Tuesday Rumors
Slow day at the winter meetings. This is one of those days when all the people who go for fun, and not because they’re on assignment for their jobs, try to remember what on earth they were thinking.
Mariner tidbits from the day.
The Manny deal looks to be dead, since Boston was asking for a ridiculous price. I was obviously in favor of a Manny trade, having suggested it several months ago, but for what Theo wanted, the M’s were right to say no.
The M’s are saying all the proper things about not shopping Sexson, but he’s absolutely on the block. The current rumor du jour has Sexson going to San Francisco and Rafael Soriano going to Atlanta in a three way trade that would send Tim Hudson and Adam LaRoche to the Mariners. This deal would be a home run for the Mariners and a lousy one for the Braves, so I’d expect John Schuerholz to come to his senses before it gets too far. But man, if that deal happens, I’ll do backflips in the street.
I know everyone thinks Tim Hudson has gone into dramatic decline, but it’s just not true. He’s not the same #1 starter he was in Oakland, but he’s better (and younger and cheaper) than Jason Schmidt. His problems in 2006 essentially boil down to two things – lots of flyballs going over the wall (16.3% HR/FB rate) and an inability to strand runners (67.4%). His HR/FB was the second highest in the NL, and his LOB% was the 6th lowest. Basically, he’s the anti-Washburn. He’s an extreme groundball guy whose ERA was inflated by the amount of flyballs going over the wall and the frequency with which runners scored. We saw reversion to the mean with Washburn last year, and I’m pretty sure we’ll see it with Hudson next year.
The Cardinals have made a public proclamation that they’re going after Jason Schmidt. All I can say is Go Cardinals Go.
Barry Zito is mediocre. Barry Zito will be immensely overpaid. I would rather pay the same money for Gil Meche than Barry Zito.
Seeing the nastiest left-handed Uncle Charlie every 5th day is worth that kind of money, right? Guys?
FWIW, Hickey last night & Stark this morning both indicated the Ms feel that Boras is using the Ms to artificially inflate the Zito pool of ‘interested teams’ (they both feel his is still going to end up with the Mets).
Actually, I was pleased listening to Stark this morning just because I was hoping the average fan would hear him explain a few things, such as Schmidt’s agents are dragging their feet to get him signed after Zito and Matsuzaka, that neither Schmidt nor Zito are true ‘number one’ pitchers, that in a market where Meche will get 10M, taking a chance on a John Thomson who will probably give you what you might get from a Padilla for a lot less is a good thing, that the lobby theory in Orlando was that Theo didn’t really want to move Manny, hence the ridiculous price tag he put on him (the one no one has accepted) …
I hate Bonds too, but I love the Mariners more.
Subjecting the team to an overpaid Barry Bonds (He had a lower VORP last year than Ray Durham, but you can bet for sure if he signs he’ll make far more than Durham’s 8 million per): and his entourage, plus the media crush from you-know-what and home run 756, is a funny way of saying you love them.
ahem.
“There was word in the lobby Tuesday that the $18 million Bonds wants for 2007, as reported in Tuesday’s Chronicle, is merely a base. According to a major-league source, agent Jeff Borris wants easily reachable incentives built into the contract that would raise Bonds’ salary for this season beyond $18 million and guarantee his contract for 2008 — a package potentially worth more than $40 million.”
Huh? Barry Bonds was injured last year, VORP is a counting stat and position sensitive, and Ray Durham had an awesome year.
Hudson?! Oh my dear Lord. Yes he was down last year… I guess his sinker/splitter/orwhateverhethrows was flat… I don’t care… You snatch him up, even if you have to throw in a prospect… Well, unless that prospect is named Adam or Jeff.
The thing about Hudson is that going after him seems to go against the usual M’s policy of buy high sell low…
DON’T TOUCH THE TRIM! (squidbillies reference :))
okay, never mind.
That’s stupid money.
Bonds was third in the NL in EqA (behind only Pujols and Howard). I’ll pay for that kind of production.
That said, Manny’s better.
Subjecting the team to an overpaid Barry Bonds (He had a lower VORP last year than Ray Durham, but you can bet for sure if he signs he’ll make far more than Durham’s 8 million per): and his entourage, plus the media crush from you-know-what and home run 756, is a funny way of saying you love them.
I never said “sign Barry Bonds at all costs.” I asked if it would be in the M’s best interest to consider a deal (and yeah, that does include everything that comes with Bonds).
Yes,,,,and to fair to Bonds, there were only three leftfielders with higher VORP than him last season….two basically were within 2 runs of Bonds and the third, well, he wasn’t nearly as impressive on the road.
To me, its tough to criticie the production of a guy who is still essentially a 5 win bat with the third highest EqA in the NL…
Manny is better now too,,,,but Bonds at $18M is better than Manny at $19M plus Putz and Jones….
Seems to me that this Hudson and Laroche for Sexson and Soriano deal is the best thing anybody has heard. Since Sexdson would wind up with the Giants, does anybody know who’d be going from the Giants to Atlanta to make it happen?
ah, the Post. “While the Yankees aren’t going to give up Chien-Ming Wang or Phil Hughes for Sexson, a package headed by Melky Cabrera could entice the Mariners if they are willing to eat some of Sexson’s money. If they don’t pay part of the money, they can’t expect much back.”
60 – Armando Benitez.
Thanks 62, but that doesn’t seem like enough. There must be somebody else in addition to Benitez; otherwise both the M’s and the Giants are making out like bandits…….
#61: ahhhh yes…… there is definately something in the drinking water at the Post…
Well, the Braves are a cost-conscious organization now. They’ve got decent young pitching, with James, Ramirez, and Davies. Hampton is going to be back. So I can see why they’d want to get rid of Hudson’s contract.
Let’s not forget how bad their bullpen was last year. Now, with Benitez, Soriano, and Wickman at the back end, it becomes much better.
Why they’d give up on LaRoche, however, is beyond me. They must really like that Thorman kid.
Huh? Barry Bonds was injured last year
So it’s reasonable to assume a 43 year old DH will be LESS injured next year? And how is Bonds adding value over a replacment player if he isn’t playing? Anyone can sit on a DL and cash checks.
Ray Durham had an awesome year.
Let’s put this another way: Bonds was the second-best player on a bad team- and 40th in MLB in VORP. His VORP was similar to Aramis Ramirez, and like Ramirez, he has no defensive value. I would argue that expecting similar value out of Barry in 2007 is the BEST case scenario, and that realistically, you should build some decline in.
The difference between Manny’s VORP and Barry’s is about the same as the difference between Barry’s and Sexson’s, by the way- and Manny and Barry played in about the same number of games. So Barry is actually considerably less of an impact acquisition than Manny is.
If we express this in terms of swapping out Sexson for Bonds, it’s pretty easy to see the downside- an additional complete clubhouse zoo on top of buzzards circling around a manager and GM, alienating a fair amount of the fan base who is convinced Barry Bonds pursuit of Hank Aaron’s record is a blight upon the game, adding in an older player at an age where performance declines can become extreme very fast. All for (in the best case scenario) swapping out Richie Sexson’s 2006 performance for Frank Thomas’s performance.
I don’t think you should base much of your roster in the way of non-baseball factors, especially when there’s compelling objective performance reasons for roster decisions, but Barry’s issues are so big he becomes an exception to that. So no thanks.