Zito, quickly
I’m not going to do a big write-up on why signing Barry Zito is a bad idea because I don’t believe the Mariners are actually going to sign Barry Zito. The leaks about the M’s interest in Zito are coming from the Scott Boras camp, a source from whom public statements can only be described as questionable at best. The Mariners, as a general rule, won’t give six or seven year contracts to pitchers, and they don’t have the money in the budget for Zito. Yes, they could increase the budget, go against organizational philosophy, and outbid the Mets while hoping that Zito takes a few million more to pitch for a last place team rather than joining one of the main contenders in the National League, but let’s just call it a pretty big stretch.
Anyways, for those curious as to why I’d be against a Zito signing even if I thought it would happen, here’s the short explanation.
Barry Zito, the last three years, has given up about 10 to 15 runs less than an average starting pitcher over the course of 200 innings. He’s been something like a three win player compared to what the Mariners could cobble together as their fifth starter with some combination of Cha Baek, Jake Woods, Sean White, Justin Lehr, Ryan Feierabend, and assorted Triple-A fodder.
If there was a 100% chance that Zito would repeat his average performance over the last three years, with no decline in performance and no chance for injury, he still wouldn’t be worth $16 or $17 million per season. He’s just not an elite pitcher. He hasn’t been for several years.
Toss in the significant chance of decline and injury over the course of a long term deal, and giving Zito anything close to a 6 year, $100 million deal shouldn’t even be on the Mariners radar. Give superstar contracts to superstar players. Barry Zito isn’t one now, wasn’t one last year, and won’t be next year.
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Toss in the significant chance of decline and injury over the course of a long term deal, and giving Zito anything close to a 6 year, $100 million deal shouldn’t even be on the Mariners radar. Give superstar contracts to superstar players. Barry Zito isn’t one now, wasn’t one last year, and won’t be next year.
Which is exactly why Bavasi will sign him.
I was interested to see the Post had a column about why he might not be a good idea ….
There needs to come a time (very soon)that this ownership and FO needs to sign a starting pitcher that improves this club for 07. If not Zito then who? We all know that the Mariners will have to pay more for a starter than just about any other club just to get them to Seattle. The market is wild and every club is paying dearly for pitching. I know it is intelligent to not overpay. How else are the Mariner’s going to improve this club in this current market and still compete in the AL West with their usual constraints on giving a big contract? Is it time to improve this club or not?
How many pitchers are really worth that kind of a contract? It’s not the individual year money that bothers me, just the combination of the money and the duration.
Did Zito, Mulder, and Hudson start their declines roughly when Rick Peterson left the A’s? I wonder if Zito is considering a “career revival” back with his old pitching coach with the Mets. Seems like the obvious choice and Boras is just using the old reliable M’s to increase the Mets offer.
There needs to come a time (very soon)that this ownership and FO needs to sign a starting pitcher that improves this club for 07.
This is the biggest myth in baseball. What big name free agent pitchers have the Twins, A’s or Cardinals signed recently? The Tigers big addition to their staff was Kenny Rogers.
Free agency is absolutely the worst way to build a pitching staff, bar none.
I’m curious, really, how well curveball pitchers last in baseball. It seems to me that the arm would likely suffer more damage throwing the curveball consistently than ramping it up a notch for the fastball. While Zito’s Bender is one of the best in the league, I’m suddenly trying to think of other curveball pitchers who have long and successful careers.
I remember Erik Hansen’s curveball, and how freakin’-a awesome it was. He certainly didn’t last very long. Zito’s been durable so far, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to keep dodging the health bullet.
Nevermind that his Emporer’s clothing will definitely be on display when he’s pitching most of his games outside of the friendly confines of Oakland.
But then again, looking at his career home-road splits, it doesn’t appear that Oakland has given him much of an advantage.
it’s pretty much a dead debate, because it won’t happen…but for argument’s sake, i agree with Dave…free agency is not the way to go…gotta develop the talent with the kids…free agent pitchers are for your number five, maybe four starters (see batista)…your top three have to come from within (the king), or at a very good trade…
#4: Nobody is worth that kind of contract,however, the ownership needs to ask this question of themselves, “With this market as it is, how are we going to improve our club and compete in the AL West in 07? If the answer is, “We will not delve into this crazy market”, then trade all the big contracts and start rebuilding from scratch for the 08 season now and take your last place finish for 07. They need to quit spending 5-7M each on players that will not improve this team. When you add 5-7M for the three players they have signed this off-season they could have signed a single player that would have actually improved this club.
Does the backlash the M’s FO is feeling for their off-season deals make them more likely to break with their organizational philosophy to sign Zito? I would think that the FO would see a Zito signing as not just an improvement in the rotation, but a way to sell the club to the fans, because nothing else they have done this winter has gone over well. Even though I agree with Dave’s assesment about Zito and his desire not to see him signed to a large contract, most fans would be extremely pleased and excited about seeing Zito in an M’s uniform.
Zito’s unique skill, so to speak, is the theoretical ability to induce infield fly balls. Seriously. If you look at his line, that’s the only thing he does particularly well. The league average IF/Fly rate is 10%, but the last three years, Zito has posted marks of 13.3%, 19.3%, and 16.4%. He ranked 5th in the AL in IF/Fly this year, 2nd last year, and fourth two years ago.
The rest of his line – walks, strikeouts, home runs, line drives, and stranding runners – are all mediocre (with the exception of his ‘06 LOB%, which was very high, but is a Washburn in ‘05 style fluke). His success has been built on inducing a lot of infield flies, which are basically guaranteed outs, allowing him to post a significantly higher rate of outs on balls in play than the average pitcher.
Foul territory can have some effect on IF/Fly rate, but overall, there isn’t a strong park factor for infield flies, so he hasn’t benefited as much from his home park as a normal flyball pitcher, in that regard. He wouldn’t benefit as much from Safeco as a guy like Washburn, for instance.
But, all that said, paying a guy with the hope that he continues to induce an above average rate of popups is a great way to lose a lot of money. Of all pitcher skills, it’s one of the least consistent, and if that disappears, he doesn’t have much to fall back on.
This is the biggest myth in baseball. What big name free agent pitchers have the Twins, A’s or Cardinals signed recently? The Tigers big addition to their staff was Kenny Rogers.
The problem is that the A’s and Twins can actually grow their own, and the Cardinals have the LaRussa/Duncan Pitcher Salvage Facilities (I’m pretty dubious that MOST pitching coaches have an effect, but when you have a run that goes from Dave Stewart through Chris Carpenter, I’m sold). Whereas the Mariner record is far more dubious- the last really good pitcher this organization produced (100 career victories) was Mark Langston (Garcia and Johnson don’t count as they were very close to finished products from their organizations by the time they got here).
#7: Bert Blyleven comes to mind as a curveball pitcher who had a quite long and distinguished career.
#9 I agree that building your own talent is the way to go. The Mariners are not doing that. They are trying to rebuild with 5-7M contracts with veterans that are past their primes or are young and don’t improve the club. That is why they need to trade off their big contracts and rebuild from within now.The question becomes again if we want to improve this club and compete in the AL West in 07, in this current market, who can we sign that is out there that will improve us?
and the Bergen Recordtalks money:
Players hae made teams bid against themselves before. The Tigers seem to do that a lot.
is there not a bit of context that gets lost in all the analysis about what Zito is actually worth?
The fans are pissed – and with the exception of nerds like us that scour stats and could piece together a better rotation while taking a break on the toilet than Bozo-vasi could in three years as general manager with a giant staff of minions – signing Barry Zito will quell the current fire of angst about a disaster of an offseason and put some assess in seats.
Bavasi knows this is his last year if the M’s don’t win. So why not overpay for the best available pitcher? If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, it’s someone else’s problem. I’m not saying it’s right, it’s just true.
Bavasi knows Hargrove is on the hot seat. See above narrative.
With the Angels and Rangers interested, isn’t signing Zito more than signing a #2 pitcher (#3?) – it’s actually stealing one away from a division rival?
Can’t wait to be ripped apart for this post…
They are trying to rebuild with 5-7M contracts with veterans that are past their primes or are young and don’t improve the club.
As we’ve noted the past two weeks, we disagree with that strategy too.
But here’s the thing – if this offseason really is the disaster we all think it’s been, then the Bavasi regime is about to embark on its farewell tour, and we’ll get a whole new front office next year. That new front office will have a much easier job of retooling the roster if they’re not stuck with a albatross contract for Barry Zito.
Oh, and as an addendum, that’s not an argument for signing Zito- but a reflection of the problem the Mariners find themselves in.
I’m with you all the way on this one, Dave. Our views are identical (not that you were losing sleep wondering).
For all the heruclean cries of “Where’s our star pitcher?” may I suggest the name Felix Hernandez? Remember him? He’s a year older, and more important, a year maturer. I think he’s just about ready to take off.
#7 PPaul: How about Bert Blyleven? It can be done, but it is rare. Even Aaron Sele has managed to extend his career a fair amount.
Zito’s unique skill, so to speak, is the theoretical ability to induce infield fly balls.
I was looking at some DP rate and GB% numbers during the regular season. There was a pretty good relationship between GB% and DP%, but there were clearly some pitchers who were doing better than you would expect from luck and some who were worse than you would from luck. Zito was one of the pitchers who had a much better DP% than you would expect given his GB%.
Without looking into it more, this could certainly just be another reason to expect that Zito has recently been lucky and stands a good chance at declining. I’ve always been curious about the idea of a good situational pitchers. Back when the league wasn’t nearly as strong, say in the 30s and 40s, you hear about pitchers saving their best stuff for the best hitters in the lineup. Certainly pitchers can hardly do anything to the extent that might have happened back then, but I feel like pitchers can still have different approaches with runners on base and with no one on base.
In this case, it seems like Zito might adjust his approach with runners on base to induce more ground balls. I haven’t seen much (or any, really) research in this area, though, so I wouldn’t go putting money down on it or anything.
I know I’m in the minority here, but I have to say I’m with Stoyboy (#4).
Sure it’s a longshot Zito will come here. But ask yourself this question, what exactly will get you to pay well over $100 to bring your family to a game at Safeco this year? Batista? Ramirez? Baek?
Be serious.
The Mariners have got to make some kind of organizational decision to step up and play with the big boys or bag out and become the Pittsburgh of the Pacific Northwest.
They do not have the minor-league talent nor managerial wherewithal at this point to replicate Oakland or Minnesota and there is no chance that is going to change soon. So I’d take Zito in a second.
By the way, I’ve seen the Cardinals mentioned here a couple times and want to point out that there aren’t more than a couple homegrown guys on that entire roster: Carpenter, Suppan, Mulder, Edmonds, Eckstein, Rolen, Encarnacion, Jeff Weaver … the list of players they got from somewhere else is practically endless.
The idea that in this day and age you can just grow a championship team is a myth.
is there not a bit of context that gets lost in all the analysis about what Zito is actually worth?
Sure – he’s worth more to the Mets and Rangers than he is to the Mariners because he could legitimately make them into playoff teams, which generates a huge amount of revenue for a team. In this instance, context makes a Zito deal make even less sense for the Mariners.
Bavasi knows this is his last year if the M’s don’t win. So why not overpay for the best available pitcher? If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, it’s someone else’s problem. I’m not saying it’s right, it’s just true.
Thankfully, Bavasi has more honor than that. While I’m sure he doesn’t want to lose his job, he’s not going to intentionally screw the team over in the long run. He might do it unintentionally because he really thinks Jose Vidro is a good DH, but he has more respect for his job as trustee of the franchise than to leave it in ruins with a Custer-style deathmarch.
With the Angels and Rangers interested, isn’t signing Zito more than signing a #2 pitcher (#3?) – it’s actually stealing one away from a division rival?
If the Zito deal is going to be 6/100, I’d love to have him sign with Texas. That way, when they’re paying Zito and Millwood $30 million to be average or worse pitchers in a couple of years, we can let them overtake us for last place in the division.
If one of your rivals wants to spend their money badly, you should encourage that, not try to prevent it.
#18- Signing and overpaying for Zito or another FA starter is a foregone conclusion. The ownership/FO want to compete in the AL West for 07(Why they signed the players they did don’t make any sense)but they obviously are looking to compete and not rebuild from within. Who(FA Starter) is out there that will improve this club for 07 that the Mariners can sign?
Family Pack Night Four tickets, four hot dogs and four Pepsi brand soft drinks $50
really, things aren’t as bad as we think…stay with me…felix will be a number one…wash and ramirez are two solid threes…stay with me…batista an average four…and baek has potential to be a solid five and maybe an average four…so if either wash or ramirez regain their old form, our rotation isn’t as bad as all people think it is…and while i am not happy with a lot of the moves, think about it…would you have wanted us to pay some of these other players these terrible contracts (MECHE, mathews, drew, pierre, etc.)…things aren’t as bad as it could be…at least we’re not fans of KC, Pitt, CO, etc….
Dave – my comments weren’t a rationale for signing zito, but I think people get tied up in what zito is “worth” without thinking about peripheral variables.
And yeah, Bavasi likes to leave a positive legacy. Just ask the Angels how they felt about Mo Vaughn.
Felix?
Despite how hopeless it looks now, I don’t see the point of blowing it all up now. We have the young core in place (Felix/Lopez/Putz/Betancourt/soon Jones/maybe Clement), as well as players like Ichiro, Ibañez, Johjima, and even Beltre and Guillen who could be really good pieces. I don’t see how selling off those contracts helps us contend in ‘08. I’d rather spend the rest of the money on locking up Ichiro and just see what happens. Washburn and Batista become potentially tradeable contracts next year, and Sexson could already be really useful to somebody at the deadline maybe. We could even get value back on those, I think. Or I hope anyway.
I just wish there was some way I could believe that if Washburn had an ‘05 style year, or Batista pitched out of his mind for a season, or if Vidro hit really well, we would take the opportunity to sell high on these obviously mediocre players. With Bavasi at least (and maybe with a heavy-handed FO, regardless of the GM), we’ll just get excited that these investments paid off and hope that they repeat those performances.
Sure it’s a longshot Zito will come here. But ask yourself this question, what exactly will get you to pay well over $100 to bring your family to a game at Safeco this year? Batista? Ramirez? Baek?
Be serious.
A winning team.
The Mariners have got to make some kind of organizational decision to step up and play with the big boys or bag out and become the Pittsburgh of the Pacific Northwest.
This is the organizational mantra of the Baltimore Orioles. It doesn’t work.
They do not have the minor-league talent nor managerial wherewithal at this point to replicate Oakland or Minnesota and there is no chance that is going to change soon. So I’d take Zito in a second.
Or, you know, they could replace the decision makers, which is much easier to do and significantly less costly.
By the way, I’ve seen the Cardinals mentioned here a couple times and want to point out that there aren’t more than a couple homegrown guys on that entire roster: Carpenter, Suppan, Mulder, Edmonds, Eckstein, Rolen, Encarnacion, Jeff Weaver … the list of players they got from somewhere else is practically endless.
No one is saying you have to grow your entire roster from within. We’re saying don’t spend star money on non-star players. Look at that list of guys and how they were acquired:
Carpenter – low risk flyer on injured guy for almost no money
Suppan – signed a three year, moderate money deal
Mulder – horrible trade, they’d undo that one in a second
Edmonds – traded Adam Kennedy for him
Eckstein – signed a three year, moderate money deal
Rolen – traded for him when stock was low
Encarnacion – lousy player, bad signing, but only one year deal
Jeff Weaver – signed for league minimum mid-season
The idea that in this day and age you can just grow a championship team is a myth.
No one’s arguing that all 25 players should come from the farm system. You’re missing the point. The Cardinals signings show exactly what we’re talking about – they’ve paid role players like role players, and gotten good rewards by taking risks.
What I find curious about Zito is his decline in strikeouts. In his first years, he was clearly above average (2005 ks in 2001). What might be possible explanations for this trend?
Strikeout rates decline as pitchers age. It’s one of the basic tenets of pitching. It’s not abnormal at all.
#98– at the time, the Angels FO felt they had to make a big splashy move, and so gave Mo 6/$80M (on the same day the Yanks gave Bernie 7/87M, and 2 weeks before LA’s 7/105M deal for Brown).
Oddly enough, at the time there were national writers who named it among the “Best free-agent signings: (1) Mo Vaughn by the Angels. (How long has this team needed a leader to carry it on his back?)”
Encarnacion was a three-year deal. Horrible signing, but he wasn’t paid star money either.
#31- All I want to know is should the Mariners then stand pat for this off-season, and if not ,who should they go after that is on the market that will improve the team for 07?
Encarnacion was a three-year deal. Horrible signing, but he wasn’t paid star money either.
You’re right – I got him and his twin lousy outfielder, Preston Wilson, confused. That’s what I get for doing it from memory.
The point stands, though.
#31- All I want to know is should the Mariners then stand pat for this off-season, and if not ,who should they go after that is on the market that will improve the team for 07?
At this point, we should hope the Mariners don’t make any more transactions for the next calendar year, because it’s clear that this regime can’t be trusted to evaluate major league talent correctly.
#36– the 2008 free agents
The Post article on Zito notes that the Mets have signed our old friend Clint Nageotte to a minor league deal. Looks like they already have a new lefty.
Nageotte’s a righty. And he’s d-u-n as a pitcher.
Dave: Agreed. Can they compete for the AL West Championship with the present team?
Dave: Agreed. Can they compete for the AL West Championship with the present team?
As structured, it’s an 80-85 win team with very little upside. Best case scenario, where Felix pitches like King Felix, Putz is still SuperPutz, and everyone stays healthy, they win 90 games.
I’d give them a 1 in 20 chance to win the division.
Dave,
I agree with your words of wisdom about paying guys appropriately for what they do – role players paid like role players, true stars like stars, has-beens like has-beens, and take advantage of young talent while you have it and especially if it can give you the same or close to same production as the overpaid has-been. I sent an email to that effect to Fanfare. Suprisingly, I got a response. It looks like a stock response, with a few names I mentioned plugged into the merge fields, but it’s something, at least:
Dear [Mariner Fan in CO Exile],
Thank you for your e-mail. We appreciate you taking the time to write to us and share your opinions regarding the Mariners off-season moves. It’s clear that you are very passionate about the Mariners and we recognize and appreciate that. Your comments regarding Rafael Soriano, Emiliano Fruto and Chris Snelling have been forwarded on to the appropriate department for consideration. We know that our fans make a substantial investment of time, money and emotion in the team, and we recognize that we have to keep earning that support each year. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us and for your passion and your commitment. We sincerely hope to have you as a fan of the Seattle Mariners in 2007!
Seattle Mariners Fancare
My bad–Clint’s a righty. Is it the chronic lower back that finally did him in/affected his delivery? I never got a clear sense of his injury situation, just that he’s damaged goods. And to think that as recently as 04 this guy was being touted for the rotation.
42: This is a mediocre team, but it should be slightly improved from last year, not mostly because of the moves made but because the young players get a year older and some of the veterans had off years. They might stay in the race for a while, if the other teams in the division struggle. Unfortunately, this, with a winning record, might be enough to save Bavasi’s and/or Hargrove’s job. Probably (and hopefully) not, though.
FWIW, my closing line in my initial email to Fancare was this:
“I hope there are better moves on the horizon, but a successful team is built around solid low-cost talent, veteran role players where bargains can be found, and with some true superstars to fill out the roster. We seem to want to build the team of the future with the aged past. It won’t work.”
Like the 04 team, I suspect this group will be behind in games from the the outset, in starts 2-5. I also suspect they struggle to score runs like the 06 team. Its not a recipe to win consistently. 73-76 wins
Any chance of another move that bumps that up?
Here is what I don’t understand. many of the “rumors” about the M’s and Zito seem to end with this comment:
“But the Mariners are weary that they are being used as leverage to get Zito a bigger contract elsewhere”
If we agree that the Ms really don’t want to (can’t) sign him then why wouldn’t they try to push up his contract value? Especially if teams like Texas and LAA are looking to sign him.
Any chance of another move that bumps that up?
Sure – if they traded Ben Broussard, Jose Vidro, Horacio Ramirez, and Jeremy Reed to the Braves for Tim Hudson, Adam LaRoche, Andruw Jones, Jeff Francouer, John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox, and the MARTA train, their odds would improve.
Shockingly, though, I don’t see that happening. They’ll deal Broussard for a reliever, sign a generic veteran backup catcher, and give a couple of million to a below average LH reliever and call it an offseason.
Nageotte’s arm is shredded. I keep getting mixed up if it’s a shoulder injury or an elbow injury, but I’m pretty sure it’s the former (since elbow injuries are much easier to deal with than shoulder injuries nowadays, and he opted not to have surgery). He’s got no velocity left, and got hit around a ton in Cheney because of it. My MarinersMorsels compadre spent a lot more time in Cheney than I did, and Nageotte was one of his favorites (read this August report here, for example).. It saddened him a bit to see Nageotte in the shape he’s in. Saddens me, too.
I wonder, given the response to my earlier post, what someone here thinks would have been the right thing to do this off-season?
Dave said clearly that what would get him to Safeco is “a winner.”
What were the real moves that would have done that?
I think too much time is spent on this site speculating on what could be as if the conversations we have are somehow relevant to the reality of what a real GM faces.
For example, could the Mariners really have gotten a better deal for Soriano? What real world evidence does anyone have of that? If Soriano wasn’t traded who in the world would the Mariners start next season?
Zito is simply the best pitcher available right now. What he gets paid I’m sure will shock most fans. But it is what he is worth, that’s how a free agent market works.
I don’t have any real belief he will sign with the Mariners, but if he did it would give them a much better chance to win one out of every five games then they have today.
In all honesty, I would have rather the FO did NOTHING this offseason. No trade of Soriano. No trade of Snelling. Let Meche and Pineiro walk. The team would actually be better than it is right now. That is how sad this offseason has been.
I think this Barry Zito to the M’s talk is designed to do two things: Drive up his price and temporarily pacify the angry masses who want the M’s to pursue a big name player. Nothing more, nothing less…I hope.
#51 Dave: Heck they might as well just bring up that catcher they have at AAA (can’t remember his name, not Clement but..?) and put Huber and Woods in the Bullpen than spend anymore money or trade Broussard. This looks like another last place finish for 07. Not much to look forward to. How many wins would Zito be good for in 07 if the Mariners signed him? Would that move be enough to compete for a AL West Championship in 07?
COME ON PEOPLE!!! Barry Zito said that he’s excited to join a future dynasty like the Mariners and is really excited because when he spoke with Hargrove, he was promised that he could catch and DH on his non-pitching days. No one else will offer him that! That’s why the M’s will land him!
But ask yourself this question, what exactly will get you to pay well over $100 to bring your family to a game at Safeco this year? Batista? Ramirez? Baek?
And four out of five games you wouldn’t get Zito either, even if they did sign him. Zito may be a “name” but that’s not worth the money it would take to sign him. Ichiro is a “name” and he’s already paid for; properly marketed, Betancourt and (especially) Felix could be “names” too (and marketing costs a whole lot less than what Zito is going to get). Soriano and Snelling could have been too, but oh well. Of course, that’s assuming Felix can deliver, which assumes he spends a little more of the offseason with the strength and conditioning coaches and a little less with bags of Doritos.
And yeah, the marketing would be a whole lot easier if the team was winning and a contender. Seven-year umpty-million contracts to iffy pitchers is not the way to get that, either. (BTW, I wouldn’t be surprised if Zito in a Mets uniform looks pretty good, and puts up some ace numbers, at least for a year or two. Going to the NL often does that for AL pitchers — just ask Bronson Arroyo. That doesn’t mean Zito would do the same for the M’s, though I predict you’ll hear a lot of screaming about it all the same).
Of course all of this is moot. I don’t think anyone believes the M’s are bidding on Zito, but Boras certainly wants the other teams to think they might be.
BTW, in an article introduced with “Not every free-agent contract this winter was a Gil Meche-sized nightmare,” SI’s Jon Heyman lists several (debatably) reasonable contracts handed out this off-season, and at the top of the list is one I didn’t hear anything about: Randy Wolf, LAD, $8M for one year.
54: With the exception of the Guillen signing, I’d agree with you that no moves would have been better than the moves made. The Guillen deal has real potential. And the Batista deal isn’t completely atrocious (SOMEONE would have to pitch in place of Meche and Pineiro, and Batista answers half of that.)
But it is what he is worth, that’s how a free agent market works.
No, it’s not. That’s how an efficient market works, but MLB is one of the least efficient economic markets anywhere in the world. The existance of price ceilings on a huge majority of the players in the talent pool cancels any free market ideas you might want to attach to free agency.
Seriously, there’s no logical standing for the belief that a player is worth what the free agent market will bear. People who continue to repeat that statement deserve to be ignored.
New to this board and glad to be here!
My biggest frustration with the M’s is that they have traded away inexpensive players like Snelling, Choo (last year) and Soriano that are all very talented and can give the same or better production to players like Vidro and Jose Guillen.
When you have minimum salary, young, talented players, you need to treat them like gold and hang on to them or deal them for significant upgrades. For example, a trade for a Dan Haren type or some, good, young SP, would have made more sense.
I would have rather we kept Choo last year and Snelling this year…put Choo in RF, Snelling in LF, Ichiro in CF and Raul at DH. Not having signed Guillen and traded for Vidro would have saved the M’s $11.5 million and not having Broussard is likely another $3-4. Would we be much worse? Doubtful and we might be better with a ton of upside for the future as well as roster flexibility.
The extra money could have been used to lock up the core such as Betancourt, Lopez, Putz and an extension for Ichiro.
So, I agree with the fan that said nothing would have been better. Not having traded for Broussard last year as well as Vidro and Haracio this year and not having signed Guillen or Batista would have saved the M’s about $25-26 mil. We could have used some of that on Schmidt and saved the rest for next year.
It is just very discouraging as a fan to see the M’s continually trade away young talent for over the hill players.
61 — I agree with your core idea, but, realistically, I don’t think the M’s could have competed with an outfield of Choo/Ichiro/Snelling. That is not a big-league outfield. Now, the FO didn’t do much to improve on that, but the point is that something needed to be done. What was done wasn’t effective, but the M’s couldn’t sit pat with that outfield and expect to contend.
The Mariners have real world problems. They can’t use the FA market because it is not economically efficient; they can’t trade because they have no value to trade (because of the bad dealings already made this off-season)and they can’t home grow their own(cupboard is bare on the farm). This sounds really hopeless. It sounds like a complete rebuild needs to take place.
A Snelling, Choo, Ichiro outfield would project to hit — 30 HR total this year? That (wouldn’t) won’t cut it.
Home runs are not the single measure of a team’s offense.
61 — I agree with your core idea, but, realistically, I don’t think the M’s could have competed with an outfield of Choo/Ichiro/Snelling. That is not a big-league outfield.
Detroit’s outfield, 2006:
LF – Monroe – .255/.301/.482 and Thames – .256/.333/.549
CF – Granderson -.260/.335/.438
RF – Ordonez – .299/.350/.477
You care to explain to me how that’s good enough to get a team to the World Series, but Choo/Ichiro/Snelling isn’t major league quality?
62 and 64, I agree with you and they needed to upgrade the outfield. My point was I would have rather had that outfield at a much lower cost than acquiring Vidro and Guillen at a cost of 11.5 mil.
Now I do think Guillen could work out, but I am sick over the Snelling trade. I think he could be a left-handed version of Edgar if he stays healthy and reaches his full potential.
This team needed to vastly improve it’s starting rotation #1 and that has not been done.
It’s the trades that have been terrible. The FA signings in Guillen and Batista aren’t bad, and considering what other FA signings have been, that made Bavasi look real good. (BTW, what happened with Thomson? Issues in his med reports? I loved that idea).
If you just undid the two trades and went out and signed an actual major league backup catcher I would be really excited for this team.
Also, I don’t think Snelling or Choo have reached their full power potential yet either.
Well, this makes sense, certainly. But considering the baffling, head-scratching stuff that has come out of this organization recently, that may not entirely be the case. Let’s hope it is, of course, because Zito is NOT the superstar he will soon be paid to be. He could very well be the next Mike Hampton.
Dave – Your point is excellent about Detroit’s outfield.
Pitching wins in baseball, period and Detroit had it last year. The M’s have the worst rotation in the AL West (maybe equal to Texas) and that is why they finish last. These marginal at best offensive upgrades are not going to help them get out of last. In addition, my argument is that the money wasted on very marginal at best upgrades has depleted resources that could be used on starting pitching either this year or next year.
#66 Dave: The only difference I can see is the addition of all those HR’s and RBI’s from Detroit’s players vs Ms players you list.
Come on, Dave — that is absurd. First, no one (yourself included) believed that Detroit would get to the World Series last year. So, you would certainly not have pointed me to that outfield and argued that Detroit would contend before it actually happened.
Second, Detroit made it to the WS in spite of, not because of, that outfield. The Mariners are missing just about every other element that the Tigers had — great starting pitching, someone who can hit at third (yes, I would take Inge over Beltre), a good offensive shortstop (Betancourt is not there yet), a good manager, etc.
Third, I think you would agree with me that Detroit got lucky last year. They will, in all likelihood, not be back in the playoffs this year. And the outfield may have something to do with that (though it was upgraded with Sheffield).
I stand by my statement — if you think Snelling/Ichiro/Choo is an outfield we should be shooting for, good luck with that.
Pitching wins in baseball, period and Detroit had it last year.
Actually, what Detroit had was defense. Detroit’s Fielding Independant ERA was 4.36, which is a little better than average. But their glovework was phenomenal, especially on the infield. According to the Hardball Times data, the Tigers infield turned 74 more balls in play into outs than expected, which is a monumental accomplishment, and made an average-ish pitching staff look great.
In addition, my argument is that the money wasted on very marginal at best upgrades has depleted resources that could be used on starting pitching either this year or next year.
This is certainly true. The last two offseasons, the M’s have spent significant amounts of money in moderate chunks, and have done so horribly, when they would have been much better off using it to buy significant talents and surrounding them with low cost role players.
This is more of a MLB market question and how it relates to an indicator like Zito.
It’s obvious that the FA market has its ebbs and flows like any other financial market – fed by irresponsible GM’s. Even as crazy as this year has been I don’t think we have regained the level that was achieved with the year of the Manny and ARod contracts. Yet just three seasons ago Vlad and Miggy couldn’t crack $15/year?
My question is: Where is this FA market heading? Are we looking at the peak of insanity this year, or can we expect a few $20-$25 contracts dished out in 07′?
I’m sure my statement is an over-simplification, but I was hoping the M’s would pass on this FA market, mix in a few conservative trades, and continue to build within. Then in 07′ or 08′ after the market had peaked they could sweep in and pick up the few remaining pieces they needed to make a serious run at the post season. As it stands now, it appears the M’s will be spending 07′ and 08′ getting rid of the dead weight they picked up and signed in 06′…Just like all the other irresponsible teams.
I’m still waiting for someone to Photoshop Bavasi as The Grinch.
And, of course, the most obvious thing: Thames/Granderson/Ordonez is better than Choo/Ichiro/Snelling.
No it’s not.
Come on, Dave — that is absurd. First, no one (yourself included) believed that Detroit would get to the World Series last year. So, you would certainly not have pointed me to that outfield and argued that Detroit would contend before it actually happened.
Your point was that a team cannot contend with an outfield of Ichiro, Snelling, and Choo. I simply showed you that is not true. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and having an outfield of Ramirez-Edmonds-Dye isn’t the only way to field a winning team.
Second, Detroit made it to the WS in spite of, not because of, that outfield.
Sure. And the Mariners could have contended in spite of an outfield of Choo, Ichiro, and Snelling, because the money saved could have been used to significantly upgrade the rest of the roster.
The Mariners are missing just about every other element that the Tigers had — great starting pitching, someone who can hit at third (yes, I would take Inge over Beltre), a good offensive shortstop (Betancourt is not there yet), a good manager, etc.
Brandon Inge – .776 OPS, 80 runs created
Adrian Beltre – .792 OPS, 90 runs created
I stand by my statement — if you think Snelling/Ichiro/Choo is an outfield we should be shooting for, good luck with that.
I think there’s a significant benefit to having 67% of your outfield make peanuts. Snelling and Choo have essentially been replaced by Guillen and Vidro – for $12 million more, the Mariners got worse. Snelling + Choo + $12 million can get you on the road towards a good team.
My question is: Where is this FA market heading? Are we looking at the peak of insanity this year, or can we expect a few $20-$25 contracts dished out in 07?
This article by Dave Studeman does a great job of showing the peaks and valleys of MLB spending. There will certainly be a backlash to this winter’s stupid spending, and you can expect free agent prices to depress in the not too distant future.
Not if Bavasi is spending that $12M.
Dave is encouraging people to ignore me in my first-ever day posting on this site. Nice.
But I press on undaunted.
I have to say that I come to this as a Mariners fan and not from the fantasy world where, it should be pointed out, I had my behind handed to me by regular USSMariner contributor Jeff Shaw this year.
As a fan I have little concern over the actual financial dealings of the teams. If the Yankees and Red Sox pay $150 million for players, so be it. If the Mariners need to bust their budget to put a decent team on the field, fine by me.
As a fan I can do nothing about the system — it is what it is.
Right now I have little hope for 2007. Maybe Zito bumps them up a notch in a weak division. It sure wouldn’t make things worse.
Maybe Nintendo can sell a few more Wii game systems to make up the difference.
Home runs are not the sole measure of offense — of course not — but show me the last time a team won a World Series, or even a division, with an outfield that combined to hit 30 or fewer home runs.
I stand by my statement that a Snelling/Ichiro/Choo outfield wouldn’t cut it.
The trade route is the optimal way to get are true #1 (and maybe a #2) starter. Replacing Sexton and even Inchiro as vehicles to get some top of the rotation pitchers will significantly improve the team balance
Dave is encouraging people to ignore me in my first-ever day posting on this site. Nice.
They don’t call me the welcome wagon for nothing.
As a fan I have little concern over the actual financial dealings of the teams. If the Yankees and Red Sox pay $150 million for players, so be it. If the Mariners need to bust their budget to put a decent team on the field, fine by me.
Interesting that you note that you’re not approaching this from a fantasy perspective, but then suggest that the team simply ignore their mandated budget.
Maybe Zito bumps them up a notch in a weak division. It sure wouldn’t make things worse.
You don’t think the Neagle/Hampton debacles made the Rockies worse and had a hand in the degeneration of that franchise?
Maybe Nintendo can sell a few more Wii game systems to make up the difference.
If Nintendo’s revenue flowed freely into the Mariners coffers, then you’d have a point. But it doesn’t, and we have to assume that the Mariners are working within a confined payroll limitation, and the repercussions of signing players to bloated contracts are real.
Pretending like player’s salaries don’t matter, well, there’s nothing closer to fantasy baseball than that.
#83 – Have Snelling or Choo reached their potential yet? Not even close. So how do you know that that outfield would look like in a year or two?
Save that money spent on marginal at best upgrades and it could have been used on a guy like Schmidt.
…or even a division, with an outfield that combined to hit 30 or fewer home runs.
The Twins just won arguably the most competitive division in baseball, and the only teams that hit fewer HR than the Twins were the Pirates and the Royals. It doesn’t really matter who hits the HR or who doesn’t, but it’s clear that you don’t need to be good at hitting HR to be a successful team.
Trying to make up “championship teams do this” and “championship teams do that” rules is highly counterproductive when you’re looking at what moves an individual team should make given a unique set of resources. There’s more than one way to skin this cat.
82: If you’re operating under the assumption that the dollars don’t matter in constructing a roster, I’d argue that you are, in fact, coming at this from the fantasy world.
#87 – Agree with you. Twins have a flat out ace in Johan Santana and seem to have pitching and defense every year. Liriano was an ace for a good chunk of the season as well.
When the M’s won 116 games, it was built on pitching and defense.
Fine, but you would have to agree that — on average — it is easier to find outfielders who can hit with power than it is players at other positions (except first base). So, if you are going to punt power in the outfield, your job has become that much tougher. It can be done, but I certainly wouldn’t trust the current administration to find creative solutions to compensate for the below-average production in the outfield.
It was also built on an amazing offense top to bottom.
Fine, but you would have to agree that — on average — it is easier to find outfielders who can hit with power than it is players at other positions (except first base).
You mean like Kenji Johjima, Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Jose Lopez, Raul Ibanez, and Ben Broussard?
So, if you are going to punt power in the outfield, your job has become that much tougher. It can be done, but I certainly wouldn’t trust the current administration to find creative solutions to compensate for the below-average production in the outfield.
The below-average production (offensively) in the outfield has already been compensated for – they would have had above average offensive contributors at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. The pieces you want were already in place.
In two years…
Ichiro *may* be playing here. He will have likely settled in to a batting average right around .300. He won’t get infield singles forever.
Choo will be a 4th outfielder someplace.
Snelling — if he stays reasonably healthy — *may* be a servicable corner outfielder. If his power develops.
I’m always shocked when people trot that “pitching and defense in 2001″ canard out for a lap.
The M’s scored 5.72 runs *a game* in 2001. In Safeco. League average was 4.86. It was first by a fat margin. They led the league in pitching, too, allowing 3.87 runs a game, but in Safeco that’s not nearly as impressive as the offensive accomplishment.
The other frustration here is what is the M’s philosophy?
When Bavasi was brought in, the whole idea was that he knew how to build a farm system and that this team was going to re-tool and upgrade the farm system. Why then are we trading away top prospects in our system like Choo and Snelling and replacing them with average players like Broussard and Vidro who make a lot more money?
I think most fans would have preferred to go young and totally rebuild – the Cleveland Indians model – rather than throw money at aging players on the decline in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.
And they still had a below-average offense. So, no, the crappy production from the outfield was not compensated for. Beltre is not above average at third, Lopez is not yet above average at second (he might be in the future, but not now), Sexson is average at best, and Ibanez is an average at best DH. So, I disagree with your premise.
#94 – Not once did I discount the M’s offense in 2001. Boone and Edgar had career years and it was a great offense. Just saying that the foundation of that team was pitching and defense. I think the M’s set the recrod for fewest errors that year. Cammy, Ichiro, Boone, Olerud were all gold gloves…Guille and Bell were very solid at SS and 3B.
To win 116 games, all phases of the team have to be great and they were.
I would never argue that dollars don’t matter to a team in constructing a roster.
I am arguing, in fact, that the dollars don’t matter TO ME in how the Mariners construct the roster. I don’t care if they are $50 million over their artificially created salary cap or $75 million below.
And to be honest I think I am representative of the majority of folks who buy tickets to games. We want to go see a winner. If breaking the budget for Zito helps do that, we’re for it.
It seems to me what is really being debated here is what each of us would do if we had the Mariners money in our pocket — how would we construct a team.
Sorry gentleman, but that is the purest form of fantasy. None of us will ever be given the opportunity.
But scott47a, you are really missing the point: Signing Zito to a big $$, longterm contract will NOT make the team much better and likely WILL hurt the team longterm. So, it would actually be counterproductive to the goals you are advocating. See, e.g., Colorado Rockies (signing Neagle and Hampton).
And they still had a below-average offense.
Wrong. They just played in the toughest run scoring environment in the AL. They posted a .268 EqA as a team, exactly the same as Detroit, and tied for 8th in the league. They were a league average offense with Carl Everett as their DH.
Beltre is not above average at third, Lopez is not yet above average at second (he might be in the future, but not now), Sexson is average at best, and Ibanez is an average at best DH. So, I disagree with your premise.
You do realize below average means that there are at least seven players at the position better in the American League, right? You can’t name seven better hitting third baseman in the AL than Adrian Beltre. Ditto Lopez at second, Sexson at first, and Ibanez at DH.
You can disagree with my premise all you want, but that doesn’t make you right.
The 2001 M’s didn’t exactly punt power in the outfield either. Ichiro/Cameron/Martin/Buhner totalled only 42 HR. Still, Ichiro’s SLG was .457 and Cameron’s was .480.
The also had:
Edgar: .543 SLG
Boone: .578 SLG
Olerud: .472 SLG
Wow, I had no idea the Mariners were that offensive in 2001. Way to go local media.
Snelling will hit .450+ slugging without too much problem if healthy.
I think our biggest problem is the Woods/Baek crapfest in the #5 hole. Not that I would champion signing Zito or anything…
Other than, I think the only glaring problems are Vidro’s bat and Ibanez’s glove– which makes that trade even more stupid because we could have gone after a decent fielding LF and likely ended up with someone at least as good as Vidro with the stick.
Also, a major league quality back-up C would be nice.
Actually, that would be the median, not the mean wouldn’t it?
A-Rod, Glaus, Teahen, Chavez, Lowell, Huff (including NL numbers), and Izturis all had numbers (by EQA) equal to or better than Beltre. Not to mention Cabrera, Atkins, Wright, Jones, Ramirez, Rolen, Sanchez, Ensberg, and Zimmerman in the NL. So, overall, he was at best an average 3B, certainly not enough to compensate for a below-average outfield.
And my goal, sir, is not to have an average offense — it is to have an above average offense. The M’s did not have that last year and carrying an underproducing outfield is not the way to change that, which was the whole point of this discussion.
They also had a .360 OBP. As a TEAM. There was a reason “two outs, so what” was actually viable. For comparison, here are the guys on the 2006 M’s who individually had OBP’s of .360 or better:
Ichiro! .370
Snelling .360
Morse .396
Dobbs .393
Navarro .667
Four of those guys put together had less PA than one of ‘em by himself.
“Two out, so what?” No. More like, “Two outs, inning over.”
Well, I gotta disagree with you Dave, but hey, that’s what discussion is for right? lol.
You can toss all the numbers at me you want but I still think he’ll be a good signing even long-term. I could see him winning 15+ games, 200+ innings, with an era under or at 4 for most of those years. He’s only 29 – not ready to fall off the planet as some of you suggest. You also say that someone saying the cost he will be this year is justified cause that is how the market is – should be ignored. I would counter that someone that doesn’t see how the market is and holds to older numbers should also be ignored. Like it or not – this is how the contracts are – they are getting bigger and we need to, and can easily do, increase our payroll to make this signing seem lower. Its just the reality of the economics in today’s baseball like it or not. Sure i’d rather we paid/offered him 12-14 mill but that’s like going to a gun fight with a water gun – just isn’t gonna happen.
In short, I think while not the best value – I think we’d get a lot better value out of him and the contract than you think. Just have to agree to disagree. One thing I do agree with though – I seriously doubt we sign them so its a moot point.
#96: And they still had a below-average offense.
And that’s simply not true. After correcting for Safeco Field, the Mariners had close to a league average, comparable to the Texas Rangers.
That’s right – Ameriquest artifically boosts offense about as much as Safeco depresses offense.
2006 Team EQA (Baseball Prospectus)Team EQA
==== =====
NYY 0.289
CLE 0.283
TOR 0.276
CHI 0.274
BOS 0.273
BAL 0.272
LAA 0.270
MIN 0.270
DET 0.268
SEA 0.268
TEX 0.268
OAK 0.267
KCA 0.262
TB 0.259
Where did the Mariner’s place last season in Team OBP and hits with runners in scoring position? With 15 times shut out last year there has to be room for improvement or at least the place to start improving the team during this off season(After fixing the starting rotation of course).It seems to me that a search for players with good OBP + Hits/RISP = more runs and wins. These must be the types of players that Oakland and the Twins have. These two franchises are sucessful with lower salary budgets. I know this is the result of their home grown players. Gee, I think I will pass that nugget to the Mariner FO. Do you think they might listen?
With respect to Lopez, you can argue that Iguchi, Cano, Roberts, DeRosa, Loretta, Castillo, and Hill had better years. Average, at best.
With respect to Sexson, I give you Morneau, Teixeira, Konerko, Giambi, Overbay, Swisher, and Overbay.
With respect to Ibanez, I give you Ortiz, Hafner, Thome, Thomas, and … Well, you might have me there.
Wolf was prob. the first free agent signing of the year, and he took less to pitch in LA
“The 30-year-old Wolf will earn $7.5 million next year, and the Dodgers have a $9 million option for 2008 with a $500,000 buyout. His 2008 salary would become guaranteed if he pitches 180 innings next season.
“In my mind, if I’m healthy, it’s going to be a two-year contract,” Wolf said. “I could have gone to the highest bidder. To me, going to the highest bidder wasn’t the most important thing.”
w/r/t 2001:
If you want to believe that a team that featured an amazing offense and good pitching/defense was built on a foundation of pitching and defense, whatever. Play with your terminology however you want.
But that team’s greatest strength was a relentless offensive attack, that relative to its peers was far better than the strength of their pitching or defense. If that’s not the greater basis for their success, well, you can say banana cake pattern fixer for all I care.
leave us not forget “two outs, who cares”
Sorry, I meant Youkilis instead of the second Overbay, but I recognize that is pushing it.
I always thought that “Two Outs, So What” thing was really stupid.
It seems to me that having the highest percentage of your runs score in an inning at an event different than two outs would be the baseball equivalent of defying gravity.
I don’t know what the numbers are, but something like this should be typical:
0 Outs: 20% of runs scored
1 Outs: 30% of runs scored
2 Outs: 50% of runs scored
Anyone know the actual numbers?
Nothing like a bunch of nitwits waving “Two Out, So What?” signs.
Why, Frenchonion?
If you count sac flies and RBI groundouts as happening with the amount of outs there were when the pitch was thrown, shouldn’t 2 outs pretty much always have a lower run distribution?
Also, I this is a little obvious, but the more outs in an inning, the more action has occurred and the more likely it is a previous batter has reached base.
I’m making that assumption because hitters make outs more often than not so by extention there will usually be outs before anyone scores…I’m looking for the numbers now, I saw the 2001 M’s numbers years ago..
Thanks Mariner Dan (#99)
I appreciate the thoughts that I’m missing the point. But I think that I understand the point and don’t agree with it.
Lake Lamda said in #108, we’ll have to agree to disagree, I guess.
I can’t see how anyone could argue that having Zito is worse than running out Ramirez or Batista or who knows what 5th starter every 5 days.
You could argue he isn’t worth the money, or would put some kind of long-term crimp in the organization’s imagined salary cap ala the Sonics and Vin Baker. But pitching wise and team-win wise he is a very considerable step up from the what the Mariners currently plan to offer on the mound.
A-Rod, Glaus, Teahen, Chavez, Lowell, Huff (including NL numbers), and Izturis all had numbers (by EQA) equal to or better than Beltre.
Izturis got all of 352 at-bats last year. He wasn’t a full time player, and if he had been, his numbers would have suffered since he can’t hit lefties.
With respect to Lopez, you can argue that Iguchi, Cano, Roberts, DeRosa, Loretta, Castillo, and Hill had better years. Average, at best.
Uhh, no. If you think Luis Castillo’s .728 OPS in the Metrodome or Aaron Hill’s .735 OPS in the Skydome are the equal to Lopez’s .723 OPS in Safeco, you’re nuts.
With respect to Sexson, I give you Morneau, Teixeira, Konerko, Giambi, Overbay, Swisher, and Overbay.
You counted Overbay twice, Swisher’s worse, and Giambi’s a DH.
And my goal, sir, is not to have an average offense — it is to have an above average offense. The M’s did not have that last year and carrying an underproducing outfield is not the way to change that, which was the whole point of this discussion.
The M’s didn’t have that last year because of Carl Everett – the position players were above average offensively. Replacing Carl Everett should be the easiest job in the world for any GM. Improving this offense was so easy, a child could have done it.
I could see him winning 15+ games, 200+ innings, with an era under or at 4 for most of those years.
Okay, here’s a challenge for you – find me a list of pitchers who performed at essentially the same level for nine consecutive years without injury or decline. It’s going to be a short, short list.
I would counter that someone that doesn’t see how the market is and holds to older numbers should also be ignored.
I’m not holding to any older numbers. I’m suggesting that there are more effective ways to build a roster than free agency. You can disagree with that if you want, but you’re going to be wrong.
If there was a 100% chance that Zito would repeat his average performance over the last three years, with no decline in performance and no chance for injury, he still wouldn’t be worth $16 or $17 million per season. He’s just not an elite pitcher. He hasn’t been for several years.
Hasn’t been an elite pitcher for several years? Come on! He’s just four years removed from winning the Cy Young, and remains one of the best and reliable arms in the AL. He gets ground balls, fly outs, and strikeouts – a perfect fit at Safeco. Plus, Zito is only 28. He should have plenty of good years left in him.
Is it a gamble? Of course, but give me a better starter than Zito in the AL West. And, it’s better than the M’s marching out there with Washburn on the mound on opening day.
He’s just four years removed from winning the Cy Young…
In 2002, Eric Hinske was the rookie of the year, Billy Koch and Eddie Guardado led the league in saves, Garret Anderson and Bernie Williams won a silver slugger award, Mike Sweeney finished second in the league in batting average, Rick Reed had the lowest walk rate of any AL pitcher, and Eric Milton posted a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Needless to say, four years is an eternity in baseball.
Zito’s about 10-15 runs better than an average major league starting pitcher, assuming he doesn’t decline. If you think that’s worth $17 million, well, you’re probably qualified to be one of the Mariners assistant GMs.
#122 – My argument was they should have NOT signed Guillen or Batista and not have traded for Haracio or Vidro. Not doing those moves would have saved the team $22.5 mil this year. They could have left the offense as is with Broussard as the DH and Snelling in RF.
I would have rather then seen the M’s spend a combined $30 mil on BOTH Schmidt and Zito which would have been possible. Schmidt signed for $15 mil/year roughly and Zito can be had for that most likely if a team makes a 6 year plus commitment.
Dave, I know you will disagree with this, but at least this strategy would have solved the pitching rotation by putting Schdmit at #1, Zito at #2, Felix at #3, Washburn at #4 and Baek/Woods type at #5. That rotation could be the best in the AL West and the offense could expect to improve with improvements out of the younger players and a full year of Broussard vs. Everett.
Plus, we would still have Soriano in the pen.
That strategy would have solved the #1 problem, the rotation, while keeping the pen strong, not hurting the offense and not going that much over budget. In 2-3 years if the team was looking to re-tool I am sure someone would trade for Zito. Plus Sexson comes off the books in two years and Washburn and Beltre in 3.
Translation: You can support your argument all you want, but I’m going to ignore your logic and repeat my unsupported opinion.
Felix Hernandez? Rich Harden? Dan Haren?
um. just on his own team there is Dan Haren.
only if they want to come here, and there is/was no indication that either of them would. Schmidt didn’t take the biggest payout to go to the Dodgers — he remained in the NL West with two people he is close to in Colletti & Stan Conte.
Izturis got all of 352 at-bats last year. He wasn’t a full time player, and if he had been, his numbers would have suffered since he can’t hit lefties.
I note that you didn’t refute the other six names — putting Beltre exactly where I said he was: “not above average.”
As for Lopez/Sexson, the same thing applies: “not above average,” ate least not significantly.
These are two incredibly intelligent statements. The first probably describes exactly what’s going to happen through the rest of the off-season, while the second perfectly illustrates the point that what happened 4 years ago simply doesn’t matter.
oh, well, here is the answer.
There seem to be some serious misunderstandings here on the difference between median and mean.
Not many people in any walk of life understand the difference between “median” and “mean”…it’s not just here.
There seem to be some serious misunderstandings here on the difference between median and mean.
No misunderstanding — median is the point where an equal number fall above and below. Mean is an average. I think we were both using the term “average” in an imprecise manner, but I think everyone gets the general point. Namely, that I’m right. (That was just a joke, people.)
You truly think Lopez won’t improve with another year under his belt?
Hm. Well, he is under Hargrove….
Looking back at it, one of the worst moves in the last calendar year has been to move Ibanez to LF. That was the first domino that fell in the chain of events that led to losing four prospects and adding about $3M in payroll for Benuardo and $12M in payroll for Vidro just to fill the position that Ibanez should be manning.
It does make me wonder what might have been if Ibanez had been content at DH.
You truly think Lopez won’t improve with another year under his belt?
I think he will. But I also think Sexson will likely decline, Beltre won’t improve, and Ibanez will decline. So, the general point still stands — the offense isn’t good enough to carry a below-average outfield.
No misunderstanding — median is the point where an equal number fall above and below. Mean is an average. I think we were both using the term “average” in an imprecise manner, but I think everyone gets the general point.
In many distributions, the difference between the mean and the median is insignificant. I think that’s the case here.
Except none of those numbers are accurate. I’m a Lopez fan, but let’s try your statement with the real numbers.
“If you think Luis Castillo’s .739 OPS in the Metrodome or Aaron Hill’s .763 OPS in the Skydome are the equal to Lopez’s .645 OPS in Safeco, you’re nuts.
Do you still stand by this corrected statement?
so to wrap up:
- currently this team sucks, and there is almost no chance of making the playoffs
- signing Zito (or pretty much any FA pitcher available) is not a smart move
- even if they did, it will not improve the team by much
- there isn’t really anything left the team can do to improve the team in the short-term
sigh…
In 2006, Luis Castillo had a .251 EQA, Hill had a .249 EQA, and Lopez had a .248 EQA. By VORP, Castillo, Hill, and Lopez were within 3 runs of each other at 6-8 in the AL. RARP has them at 4, 6, and 7. They all had essentially the same offensive season, and were all essentially at the AL 2B average line of .280/.332/.395 once you adjust for park.
If the point in question is whether or not Lopez was a league average 2B–splitting hairs on whether a couple of guys were slightly ahead of him is totally beside the point–Lopez clearly had a league average season offensively for his position.
Sure they are.
Castillo put up a .728 OPS for the SEASON, playing half his games at the Metrodome.
Hill put up a .735 OPS for the SEASON, playing half his games at Skydome.
Did you really think Dave would just make those numbers up? C’mon,
So, you’re correcting him as well, just in a different way. He made a specific, incorrect statement. I’m sure he would have corrected others on here if a similar, blatantly obvious error was made.
I believe that Lopez will put together a fine season next year. A better year than Bavasi’s handpicked DH, at the very least.
I had no idea that someone would take that literally, thinking I was talking about their performances in that specific park.
To me, and I’d imagine almost everyone else, the inference of “Player X in Y park” simply means that it was a commentary on their performance after adjusting for their home park.
It’s a pretty common way to write things.
Well no, not really. I suppose that some of us are more detail-oriented than others. There is no other way to read your original statement. It rang false, which is what prompted me to look up the information. I didn’t want others to get the impression that Jose’s Safeco numbers were in any way comparable to the other two in their home parks. That being said, I’ll take Lopez on my team any day.
#142 was the correct way to make that point, if indeed that was your original point and not some unseemly form of damage control.
Nice.
Right, because I go around making up numbers, and then, when caught, I have Jason come up with a plausible explanation.
Give me a break. You read it wrong.
In the back of my mind, I always suspected that Jason commented from behind a picket fence on the grassy knoll, but now I’m sure of it!!
Um, Ralph? This is taking pendantry to it’s extreme, I’ve got to say. As Dave noted, ‘X in Y park’ is talking about the stats for a season with a specific home park, and it has for as long as I’ve been reading the phrase.
Zito’s about 10-15 runs better than an average major league starting pitcher, assuming he doesn’t decline. If you think that’s worth $17 million, …
Dave, how would you translate those 10-15 runs (PRAA) into wins and how do the wins translate into $$? Obviously we’re talking about something Boras would laugh at, but what kind of contract would you offer Zito — something like 4/40?
I have to jump in with a comment.
Those would be normal distributions, in a normal distribution (the so-called bell curve) the mean is equal to the median. In a skewed distribution, the mean is farther toward the tail.
Since we are only talking about the teams in the AL, we can just glance up and down the table of the numbers, and if they seem to be somewhat normally distributed we can assume that the median team(s) will be performing at close to the league average number. Of course, it could be calculated out, but for general conversation it’s probably close enough.
And as for Zito, I’ll repeat something I posted awhile back. The best thing that could happen for the M’s long term would be for Texas to give Zito a 7 year, 120 million contract.
Gentlemen: Not to worry, the Mariner’s FO will not do a contract with Zito for 6 years or more. They just won’t. They will do one for 5/80+ however.Which means Zito will have to prefer Seattle over the rest. This of course will be Zito’s last contract and Boro’s has convinced him it has to be big and with a winner(Mets). Favorites to sign Zito, 1) Mets, 2) Giants …. distant 3)Texas
66-
LF – Monroe – .255/.301/.482
Thames – .256/.333/.549
CF – Granderson -.260/.335/.438
RF – Ordonez – .299/.350/.47
You care to explain to me how thats good enough to get a team to the World Series, but Choo/Ichiro/Snelling isnt major league quality?
(hopefully that is in quotes)
Dave. I have never written before, I need some clarification. the Detroit outfield you compare to snelling, choo, and ichiro to had 97 home runs and 324 RBIs last year. how is that not a darn good outfield. And how would snell-choo-Ro be mentioned in the same breath?
Yeah, an eternity when you start throwing out names like Koch, Guardado, and Bernie Williams. Besides Hinske, the rest of the guys you mentioned were older and on the downsides of their careers. Any one of them, besides Garrett Anderson, still have a starting job in baseball?
Zito does.
He won 16 games last season, and besides going 11-11 in 2004, he has won at least 14 games each season since 2001. Also has pitched 200 or more innings each season since 2001.
Who do you consider as an average major league pitcher? Washburn? Perhaps he’s worth more to the Mariners than I realized, if Zito is only somewhat better?
Those would be normal distributions, in a normal distribution (the so-called bell curve) the mean is equal to the median. In a skewed distribution, the mean is farther toward the tail.
Not strictly true. The mean is equal to the median in any symmetric distribution, not just the normal distribution. The uniform distribution, for instance, is another distribution where the mean is the same as the median. Certainly the distributions we’re talking about here aren’t perfectly symmetric, but I invite you to take a look at them. As I stated back in #141, Castillo, Hill, and Lopez are all essentially at the mean and median of the league.
Highly skewed distributions are certainly where the distinction between mean and median is important, but outside of the salary distribution, I can’t think of anything in baseball where you’re dealing with a highly skewed distribution.
Zito is by far the best pitching option available to the Mariners, aside from trade… and as we all know, we’d rather have staples jammed under our fingernails than give Bavasi any more authority to make trades.
The Mariners need to get better – now. They need to show not only US that they’re turning it around, but their own players. Barry Zito is the only option they have that will communicate this.
Zito is no superstar, but he’s a pitcher who has proven he can handle the pressure of being a #1 starter. He’s durable, crafty, and perfectly suited for Safeco. He can be our #1, giving Felix the freedom to be the #2. When Felix is ready to be our #1, Zito will make a solid #2-#3 for the rest of his contract… he’ll still be an integral part of the puzzle. And as his skills decline (I bet it doesn’t happen too quickly), his present day contract value will decline somewhat as well.
IT’S NOT OUR MONEY. If the M’s are willing to overspend to get what we know they need… then I’m going to be glad if they do it, even it the contract is ridiculous. Our financial woes in years to come won’t come from Zito at $16m per… but from the combination of Washburn, Batista, and the like… marginal players making too much money. You can promote a Feierabend and ask him to be a Ramirez or a Batista, but you can’t ask him to be a Zito, a Buehrle, a Smoltz, a Millwood. Occasionally you’ll develop one of the latter, but our system isn’t at that point.
The simple fact of the matter is, purchasing Zito will be a good move for the M’s financially – they’ll have butts in seats they would be losing otherwise. It’s a good move on the field, because we have a GOOD pitcher on the mound who’s suited to Safeco… and even if he’s not a ‘true’ #1, he pushes every other pitcher down a notch and takes pressure from Felix. It’s a good move for the rest of the team, because they see the FO is willing to get what it needs (even if we know better that it’s only a desperation move they won’t repeat later).
Zito may be the catalyst this team needs to win the AL West. It’s pretty close right now, and while Zito isn’t Santana… he may be a difference maker in this division. How much is the division title and the first round of the playoffs worth, when contrasted with the division basement?
Another thought on this point…
Zito isn’t eating anyone else’s cookies. We’re talking about the FO spending this money on Zito, or no one. From a roster standpoint… if you’re playing Roto, and you have either $30 to spend on a $20 star, or $5 to spend on no-one… you’d spend the $30 on the star.
We’re at a point of futility where 2008 needs to take care of 2008. If we don’t take care of 2007, we’ll lose another huge percentage of fans, and payroll will go down not up.