Zito, quickly
I’m not going to do a big write-up on why signing Barry Zito is a bad idea because I don’t believe the Mariners are actually going to sign Barry Zito. The leaks about the M’s interest in Zito are coming from the Scott Boras camp, a source from whom public statements can only be described as questionable at best. The Mariners, as a general rule, won’t give six or seven year contracts to pitchers, and they don’t have the money in the budget for Zito. Yes, they could increase the budget, go against organizational philosophy, and outbid the Mets while hoping that Zito takes a few million more to pitch for a last place team rather than joining one of the main contenders in the National League, but let’s just call it a pretty big stretch.
Anyways, for those curious as to why I’d be against a Zito signing even if I thought it would happen, here’s the short explanation.
Barry Zito, the last three years, has given up about 10 to 15 runs less than an average starting pitcher over the course of 200 innings. He’s been something like a three win player compared to what the Mariners could cobble together as their fifth starter with some combination of Cha Baek, Jake Woods, Sean White, Justin Lehr, Ryan Feierabend, and assorted Triple-A fodder.
If there was a 100% chance that Zito would repeat his average performance over the last three years, with no decline in performance and no chance for injury, he still wouldn’t be worth $16 or $17 million per season. He’s just not an elite pitcher. He hasn’t been for several years.
Toss in the significant chance of decline and injury over the course of a long term deal, and giving Zito anything close to a 6 year, $100 million deal shouldn’t even be on the Mariners radar. Give superstar contracts to superstar players. Barry Zito isn’t one now, wasn’t one last year, and won’t be next year.
Tuesday’s baseball news and rumor
Ryan Klesko signs with the Giants. I’m going to bet he either gets in a fight with Bonds by June or they become best friends.
Werth signs with Philly.
The Yankees and Igawa have reportedly agreed on a deal.
Crasnick’s got an article on ESPN on potential free agents next year who might be signed to long-term extensions before then. Ichiro’s on there. But I noted this quote, on Carlos Guillen:
Guillen is Detroit’s clubhouse “glue guy,” and manager Jim Leyland regards him as a future managerial candidate and one of the smartest players he’s ever been around.
Remember when he was a bad clubhouse guy and needed to be run out of town at any cost? Ahhh, those were the days.
Vidro passes physical, trade official
From MLB.com. Now that the trade’s done, we should get some comment out of the front office about what they were thinking, which will be disappointing and inadequate.
Yup:
“Jose is a professional hitter,” Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We feel we can add him to our batting order anywhere from the second to the sixth spot and he will add production to our lineup. With the addition of Vidro and Jose Guillen (a free agent signed earlier this month) to our returning players, I think we are a much stronger offensive team.”
Snelling will be a better offensive player than Vidro next year. Pick your metric: OPS, VORP, EqA, whatever.
Word on the 2009 option:
Vidro, who waived a no-trade clause, had a 2009 vesting option added to his contract as part of the deal. If the option doesn’t become guaranteed, Vidro would receive a $500,000 payment.
Without knowing the details of the vesting option, it’s hard to say how bad that is.
I will not hang up my High Epopt hat
Long live the Cult of Doyle.
When I read the Snelling trade story, I felt like I’d been punched in the gut. My eyes watered, I was nauseous. I tried to put it aside and start writing about why it was a bad idea on a baseball level, and we’ve done that now. I’m ready to talk about the other side.
I know my fandom of Snelling’s sometimes the object of mockery and it sometimes baffles people (often the same people who get mad and accuse us of being too analytical and incapable of being fans, which is funny).
But if you asked for my baseball-only Snelling evaluation, it would be:
Amazing hitting eye, but still sometimes has bad at-bats and is likely to be one of the rare true streak hitters, a guy who can make consistent good contact when he’s going well and will struggle when he’s going badly. When he makes contact, he puts a charge into the ball. He may not ever hit 40 home runs, but there’s power in his swing. He can go to any field with the ball, he doesn’t have any platoon problems, and he consistently works pitchers for good pitches. His inconsistency means at least for now, I’d bat him down in the order, like #6 more than #2, but if regular playing time means he evens the at-bats out, bump him up. If he puts in a full season, he’ll hit ~.270/.360/.450 without trouble.
In the corner outfield positions, he’s a plus defender, with an arm that hasn’t attracted a lot of notice but is quite good. His knee problems have taken a lot of his speed, so his range is limited enough that he’s not a centerfielder, though there are cozy parks you could certainly get away with it. He’s got a long history of sometimes-catastrophic health problems, and there’s really no way to know if he’s past them or if his hell-bent style of play can be throttled back. Or if that would even matter. Which means depending on how much risk you’re willing to accept, you want to get him some regular time off, and you’ll probably also want to stock a decent backup in AAA.
I don’t know anyone who’s watched Snelling for the last seven years or even who’s followed the Mariners or prospectdom who would disagree with that. He’s potentially a very good hitter but until he puts a couple healthy seasons, the uncertainty about the health’s going to be there.
That’s enough to be outraged about the deal.
What’s the big deal, then?
Chris Snelling was a great reason to be a Mariner fan. He had a good eye on a team of free swingers, he played hard. He was a young, promising hitter in an organization led by declining veterans winding their careers down. He was weird, and cool, and he worked harder to get to the major leagues than almost anyone else. His interviews were funny and a little spacey, he answered stock questions in strange ways, and he’d go back to Australia and hike around the outback, eating beans, because the urge took him. He was likable in a way that few players are, because he was so open and genuine, even though it meant that a lot of his press went straight for the novelty angle.
You could really cheer for Snelling. And in his success and setbacks, there was a lot to cheer for. He would get healthy, tear it up, and then go down. His debut was followed almost immediately by a season-ending, career-threatening injury. His comebacks came with setbacks and, eventually, other career-threatening injuries. But he would not be denied.
As much as drive, character, work ethic, and the host of intangibles teams want from their players can’t be measured, they are often the difference between realizing the talent and potential we see and failure. Listening to coaches doesn’t give a player more natural talent. Eating well and conditioning often don’t really make a difference to a player’s health until they’re well into their twenties or thirties. A player doing physical rehab can sit around and play video games and eat, or they can work their ass off.
Snelling’s never done that. I’ve always had faith that if his absolute ceiling was 140 healthy games, 35 doubles and 20 home runs, that I would see that, and if it was higher, I’d see that too. He wasn’t going to be the guy who showed up hung over and bored to his tryout for a Japanese team his team was trying to sell him to. He was going to be what I love to see in guys like Jim Thome, who never gave up on an at-bat or a game.
The trade felt like a betrayal to me. Not just to me, but to Snelling. I know baseball’s a business, and the Mariners were under no obligation to find him a spot, much less to not trade him if they felt it would improve the team. That past sacrifice doesn’t bring with it obligation.
But it does. Snelling spent eight years in the M’s system after joining Everett. He came back from horrible injuries as fast as could be hoped, when no one would have blamed him for walking away, over and over again, sometimes just to put on a uniform and get some at-bats somewhere in the system before the season ended. He gave the organization more pain and blood than anyone in the team’s history.
Isn’t that worth giving him the clean shot at a job? Is the message to other players in the system that if you try your hardest, if you’re talented, hard-working, and dedicated that when you’re ready, we’ll find a way to block you out of a job and ship you off?
I understand the possible desire to get him a starting job if he couldn’t have one here, though I’m not sure that’s a sure thing in Washington. But in the same way teams sacrifice a little to make sure an organizational soldier like Mickey Lopez gets his cup of coffee and scratches out a hit, don’t they owe a player like Snelling the chance to make his name with the team he worked so hard for? Shouldn’t the obvious potential so long held back be realized for the organization that stood with him?
And moreover, to trade him for so little, so pointlessly, makes his struggles and our fandom trivial. Did he really fight back from all that to find that the team valued his talent so little?
It doesn’t matter, now, if Vidro’s physical reveals his hamstrings are a couple jogs to first base from snapping, or there’s nothing left of his knees — that slap’s been delivered.
The Nationals got a good player, in some ways a similar gamble to taking on Nick Johnson, which turned out well for them. And my favorite player isn’t on the M’s any more. I’ll watch Nationals games next year to see Snelling, I’ll follow his progress, but it made me happy to go to home games and see him wearing my team’s uniform, and I will almost certainly never enjoy that feeling again. Star or potential unrealized, Snelling’s future isn’t here any more.
We lost him. We lost him for nothing, for less than nothing. His dedication and our fandom have been repaid with indignity. But if this is how the organization valued him, well, may he succeed wildly elsewhere, making even my faith seem inadequate.
Good luck, Chris.
After the storm
I avoided the blog yesterday. I didn’t post, didn’t comment, and didn’t read. It wasn’t for lack of things to say, but I decided I just wanted to take 24 hours and pretend like the Mariners didn’t exist. I don’t think avoidance is one of the approved twelve steps, but sometimes, you just need a break. I collected my thoughts, let the emotions simmer, and now, hopefully, can give you a rational take on what the Vidro trade really means for the Mariners.
This trade doesn’t hurt the Mariners that badly next year. Most of the positive things Jeff said the other day are still true. This move didn’t make Felix’s arm fall off or send Ichiro to a planet far far away. This was a .500-ish club on Wednesday morning, and it’s a .500-ish club today. Even if the prayers of the saints go for naught and Jose Vidro passes his physical, it will still be a .500-ish club tomorrow.
The visceral reaction we all had to this trade isn’t because we believe it ruined the 2007 season or that we had dreams of Doyle winning the MVP award and carrying the team on his back. In reality, the team with Vidro isn’t much different than the team with Snelling and Fruto. We understand that the team is making moves it believes need to be made to contend, and that Bavasi and Hargrove would rather not lose their jobs because they staked their career to the continued health of Doyle.
The series of moves the Mariners have completed in the past 10 days aren’t the end of the world from a talent-on-field perspective. The team’s future hasn’t been sacrificed beyond repair, and the core of an eventual contender is still in place. But, in the past week and a half, we have been given conclusive evidence of one indisputable conclusion that cannot be avoided, cannot be waved away with talk of the volcanic market, and is a depressing fact to have to face as a fan. This management team is best described with one word:
Incompetent. Literally, they are legally unqualified, inadequate to or unsuitable for a particular purpose, lacking the qualities needed for effective action, and unable to function properly.
I’m not using the word as an attack on their intelligence out of an emotional reaction or as an insult to try to make myself feel better. I’m describing the baseball operations department as incompetent because the dictionary definition of the word fits the organization to a tee.
They are not ignorant, as they don’t lack information. They have access to better research, data, and reports than any of us could dream about. They just don’t understand how to apply the knowledge they have at their fingertips. They have unlimited resources and, with their appealing geographic location, they could easily obtain help from some of the best and brightest minds in the baseball world. Instead, Bill Bavasi, Dan Evans, and the staff of consultants continue to evaluate players with the same tools their mentors used 20 or 30 years ago.
It’s physically impossible to use any kind of analytical thinking and arrive at the conclusion that Jose Vidro, as a designated hitter, is worth $6 million a year. Even if you assign no value to Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto, you still have to completely misunderstand the amount of talent available to fill a DH position to decide that Jose Vidro is your best option.
This isn’t an isolated incidence. It’s Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago. It’s a three year deal for Scott Spiezio, non-tendering Mike Cameron, a four year deal for Jarrod Washburn, settling on Carl Everett as your 2006 DH, trying to pass Francisco Cruceta through waivers, trading Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez, and now, selecting Jose Vidro as the 2007-2008 DH and giving up actual talent for the right to overpay a below average player.
Incompetence – lacking the qualities needed for effective action. I like Bill Bavasi as a person (though after this post, I doubt the feeling will be mutual), but if he doesn’t like the label, take it up with Merriam Webster, because there’s not a better word in the English language to describe the abilities of those currently running the Seattle Mariners.
They all deserve to lose their jobs. Antonetti in ’08.
By popular demand
Chris Antonetti for GM bumper stickers.
Chris Antonetti for GM buttons.
Markup for us on these is $1. We gotta cover our monthly CafePress shop fees.
Day-after coverage survey
The M’s trade a young, good-hitting, frequently injured good defensive corner outfielder for a once good-hitting, now injury-riddled second baseman who, heading forward, is
– just as likely to be injured
– likely to be a worse hitter
– costs about $12m more through 08 and another ~$9m for 09
– already not a good defender at second and getting worse
If you think Vidro’s going to rebound to his old form because he’ll be able to concentrate on hitting and stay healthy DHing, well, you could do that with Snelling, get better production and save $21m over three years.
They then threw in Fruto, a 22-year old live-arm reliever with great minor league numbers, stuff, and a body that looks like he might have eaten Mateo or something.
What does the press say?
The PI wimps out and runs an AP story.
Geoff Baker at The Seattle Times managed to turn out an article that, unlike his web article that said “Another offensive upgrade for the Mariners is to be finalized later this week when Jose Vidro joins the team as its full-time designated hitter” makes a set of pretty nice points — it includes a discussion of Vidro’s poor health, and manages to point out he doesn’t compare well to AL DHs:
But even his best numbers don’t rival those of the AL’s best DH candidates. The only time he’s topped 20 homers, or slugged better than .500, came during that stellar 2000 campaign.
Vidro has also never had a 100-RBI season, though that was partly a result of batting second in the order through much of his career.
Nice. Much improved from last night, certainly. Though:
To land Vidro, the Mariners finally gave up on the injury-plagued Snelling, 25, an Australian who showed flashes of promise when healthy but has suffered from knee injuries the past five years.
They weren’t all knee injuries.
The MLB.com article is, a little shockingly, conspicously not positive outside the quotes, and even notes how bad his range got last year:
After missing more than a month because of a left hamstring injury, Vidro returned to the club on Aug. 18, and his range at second deteriorated. He had a tough time going to his left and right. It got to a point where then-manager Frank Robinson benched Vidro a few games to give Bernie Castro a shot. Vidro ended the season as a first baseman.
Speaking of mariners.mlb.com, you may wish to vote in this poll:
Not that it’ll do any good.
Jeff @ Lookout Landing had a reaction much like ours.
Vidro’s declined from his peak, and even if he’s able to remain steady for as long as he plays in Seattle, he’s a .270-.280 EqA who doesn’t play the field. That puts him in Jay Gibbons territory, and Jay Gibbons was one of the worst DH’s in the AL last season.
Heh. Jay Gibbons.
Bill Bavasi dealt a young, cheap, good hitter for an old, expensive, arguably worse one, tossing in a talented young arm and a vesting option for good measure. In no way, shape, or form could this ever be mistaken for a good idea. It just couldn’t. There’s no way.
Yup. In general, the Nationals blogs are dancing a jig, as well as our AL West opponents. I’m not saying that consensus is the truth, or that many blogs should be considered to constitute authority, but if all your enemies get together to dance on a grave and sing with joy, well, you might be dead.
Vidro comment of the day
Many sources:
“I’m really looking forward to the opportunity to go to the American League and play for a team that has a pretty good shot,” he said. “They have a legitimate lineup, and they’re going to sign some pitchers. It’s looking very good.”
It appears Jose Vidro isn’t aware that the Mariners have traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro.
New extra-fun Vidro trade comment thread
… because we now have many threads. Now there is only one.
So, to sum up:
Vidro for Snelling and Fruto.
Vidro thinks he’s going to DH.
BP on the trade
Two quick posts on their blog. Nate posts the 2007 PECOTAs:
EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA Age ‘07 Salary Jose Vidro .283 .352 .406 .266 32 $7.5M Chris Snelling .265 .356 .438 .283 25 $1.0M*
And says:
Younger, cheaper, and better. It’s hard to win a trade when you’re on the wrong side of each of those parameters.
Yup.