2007 AL West Rough Comparison Chart
For your enjoyment and discussion of the relative merits of these teams, I decided to throw up this depth chart I was sketching out today. I’m sure after posting this I’ll immediately start to fix it, and there are a number of issues I don’t think are entirely sorted out yet – like in LAoA, I put Rivera in the field and Anderson at DH, but that may be flipped. Likewise, I’m guessing McPherson finally takes over at third, and Figgins returns to being a useful version of Bloomquist, but that may be premature. And — well, you’ll see. I’m also neglecting bench players, etc, and the rotations/bullpens are shots in the dark.
| Seattle | Oakland | LA of A | Texas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Johjima | Kendall | Napoli | Laird |
| 1B | Sexson | Johnson | Morales | Teixeira |
| 2B | Lopez | Ellis | Kendrick | Kinsler |
| SS | Betancourt | Crosby | Cabrera | Young |
| 3B | Beltre | Chavez | McPherson | Blalock |
| LF | Ibanez | Swisher | Rivera | Wilkerson |
| CF | Ichiro! | Kotsay | Matthews | Lofton |
| RF | Guillen | Bradley | Guerrero | Cruz (Cat?) |
| DH | Vidro | Piazza | Anderson (?) | Catalanotto |
| SP | Hernandez | Harden | Lackey | Milwood |
| SP | Washburn | Loaiza | Santana | Padilla |
| SP | Batista | Haren | Weaver | Tejeda |
| SP | Ramirez | Blanton | Escobar | Volquez |
| SP | Baek/Woods | Halsey (?) | Saunders/? | Rheinecker |
| CL | Putz | Street | Rodriguez | Gagne |
| RP | Mateo | Duchsherer | Shields | Otsuka |
| RP | Sherrill | Embree | Oliver | Mahay |
| RP | O’Flaherty | Flores | Speier | Bauer |
| RP | Green | Calero | Carrasco | Benoit |
| RP | Baek/Woods/Wood/Huber | Gaudin | Resop/Bootcheck/? | Rupe/etc |
I feel like I’ve been too close to the team’s bad moves: this division’s going to be competitive, and even a team like the M’s where it’s extremely unlikely they break 85 wins, might find themselves in the hunt.
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that’s what is so frustrating. If they could have added even ONE GOOD SP to the rotation, their chances of winning the division would have increased significantly. But no, this team if anything has gotten worse with the moves they have made so far.
This division looks extremely competitive. I am not waiving a white flag just yet. I think our lineup stacks up pretty well.
Jose Vidro and his sub-400 SLG as a DH still gives me the creeps. What about him says ‘DH’ to Bavasi? There is something seriously wrong with a ‘baseball man’ that looks at Vidro and sees a valuable DH.
The not-being-a-very-good-fielder says ‘DH’ to Bavasi.
There is a certain logic to it: Vidro couldn’t play any position in the field better, so he might as well DH.
Of course that ignores that other people can DH, but no one said logic had to make sense…
Dude, Casey Kotchman is a stone-cold lock for the Angels’ 1B slot.
I always thought of our bullpen as pretty good, but if you look at our entire division, we all have pretty good / elite bullpens, especially if Gagne can be healthy. Of course, give us Lowe and Soriano back, and we’re back to being the best.
I agree with most people, looking at this, I think we definetley can compete, and win if we have a few pleasant surprises.
Some quick observations…
The Mariners really need a better eighth inning reliever than Julio Mateo (ick!). David Riske might not have been a bad investment. This, to me, is something Bavasi needs to address or Putz won’t have that many save opportunities.
We complain about the Mariner rotation, but the Rangers’ doesn’t exactly strike fear into me either. On the other hand, only the M’s can make John Rheinecker a world beater.
At least the Mariners field a competitive every day lineup (assuming Guillen and Vidro can stay healthy). I don’t see any of the others in the division as one that’s obviously better than the others.
Thanks for effort…I was too depressed to even think about doing this…it does help.
However, if Colon does come back as expected, LAoA is much more intimidating.
Considering Lowe is out, the decision to trade Soriano looks even worse.
The M’s do have high potential for above average production at 5 positions (CF, 3B, SS, 1B, C), reasonable potential at two more (LF, SS), and potential replacement level production at DH.
If Washburn has a fluke year, (good) Paul Abbot reincarnates in one or two middle rotation spots, and someone emerges in the bullpen, we could very possibly win the division.
on Kotchman: that may be the team’s direction, but I can’t imagine that it’s as sure as that. I’ve followed Kotchman for years, and while we can talk about whether it’s the injuries or not, just just hasn’t hit like a top offensive prospect in a long time. Have the Angels made any statements that the job’s his to lose? Because while I haven’t seen any forecasts, I would bet PECOTA etc are a lot more optimistic about Morales than Kotchman.
On the division competition: yeah, all four teams have some huge question marks and I wouldn’t want to make a bet on any of them (well, the A’s, because they’re magical).
On the 8th inning problem: I don’t see that as being a huge problem. The M’s have a couple guys I can see stepping into a setup role who’d be better than Mateo (O’Flaherty especially). Besides, the whole bullpen role discussion’s overblown anyway.
there we go…i’ve made a few commments in the last few days about some optimism, and after looking at the chart, feel even better…offense and bullpen match with the rest…just have to have solid years from the starters…wild card is a no-go, but if we can stay in the hunt in the west, the playoffs are a possibility…keep it positive…
Oakland is going to have a tough time scoring runs but their starting pitching will carry them to the AL West title again.
The M’s decision to not go after any quality starting pitching, while at the same time, not improving their offense, dooms them to last place again. The only hope the M’s have is if Felix recreates the Randy Cy Young seasons of old and the team manages to not suck too badly and play close to .450 ball on the days Felix isn’t starting. That would get them to 88 or so wins.
Yeah, seeing this gives me some hope, but when you’re depending on your opponents mediocrity rather than your own goodness you can’t feel too good. Still, this might be what Bavasi was thinking all along, “this division is so mediocre I just need to make a small upgrade and I can save my job”. Of course, he payed through the nose for that small upgrade, and frankly this still isn’t the most talented team in the division, but if his only goal was to save his ass, I can see why he did what he did.
Not to be too pessimistic, but we all need to remember that this division has always been pretty close, but the Ms have placed dead last 3 years in a row now. (and no, we weren’t even that close to winning the division any of those 3 times) I really doubt that the offense will be any better this year. Ichiro is a great player but unfortunatelly he cannot score runs by himself, and the middle of the line-up looks VERY shacky to me. Relying on Beltre / Sexson / Ibanez is no good, I think it is hard to expect Ibanez to repeat his performance. The bottom of the line-up isn’t actually too bad with Lopez / Johjima, but again, they aren’t going to score us tons of runs either. Maybe Guillen will decide to explode in which case this offense could be pretty good, but again that is being too optimistic.
Our starting line-up is just ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE, you cannot expect that line-up to hold up for the entire season. Thats EVEN if Felix performs up to his potential. Hell, replace Felix with Johan Santana winning every game at home and we still wouldn’t make the playoffs. I guess our bullpen is decent but it has gotten worse than last year for sure. And of course, the person managing this team isn’t too bright either.
Going off-course, where do you think Johjima should hit? He hit 7th most of the time (87 games), followed by 6th (19), 3rd (14), and 8th (12). I donno, maybe I am just biased but shouldn’t he be hitting 3rd or 5th? Or does he lack the power to do it?
If they could have added even ONE GOOD SP to the rotation
The M’s decision to not go after any quality starting pitching
just who are we talking about here?
Best in Division, by position:
C – This is tough. Mike Napoli’s skillset seems to imply a power hitting catcher with the patience to take walks, but he’s a horrible contact hitter. He basically Richie Sexson’d his last stint at AAA and tho I like his walks, I’m not convinced he’s a stud just yet. He’s the youngest of the four, so he has the most upside, but ‘right now’ I’m not sure I’d rank him above Jojima. Gerald Laird is, I think, overrated, and is entering his prime years. If he doesn’t somehow improve this season this is probably the best he’s going to be. Kendall sucks. We know Kenji.
Napoli – Jojima – Kendall – Laird
1B – Dan Johnson has kind of laid an egg since coming up here hasn’t he? Mark Teixeira seems to have had a bit of a power dropoff, so we’ll see if that isn’t just random noise. Kendry Morales is a pretty darn good prospect, but is he ready? We know Sexson.
Teixeira – Sexson – Morales – Johnson
(And I only do this until / if Johnson figures it out or Morales blows us all away in his first full season. If it IS Casey Kotchman taking first, put him above Sexson.)
2B – Another toughie. I don’t really like Mark Ellis. He’s your typical Oakland – Beane guy, but seems to have injury issues. Hence his 2005 was better then his 2006. Kinsler and Ellis are very much the same. Kendrick is the superior prospect, now he just has to prove it. Jose Lopez we know, but then again we dont. Jose needs to stop listening to the people who’re telling him to be a singles hitter and get back to what he does best.
Kendrick – Lopez – Kinsler – Ellis
SS – Michael Young has been discussed here. I am not an Orlando Cabrera fan. So that leaves Crosby and Betancourt. I might be retarded, but Bobby Crosby doesn’t seem like he’s the typical Athletic’s type, but we’ll see if he can manage to throw together a complete season. This is still a pivotal defensive position, but those who can pick it AND swing a bat are more valuable then those who can’t.
Offensively: Young – Cabrera – Crosby – Betancourt
Defensively: Betancourt – Crosby – Cabrera – Young
3B – Dallas McPherson… when not injured, he’s not walking, striking out a ton, and hitting for some power. He’s basically not turning out to be what the Angels thought. Eric Chavez has taken a couple of huge steps backwards recently. Hank Blalock has been discussed here before in conjunction with Michael Young. And we know Adrian; Good, Bad, and Angry.
Beltre (no I’m not kidding) – Blalock – McPherson – Chavez (Yeah, I said it, you suck right now.)
LF – A grab bag of varying degrees of sucktitude. Swisher needs to stop swinging for the fences all the damn time. Juan Rivera is servicable as a left field bat. Brad Wilkerson has talent, but no brains. And Raul keeps defying everything we say about his bat, but still sucks defensively.
Swisher – Rivera – Ibanez – Wilkerson (only if Wilkerson continues to keep his head up his ass.)
CF – Matthews has been talked about to death. Lofton is a fill in player at this point. Mark Kotsay is nothing special. And then we have Ichiro!
Ichiro! – Matthews – Kotsay – Lofton
RF – Nobody else in the AL West is Vladamir Guerrero, so let’s put that aside. And, well, at least Milton and Jose don’t have to discuss who plays right anymore. The Rangers have servicable fill ins at their outfield corners, and whether it’s Cat or Cruz doesn’t really make a huge difference. Looking at Milton Bradley’s numbers, btw, he has NEVER done anything special. He’s no better or worse then Guillen offensively. After you pick Vlad the Impaler, the rest of the divisions RFers are a pick’em bunch.
Guess – Guillen – Bradley – Cat/Cruz
DH – The major disappointing coincidence of this position is that there is an award named after one of the greatest hitters of all time, and a former Seattle Mariner. Yet the Mariners can’t seem to figure out how to put someone in this position who will do well enough to come close to winning that same award. Not that a lot of people are going to surpass David Ortiz or anything, but since Edgar retired the M’s haven’t even TRIED to put a decent bat at that position. They’ve used it for the defensive liability or injury question marks of the world (Ibanez, Everett, Vidro) while snubbing some of their own talent who could at least hold down that position as well as their other choices. I think you can see where I’m going with this regarding the Ms rank here, because there really isn’t any arguement about it.
For the rest, Piazza isn’t going to recover much. I know we said that about Frank Thomas too, but Oakland doesn’t automatically restore everybody to former glory. Garret Anderson sucks, but he and whomever fill in Texas’s DH will still be better then Vidro.
Piazza – Texas’ DH – Garret Anderson – Vidro.
“Ace” SP – Lackey is good. Millwood is good. Rich Harden is awesome, but incredibly injury prone. And Felix has more talent then all of them, but we know his issues. So how do we do this? The “safe bet” of Lackey? The consistency of Millwood? Or raw talent? Tough.
The King (No it wasn’t) – Harden – Lackey – Millwood.
#2 SP – Odd the placements of the names, but I suppose it makes some sense. In my opinion either Escobar or Weaver is Anaheim’s 2 guy, but meh. Varying degrees of “gah” in this crowd. Not a Santana guy. He’s mediocre until he proves otherwise.
Padilla (Jesus, I can’t believe I just typed that) – Santana – Loaiza – Washburn
#3 SP – Despite what Halo’s Heaven might say, Weaver isn’t better then Dan Haren. That aside, the bottom two are way below the top two.
Haren – Weaver – Batista – Tejada
#4 SP – I know nobody else will, but I’m cutting HoRam some slack to see what he can do. Still, this is an odd assortment of number fours. Escobar’s better then the others by far, and probably could be someone else’s #2 or #3 with how he’s pitched recently. Blanton is an innings eater, no matter how much he destroys the Mariners (and other guys in blue uniforms). Volquez hasn’t done much since coming up here, so he’s kinda the default bottom ringer.
Escobar – Blanton – HoRam – Volquez
#5 SP – Too much speculation here, and, in the end, does it matter? Unless your staff is so good that your 5th man could be someone else’s 3rd man, then having the best “5th” man in the division is like having the least beat up bike on the block. It works, it gets you there, and it can be replaced if necessary easily enough if it doesn’t. So who cares what it is?
Closer – Gagne is automatically at the bottom due to his injury issues. Street is second to last because he’s been exposed and injured and (frankly) rushed to the majors. So that leaves a battle between KK Putz and K-Rod. Two K’s for our guy, so he wins.
Putz – Rodriguez – Street – Gagne.
Bullpens, even lumped together, are a pissing contest. Unless yours really sucks, and it has to be obvious, then it’s like arguing over the 5th starter. Oakland’s is solid. Anaheim’s is fine despite losing some guys (and adding one very expesnive Justin Speier). Texas’ has some good and bad. And the Mariners always manage to cobble something together that works well enough.
That’s how I see things.
LOL at Anaheim penciling in Napoli and MacPherson. Wow, they’re much weaker than even I thought (and I didn’t think much of their lineup to begin with). That rotation will need to be lights out, and even then they’ll likely look like the late 90’s Dodgers, with good pitching and no punch.
Also, LOL to Tejas giving Tejeda, Volquez and Rheinecker rotation spots. These guys are maybe a shred above replacement level at best.
The team that appears to have the fewest growing holes is Oakland, and they lose Big Hurt and Zito and gain… Piazza and 32 starts from Brad Halsey? Ahem.
Man, even with this disaster offseason, the M’s may have a serious shot at contention in the West. Never underestimate the glaring weaknesses of your opponents.
I’m also neglecting bench players, etc, and the rotations/bullpens are shots in the dark.
I can understand why you would neglect the benches at this date, since they fluctuate quite a bit between now and April 1st, but the benches and minor league backup plans are rather important, no? I’d guess off the top of my head that roughly 15-20% of each team’s at-bats will go to guys who aren’t on those lists. (This seems to fit with last year’s M’s, anyway–Reed didn’t get many ABs and Crazy Carl lasted about half the season. I’d argue that’s a pretty good year healthwise, too, especially when you’re begging for an injury by riding your catcher so hard.) When it’s close, and it looks like it could be close, depth can easily make or break a division race.
Napoli over Johjima? I… I would have ordered them differently, let’s just start with that.
Napoli over Johjima? I… I would have ordered them differently, let’s just start with that.
I said it was tough, and I do love Kenji-kun. But I see Jojima much like he did last year, a .290 / .330 / .450 guy. This is highly valuable for a catcher, but Napoli is capable of about a .230 / .330 / .500 type. Basically, a lot more walking and a lot more power then our guy Ken, he is just going to either crush the ball or strikeout when he does swing.
I also didn’t weigh in any defense here, because I don’t know squat about the other guys defensively.
[out of control format]
dammit i fucked up the link again. that’s why i don’t make webpages.
That’s it HHR, I’m starting a petition to have your linking privaledges revoked.
BTW, 2/4 for our 3B? Whom do you put above Adrian?
I have to agree with the above analysis, Ichiro and Johjima are the only clear winners, but they aren’t like Pujols or Ortiz who can make a difference on their own.
yup… the key will be Washburn / Guillen / Beltre / Sexson.
There’s only one problem. Baseball is played on the field. Until someone inserts a heartbeat into about 80% of our players, nothing will change.
“There are two kinds of rat. The hungry and the fat.”
(rolling eyes)
#24, or Felix. Strong seasons out of him and Beltre would do wonders toward making our team competitive.
So in short, the Mariners aren’t very good but they aren’t so bad either. And there’s not a great team in the division. Has anyone in the division done much this off-season — Oakland downgraded from Thomas and Zito to Piazza and Halsey, Anaheim threw a bunch of money at Matthews Jr (which doesn’t make him good) and Texas gambled on Gagne.
What’s frustrating, at least to me, is that it feels like the Mariners had a bunch of money to spend, spent it ($17M on Vidro, Batista, Ramirez for 2007), and didn’t improve the team at all. I probably underestimate the impact of Batista but Snelling, Fruto, (Broussard) and Soriano for Vidro and Ramirez is at best a small gain. I don’t really like the Jason Schmidt contract, and don’t know if he would have signed the deal with the M’s, but I’d much rather have spent the money on him.
Baseball is played on the field. Until someone inserts a heartbeat into about 80% of our players, nothing will change.
This is a lie. Baseball is played with Strat-o-Matic cards, dice, and computers.
“I think I’ve been too close to the teams bad moves…” That’s the thing isn’t it really. There was not a great deal Bavasi could do to materially improve the team this year but what about ‘08 or ‘09? Change the date to 2008 and half the line up we have is unchanged but older and probably worse. Geez, change it to August and ask how many will still be there given histories? Now pencil Soriano as a starter or set up guy and Snelling in RF, Ibanez at DH for 08, etc. I know yoiu don’t like Bavasi’s performance but seem to actually like the guy but honestly, I think he did mortgage our future and badly at that. Oakland will not be as good because they lived off us last year, so we have a shot if Angels or Texas don’t take off. 2008 with Angels Minor Leagues kicking in, I think we are in trouble.
Ranger fan here…a couple of quick thoughts on the back of the rotation and pen…
Volquez and Rheinecker have almost no shot at the rotation. If the Rangers don’t add Zito, Lieber, Garland, or some other vet as the #3 starter, then you are probably looking at Josh Rupe and Kam Loe as the #4 and #5 starters.
In the bullpen, C.J. Wilson is going to be the #1 lefty setup guy, with Mahay more of a middle reliever. From the right side, Wes Littleton is ahead of Benoit and Bauer in the pecking order, as is Rupe and/or Loe (if they aren’t in the rotation). Frankie Francisco and possibly Nick Masset are also ahead of Benoit and Bauer on the depth chart right now.
For the Ranger bullpen, the 5 guys behind Gagne right now would probably be Otsuka, Littleton, Francisco, Wilson, and Mahay, with Benoit or Bauer probably sticking as a long reliever, although I personally think Otsuka will be dealt before opening day.
#25, 29– gee, I thought baseball was played with what Manzanillos Cup would be all too familiar with…
16 – I’d move Kinsler ahead of Lopez. IMO, Lopez’s potential gets overrated here quite a bit.
Also…
Kinsler and Ellis are not very much the same.
I had this argument with Jeff Sullivan the other day, but I think Ian Kinsler is the second best second baseman in the A.L. right now.
Kinsler knows how to take a walk better than Lopez. But given the difference in the two home parks, and that Lopez is two years younger I’d still rather have Lopez over Kinsler.
Now if we can just get Lopez a set of ear-plugs so he’ll stop listening to Hargrove and hit like he’s capable.
You know that the FO thinks we are only a Zito away from serious contention. Its a gamble, but this division is winable. The cost, of course, is the future. Hey, its not like the M’s are that afraid of overpaying…
Not to nitpick…but Lopez is 17 months younger than Kinsler.
Of course if you insert Zito into that rotation the Mariners quickly move from maybe the worst team to the best. The rotation would simply outclass the rest of the division.
Can’t imagine it happening. But it would make an amazing difference in terms of ability to win this weak division.
A team that is truly .500 has a 16% chance of winning at least 87 games, just by timing.
Given the great fortune that Seattle plays in a 4-team division, where just being competitive enough will let you catch a few breaks, all Mariner fans should be hopeful on Opening Day. Seattle should have at least a 10% chance of making the playoffs, if the GM would stop making the kind of moves he’s making.
Kinsler’s numbers were greatly aided by his home park last season. His road numbers were very pedestrian.
I had this argument with Jeff Sullivan the other day, but I think Ian Kinsler is the second best second baseman in the A.L. right now.
You should listen to Jeff – there’s no way this is true. He’s clearly behind Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, and Tadahito Iguchi with no real room for argument. Kinsler is squarely in the second tier of guys, hanging out with Kendrick, Lopez, Ellis, Castillo, Polanco, and Grudzielanek. I’d probably put him fourth or fifth in that group in current value, honestly.
Kinsler’s probably something like the 8th or 9th best second baseman in the AL right now.
Yeah, these teams look relatively competitve, and I agree that while the offseason moves were stupid (or if you prefer—incompetent), they probably don’t have any big impact on next year’s race. I know the statistical community doesn’t think a manager has a lot of impact, but I think the missing ingredient here is the drag that comes with having Grover as manager. Have we all forgotten the August swoon? Even if the teams are equal on paper, I just don’t see the M’s performing at the level they’re capable of under Grover. It’s not so much the moves that were made, it’s the moves that weren’t……..
This confirms what I think most of us basically intuitively understood: the Ms didn’t improve themselves during the offseason, nor did they get dramatically worse. Rather, they continued to trade a away pieces of what could be a bright future for established mediocrity. If we could just undo everything that Bavasi has done in the past 2 years, the Ms would be 10 years younger, $15M cheaper, and way more interesting… but they’d still be a .500 team (although with the youth, I think you could say the upside would be higher).
Over at ESPN, Keith Law wrote an interesting piece on Tampa’s glut of OF talent. It’s subscription only, but I couldn’t resist posting a small nugget.
Despite giving Jonny Gomes an overall positive review and prediction, his final conclusion is this:
“Trade value: Low, due to the surgery.
Future: Not a long-term Devil Ray, as designated hitters are rather expendable, and can always be given to Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi for his two best prospects.”
…..ouch.
One of the most annoying aspects of this off-season was that they squandered the huge benefit they got from Ichiro’s move to CF last season. That opened all sorts of flexibility in dealing with the RF/LF/1B/DH spots. Instead we keep Ibanez in LF, pay $12M for a below-average aging DH, and hope that Guillen is healthy enough to play the field.
This brings up another question – who’s on the depth chart behind Guillen? At the time of the signing, the attitude seemed to be that he’d probably be healthy enough to DH but his elbow might not be ready for the field. Now we’re banking on him being an everyday right fielder. The deal seemed like a good risk/reward proposition – but that’s because it there was risk involved. If Guillen can’t take the field, does that mean Reed is our everyday RF?
#17, I think it’s funny you would dismiss McPherson so easily. He was hurt and still trying to learn the league last year and managed a 776 OPS last year. Seems to me that isn’t too far off our guy’s .793. If that guy is healthy he might put up some really good power numbers. He K’s a lot and hasn’t been able to stay healthy but he’s still managed a .755 OPS over a very limited career.
My guess is Angels fans look at our rotation and double over laughing.
Has anyone else taken to making themselves feel better by sharing with friends and family the various rippings that Bavasi is taking in the national media? It’s fun, and somewhat cathartic. Someone ought to collect them all.
Dave…
I think there’s a clump of guys after Cano who are all in the same general spectrum.
However, the only A.L. second baseman with a higher EQA than Kinsler in 2006 was Brian Roberts, and that was just barely. And Kinsler’s offensive performance last year, at age 23, was in line with what he’d done in the minors.
From the numbers I’ve seen on him, Kinsler was average to a little below average defensively. Having watched him in 2006, I think a lot of his problems defensively stem from a lack of familiarity with the position…he’d been a shortstop until the 2005 season.
Jeff’s issue with Kinsler was two-fold…that TBIA disproportionately helped Kinsler, more so than is taken into account by normal park effecting, and that other guy’s defensive superiority puts them ahead of Kinsler.
On the first part, I don’t know that Kinsler’s one season of home/road splits is enough to say that he’s a TBIA fluke…particularly because TBIA most generously benefits lefthanders, and Kinsler is not only righthanded, but a dead-pull hitter (in marked contrast with Michael Young, to whom he is often compared, since Young’s power is much more towards the right-center gap).
On the second, I don’t think Kinsler is a gold glover, but I have a hard time seeing someone like Hill or Ellis having a 15 run advantage defensively over him, which is what I think it takes to put either of them, for example, ahead of Kinsler.
I’m not sure Kinsler is good for second best second baseman in the AL, but I’m inclined to defend him here. I got to see quite a few games down in Texas last year, and he really grew on me. Though he is older than Lopez, he’s a much better athlete. Even if you give Lopez a slight edge in power (which I’m not convinced he has), Kinsler has shown the ability to be a high average/OBP guy. Like Lopez, he was brought up too early, but he still hit pretty well for the Rangers, considering he hadn’t mastered AAA pitching yet. And FWIW, his road splits are still better than Lopez’s home splits. (I think Lopez hit like five balls past 200 ft after the all-star break last year.)
I think there’s a clump of guys after Cano who are all in the same general spectrum.
I think you’re underselling Aaron Hill and Tadahito Iguchi. Both are solid hitters with good gloves, and in Hill’s case, he’s probably one of the three or four best defensive second baseman alive.
However, the only A.L. second baseman with a higher EQA than Kinsler in 2006 was Brian Roberts, and that was just barely. And Kinsler’s offensive performance last year, at age 23, was in line with what he’d done in the minors.
EqA has some issues that make it less than ideal for a comparison like this. Kinsler had significantly less playing time than the other full time second baseman last year, which means his performance necessarily has to be discounted somewhat.
From the numbers I’ve seen on him, Kinsler was average to a little below average defensively. Having watched him in 2006, I think a lot of his problems defensively stem from a lack of familiarity with the position…he’d been a shortstop until the 2005 season.
Kinsler’s stiff – he doesn’t move particularly well, and his footwork needs some help. He’s never going to be a better than average defender, and at an up-the-middle position, defense can make a huge difference.
On the first part, I don’t know that Kinsler’s one season of home/road splits is enough to say that he’s a TBIA fluke…particularly because TBIA most generously benefits lefthanders, and Kinsler is not only righthanded, but a dead-pull hitter (in marked contrast with Michael Young, to whom he is often compared, since Young’s power is much more towards the right-center gap).
If you’re going to put enough stock in 473 plate appearances to call him the second best 2B in the AL, you have to concede the park effects that showed up in that performance. You can’t point to the offensive line, and then dismiss the splits. One year of splits can be very misleading, and I’m sure Kinsler’s true talent level is better than his road numbers, but you’re already basing your conclusion on a small sample size, and you can’t ignore the fact that his quality performance was lumped into an even smaller segment of that small sample size.
On the second, I don’t think Kinsler is a gold glover, but I have a hard time seeing someone like Hill or Ellis having a 15 run advantage defensively over him, which is what I think it takes to put either of them, for example, ahead of Kinsler.
I’d be surprised if the difference between Hill and Kinsler was only 15 runs. I’d say its closer to 20, maybe 25. Hill’s an elite defender – Kinsler is below average. Generally, elite defenders are worth about 15-20 runs above average (except Adam Everett, who might be +30), and below average defenders are -5 or so. I’d put Hill in the +15 to +20 range, and Kinsler in the -5 range.
The 20 to 25 runs of defensive difference swallows the already small difference in offensive value between the two.
Hill >>> Kinsler. I don’t even think its particularly close.
Just a few quick comments/responses, Dave…
I agree that 473 major league appearances brings up sample size issues in terms of performance. However, part of the justification for my position on Kinsler was also his minor league performance, which, given his age and level, was consistent with the way he hit in the majors in 2006…his minor league performance suggests, to me, that his 2006 performance in the majors is a fairly accurate reflection of his abilities.
Defensively, I think you are right about him being stiff, and that probably would have led to him being moved off of shortstop anyway. I think the footwork issues are something that will improve as he plays more second base, particularly on the pivot and on quick throws, where he seemed to have some issues in 2006.
I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.
#49: As far as comparing Kinsler’s road splits to Lopez’s Home splits.
Lopez plays in a park that is extreme against right handed hitters. Kinsler’s road stats “should” essentially give you a park neutral result. So like you say, FWIW, I’d say its not a very worthwhile comparison.
If you wanted to compare something more closer to park neutral results (given the small sample sizes we are dealing with) you’d compare Kinsler’s road stats with Lopez’s road stats, where Lopez clearly has the advantage. However I will caviot that Lopez does get a bit of a benefit from having his road stats include games in TBIA while Kinsler’s includes games at Safeco. That said, each players results in the opposing teams home stadiums were pretty bad last year, negatiting the overall impact.
I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.
Sure, me too. But I’m on record as saying Michael Young is probably the most overrated player in the game, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?
Cano>Iguchi>Hill>Kendrick>Roberts>Lopez/Kinsler.
That’s the way I see it.
From Kinsler’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Oklahoma City (595 PA):
.245/.309/.400 EqA .248
And from Lopez’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Tacoma:
.288/.315/.448 EqA .254
Advantage, Lopez
52 – I totally agree with all of that. I guess what I was trying to say was that even though Kinsler sucked half the time, so did Lopez.
I haven’t studied park factors and their application to individual players, but the Lopez’s home split last year seems misleading, in terms of how people expect Safeco to hamper righties. In 2006 he was quite the groundball/infield fly hitter, and that wasn’t Safeco’s fault (was it?). Like Lonestar implied earlier, I don’t think you can just apply park factors to stats without taking into account a hitter’s tendencies and style.
This goes back to why after this year I dropped my lofty expectations for Lopez. I wanted to see a hint that those minors doubles numbers meant something, but his groundball tendencies (Hargrove induced?) and short home runs really made me question if dealing with his low OBP and below average defense is worth it.
Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?
I heart Howie Kendrick. He’s the best second baseman in baseball in a couple of years.
Actually, I’m pretty sure that Lopez’s second half grounder binge was coaching’s fault.
58 – Advantage Lopez, in 2005. You can prove almost anything with selective sampling.
Without wanting to say anything overall about Kinsler and Lopez, I will say that a six-point difference in translated EQA for one season is hardly worth saying either player was better than the other. It’s a statistical dead heat.
oh my effing god
go over to espn.com and check out the ‘what’s ahead for zito and mariners’ video clip. Bavasi gets REAMED about Vidro.
well, it is Keith Law again.
Ichiro, Felix, or Putz goes down for anything over two weeks and the M’s are flat out screwed.
Anyone hear about the Lions fans organized protest? I doubt it will do anything, but if it does, maybe we could do the same. Basically, they plan to get up with 8:57 left in the 2nd quarter, go to the main atrium and chant.
how will that be different from any other Lions game?
DMZ, I share similar tidings over on my blog. the one thing I wanted to find more than anything under my tree this off-season was a front-line starter. sadly, it was not to be. alas….
Here’s the projected A’s roster, barring trades, signings, ect…
C1 Kendall
1B Johnson
2B Ellis
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
LF Swisher
CF Kotsay
RF Bradley
DH Piazza
C2 Melhuse
IF Scutaro
OF Kielty
3B Perez
OF Goleski (DL/R5)
SP Harden
SP Haren
SP Loaiza
SP Blanton
SP Kennedy
CL Street
RP Duchscherer
RP Calero
RP Embree
RP Gaudin
RP Saarloos
RP Marshall (R5) / Flores
Good Beane move today:
Invite Durazo to Spring Training.
Why not? Guy is tearing up the Mexican league.
Low risk, high reward…
64 – makes me want to cry
Iguchi is a VERY solid 2B, not many guys can provide that kind of consistency offensively and defensively. He is my idea of the ideal #2 spot guy, he knows his job.
And yeah, he did that amazing wacky throw to first base :O
71. Durazo is a high reward guy? Since when? More like he’s a low-risk signing for a chance of helping the big league club if Piazza goes down.
73. In his last full season (2004) Durazo put up a .321/.396/.523 line (EqA .303). He had TJ surgery in July 2005. If he’s going to recover (not a given, certainly, but a possibility), it’ll be this season, and he’ll only be 33. If he gets back to what he did 3 years ago, I’d call that a pretty high reward.
on Kotchman: that may be the team’s direction, but I can’t imagine that it’s as sure as that. I’ve followed Kotchman for years, and while we can talk about whether it’s the injuries or not, just just hasn’t hit like a top offensive prospect in a long time. Have the Angels made any statements that the job’s his to lose? Because while I haven’t seen any forecasts, I would bet PECOTA etc are a lot more optimistic about Morales than Kotchman.
He hasn’t hit like that because he hasn’t been healthy to do it. Mono isn’t a debilitating disease, and Kotch has always had good OBP’s, something other Angels hitters haven’t had. His downside looks like Mark Grace.