2007 AL West Rough Comparison Chart
For your enjoyment and discussion of the relative merits of these teams, I decided to throw up this depth chart I was sketching out today. I’m sure after posting this I’ll immediately start to fix it, and there are a number of issues I don’t think are entirely sorted out yet – like in LAoA, I put Rivera in the field and Anderson at DH, but that may be flipped. Likewise, I’m guessing McPherson finally takes over at third, and Figgins returns to being a useful version of Bloomquist, but that may be premature. And — well, you’ll see. I’m also neglecting bench players, etc, and the rotations/bullpens are shots in the dark.
| Seattle | Oakland | LA of A | Texas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Johjima | Kendall | Napoli | Laird |
| 1B | Sexson | Johnson | Morales | Teixeira |
| 2B | Lopez | Ellis | Kendrick | Kinsler |
| SS | Betancourt | Crosby | Cabrera | Young |
| 3B | Beltre | Chavez | McPherson | Blalock |
| LF | Ibanez | Swisher | Rivera | Wilkerson |
| CF | Ichiro! | Kotsay | Matthews | Lofton |
| RF | Guillen | Bradley | Guerrero | Cruz (Cat?) |
| DH | Vidro | Piazza | Anderson (?) | Catalanotto |
| SP | Hernandez | Harden | Lackey | Milwood |
| SP | Washburn | Loaiza | Santana | Padilla |
| SP | Batista | Haren | Weaver | Tejeda |
| SP | Ramirez | Blanton | Escobar | Volquez |
| SP | Baek/Woods | Halsey (?) | Saunders/? | Rheinecker |
| CL | Putz | Street | Rodriguez | Gagne |
| RP | Mateo | Duchsherer | Shields | Otsuka |
| RP | Sherrill | Embree | Oliver | Mahay |
| RP | O’Flaherty | Flores | Speier | Bauer |
| RP | Green | Calero | Carrasco | Benoit |
| RP | Baek/Woods/Wood/Huber | Gaudin | Resop/Bootcheck/? | Rupe/etc |
I feel like I’ve been too close to the team’s bad moves: this division’s going to be competitive, and even a team like the M’s where it’s extremely unlikely they break 85 wins, might find themselves in the hunt.
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75 Responses to “2007 AL West Rough Comparison Chart”
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Just a few quick comments/responses, Dave…
I agree that 473 major league appearances brings up sample size issues in terms of performance. However, part of the justification for my position on Kinsler was also his minor league performance, which, given his age and level, was consistent with the way he hit in the majors in 2006…his minor league performance suggests, to me, that his 2006 performance in the majors is a fairly accurate reflection of his abilities.
Defensively, I think you are right about him being stiff, and that probably would have led to him being moved off of shortstop anyway. I think the footwork issues are something that will improve as he plays more second base, particularly on the pivot and on quick throws, where he seemed to have some issues in 2006.
I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.
#49: As far as comparing Kinsler’s road splits to Lopez’s Home splits.
Lopez plays in a park that is extreme against right handed hitters. Kinsler’s road stats “should” essentially give you a park neutral result. So like you say, FWIW, I’d say its not a very worthwhile comparison.
If you wanted to compare something more closer to park neutral results (given the small sample sizes we are dealing with) you’d compare Kinsler’s road stats with Lopez’s road stats, where Lopez clearly has the advantage. However I will caviot that Lopez does get a bit of a benefit from having his road stats include games in TBIA while Kinsler’s includes games at Safeco. That said, each players results in the opposing teams home stadiums were pretty bad last year, negatiting the overall impact.
I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.
Sure, me too. But I’m on record as saying Michael Young is probably the most overrated player in the game, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?
Cano>Iguchi>Hill>Kendrick>Roberts>Lopez/Kinsler.
That’s the way I see it.
From Kinsler’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Oklahoma City (595 PA):
.245/.309/.400 EqA .248
And from Lopez’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Tacoma:
.288/.315/.448 EqA .254
Advantage, Lopez
52 – I totally agree with all of that. I guess what I was trying to say was that even though Kinsler sucked half the time, so did Lopez.
I haven’t studied park factors and their application to individual players, but the Lopez’s home split last year seems misleading, in terms of how people expect Safeco to hamper righties. In 2006 he was quite the groundball/infield fly hitter, and that wasn’t Safeco’s fault (was it?). Like Lonestar implied earlier, I don’t think you can just apply park factors to stats without taking into account a hitter’s tendencies and style.
This goes back to why after this year I dropped my lofty expectations for Lopez. I wanted to see a hint that those minors doubles numbers meant something, but his groundball tendencies (Hargrove induced?) and short home runs really made me question if dealing with his low OBP and below average defense is worth it.
Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?
I heart Howie Kendrick. He’s the best second baseman in baseball in a couple of years.
Actually, I’m pretty sure that Lopez’s second half grounder binge was coaching’s fault.
58 – Advantage Lopez, in 2005. You can prove almost anything with selective sampling.
Without wanting to say anything overall about Kinsler and Lopez, I will say that a six-point difference in translated EQA for one season is hardly worth saying either player was better than the other. It’s a statistical dead heat.
oh my effing god
go over to espn.com and check out the ‘what’s ahead for zito and mariners’ video clip. Bavasi gets REAMED about Vidro.
well, it is Keith Law again.
Ichiro, Felix, or Putz goes down for anything over two weeks and the M’s are flat out screwed.
Anyone hear about the Lions fans organized protest? I doubt it will do anything, but if it does, maybe we could do the same. Basically, they plan to get up with 8:57 left in the 2nd quarter, go to the main atrium and chant.
how will that be different from any other Lions game?
DMZ, I share similar tidings over on my blog. the one thing I wanted to find more than anything under my tree this off-season was a front-line starter. sadly, it was not to be. alas….
Here’s the projected A’s roster, barring trades, signings, ect…
C1 Kendall
1B Johnson
2B Ellis
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
LF Swisher
CF Kotsay
RF Bradley
DH Piazza
C2 Melhuse
IF Scutaro
OF Kielty
3B Perez
OF Goleski (DL/R5)
SP Harden
SP Haren
SP Loaiza
SP Blanton
SP Kennedy
CL Street
RP Duchscherer
RP Calero
RP Embree
RP Gaudin
RP Saarloos
RP Marshall (R5) / Flores
Good Beane move today:
Invite Durazo to Spring Training.
Why not? Guy is tearing up the Mexican league.
Low risk, high reward…
64 – makes me want to cry
Iguchi is a VERY solid 2B, not many guys can provide that kind of consistency offensively and defensively. He is my idea of the ideal #2 spot guy, he knows his job.
And yeah, he did that amazing wacky throw to first base :O
71. Durazo is a high reward guy? Since when? More like he’s a low-risk signing for a chance of helping the big league club if Piazza goes down.
73. In his last full season (2004) Durazo put up a .321/.396/.523 line (EqA .303). He had TJ surgery in July 2005. If he’s going to recover (not a given, certainly, but a possibility), it’ll be this season, and he’ll only be 33. If he gets back to what he did 3 years ago, I’d call that a pretty high reward.
on Kotchman: that may be the team’s direction, but I can’t imagine that it’s as sure as that. I’ve followed Kotchman for years, and while we can talk about whether it’s the injuries or not, just just hasn’t hit like a top offensive prospect in a long time. Have the Angels made any statements that the job’s his to lose? Because while I haven’t seen any forecasts, I would bet PECOTA etc are a lot more optimistic about Morales than Kotchman.
He hasn’t hit like that because he hasn’t been healthy to do it. Mono isn’t a debilitating disease, and Kotch has always had good OBP’s, something other Angels hitters haven’t had. His downside looks like Mark Grace.