Your 2007 Mariners
A random sketch of how this off-season remains to be played out, presuming the M’s have about $20m in free agent money to work with this year. Because what with the sun out, I figured you might not be depressed enough.
C-R – Kenji Johjima
1B-R RICHIE SEXSON!
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Yuniesky Betancourt
3B-R Adrian Beltre
LF/DH-L Raul Ibanez
LF/DH-L Luis Gonzalez
CF-L Ichiro!
RF-L Chris Snelling
C: Johnson/Rivera/whoever
UT: WFB
UT: Morse
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jason Schmidt ($15m a year! Heavily back-loaded, too!)
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Jamey Wright or some equally unattractive option
SP: Baek/whoever
Closer: Putz
RPs: standard assortment of the good, cheap, and Julio Mateo.
Notes:
– Yup, 90% chance Sexson not going anywhere, much as we’d like that.
– Doesn’t have to be Luis Gonzalez. Pick your old overpriced team-player chemistry-adding left-handed sock of choice. Cliff Floyd? Why not. Ryan Klesko? Nope.
– Seattle’s still the favorite to sign Schmidt, but the question is how high is the bidding going to go and how heavily can they back-load a contract to try and squeeze him and one other scrubby pitcher and scrubby LH bat into this year’s acquisitions?
Consequences:
This team’s not much better than the 2006 version. If at all. If not worse.
There’s even more dead salary in future years for some even worse players.
I don’t even want to do a ballpark won-loss projection, to be honest. Writing his has depressed me.
I wish they’d have a rebuilding year. Cash some veterans for prospects and get ready for a time when we can compete.
FWIW, before Spiezio’s head asploded, he was thought of as ‘a good clubhouse guy’
I keep wavering between ‘there’s no FAs to sign, they’ll think they have to keep Sexson’ and ‘there’s no FAs to sign, now they have to trade Sexson’…
So what is Broussard’s status? He extended one year with Cleveland in January and avoided arbitration. Is he therefore arbitration eligible with the M’s for 2007 if they don’t negotiate something with him?
Yes, Broussard is eligible for arbitration. He’ll be a FA after 2008, AFAIK.
I know there were other reasons to not signing Andrew Miller, like not wanting to piss off Selig by exceeding slot money. But I think of how they could have had him for maybe six million, and look at the awful pitching options that money buys in the current market. The decision to go with Morrow instead seems even more penny wise and pound foolish.
Actually, I think the main reason Miller was pitching last season was because it was in his contract. I’m not sure whether he’d be the best option to rush out into the rotation in 2007.
Anyway, he would have been nice to have.
The whole lineup starts to look more appealing with liberal use of punctuation (Ichiro!) or a self-explanatory middle initial (Willie F. Bloomquist).
No way Richie Sexson merits the ! (or all caps, they should be reserved for FELIX HERNANDEZ), but imagine him in, say, parentheses(!) We go into spring with designated hitter Luis Gonzalez? Fourth starter Jamey #@*&! Wright.
Otherwise, it’s going to look awfully familiar. Do we really have to play this out to see that it plays out the way we know it plays outtt,j,h ,.mb.m ,.m Sorry, fell asleep on the keys.
Don’t mean to go OT, but [deleted, off-topic]
PS–I agree that Miller wouldn’t have been someone we could have counted on for 2007, or at least most of the season. But he sure would have been sweet for 2008
Using Mariner logic, they probably expect Ibanez to hit 45 HRs next year, Betancourt to challenge for the AL batting title, Gonzo/Floyd to be their Frank Thomas, and Washburn to turn into “3.20 Washburn” again.
[ot]
DMZ:
I don’t think any team will make them an offer they think will both improve the team and be something they can sell to the restless public as improving the team. If trading Sexson makes them look bad and carries a risk they won’t be redeemed publicly that season, they’re not going to do it.
I believe one of the USSM authors once said something to the effect that good organisations don’t make roster/management decisions based upon fan sentiment/approval. I’m sorry that I can’t remember the author (was it you?) or exact comment but assuming the sentiment has been correctly quoted/attributed, what should we read between the lines in your statement above?
[ot]
It would appear you’ve already figured out what to read between the lines.
hey yellowmoth, that’s what people said all THIS season (hargrove will be gone).
you realize of course, hargrove is guilty of very poorly managing what he was given, but it’s bavasi who gave him what he got to work with.
And, for everyone who continues to insist that Sexson’s not an albatross, the Orioles re-signed Kevin Millar to a 1 year, $2.75 million contract. In other words, they’re paying Millar 20% of what Sexson will earn in 2007, and they have no commitment for 2008.
2006:
Sexson – .280 EqA, 24.9 VORP, +14 RCAA
Millar – .277 EqA, 15.5 VORP, +7 RCAA
On a per at-bat basis, they were basically equals. Sexson gets the advantage for quantity of at-bats, being younger, and having a better skillset.
But for 2007, the difference between Sexson and Millar is probably one win. Two at the most. The M’s are paying an $11.25 million dollar premium for that difference, plus the ’08 commitment.
When the Orioles are outsmarting you, something is wrong.
Couldn’t you expect better performances from some of the younger guys on the roster? I wouldn’t be surprised if Yuni and Lopez have better years in ’07 at the plate. Adrian Beltre and Kenji could perform better as well. Plus you have Doyle playing on a regular basis.
Then looking at the starting rotation, I believe Felix is going to have a better year, Washburn will be the same, Schmidt’s an improvement over Piniero, Meche, other. The other two spots are pretty scary, but still the starting rotation isn’t much worse than last year’s.
I’m not ready to give up on the ’07 campaign just yet.
I just didn’t want to put words in someone’s mouth…
Defensively the above roster looks pretty good (PMR):
1b: Sexson -5.0
2b: Lopez +15.9
ss: Bettie +20.2
3b: Beltre +4 (’05)
LF: Gonzo/Ibanez -1.1/-11.3
CF: Ichiro +19.9 (per 367)
RF: Snelling ? (+1,000,000?)
Reed seems to be on his way out given Snelling and the potential trade that was alluded to recently on USSM. Wouldn’t it make some sense to give Reed a chance in left given it is such an important defensive position at Safeco. Basically at this point Gonzalez is looking like roughly a win over replacement any way so in the very least, splitting left between Ibanez with Reed instead doesn’t seem like that big of a risk. The payoff could be nice if Reed capitalized on the chance. Reed seems better suited for left to me. Maybe he could be a +5 defender? But importantly, his bat could finally live up to its promise if given more PAs.
Anyway, I don’t see any upside in Gonzalez.
Dave, Rotoworld thinks the O’s need a left-handed bat to platoon with Millar. What’s the chnace we can swap Broussard, etrc. for some of that young pitching talent?
There’s no guarantee that Doyle will play on a regular basis. At least as long as Hargrove is managing, he’ll be looking for alternatives.
I disagree. I think Doyle proved himself at the plate in ’06 and if he puts together a solid Spring outing it will be impossible for Grover to ignore him.
Dave, Rotoworld thinks the O’s need a left-handed bat to platoon with Millar. What’s the chnace we can swap Broussard, etrc. for some of that young pitching talent?
Baltimore is actively shoppping Rodrigo Lopez for a bat.
Don’t know the asking price, but with all the bullpen signings it’s highly unlikely the Orioles will bring him back. I doubt he’ll be nontendered — they’ve already said they’ll offer him a contract — but there is about a 99% chance he’s in another uniform to start next season.
I know there is a lot of negative feelings about Sexson but I have to ask, isn’t there a spill-over effect on others in the line-up when Richie is hitting well (obviously the key to this whole question)? I mean, doesn’t a line-up with Sexson seem more formidable to a pitcher than with somebody like Kevin Millar? And because with RS there is always the threat of the long ball, serves up better pitches to those around him to avoid walks and the multi-run HR. I know there will be those that say last year, pitchers were walking the hitter in front of Sexson to get to him…but I hope (and pray) that was an abberation and the second half RS will come to bat more often next year.
Is there a comparative study that looks at the averages of hitters in front of good power hitters verses weaker hitters?
No one has yet found any evidence of a significant protection effect.
You’re welcome to take a crack at it, though.
Is there a comparative study that looks at the averages of hitters in front of good power hitters verses weaker hitters?
Many studies have been done on the concept of protection. Their conclusions have varied from “it doesn’t exist” to “it might exist, but the impact isn’t very large”.
Basically, if its a factor, it’s not a big one.
So basically does this sum up current thought on lineups?
1. batting order doesn’t matter per se,
2. there is no evidence for a protective effect,
3. line up does matter though because it determines who gets the PAs and defensive outs.
Batting order matters a little bit, essentially because the hitters at the top of the order get more chances than the guys at the bottom. That adds up.
There is a lot of evidence that suggests that protection is vastly overstated.
Couldn’t you expect better performances from some of the younger guys on the roster? I wouldn’t be surprised if Yuni and Lopez have better years in ‘07 at the plate.
What more would you expect out of Betancourt?
As for Lopez, I guess it will somewhat hinge on whether he still feels that he is better doing what he did in the second half.
Adrian Beltre and Kenji could perform better as well. Plus you have Doyle playing on a regular basis.
I think we have a good idea of what Beltre will be like, but sure, he could hit a little better. It’s pretty tough for anyone to say what Johjima will follow up with – but wouldn’t you say he’s equally (if not moreso) likely to fall back than to improve?
Of course, having Snelling for a whole year would be a huge improvement.
What if Ibanez falls apart or simply reverts back to what his common production is? What if Sexson blows for half the year?
What if Johjima gets hurt and we’re stuck with Rivera Major League Catcher?
What if Ichiro gets hurt?
What if Beltre gets hurt?
There’s seriously no depth and a lot more question marks than I think most people would admit to.
Then looking at the starting rotation, I believe Felix is going to have a better year, Washburn will be the same, Schmidt’s an improvement over Piniero, Meche, other. The other two spots are pretty scary, but still the starting rotation isn’t much worse than last year’s.
Sure, Schmidt’s an improvement over Pineiro. He’s probably a little better than Meche too, at least in 2007. So take him a little over Meche and replace Pineiro with AAA fodder. Then replace 2/3 of a season of Moyer with more AAA fodder. I contend that it’s a worse rotation.
On lineups, I’d add that there’s very little evidence to support a significant protection effect, but I don’t think that means lineups shouldn’t be built to avoid having slow guys clogging the paths ahead of fast guys, ground-ball machines behind slow guys who get on base a lot, and so on: there are many ways the lineup can effect the game that isn’t at all related to bottom-line hitting performance of the batter.
Prediction for 2007, which I will not be watching until proven wrong: Ichiro will not re-sign unless the team contends for a while and finishes out of the cellar.
Sounds like the M’s won’t even get Schmidt, as the Cubs may have offered him 3/45.
If it’s true… WTF is up with the Cubs? Where the hell is all this money coming from? I thought Tribune was shopping them; are they not?
They are on the block, which gives them a Gillick-like freedom to spend for today and not worry about the 3-year outlook.
Seems like a weird financial philosophy. I mean, you’re taking what will be a $500-700M sale and burdening it with $200M+ in backended salary.
It is the Cubs, but if you’re about to drop $600M on a baseball team with a park that will likely need $50M in capital improvements just to keep it from falling down, wouldn’t $200M in undeferable, irreducable salary commitments between now and 2013 make you think about whether it was really worth the byzantine financial deals with the devil you’re going to have to make to acquire the team?
OTOH, it is the Cubs, with a built-in international following and hundreds of millions in TV and merchandise money flowing in. They’re probably the most affordable globally marketable team out there — in any sport anywhere in the world. So, it probably doesn’t matter that you’re looking about $1B in sales cost and salary/capital investment, because you’re still going to break even at the very least over 5 years, and if you don’t you can flip the team and make a tidy profit that way.
think of it as ‘curb appeal’…
Better yet, you can write off the goodwill over the first five years of ownership and reap a humongous tax benefit. This alone makes team ownership profitable for almost every fat cat who buys a team – for the first five years.
That tax break has changed significantly.
This is a better team than 2006
1b- son
2b Lopez (improves)
ss- betancourt!! (improves)
3b- Beltre! (Better than 05 and 06)
lf- Ibanez
cf- Ichiro!
rf- Snelling!
Dh- free agent (Trot Nixon, Cliff Floyd, anyone)
Bullpen
putz
Soriano
mateo
huber
others