-
Give to the 2008 Dave Scholarship
Only days left! Help Dave in his quest for an economics degree! Now!
-
Buy the book
The Cheater's Guide to Baseball
"Derek Zumsteg should be ashamed to have such comprehensive knowledge of the history of cheating in baseball. Pete Rose gave me two to one odds this book would become a classic." -- Allen Barra, author of The Last Coach: A Life of Paul "Bear" Bryant
M’s add a pitcher - really!
This isn’t going to show up in the local dailies, and no one in town is going to care, but the M’s have signed a pitcher who has a legitimate chance to help them in 2007.
Okay, I know what you’re thinking - he’s 29 and has a career 5.31 ERA in 83 innings in the majors. To which I respond, so what? It’s 83 innings.
Justin Lehr is a guy who deserves a shot and has never gotten one. He’s never going to be an all-star, but he’s got a skillset that works in the major leagues; groundballs and strikeouts.
He threw 112 innings in the rotation for Nashville this year and had a GB rate of 50.1%. His Triple-A G/F rate is the same as Felix’s was when he was in Tacoma. This wasn’t a one time thing, either, as Lehr has a long tradition as a groundball guy. However, he’s not a one tricky pony like Sean Green - Lehr’s got decent enough secondary stuff and solid command, allowing him to post a 31/90 walk to strikeout ratio. His walk rate and strikeout rates were better than average in the Pacific Coast League, and for a heavy ground ball pitcher, that’s rare.
Lehr lacks an outpitch and he’s spent most of his career in the bullpen, but the Brewers were onto something when they decided to stretch him out in their Triple-A rotation. He doesn’t have the dominant stuff to be an end-game reliever, but his sinkerball has enough movement to get him through 5 or 6 innings a game. If you want to see the prototype of this type of pitcher, check out Clay Hensley, who gave the Padres 200 good innings in the rotation last year by just throwing his sinker over and over.
Justin Lehr, on a minor league contract, is a terrific signing. He’s better than Cha Baek or Jake Woods, and as a non-guaranteed invite to spring training, there’s no risk here, and a decent amount of upside.
Whenever someone tells you that there’s no pitching to be had on the cheap, point to Justin Lehr. Bargains can be found if you look in the right places. The Mariners found one, and now we just have to hope they use him.
Comments
188 Responses to “M’s add a pitcher - really!”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
-
USSM uses and recommends
Yay! Potentially undervalued commodity! May he do better than Dan Reichert.
I hope he works for us!
…The Mariners found one, and now we just have to hope they use him.
Yeah, that’s sort of a big ‘if’ there, isn’t it. Nice to see them do SOMETHING potentially good. I just won’t count on Hargrove and Co. to look at this signing in the same vein that a lot of others ’round here do…
It’s a step in the right direction, although, with Grover in command, I have no confidence that he’ll be given a fair shot. One or two bad innings in spring trainging and that’ll be it for him.
sweeeetness. And yeah, but we won’t use him.
Wow. M’s interested in Luis Gonzalez.
Derek was right.
Plus the nickname! Panzer Lehr!
Much better than paying someone 10 million dollars a year to lose games.
Corco, you’re right. I think they’re actually reading USSM now. They’re all frustrated and out of options so after Bill read on here yesterday that they’d sign Gonzo, he called them up.
“”Seattle called us today…”
Quick Dave, write something great that they should do!
With the M’s playing in Safeco, you would think they could find any number of pitchers that just need to keep it in play and let the team play defense. This looks like one of those! Nice.
His walk rate and strikeout rates were better than average in the International League, and for a heavy ground ball pitcher, that’s rare.
The Nashville Sounds are in the PCL, no?
I know Dave doesn’t think much of Baek (as mentioned in the top message), but he did pitch well. He threw more ground balls than fly balls, he gets some strikeouts, doesn’t walk many, had an OBP of under .300 against him. I think he deserves a good look next season. I wouldn’t automatically dismiss him, I don’t think he’s had enough chances yet.
O frabjous day! Callooh Callay!
The Nashville Sounds are in the PCL, no?
Yea, my bad. Call it a mental block, considering that Nashville is about as close to the Pacific Coast as I am.
I know Dave doesn’t think much of Baek (as mentioned in the top message), but he did pitch well.
Not really, no. His FIP was 5.50 and his xFIP was 5.18. That’s replacement level. He stranded a lot of runners, also known as the Jarrod Washburn Fluke Year Skillset.
He threw more ground balls than fly balls, he gets some strikeouts, doesn’t walk many, had an OBP of under .300 against him.
His GB% was 43.1%, so he wasn’t an extreme groundball guy or anything. His walkrate was below average, and his strikeout rate was right at league average. With that kind of performance, an ERA around 5.00 to 5.25 is what you should expect.
I’m not saying Baek should be released, but he’s definitely inferior to Lehr, and his flukishly low ERA over 40 innings doesn’t change that.
One thing that seems kind of wacky–Lehr had a good GB rate, but his HR rate was pretty high. It might be a fluke, but even in 2005, his HR rate wasn’t much below league average, and this is the second consecutive season that’s seen his HR rate rise.
I agree with everything you said, though. The Hensley comp looks pretty good. And even with a non-stellar 0.80 HR/9 in AAA, Hensley didn’t really have problems with the longball last year, so maybe the HR thing isn’t a big deal.
Does 5.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, for around a 4.85 FIP sound like a reasonable projection for Lehr in a full season as a starter?
Yay freely available talent!
ESPN has him with 46 GB and 41 FB in 2006. Not sure where the 43% came from.
OK, a tiny sample size, and it might be a fluke, but the M’s should check to be sure he hasn’t improved.
One thing that seems kind of wacky–Lehr had a good GB rate, but his HR rate was pretty high. It might be a fluke, but even in 2005, his HR rate wasn’t much below league average, and this is the second consecutive season that’s seen his HR rate rise.
Yea, Lehr’s got a little bit of a homerun problem, which actually isn’t all that rare for groundball guys without top shelf stuff. As we saw with Felix this year, when a GB pitcher misses up in the zone, it often goes a long, long ways.
But one of the big selling points of Safeco Field is that it suppresses home runs, so if that’s Lehr’s biggest flaw, Seattle is exactly where he should want to pitch.
Does 5.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, for around a 4.85 FIP sound like a reasonable projection for Lehr in a full season as a starter?
I think that might be a little on the low end. I’d probably go with something like 5.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 1.2 HR/9 for a FIP around 4.70 or so.
I think on both Baek and Lehr…they’ve had too little time in the Bigs to make a final judgement one way or another.
I’ll play the resident pessimist here, but in Lehr we have a guy who can’t translate GB tendencies into the all-crucial ‘keep the ball in the ballpark’ skill. Compare Sean Green (or Jon Huber’s) HR/9 to Lehr’s: no contest. Lehr was far above the PCL average in HR/9, despite playing in a park that actually depresses HRs (and runs).
While we’re comparing Lehr, check out his hits allowed. I know, I know, some part of this may be related to BABIP, but Lehr’s 2006 BABIP of .322 is right in line w/the league average of .318. Couple that with Lehr’s freakish opponents slugging (that HR rate again), and you’ve got a guy who can get outs, but will give up a lot of runs. It’s not luck, and his walk rate may not allow him to be successful long term (or without putting up consistently amazing strand rates).
Baek’s hit rate and walk rates were substantially lower, which, at least to me, mitigates Baek’s poor K rate. Now, it still scares me that Baek might win a rotation spot out of spring training, but I’d be a bit more confident with Baek in there than Lehr.
Oh, and Lehr has noticeable platoon splits - Righties hit .301/.355/.478 against him last year in the PCL. This does not compare favorably to the league average of .269/.336/.413. That difference in slugging is huge, and pretty worrying for his chances going forward. My bet is that the M’s picked up Lehr as the latest in a parade of potential LOOGYs used to ‘push’ George Sherrill in spring training. Some of these guys actually make the team (Woods), others, not so much (Damian Moss).
Ooops, looks like Mat got in there with a lot of the same arguments… sorry to duplicate.
Lehr’s a righty, Marc, so I don’t think he’s in competition for a LOOGY job. The reverse platoon split is probably a sample size fluke. Research shows it’s very, very rare for same-handed pitchers or hitters to dominate each each other. Besides outliers like Ichiro, lefties beat up on righties and vice versa.
Thanks for this post Dave. I don’t have anything to add (or even ask), but I just wanted to say that it’s for insights like these that I read USS Mariner.
Great. A righty who can’t get righties out. And it doesn’t look like a sample size fluke: check out his splits in the majors.
And while it’s true that many sinkerballers without great stuff give up a lot of home runs, most of them can limit the long ball in the minors. If Lehr can’t, in the minors, in a pitchers park, this seems like a problem
If he didn’t have flaws, he wouldn’t have been available at the cost of a minor-league contract.
I’m ecstatic to see the Mariners take a chance on someone who can turn out to be a useful pitcher that will not leave them saddled with a big contract if his flaws turn out to be too large for him to overcome.
He isn’t on the 40 roster yet and needs to have a solid spring to make the club. With hime we have some depth in the minors now so why is this a bad thing?
I think on both Baek and Lehr…they’ve had too little time in the Bigs to make a final judgement one way or another.
Which is why we use minor league stats and scouting reports to inform our judgement.
Baek doesn’t consistently get past 90 on the radar gun, his offspeed stuff isn’t very good,his peripheral numbers aren’t, either and if you think his Tacoma numbers are something special that will translate to MLB, go look at Ryan Franklin’s career numbers in Tacoma. The fact that Baek had a decent run of games in Seattle means very, very little, and he easily fits in the Halama/Franklin run of marginal 5th starters.
At this point, Dave, would it be safe to say you would just as soon see the M’s try and piece together a rotation around cheaper and unproven guys like Feierabend and Lehr, with Woods or Baek handed the 5th spot, given that the FA market’s ridiculous?
There’s nothing wrong with checking out guys like this. If they don’t work out, what have you lost? As depressing as this off season has been so far, I’m glad they finally did something that may be positive.
Great. A righty who can’t get righties out. And it doesn’t look like a sample size fluke: check out his splits in the majors.
There’s been all kinds of research on this, and there’s very little evidence to suggest that it’s likely a skill problem. There’s a longshot chance it might be, but it’s rare enough that in a case like this, you have to assume it’s not. The sample sizes aren’t nearly large enough to come to that conclusion.
At this point, Dave, would it be safe to say you would just as soon see the M’s try and piece together a rotation around cheaper and unproven guys like Feierabend and Lehr, with Woods or Baek handed the 5th spot, given that the FA market’s ridiculous?
Well, I’d still like to see them trade for Rodrigo Lopez and Angel Guzman to add to that mix, but yea, I’d be fine going into ‘07 with a rotation of Felix, Washburn, and pick three of Lopez/Guzman/Lehr/Baek/Feierabend.
26-
I’m not saying it’s a bad thing. I should’ve made that more clear - this is clearly the kinds of moves that good teams make. They should, in fact, make more of them given the low probability of success for any one of these guys (Dans Wright and Reichert; Damian Moss, etc.). They’re basically free. My point is that he is probably *not* the next Clay Hensley, and that in my mind, he’s not the next Sean Green. He’s better than Mike Flannery, and as a Rainiers fan, I sincerely appreciate that.
Is he better than the minor league FAs the Nationals grabbed? No. But it’s a nice little move, especially considering that the M’s have done well with guys like Huber and Green who sucked before joining the org. Who knows. It may pay off, but I don’t know that I’d say he’s better than Baek. (Woods, eh, it’s sort of a toss-up).
For what it’s worth, there may be something about the break on Lehr’s sinker that makes him more vulnerable against righties than many of his peers. I’m just speculating here, but it wouldn’t necessarily be unprecedented - Kevin Brown, for another sinkerballer example, gave up 21% more homers to righties than lefties for his career.
Reverse platoon splits pretty much don’t exist anywhere, so Lehr’s 2006 numbers probably have a lot of fluke in them, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a guy who’s more balanced between RHB’s and LHB’s than the rest of the player pool.
It may pay off, but I don’t know that I’d say he’s better than Baek.
Park Adjusted Numbers from the PCL this year:
Baek: 2.44 BB/9, 6.32 K/9, 1.32 HR/9
Lehr: 2.72 BB/9, 7.63 K/9, 1.31 HR/9
If you’re going to complain about Lehr’s HR problem, I don’t see how you can ignore Baek’s similar problem.
Is there any chance at a Sexson plus for Bonderman trade happening? How do you all feel about Bonderman anyway?
Is there any chance at a Sexson plus for Bonderman trade happening? How do you all feel about Bonderman anyway?
Uhh, no. Bonderman’s awesome, and Sexson is not.
Yeah, Dave, I can endorse that line of thought, too. My fear is the trade market for anyone who can fog a mirror and throw a ball in the direction of the place is going to be pretty bad too, since the M’s aren’t likely to be the only team spooked by the price tags on free agents- but Lopez and Guzman might be low-profile enough not to demand too much in trade compared to the Garcias, Cains and Vazquez’s of the world
#9: I think its silly to assume they don’t read USSM… thats why I don’t make fun of bald people in posts….
Anyway Dave said this:
Not really, no. His FIP was 5.50 and his xFIP was 5.18. That’s replacement level. He stranded a lot of runners, also known as the Jarrod Washburn Fluke Year Skillset.
I agree those xFIPs are horrid but a guy who just posted xFIPS of 5.04, 4.61 and 5.46 for ‘04 thru ‘06 respectively (granted his lousy ‘06 was masked by a luckily large LOB% and a better than league average HR rate)wants 7 years and >$100M. He might get close to it too… Why does Zito get to post ERAs under four each of the last several years while Baek doesn’t? This is actually a serious question. I think Zito is the most overrated starter on the market. His peripherals suggest he’s replacement level (BB%, K%, flyball tendencies-especially last season but really for several now). What is separating him from actaully being replacement level?
32 -
Right, Jeff - I’ve been trying to think about what might account for this, but for another (closer to home) example, check out Joel Pineiro. We remember that he started off his career getting the first 51 righties, but over the past few years, he’s developed a big reverse split too, and it’s exactly what you mention: a power surge by righties. Over the course of about 2000ABs the last 3 years, Pineiro’s OPS against is about 140 points higher against righties, and he’s given nearly double the home runs (the at-bats against are about even, which seems odd). There’s a precedent here.
Dave, yes, Baek has a homer problem. It’s why he can never be more than a back-of-the-rotation guy. But Lehr combines the homer problem with a general hit problem - he allows more hits and extra-base hits than Baek. This is why his park adjusted OPS-against is 50 points higher, and why his MLE is worse. Baek has a comparable HR problem, but that doesn’t mean he’s not better.
#35: I agree 100% but Detroit also thinks of him as their #3 at best (possibly even their #4). What they did in the WS with their rotation was absurd IMHO. Basically I think they see a surplus of good pitching on their roster and in a loaded system (including our favorite can’t miss draftee from last season) and they think Bonderman may be expendible (kind of like the Angels and Santana-though Santana isn’t close to Bonderman). Maybe Sexson straight up for Bonderman doesn’t work, but is there some wiggle room for a deal bigger deal involving the two as parts and do you even buy my arguement that Detroit would move Bonderman?
But Lehr combines the homer problem with a general hit problem - he allows more hits and extra-base hits than Baek. This is why his park adjusted OPS-against is 50 points higher, and why his MLE is worse. Baek has a comparable HR problem, but that doesn’t mean he’s not better.
You’re willing to trade a strikeout a game for the theory that Baek is better at preventing hits on balls in play than Lehr is?
Really?
Strikeouts and Groundballs? The first ray of sunshine this offseason. Maybe not a great big heap o’ sunshine, but it’s better than another bucket of Hargrove’s-coming-back style icewater.
The Tigers traded Humberto Sanchez for Gary Sheffield, then re-signed Richie Sexson. They made their pitching for hitting trade. They aren’t trading Bonderman for any package including Richie Sexson.
IIRC, Bonderman wasn’t back in the rotation due to disdain, but more to cover Rogers’ problems in places like NY….
#42: to be fair, Sexson is taller.
I’d much rather see this type of signing than an overpriced, long-term contract.
You mentioned that Lehr is a good prospect for pitching at Safeco. How difficult will it be to evaluate him pitching during spring training in Arizona? It is hard to project his results there to his expected results in Safeco?
Dave, if you would be happy going into next season with mixture of 3-5 pitchers. What would you do with the money we have to spend? Can we spend 15mil on Int talent and see if we don’t get stuck in this same situation 5 years from now?
I agree with IdahoFan. I hope that the incessant banter from the press and public about the M’s needing to show the fans that they are “doing something” does not force the M’s to consider signing some slighty better than average player to a superstar contract.
Re: 46
By my estimates, Dave and DMZ have combined to write approximately 37 different pieces this offseason about why it is a bad idea to spend money frivously on FA “talent” and what they would do with the money instead. Seriously, just search the site.
42:
Meaning that Casey == Sexson, in your estimation?
If Lehr sticks on the 25 man roster, the M’s should use the theme song the PBS’s “The Newshour” as his intro music.
#49 — I think Dave meant that they resigned their “Sexson,” the righty power hitter for whom they traded, in this case Sheffield, to a two year extension.
This does give us a ray of hope in what has already become a dark offseason. The question is can they find some more young quality prospect arms to help fill this rotation and can they avoid the few money pit traps that are still out there? I keep reading that the Mariners are the front runners for Schmidt. I thought the Cubs would help us out but it appears he doesn’t want to leave the West Coast. I hope the Padres get a little crazy and sign him. It would be nice to see some more of these Lehr type signings and save the roster budget for midseason moves and future free agents that are actually worth signing. Even if this means another .500 season for 2007 which is probably where we’ll be even if we sign some big money deals this offseason. I like watching the kids develop and every so often you get to watch someone just break out into an allstar (like Putz and Lopez).
Good stuff Dave. This is why I read this site every day, you never know what you might find and USSMariner always has good stuff like this. Rather get a bargain like him then overpay for Eaton, Meche, or someone similar to those two.
51:
Oh, OK. After all the talk about Sexson being terrible, it didn’t occur to me that he’d ever be used as a symbol for Sheffield. I didn’t make that connection.
Anyway, thanks for the explanation. Nice save.
Phil Rogers, on ESPN.com discussing the Mariners’ free agent/roster outlook:
As quickly as this franchise gained luster, it is in the process of losing it.
Free-agent investments in Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson have not paid dividends, and the starting rotation is thin behind 20-year-old Felix Hernandez, who had a 4.52 ERA in his first full big league season.
Ichiro Suzuki is approaching his walk year. It’s hard to picture the Mariners without him, but you wonder whether the promise of Kenji Johjima, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez will be enough to prompt Suzuki to re-enlist if continued losing remains on the horizon.
Free agent Gil Meche could be departing just as he turns a corner in his career. The Mariners opted not to bid for Matsuzaka, targeting Igawa instead, but were badly outbid by the Yankees. One local guy, Eaton, already has spurned the Mariners to sign elsewhere, and there are mixed reports about the interest level of Schmidt, another Washington product.
The rising cost for free-agent pitching could knock the Mariners out of the market. “The free agency (money) has surprised me,” club president Chuck Armstrong told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. “It’s bad, and from what I hear, it may get worse.”
General manager Bill Bavasi, like manager Mike Hargrove under pressure to produce an immediate turnaround, weighs an attempt to reacquire Garcia, whom he traded to the White Sox in 2004.
Uhhhhhhhh……..wow.
#51: I understood him to mean they have already overpaid for production at first… i.e Casey.
They need to sign at least one good FA starter…It would be suicide for the M’s to Go with Felix, J-Wash, and three spare parts. However I wouldnt mind them adding one good starter and going with 2 spare parts, with the idea to add someone good at the deadline if they are in contention….With the short leash on Bavasi, but just being reasonable there is no way they dont sign at least one good guy. I would rather them spend on 1 pretty good starter than getting two average ones.
F-Rod:
Who?
It seems to me that the problem in this FA class is that there aren’t guys that we would consider #1-#3 starters out there for reasonable prices.
Excellent point. There is basically no one we can get that isn’t an anchor a couple of years down the road.
At this point I think you gotta take a chance on Schmidt or Zito…I would have preffered they went after either of the Japanese Sp’s….Or they could get two high risk guys like a Mulder and trade
The only FA pitcher that I was really top-of-mind interested in this offseason was Matsuzaka.
Once it became that it was going to take crazy money to get him and/or he wasn’t interested in playing for the Mariners, I started cheering for the M’s to stay the heck away from this insane free agent market, possibly pursuing a trade or two.
While the KJR type of fan may freak out if the Mariners don’t make a signing splash this offseason, I’d be more than happy to see them say “you know what, the value we can get for our money this year is awful. we’re going to sit on our hands”.
What kind of chance are we taking on Schmidt or Zito? It’s pretty plain that we’re not going to get return on our money after a year or two, and we’re going to have to pay out the ass to get either of them. How does that help the team?
I was amazed yesterday to hear the KJR-iest fan (Mahler) vote for staying away from the free agents & going with ‘the young guys’….
I like a trade for Freddy Garcia and a Mulder type signing….Freddy will can either be resigned, traded or yield a draft pick.
But what do we have to give up for one year of Freddy? I’m not sure if the cost is worth the return.
Give up guys who aren’t gonna help the team blocked infielders, middle relievers, J. Reed, you only need to play 9 players so trade the blocked pieces for a SP
#48, seeing as things change daily in FA I am curious what thoughts folks would have on going forward. Everyone wanted pitching, now nobody wants to overpay for it, so what do you do???? Do we not overspend and take a marginal team into next season? Just curious as I’m looking for some hope here.
Over pay Pettitte for 2 years…
Yes of course…trade Jeremy Reed for Freddy Garcia…I’ve seen that somewhere before!
I like the strategy of “overpaying” for two years (although I view it as just paying)….But that would be a good move
They need to sign at least one good FA starter…It would be suicide for the M’s to Go with Felix, J-Wash, and three spare parts.
Felix and four spare parts?
Well I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on J-Wash being a spare part…And you can put me on record for him having a succesfull season this year.
Define successful.
Now at the contracts pitchers are getting today is Washburn now overpaid?
74, yes. He still sucks. The difference between Justin Lehr and Jarrod Washburn still isn’t 11 million dollars/yr.
12+ wins 190+ innings ERA around 4 probably under 4, Low walk rate
Bender:
If Washburn doesn’t have a complete meltdown and pitches just well enough to fool people into thinking he could have a “successful” 2008, then 2007 will be “successful.”
#75 but would you give Meche the contract Washburn recieved?
Btw I am not saying Meche or Washburn are worth 11 mill a year.
F-Rod are you taking bets on that?
So if we don’t acquire a starter better than Washburn - isn’t it time to trade Ichiro?
What’s the point in having Ichiro for 2007 if we’re pretty much throwing the towel in now
What sucks is that out of the top 10 free agents on ESPN
1. Dasiuke Matsuzaka
2. Jason Schmidt
3. Roger Clemens
4. Andy Pettitte
5. J.D. Drew
6. Julio Lugo
7. Ted Lily
8. Gil Meche
9. Barry Zito
10. Barry Bonds
2 are almost untouchable (Matsuzaka, Clemens)
2 nobody here really likes (Bonds, Meche)
1 We don’t really need (Lugo)
1 is going to get overpayed or resigned and gets hurt too much (Pettite)
1 Is out of our league and would be a bad signing (Zito)
2 could be close to signing with other teams (Meche, Drew)
1. Could be close to signing with us for lots of money, a lot of years, and is too old (Schmidt)
and 1 is somebody I don’t like, is wild but don’t know about anyone else ( Lily)’
So is there any good choices in that list? Not for me.
We’re screwed.
If the FO feels the need to throw big money at someone, let that someone at least be J.D. Drew.
In this market, I’m shocked that GMs aren’t trading like crazy. It looks like the only way to not be contractually screwed, and there’s obviously a bigger talent pool to choose from.
[namecalling]
69 That might be a good trade, but I think Chicago would ask for more. We’ll probably need to throw win a utility infielder that might convert to outfield….someone like Morse, for example - who is blocked by the position players on the roster.
86: It’s too bad we don’t still have Miguel Olivo around - he’d be a perfect third chip to throw in to make Chicago bite.
#86 possibly a backup catcher too
What about Mark Mulder? He would be coming off an injury plagued year which should depress his asking price, and when he was with the A’s he was one of their three stud starting pitchers. Any rumors about Mulder, and could the M’s be a bidder for his services?
Well I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree on J-Wash being a spare part…And you can put me on record for him having a succesfull season this year.
Am I supposed to believe that Jarrod “5.35″ Washburn is not a spare part, if not worse?
That’s xFIP. If you want to go with FIP it’s 4.86.
I’d make a friendly wager that Lehr, given a full season in Seattle, would beat both of those marks.
Strangely enough, a sampling of the pitchers around Washburn?
Lilly: 4.81 FIP
Zito: 4.94 FIP
Lopez: 4.99 FIP
For xFIP Zito’s the only one of those still close, at 5.46. Yikes.
The fact that Gil Meche is included in any discussion of the top 10 free agents this offseason tells me everything I need to know.
What about Mark Mulder? He would be coming off an injury plagued year which should depress his asking price, and when he was with the A’s he was one of their three stud starting pitchers. Any rumors about Mulder, and could the M’s be a bidder for his services?
From what I’ve heard he’s been asking for Eaton-ish money. It’s a lot to give for someone who’s injured, won’t be able to start the year, and has been declining for a few years.
Stay out of any free agent pool that has Meche in the top 10!
86: It’s too bad we don’t still have Miguel Olivo around - he
’d be a perfect third chip to throw in to make Chicagobites.Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk!
Why didn’t we trade Meche this year? Another example of missing the sell high opportunities.
#84– the winter meetings are next week; that may be where the wheeling & dealing comes in….
Why didn’t we trade Meche this year?
The Mariners were only 3.5 GB at the trading deadline, with lots of intradivision games coming up. They needed Meche to make a push for the playoffs. They’ll get some sort of draft pick compensation if/when he signs elsewhere, anyway.
12+ wins 190+ innings ERA around 4 probably under 4, Low walk rate
I took a quick check and found pitchers matching this description according to their 2006 performances. I kinda had to guess on the meaning of “low walk rate” for this definition, so I might be a little off, but here’s who I came up with:
J Santana
C Wang
K Rogers
R Halladay
A Harang
D Lowe
E Santana
J Smoltz
B Webb
E Bedard
C Carpenter
T Glavine
G Maddux
M Mussina
R Oswalt
V Padilla
C Schilling
J Westbrook
B Arroyo
J Bonderman
D Haren
C Lee
A Pettitte
M Cain
J Contreras
J Francis
J Lackey
N Robertson
D Bush
B Myers
C Sabathia
J Suppan
W Williams
These guys all worth the $9m+ a year that Washburn is getting?
Actually, since Washburn didn’t make this list in 2006 and he still got $9m+, you’d think these pitchers would be worth even a little more.
I’m bummed. We don’t have a successful pitcher and there are 33 of them! That’s okay though, Washburn will be successful next year. If he’s not, we can always change the meaning so that he’s part of the club.
Wins? ERA? Sigh.
They haven’t offered Meche arbitration, have they? If you don’t do that, no compensation for losing a free agent.
Wins? ERA? Sigh.
Imagine the sigh I let out looking at all those ubermensch pitchers that we’re missing out on!
We should totally trade for/pick up four more of them to go along with Washburn. Then we can dump Felix, or just put him in long relief or something. He’ll gain a MPH or two and then the Fox tracker will have him throwing 103 MPH fastballs. Besides, his 4.52 ERA isn’t good enough to be successful.
Just remember that if we trade for them we have to renegotiate their contracts to be equal or greater than Washburn’s.
Wins? ERA? Sigh.
And no mention of their “grit factor?”
They haven’t offered Meche arbitration, have they? If you don’t do that, no compensation for losing a free agent.
They have until Dec. 7 to offer Meche arbitration. Given the numbers floating around for what he might get, there’s little chance of not offering arbitration (for fear he accepts).
We should totally trade for/pick up four more of them to go along with Washburn. Then we can dump Felix, or just put him in long relief or something. He’ll gain a MPH or two and then the Fox tracker will have him throwing 103 MPH fastballs. Besides, his 4.52 ERA isn’t good enough to be successful.
You’re putting us on, right? My sarcasm detector didn’t go off, but it might be faulty.
I think we should go after Benito Santiago to be our backup catcher. He’s always a good option.
So if we don’t acquire a starter better than Washburn - isn’t it time to trade Ichiro?
What’s the point in having Ichiro for 2007 if we’re pretty much throwing the towel in now
I don’t know about anyone else but I haven’t thrown in the towel.
There’s no point in trading him now. If no extension is negotiated and the team sucks in July, there will be ample opportunity to trade him then. Why trade him now when we really don’t know if those will prove to be accurate?
They have until Dec. 7 to offer Meche arbitration. Given the numbers floating around for what he might get, there’s little chance of not offering arbitration (for fear he accepts).
Bavasi’s not that stupid. Not sure I can say that about other folks in the front office.
103: You mean “little chance of offering arbitration,” right? Thanks for the Dec. 7 clarification, BTW.
Luis Gonazalez- because it’s not like we have a 25 year old OF who ALSO can take a walk, hit with decent but not great power and play corner OF. No, we need to be sure to sign a 40 year old.
This is slightly better than Carl Everett… but only slightly. He’s pretty clearly falling off the cliff:
Luis Gonzalez runs created, 2002-2006:
7.13
7.82
6.34
5.82
5.48
Richie Sexson, Huge Waste Of 14 Million Smackers last year: 5.91. Ben Broussard? 5.82
If our signings are something like Schmidt at 4 years, 55 million and Gonzalez at 1+1 (easily vestable option) for 6-7, Bill Bavasi is going to be up there with Pat Gillick in ability to do longterm damage to the franchise- because while Pat and Frank Mattox screwed up the farm system, Pat was pretty good at avoiding boat anchor contracts.
My sarcasm detector didn’t go off, but it might be faulty.
Ooooh, that’s a really useful invention!
Luis played at BOB last year too, which concerns me even more.
I’ll beat a dead horse and say that this year’s FA crop is a poor, limited one, and I have no problem with the Mariners playing Beaneball and seeking out low-cost value where they can get it.
Lehr is a great pickup with no real downside. It’d be nice to see him wow the coaches and get into the rotation, but even if not, you’ve got a solid arm in AAA at worst.
More of this, plz. And if the big move of the offseason is signing Luis Gonzalez or Cliff Floyd to troll LF and bat 5th, I’m fine with that given the fiscal insanity of other teams. Let them spend themselves into trouble.
104: I’m sure Josh was being wildly sarcastic, based on his other comments.
108: No, I meant little chance of not offering arbitration. Meche will sign a 3-4 year deal with someone any time between now and a couple of months from now. If that is before Dec. 7, you offer arb (which he cannot accept) and claim your compensation pick. If not, you offer it anyway, even though he theoretically could accept and put you on the hook for a 1 yr/$10M contract. Because he won’t accept arb when he is being offered 3 yrs and $25M.
110: It went off that time.
#97 That 3.5 games back at the trade deadline made us buyers when we really should have been sellers. After trading away Choo and Cabrera we lost major trade bait for this offseason. I think the M’s would have had a much better chance at getting Manny if those pieces were still there to trade.
110: It went off that time.
Much more useful.
Luis Gonazalez- because it’s not like we have a 25 year old OF who ALSO can take a walk, hit with decent but not great power and play corner OF. No, we need to be sure to sign a 40 year old.
This is slightly better than Carl Everett… but only slightly. He’s pretty clearly falling off the cliff
Ahem, not quite. OPS+ in 2004, 2005 and 2006
as of
Everett: 85, 94, 74
Gonzo: 119, 112, 97
Everett was a shell of himself 3 years ago. Gonzo, even granted BOB, is still an effective power bat even given his decline. And he had a K/BB below 1.00 last season (58/69), so it’s not like his bat’s slown down like Carl’s did. Plus, Gonzo put in 550+ ABs each of the last 2 years, whereas Carl couldn’t manage full-time duty in recent years before he came here, and when we gave it to him, he blew.
Luis played at BOB last year too, which concerns me even more.
Yeah, but Safeco likes lefties. What worries me more is the slide. Gonzalez is at an age where he could wake up in a new league one morning and end up doing his Carl Everett “.550 OPS” impression.
Earth to Bavasi: adding declining veterans to a club that hasn’t even broken .500 yet, when there are younger players you could be evaluating who play the EXACT SAME POSITIONS, is 100% the wrong move.
I’m in disbelief that we’re even having these discussions (the year after you sign a veteran LF OF who’s in decline and it flops miserably, you do it AGAIN?), but that’s the problem with Safeco: it makes everyone go “OMGWTFBBQ TEH OFFENSE IS TEH SUXX0R”, when actually, it’s not that bad and not that hard to fix.
#119 Yeah Jurassic Carl and Spiezio and Aurilia. Let’s learn from our mistakes.
Uh Gomez? Carl’s OPS went from 94 in 2005 to 74 in 2006. Gonzo was at 97 last year. Thus my “slightly”. Thanks for making my point for me.
Also, Everett played in 135 games in 2005, 147 in 2003. Yes, 2004 was an injury year for Everett. Oddly enough, the same applies for Gonzo in 2004.
Gonzo is showing declines in isolated slugging and isolated walk rates, too- and I think it’s ridiculous for a team not that close to contention, and with multiple talented or at least useful hitters who AREN’T pushing 40 (Broussard, Doyle, and even Jones or Reed) to cut back their playing time so they can play a 40 year old. This is a KC Royals/Tampa Devil Rays/Baltimore Orioles “hey, let’s sign a veteran so we can fool the fans and oruselves into thinking we’re in contention” move, and it rarely works.
It would be far wiser for the team to hold onto the money, evaluate the kids during the early part of the season, and if it’s June and we have a giant sucking sound at DH or LF but we’re still in contention, spend it on the Trade Deadline Veteran Bat that’s always available at that time of year. The odds are pretty high you’ll get a better player- and you might not NEED the better player if Adam Jones decides this is the year he’s going to do his Mike Cameron impression and turn into a .260/.340/.450 player with great defense, or Doyle turns in some .290/.350/.470 numbers.
Not all declines are made equal, EC. Carl went from somewhat useful to useless. Gonzo went from good to useful. Your comparison implies they are one in the same performancewise. Gonzo would not come to Safeco and crap the bed the way Carl spent 330 PAs doing. One thing I didn’t mention in that comparison is that Carl’s K/BB was well over Gonzo’s, and Carl struck out far more frequently than Gonzo (18.6% of Carl’s ABs ended in K’s compared to 13.3% for Gonzo). Remember Carl’s school zone bat-speed.
If Gonzo was in a similar boat, unable to get the bat around in time, he’d be K’ing like mad himself. The 58 K’s in 586 ABs last year indicates this clearly is not the case.
Gonzo is showing declines in isolated slugging and isolated walk rates, too- and I think it’s ridiculous for a team not that close to contention, and with multiple talented or at least useful hitters who AREN’T pushing 40 (Broussard, Doyle, and even Jones or Reed) to cut back their playing time so they can play a 40 year old. This is a KC Royals/Tampa Devil Rays/Baltimore Orioles “hey, let’s sign a veteran so we can fool the fans and oruselves into thinking we’re in contention” move, and it rarely works.
Bingo.
Think that comments right on the mark, even if you do think Gonzales would be a useful player.
The M’s also signed catcher Jamie Burke and 28-year-old righthander Jamie Cerda to AAA deals.
NOT better than Beak or Woods.
Sorry, this guy is a normall minor leaguer. He should not make the team. He will be designated for assingment this year.
#119 - yeah, but Gonzo is a really, REALLY great guy. I mean, like 60-65% greater than the greatest guy you can think of!
Your comparison implies they are one in the same performancewise. Gonzo would not come to Safeco and crap the bed the way Carl spent 330 PAs doing.
You don’t know that, and I don’t know what he’s going to do, either. What I’m saying is that one year collapses at this age are pretty common, and you can’t reasonably assume that Gonzalez is even going to plateau at his current .800-ish OPS, considering that he’s in steady decline. Just some examples from the M’s: Edgar went from an .895 OPS to .727- in one year. Olerud went from .893 to .762- in one year.
Yeah, that’s not Carl Everett- but that’s basically replacement level performance for a DH, 1B or corner OF (it simply isn’t that hard to get a .750 OPS for those positions). Why on earth should the Mariners block Doyle, Broussard or Jones’s (or hell, even Reed’s) potential playing time with a guy who’s pushing 40, has been heading steadily downhill since his mid-30’s, and who has a non-zero risk of completely falling apart and being a complete waste of millions of dollars, like many, many players DO their last year in the bigs?
125: If he’s a “normall” minor leaguer (whatever that is, even ignoring your spelling error, I’m not sure what that is), and he doesn’t make the team, he won’t be designated for assignment.
Also, Burke>Rivera
Benito Santiago>Burke.
ah. I love the ‘Mariner Mailbag’….
“Will Michael Garciaparra have a chance at making the Opening Day roster?”
Better than Jake Woods? You must be on crack.
Let’s see… he’s older, has a higher ERA, a lower GB/FB ratio, a higher WHIP, a lower K/BB ratio, a higher HR rate… the list goes on.
Jake Woods isn’t even great, and this guy’s not him. I don’t see how this be construed as a ‘good move’ other than the baseline 1% chance that any stiff off the street might contribute. Heck, if he’s got such an upside, what’s a genius like Billy Beane doing getting rid of him?
Craig Kuzmic > Burke
Dave, mlbtraderumors.com has a story that says the M’s are interested in trading for Brian Bannister of the Mets. Do you know if there’s any truth to that? If so, what do you think of Bannister, and who do you see us giving up for him? (Please say Mateo.)
MLBTraderumors. I lost all faith in them a long time ago.
Not that I am too interested but I would rather sign Ray Durahm than Gonzo. He could be used similar to how McLemore was, but with a lot of power suited for Safeco. You could plug him in at 2b,dh,lf, and 1b.
Edgar K’d, even as a great hitter, more than Gonzalez did. His collapse coincided perfectly with a tailspin in walks. His bat speed had already faded into liability but his eye bought him a few years. Once the eye went ahead, little was left.
Again, the one thing separating Gonzalez from the other examples is the dearth of K’s in his old age. The key to collapse is disappearing bat speed. If Luis’ bat speed was fading, his K’s would rise, and they have not.
As for blocking the youngin’s… I dare not offer the usual disclaimer about Doyle… Jones might not even be ready next year… and wouldn’t we deal Broussard anyway if we landed Gonzo? Also, in the spirit of ‘how do we know Gonzo won’t collapse?’… ‘How do we know the prospects will be ready to produce as everyday players?’
I don’t see the harm in a 1-2 year deal. The indications of the collapse you guys are fearing just aren’t there. You’re looking at the age column and jumping to conclusions.
Is Burke a poor defensive catcher? Seems like he’s got solid minor league batting numbers and more than doubled Rivera’s average in his one season as a back up catcher a few years ago.
I like the fact he’s an Oregon State guy (I only mentioned his school as a pathetic excuse to remind everyone they are the defending NCAA baseball national champs)
Using Durham’s versatility while he’s still a somewhat dangerous hitter with some speed is an intriguing idea.
Trade J. Reed to Cincy for E. Ramirez, he had 10 QS in 18 outings last season before his arm hit a wall…
Even better,it might be nice to revisit the idea of going after A. Guzman…. If the back end of the rotation is going to be spare parts, I’d rather it be made of spare parts with upside.
Gil Meche has tons of upside…
His collapse coincided perfectly with a tailspin in walks.
Edgar’s walks his last 4 complete (non-injury) years before 2004: 97, 96, 93, 92. Uh… not seeing the collapse so much. Gonzo drew 94 walks in 2003. He drew 69 in 2006. So that’s NOT an ongoing collapse that could easily continue into 2007, but Edgar going from 97 to 92 is?
You’re looking at the age column and jumping to conclusions.
Look, even if Gonzo DID NOT lose anything from 2006 to 2007, he’d be a 97 OPS+ player. Edgar’s OPS the last year he was here? The year he had a .727 OPS and retired? 96. John Olerud’s OPS’s in Seattle his last two years? 105 and 94.
Care to guess what Randy Winn’s OPS+’s were in Seattle? 105, 107, and the year he wasn’t so good before he got traded to SF, 96. So, you’re saying we should sign guys who are worse than Randy Winn was as a Mariner two of his three years here as lefty bats with punch?
Oh, here’s another example: Ruben Sierra posted a 101 OPS as a Mariner in 2002. That comes out to a whopping .270/.319/.418. Note that nobody was thinking THAT was any good, either, because we ditched him for Winn.
In other words, in order for Gonzo to be any use at all, as opposed to being roster filler (because I seriously doubt a 39 year old corner OF with no SBs any more is a superior defensive player, especially at Safeco, but feel free to rebut that with some good stats), he needs to be a 105-110 OPS player- so he doesn’t just have to STOP his consistent decline, but he has to outright reverse it.
What you don’t realize is Gonzo is already collapsing: he just plays in a ballpark where the entire fricking LEAGUE would have a .355 OBP and .455 SLG, so superficially, his numbers this last year look OK compared to what happens at Safeco, where fly balls go to die.
And before you say “Raul Ibañez sustained his numbers and improved even at Safeco, because it loves lefties”… um, Raul was 32 when we signed him. Gonzo’s almost 40. That’s a HUGE difference in baseball ages that has to be considered when you contemplate likely outcomes. It’s still fairly rare to be productive late into your 30’s, and the fact that Gonzo is not a complete disaster at this age doesn’t mean he’s going to continue to be: it means that he was a borderline great player for a few years, and has declined to where he is now. Why does his decline stop in 2007?
Also, in the spirit of ‘how do we know Gonzo won’t collapse?’… ‘How do we know the prospects will be ready to produce as everyday players?’
We don’t, but I bet I can find a LOT more players who dramatically improved their performance at Doyle’s age, and Reed’s age, and Jones’ age, than at Gonzo’s age. Pleasant surprises generally do NOT happen to players over the age of 30 (Raul’s one of the few exceptions, and his minor league stats indicated he should have been able to hit. He just didn’t his first seven or eight hundred MLB plate appearances).
Blocking talented younger players with sub-average hitters because they are “proven veterans” is EXACTLY the sort of thing bad organizations do- and it’s why Gonzo and Floyd are “no sign” for me. We don’t need to clutter the roster with declining veterans at the 1B/DH/corner OF side of the spectrum when we actually have some interesting players on the right side of 30. In fact, one could argue that Raul and Sexson represent TOO MUCH old “proven veteran” (I believe a USSM author posted something like that once).
Yes Mehe does….but now it’ll be expensive waiting/hoping for him to achieve it…
Trade J. Reed to Cincy for E. Ramirez, he had 10 QS in 18 outings last season before his arm hit a wall…
I realize it was in the minor leagues, but this guy put up some ridiculous K to BB rates. 13:1? 9:1? 36:1? Somewhat intriguing.
Cincy only wants relievers. Mateo would have to be part of any Ramirez package.
131 - The argument isn’t even really that Lehr has a ton of upside. It’s that he can be acceptably mediocre (with better results than mediocre, if things break right) for the league minimum. Would you rather have acceptably mediocre from someone making $300,000 or someone making $8 million?
Cincy only wants relievers. Mateo would have to be part of any Ramirez package
I’m not seeing the downside here. Please sign me up for this deal.
Under the new CBA, the deadline for offering free agents arbitration is tomorrow (December 1) and the deadline for players to accept or reject arbitration is December 7. As a type “B” free agent, Meche would provide the M’s with a supplemental first round pick if he signs elsewhere.
I’m indifferent on Broussard v. Gonzalez, but the fact that Broussard has developed into a hacker over the last few years is a concern. His BB/K ratio has steadily dropped the last three years:
2004 age 27 (418 AB) 52 BB/95 K
2005 age 28 (466 AB) 32 BB/98 K
2006 age 29 (432 AB) 26 BB/103 K
Mateo isn’t a free agent, though, is the problem.
Okay I’ll bite. I am not saying this signing is going to turn the M’s around and does not excite me nor, does the interest that the M’s have in Luis G. (Might as well sign Everret … again imo). I was all for him being ewith the M’s if the he were younger. Bavasi needs to dig deeper. Signing Lehr is about par as the M’s saying they have signed Baek or another one of thier miner league players. I will say with this signing the m’s can sign a person such as Schmidt with out worring about the price, if that is thier motive? There are stars to be had , but the search is proving difficult for Bavasi and the Mariners.
I think its pretty tough to argue convincingly that signing Lehr was anything but smart…
I’ll argue this later on, EC, but your last paragraph says a lot more about your stance than the others. I don’t think you be as against it if you didn’t feel he’d block the prize propsects.
As it stands, you’re proposing filling two corner outfield spots with two young question marks, one of which has an extensive injury history.
I unfortunately think Adam Jones will get a spot in the lineup by the end of this season… because I have a sinking feeling Ichiro will either get traded or walk.
re discussion between e. coward and Messer. Gomez on K-rates, Gonzo, and Gar:
To further edify that fine banter, let’s look at K-rate (as % of TPA) for the players:
Age Gonz Mart
21 22% —
22 19% —
23 13% —
24 14% 11%
25 13% 18%
26 11% 13%
27 13% 11%
28 9% 11%
29 11% 10%
30 10% 12%
31 9% 11%
32 12% 14%
33 11% 13%
34 12% 13%
35 10% 14%
36 13% 16%
37 13% 14%
38 9% 15%
39 — 17%
40 — 16%
41 — 19%
The arcs of their careers appear classic to me. Gonzo had his lowest K-rate at ages 28-31, and his K-rate has been drifting upward since. Edgar had his lowest K-rate at ages 27-31, and his K-rate drifted upward after that. I’m hard pressed to believe that Gonzo’s drop in K-rate last year is anything more than random noise.
Overall, Gonzalez is a lower K-rate hitter than Edgar. But if you take increasing K-rate as an indicator of declining bat speed, Gonzo is at almost precisely the same stage after his age 38 season as Edgar was after his age 38 season.
“I think its pretty tough to argue convincingly that signing Lehr was anything but smart.”
Based on past moves by this organization, I think there’s a decent argument to be made that this move was simply lucky.
#153: ?
#151: I’m against Gonzo because frankly he has no upside at this point. At best he’s average defensively now. His OBP and SLG are trending down every year since ‘03 and he aged into a VORP of 11 last season. Basically he’s roster fodder but it’s not likely that he’ll even be a bargain to sign.
I’d rather see Reed start the year in left than Gonzalez.
One other piece of conjecture on Gonzo:
Year 2B HR
2001 36 57
2002 19 28
2003 46 26
2004 28 17 (105 games)
2005 37 24
2006 52 17
Though I haven’t researched it enough, the typical “homerun” hitter will have a lot more homeruns then doubles in their prime, and when they decline have a lot more doubles then homeruns. This would follow a natural regression of power from being able to get it over the wall to “gap” power. Though Gonzo in his prime never fit the mold of the typical “homerun” hitter, the severe loss in homerun power coupled with a huge spike in doubles type hitting might indicate that while his bat speed hasn’t deteriorated horribly (as evidenced by his K-rates increasing gradually), his homerun power is all but gone.
The only reason he managed to keep his slugging percentage around .450 last year was compensating homeruns for doubles. The double is a lot more prone to fluctuation due to opposing defenses and blind stupid luck (”balls falling in”). Because of that, Gonzalez’s power numbers could nosedive down to the low .400s if he has totally lost his homerun power potential.
I can’t believe anyone’s making a serious argument for Gonzo. He’s 39, plays LF, and just put up .271 / .352 / .444 last year in a hitters park. What else does anyone need to know?
157. But he’s a nice guy and good clubhouse experience. Maybe he can teach WFB and the young guys about hitting and patience. LOL
That’s basically my point, CCW. Gonzo’s not very good to start with, and it’s simply not hard to find “freely available talent” hitters to get a .330 OBP/.450 SLG from DH/corner OF/1B, which is probably as good as you could expect from Gonzo going to a more difficult environment than BOB (even if it helps lefties some). So why sign him?
This IS the same reason why I loathed the Everett signing, BTW- it’s a waste of money, and there are usually better or cheaper options available, it’s just that teams fall into the “I need a proven veteran” trap (see Petagine, Roberto). I’m still waiting for the case as to WHY a 39 year old 97 OPS+ hitter who’s not playing a defensively valuable position is the kind of player we should be targeting in free agency.
Very nicely put Eponymous. Beautifully constructed arguments. I’m baffled that Gomez is riding this hobby horse.
If we were talking about signing Gonzalez to $500K incentive-laden deal, I’d understand the enthusiasm. But we’re not. In this market, a big-name, experienced, power-hitting leftie (with a world series winning hit on his resume, no less) is going to command several million dollars.
BTW Whatever happened to Roberto Petagine? The M’s got rid of him last year when I was out of the country and offline and I lost track. Any reports?
I dunno. This is a place where clubhouse presence might be neat. I can see Luis Gonzalez being a real leader. A guy who rallys the team and makes them want to win. A man who can lead the rookies.
And I’m being serious.
161- I know he was in Tacoma for a while, not sure if he’s still in the M’s system.
162- I agree with that 100%. Im not saying I want the M’s to sign Gonzo, but I think he would be an excellent clubhouse guy. Unlike C-Rex, Gonzo would probably be good for “veteran leadership”.
Now if he could hit like Pujols we would be set.
So his full name is listed as Charles Larry Lehr… but he goes by “Justin.” Weird. I guess maybe his dad was named Charles or something, and he can be excused for not wanting to go by the name “Larry Lehr.”
Petagine was let go after being DFA’d July 9.
I knew it! It HADDA be Jessica Simpson by a . . . by an appendage. Or two!!
Whazzat? Mariners? We still _have_ a Triple-A team in Seattle to talk about, too?? Hmmmmm. . . . Why?
and it’s simply not hard to find “freely available talent” hitters to get a .330 OBP/.450 SLG from DH/corner OF/1B
What? Even if you thought Gonzo would go further downhill next season, dropping from a .355 OBP to a .330 OBP but not losing any slugging percentage is weird. If you think he’s going down hill, I’d still peg him as a .270 / .340 / .430 hitter, keeping the ISO-walk rate at a better pace then his ISO-slugging.
I picked those numbers as representative of a “eh” DH/corner OF (though that might be abit high at the Safe).
Maybe JJ Putz can teach him the splitfinger that he is now using as his out pitch. Seems like that would only increase his ground ball ratio and strike outs.
hey…..why hasn’t there been a game thread lately?
This has been the longest off season I can remember and winter meetings haven’t even started yet.
The Rockies sign Jennings to a $13.25/4 yr deal! Is this right!?!?!? This seems like one of the better offseason contracts so far. At worst he goes Joel and they’re out $3.3 each of the next 4 years. At best they have a pretty decent young core of pitchers to build around in Jennings and Francis…for under market value. Maybe the Rockies learned something from that whole Naegle/Hampton ’situation’.
How about a 2009 rotation for the M’s built around Felix/Feierabend/Marrow…fingers crossed.
Ummm, it’s Francis that got the 4 year/$13.25 deal, and he wasn’t a free agent. Also, Jennings isn’t a free agent…
Actually, it was both Francis and Jennings that both got extensions.
Not saying the M’s could have signed him, this contract extension merely points out that smart teams are signing their young potential stars to long term deals. Instead of being at the mercy of the FA market, like the M’s and most of baseball is right now. It is a contract extension that is fairly low risk (considering what they are dishing out annually to Helton), with a pretty decent upside.
Umm, sorry Hobo, but your information is off the mark. The Rockies haven’t re-signed Jason Jennings. Francis got a 4 year, $13 million deal because he’s years away from free agency. This was just a deal to buy out his arbitration years.
Whoops all apologies! I swear i saw it somewhere this morning somewhere in my daily search of news….now all i can find is the Francis signing. I guess no more posting before my coffee!
I thought it looked strange when i posted it.
EC, I’ve gotta apologize, as two minutes after I shut off my computer to go to class, I realized the ‘we need to fill two OF spots’ pointwas totally wrong. “Oh crap, Ibanez!” But class was in 20 minutes so I couldn’t jump back and correct myself.
My bad.
Geoff Baker checks in on the Gonzo story this morning:
“”I wouldn’t say they’re jumping up and down, champing at the bit to get a deal done,” Terry Bross, one of Gonzalez’s agents, said Thursday in confirming the team telephoned him this week … Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi has said that unless a deal falls in his lap in the coming days, any outfield bat brought in will be with leftover cash after pitching is acquired.”
needing a cheap pitcher to go along with Schmidt when we sign him any thoughts on bringing Jason Marquis in for a one year deal. He looks like a change of scenery type of guy and might be had for cheap.
Marquis: gopherballer with a poor K rate. In the NL. Pass.
A misnomer here is that I am pushing for the M’s to sign Luis Gonzlez (colm took that notion and ran with it). Actually, I’m just arguing the point that he is imminently due for a collapse that will leave him as useless as Carl Everett. They’re not the same player, and wherever he ends up, I don’t see the indicators that Luis Gonzalez’s performance is going straight to hell in 2007.
#180: ya but that argument ignores the fact that he already is pretty useless….
Actually, I’m just arguing the point that he is imminently due for a collapse that will leave him as useless as Carl Everett.
And my argument is that at this point, he’s only slightly better in 2006 (97 OPS+) than Carl was in 2005 (94 OPS+), and his stats CLEARLY show big declines.
Let’s look at that on instant replay:
This is slightly better than Carl Everett… but only slightly. He’s pretty clearly falling off the cliff:
Even if he only goes from, say, a 97 OPS+ to 90-95 instead of 74 and only has a MILD age-related decline with respect to his league, that means he STILL sucks as a DH or corner OF, because, as I said, positions that don’t offer a lot of defensive value need to be ABOVE average to be well above replacement value, like at 105-110 OPS+. The minors are STUFFED with 1B/DH/slow corner OF types who can hit around 95 OPS+, which is where Gonzo is at now.
Basically, in order to think Gonzo has value approaching a several million dollar contract, you need to assume he will improve on his last year’s numbers. I’d rather that Bill Bavasi go to a Vegas casino, walk up to a roulette wheel and put Gonzo’s salary on red. It’s better odds than assuming that a 39 year old will dramatically improve performance year-over-year after several years of consistent declines, and it would pay for a nice chunk of Manny’s 2007 salary if he won.
Again, I’m indifferent on Gonzalez (on a one-year contract in place of Broussard, not Doyle), but the comparison to Everett just does not work. Here are their lines for the last three years before they would join the M’s (these are non-adjusted numbers, but both played in hitter friendly parks — ARI for Gonzalez; mainly CHW (1/2 season at TEX and MTL) for Everett):
Gonzalez (2004-2006)
259/373/493 68/58 BB/K
271/366/459 78/90 BB/K
271/352/444 69/58 BB/K
Everett (2003-2005)
287/366/510 53/84 BB/K
260/319/402 16/45 BB/K
251/311/435 42/99 BB/K
They clearly have two different skills sets, with Gonzalez possessing the ones that generally age better. He has, to use general terms, contact and on-base skills (some combination of pitch recognition, plate coverage, etc.) that Everett lacked. The SLG shows that Gonzalez’s power is certainly declining, but between 2005 and 2006 he actually increased his extra base hits from 61 (37 2B, 24 HR) to 69 (52 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR) in essentially the same number of at-bats (579 v 586). Considering Safeco’s effect on lefties, his 2006 was essentially the 2005 version of Raul Ibanez (280/355/436) — useful at best but a far cry from Everett-like futility.
A significant decline is not a given. This may very well be the year that Gonzalez finally sees a sharp decline, but it will not be because he is following Carl Everett’s path.
They clearly have two different skills sets, with Gonzalez possessing the ones that generally age better. He has, to use general terms, contact and on-base skills (some combination of pitch recognition, plate coverage, etc.) that Everett lacked
You mean to say he’s slightly better than Everett? Gosh, I wish I had said that many, many posts ago.
Oh, wait, I did. So can we quit arguing about something I agree with you on?
A significant decline is not a given. This may very well be the year that Gonzalez finally sees a sharp decline, but it will not be because he is following Carl Everett’s path.
So, the fact that Gonzo has lost OBP and SLG from the past four years means the most reasonable assumption is that he won’t decline significantly from his 2006 numbers in year five, despite the facts that he’ll be a year older, going into a ballpark that has screwed over some free agents over 30 who CAN hit lefty (Spiezio, Everett, Sierra), and we have the general rule that ballplayers generally decline as they get past 30, which is especially true as they get close to 40?
Gonzo doesn’t HAVE to hit .210/.290/.350 to not be worth a sign. He could hit .250/.335/.420 and he’d still not be worth any premium over any number of guys we could pick up at replacement level- and that would be just a straight-line decline from his current numbers (losing 25 points of SLG and some OBP). Broussard’s career line, BTW, is .266/.328 /.465- so Gonzo is already LESS of a power threat than Ben is. Gonzo also has significant platoon differential, just like Broussard- .819/740 for Gonzo in 2006, .819/.646 for Broussard- even though Ben’s 3 year splits of .8129/.787 are LESS pronounced than Gonzo’s .842/.748.
And before you say ‘Well, Ibañez didn’t lose anything…”: Ibañez wasn’t pushing 40 when we signed him, either.
Really, I don’t see the logic of why you’d be indifferent to a 39 year old Gonzo as your LF or DH (and either needing a RH platoon partner or watching him suck ass against LHP), and Ibañez, as opposed to Raul in LF and Broussard plus the same platoon partner. You’re taking on a ten year older player for NO realistic hope of performance gain (barring an asusmption that Safeco is where Ponce de Leon found the Fountain of Youth), and significant risk of age related decline/injury. We already TRIED this trick subbing in Carl Everett for Randy Winn. Why are we going double or nothing, when there are younger players in the M’s system who might deserve the playing time really soon?
I can understand an argument for low-cost replacement-level veterans as potential signs for the OF and DH if you think Broussard can fetch something decent in trade, anbd ESPECIALLY considering Doyle’s injury history, but Gonzo offers very little premium and is highly likely to be used the wrong way by Hargrove (him and/or Raul as an everyday player in LF or RF)- whereas if anything we should be bumping Raul to DH permanently and playing a younger and better defensive player with a replacement level stick.
[roids, ban]
[roids, ban]
Can we make THIS the post of the day? And if not, can we at least make it a permaban?
The indifference toward Broussard? Maybe it has something to do with him becoming a 30-year-old two true outcome player.
Hi Guys,
I’m new to your Mariners’ boards, and this is my first post, so don’t take offense. I am Angel fan (ouch), and don’t know too much about the fringe players on your team. But I do know Bavasi (ouch) and Hargrove and most of your key players; so I will reserve judgement on them til I watch them more. I’m not a big stat guy. they give you a tainted picture, especially in a small sampling. It doesn’t show heart, guts and other baseball skills. Like how well a pitcher holds runners on, fields his position and in National League, handles the bat,etc.
I am youth pony, high school coach, very good friend,and mentor of Justin Lehr, and his family. And also coached Mike Young, Mike Lamb, Aaron Rowand, Danny Haren, Chris Woodward, J.J. Davis, and played on same team as Alfonso Soriano. So I know a little of what I speak. I pitched adult ball til 4 years ago (torn labrum), pitched with bad labrum for 5 years (ouch-good horse pills). Now I’m disabled (stroke). so I have a lot of spare time to go to Arizona spring training, watch all games on MLB TV/ so I will comcentrate on the M’s this year. I did the same thing when Justin was on Oakland, then the Brewers. I will give you an honest opinion of Justin Lehr’s plus and minus.
Lehr is 1st and most a true old-school type “baseball-player”. He has the attitude you like, he is very disappointed if he fails to come thru for you. He is a “gamer”. He came to Seattle because he wants to “start”. He is a much better starter then reliever. tho he is good reliever. He has come into tight games with Brewers at the beginning of last year and got the job done. He was rewarded out of spring training last year and the first week of season by being main setup man to Turnbow. He had some great results, but he had 2 games last year in relief where he gave up like 3 or 4 runs in one inning; so that’s why he had a high era last year. his other outings were good. and they sent him to Nashville to start. He pitched 7+ innings of perfect game against hard hitting RoundRock in AAA game 4 (a must win to stay in playoffs).
He is better as starter, he has 4 quality pitches. When he first came up with Oakland, his debut inning he got Derek Lee out then struck out Sammy Sosa, and Aramis with 97 mph fast ball. Now he tops at 92-93 with movement, plus slider, very good splitter, and a change. He gets lefty’s out (he’s righty). and your catcher will love the way he holds runners on. Ned Yost said he has the quickest move to 1st he has seen for a righty. and he was the best fielding pitcher on the Brewer’s per Yost. Wait til you see his “fake-to-third, throw to first” that supposedly never gets anybody. He got 7 picks last year on that play alone.
It doesnt matter for the M’s (american league-dh) but he can hit. He was all league catcher in college-UC-Santa Barbara-freshman year thru junior year. He caught for Barry Zito,and Mike Young played center, then short. Justin hit nearly 20 homers his junior year. He transferred to USC with Zito and was 1 2 starters and had comparable stats.
His downside would be that he tends to have a bad inning in a mop-up situation, and inflates his era when you dont have many innings. He is currently pitching for Hermosillo in mexican winter league and joined them midyear and has become their ace. He is 5-1 and in all but 1 came (where he pitched while under the weather and got shelled for 8 runs in 3 innings, he hardly has given up any runs. He still has 3.16 era. take away that one bad outing and his era would be in 1’s. I believe he will help the M’s this year.