03 Dec
Guillen details emerge
$5m base, ~$3m more possible in incentives. $9m option for 2008. He expects to play right field.
I’m not too distressed over the money, since there are a lot of ways they could have spent a lot more over a longer period of time. And, I’m about 50% annoyed that this likely means Snelling heads to Tacoma/the bench despite being generally awesome and 50% hopeful this means they’re thinking Guillen plays right the bulk of the time, Snelling plays left, and Ibanez moves to DH… or something happens along those lines. I’m willing to give this some time.
As now quoted many places:
“It’s to play in right field,” he said. “All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field.”
You gotta figure that if they wanted to, could see opportunity to get some of that money back by dealing Broussard, or of course, Sexson. And this means more ABs for Doyle too, but of course, at the expense of depth.
Too little depth = more Willie Boom Boom.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:02 pmI would hope the latter, too. You’d think they’d put Guillen in LF though, if that were the case, but it’s apparently a RF expectation, as you said.
Anyway, it would be great to see Snelling playing and Ibanez at DH. I can take Guillen if it meant that.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:04 pmI just think its too early to tell. It sounds as if Bavasi, if he could easily, would have already traded Sexson. I just think it isn’t that easy, as we have seen there aren’t that many takers.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:06 pmI think we all know deep down that Doyle won’t be on the field ahead of Raul, even though it makes the most sense.
I just hope I am not being overly pessimistic.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:21 pmWho has a better arm/defensive ability, Doyle or Guillen?
Ichiro! in center, Guillen in right, Doyle in left, Ibanez at DH sounds pretty damn good to me.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:24 pmHasn’t Ibanez said before that he hits better when he’s also playing defense? If that’s the case, then considering how he hit last year, I don’t see the Mariners moving him out of the outfield.
And while that’s unfortunate, I don’t see why we can’t just trade Broussard for a moderate prospect, and make Doyle the DH. Maybe keeping him away from the outfield will prevent another injury.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:30 pmI don’t think the M’s feel like they have to move Sexson. Unless they’re getting an offer that legitimately improves their pitching situation, Bavasi’s probably comfortable with keeping him despite the financial sit. Besides, I think the M’s lineup right now looks pretty darn good.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:30 pmBavasi’s next job is to sign Schmidt. The fact that this hasn’t happened yet is kindof scary.
It looks like a decent deal. I hope along with you that Snelling will be used 3-5 days a week in Left and some as DH.
Re: Sexson…Sometimes you’ve got to wait for more of the bats to be off the market before you can get the deal you want. It’s sort of like fear of loss sales. Sexson is worth a little more to a particuliar team if there’s less other options for that team. Even the Guillen signing potentially improves thier chances to move him. Indeed there aren’t many takers, but the bottom line is there are a couple and only one has to make/agree to the right offer.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:30 pmSnelling is out of options, is he not?
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:40 pmLet’s not assume Guillen can stay 100 percent healthy. If he can’t throw at full steam from right, he can’t play there — even someone as retrograde as Hargrove would have to see that.
I’m beginning to think Snelling needs a fresh start in a new organization to blossom, ala Raul and Kansas City.
And I may be the only one, but I still believe in better things for Jeremy Reed.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:52 pmI agree. Reed is young, and he really was injured all of last season, which slowed the progression. Reed will still be a good player, but he definitely needs a better start.
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:54 pmYou know I am not worried about Snelling getting PT, right now I veiw the opening day line up to look like this:
CF-Ichiro
LF/DH-Snelling
3B-Beltre
1B-Sexson
LF/DH-Ibanez
RF-Guillen
C-Johjima
2B-Lopez
SS-Betencourt
Odd man out-Broussard
Now that line up is way to right handed for Safeco IMO, which is why I think moving Sexson makes so much sense, but I am still comfortable with that line up going into the season.
Would prefer to hold onto Broussard and add another lefty bat (or just keep Reed) in order to have some flexibilty (not that Hargrove would be smart enough to use it).
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:05 pmI worry that we hold Snelling in much higher regard than the team does, that because the Mariners don’t regard him as a full-time player, he’ll be forced into a platoon role despite having no serious platoon splits. That could ruin his career and represent no net gain for the daily lineup.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:14 pmLet’s not forget that this guy is coming off Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm. It’s quite possible that early in the year he’ll have to DH quite a bit if he’s not ready to make the throws from RF on a daily basis.
I see Broussard getting dealt or being a LH bat off the bench. At worst, Snelling is our 4th OF and gets AB’s at DH as well.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:14 pmWhat’s everybody’s opinion on this?
With (or even without) the acquisition of Guillen, what are the chances of Jeremy Reed being on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster? 10 percent? 30 percent? Minus-70 percent?
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:22 pmThey were 0 percent before the signing. They’re still 0 percent now.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:25 pmIs his real value as low as his perceived value?
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:28 pmI’m pretty sure that the Mariners hold Doyle in less regard than we do.
This is pure conjecture on my part, but I don’t think he’s ever going to get a real chance in Seattle due to his injury history.
At this point (and this may be blasphemy) but I’d sorta like to see him moved to a team that’ll give him a real shot. Because as long as Hargrove is managing, I don’t think it’ll happen here.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:33 pmIs his real value as low as his perceived value?
No, but Seattle has ceased to be a good fit for him. With Ichiro shifting to CF, Adam Jones development, Snelling’s return to health, and Ibanez’s odd career path, the outfield situation is just a lot different than it was when they acquired him. Due to his own poor performance and others success, the M’s just don’t need him anymore.
He makes a lot of sense for the Marlins. So, the M’s will move him to a team like Florida for pieces that make more sense for themselves.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:38 pmDave - In your opinion, are we out of the Manny sweepstakes? I had always envisioned a Reed/Soriano/?? combination making that deal work.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:55 pmThe way I see it, I would be fine also letting things develop fairly slowly w/r/t to Broussard, because with Guillen and Doyle’s injury history, counting on BOTH of them playing 150 games is probably pushing it. A better manager than Hargrove could split playing time in such a way that he could shoehorn 5 decent players into 4 positions (DH, RF, LF, 1B), especially if 2 of them have fairly extensive injury history. Even Reed could get kicked to the minors if you REALLY wanted to play it safe. I don’t think it would be bad at all to wait until spring training was well underway to make deals- you’d have some idea if Guillen’s arm is a noodle or can make some throws, if Jones is looking like a decent backup plan in CF, or if you want Reed around just in case the unthinkable happens and Ichiro goes down, and so on.
The problem is, of course, that we don’t HAVE a better manager. Grrr.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:57 pmIMHO, Guillen = bleck.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:05 pmAlso… the one red flag I have about this can be stated as follows: this team already had a problem with patience in that Raul is the team leader in BB’s, with 65. Adding Jose Guillen to that ain’t going to help. I think a bunch of AL kangaroo courts are going to fine opposing pitchers for throwing first pitch strikes to Mariners.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:06 pmI wonder to what extent Safeco Field will affect Guillen’s power?
Just going by Baseball Prospectus’ Park Factors, Guillen is going from one of the severest pitchers’ parks in baseball to one only slightly less severe. (0.941 to 0.954) So that could be a gain, if only a negligible one.
A lot depends on the success of the surgery. If he’s not ready to play RF, he may not be ready to DH, either, as you don’t need a DH who makes just 10.8 percent of his flyballs into home runs, as Guillen did in 2006. (When he’s healthy, he does it about 17.5 percent of the time.)
Carl Everett turned just 9.7 percent of his flyballs into home runs last year. I’m guessing we don’t want a repeat of that.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:22 pmThe Mariners feel very strongly about Doyle’s abilities. Last year when he was injured they brought him up to the Major League DL, which we all believe was a reward for his determination and hardwork after several surgeries. I would be quite surprised if Mariner brass overlooked the lefty piston stroke that Doyle brings to the table. We all are pretty sure that the M’s are idiots, but no way to they overlook Snelling stick.
I think Guillen get MOST (not all) DH’n. Ibanez stays LF and Doyle in RF.
ST4L
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:25 pm#25: I hope you’re right. But that in no way explains the way the Mariners actually used Snelling last year.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:28 pm#23: I would like Dave to make an FAQ item of his treatise a while back on “plate discipline” vs. “walk totals.” It’s relevant here because it’s clear that some players who cover the plate well don’t need to work pitchers for walks to be the most successful they can be. Sometimes it’s enough, as it is for Ichiro, to work pitchers for pitches they can hit.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:30 pmMike Hargrove LF/RF/1B/DH power rankings:
1. Richie Sexson (4214 career MLB AB)
2. Jose Guillen (3892)
3. Raul Ibanez (3583)
4. Ben Broussard (1814)
5. Chris Snelling (152)
Ibanez probably gets a little boost from that for being a nice guy that Hargrove is now familiar with. I don’t see Doyle moving up the list unless he finds a way to get a couple thousand at-bats before next season starts. He’ll be around if someone gets injured, though.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:35 pmIt’s relevant here because it’s clear that some players who cover the plate well don’t need to work pitchers for walks to be the most successful they can be. Sometimes it’s enough, as it is for Ichiro, to work pitchers for pitches they can hit.
Fair enough, Jim, but isn’t it pretty telling that we’re relying on a 25 year old, often injured OF and Raul freakin’ Ibañez to provide any semblance of patience in the lineup? While I think they are good hitters, they aren’t going to remind me of Ted Williams or Edgar, either.
The M’s were dead last in the AL in bases on balls last year. Jose Guillen doesn’t help that. Ichiro doesn’t even help that either, though he’s a great hitter- and there are months where he hits .270 and is basically useless as an offensive player, because the hits don’t drop in.
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:51 pmthe more I think about this, the more blech it seems…..
December 3rd, 2006 at 4:04 pmI’m trying to understand what there is to like with this deal. Guillen is a righty with middling power…just the kind of player whose power numbers suffer at Safeco. Granted the “left-handed pop” I still think they need might not be out there…but this basically just takes AB’s away from Snelling who in Safeco at least, is the better bat.
December 3rd, 2006 at 4:28 pmA better manager than Hargrove could split playing time in such a way that he could shoehorn 5 decent players into 4 positions (DH, RF, LF, 1B), especially if 2 of them have fairly extensive injury history.
I was thinking the same. I know it’s been pointed out that Guillen isn’t great against lefties, but I’d still like to see him taking Ibanez’s spot against them. Not that it would happen anytime with this organization, but hey. If anything he’ll get Snelling’s followed by the it’s-not-a-platoon memo.
December 3rd, 2006 at 4:28 pmTruth be told for his career, he isnt great against anybody….
career OPS splits:
Jose *gonna have a resurgence at Safeco* Guillen:
lefties: .763
righties: .767
just for comparison:
Craig Wilson:
lefties: .938
righties:.793
heck even send the requisite bag of peanuts to Milwaukee for a guy thet apparently hate:
Kevin Mench:
lefties: .930
righties:.746
Obviously the Ms think they are getting a great defender too…. I’m a skeptic…
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:01 pmProbably looking at Doyle as 4th OF(Good hitter); Reed, Soriano, Broussard and Woods and maybe even Sexson as trade bait for another starter. Are the Mariners serious about signing Schmidt or??? What starter would be available for what we have to trade?
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:02 pmJose *gonna have a resurgence at Safeco* Guillen:
lefties: .763
righties: .767
Yeah, so I’d prefer him against lefties in that case, but you’re right that he’s not too hot against either side.
I still think he’s above average in RF, but some of that hinges on his arm and I won’t be sold until I see it in action.
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:16 pmSomeone was mentioning trading Putz for Manny since Boston is still looking for a closer. Is this a smart move for either team? If so, is there any possibility this may happen?
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:17 pm36 it to seams to be somewhat of a match. I don’t know if could actually happen but you could see how it makes some sense with Pap moving to the starting rotation. Add Ramirez to the offense and one good pitcher and we are a strong Felix year away from the playoffs.
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:51 pmThe M’s don’t have any options to replace Putz that don’t come with questions and I think most people here hope that move doesn’t happen. It would probably not be a straight up trade and Boston would want some young talent + Putz. General opinion seems to be ‘yeah we’ll take Manny, but not if Putz or Jones is involved’. I agree with that opinion FTMP.
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:55 pmI think it makes heaps of sense for Boston….they seem to want to move Manny’s salary because they feel that Wily Mo and Drew can pretty much surpass Manny…. so they’d get a payroll dump and one of the games best young closers…..
I’m not sure why it would work for the Ms at this point-especially since its been reported that as a condition of a trade, Manny wants his option years guaranteed (another $40M).
December 3rd, 2006 at 5:59 pmTruthfully, i’d rather the Ms sign Bonds for a year plus an option for a second than take on Manny for 4….
December 3rd, 2006 at 6:01 pmBavasi seems willing to move youngsters through and let them play, so one has to hope that the Guillen signing merely means that they’ve realized Ibanez can’t play LF, and that Snelling needs everyday ABs. And as Stone correctly pointed out in his column today (while bitching about it and not seeing the writing on the wall), we have too many DH/OF/1B types. It seems too obvious that Broussard or Sexson is trade bait, and that Snelling gets regular ABs and Ibanez becomes a DH.
Doesn’t it?
December 3rd, 2006 at 6:17 pmI don’t think Stone had a column today, did he?
December 3rd, 2006 at 6:37 pmI only hope they will move Broussard -while I’m not all that convinced Hargrove likes Doyle very much, I do think Bavasi has every intention to give Doyle more ABs. Sexson will be too hard to move, so Broussard it is: someone will take him, I’m sure.
December 3rd, 2006 at 6:50 pmI firmly believe that Guillen’s signing means less playing time for Doyle. Not only does that suck, but I can’t trust Hargrove to do the right thing no matter how much the FO loves Doyle.
I dunno. I know we all hope this means more ABs for Doyle, but I can’t figure out where they will come from on a semi-regular basis.
December 3rd, 2006 at 7:37 pmSorry, I meant Kelly.
December 3rd, 2006 at 7:43 pm#42. I assume Stone is heading to the winter meetings.
FWIW, re: Putz– according to him, off-season workouts are under way in Peoria, with JJ, Snelling, Morrow, Willie F. & Adam Jones all working hard.
December 3rd, 2006 at 7:48 pmShannon Drayer just pointed out that Hickey has a new piece up on the PI’s page:
“Trading Sexson may be an option for Mariners”
December 3rd, 2006 at 8:00 pmI don’t see the point of the M’s paying possibly 8 million for a .766 OPS right fielder right now. What question is he the answer to? Who will block Snelling and Jones?
I wish they would stop playing for .500 and either try to contend or else rebuild.
December 3rd, 2006 at 8:02 pmI wish they would stop playing for .500 and either try to contend or else rebuild.
In this market, there’s nothing worth spending the big bucks on. One year deals aren’t blocking anybody. Adam Jones needs a year in AAA.
December 3rd, 2006 at 8:11 pmQuestion for Dave: Any idea of how Hargrove views Snelling as a player? I remember reading comments from Hargrove saying that he liked Snellings approach at the plate.
It would seem to make sense to me that Hargrove would favor Snelling over a hacker like Broussard. Hargrove was a player who would work the count so I figure he would be partial to a guy with that skill as well.
December 3rd, 2006 at 9:06 pmIf the Ms end up spending all 8M on Guillen than he would have performed better than a .766 OPS
December 3rd, 2006 at 9:13 pm#49, if there is no one worth spending big bucks on then why don’t they save their money until next year? We sure don’t look like we’re going to compete this year, why not concentrate on trading for prospects so that one day we can compete again?
#51, is that true? What are his incentives? I thought incentives all had to be about playing time.
December 4th, 2006 at 6:54 amGuillen looks like a typical M’s signing to me. A sort of name player who they can get for not that much money in order to make the fans think they are doing something. He’s a slight improvement on Carl Everett.
December 5th, 2006 at 6:51 pm