Playoff baseball for 10/11
Thank goodness Cards @ Mets is postponed, because otherwise there would be two playoff games on at the same time.
MLB’s scheduling is incomprehensible.
Detroit @ Oakland, Verlander v Loaiza.
M’s lose Cruceta
In one of those stupid-decisions-that-didn’t-have-to-be-made, the M’s have lost Francisco Cruceta to the Rangers on waivers.
We’ve talked about Cruceta quite a bit around here. I was a fan when they claimed him, and praised the organization for taking a flyer on him. He pitched well for Tacoma but was terrible in his ridiculously small sample in a September callup. The M’s were never huge fans, and with the extreme depth of potential bullpen arms, decided to remove him from the 40-man-roster, since he was out of options and was unlikely to make the club next spring.
That the M’s decided to waive Cruceta, when they have so much dead wood on the 40 man, and are willing to hand guaranteed multiyear deals to guys like Julio Mateo, is part of what is so frustrating about being a Mariner fan. There was no reason to even try and pass the PCL leader in strikeouts through waivers, and despite their reservations about his flaws, he’s worth keeping around.
The offseason gets off to a bad start, as once again, they focus on what a player can’t do, and not on what he can.
Playoff Baseball for 10/10
Uh, it’s the third inning. But knock yourself out. Tigers vs. A’s.
Daily Tidbits
Some interesting news today.
First off, Daisuke Matsuzaka will officially be posted this winter. Good to get that technicality out of the way.
Also, Joe Torre will return to manage the Yankees next year. If you believe the rumor mill, this means Alex Rodriguez will probably be traded. The Angels keep popping up as a possibility, which would suck, because I’d rather they not get another all-star. John Hickey pens a weird piece in the P-I this morning putting forth the possibility of trading Beltre for Rodriguez. I can’t see the Yankees being interested, I can’t see Rodriguez being interested, and I’m not totally sure the Mariners should be interested, honestly. One of the untold stories of the past year and a half has been A-Rod’s massive defensive decline; he’s now barely a passable major league third baseman, and any ideas of him playing shortstop again are probably out the window.
And finally, looking through the RSVP emails, it looks like we still have spots open for this Friday’s USSM get together. Forget Bob Dylan; he’s in town more often than I am, and he’s not going to feed your baseball fix. If you don’t have any plans Friday night, you really should come. You won’t regret it.
Birthdays of more than one kind
1. Happy birthday to USSM authors today. Congrats, Jeff!
2. I am as shocked as anyone to see my book’s on Amazon, available for pre-order. Check it out, I can build an Amazon link and everything:
I stared at the listing for a couple of minutes, jaw open, speechless.
Then I started to think:
– 256 pages? Really? We know that already? Because legal hasn’t even been through this thing yet and I’m willing to bet it sheds a fair chunk of text
– I guess we are going for the trade paperback, which is what I wanted because I’d much rather sell this thing at $11
– They’re using the original title I pitched? I never thought I’d get away with that (but then, Rob Neyer didn’t think they’d take “Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Lineups” seriously)
– April? I think it’s February
– I HAVE MY OWN ISBN
– But no Amazon Sales Rank or reviews, which is good because I’d probably only obsess over them
So yeah, it’s a skeleton listing, it doesn’t have any editorial or other information, and some of it’s (as far as I know) wrong, but — wow. I’m so happy.
I promise that I will happily autograph copies for any USSM reader who wants to lower the value of their book.
Brundage out
Dave Brundage, manager of the Rainiers, former manager of the Missions (where he earned all kinds of accolades), won’t be back next year. The M’s organizational shakeup continues, it seems.
Previous Brundage mentions on USSM here and here.
Monday Reminder of Friday Feed: RSVP!
We’ve still got slots left, which is a little shocking since we filled about half of them in the first couple of hours. But my bafflement is your gain, as there’s still time to get in on the event of the off-season.
Details, reposted:
Friday, October 13th, ~6pm-8pm+, Capitol Hill, Seattle. About 50 people total. No announced special guests, just me, Jeff, Dave, you and a good four dozen or so other Mariner fans. We’ll probably do some Q&A, I’ll have some Q&A for everyone… good times. We may podcast any Q&A we do – Jeff’s considering how we’d pull this off.
$22 includes all the pizza you can eat (many varieties, lots of it), salad, soda, and a tip. If you want to order beer, we’ll talk about that at the feed but it’s not included in that $22. The food’s going to be great.
Generally, spots for Feeds go really fast, so I encourage you, if you want to attend, to do so as soon as you can.
To RSVP:
If you have or can use Paypal
1. Email us and say “Put me down for 12 people, please” (your number may vary). If you’re a vegetarian or have other pizza-related requests, let us know so I can get the pizza mix optimal.
2. We say “word” or something similarly awkward.
3. Using the handy information we will send you when you submit your RSVP, use Paypal to send us $22*number of people you’re bringing.
4. I mark you down as having paid on my sheet, and we’re good.
Unless you skip #3, and then I give your spot to someone else.
If you can’t use Paypal for technical, moral, or other reasons, but still feel you’re a valued member of the USSM community like, say, super-reader Paul Covert, who we wish would come by and comment sometime
Drop us a line and we’ll see what we can do.
Interview with Doug Fister
Conor Glassey’s got an interview with Doug Fister, M’s 7th-round pick and Aquasox reliever, up on his site. Check it out.
Sunday playoffs, Oct 8th
Only one game, San Diego @ St. Louis, 5:05, Fox. Williams v Carpenter. Cards are up 2-1. Winner faces the Mets.
Meh. I mean, sure, the Padres are our hated natural interleague rivals and all, but meh.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, posting, and the M’s
Assume that he posts, for purposes of this discussion. I’m going to start re-posting “How Posting Works” almost entirely
(prelude: player asks their team to be posted, and team decides they’ll do so)
1. Japanese team notifies the Japanese Commissioner’s Office that they’ll let Ichiro be posted.
2. Japanese Commissioner notifies MLB
3. MLB notifies all teams that Ichiro is available
4. Teams have four days to submit a bid. The bid is how much they’ll pay the team not for the player but the chance to negotiate a contract with the player. The Mariners submit a bid of $12.5m.
5. The Japanese team, Orix, is told only of the highest bid amount. Here, it’s the Mariners at $12.5m.
6. The Japanese team has four days to accept or reject the winning bid
7. They make a decision:
If they accept, the winning team has 30 days to agree to a contract with the posted player
If they reject, no deal. They can’t then shop him to the second-highest bidding team or anything.In Ichiro’s case, Orix accepts the posting offer, and the Mariners begin discussing contract terms with Ichiro.
8. Then the player and the winning team negotiate, and one of two things happens:
If the winning team and player can come to an agreement, the player signs and reports to spring training next season, and the Japanese team gets the posting fee. The Mariners and Ichiro agreed, and he signed his original 2001 deal.If the winning team and player can’t come to an agreement, the player returns to the team that controls his rights, and the Japanese team does not get the posting fee. The player then waits for next year or to become a normal FA, when he can go where he wants
Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan had the M’s paying $25m to win the bidding war, and signing him to a 3y, $30m deal.
There are a couple of issues that come into play now:
– The Yankees may be gripped with post-season insanity and capable of doing anything
– Teams sometimes handle posting fees as if it’s not real money
The M’s for years made a strange-seeming argument that for tax reasons, posting fees and contracts for players who’d never been in affiliated baseball (Japanese free agents or posted players, Cuban refugees) didn’t count against payroll or player development budgets. They’ve changed their tune on this recently.
– And yet, it is real money
Ownership groups don’t look at a $30m expenditure and shrug because it’s a special expenditure
– Posting fees aren’t currently, so far as I can tell, counted in any way against the salary cap
This makes chasing Japanese players even more interesting for a team like the Yankees. From their view, instead of paying top dollar for a free-agent pitcher that counts against the cap, they pay about the same amount of total money and get a top pitcher who only counts a little against the cap.
– That could change with the new collective bargaining agreement
Domestic players must regard those posting fees with a shake of the head. The player doesn’t get anything of it, and the winning team’s leverage over the posted player reduces their salary, which hurts other players (in citing comperables during salary negotiations) and the union (less money in dues). They may also believe that the money would otherwise be spent on players, making them all richer. Teams may not mind, either, in the “stop us before we pay free agents too much” way they cry for brakes on the cost of labor.
If this does get into the new agreement and posting fees count against the cap, pro-rated or however, it’ll be a huge blow to the Yankees chances, since they’re already over the cap and are facing escalating taxes each year.
When Ichiro posted, teams tried to put together fairly rational bids, with the M’s willing to ensure they topped everyone.
If Matsuzaka posts, it’s going to get a little crazy. Say you think Matsuzaka is worth $12m/year, which is top-tier free agent pitcher money, and your best guess is that he’s willing to sign for $10m/year over 3y if you win the bid. If you’re an entirely rational team, your bid is $6m.
If Matsuzaka posts, I anticipate every team who needs a pitcher will bid something, even knowing they’ll lose. If you put in a low-ball bid and lose, no harm. If you luck out and win, woo-hoo! You get to see what he wants, maybe even low-ball him yourself, and if he goes back to his team, you’re not out a penny. Bidding a couple of million dollars is like a free lottery ticket.
Figure that there will be a whole bunch of teams that bid $5-$6m. It doesn’t even matter who they are. A serious bid to win has to be at least $10m. The problem then is that you’ll have at leaset two teams willing to spend much, much more than that:
– Mariners (Japanese connection, rich, desperate for pitching, willing to bid on posting players)
– Yankees (richer, possibly more desperate, also willing to bid)
They’re going to consider how much it’s worth to win, how much it’s worth to deny him to another team, and what other things they could put the money to.
$25m? $30m? We’ve heard those floated already, as some of the process plays out in the media. You’re already starting to see teams float numbers and watch for responses and leaks from other organizations. Every team that wants to win is going to play this game as well as it can: the Yankees have a massive press advantage and can control the story (“Yankees to bid $30m says team official”), while the M’s might be able to play that game in Japan (“Matsuzaka to demand 5y/$55m deal”).
While it’s worth paying some attention to if you’re interested in where he’ll end up, much of what comes out after the World Series up to the submission of bids is going to be disinformation and manipulation, as teams try to get each other to lower their bids, letting the winner get a bargain, or to raise their bids, needlessly tying their team’s resources up (if you can get the Yankees to bid $40m when the next-highest bid is $10m, that’s good, unless he rules).
And then there’s the winner’s curse.
The only thing we can know for certain is that if he posts, it’s going to get crazy.