The bad deal
Okay, so the deal of doom has been reported by just about every media outlet known to man. The Mariners are still refusing to officially confirm that a deal is in place, but they’re no longer denying it, and it’s clear that this trade is going to happen, barring an 11th hour miracle.
The Mariners have traded a good 27-year-old pitcher for a mediocre 27-year-old pitcher.
Forget everything else you’re going to hear for a minute. Forget the starter vs reliever designations, years of service, groundball rates, all of it. The M’s traded a pitcher who will be 27 in two weeks for a pitcher who turned 27 two weeks ago in a straight up, one for one deal. It’s a challenge trade, essentially. The M’s chose left-handedness and a designation as a starting pitcher over talent and performance. They swapped a good pitcher for a mediocre one, and none of the issues about rotation vs bullpen can wipe that away.
This is a bad deal. We’re obviously against this in every way, shape, and form. Horacio Ramirez is not the kind of guy you trade arms like Rafael Soriano’s for. Horacio Ramirez is the kind of arm you pick up as a throw-in to a deal or that you sign for a cheap, one year contract as a free agent. Like they were going to do with John Thomson. He’s John Thomson’s left-handed twin.
Okay, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, this deal still has a good chance to look okay for the M’s in retrospect? We were in favor of dealing Rafael Soriano this offseason for the same reason the M’s were willing to give him up - I believe that it’s only a matter of time until he needs surgery on his arm again, and that he’s one of the highest risk pitchers in MLB. There’s a very real chance that he blows his arm out in May and spends the next year and a half rehabbing, returning just in time to become a free agent after the 2008 season.
That chance that Rafael Soriano was going to turn into a near useless asset if they held onto him, and that he was going to be used as an 8th inning setup man, made it wise to deal him. There’s still a very real chance that Rafael Soriano is going to turn into a near useless asset. He comes with all kinds of risk, and the reward for the Mariners wasn’t as high as it should have been.
And, for all his mediocreness, Horacio Ramirez does some things well. In 520 innings in the majors over four years, he’s posted a groundball rate of 49.7%. He uses a two-seam fastball to induce a lot of grounders, which reduces the need to post an excellent strikeout rate. Miguel Batista, for instance, has been using this skillset to be a decent back-end starter for years, and there are plenty of left-handed, 50% GB guys who don’t strike anyone out and regularly post decent to average seasons in the rotation.
Most of them have better command than Ramirez does, however, and all of them have better health records. For all the talk about Soriano’s arm, Ramirez isn’t exactly a workhorse. He’s already had shoulder surgery, and missed half of 2006 recovering from problems with his arm, his groin, his hamstring, and his finger. Durable isn’t a word used to describe the man.
He’s only got three full years of major league service, so he’s not free agent eligible until after 2009, and he’s certainly going to command less in salary than a comparable free agent starting pitcher. If he’s healthy and everything goes well, he could give the M’s 200 league average innings for the next couple of years, in which case this trade would probably be a win for the Mariners.
But trades aren’t evaluated by the performance of the best case scenario for the guy you’re getting and the worst case scenario for the other guy. Yes, this trade can work for the M’s if Ramirez stays healthy and Soriano blows out his arm. But that’s not how you evaluate whether you should make a deal or not.
Soriano’s just a better pitcher than Horacio Ramirez, and the M’s a worse team for having exchanged the two.
To this deal, I just have one word: Boooooooooooooooooooo.
I find it hard to believe that this is the best we could do for Soriano. This deal makes me sad.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:14 pmSo within the extremely limited window of competence Skill Bill Bavasi operates, what is the MOST LIKELY next move that can perhaps make this trade more sensible in the overall picture?
Sign or trade for SOME sort of TOR pitcher?
I’m completely lost here.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:19 pmOver or under 2,000,000 fans at SAFECO Field this year?
December 6th, 2006 at 8:19 pm3. Waayyyyyyyyyyyy under. I would say 1,000,000.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:23 pmThere won’t be a 50% dropoff in attendance in just one year. It is still a family friendly place, albeit expensive. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if it does drop off just under 2,000,000.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:25 pm1,000,000? That’s 12.5K season tickets and absolutely zero walk up sales.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:26 pmOkay maybe that was a bad guess. How about 1,750,000?
December 6th, 2006 at 8:28 pmDave, now with this deal basically done do you see the Mariners making any other big moves by next week?
December 6th, 2006 at 8:29 pmBill Bavasi just may be the anti-Christ
December 6th, 2006 at 8:29 pmFelix
Washburn
Thomson
Ramirez
Baek/Woods/Lehr
That, my friends, is a last-place rotation. LAST PLACE. Get ready for it…
December 6th, 2006 at 8:30 pm8
Wouldn’t he have to? I mean by his own lame admission he stated how much they needed multiple starting pitchers. A single, injury plagued, mediocre starter surely won’t solve that.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:31 pmWith Tim Hudson off the table, they’re running out of potential big moves to make. At this point, the closest thing to a big move they could get in on would be to light $100 million on fire by signing Barry Zito, which would give them Felix, three soft-tossing lefties, and Cha Baek as a rotation. So, I don’t see that happening.
Beyond that, who knows. They could still move Sexson or Broussard. The Manny thing might get revived. Or, if tonight is any indicator, they could trade Adam Jones and Chris Snelling to the A’s for Kirk Saarloos.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:32 pmIt would be hard to overstate how bad this deal is. The M’s are now a laughing stock to the rest of the league. Bavasi has vaulted several places up in contention for worst GM in the game.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:32 pmLast year was 2.5 million. I think we stay above 2 million *tickets*, but below that in actual attendance.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:33 pmI just posted this over on the other thread not seeing this one yet, but, Churchill is reporting that a prospect is involved (per his source) with no designation as to which team it is coming from… Any word from your sources Dave on the inclusion of that prospect?
December 6th, 2006 at 8:41 pmI’d be a lot happier about NOT seeing Zito in an M’s uni if I had ANY faith whatsoever that Bavasi would spend the Zito money on anything better…sigh
December 6th, 2006 at 8:42 pmWe are fast becoming the Royals/Pirates of the AL West.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:43 pmDoes it matter what prospects come here at this point?
As long as Bavasi and Friends run the front office, this team is going to be in last place or close to last place for quite some time.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:44 pmWouldn’t it be hilarious if that “prospect” was Ichiro?
December 6th, 2006 at 8:48 pmThomson won’t be a mariner in 2007.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:48 pmAll I have to say is wow. So I guess this is how Bavasi proves us wrong…when we think he can’t get worse, he does. I say the good news with this deal is that he’s gonna be fired/shot [pref the second option].
December 6th, 2006 at 8:48 pmAssociated Press
espn.com
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — The Chicago White Sox traded right-hander Freddy Garcia to the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday night for Gavin Floyd and a player to be named.
White Sox manager Kenny Williams let slip during the announcement at baseball’s winter meetings that the “player to be named” is pitcher Gio Gonzalez.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:50 pmBraves website also is reporting as of a half hour ago that the deal is on hold…
I apologize if the link breaks the box, I used the Add Link box in the quick tag, so we shall see.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:52 pmGranted, it is not much, but hey, at least it is not completely finished yet.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:56 pmThe only way I can see Bavasi looking in good in this is if he has inside information on Soriano’s health. If he got a bad report from the M’s surgeon etc. Of course you’d expect the Braves to do their own eval, but if Bavasi knows that Soriano has a 50-75% chance of Soriano’s arm imploding then it would make something like this look a little better. Of course we can never know know that… just hope.
I’m just disapointed that Horacio Ramirez is the best that could be done.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:57 pmI’m guessing Bavasi realized his chances of bagging anyone other than someone out of the Meche/Lilly/Weaver Pile of Overpriced Pitching were next to nil, he believes that Soriano has a limited shelf life… and got the best he could swing on a 1-1 deal.
And frankly, I’d take:
Felix
Washburn
Thomson at maybe 1/4
Ramirez at around 1/4
Baek/Woods/Lehr
over
Felix
Schmidt at 3/47
Eaton at 3/24.5
Washburn
Baek/Woods/Lehr
You’re paying about 20 million more for maybe 30-40 runs difference in runs allowed, max (Eaton == Ramirez, so it’s all Schmidt).
This isn’t the most awesome way to acquire cheap back-of-the-rotation pitching, but what Bavasi did was better than what a bunch of other MLB GMs did by comparison this offseason.
December 6th, 2006 at 8:58 pmSo what are we spending the 20 million on that we should get all excited about? And instead settling for not having Schmidt and getting guys like Thomson and Ramirez: Atlanta’s version Meche and Pineiro
December 6th, 2006 at 9:01 pmI registered, just say…all right, I won’t let the curses fly. I’ll make a mature comment: I sure hope the FO has some super secret evaluation process we don’t know about.
Last summer, bored enough to watch a NL game, I caught a Braves/Astros game. It was slightly interesting, just to watch the Braves pitcher sweat and melt down on the mound, kind of Bad!Freddie like. Entertaining to see Bobby Cox wear a path back and forth to the mound, only to return to the bench and show the gamut of disgusted emotions flit across his leathery face as that guy got beaten like a rented mule. Then I felt sorry for the pitcher, because he took a linedrive right in the forehead, the worse blow I’d seen, that is, until I watched Soriano go down.
So when I read this trade, I thought…it can’t be….nawwww…and then through the miracle of Googling…yes it is.
I really try not to prejudge until I see the team on the field. Now I’m going to go write that on a blackboard 1000x.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:01 pmEC - Just so long as you are cool with finishing last again, because that first rotation is a last-place rotation.
I understand your point about overpaying, and agree with you re: Eaton, but one would have hoped that Bavasi could have pulled a better deal for Soriano than Ramirez.
So excuse me if I am not comforted by the fact that we didn’t sign Schmidt for 15 per…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:02 pm29
Exactly
Saving money is only relevant if you’re going to trust the FO to use the “saved money” on players that don’t suck
December 6th, 2006 at 9:04 pmSo what are we spending the 20 million on that we should get all excited about?
Um, next year’s FA market- like resigning Ichiro? Keep in mind we’re not just discussing 2007 when we’re talking about multiyear deals.
But yeah, Guillen+Ramirez+Thomson-Soriano isn’t going to get people all pumped, admittedly. Then again, it could be Meche+Eaton+Matthews Jr. At least the mistakes are cheap.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:06 pmDEAL ON HOLD ???
atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/a
December 6th, 2006 at 9:07 pmrticle.jsp?ymd=20061206&content_id=17527
52&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
31 - And the fact that “all mistakes are cheap” is the silver lining is very, very pathetic…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:08 pm[long link]
December 6th, 2006 at 9:08 pm31
I understand what you’re saying and to a certain extent I agree. But I’m starting to wonder if better players that are overpaid are not a decent alternative to even worse ones who are merely cheaper…but STILL WORSE.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:09 pmJust so long as you are cool with finishing last again, because that first rotation is a last-place rotation.
You read Dave’s post about the proposed offseason plan of going for cheap pitchers and overloading on offense, as a reaction to an overheated market for FA starting pitching, right?
Theoretically, THAT could be how you deal with it as well. Maybe the plan is to drop $20 million on Bonds at some point. (I consider Bonds a loathsome toad of an individual, but a lot of people here would be pumped about that one).
December 6th, 2006 at 9:09 pmWhere are we regarding current payroll and what realistically we have left to spend right now?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:11 pmYeah, so this is a bad deal for the M’s. But at least Rafi won’t have to worry about facing Vlad 20 times a year.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:12 pm36 - perhaps, but at this point, do you have any confidence whatsoever that such a scenario will actually unfold? I sure as hell don’t.
35 - I’d rather have bad, cheap players than horribly overpriced good players, just because the chances for recovery if something goes wrong are much better. The reality is that you can put together a reasonably-priced team that is very competitive - if you have some creativity and understanding of a player’s true value. We haven’t really seen that from Bavasi and Co.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:15 pmHere’s a question: Would it be worth it to finish next season in last again just for Bavasi to get fired or finish in second place by some miracle and have to suffer through another Winter Meeting of terrible free agent pickups and/or trades?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:15 pmCan I assume from the nature of this and the previous thread that I will be the first M’s fan to purchase an official Horacio Ramirez replica jersey?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:16 pmThe Braves WEBSITE says the deal is on hold….
December 6th, 2006 at 9:16 pm[seriously, stop with the long links. Just use the quicktag, and if you can't figure that out, google.]
December 6th, 2006 at 9:17 pmhttp://atlanta.braves.mlb.com
December 6th, 2006 at 9:17 pmHey Kent - read the article, and quit posting the same crap over and over again.
All that is holding the deal up is medical OKs. In other words, our brilliant GM DID agree to this deal. Are you comforted?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:18 pmNO! I will not conceed!
December 6th, 2006 at 9:21 pmWell you will get banned if you don’t “concede” trust me.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:29 pmBavasi needs a good old fashioned…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:31 pmWho the hell is censoring my comments? Some fascist Nazi probably
December 6th, 2006 at 9:34 pmHopefully our brilliant medical staff will bail us out of this.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:36 pmWe probably have enough for Barry- and the more I think about it, the more I’m afraid the M’s FO, having swung and missed on the good pitching, will go that way.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:37 pmI feel like at any moment the Scooby gang is going to pull the mask off of Bill Bavasi and reveal it’s… Cam Bonifay?
“And I would have gotten away with it if it hadn’t been for you meddling bloggers!”
You know, maybe this whole deal is the flip side of the overheated pitching market — a top ten hard-throwing setup man is equal to an injury-prone back-of-the-rotation lefty.
It might have just been cheaper to convert Soriano to a starter, but now we’ll never know.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:38 pmBavasi needs a good old fashioned…
I could use an old fashioned myself, though I prefer them to be bourbon on the rocks.;)
December 6th, 2006 at 9:39 pmMy comment was obviously censored Epon. Coward…
You heard it here first folks, Freddy Garcia for Richie Sexson and cash!
December 6th, 2006 at 9:41 pmI could use an old fashioned myself
I’m all out of maraschino cherries, so that ain’t gonna happen.
I’m also out of hard liquor. Damnit.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:41 pmFigures the person from Kent can’t figure it out. Sure helps our image.
Anyways, I am holding out hope for the offseason, in spite of this abomination of a trade. There’s still 3 months to get something done.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:44 pmThat, my friends, is a last-place rotation.
You mean, kind of like Carpenter, Marquis, Suppan, Reyes, Weaver is a last-place rotation?
The Cardinals just won a World Series with about the third-worst pitching staff in the NL. There is no such thing as a “last-place rotation.”
December 6th, 2006 at 9:45 pmManto, your comment was way out of line. I figured rather than delete it, I’d just remove the offensive part. If you’d prefer, I can just get rid of it altogether.
But watch the language.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:46 pm54
Yeah, because Philly’s current 1st baseman sure is expendable, lol
December 6th, 2006 at 9:46 pmIm from Kent, and I have love the trade…hear me out…
Bavasi is dumb, but not this dumb (Ok, he is that dumb), but I bet the whole winter he has had people throwing baseballs at Soriano’s head. Ya know, bring some flashbacks of Vlad’s shot of the noggin….so Soriano would be chilling at a buffet and WING, right past his head….walking in the mall…out of Footlocker comes a baseball..He is having flashbacks like no other and cant pitch again..so this deal rocks!!
December 6th, 2006 at 9:47 pmOh God what a dumb deal. Bye bye Raffy. It was nice knowing you.
We’ll have an entire rotation of Washburns before New Years…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:47 pmSoriano for Ramirez? No. Just freaking no. Jeebus.
(sorry, just got here…)
December 6th, 2006 at 9:48 pmI will remain in disbelief until I hear the official word.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:48 pmWell the only good thing to say about Bavasi is that he is not completely berserk like J.P. Ricciardi. Probably not long after he signed Ted Lily who the Blue Jays wanted to sign a lot Jim Hendry fell ill and was hospitalized obviously some ploy by Ricciardi to make sure Hendry didn’t sign Gil Meche too.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:50 pmI’m all out of maraschino cherries, so that ain’t gonna happen.
Ah, well, bourbon on the rocks it is for me, then.
My comment was obviously censored Epon. Coward…
Sucks to be you, doesn’t it?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:50 pmWell Dave, here are a couple things that are sorta funny…
The M’s website has an article up (by Corey Brock) that says the Ms ‘reportedly’ land a starter from Atlanta. At the bottom of the article, he talks about a couple other pitchers on the Ms radar now….they are: Rodrigo Lopez (who I believe you wanted them to look at) and the same Miguel Batista that you mentioned in this topic - as yet another back of the rotation starter to compare to the guy we just got. No mention of Thomson…what IS up with that, was it a mirage???
Maybe the Ms are out to prove that you don’t actually NEED any top of the rotation starters, but can build a rotation entirely on back end of the rotation guys. Maybe Bavasi sees this as a sort of market inefficiency to exploit, you know, like Billy Beane saw in .OBP….
Ya just gotta laugh at times like these
Well, okay, it’s easier for me to laugh knowing I have my same awesome seat watching the Rainiers all year, instead of having to pay too close of attention to their parent club…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:52 pmWhoa, hey guys let’s not fight. Remember we’re all Mariners fans here… Or at least
Mariners fans.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:53 pm57 - The Cards played in the NL Central. The worst division in baseball. They finished with 83 wins. Do you honestly think the Cards’ rotation would have won any other division in baseball?
And that Cards rotation is still better than Felix/Washburn/Ramirez/Thomson/BaekorWoods.
So yes, there is such a thing a last-place rotation. In fact, there are six such rotations every single year…
December 6th, 2006 at 9:54 pmMaybe Bavasi has the same fetish with back of the rotation pitchers as he does with borderline .300 OBP hitters.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:54 pmThe only reason the deal is held up is because Shuerholz is just checking around to make sure he isn’t getting “punk’d” somehow. I wonder how long it took Bavasi to convince him he wasn’t kidding?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:54 pmThere’s a polonium joke in there somewhere. Maybe.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:54 pm70. Probably all of two minutes.
December 6th, 2006 at 9:55 pmWonder what Ichiro is thinking as he gets near his contract ending…M’s might be able to compete though…with the Rainiers
December 6th, 2006 at 9:57 pmAny word on when we will hear the final verdict on this trade?
December 6th, 2006 at 9:59 pmAny one else thinking that at this point we might as well trade Putz and whoever else the Sox want for (Manny) Ramirez? Ain’t gonna be no leads to protect anyway…Might as well go all Kingdom on the league again and try to win 13-12 every night.
Just kidding, sort of, so depressing…
December 6th, 2006 at 10:02 pmI’m starting to think if Bavasi and FO really want to see Ichiro say Sayonara to the ‘Ms. I don’t understand this trade at all. Why do we need Thompson and him? Is he really going to do that much better than Baek/Woods? Ichiro is slipping away from us by every minute. Unless something drastic happens, I think Ichiro might be leaning toward leaving us for a contendor when his contract is up after upcoming season.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:03 pmI really wish Bavasi read stuff like this from his fans. There is plenty of statistical evidence in these threads that clearly shows why this is a bonehead move.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:11 pmWe got a Ramirez! Whee…?
Today’s mood went from ecstatic (hoping to acquire Hudson) to craptastic (reality-check that Bavasi is our GM).
December 6th, 2006 at 10:13 pmLest we forget, the M’s are looking at Cliff Floyd. Because a team can’t have too many LF/DH/1B types…
December 6th, 2006 at 10:13 pmSomething has to be hidden here that we dont know yet… Some missing piece to the puzzle…
December 6th, 2006 at 10:15 pmLet’s say the M’s announce this deal, then announce that Bonds will be our next DH… what then?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:16 pmI’m not sure Bavasi cares about any stats other than HRs and B/L T/L. Maybe we can still find some lefty sock though
December 6th, 2006 at 10:16 pmAttendance won’t suffer all that much as a result of this trade. The local papers will spin it by saying “we had an excess of middle relief anyway so the M’s could afford to lose him”. And they will point to Ramirez’s 30-22 record as proof that he’s a good pitcher. And they’ll point to all the oversized contracts being given out to pitchers this year, as if Chuck Armstrong had penned the article himself. Don’t underestimate the local propaganda that will try to spin this as proof that the M’s are addressing their needs.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:17 pmA bit of comedy from the Freddy Garcia deal, from the Associated Press:
December 6th, 2006 at 10:18 pm…now if WFB had been traded, then we’d see some *really* negative reaction from the casual Mariner fan.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:19 pmI wonder if Gillick lost his voice laughing at what a dumba** Bavasi is?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:20 pmThe general Mariner fan that goes to games won’t care….there are a TON of clueless mariner fans that dont care what moves, good or bad, that are made…they’ll be there.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:23 pmWhile it is not as sexy as I hoped (the other Ramirez), I don’t hate this deal. It’s not that hard to find a good middle reliver to make up for Soriano. I would be real hesitent if I were a GM trading for Soriano. He breaks down every year, but he is lights out. I don’t pretend to know this Ramirez too well, but he doesn’t seem terrible. Its hard to know what else was on the table, from here. Its too early in the off-season to evaluate Bavasi. Now it is time to add some quality. Bonds? Zito? some sort of trade…we need to add at least one star soon.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:23 pmThat’s just false 87. Where were they in the 90’s?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:26 pmThey didnt get on the wagon ’till 95.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:30 pmI would actually go the opposite way w/r/t attendance. We are quickly losing those fans that thought the M’s were cool based on 2001 when it was an event to be at Safeco. They are fading fast, and you will see more of it this year
December 6th, 2006 at 10:30 pmSorry, but I’m not convinced this is a bad trade (and frankly, surprised to see such one-side agreement). Let’s call the risk of injury to both pitchers a scratch. Yes, Soriano’s flashes of brilliance outshine Ramirez’s, but Soriano’s departure has less of an impact on the M’s deep bullpen than Ramirez’s addition has on the back-end of the M’s rotation. That alone makes this a livable trade or at least, not such an clear-cut bad one. Going to bed with visions of groundballs dancing in my head…
December 6th, 2006 at 10:30 pmTrue Bill, man that was a great year huh? God kill me now…
December 6th, 2006 at 10:31 pmthere are like 15,000 fans that go to games regardless….they dont care whats out there and generally dont know what the heck is going on…a lot of our fans are passive fans which doesnt put a lot of pressure on management to do anything…now that is no one on this board of course…but im talking about those ’starbucks’ fans that go to game and hardly know anything about the team
December 6th, 2006 at 10:34 pmI’m afraid to wake up tomorrow morning. I don’t want to have to read the headlines… 2001 was pretty sweet too.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:34 pm“What’s that thing they do on the field between the dancing groundskeepers and the hoverboat races?”
December 6th, 2006 at 10:37 pmI feel like Soriano was more of an intricate part to our future than Ramirez can ever be..thats why I’m bumbed
December 6th, 2006 at 10:37 pm96..exactly
December 6th, 2006 at 10:37 pmFans are Fans. From the uber elite to the ’starbucks’ fan… They all enjoy watching the Mariners play, some more so than others. I’ve been a fan since I was old enough to listen and watch the games. I don’t dig into stats and all of that, although I do know what they mean and I do know when a trade is either good or bad.
What happened to the rumor about a prospect coming over along with the wrong Ramirez?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:37 pmKey Arena
December 6th, 2006 at 10:38 pmSo you shouldn’t go to your team’s games if they are bad pretty much?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:41 pmthere are like 15,000 fans that go to games regardless….they dont care whats out there and generally dont know what the heck is going on…
AHEM.
A lot of us go to games regardless because WE ARE BASEBALL FANS.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:42 pmdw that was my point.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:42 pmEvery year I go to several games at the beginning of the season because I’ve missed watching games all winter. But for the last few seasons, I’ve gotten tired of the crappy baseball by mid summer and usually stop watching on tv towards the end of the summer. At that point, the only reason to go or at least watch is if Felix is pitching. It looks like that trend will continue for me for at least another year.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:43 pm88
Now its time to add some quality? Geez, I hope so, but why am I worried that we’ll only see cheaper players and even cheaper excuses. But I’d just love to have my negativity completely proven wrong this offseason.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:44 pmI know the fan debate is boring, so all I’ll just add (KentRoyals5) that those fans will dry up fast if this is the best our FO can do.
And unless the prospect coming with Ramirez is a “can’t miss”, this trade still stinks. The prospect would have to be the big name in order to make this deal stomachable (is that a word?)
December 6th, 2006 at 10:46 pmOk well I am going to sleep now and I am sure I will have nightmares about Bavasi trading Sexson to the Pads for Cirillo.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:47 pmIm not talking about fans like us…im talking about those who think Bloomquist is the greatest thing since sliced bread…you all know all those fans im talking about.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:47 pmIm gonna still go to games..but I’ll be the one sitting there with my “Fire Bavasi” sign
December 6th, 2006 at 10:48 pmrmb - It might be one… although - digestible may be better.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:48 pmAnd as for this off season..I was hoping we’d trade Sexson for a pitcher, sign Thomson, and get a bat……I didn’t think we should spend so much on Schmidt, and figured we wouldn’t bid on other pitchers like Zito…and thats fine.
But making this trade just was outrageous…thats why I’m upset..not that they haven’t done anything else, because I was happy with that based on the market.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:50 pmDont worry, I am sure they will sign Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds to make us playoff contenders /endsarcasm
December 6th, 2006 at 10:51 pm108: The point was, regardless… they are still baseball fans, thus they are entitled to think as they wish. Glad we have them, the Dome was so dead back in the day you could buy 300 level seats and cruise down to the box behind the plate and have no one stop ya. At least now the sights (for us single guys) are pretty good!
December 6th, 2006 at 10:51 pmAhh! Digestible IS better! My only hope is that this trade will somehow seem more digestible tomorrow morning, but i doubt it! Damn you Bavasi for driving me to drink jd tonight!
December 6th, 2006 at 10:53 pmIt seems like we could have gotten more for Soriano… or at least added a decent prospect to the deal and gotten Hudson… But everyone seems to assume that Ramirez is going to be the next Joel Pineiro, when he might be the next Jarrod Washburn and make the deal ok in the end.
December 6th, 2006 at 10:56 pm113: point well taken as a single guy…touche
but I dont wanna pay 30 bucks to look at girls…altho it’ll probably be more fun to do for the next few years than watch whats on the field
December 6th, 2006 at 10:58 pm115: was that sarcasm about being the next jarrod washburn as a good thing? hahaha
December 6th, 2006 at 10:58 pm#115 - So essentially, you’d trade Soriano for Washburn?
December 6th, 2006 at 10:59 pmLets just pray that a LOT of girls think Ramirez is hot so that we still have some money rebuild next year!
December 6th, 2006 at 11:00 pmObviously it’s not ideal. But considering the fact that the M’s need starters and have relievers, it’s not THAT bad a deal. I think you could have gotten more for Soriano, and that’s what is upsetting about the deal. But it’s really just a shift in resources. I definitely don’t want a rotation full of Washburns, but Pineiro is garbage you can pick up off the street and Ramirez and Washburn are better than that.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:01 pma little…
December 6th, 2006 at 11:02 pmSoriano as a starter > Ramirez as a starter.
Soraino as a reliever > Ramirez as a reliever.
Soriano as a reliever > Ramirez as a stater.
There’s no way to spin this as a good move. It’s not. It’s trading a dollar for a quarter.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:04 pm116 - I’ll pay 6 bucks or whatever it is in the bleachers to watch a ton of mariner games this year. First time in 8 years Ill be in Seattle for the entire season.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:04 pmJust got in, after hearing on radio about how Schmidt got away. Now logged on and…huh? Soriano for who?
You could probably cast me into the category of a casual baseball fan. I know from reading these threads that there are a ton of people out there who know a whole lot more abbreviations and stats than I’ve ever heard of. But that’s ok. In my less serious baseball mind I look at this and can’t help but think that BB traded a reliever who when not injured has shown stretches of effectiveness and fits of brilliance, for a starter who when not injured is yet another BOR guy?
Soooo….how does this help the team?
December 6th, 2006 at 11:04 pmSo..first game of the year…LF seats..you’ll find me with the large “Mr. Bava-cant-si a good trade if it slapped you in the face”
Yeah..it’d have to be a HUGE sign..but I’ll try!
December 6th, 2006 at 11:05 pm122: That’s exactly it. No way to justify it.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:11 pmEven if Felix wins 20 we are still in big, big trouble with this staff
………………………………..BILL HOW IN THE WORLD DO YOU GET THAT DUMB????!!!!!!?????!!!
December 6th, 2006 at 11:12 pmHow do people feel vis a vis:
Freddy Garcia vs. Horacio Ramirez???
Rafael Soriano vs. Gavin Floyd???
Wouldn’t it have been better to work out a deal for Garcia rather than Ramirez?
What in the Mariners Magic Kingdom is going on here?!?!?!
December 6th, 2006 at 11:12 pmBavasi as a child…
Smart
My dad gave me a dollar
`Cause I’m his smartest son
And I swapped it for two shiny quarters
`Cause two is more than one!
And then I took the quarters
And traded them to Lou
For three dimes — I guess he don’t know
That three is more than two!
Just then, along came old blind Bates
And just ‘cause he can’t see
He gave me four nickels for my three dimes,
And four is more than three!
And I took the nickels to Hiram Coombs
Down at the feed-seed store,
And the fool gave me five pennies for them,
And five is more than four!
And then I went and showed my dad,
And he got in the cheeks
And closed his eyes and shook his head —
Too proud of me to speak!
by Shel Silverstein
December 6th, 2006 at 11:12 pmNo matter how you look at it this is a disguting, disguting trade. The only way this is passable is if Soriano is afraid of being on the mound and it is 50/50 whether his arm lasts till the All-Star break.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:13 pmMaybe Putz can invent the 5 inning save
December 6th, 2006 at 11:18 pmJust get the deal done!!! Otherwise Bavasi might add a throw in like Adam Jones or Clement!
December 6th, 2006 at 11:18 pmHmm. Here’s something. Bavasi has overtaken Krivsky as the idiot GM.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:32 pmI can just hear the quotes coming in tomorrow’s paper: “We needed to bolster our starting rotation and we’ve done just that…” Ok.
The part I can’t believe is what Bavasi accepted in return for Soriano. Even if Ramirez does ok, Soriano was one of the names being mentioned at least in rumor as a component in a Manny trade, or as part of some other larger package deal. This is the best that our esteemed FO could do for a guy like Soriano??
December 6th, 2006 at 11:35 pmHmm. Here’s something. Bavasi has overtaken Krivsky as the idiot GM.
Just wait until all these new discussions are indexed.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:36 pmThe part I can’t believe is what Bavasi accepted in return for Soriano. Even if Ramirez does ok, Soriano was one of the names being mentioned at least in rumor as a component in a Manny trade, or as part of some other larger package deal. This is the best that our esteemed FO could do for a guy like Soriano??
I don’t think it was a good move at all, but to be fair, let’s not assume they could get something better based on rumors.
Flip side of the coin, it would have been better to keep Soriano if that really was the best they could come up with in return.
Prior to the different trade speculations, most people seemed to think that although we were staying out of the overpriced FA market, we also weren’t making much movement at all. This team wasn’t a good team yesterday and it’s even worse off now.
Probably the best thing that could happen would be a huge tank by July, the offloading of many contracts and a real fresh start instead of the pseudo ones we’ve been getting over the past few years.
I’m all for them winning now, but unless something drastic happens in the next few months, that isn’t happening. Had they realized that earlier it could have started now, but instead, it will probably start later in the season (if then), and the first legitimate shot would probably be 2009…
December 6th, 2006 at 11:43 pmUh, Paul…
December 6th, 2006 at 11:46 pmI heard Hargrove on XM during my drive home today. He was asked about young players who might make an impact this year and he talked about Jon Huber setting up Putz. The interview was recorded before the Soriano trade was leaked, but I heard it afterward.
He also said Felix is “in shape” (I’m figuring that shape is “round,” given the beer and beans diet) and that he’s looking forward to seeing Chris Snelling in spring training at 100%, without a knee brace.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:46 pmWhat I can’t comprehend is that ATL was apparently willing to ship LaRoche to PIT straight up for Gonzalez - but all Bavasi can get for Soriano is Ramirez? That’s what is so painful - it’s not like Bavasi can even sit there and claim that this is all the trade market would produce - because a much better alternative was staring him right in the face.
And what makes this deal even more depressing to me is that getting LaRoche enables the M’s to trade Sexson away as part of a much bigger deal. So the fact that they passed on LaRoche makes me believe they’re not serious about moving Sexson. It’s just a bad chain-reaction.
Right now, I’m still in denial. In order to fall asleep tonight, I’m convincing myself that the M’s actually did trade Soriano for LaRoche, and Ramirez was simply the throw-in. But the M’s are keeping the deal hush-hush because they’re in negotiations with another team for Sexson, and don’t want to tip their hand or lose leverage by announcing they’ve already acquired his replacement …. yeah … that’s what’s actually going on ….
December 6th, 2006 at 11:47 pmWell Bavasi has nothing on Jim Bowden.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:47 pmFlip side of the coin, it would have been better to keep Soriano if that really was the best they could come up with in return.
Amen, brother. Very well said. And perhaps one of the components to a real fresh start could be a change in GM?
I wish Soriano all the luck in the world. I hope he stays healthy and gets to eventually experience some big time success.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:50 pmAnd Bavasi makes me want to pull a Jim Bowden.
December 6th, 2006 at 11:54 pm…all Bavasi can get for Soriano is Ramirez?
Yep. That’s all Bavasi can get for him…
December 6th, 2006 at 11:56 pmLets just pray that a LOT of girls think Ramirez is hot so that we still have some money rebuild next year!
That’s what Chris Snelling is for. Give that man the most TV time you can.
Oh, that accent *swoon*
December 6th, 2006 at 11:56 pmUh, Paul…
Now that isn’t fair competition. It would take a “genius” to KO Hendry.
December 7th, 2006 at 12:01 amI didn’t know a thing about Antonetti until now. After looking around a little, I’m fascinated. This is a very good read.
December 7th, 2006 at 12:07 amAnybody coming out of the Cleveland organization from the last 2 years = solid gold.
They know how to rebuild.
December 7th, 2006 at 12:14 amRecently the NY Mets traded RHP Brian Bannister, a decent pitcher (I would say better or at least equal to Ramirez) for reliever Ambriox Burgos. If thats the return Burgos could get, then you have to believe Bavasi could have gotten far more for Soriano. I’m not saying Ramirez is gonna suck, although he might, but that shouldn’t matter. If we would have held out we could have gotten better talent in return. And thats what irks me about this trade. There was no reason to make this deal. It doesn’t make the club better, younger, cheaper, or pretty much anthing. Even if, for some reason, the management didn’t like Soriano, if we would’ve been smarter about it we could’ve gotten better talent. Did Bavasi at least do his job and shop Soriano to teams like the Red Sox or the Mets, who are in great need of relievers? This reeks, to me, of Bavasi doing a favor for his buddy Schuleroz.
December 7th, 2006 at 12:24 amYou can also punch “Chris Atonetti” into the search box o’er there… we’ve written our share on the dude.
December 7th, 2006 at 12:32 amFrom an Atlanta fan, I think that y’all got FLEECED! Horacio’s got a good arm, but he gives up homers bad. If he does get more consistency, though, he will be a good pick up for the M’s. He showed many times in Atlanta that he could be a very good pitcher, but still…the Mariners gave up essentially their closer of the future for a .500 starting pitcher. Personally, I would have gone for the bionic man of Mike Hampton…
December 7th, 2006 at 1:14 amFrom an Atlanta fan, I think that y’all got FLEECED!
Yeah. We know.
December 7th, 2006 at 1:29 amTotally agree…
It’s pretty much all been said.
Some career numbers to compare the 2. I include Soriano’s horrible dead arm 2004 numbers and his rookie year in which he made 8 starts that weren’t very quality, yet compare to Ramirez’ career. In fact I added Soriano Rookie year (10 games, 8 starts) as a comparison of the worst I would expect from him starting. Just consider he gave up 8 HR in those 8 starts (again Rookie year).
Player GO/AO WHIP SlugA OBPA BB/9 SO/9
Ramirez 1.77 1.40 .426 .339 3.45 4.28
Soriano 0.53 1.09 .346 .278 2.79 9.32
~2002 0.49 1.29 .443 .303 3.04 6.08
The only thing that looks better among Ramirez’ numbers is GO/AO. How are these two anywhere in the same class? How could anyone look at Soriano and not rather see him attempt to start with his talent over having Ramirez start for more money? This is the dumbest trade I’ve seen since Duquette was barely able to hold back the phrase “I said Varitek or Lowe. Soriano would appear to be a better starter from this evidence…Oh wait he’s 0-3 as a starter. Is W/L record really a good way to look at it?
I haveto hope there’s more to it, because I thought Woody was gone and we’d never see anything like this again.
December 7th, 2006 at 1:49 amTo be fair there’s some reason to believe that with Sorianos ‘dead-arm’ issues he might not hold up as a starter.
December 7th, 2006 at 1:58 amTo be fair there’s some reason to believe that with Sorianos ‘dead-arm’ issues he might not hold up as a starter.
There’s many teams that want to use Soriano as a closer. I doubt he ever makes it as a starter, that’s fine. He’s lights out in the 8th or 9th inning.
December 7th, 2006 at 2:07 amGoodbye 2007!
And 2008, 2009, 2010, etc. until this team is sold to someone who gives a crap.
December 7th, 2006 at 2:46 amThere’s many teams that want to use Soriano as a closer.
Totally. Alot of Seattle fans have envisioned him as an option to close for years, justifiably. He’s been second in line in the pen most of his years here. I’d rather see stuck at second string here than get a marginal player for a dominant endgame pitcher.
December 7th, 2006 at 2:58 amThis is a awesome site, but really, is it necesary to talk about the Ms so much?
December 7th, 2006 at 4:41 amJust to top things off, the Toronto Star is reporting that Bavasi has inquired about the availability of Josh Towers from the Jays.
Breathe….
Exhale…..
Yes, I just made that up…but in light of yesterday’s news, would anyone be surprised by this?
December 7th, 2006 at 5:35 amBTW, what is the status of that signing?
December 7th, 2006 at 5:44 amThis team makes it really hard to be a fan.
December 7th, 2006 at 5:57 amOkay, so I’m the eternal optimist, and don’t want to believe that Bavasi would do something that appears to be really stupid. So here’s my theory:
December 7th, 2006 at 6:41 amLike Soriano, Horacio Ramirez got hit in the head with a baseball last season.
Bavasi has secret knowledge that the hit in the head caused Ramirez to become a very good pitcher, a fact that no other GM’s figured out.
What bothers me the most is that I don’t see this as part of any sort of plan for the future. Bavasi clearly isn’t putting together a contending team for next year, neither is he stockpiling prospects for later. I don’t see the point of spackling a team together year after year so they can finish below .500. If we have to have a losing year, why not get something out of it?
At this point I think they ought to cash some veterans for prospects and build for the future.
December 7th, 2006 at 6:52 am#161: i corrected your post for you….
December 7th, 2006 at 7:05 amI know, I know… Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve been looking at this all backwards. Mr. Bavasi isn’t trying to make the M’s better. He’s helping the Dodgers get better. He could care less about the Mariners and thier future. He helped the Dodgers get rid of Beltre, and now somehow helped the Dodgers secure some great talent. Let see, Jason Schmidt and Luis Gonzalez… Guess what? I bet Bavasi will be there to pickup anyone the Dodgers need to dump too…Like Brad Penny. This is horrible… We were supposed to go out and get a good front line starter… This is what we come up with?
December 7th, 2006 at 7:11 amI’ve already stated I hate this deal and can’t for the life of me figure out what Bavasi is thinking. However…
I work with people in GA who are Braves fans. I mentioned this morning that they stole Soriano from us in this deal. One of the guys, who described himself as a Braves Pessimist, said that Ramirez is a very good pitcher that he expects to be a top-tier pitcher in the league…but that he’s experienced some health issues that have delayed his development the past couple of years. He said that if he can stay healthy, he thinks Mariner fans will be happy with him.
Okay…I’m grasping at straws here…but I need something to give me some hope that this will turn out good.
December 7th, 2006 at 7:12 amDo you wonder if the ownership group has closed the books on this year? Is it possible at some point this off-season they said “We missed on the players we wanted and things have gotten to expensive, we’re not one player away, so let’s minimize the damage by asking Bavasi to make a contending team this year without making a big contract deal or trading any major prospects.” This strategy would allow the incoming management team to have more flexibility next year and not start in a hole. Ownership also has the added bonus of pocketing the profits from this year and they have a GM for one more year that will shore up the minor league system before his departure. BTW I don’t consider Soriano a prospect anymore so he was fair game.
December 7th, 2006 at 7:17 amWell, at least we won’t have Gil Meche to kick around anymore. Fox Sports says…
December 7th, 2006 at 7:20 amBTW…Kudos to Dave for nailing this on the head…
Well, it wasn’t a ton of money, but it was throwing a great ballplayer for a Braves cast-off Horacio Ramirez.
December 7th, 2006 at 7:30 amBraves fan here. Just to respond to the above coment about HR being a potential “top-tier pitcher in the league,” I have watched this guy pitch basically every one of his ML starts and he has not really improved much over the years. The case could have been made after his 2004 season that he had some potential for improvement, but that promise is now so far gone that I can’t even remember the last time anyone was excited about him. This trade is a gift for the Braves, and I am just absolutely shocked that all Bavasi could get for Soriano is….HR. Unbelievable.
On a positive note, I always thought he’d make a good LOOGY, but that was really only to get him out of the rotation.
Sorry about this one, M’s fans.
December 7th, 2006 at 7:33 amCould be worse, we could have offered Meche 4 years and 45 mil.
December 7th, 2006 at 7:38 am165: He said that if he can stay healthy, he thinks Mariner fans will be happy with him. Hmmm. Where have I heard this before? Have we become the major league rehab assignment?
169: Same sentiment on this coast…
December 7th, 2006 at 7:39 amThe ONLY bright spot in that moves like this will ensure another last place finish for the Ms. Then, finally, we can get new management.
I choose to look at this the way Churchill would. This isn’t the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
At least we now know that next year will suck, and we can prepare ourselves for it. Let’s suffer through next year and all of the pain it will bring, get some new management, and start again.
December 7th, 2006 at 8:02 amjust two notes– John Thomson has been told they are looking at him as a fall-back plan, which is why he hasn’t been signed and Felix is not sitting on a sofa eating doritos. Well, he might be eating doritos, but he is also working out everyday at the Academy, per his GM.
December 7th, 2006 at 8:09 amthe closest thing to a big move they could get in on would be to light $100 million on fire by signing Barry Zito
which is the favorite choice of the radioheads– I just don’t understand why anyone thinks that Zito would come here.
December 7th, 2006 at 8:46 amGiving away our teams most valuable trading chip this offseason for Horacio Ramirez is inexcusable.
Its unfortunate that Bavasi just can’t seem to find value in the trade market, because it appears he’s (his team) done a decent job drafting the last couple of seasons and its helped put some valuable arms in the lower level of the system.
As it looks now, I have little faith in Bavasi making another solid move for a starting pitcher this winter. I can’t believe he’s not beating down the Cubs door trying to trade Reed to them for one of the extra young starting pitchers they have stockpiled.
Anyways, the way it looks now, we will probably see Hargrove and Bavasi fired around mid-season. Hopefully they’ll be able to hire a capable GM before the trading deadline, who might be able to make some solid moves for the 2008 season.
This trade just puts a horribly sour taste in my mouth. How is it that everyone in the world can see what a horrible trade this is, except for the M’s front office? Just pathetic. Can’t wait to hear the “spin” on this one from the press conference.
December 7th, 2006 at 8:49 amI can’t say I’m delighted by this trade, either, but the level of hyperbole has reached a level that I feel a need to play devil’s advocate.
I fear that some are blasting Bavasi for trading Soriano, the player we wish he was, instead of the player he actually is. We’re blaming Bavasi for not getting the value for the player that Soriano once looked that he could become, as if other teams would pay us for that player.
Soriano is a very talented, very fragile reliever who’s good for an inning or two per game for some portion of the season. Further, it seems pretty likely that there’s already an operating room picked out for him. He’s not a starter and I don’t think it’s realistic to ever think he’s going to become one.
If the shoe were on the other foot, what would you give up to acquire him? I would venture that if Bavasi had paid a significant price to obtain a player like Soriano, the site would have been filled with comments bemoaning the fact GMs will never understand that relievers are replaceable commodities, closers are overpaid, and teams should never pay high prices for a bullpen. People would have tripped over themselves to look up the number of games he’s missed. Then, the comment would likely end with a throw-away like “what can you expect from the dumbest team/GM in baseball?”
Should we have gotten more for Soriano? I don’t know. But these ideas that he was on the verge of being a starter or even high-valued trading chip are probably not right. Several years ago, when he was all potential the story might have been different. He’s not that player any more.
December 7th, 2006 at 9:21 amWell…
December 7th, 2006 at 10:19 ampeople can Manny Ramirez ManRam.
and Hanley Ramirez HanRam.
So do we get to call Horacio Ramirez HorRam at least?
Another in agreement that this deal was inexplicable.
I don’t believe Bavasi is the worst GM in baseball, but he does have a major flaw in talent/value evaluation. Saying he should never, ever make another trade is a bit extreme, but his inaction