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Miguel Batista
Ken Rosenthal reports that, barring a last minute change, the Mariners are expected to sign Miguel Batista to a deal expected to be for more than 3 years and $24 million.
This one is tough for me. I like Miguel Batista as a pitcher. I lobbied for the M’s to sign him several years ago, and he’s consistently underrated. He’s better than most of the guys who were on the market this winter. If you had forced me to sign free agent starting pitchers this winter, he’d have been near the top of the list of guys I would have gone after.
But context is also important, and in the case of the roster the Mariners have built, Miguel Batista is not what this team needs. He’s a durable guy that turns 36 in February who keeps the ball in the yard and won’t get you blown out of ballgames, but he doesn’t miss bats and has mediocre command. That package makes him a #4 starter on a team with a good rotation, but now, he’s the Mariners #2 starter. A three year contract would wrap him up through his age 38 season.
If the Batista signing comes through, the rotation will be Felix and four guys who profile as back of the rotation arms. They’ll be paying in excess of $20 million for Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez. That’s just poor roster construction, and the opportunity cost is just as large as the salary.
The M’s had a great opportunity to pick up undervalued pitching this winter. John Thomson, Rodrigo Lopez, and Angel Guzman could have provided the M’s with 90% of what they’ll get from Batista, Ramirez, and Baek and done so for 25% of the cost.
After a promising start to the offseason, with the Guillen signing, the avoidance of the crazy contracts being given out to bad pitchers, and the rumors of a John Thomson deal, this winter has gone to hell in a handbasket. And it only took about four days.
Antonetti in ‘08.
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THIS is their big free-agent signing? wow that’s great.
What I hate most is that I can’t really root for the team to do well because it will only prolong the current administration, but I can’t really bring myself to root against the team either. I’m having trouble deciding what exactly I’m rooting for to happen this year.
I still reject the assertion that the Guillen signing was a promising start.
Does this mean that signing Thomson is likely not to happen?
The more I look at it, the more I love the Guillen signing. That was one of the best deals any team signed this offseason.
The rest has just sucked, though.
To me, the Guillen signing only works if they clear a spot for him. Right now they have Sexson at 1B, Broussard at DH, and Ibanez in LF, so Guillen forces Snelling to the bench. And while Guillen > Snelling (perhaps), he’s not $5-8M better.
This seems like the pending Batista signing that you’re critical of. In a vaccuum, the Marines got reasonable value for $8M. But you can get (or have) almost as good a player for next to nothing. I’ve heard you say you “love the Guillen” signing a couple of times, but really haven’t heard a reason that stuck with me — though I’ll go re-read the original signing thread now.
I like Batista as well. I hope it happens, not because it is a great bargain, but because it will make the M’s at least marginally better than they were prior to Batista’s arrival. And I do prefer M’s wins to M’s losses.
Washburn, HoRam, Batista and Woods/Baek. And no more Raffy.
Wow.
What’s the staff going to average, 4.5 Ks a game?
To me, the Guillen signing only works if they clear a spot for him. Right now they have Sexson at 1B, Broussard at DH, and Ibanez in LF, so Guillen forces Snelling to the bench. And while Guillen > Snelling (perhaps), he’s not $5-8M better.
Let’s look at the possible scenarios here, assuming they don’t trade any of their OF/1B/DH guys.
1. Guillen plays well, team contends for division, Snelling plays fourth OF.
2. Guillen plays well, team does not contend for division, Guillen traded in July, Snelling takes over in second half.
3. Guillen does not play well, team does not contend, Snelling takes his job.
4. Guillen gets hurt, Snelling takes his job. Team may or may not contend.
Which of those scenarios are you not happy with at years end? Three of the four involve Snelling finishing the year as the everyday right fielder, and the other one involves the M’s in a pennant race.
Depth of good players isn’t a bad thing.
I like Batista as well. I hope it happens, not because it is a great bargain, but because it will make the M’s at least marginally better than they were prior to Batista’s arrival. And I do prefer M’s wins to M’s losses.
Opportunity cost.
as a one-time lit major, moving away from musicians to a published author could be a good thing…
If they do $8M for Batista, what is left to play with? Might they also get someone like Thomson for pitching depth?
Maybe they’re trying to change the way ballgames are pitched. Rather than a starter going 7-8 innings and turning it over to the pen (and paying them $100 Million), they’re collecting a bunch of guys that can go 4 or 5 innings for substantially less. Here’s what the M’s rotation would look like then.
Felix (we’ll let him stay the traditional 7-8 innings)
Washedup (L) and Beak (R)
Batista (R) and Woods (L)
Ramirez (L) and Green (R)
Lehr/White/Pineiro (R) and ????? (L)
I think they’re trying to go with the L/R combo throughout but that would leave us with one spot open to pickup another mediocre lefty to go 4 innings every fifth day. Maybe it’s being left open for one of the Tacoma boys.
Yes, Bavasi and Grover: Geniuses……changing 100 years of baseball one stupid trade at a time!
(Sorry…I couldn’t withhold the snicker after the Genius comment otherwise it would have been a masterful piece of sarcasm!)
So a reported $8mil. a year for three years. Trust me, you will not have any hair once the first year is up. I am also a Jays fan and talk about a frustrating experience. The thing that will get everyone the worst is once Batista gets shelled, he will blankly stare as runs mount up, Grover walks out to take the ball and then he walks off to the club house. NO EMOTION! You will feel my past pain as you yell at the TV for him to at least look like he is pissed that he is getting lit up.
But on a more serious note, from the depths of Wikipedia:
Aside from being a baseball player, Batista is known for his love of poetry and philosophy, and he has written a book of poetry in Spanish titled Sentimientos en Blanco y Negro. Batista also recently published The Avenger of Blood, a thriller about a serial killer.
YES!
So, the M’s have collected one of the most talented rosters ever in MLB history…it’s just that they’re not very talented at Baseball.
What’s the staff going to average, 4.5 Ks a game?
No at least when Felix pitches and as long as Putz is as good as last year then on games that we’re winning in a save situation we might average 5 Ks a game. And that’s what once every 15 games or so? But otherwise yes.
Perhaps Batista’s next novel will titled “The Igniter,” about a serial outs machine.
Puhleaze!!! That would be “El Encendidor!”
Let’s look at the possible scenarios here… Which of those scenarios are you not happy with at years end?
All of them
OK, seriously the scenarios where Guillen doesn’t play well or gets hurt and we pay him $5.5M doesn’t make me happy. Obviously those are risks with any acquisition but looking at Guillen’s 2006, his odds of those are a bit higher than average.
If Guillen has a big year leading us to a playoff race, I’m happy though to some degree that depends how BIG his year is and what Snelling and Broussard do. I.e., what’s his incremental value.
If we wind up with a good player and trade him, I’m minimally happy I guess. I confess I hadn’t thought about potential trade value of a good contract. That said, people aren’t exactly beating down the Cubs door for Jacque Jones (and that’s a great contract now) and do you really trust the M’s to get good value in a trade?
I see the value in depth. I guess I’d prefer to see a true 4th OF at less cost than someone who pushes players I believe in — Snelling and Broussard — to the bench.
That said, if we do figure out how to trade Broussard (and if Lopez wasn’t a good enough return, I don’t have much faith), this is all moot.
#9:
Looking at the available opportunities out there, I’d have to say that missing out on them isn’t much of a cost.
#16– or about a serial killer targeting a serial outs machine….
what about the senario where the m’s are playing .400 ball, decide that snelling deserves a look, and they sit guillen. guillen is signed to an incentive laden contract that is dependent on AB’s. do you think he is going to be okay with leaving up to 3.5 green on the field so the youngsters can play? i normally approve of incentive contracts, but does guillen really need 3.5 million reasons to go crazy over playing time?
When signing Jose Guillen is your most sparkling offseason move, you are in serious trouble. My, how this organization has fallen from grace.
Not to beat the Soriano/Ramirez trade any further to a pulp…but I just saw this little note in the Baltimore Sun Times.
How about this scenario:
M’s keep Soriano. M’s trade Broussard (clearing the logjam at 1B and DH). M’s receive Rodrigo Lopez.
Doesn’t that scenario look better than Soriano for Ramirez?
I can appreciate that they wanted to get a hard thrower in Wright, but don’t you go back to the O’s before you trade Soriano and do the Lopez deal?
Guillen is roughly Ichiro’s size, 5′11 165. He just had Tommy John Surgery and the expectations are that he will play rf and bat in the middle of the line up and have a strong armed presence in right field.
The expectations strain credibility. What are his offensive performances in this park? OPS and the power portion of that?
You suggest four possible outcomes for the acquisition. Three of them are meaningless in terms of the Ms going forward. I’m not sure if that was part of your intent, but doesn’t it suggest that the acquisition is nothing more than wasted money and noise?
You note that, “this winter has gone to hell in a handbasket. And it only took about four days…” This deal just seems to be foreshadowing to that and in the offchance that it works, it does nothing to forestall another bad year. Whistling in the dark, more or less.
#24: Anyone who believes that physical description of Guillen hasn’t looked at him since he was about 21 years old. Guillen is closer to 195 lbs than he is 165 lbs.
23: Lopez isn’t a young lefty.
Noted, drawn from Baseball Almanac. How has he done in Safeco?
Anyone who believes Ichiro is 5′11″ didn’t see him measuring himself back-to-back with Omar Vizquel back in 2002 or so.
Noted, drawn from Baseball Almanac. How has he done in Safeco?
The scenario that terrifies me is Guillen OBPing .320, Safeco eating all his power, and Hargrove not having the guts to bench him - i.e. Everett 2.0. We can get that kind of “depth” for the league minimum.
I’m probably overreacting - I’m just so sick of free-swingers on this team.
I don’t know that I have ever seen Ichiro listed at 5′11″. That lofty height is usually reserved for infielders like MacLemore, Edgar, Lampkin and Rafael Bournigal.
#22–When signing Jose Guillen is your most sparkling offseason move, you are in serious trouble. My, how this organization has fallen from grace.
we aren’t the only ones.
“Now, the 12 days of Christmas beckon and the Angels still haven’t given their fans the major acquisition promised. No power-hitting third baseman. No slugging designated hitter. No outfielder capable of bench-pressing Laguna Beach. So, folks, the question is this: No hope, either?”
Dave, if the choice was Batista at 3/24 or Schmidt at 3/47, do you take Batista (for essentially half the price)?
I think almost everyone would have taken Schmidt at 3/47
esp. the Mariners and the ‘boatload’ they are said to have offered …
Dave, if the choice was Batista at 3/24 or Schmidt at 3/47, do you take Batista (for essentially half the price)?
Angel Guzman for 1 year, $300,000.
#31,
I just read that article, outside of the first sentence which is essentially written to set up the story it’s not at all ripping the team but rather popping the owner for having made a mistake opening his piehole.
The article ends on a very positive note. Hardly a fall from grace.
Yeah, unfortunately “none of the above” was not on Bavasi’s off-season SAT test.
#36– no, but he does mention the (valid or not) unrest among the fans….
#35: whats stopping them from still targeting Guzman in trade?
39. intelligence
So are the M’s still targeting Zito after this pickup? According to that article we appear to be. Or is the pickup of HoRAM and Batista the sum of our pitching changes for the off season?
Oh, and the departure of Soriano of course. :’(
HoRam and FHer in the same rotation. Nice.
HoRam and FHer in the same rotation. Nice.
And, on the other side of the ledger, WillBlo.
I think the root of the problem is the way the M’s have decided at the top to operate within a predetermined budget. It seems like they decide before the offseason what they’re going to spend and then look for players who fit within the budget. As a result, even when it would make competitive sense to sign a particular player (say Schmidt for 3 years), they aren’t prepared to be flexible and go outside their budget. By the same token, they are bound and determined to spend whatever they’ve got in their budget, even when the players available aren’t what they really need (Batista). It seems to me that unless you’re the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox or Dodgers with huge budgets to spend, this is a formula for perpetual mediocrity. That said, I think Bavasi could have done a lot better even within these constraints. Adios Bill……..
Three years for Bautista sounds about right. By then Morrow and Feierabend should be established in the rotation with Felix and Butler will be ready to go. Washburn will be done by then, as well, if he isn’t already traded.
Is Bavasi specifically looking at stats such as GB% and calculating that pitchers with a high GB% will thrive with the current M’s infield defense (Sexson not included)? Every pitcher signed or acquired fits this mold. Even Thomson fits the mold. If true, I like that part of Bavasi’s plan.
And in response to #45 — Budget restrictions might be well beyond Bavasi’s control. Maybe his descriptions of the winter meetings reflect his anger at the lack of power he does not have over the team’s financial flexibility.
This is two different concepts. I don’t think the M’s made a bad decision to sign Batista to this contract if their other option was Gil Meche at a much larger premium. In the context of this market, their opportunity cost, in dollars, is low. I have no idea what Angel Guzman would cost in a trade, and if they can get him cheap they should still trade for him, but I don’t see how this is negated by the Batista signing. As you said, having too many talented players isn’t a problem. In terms of using the rotation spot, the thing about Guzman is he is a major health risk. He left a AAA game last year when he was cruising (something like 3.0 IP, 8k, 1bb) with “forearm tightness.” He pitched very poorly at two levels from that day forward. He’s also missed large chunks of other years with shoulder injuries. Chances are if you gave him a rotation spot, he’d probably vacate it early on and you’d be back at square one.
Also, while Guzman shows flashes of decent control, he still has poor command.
Tell that to the As and Twins. I wouldn’t knock the club for having a yearly budget, as any smart business must do. Its clearly how intelligently you spend that budget that counts most, and this is where the Mariners lag behind many other teams.
Projecting that far into the future with young pitchers is usually futile. Further, they drafted Morrow as a reliever (why, oh why?).
No more soft tossers, please! Let’s get some guys who can miss bats!
So are the M’s still targeting Zito after this pickup? According to the article we appear to be.
I think they might pursue him but not as much as we were before. I think they’ll wait and see what other teams offer him first and if it’s not too high they’ll submit an offer.
#50– they did?
Three years for Bautista sounds about right. By then Morrow and Feierabend should be established in the rotation with Felix and Butler will be ready to go. Washburn will be done by then, as well, if he isn’t already traded.
Yeah, and people said that Ryan Anderson and Joel Piñeiro would make us set for starting pitching for a LONG time back in 2001, and people raved about Nageotte and Blackley. Please, let’s not project people THIS quickly. Three years is a lifetime when it comes to pitching prospects.
My problem is that this signing is 8 million not available for better pitchers NEXT offseason or in 2009, absent a trade- for a guy who’s basically a 4.80-5.00 xFIP, back of the rotation starter. That’s what Dave is driving at with “opportunity cost”. There’s also the possibility that you could hold 4-5 million dollars out of the budget, and be prepared to drop serious money on a QUALITY starter at the All-Star break if you are within reasonable distance of a playoff berth, if you don’t like the options available to you now.
Thomson would be a considerably better signing on a one year deal (plus innings-based incentive option, if necessary). For a name that Dave hasn’t mentioned, Tomo Ohka might also be worth a one-year flyer, as a stopgap option in the rotation, if you could get him. There really is very little reason to sign decent/mediocre players for long-term contracts, when slightly less decent candidates are usually available for MUCH cheaper and don’t lock your roster down for years to come.
53. Well Pineiro was actually pretty good his first couple of years so you can’t really blame them. Besides what about free agents for next year? If Ichiro doesn’t resign that’s a huge chunk of money that we can spend on somebody else.
Unfortunately, I agree with M’sCup (30), that the most likely scenario for Guillen is:
3b. Guillen does not play well, team does not contend, Hargrove lets him play anyway.
Looking at the Guillen deal, I love the idea, and the thought process - ie, undervalued bat on a low-cost, 1-year plus an option. Great.
The problem I have is in the implementation - I think Jose Guillen was the wrong guy to take that flyer on. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I just don’t see him succeeding next year.
The pattern I see Bavasi falling into is not that he has bad ideas - he’s got a lot of great ideas - GB pitchers, short-term deals, trading for the Cleveland DH platoon. Even Horacio Ramirez, as an extra arm is not, by itself a bad idea. The problems I see are that he a) picks the wrong guys to fill those ideas (Spiezio, Everett, Washburn, Guillen), and 2) he overpays like hell (Spiezio, Everett, Washburn, Benuardo, Ramirez, etc.)
Remember when we were asked how we would spend the remaining $10 million? I don’t think this was on anyone’s list. We coulda got the same result for a lot less money (and the aforementioned lost opportunity cost). ’sigh’
why not pavano instead? yanks don’t have a spot in the rotation for him, they would probably pay a nice chunk of his salary. mariners need upside. batista is a lower risk low ceiling player. that is what you need when you have a squad that is close. m’s need high ceiling guys. they need to catch lightning in a bottle (if they are actually trying to win with what they have)at least until they establish a legit rotation. pavano at just under 20/2 (assuming ny picks up a couple mill) is the kind of bold move i would rather see the m’s make. it is still relatively low risk; two year deal.
This is two different concepts. I don’t think the M’s made a bad decision to sign Batista to this contract if their other option was Gil Meche at a much larger premium.
The cost of Gil Meche has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion, and the decision was never Batista vs Meche.
In the context of this market, their opportunity cost, in dollars, is low.
I’m not sure you understand opportunity costs. The dollars, or Batista’s salary, is actual cost. The opportunity cost is the 200 innings they’re going to give to a 36-year-old starter that can’t be used a high-reward flyer like Guzman, as well as the lost chance to acquire an even better starting pitcher in the free agent market next winter.
I have no idea what Angel Guzman would cost in a trade, and if they can get him cheap they should still trade for him, but I don’t see how this is negated by the Batista signing.
Because the Batista signing would limit the amount of innings available to give to young pitchers.
In terms of using the rotation spot, the thing about Guzman is he is a major health risk.
Every pitcher is. Guzman is higher risk than most, but the cost is so low that the risk/reward pendulum is better with a guy like him than it is with a guy like Batista.
Chances are if you gave him a rotation spot, he’d probably vacate it early on and you’d be back at square one.
That’s why I’ve suggested that the Mariners acquire a horde of Guzman types. I’d have been fine going into the season with a group of guys like Guzman, Rodrigo Lopez, Cha Baek, Tim Redding, and Ryan Feierabend fighting for two or three spots. If one gets hurt or sucks, you simply go to the next guy in line, and the cost of the failed pitcher is negligible.
Since nobody else has answered the “how has Guillen done in Safeco” question….
Take this with massive doses of small sample size caveats, but Guillen’s career numbers at Safeco are mediocre: 19 games, 69 ABs, .246/.278/.420 (.698 OPS).
That said, the reports I read say that Guillen likes to go the other way (I haven’t seen that backed up by hit charts, which actually seem to show the opposite, at least last year), and the “scouting” section of his ESPN player page shows he does like pitches away, so he might not be hurt as much by Safeco as some RH hitters.
Miguel Batista is not “Wrss Fhccna“. I’m surprised, I really thought they’d go for someone with more intangible credentials.
50 & 52 - From what I’ve gathered the Mariners see Morrow as a starter but many (most?) baseball people see him as a reliever. I guess we’ll find out.
I get the impression that everyone who’s in support of this signing thinks that the contract would be for 3 years and $24 million, while that is actually the offer on the table from the Royals, according to Rosenthal. It’s… obviously going to cost the Mariners more than that to sign him.
Oh man, am I afraid to find out how much more…
maybe it’s because they’d have to arm-wrestle the NL for Wrss Fhccna
#59 Good show.
That is probably what we’ll get. Warning track power into a cavern.
Not only are the Safeco numbers a small sample size, they struggle from selection bias since they were accumulated against just one team. They’re worthless.
Guillen, if healthy, is a good bet to hit something like .270/.320/.460 and play average or slightly above average defense in right field. In Safeco, that’s a two win player.
If he hits .300/.340/.500, which is certainly within the realm of possibility, he’s a 4 win player, and the team would have paid him $8 million for that performance. $2 million per marginal win, in this market, is a freaking steal.
No, but he IS Ongvfgn.
Also, I suspect that the buzzards circling around Bavasi’s head will get more numerous, since the FA signings and roster moves for 2006-2007 (assuming Ongvfgn is our man) will be…
- one 27 year old P with a career high of 12 wins and an ERA the last two years around 4.50 (Ramirez), and one 36 year old P with a career high of 11 wins and a CAREER ERA around 4.50.
- an often-injured FA who’s on his 9th organization in 11 years.
Manny and Schmidt, this ain’t.
#67– of course, I doubt the F.O. was expecting Manny, and I assume they understand about losing Schmidt, as it happened before…
#67, ec — Are the buzzards circling because of fan discontent and a “need” for change, or because Bavasi has put the organization even further behind their AL competitors? It might be the latter, but I suspect the former is what gives off the scent of carrion.
What happened this offseason? Blaming Bavasi seems easy, but I’m wondering if the ownership decided to tighten the budget at a time at exactly the wrong moment. I can see Bavasi going 5/75 for Schmidt if the money was there.
I’m not letting Bavasi off the hook for this disaster of an offseason, but there has to be something happening with the ownership’s liquidity/tightwadness we don’t know about.
Lets say the M’s FO isn’t just pandering to fans that want to hear they’re trying to do something and they really will try to make a play for Zito (for better or worse).
How on earth would they be able to do so, given their own usual self imposed budget limits?
#70– the only other $ amount for Schmidt that has been floated so far was 3/$48M offer from the Orioles. Bavasi has characterized their offer as ‘a boatload of money’, and FWIW, the Contra Costa Times has this quote:
“It had been expected that Schmidt would wait until after Barry Zito signed before he chose a team, but Schmidt said he felt comfortable with the Dodgers - particularly Colletti and trainer Stan Conte, both former Giants employees - and said that a contract longer than three years was not necessary. “There were definitely longer offers out there,” Schmidt said. “Three years was something I was comfortable with. I don’t know where my career will take me after three years.”
“and I assume they understand about losing Schmidt as that has happened before.”
On a broad philosophical note, I would like to a whole lot LESS “understanding” applied to these deals. Understanding breeds acceptance and this off-season and these deals have been unacceptable. It’s time for the powers that be to bring the responsible parties into their office and ask, “Say what?”
OK, since nobody else is asking, I’ll be the one to do it.
Who the hell is Wrss Frccna? or however you spell it? Whats the story behind weird made-up names instead of real pitchers’ names?
On a broad philosophical note, I would like to a whole lot LESS “understanding” applied to these deals. Understanding breeds acceptance and this off-season and these deals have been unacceptable. It’s time for the powers that be to bring the responsible parties into their office and ask, “Say what?”
yes, but you can’t force someone to take your money.
RE 74: It was a placeholder in a pitching staff discussion. We’ve since taken the joke and run with it. It’s one of the things that makes this site so entertaining. (P.S. follow the hyperlink)
A little from column A, a little from column B. Basically, this is is going to come off in the sports media (press/sports radio) and the vast majority of the fanbase as Jarrod Washburn/Carl Everett II, Electric Boogaloo, where the Mariners settle for mediocre free agent leftovers.
It’s going to be VERY hard to pass this off as legitimate improvement on the 2006 rotation- especially as what you can expect out of Batista and Ramirez isn’t likely to represent improvement on what we got out of Moyer and Meche in 2006:
2006 ERA/xFIPs:
Moyer (as Mariner): 4.39/5.32
Meche: 4.55/4.79
Ramirez: 4.48/4.94
Batista: 4.58/4.88
Looking at it, we’ve traded some FB/GB ratio for extra bases on balls (Moyer has the best control of all of them, by a large margin).
Another way to look at this is that we had the worst pitching in the division, while playing in the best pitcher’s park in the division:
AL West Runs allowed, 2006
OAK 727
LAA 732
TEX 784
SEA 792
If you figure that we needed to lop 50 runs off the pitching to even have a chance, we’re basically down to needing some combination of Felix’s impersonation of Pedro and posting an era in the mid to low 2’s, or having one of the other pitchers have an Elmer Dessesn/Ryan Franklin fluke year where the xFIP is a run or more over ERA/runs allowed because everyone’s hitting “at’em balls”. While these things do happen, that’s a pretty tall order.
Simply put, Bavasi needed to improve the rotation more than he did.
Very good point #77.
I would have settled for Rura MkleM.
John Lackey?
Ehen Zxyrz? Care to share your encryption method?
Rotoworld remarks that Rafael Soriano’s velocity is down, and he got tagged for a lot of runs in dominican winter ball. See I had a feeling that after getting hit in the head like that, he might be more afraid on the mound. I don’t think Horacio Ramirez is very good…but considering what not very good pitchers get on this market, a baseline of 7 million for 3 years (Jason Marquis), then it might be good value. Talent this year costs a lot from a talent perspective and a money perspective.
What I know of Miguel Batista when he was on the Jays is, don’t let him close. And your not, so that’s a good thing. He was shaky. Apparently he read philosophy books. He’s a good innings eater. He could do well in that park.
Mariner logic must’ve gone something like this:
Meche: 11-8, 4.48 ERA = 5 yrs/$55M
Batista: 11-8, 4.58 ERA = 3 yrs/$25-30M
Bavasi = “We’re getting a steal! Batista had the EXACT same record and near-identical ERA as Meche, and we’re only signing him for 3 years! Plus he has a World Series ring! Now THAT’S Moneyball, Seattle-style!”
#82– Rotoworld quotes an Atlanta columnist quoting scouts; see also Lookout Jeff on the same subject (A Brief Soriano Winterball Timeline)
Yes, the price of talent this year is high– so why did the Braves only have to give up Horacio to get Rafi?
82, could be, but thought that Jeff Sullivan’s post on the subject made it seem a lot more like Soriano is just fine. I guess we’ll find out, but I’m not sure Rotoworld knows what they’re talking about. Pretty small sample one way or the other.
All of this really points, to me, for the need to be able to build your rotation from within. I hope we get a lot better at doing that over the next few years because to contend in ‘08 and ‘09 we’re going to need to get some really good cheap innings out of some young flamethrowers, methinks.
It really hurts to know I’ll never get to see Soriano as a starter for us. I didn’t quite realize how much I was still hoping that would work out. Could very well be silly, but with all the talk of Papelbon being moved back to the rotation in part to protect his health…it hurts me.
Or I would haved settled for Crggie Nae.
Oops, sorry for the double-post on the LL link.
Wrss Fhccna = Jeff Suppan
oh, well, if Greg Johns says go get Zito….
yay!! Mailbag time! I do appreciate the tact Corey Brock shows when dealing with questions like “Why didn’t Seattle pursue Gil Meche more aggressively given the need for starting pitching? Meche is coming off a “breakout” season in 2006″
Yes but I’m willing to bet those numbers would put him somewhere between the 75th and 90th percentile when Pecota is updated….so while within the realm of possible, its not that likely (he hasn’t actually put up numbers like that in his whole career with the exception of 90 games for the Reds in ‘03 though he came close in ‘04 before essentially being kicked off the Angels). More likely, Safeco will tame the savage right-handed hitting hopefully healthy beast.
The list of non-tenders will be out soon and it will be interesting to evaluate the Ms offseason thus far when it does…
i.e. guys like Wilkerson and Mench or even Victor Zambrano (all rumored to be candidates) might make you wonder why the Ms traded a Soriano or signed a Guillen….
What happened to signing Thomson?
Uh, yeah. And what it might’ve looked like out of Atlanta if we would’ve held on to Soriano for a few more days…
95: I wonder if HoRam would have been..actually..I dont wanna know! jk…but I wish we didnt freak out at the Winter Meetings, and apparently freak out in signing an old pitcher for 3 yrs
Does anyone have a sense how much Chaves, the pitching coach, has anything to do with us acquiring Ramirez & Batista?
#91: “Breakout,” for Gil Meche, as in acne?
HAAAAA HA HA. ACNE… Nice one!
I really like Gil, but you’re right. What “Breakout”. I think you mean, he had a notably better season than he had had previously and made it through without getting hurt.
#93, 95– well, the Braves are talking about non-tendering Marcus Giles… does Joel get non-tendered?
With our luck, yes. And then Bavasi turns right around and signs him for 3/$24…
Of course Pineiro gets non-tendered. We put a $6.5 million albatross around our necks when we signed him last time.
Matthew Carruth: I think almost everyone would have taken Schmidt at 3/47
This is back up the thread a ways, but I thought it was an interesting point. I’d take Batista and it isn’t that close. But like Dave “none of the above” is my real choice.
Schmidt is $8M/year more. For $8M we should get 3+ wins, 3+ wins is 30 runs, and 30 runs over 200 innings works out to an ERA difference of 1.50. I can’t see how Schmidt outpitches Batista by that much — 3.50 to 5.00 would be a best case for Schmidt and a worst case for Batista. My non-so-scientific guess would be 4.10 and 4.80.
MLB inflation is at 10% per year. While I suppose a market correction is possible, inflation at least suggests that it is unlikely, or if it does occur, will not likely be dramatic. How many years in a row now have we gasped at how ridiculous the market is? Its starting to look like a trend, good folks.
So lets say the market actually does correct itself next year and we see “TOR caliber” free agents signing 4/40 type deals. If and when that happens, I would agree that the final two years of Batista’s contract would be sunk opportunity cost. However, I don’t think its safe to call such a scenario likely.
My point? We don’t actually make the signings (unfortunately), so lets save our condemning for hindsight.
Anyway, I do like this signing if only because it means not signing Zito to a franchise crushing 6/96 deal. Now THAT is opportunity cost.
Well, we can look forward to the ‘09-’10 offseason, where Washburn and Batista are off the books…
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MLB inflation is at 10% per year.
It doesn’t seem to be as simple as that, or the year after A-Rod got 10/$250m and Manny got 7/$160, someone would have gotten 10/$275m and someone else 8/$176m.
Instead, there was a correction in 2002 when owners non-tendered a bunch of players, and supply of FA’s temporarily outstripped demand. I don’t think that 10% annual inflation is a rule you can count on.
Contrary position:
If all these pitchers they’re signing and are going to sign possess marked groundball tendencies as claimed, and continue to, and if Lopez, Betancourt & Beltre field as well as we believe, these moves could, short term, be taken for genius.
Perhaps the 10% figure is the average over the last 6 years? I’d be curious to see a compilation, with summary numbers, of most/all FA signings over the last 8 years.
Done deal pending a physical, for 3/$24m+, says the Times.
meh… not a great move at all, but it could have been worse I guess… at least it will improve the team a little bit, obviously that slight upgrade is no where near worth the money but this is not the first time…
I don’t think you’re going to like Guillen’s PECOTA, Dave. He’s right-handed he’s never drawn more than 40 walks. Safeco is going to be his daddy.
Oh, and the MLB inflation goes up and down. I think Glassko at Hardball Times uses 10% as his average rate.
Nate Silver has this year’s rate at 47% over last year. Based on what another BP’er Maury Brown said, it should be up something south of half that because the higher revenue teams have to give away less of their money or something like that.
Sounds like a real winner for the Mariners … or a real whiner! Take your pick, I’m not happy about it.
The year to year inflation of free agent salaries at around 10% is completely and utterly unsustainable. That’s not even arguable.
The collective bargaining agreement has set inflation for the league minimum salary at 22% over the course of the next five years. Inflation for replacement level players is set at about 5% per year.
When you look at signing bonuses for drafted players and international signees, it’s even less than that, thanks to the commissioner’s office holding the line on “recommended slot money” for draftees. Inflation for acquiring amateur players is around 2 to 3 percent.
Free agent inflation cannot continue to outpace league minimum inflation and amateur acquisition inflation at this rate. At some point, even MLB general managers will be able to figure out that the relative cost of a free agent is so far out of line with his actual value that they’ll resort to trading for players already under contract, because it will be cheaper to restock the farm system than it will be to sign a player to a new deal. And then the demand for free agents will go down, their prices will drop, and we’ll see a market correction. It’s an inevitable cycle.
So no, 10% annual inflation on salaries is completely and utterly unsustainable, and any team using that kind of projection for future salaries deserves all the bad contracts they’re going to get.
I would have loved signing Batista 3 years ago to a 3 year deal as a #4 or #5 deal..just in the perspective we all have of this offseason, its a pretty horrid deal…we all thought signing Schmidt to a 4 year deal was too long for a 32 year old, but a 3 year deal to a 36 year old with a ridiculous WHIP concerns me.
I do like Batista..but not when he becomes our #3 pitcher..haha
Its been sustained for along time now and new money keeps coming in. I don’t know if you’ve checked the new pocket schedules out or not, but ticket prices are going up again. Another 10%. I seriously doubt we’ll be seeing a plateau in the free agent market until we get a major national recession.
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The most alarming thing to me about this latest roster move is the impact it has on the payroll flexibility for 2008. Assuming Ichiro is re-signed for a similar salary beyond 2007, the M’s are looking at shedding only Jose Guillen’s contract at the end of the year. That’s not a lot of money to play with. Even non-tendering guys like Broussard and Ramirez will likely only free up about $12 million total.
As bad as this winter has been, next year could be a lot worse. Another last place finish and no money to spend.
I was hoping for 2009. Looks like it will be 2010 instead.
Hey, quick question, Larry Larue notes Batista and two others are considered “projects”. Huh? $8 Mil for a project for 3 years? Is he injured or why would this be????
#118– he answers it in his next line– Larue considers him a project because “… Batista has never won more than 11 games in a season and had an ERA under 4.00 twice in his career.”
Well the only good thing this signing has brought is that it has brought all of us fans together. We know now that despite how much we like or dislike the Mariners we know that all of us hate Bill Bavasi.
Oops, thanks. I guess I locked up on reading that, my error. I suppose this means we’ll read endless articles about arm slot changes and stuff…
Back to work which I should have been doing anyway!
Kirby Arnold and Andriesen both talked with BP about Batista
#113– FWIW, the age quote was in the context of working with much younger pitchers…
Yikes! That’s not a great reference. It’s about as bad as this one:
The best part of that Cox quote is that he doesn’t even feign enthusiasm for the guy.