The Mariners at the 2007 winter meetings
With the real rock-em, sock-em winter meetings starting, it’s a good time to go through the off-season roster construction exercise and think about what’s yet to be done.
So for format, I’m grouping the guys, doing a little individual commentary, and then talking about the the group as a whole.
Rotation (5)
RHP Hernandez
LHP Washburn
RHP Thomson
SP4 ?
SP5 ?
We can assume that the 5th starter’s going to be available to Baek/Woods/whoever comes out of spring training. I still think the M’s lose the Schmidt bidding and land him for something ridiculous over four years. Or more. Don’t put it past them.
Winter meeting need: starters, any way they can get them. If they land Schmidt, they’re probably going to be shopping for cheap AAAA-type guys to make sure there’s something to throw into the 5th rotation and as insurance against injuries.
Relief (7)
RHP Lehr
RHP Mateo
RHP Putz
RHP Soriano
LHP O’Flaherty
LHP Sherrill
LHP Woods
The bullpen’s solid and cheap. There’s been no need for the team to go shopping for middle relievers. They may even be shopping Soriano, which makes sense: he’s getting expensive and if they don’t believe he can start, they may be able to get something they covet for him, and then fill his spot with a warm body.
Woods, or whoever finishes second in the race for the back-of-the-rotation spot, will be fine as the long relief/spot starter guy. Realistically, whoever has a hot hand in spring training is still likely to about as good as the rest of the options for that spot.
I hope Mateo, the veteran presence in middle relief, is going to come back from his 2006, but I wouldn’t bet on it. As long as Hargrove keeps him out of important situa.. oooooh. Right.
We’re quite fortunate in the strength of the bullpen. It’s strong, deep, and durable enough to absorb some innings if the team brings in a short-yard starter, if things come to that. Heck, they did well with last year’s rotation, this has to be an improvement, right? Right?
The bullpen could be improved, certainly, and maybe tailored a little more to the park and to vary the skillsets, but the cost to do so is pretty huge on the free agent market. I’m not going to carp about this unit.
We’re assuming here that Hargrove uses at least 12 pitchers. He’s been known to carry 13, because he’s not a good manager. That leaves us 13 position players:
Infield (5)
C-R Johjima
1B-R Sexson
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Beltre
Except for Sexson, this is a really good defensive infield, which means you don’t have to carry a glove specialist or two for lead-protection situations. It’s a nice situation to be in, from a roster construction standpoint.
Could use a left-handed bat for variety’s sake. But wait…
Outfield (4)
RF/LF-R Guillen
CF-L Ichiro
LF/DH-L Ibanez
RF/LF-L Snelling
Ideally, you get Snelling a day off at least once a week and DH him another day. You want him hitting as much as possible, but it’s entirely valid to be concerned about wearing his knees down and hope to keep him healthy by being smart about it.
The ideal defensive alignment clearly puts Ichiro/Snelling/Guillen out there, and pushes Ibanez somewhere else. Guillen’s likely to be unhappy in a 4th OFer role, and Snelling’s wasted. Hargrove’s likely to find some way to platoon with Snelling, even though it’s pointless.
The team’s backup centerfielder is playing for Tacoma. If Ichiro gets hurt, you can stick Bloomquist (or Snelling, for that matter) out there if you have to for a game, but they need a quality defensive centerfielder and besides Ichiro, they don’t have one on the short roster. If Ichiro’s hurt, they need to immediately fly Jones from wherever he is to wherever the team will be the next night even if it seems likely Ichiro’ll be able to play the next day.
That’s a reasonable solution, too. Earl Weaver used to say his backup shortstop was in Rocherster. Adam Jones needs his playing time more than the team needs him to sit on the bench in case something happens.
The rest (4)
DH/1B-L Broussard
Embarassing year at the plate. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Given the team’s general reliance on their eyes and their impressions of the player in front of them (even when visiting) it’s a little surprising they haven’t shown him the door already. (Bonus questions: will his struggles make him an even better musician, adding a little more angst and depth to his surprisingly good and catchy dude-strumming-guitar work?)
IF/OF-R Bloomquist
Plays decent defense around the diamond, hasn’t, can’t, and won’t ever hit.
IF/LF-R Morse
What do you say about Morse? He’s a failure at being an anti-Bloomquist. Anti-Bloomquist would at least hit a lot better (and left-handed). Morse hits a little and doesn’t play defense at your choice of positions. At least Bloomquist carries a decent glove around the diamond.
Dobbs might get the call instead of Morse as a left-handed bat, but that seems less likely.
C-R Rivera
Rivera’s on the 40m right now, which gives him an advantage over Rob Johnson, but it’s likely either way the M’s aren’t going to try and squeeze much production out of the spot. A better backup option, combined with a better manager, might get Johjima more regular rest and possibly help Kenji’s offense.
What’s that all mean for the winter meetings and the rest of the off-season?
They need to sign a pitcher, a middle-rotation-or-better guy they can pencil in for 200 innings. This will almost certainly be Jason Schmidt.
For the rest of the roster, it’s surprising when you look at it this way: they don’t scream out for much. I don’t look at this set of guys and think “oh, they’re dying for a switch-hitting middle infield backup who can steal 15 bases.” There are, for a decent manager, a pretty varied set of tools that don’t require a lot of caddies or substitutions, which is good, because there’s no evidence Hargrove still knows, if he has ever known, how to do those things anyway.
You can immediately see the problem we’ve been waving our hands and screaming about all year: the team’s got too many corner outfield/1B/DH guys.
That’s the second big thing that is probably on Bavasi’s agenda: clear a spot. They need to punt Sexson, preferably, but it still seems more likely to be Broussard. Then they can push Ibanez to DH, Broussard to first, or whatever they work out. Even if they signed or traded for some weird first base piece – a defensive specialist first baseman, heck – they could still work them in with the rest of the mix. But as it stands, they’ve got an excess on the corners and 1B, and they’d be well-off to fix it.
We all know they’re going into the winter meetings looking for at least one pitcher. The interesting question is whether they’re looking to solve their other problem, and if they’re looking to move Sexson to one of the few teams that could take him (do it! do it!), if they’re going to try to move the less-expensive Broussard to the larger pool of teams that could take him, and which direction they end up going.
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Frankly, things are looking up.
I like Jose Guillen more than Luis Gonzalez.
I like John Thomson more than Jamey Wright.
The idea was there, I’m just glad they made the choices they did.
The real questions:
What do we get for Reed?
What do we get for Sexson or Broussard?
First off why is everyone saying that Ben Brousard sucks so much? It really really makes me mad! What is so bad a bout hitting .289 AVG 21 Hr
and 63 RBI’s?
This season is going to kick ass. M’s for world series. But we need to get us a hold of Jake Peavy first.
A little surprised that Jon Huber isn’t in the mix, or is Lehr a better option than Huber?
Why Morse instead of Reed? I would prefer Reed, but do you feel that he will be traded (or sent to AAA)?
Huber will get the call when Grover goes to extra-special 13-man pitching staff.
Beak. Cha Sueng Beak. That may be the coolest spelling error ever.
8. haha, sorry for the error.
You know whats funny jordan I spelled his name the same way you did yesterday.hahaha!
I am in favor of dealing Sexson on principle but since I do not see anything out there to spend his 14 million dollar salary on, I am beginning to think it may be better just to hold onto to him.
I mean assuming we have the money and will be signing Schmidt, what would you suggest we spend the 14 million dollar windfall on that will make the team any better in 2007 over just holding onto Sexson (who is better than any 1B we would bring in or move up the depth chart)?
Again not saying I am against moving Sexson (I have been a supporter of the idea since about 3 minutes after he signed) but unless we improve the team with the trade, what is the point?
14 million dollars for the owners to pocket?
Why does everyone talk like Thomson is on the team? They just inquired about his health. I heard there was a one year deal on the table with an option, but nothing is official, or even rumored to be official. Yeah, that makes sense…
FWIW, Guillen says he is to play in RF: “It’s to play in right field,” he said. “All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field.”
Any news on Mark Lowe?
a longer version of Baker’s column on the M’s going to the winter meetings is on the wire
ooh, and Steve Kelley warns us that the Mariners are fiddling while the free-agent market burns!
“So far this has been the Mariners’ offseason of inertia — all rumors and wild-eyed blogs”
Yeah, well, wake me up when Kelley writes something, anything, that contributes to any baseball conversation being held any where in the world.
I dunno, I kinda think it is a compliment to be called a wild-eyed blog by the likes of him
#13
re: Mark Lowe Status
Mark Lowe may well be done as a professional ballplayer. Last I heard he had some serious structural problems in his elbow, and he’s out until at least May, if not more.
It sucks if it’s true, considering how great and cheap he was out of the bullpen.
11 – I have the same issue. There have been numerous times we’ve heard trades or signings have been close to a done deal and haven’t happened. Why are we assuming Thomson is a Mariner?
What, exactly, is wrong with the Ms staying out of the free agent market?
That’s like slamming Warren Buffett for staying out of dotcom stocks in 2000.
Defensively, doesn’t it make the most sense to DH Sexson and put Ibanez at 1B? I know he hasn’t played much 1B since his KC days, but if we’re talking about getting tiny advantages and building them up over the course of a season, giving those defensive innings to someone other than Sexson/Broussard, anyone who could reasonably perform better, seems preferable, especially since they want those guys in the lineup anyway.
David A. — that pretty much ties back into the “surplus at DH/1B/LF” issue Derek’s talking about.
The problem there is that Ibanez, in his brief trial at KC, looked hooooooooooooooooooorrrible. He may be the worst 1B on the roster. Now, maybe he’d get better if he got more time and practice there, but… yeah. That’s an issue.
On the other hand, if you’re going to hide a horrible defensive liability, first is a fine place to do it.
If Scott Hatteberg could be turned into a “Pickin’ Machine,” so could Raul. If he’s willing to do the work.
It appears odd that historically Bavasi and Fontaine have coveted and drafted athletic short stop, centerfielder type tools players. How is then that the roster is filled with 1b, dh, corner fielders?
pensive,
I think you are thinking of the previous administration drafting patterns, Fontaine has passed on toolsy SS/CF in favor of pitching and power bats.
Picking Clement meant passing on the guy with the most tools Cameron Maybin and a SS with solid tools Troy Towliski in favor of a catcher with lefty pop.
Fontaine has been in charge of 3 drafts and the only high profile toolsy guy they have snagged is Tui and that was totally justified.
#18,
Thanks for the link. Sad news. I admit to having a substantial mancrush on Mark Lowe.
Lets not pronounce Lowe’s career over until he returns and ‘Pineiro’s it.
Be warned, Gasbag is saying Theo will be talking to the M’s about a Adam Jones/Putz package for Manny at the meetings. Try to remember 90% of things he says never happen.
I would do Jones/Putz for Manny, sounds like a no-brainer.
Of course it would need to be accompanied with unloading Sexson so that money is still there for Schmidt.
We need pitching.
But Purz and Jones for Manny sounds like a winner to me.
Jones and Putz for Manny?
I think I’d do that. I like Adam Jones but I’m not sure if he’s going to hit enough to be a corner outfielder or play enough defense to be a center fielder. He looks like a tweener to me.
Putz was fantastic last year, but relievers are inherently fungible and we could move Soriano into the “closer” role if we have to have one of those outdated things.
Um, WTF? Manny for Putz and Jones? Straight up? No.
I think I’d do that. I like Adam Jones but I’m not sure if he’s going to hit enough to be a corner outfielder or play enough defense to be a center fielder. He looks like a tweener to me.
Jones came up to MLB before he could buy his own beer. Not being able to hit at that age means nothing as to what he’ll be in a couple of years. He compares pretty nicely to Mike Cameron or Eric Davis. Oh, and our current HOF-caliber CF? He’s up for free agency next year, and he’ll be coming into a market where Gary “I was on waivers in 2003″ Matthews Jr. got a ridiculous deal based on ONE good year. Quick quiz: can Manny play CF?
And that would leave our #1 RHP out of the bullpen as someone with elbow injury history. Backing him up? Jon Huber. Kthxno. Decent relievers are fungible, but GOOD relievers certainly aren’t. If Soriano went down, we’d be looking at a repeat of the late 90’s Mariners: “Dude, where’s my 3 run lead in the 7th inning? Where’s my closer?”
I could almost understand dumping Jones and Putz for Manny if this was a 90 win team that was THIS )( close to getting over a hump, and we had a healthy Mark Lowe and some depth in the minors for CF if Ichiro walks after 2007- but the bullpen is at “just deep enough” right now, not “extraordinarily deep”- and (time to sound like a broken record) the Mariner offense just isn’t as bad as you think it is. With a healthy Guillen and Doyle replacing the 700 PAs of suck of Jones/Everett/Reed, it’s going to be pretty good. Blowing a hole in the bullpen and removing the best position player in the M’s farm system for a very elite but expensive, aging and defensively limited player is the wrong thing to do when you’re not even .500 yet. The fact is there’s a VERY good chance by 2009 Jones will be a better player than Manny, dollar for dollar and accounting for defense (word has it Manny will insist on options being guaranteed as part of a trade), when you account for Jones improving with age, Manny declining and the defense involved.
They’d have to send a LOT of cash west with Manny to make me agree to that deal,and probably a bullpen arm (and I wouldn’t be inclined to want to guarantee Manny’s options)- and even at 10 million per year, I’d seriously debate it.
That putz it pretty clear. I agree with that logic. I don’t think I’d do Jones/Putz for Manny/Papelbon, but I can understand the thought that Theo might try. At least getting Papelbon back you’d have the option to stretch him out and use as a starter and you know he can close if Soriano stumbles and he becomes the best choice. Unfortunately if Theo’s asking for Putz you can bet it’s because he wants to use Papelbon as a starter.
Fruto (21SO/16.2IP)and Bazardo have been doing some closing for thier respective winter teams and Bazardo has been looking really dominant and confident from what I hear. To the tune of 4BB 13H 13SO 21IP. Putz and Soriano are not the only options the Mariners have to close. Putz is definitely the best option though. Overall quite a few of our guys are doing well this winter. Balentiens .279/.333/.567 line looks somewhat familiar as does the 6HR 9BB 34SO. Lopez hasn’t been showing much power (.291/.325/.354) and Luis Ugueto’s leading the league in BA at .331/.420/.412. If he hits close to that way in the MLB next year I’m prepared to say OOPS.
Why in the world would the Red Sox give up Manny /and/ Papelbon for Putz and Adam Jones?
Re #2: Andreas, I think you’re misunderstanding somewhat, but the lament is how bad Broussard was as a Mariner. For the season overall, he was fine — he just didn’t hit here.
And re the Manny rumors, the Red Sox do want to use Papelbon as a starter — that decision’s already been made; and whatever one thinks about the particular rumor (Jones/Putz), I at least find the suggestion that the M’s are pursuing a deal for Manny to be encouraging (especially because such a deal would make them much more willing to move Sexson).
Reed pretty much has vaporized….what happens to him?
Sexson, Soriano, and Reed to Cincy for Dunn and E. Ramirez
Dunn mucks up first while Raul DH’s or Raul mucks up first while Dunn DH’s…
If doesn’t really solve the corner position/DH jam but if you hate Dunn, then buy him out/trade him in ‘08 and whooola. As it is, Sexson’s ‘08 moola is harder to vaporize… Besides there is always the hope that Dunn could once again become a 5 win bat…there wouldn’t be a defensive hit if he DH’s. Even if he’s only a 3 win bat, then the Ms would still be ahead of the game…
Dave Sheinin talks about the wacky money being thrown around, with more to come in the W. Post today
I pass on Dunn.
I not only pass on Dunn, I run as fast I can in the opposite direction. He’s Sexson with even crappier defense.
What about Quiroz for backup catcher? Is he ready–or good enough?
How about Garciaparra as part of a package for Manny? Little G is realtively hot right now, and it would make a great stroy in Boston to acquire No-mah’s little brother.
#42: not if he DH’s but even if he doesn’t it would be difficult to imagine he’d be so much worse than Sexson defensively that it would be a deal breaker….
Once again you also get the bonus of better payroll options in ‘08 which is not a trivial thing…
Still wondering if Dave & DMZ think the Mariners should try Soriano as a starter this year (or ever). Or whether you’re trusting their judgment on the health of his arm
Soriano isn’t going to start in 2007 because the Mariners don’t see his arm as being reliably healthy. If he makes it through the year without getting hurt, then they’re going to re-visit the issue next offseason, with a relatively high probability of putting Soriano in the rotation come 2008.
And yes, I realize that doesn’t really answer your question at all.
Adam Jones should be untouchable. As noted previously, this team isn’t a Manny from contention, it’s a Santana or two from contention.
If Boston wants to jettison Ramirez, then we can trade a little of our flotsam back, sweetened with a low minors player or two. Give them Soriano, Reed, Sexson (??) and/or whatever.
And, don’t bitch and moan about “why would Boston do that??”. They would do it because Manny is paid like an MVP, but will never be one again.
I don’t know if either deal is at all likely, but wouldn’t this deal make more sense for both teams. Putz/Sexson/Reed for Manny/spare arm…They wanted Reed last year, and they want a closer, and the money works out. I would prefer this deal, bc you can keep Jones.
If Boston wants to deal Manny to shed salary, why would they take Sexson back?
Soriano is worth the money all by himself, so his salary doesn’t factor into the equation. Reed is cheap.
So why would Boston want Sexson? Not sure they would. The point is more that the M’s should want to get rid of Sexson, and that dumping his 40 HR’s on Boston would allow the transaction to move forward without dithering over how much of Manny’s salary is covered by Boston.
Yes, but Sexson’s salary negates the trade potential. Boston would be taking a huge offensive hit while saving little money. Soriano’s nice, but they’d be better off unloading Manny for a handful of B+/A- prospects.
For some reason, I kept thinking of Manny with a $25 mil salary (instead of $18+). Dunno why. I do think Sexson would be a better player (better statistically) at Fenway than Safeco. My rationale was simply that Soriano & Reed + a nice project would definitely interest Boston, and that Sexson is the price they would pay.
Probably not the way they would think about it.
At this point, Manny would basically a salary dump (i.e. there is not much chance they get equal value back and shed his salary)….why throw Putz in for the right to help the BoSox out? I get it, there are other teams like the Dodgers and Angels who might bid a little for the right to help the Bosox out… but both have prospects to burn… the Ms don’t have that luxury…
I might have missed this, but why would Manny agree to accept a trade to Seattle unless it was accompanied by a lucrative contract extension?
He can veto any deal, right? Or have those news reports been mistaken?
At any rate, to get a hitter of his value (and he still has a lot of value, even with the salary), Seattle would have to give up something of value as well. A package centered around Reed and Soriano would have no chance of drawing Boston’s interest — how would that help the Sox?
I would guess a team like the Dodgers overwhelms the Sox and gets Ramirez, but if not I would expect Boston to keep him before they accept fifty cents on the dollar for him. He may be a little bit crazy, but he does hit.
Are the M’s even in talks to look into getting Manny or is this just something us M’s fans are discussing for fun?
from the Providence Journal today: “At least five teams have expressed varying levels of interest: San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego, Cleveland and Los Angeles. Of those, the Dodgers have by far the most to offer.”
here’s another roster-related thought….
Rather than giving up Putz or Soriano for the priveledge of helping Boston’s payroll…
The Twins/Astros are talking about Rincon for Ensberg…
Why not Soriano for Ensberg as your DH?
Not to change the subject too much, but did anyone read Stone’s article today? Maybe his worst ever.
And Soriano for Ensberg?? LOL. That’s rich…
Gammons mentioned Putz as trade bait for Manny. No thanks.
Why would you deal Soriano for Ensberg when you already have Guillen locked into RF and Ibanez and Snelling competing for LF and the other one competing for time with Broussard at DH?. Soriano should be used to help land a monsterous bat or a good SP. We don’t need to further pollute the DH spot with guys similar, at best, to what we already have.
Never mind. It has been mentioned.
#59: i’d enjoy your argument….
Stone? You mean Steve Kelley, right? Well, whatever. He’s under the impression that if Bill Stoneman and Ted Hendry jump off a bridge, we’re at a competitive disadvantage if we don’t.
Just to play protagonist for Ensberg….
Here are some career splits:
Broussard:
Lefties: .226/.286/.407
Righties: .275/.337/.478
Ibanez:
Lefties: .267/.317/.402
Righties:.291/.353/.493
Ensberg:
Lefties: .290/.419/.541
Righties:.263/.356/.469
I just don’t find the notion of Ibanez being a platoon partner with Broussard at DH that compelling. Truthfully, Broussard needs to find sunnier pastures IMHO. Guillen basically is insurance for Snelling and in reality really expensive platoon glue. Guillen’s had three decent years with his bat in his career and I’m not sold he’s going to come off of an injury and have a resurgence in Safeco of all places. At best you’re hoping he’s a two win player. I’m not sold that aside form a cannon, Guillen’s defense isn’t all that great. Its an upgrade over Ibanez in left for sure but Guillen’s PRM to runs for his last two full seasons have rated him at or below average (last year was much better but I don’t know if I cant trust it due to sample size). Dewan’s fielding Bible is more optimistic. However, from what I can find sprinkled about the net, UZR hated Guillen in left in ‘04. Truthfully, I could see a healthy Snelling winning right field coming out of spring training. If Snelling can’t win that job, well, I just don’t like the notion of him platooning with Broussard.
Ensberg if healthy could easily be anywhere from a 3-5 win player with his bat. Roster wise, perhaps he’s not a great fit because it means Ibanez in left and marginalizing their *big* recent signing (Guillen). But I like the idea of Snelling starting, Ensberg DHing/spelling Beltre when he hurts his hammy, Broussard making hay in another team’s pasture, Guillen being a 4th outfielder/occasional DHer (and all around antagonist to PT for WFB) and living with Ibanez in left.
#65 – So you’re advocating trading Soriano for a platoon player to hit lefties in the DH role?
Guillen is not being brought in as insurance or as a DH. He’s the M’s new everyday RF. This could mean that Snelling and Ibanez will battle it out for the LF role and the loser of that battle will likely move to the DH spot. More than likely, the M’s OF will look like Ibanez, Ichiro and Guillen with Broussard or Snelling getting AB’s vs RH in the DH role and someone else being brought in to hit lefties.
I’m a huge fan of Snelling, but, I also understand that guaranteeing him 500 AB’s with his injury history isn’t necessarily a terrific idea. It looks like his new role with the club will be as the 4th OF/DH role and he will be useful there and will hopefully be able to stay healthy and prove that he deserves to be an everyday player in 2008.
This means that trading Soriano for a platoon player isn’t smart. There are FA that could be brought in to do the same thing without losing a player like Soriano.
I’m advocating having a DH that doesnt have to platoon….
I’m saying Guillen in reality should be insurance for Snelling because well, he’s kinda…ewwwwwwwww otherwise
There isn’t really a free agent left in the market that could reasonably do what a healthy Ensberg could do-especially at Ensberg’s salary.
Speaking of Morse. He has an overall 296 Major league average. He plays most positions in high fashion. He needs to be traded to a team that he can have the opportunity to play on a regular basis.