Your guide to Everett alternatives, revisited
When the M’s were rumored to be interested in and then signed Everett, and I spent a fair amount of my time savaging the signing for baseball and non-baseball reasons, we floated a number of names as possible alternatives. How’d they do?
Do nothing – I suggested putting one of the random Tacoma-bound guys in, taking even Dobbs over Everett as the DH. Dobbs hit .313/.374/.444 in Tacoma, which even taking a huge translation bump would have been a lot better than Everett.
Other left-handed/switch-hitters available at the time who were mentioned in discussions:
Burnitz – signed a one-year, $6m deal with Pittsburgh. Hit .232/.289/.424 at age 37
Durazo – without being able to know anything for certain about his health, I said “That may make him a bargain, but it certainly makes him a risk.” Went through three organizations this year, and couldn’t play a base. And yet… in AAA, his total line was like .290/.385/.430. Even a semi-crippled Durazo would have been an upgrade.
Hatteberg – “no thanks” The Picking Machine signed a one-year, $750k deal with the Reds, and hit .290/.386/.443, a surprising performance reversing what looked like years of deciline, arguably his best hitting season ever. Heh. You never know.
Higginson – nope. Didn’t play.
Jones – Dave’s talked about this, but Jones did really well… but required a multi-year contract for more money
Lawton – hee hee.
Travis Lee – .224/.312/.364.
Tino Martinez – retired
Mueller – injured his knee, ending his season and possibly his career.
There a couple of lessons to be learned from the Carl Everett signing:
– Paying for things like grit or intensity that can’t be measured or reliably evaluated means you get ripped off a lot
– The cost of reliable veterans over taking a chance is high and doesn’t guarantee reliability
– Mike Hargrove is a horrible talent evaluator
Frequently overlooked, though, is that Bavasi’s shown, over and over, that he understands that contracts are sunk costs, and been willing to move to get past the team’s mistakes. Maybe not as aggressively as we’d always like, but we should acknowledge at least that there are many teams that, having hyped a guy like Everett up and spent that much money on him, would have run him out there all year long and let the option pick up, either out of fear of embarassment or inability to acknowledge they were wrong.
We can point to a lot of the M’s free agent signings as mistakes, but at least they’ve been able to confront them and move on. That’s valuable.
Game 155, Mariners at White Sox
RHP King Felix Hernandez vs. LHP Mark Buehrle, 10:25am on woooooosh! FOX. Ding.
King Felix makes his last start of the season, so let’s make it a good one, shall we? Meanwhile, the White Sox have fallen apart down the stretch and are all but eliminated from the playoff chase. Sadly, today’s lefty starter means no Doyle. Coupled with Bloomquist at SS… well, good luck today, Felix. Hey, Hargrove, isn’t Oswaldo Navarro on the club?
Dave’s quick note:
For the last time this year, Happy Felix Day.
King Felix has been at times frustrating and inconsistent, and while he may not have performed at a level we expected following his amazing debut last fall, today, he’s going to cap off one of the best seasons a 20-year-old pitcher has ever had. He stayed healthy, he improved as the year went on, and based on the things that a pitcher has significant control over, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the American League.
There’s not a pitcher alive I’d trade Felix for in a one-for-one swap. His future now is brighter than it was 12 months ago. For the last time in 2006, all hail the King, long live the King.
CF Ichiro!
3B Beltre
2B Lopez
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Perez
RF Morse
C Rivera
SS Bloomquist
#1 sign Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox have given up? Juan “.259 OBP” Uribe is hitting second.
Carlos Truinfel
I just got home, so I’m sure this has been mentioned in the comments somewhere already, but the Mariners announced today that they’ve signed Carlos Truinfel to a reported $1.3 million deal. Truinfel was one of the more hyped Dominican prospects and is represented by Scott Boras. While good information on 16-year-old kids is hard to come by, this is what we’re told.
He’s 6’2, about 180, and he’s a hitting shortstop. The Mariners didn’t sign him for his flash with the leather; this is one of those kids who can swing the bat from an early age. As with any tall 16-year-old who can hit, there are questions about his defense, but that’s normal, and I wouldn’t worry about it. The fact that the M’s took a shot on a kid who can swing the stick is a positive development, and something we didn’t see near enough of before Bill Bavasi and Bob Fontaine came aboard.
Truinfel was scouted personally by the Mariners top international scout, Bob Engle, who has a pretty solid track record with picking kids like this. He’s reportedly leaving the organization at season’s end, so this may be a pretty nice going away present.
So, basically, the M’s just added a high ceiling hitter to the farm system, which is almost never a bad thing. The success rate of big bonus Dominican hitters isn’t great, but it’s good to see the Mariners investing in their farm system and chasing after guys who can hit the ball above all else. While Truinfel is probably at least 4 years away from the major leagues, this is the kind of thing fans should get behind.
Welcome to the club, Carlos Truinfel.
Game 154, Mariners at White Sox
Gil Meche v Jose Contreras. 5:35.
Come on Meche, you can do it. That coveted high Elias rating is within reach! The team needs you to ensure we get a chance to recover a high draft pick from your impending loss.
Mariners field
CF-L Ichiro
3B-R Beltre
C-R Johjima
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-L Broussard
2B-R Lopez
RF-L Snelling
SS-R Willie “The Ignitor” Bloomquist
Betancourt gets the night off after that plunking. I realize I missed a month worth of lineups, but Lopez at #7? I don’t quite understand what’s been going on with the shuffling.
Looking through the rosters today, I was struck by what a strange career Jermaine Dye has had. He’s hitting .318/.385/.630 (!) this year, after a really nice 2005 campaign for Chicago, which in turn followed his disappointing time in Oakland, where he was one of the players Billy Beane really wanted to get and then was injured and, when not injured, not playing well, until his final year in 2004.
Wins contributed by season through his career, summed up using BP’s WARP3 because I happen to have that open:
Braves
96, at 22: 1.6
Royals
97: 1.4
98: 1.6
99, his breakout year at 25: 8.5
00, 7.2
Traded in mid 2001 to the A’s
01, at 27, total: 5.8
02: 3.1
03: -.2
04: 4.2
White Sox:
05: 5.3
06: 9.6 (so far)
By any standard, that’s a really strange career path.
Jake Woods, Litmus Test
Jake Woods is 25-years-old, left-handed, makes the league minimum, is a former semi-hyped prospect, and has now thrown 95 innings this season with an ERA of 3.88, which is 15 percent better than the average AL pitcher in 2006.
What the Mariners decide to do with Jake Woods this offseason will be an interesting test of whether their methods for evaluating pitchers have improved at all in the past year. Woods’ combination of age, handedness, salary, and ERA will make him a somewhat valuable player to a decent number of teams this offseason. The Mariners, however, couldn’t need a guy like Jake Woods any less.
He’s a replacement level pitcher in an organization that has so many replacement level pitchers, they don’t have room for them all. If the Mariners are willing to look past the ERA and see him for what he is – a guy with average stuff and bad command whose ERA is a complete fluke – they should admit that the best service he could provide for them going forward is to return a more suitable player for this team in trade.
Jake Woods is a litmus test. An organization that understands pitching would trade him this offseason. We’ll see if the Mariners are up to the challenge.
Ron Fairly quits
Announced today.
I’m not sure what to write about this, exactly. Growing up on Fairly, I didn’t care much, came to really, deeply dislike him and then, over time, forgave his shortcomings and found him, especially compared to the other color guys the M’s have, reasonably sharp, willing to criticize a bad play or bad move, and most of all, while often more talkative than I would have liked, he also knew when it was important to shutup, and he had, I’d say, a much better rhythm working with Dave than any of the others. I far prefered him to Valle/Henderson, who are mute-button annoying.
I’d love to see the team hire someone new and interesting, or try and mix in more shorter-term guys like they did with Marzano and others. Most color guys have a couple things they can talk about intelligently and really add something for the fans, but called on to fill the air three hours a day, game after game, they become repetitive and grating. If you can’t find one super-good one, why not borrow a concept from baseball teams and platoon? Find color guys with expertise on the team they’re playing, for instance. Pick some heel announcers. Be creative.
Still, I fear that his replacement, be it a full-time Hendu/Valle rotation or a new 3rd, will make us wish Fairly was back.
Game 153, Mariners at White Sox
I was on vacation there for… about a month. During that month, here’s what I understand happened:
-Ichiro, who once refused to play centerfield when the team needed him to, began to play centerfield because the team needed him to
-Doyle, who I’ve followed, cheered, and agonized over for years, became a fairly regular right fielder, and hit like I’ve always insisted he could
-Bloomquist, who sucks, somehow has stolen playing time from Doyle
-Rohn, who started the season as the backup manager, got fired
-So did the bench coach, who is nominally the strategy guy
-But Hargrove still did stupid things
-Moyer got traded
-Pineiro got demoted to the bullpen
-Baek is starting
-Woods is starting
-and so forth
What’s worse, it’s almost impossible to get any kind of internet access as a traveler in Europe, so I’d spend my purchased internet/hour on book work and then, right at the end, have a couple minutes to follow the team. So my first chance to really catch up on the team was yesterday night after I spent ~20h on planes or in security lines at airports. I felt at first that I’d fallen asleep and was having a brie-induced nightmare, but no, here I am, writing a game thread intro home, Woods v Vazquez.
5:05. FSNW. I have some fine American beer waiting, and I’m so excited to see this meaningless game.
USSM Lab work today
Hi all, I’m back!
At some point today I hope to get caught up on USSM maintenence.
DONE Site fixes
DONE A long-overdue rewrite of the comment guidelines, depending on how the pressing list goes.
POSTPONED culling our massive registered user list for long-inactive people, which may help with some new user/back end problems (I may get back to this, the SQL has proved a little more challenging than I thought it would).
If you notice anything wonky, or if you’d like to see something added to the to-do list, please let us know.
Derek
Game 152, Mariners at Rangers
Baek vs Tejeda, 5:05.
As ESPN’s preview will tell you, Baek has a 15 inning scoreless streak against Texas. Why we’re supposed to care, I’m not sure. Expect another beatdown of his junk in the bandbox known as Ameriquest Field.
And, just to piss us off, Willie Bloomquist is starting in right field tonight, and Doyle gets the night off. Against a right-handed pitcher.
Yes, Willie got 5 hits last night. Big whoop de freaking do. That brought his average all the way up to .255 for the year and he has 9 extra base hits in 235 at-bats. Chris Snelling has 10 extra base hits in 77 at-bats, and he’s hitting .313/.413/.552 against right-handed pitching.
Oh, and if you want to use the “he’s in a slump” argument, he’s hitting .294/.429/.529 in the last 7 days. So no.
Mike Hargrove, the Steve Kelley of managers. They both deserved to be stocking shelves for a living 10 years ago.
Steve Kelley, Awful Sportswriter
Against my better judgment, I’m going to link to a Steve Kelley article. He’s been so bad at his job for so long that I barely even knew he was still employed by the Times. While they’ve had Larry Stone doing yeoman’s work and covering the game in amazing detail, they’ve allowed this guy to continue butchering columns for no apparent reason.
Today, he tackles the Mariners. Sort of. We’ll do a Pocket-Lint style breakdown, since this column is worthy of that special kind of scorn.
Soon the propaganda will begin to flow from the Mariners’ clubhouse and front office as relentless as political ads.
The season will be spun as if the good ship Mariner is back on course. As if serious holes have been filled. As if significant progress has been made. As if the future is as bright as the center-field glare on a sunny Sunday at Safeco.
The M’s will be spinning like those contestants in the bat races at minor-league ballparks.
Classic Kelley writing, right here. One sentence paragraphs, no value added.
We’ll hear about all of the improvements they have made. The double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez is set for the rest of the decade. J.J. Putz accepted the challenge and has become the undisputed closer for 2007.
You’ll hear about improvements like — yippee — the fact they didn’t lose 90 games this season. That they have made progress the past three seasons, from 63 wins two seasons ago, to 69 last year, to — hold on to your M’s cap — more than 70 this season.
The front office will tell you the bullpen is one of the deepest in baseball. It will mention that Ichiro had another 200-plus-hit season. And Richie Sexson had another 100-plus-RBI year. And Raul Ibanez was as steady as a sextant.
Of course, all those things are true. The M’s have answered many of the questions they had last year. 12 months ago, we didn’t have a guy we could count on in any of the up-the-middle positions and the team lacked a dominant relief ace. This year, we’ve found out that we have many of the players a championship club needs. We don’t have enough, but we have more than we had a year ago.
The Mariners only are better in comparison to their recent past. They aren’t better in the standings, familiarly lodged in last place in the American League West, 4 ½ games behind third-place Texas.
So what if last year they finished 26 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Angels and are only 15games behind first-place Oakland this season.
That shouldn’t be anybody’s definition of true improvement.
Praising that as a positive step is like a golfer bragging about lowering his handicap by six strokes, then admitting it’s still 35.
Welcome to the world of Steve Kelly, where going from awful to average is not improvement. Apparently, you can’t improve until you reach “good” status, and anything short of good is all the same.
Their offense has scored the second-fewest runs in the American League. They spent the whole season without finding a No. 2 hitter behind Ichiro, who despite all of his hits, is not a good leadoff hitter. How could someone with his speed have only 33 extra-base hits in 648 at-bats?
I’d say Chris Snelling and his .286/.385/.506 line have made a solid case as a #2 hitter, wouldn’t you? Or do you not like 24-year-olds who have Edgar Martinez’s skillset? And then he evaluates Ichiro as “not a good leadoff hitter” by disparaging his lack of extra base hits? Really, that’s our criteria for a good leadoff hitter now? Who, exactly, would he consider a good leadoff hitter, Ryan Howard?
What front-office guy is listening to the fans?
Bill Bavasi, for one.
In 2001 and 2002 the Mariners drew more than 3.5 million fans. This year, they will draw about 2.3 million, some 400,000 fewer than last season. Shouldn’t that be a sign the fans are angry?
Who speaks for them?
We speak for ourselves, Steve. And one of the nifty things about this whole interweb thingy that all the kids are playing with now is that the fans actually have some legitimate avenues of communicating with the team. And if you don’t think the Mariners read this blog, you’re kidding yourselves. We don’t need anyone in the front office to speak for us. We’re speaking for us.
Who will ask, “Exactly what has general manager Bill Bavasi done to make the franchise better?”
He’s taken the burning ashes of an old, washed-up team that Pat Gillick left him and turned it into one of the most loaded organizations in baseball in under-25 talent.
The Mariners need to be bold this off-season. They need to sign two top-of-the-rotation starters, preferably Japan’s Daisuke Matsuzaka, the MVP of the World Baseball Classic, and San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt.
Everyone wants Matsuzaka. But here’s a cautionary tale for all those Jason Schmidt fans – you now have Steve Kelly on your side, and that’s never a winning proposition.
They need to find another power hitter like Carlos Lee, so that, once again, the Mariners’ offense isn’t at the bottom of the American League.
Carlos Lee: .300/.358/.535 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Raul Ibanez: .280/.347/.493 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a worse hitter get as much love heading into his free agent season. Carlos Lee isn’t the answer to any question the Mariners need to be asking.
Imagine a news conference next month announcing the return of Lou Piniella to manage the club. Or think how excited Seattle might get if a favorite son like Joey Cora were brought back to manage.
Right, because Lou Piniella did a great job winning in Tampa Bay. And Joey Cora now gets to manage the Mariners because, what, he cried in 1995? Really, that’s our criteria for choosing a guy to run the club?
As recently as 2002, the Mariners owned this town. The sound of Dave Niehaus’ voice wafted through open doors and screen windows every warm summer night. The M’s held this city in their webbing.
Where has that feeling gone? And, more important, where will this ownership group go to get that feeling back?
The team wins, that elusive feeling comes back. And if you can’t tell that the Mariners are in a better position to win now than they were a year ago, Steve, than there’s no reason why we should care about one more word you write.