them on our payroll anymore (especially Snelling! – he’ll never get healthy). Allow all of our young arms to stay in Tacoma to “develop” and take our top prospects and bury them in our system.
If we can do this, we’ll be sucessful in losing both Hargrove and Bavasi…and to me that would be better than any free agent signing OR trade partner
Oh, and just because I can’t stop making fun of these contracts:
Carlos Lee, 2006: 109 runs created, 47.2 VORP, .293 EqA
Raul Ibanez, 2006: 121 runs created, 37.8 VORP, .288 EqA
Pretty much a wash – maybe a slight, slight advantage for Lee. He’s also four years younger.
But at anytime last year, were you thinking “Raul Ibanez, man, I wish we could sign him to a $17 million per year contract”? Me either.
Flexibility is valuable, both in terms of financial freedom and roster management.
I agree – I would just personally prefer to see Richie hit a bunch of extremely long home runs than gain this margin of flexibility, especially since I think they could find room for Jones, etc, by moving Broussard or Sexson midseason, though Sexson’s value might not be as high once Baltimore and SF find stopgaps of their own. (On the other hand, other teams needing RH power might pop up due to injuries or unsuspected penant races.) It would suck, as you mention, if Sexson collapses/breaks and we are stuck with absolutely no production for his final contract year, so I suppose that is a risk worth avoiding.
If Wladimir Balentien reduced his K rate by like 40%, I’d love to see him on the big club. He’s a good defender, he has a great arm, and he has sick power.
Well, here’s the problem with Wlad – the strikeouts are a byproduct of the approach that yields the power. If the strikeouts go down, so do the home runs. They’re tied together.
It’s like trying to find fat-free beef that tastes good. The fat makes the beef taste good. Lose one, lose the other.
And he’s not good defensively, either.
I don’t really understand what a lot of you guys view as the mission statement of the M’s. It seems to me that you want to punt every year, before that is a necessary. You are already giving up on the season. Lets remember that St. Louis just won the World Series with a 500 team. Anything can happen once you get in the playoffs, with the M’s budget they should be able to strive for the playoffs every year, and punt at the deadline when necessary. I for one have not quit on the 2007 season. And considering the fact that Oakland is getting a new stadium, I am looking at these next couple of years as a good time to go for it. If you trade Sexson and get Drew that is fine, but he is to good to just give away for nothing.
Dave,
Do wither SF or Baltimore have players that could help us now that they would be willing to part with? I’m thinking of pitching in particular since I’m afraid that any salary space freed by trading Sexson would just lead to a horrible contract for Eaton.
I don’t really understand what a lot of you guys view as the mission statement of the M’s.
Build a winning organization, year in and year out, by making smart decisions and leveraging our strengths over the competition into a sustainable advantage.
It seems to me that you want to punt every year, before that is a necessary.
Right, because suggesting that the organization trade for Manny Ramirez is clearly a sign of wanting to punt the season.
If you trade Sexson and get Drew that is fine, but he is to good to just give away for nothing.
He’s not that good, and he’s easily replaced.
#25
Moving Sexson does not really give up on the season. As Dave wrote a couple weeks ago, finding near-Sexson level production at 1B is fairly easy. There is the chance that Sexson goes nuts this year and has a career year, which would beat replacing him with decent and available options, but more likely he is only a bit above replacement level and at a much higher cost. Moving him and finding using an unspectacular replacement will not hurt the M’s all that much.
Or what Dave just said, much more concisely.
If they do decide to trade Sexson, I think it is more likely that they will use the money to pay somebody like Eaton to a 4/$36M. I would still rather pay $28M to Sexson over two years than get stuck with that.
Bavesi seems to be concentrating on the three open rotation spots right now, although I would like to think that they learned something from the Washburn contract.
Do wither SF or Baltimore have players that could help us now that they would be willing to part with? I’m thinking of pitching in particular since I’m afraid that any salary space freed by trading Sexson would just lead to a horrible contract for Eaton.
Baltimore and SF both have a significant amount of depth in young starting pitching. Baltimore probably has more young pitching than any team in baseball.
The Orioles aren’t going to give up Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, or Adam Loewen, but beyond that, they’ve got guys like Hayden Penn, Brandon Erbe, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Jim Johnson, and Pedro Beato. They also still have the rights to Rodrigo Lopez, who I’ve championed here before. If the Orioles have anything going for them, it’s starting pitching.
The Giants don’t have the same kind of excess, but they have some depth. With Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris, Jonathan Sanchez, and potentially Tim Lincecum as their rotation in the not too distant future, they’re not lacking for starters. That makes almost every other pitching prospect in their system available, and it’s not completely out of the question that they’d part with a guy like Sanchez.
So, Dave… Would you consider Sexson to the Orioles for R. Lopez + one minor league arm a successful trade, or would you want more than that?
I was not talking to you Dave, and would be all for ramirez, drew or a good package…I am refering to the people that want to do nothing this year and focuss on 2008. I was with you in agreeing that the M’s were not out of the playoff race in June of this year, and they should not give up. Obviously it didnt work out this year and maybe they should have gotten rid of Meche. But I am sickened when I hear people giving up before this year has started.
I’d trade Sexson to the Orioles for some crab dip. Getting Lopez and another live arm would be a steal.
mmmmm Crab dip
The Orioles didn’t seem to push for Carlos Lee very hard, could that mean they possibly gave up early and have started exploring a trade?
The Orioles offered 5/90. I’d call that pushing pretty hard.
I’m not usually as die hard about good contracts/bad contracts but both this one and the Juan Pierre contracts are pretty amazing. Even if you looked at this in the most simplest terms Carlos Lee is what a 5th or 6th round fantasy baseball draft pick?? Those guys aren’t supposed to make $17million a year.
Also, if you are an Astros fan how do you get behind this signing when you know that if the Astros had been willing to pay this type of money two years ago they could have at least signed Carlos Beltran.
As a baseball GM your best skill shouldn’t be trying to figure out which player is the best bargain it should be knowing which players are the best players to overpay for…since it appears that most players are going to get overpaid.
The other thing is…Carlos Lee doesn’t have a last name that starts with a “B.” How could the Astros be so blind to that super-relevant factor to some of their recent success.
Which contract is the bigger albatross? Soriano’s or Lee’s?
Lee, by a mile. Soriano could theoretically play center and is very likely to age better.
38: The Beltran comparison is pretty apt. Where were the Cubs and the Astros last year, when they could have had a legitimately great talent like Beltran? Instead they’re getting second tier players like Soriano and Carlos Lee. And next year or the year after that, when new top tier players come onto the market, they won’t be able to pursue the way they’d like, because of their continuing massive commitment to such players. (This is one of the reasons I never worry too much about the ginormous contracts Houston keep giving Clemens. Even if his arm finally falls off, they’re not actually out that much money compared to some of the silliness flying around this year.)
#39: yes but his ne middle name qualifies him……. BLING
42 – Beltran wasn’t available last year. It was two years ago. In addition to that, the Cubs and the Astros both made very aggressive offers to Beltran at that time.
44: Correction noted. I stand by the ‘they’ve hamstrung themselves in pursuit of future true top-tier talents’ part.
Wladamir Balentien = Wily Mo Pena.
That Lee contract is horrid.
I assume that Dave means that getting Lopez + Live arm being a steal would involve the Orioles picking up the entirety of the contract. If we still agreed to pay a portion of the contract, we should get more.
Or am I reading that wrong? Because I would think Sexson’s value to a desperate organization like Baltimore would allow us to shoot the moon.
While I agree that Sexson is easily replaceable, I think what some here are missing on is that when someone, in this case Dave, says Sexson is easily replaceable, it means the entire package.
His value to the team on the field, the room he takes up in payroll, the effect he has on other players’ talents. Everything.
For 14 million, even in this market, the Mariners can snag an average bat to play left or first and sign a pretty useful starting pitcher and still have money left over.
The Mariners will NOT be able to just go out and get the .850+ OPS bat to replace Sexson, at least not this year. But that doesn’t mean, in the long-term view, that trading Sexson for kids isn’t a good idea. It is.
As far as Bavasi is concerned, however, he’s going to need to know he can replace the production in the lineup before he ships Sexson out of town, unless he can convince Howie and company that it’s worth another .500ish season just to stay away from the crappy contracts they’ll have to dish out or take on in order to win in 2007.
Does anyone have a line on Lee’s 2006 UZR rating? Pinto’s 2006 PMR indicates he’s about -15 runs (actually Dunn was basically only -7; R. Johnson was +24 and ManRam ws -30).
Using the PMR data, that would mean Lee’s true value would roughly be 98 runs (THT:113 RC in 2006; so 113-15=98) which is probably a little over two wins above replacement for a NL LFer (about 80 RC in Lee’s 614 AB????). $17M for maybe 2.5 wins seems insane. Am I setting replacement level too high???? (average 2006 NL LFer: OBP=.359; SLG=.478 so rough justice RC=.359*.487*614*.80)
Also, I’ve been thinking alot about defense lately. Dave, or anybody really, i’m finding it a bit hard to swallow that a leftfielder could give up 15 runs let alone 20 runs like its been suggested Dunn is good for (I think his 2006 UZR was actaully -23).
How does a leftfielder get enough chances for there to be a 50 run swing between first and worst? What am I missing here (besides a brain-puh pum pump)?
If you trade Sexson and get Drew that is fine, but he is to good to just give away for nothing.
He’s not that good, but it’s a moot point, since you’re giving him away for $14 million ($28 million over two years) even if you get what amounts to squat in return.
Giving him away for nothing would be releasing him.
Does anyone have a line on Lee’s 2006 UZR rating? Pinto’s 2006 PMR indicates he’s about -15 runs (actually Dunn was basically only -7; R. Johnson was +24 and ManRam ws -30).
It was bad. I don’t think MGL’s published the official number, but he’s called him “terrible defensively” in multiple conversations lately.
Using the PMR data, that would mean Lee’s true value would roughly be 98 runs (THT:113 RC in 2006; so 113-15=98) which is probably a little over two wins above replacement for a NL LFer
He was also a miserable baserunner last year. That’s worth a couple of runs. But yea, 2 to 3 wins over replacement is about right for Lee.
Also, I’ve been thinking alot about defense lately. Dave, or anybody really, i’m finding it a bit hard to swallow that a leftfielder could give up 15 runs let alone 20 runs like its been suggested Dunn is good for (I think his 2006 UZR was actaully -23).
It’s pretty easy. Griffey’s even worse than that in center, annually putting up -30 seasons. A flyball is very high risk/reward – it’s often an out or an extra base hit. The balls on the fringes, where range really shows up, are balls in the gaps and down the lines, which are usually doubles and triples if they aren’t converted into outs.
You take 15-20 flyballs a year that would be outs with an average defender and turn them into doubles or triples, and you’re giving up a lot of runs.
Looks like the market is bearing 10 mill a year for players worse than Sexson (Pierre and Mathews)…So I dont think it is that easy to replace him…a dn their is something usefull in having a big power bat in the middle of the lineup….In theory he is very replaceable but I don’t know if that is the case this year
The reality is that Sexson’s contract is an albatross only if it precludes the M’s from improving the roster. Unfortunately, in spite of the fact that Sexson isn’t a minus player overall, the M’s are still better if he isn’t on the roster simply because we could remove Ibanez from LF if DH or 1B is open.
So, yes, crab dip would be adequate return on Sexson’s removal.
per Ken Rosenthal, Lee’s deal has a full no-trade protection for the first four years, and a limited no-trade the last two…
and, btw, what the heck happened to the Oregon Ducks uniforms?!?
I can’t have the “it’s what the market will bear” argument anymore without my head exploding. It’s just a bad argument.
I wonder if the mess left behind by Dave’s exploded head will resemble crab dip.
They’re the Ducks. What do you expect?
Re: “it’s what the market will bear”…
I certainly hope that your head does not explode, it is the holidays! However, what the market will bear is not something you can dismiss with “it’s just a bad argument”. It is THE ONLY ARGUMENT.
Just because you don’t want to pay $17 million for Soriano or Lee or whomever doesn’t mean that it’s not what they are worth. You don’t have to sign them, and in fact you won’t, because you aren’t paying the market price. Are they overpaid…NO!!! They are paid exactly what they are worth. This is simple supply and damand. You may not value them as highly as someone else, but like I said, if you offer them $10 million and they get $17, you are not going to get the player, no matter how much you complain. As much as I agree that Pierre and Matthews and Lee got more than I would have offered, they got exactly what they were worth in that market.
It’s like telling someone who wants to buy a BMW “BMW’s are overpriced, you should buy a cheaper one”. But there ARE NO cheaper ones, so if they want a BMW they will have to pay what the “market will bear”. I guess you assume that everyone is happy with a focus or something, but that is, in your words, a “bad argument”.
That is also why I cannot understand this absurd “give Richie Sexson away” argument being spewed by so many. If you want a team of all “replacement level” players who hit .260 with 15 homers and 60 rbis, then fine. But you will also have a team that is horrible and that draws less than 1 million fans and has no revenue to spend. What good is saving money that you will not be able to spend because the fan base has dried up? Do people really not understand the value of power hitters and stars and selling tickets? Do people really think that the M’s will spend Sexon’s money on someone else if they only sell 2 million tickets next year? YOU HAVE NO MONEY TO SPEND IF YOU DON’T SELL TICKETS!
I think now my head is going to explode…
Do you at all consider the fact that the owners are very rich…the stock market is at an all time high, and MLB set records for profits this year, so you need to adjust your concept of “market value.”
Sigh. I can’t believe you guys still believe that load of crap.
58: That is exactly right and what people are not considering. If the average payroll is higher with more teams spending, then players will cost more, plain and simple. The M’s may not like it, and we as fans may not like it, but if you want stars you have to pay. Otherwise, your $100 million payroll will soon be a $70 million payroll…
Callin it crap does not make it go away
Do we really have to have this same tired discussion in every single thread involving contract values and/or free agency?
The reasons that these contracts are overvalued have been rehashed time and time again on this site. I’ve personally read detailed explanations on why it’s important to NOT hamper your future payroll with expensive long-term contracts for less-than-good players at least three times from the authors of this site.
Please, help prevent future head explosions (it’s not just the authors either) by doing this community the courtesy of researching WHY people are saying the things that they are about this horrifying free agent market, rather than just spouting up “ur rong lolz the ownerz r rich!”
Also, the stock market’s only at an all-time high if you don’t account for inflation, etc. It’s like not park-adjusting for HRs.
To continue the point by extending the BMW analogy used above:
These contracts are not paying a BMW price in order to obtain a BMW.
These contracts are paying a BMW price in order to obtain a Datsun, simply because some other misguided buyers are willing to pay a BMW price in order to obtain a Datsun.
It’s a very simple concept.
Are they overpaid…NO!!! They are paid exactly what they are worth. This is simple supply and damand.
To me the argument should be are they paid what their production is worth? In other words, what would be the cost of reasonably replacing their *true value* (offensive+defensive runs). Paying a free agent *market value* without considering actual value of the production to me is simply insane. Maybe my view of a player’s worth is biased and naive since I’m still on a learning curve.
However, you’ll never convince me that Lee’s 2-3 wins in the now are worth $17M let alone his production in year 6 of this contract…
the first line of #65 was an attempt to quote….i’m still screwing up the tags here….
64: Ok, I can tell that there is not much room for my point of view on this site (a site I am very much a fan of by the way!). So I won’t waste any more time with the argument that players are worth exactly what they negotiate in free agency.
And just fyi, I only responded to the “my head is going to explode” post…not trying to rehash the whole thing
what the heck happened to the Oregon Ducks uniforms?!?
Nike puked and thought it looked good.
57, I think you are conflating the idea of “what the market will bear” and What they’re worth. The market will obviously bear some inflated prices, but that doesn’t mean the players are worth that money.
Oh boy… White Flag Waving Over Here People! Happy Holidays everyone!
For all of the people that have constantly complained about the J-Wash signing..whom would pick up this year? and how would you fill our 5 spots….Now the same people that said to sit out last year (or sign a no better Millwood)are saying to sit out this year…..Sitting out of the FA market is for the Royals, not the M’s
67 I think another large part of it (on top of what Dave already mentioned to you) is that these contracts not only don’t take length, etc. into account, but they also don’t take defense or repeatable skillsets into account. Lee has terrible defense, so even though his offense may help the team well above average, his net benefit is minimal. Lee’s bat with Ichiro’s defense would be a considerbly better player. Additionally, players like Matthews who had a lucky year landing $50 million contracts is not justifiable in any year. Teams pay $50 mil. because of his stats last year when they could much more easily replace him with a AAA player who, until last year, would have been considered just as valuable as Matthews. Instead, the Angels have locked him in for the next half-decade…
Millwood is way, way better than Washburn. It’s not even close.
“or sign a no better Millwood”
I stopped reading after that.
#71:complained about the J-Wash signing……….(or sign a no better Millwood)
I’m very interested in how you equate Millwood to J-Wash…
Sitting out of the FA market is for the Royals, not the M’s
Interestingly, it’s also for the A’s, Twins, Indians and Cardinals. And they’ve done okay.
The winner’s curse actually requires that the players are being paid more than they’re worth. But they are being paid according to how much the signing team values them, which is what I think you’re trying to say.
But the market is inefficient, and while players like Soriano and Matthews and Pierre and Lee might be grossly expensive, not all valuable players are. Again, look at guys like Emil Brown.
It’s the mid-tier free agents that are overpriced. But just them. The biggest contracts in history (A-Rod, Manny) tend to return good value. And freely available players are often great deals.
It would be useful to plot a graph of value against salary to demonstrate to what extent the two diverge in the middle of the market.
long link
Here is a chart that is worth while….and it says that we have cash.
There’s this thing called a budget. The team has one.
the first line of #65 was an attempt to quote….i’m still screwing up the tags here….
I fixed that for you, Terry.
Re: #67
No one is saying you are a bad person for advancing your viewpoint. We’re not even saying (well, okay, I’m not) that you can’t state your viewpoint.
All that we’re asking is that you take a look over the literal REAMS of discussion there has been, on this site and other excellent baseball sites, about how MLB GMs going utterly crazy and giving Gary Matthews Jr. 5 years and 50 million does not mean that he is WORTH those numbers.
It may mean that they can GET those numbers from certain teams that are willing to overpay for mediocre talent; but it does not mean that every team in baseball, particularly the smart ones, should be prepared to pay that amount for players of that talent level.
#81: Unless it’s being argued that Washburn has been worth his money so far.
#80: thanks!!!
I think that some people in this thread are focusing on the concept of players as opposed to performance. Projected performance is what is being paid for with FA contracts and given the projected performance of the players who have already been signed to contracts this offseason, there quite clearly is not any kind of a real market value that relates performance to contract terms. The idea of some kind of market value is a complete fallacy. It’s a difficult conept to wrap around MLB even when things are fiscally more sane, but right now teams are quite simply not going to be getting what they paid for. Especially in years four, five, six, etc. of these contracts.
84: Indeed. The point you make is well taken. I would contend also that what we are seeing can be analogized to the concept of “goodwill.” When a larger company buys a smaller company, it is not always simply paying the price of all of the revenue generating assets, it often also pays for “soft” value like brand recognition, etc… This would be called “goodwill.”
It seems roughly similar with these players. Unsophisticate teams look at the market that exists, and if a player is perceived as one of the “top” free agents, they may overpay them for the “goodwill” value of demonstrating to their fans they are serious about winning, name recognition that may temporarily fill seats.
Even in a better competitive environment (like the world of M&A) firms are paying these costs. So, to that extent…these costs are technically part of “what the market will bear.” However, smart firms know not to pay too much for these other costs, or they will find themselves cash-strapped and unprofitable. Unfortunately, MLB does not enforce that kind of market discipline on its participants.
I’d hardly say that the A’s have been sitting out of the FA market lately…They bought Frank Thomas and E. Loiaza last year….My point is to wait and see what ted lilly, A. Eaton and Meche get this off-season, I would rather have J-Wash for a couple more years than go longer and as hard for these guys. We got a decent guy last year and we still have 3 spots to fill although they should go in house for at least the 5th spot.
I here Joel Pineiro is available.
Anybody?
if the Mariners do not take some positive action, Ichiro will be gone by the end of the year…
#87: Don’t even joke about that. We’re in no nood.
Or even “mood.”
[long link]
I’ll admit, I only gave this discussion a cursory glance, but I have to agree with Dave one hundred percent. The argument that this is all just what what the bear will market is perhaps the stupidest argument I have ever heard.
First of all, which bear are we even talking about here? Winnie the Pooh? Unlikely. Teddy Ruxpin? Even less likely — he is a ROBOT. The only logical assumption you can make is Yogi Bear, given his likeness to the Yankee great who battled mental retardation to become one of the greatest catchers of all time.
Secondly, what is this supposed bear even trying to market? Carlos Lee? Why would a BEAR want to market CARLOS LEE? Have you even tried to imagine Carlos Lee with no shirt on? Two words: man boobs. He’s not exactly the ideal male model. Seeing him marketed on the glossy paper of some fashion magazine isn’t exactly going to make the bear’s product this holiday season’s must have item.
It’s what the bear will market? Stupid.
Just plain stupid.
oddly enough, I think the Yankees are even sitting out the FA market so far this year…
#56– it sort of looked like Ducks that had been run over by ATVs.
Participation for participation’s sake is not good management. There is no reason the Mariners are obligated to go out and sign one of these outrageously priced FAs.
However, Bavasi is in a quandry, as he has basically been told that this season is do-or-die, and so he needs to somehow make this team good enough to compete, and now, or he follows Hargrove out the door in October 2007, sooner if things break very badly.
Meanwhile, in this market, you’re looking at paying $15-20 million per season, for at least 3-5 years, for the good FAs.
I would not want to be in Bavasi’s shoes right now. I don’t think there is a right move he can make that makes all sides happy, and/or put this team in shape to contend.
#86: I’d rather have Eaton at 3 yr and $24M than be on the hook for the washburn’s final three years….
Anyway….back to Lee and his value…
BP has assigned Lee a VORP of 47 for ‘06 (Mil: 27.2; Tex: 20.0). That’s bugging me because from what I can tell (or at least from what my snazzzy spreadsheet is telling me), his VORP with Texas is about 8 runs higher than it should be…. While cheking my spreadsheet, I’ve nailed BP’s VORP values right on the head for about 6 other guys so I’m wondering what gives with Lee and Texas. Eight runs isn’t a trivial discrepancy.
Re 93,
That’s not odd. The Yankees rarely partake in excessively stupid free agent signings. They’ve had their moments, but it’s not as if they’re always overpaying for free agents just to acquire them. You could argue Johnny Damon’s contract as being bad, Carl Pavano’s, Kyle Farnsworth’s, or Jaret Wright’s, but of those I would only nail them for Wright’s (and even then, it was the same contract Estaban Loaiza got).
Most of their large contracts are either trades where they took on ANOTHER GM’s ridiculously stupid contract or extensions of their own talent.
Some things to consider about a Sexson trade.
-Money is saved. Which is kind of like adding wins in itself. However with the market being what it is now, I highly doubt we’d add 2007 wins by spending Sexson’s 14m elsewhere this offseason (assuming that cash was spent on free agents).
-But what about having that 14m next offseason? Certainly, thats valuable. But to be honest, I’m guessing next offseason will be just as out of control as the last few have.
-Ichiro is a free agent next offseason. I doubt we could get him to sign an extension barring a 2007 breakthrough or by having an impact offseason right now. If he hits the open market, he’s gone. Some of you might think thats a good thing. Personally I wouldn’t want to see that. If we do trade Sexson, we need to make sure we make other deals to improve the 2007 club, and not just simply unload him, whether that be trading for Ramirez, or whoever.
-I personally do not think Sexson’s on field performance is easily replaceable. Honestly, I think this deserves its own post, where Dave outlines several feasible, cheaper replacements to Sexson and shows with stats how there is no runs lost.
I do think we should trade Sexson. Just not for crab dip. And only if it allows for impact trades (like say trading for Ramirez or a young, highly valued starting pitcher).
#97: Actually USSM just had a GREAT thread on replacing Sexson.
Personally, I wouldn’t trade Sexson for crab dip either…. I prefer clam chowder…
The Loiaza contract is looking pretty good right now.
So, everyone who says that the M’s need to sign someone to a stupidtastic deal:
How many playoff appearances have Chan Ho Park or Mike Hampton brought their teams? Darren Deifort? Jeff Cirillo? Hell, even A-Rod hasn’t exactly been money for his teams- and his deal was actually justifable at the time (if not so justifiable now as he’s gone from All-Universe SS to “eh’ 3B).
Teams need to make astute trades AND astute FA signings to contend. It’s very difficult to make astute signings in a market where people are being stupid with their money (keep in mind that our big FA signing in the 2000-2001 offseason, while everyone else was being insanely stupid with their cash, was Bret Boone, for ONE YEAR- a deal many people panned at the time, plus getting Ichiro for a reasonable contract as part of his bid). All Dave is suggesting is we should zig if everyone else is zagging if we want to tap undervalued potential…and hanging back from signings in this market is the best way to do that.
I suspect Kei Igawa might be on our list, who’d make me pretty happy compared to the Lilly/Eaton/Meche axis (younger and likely to be better). Maybe him, Schmidt, and we flip Sexson for crab dip and pull in Manny (do they eat crab dip in Boston?). I’d be thrilled with that and would call it good.
+It’s like telling someone who wants to buy a BMW “BMW’s are overpriced, you should buy a cheaper one”. But there ARE NO cheaper ones, so if they want a BMW they will have to pay what the “market will bear”.+
He’s right. Players are paid exactly their market value. Every time. It’s a tautology.
However, if you tell someone who wants to buy a BMW, “BMWs are too expensive. You can get the same great handling, mileage, and driving experience for far less by buying a Lexus,” you’re sharing useful information. Does your friend want to buy the BMW or the excellent driving experience?
As a fan, I hope my team’s management is buying future wins. I believe that the Astros, Dodgers, and Angels paid much much more for the future wins represented by Lee, Pierre, and Matthews than those wins cost to acquire by other means – even as the average cost per win rises throughout the majors in the years to come.
Could I be so far wrong about the future cost of wins? Wrong enough that Lee and Soriano’s (and Sexson’s) contracts are worthwhile? Possibly. Wrong enough that Pierre and Matthews’ contracts are worthwhile? Not unless the major league minimum salary is raised to 6 or 7 million.
On another tangent. Companies do pay premiums for smaller companies which they attribute to “Goodwill.” Two points about that.
1) The acquiring company believes it can convert that goodwill into revenues in the not-too-long-term (or else they wouldn’t bother).
2) Acquiring companies as a group consistently underperform the market in the several years after making their acquisition (they’re evidently wrong more often than they’re right about the fungibility of the goodwill purchased).
I’d love to see the M’s trade Sexson and Washburn. I don’t think it’s very likely.
Whatever happened to an impending Reed deal?
How about Jeremy Reed’s performance?
Instead of trading Richie Sexson to the Baltimore Orioles or the San Francisco Giants for a couple of above-average pitching prospects, I’d rather see Bill Bavasi attempt to deal Sexson and Jarrod Washburn to the New York Yankees — without the Yankees receiving any monetary compesation from the M’s, of course — for nothing more than left fielder Melky Cabrera.
Subsequently thereafter, Bavasi should attempt to trade Ben Broussard to the O’s for starting pitcher Rodrigo Lopez; Lopez would undoubtedly bolster the M’s currently undermanned rotation. Furthermore, in lieu of either Sexson and Broussard at first base, the M’s could sign a defensively apt, yet offensively inept player like Doug Mientkiewicz to one-year, $2,000,000 contract.
With all things considered, those’d be a set of shrewd, cost-efficient moves.
Nah, instead of bigtime moves, the Mariners today signed Willie F Blooqmuist to a contract extension, locking him up for 2008. Yeah, we were all worried they’d let the scrappy utilityman get away…
#98, I believe you are refering to the Sexson Albatross thread posted almost two weeks ago? The thread does a good job explaining why Sexson is a poor value, but it does not outline players that would put up at least Sexson’s on field performance (850 OPS, or 3 wins or whatever) that are available and cheap and easy to get. I’m not suggesting they do not exist, but I would really like to see a list of realistic possibilities there.
I would like to unload Sexson’s contract like most of you. I just don’t want to downgrade the 2007 team to do it.
How about Sexson and Soriano for Manny? Would Boston bite?
#38
dude,
signing carlos lard for 6 years at 17 mill a year was bad. b-a-d BAD. unless they really only care about the first 2 or 3 and are writing off the rest as lost money and an excuse to not spend more because there is no “flexibility” we’re gonna be sorry for a long time. the lee contract is the stupidest one of the year by a LONG shot. and you talking to a devout astros fan here you know… and i was laughing at the cubs for paying soriano for 8 years. well, shut my mouth…
as for beltran
i’m REAL touchy on that subject just like every stros fan not in the media. that SOB didn’t never mean to sign with houston. he had a contract for a book called “my first year in pinstripes” before new years day, when the stros front office was still trying to see him and boras was making excuses to keep us away while begging the yankees to sign him to a below market contract. then they came up with that lame **** about a no trade AFTER beltran had already agreed to play with the mets. so please don’t tell me it was about no money in houston. he wanted to go to new york. period. gerry hunsicker had him all figured out and mclane was too dumb to listen.
anyhow dave,
look at sexon like this – at least you CAN trade him. but to baltimore? the organization that turned down lidge, everett, ensberg and burke, yeah ALL of em, for miguel tejada???!!! who needs a 1B with his stats who is gonna pay that kind of money? well, actually, the giants!!! and i think richie is old enough to play there now…
and honest i am not no hypocrite for writing about what the players are wirth. i guess carlos lard IS “worth” more than lance berkman for the simple reason that he found a dumdum willing to pay him. and oh yes i know he will almost certainly not be worth half of that in a few years
As a die hard OSU Beaver fan, I’d like to thank those that took time out of their day to poke fun at Oregon’s ghastly uni’s which are only matched in their hideousness by the Lee and Soriano bloated contracts.