Future Forty Update
Since we’re now in 2007, I have released the offseason update of the Future Forty, giving us a look at where the organization stands in terms of young talent that they can build around. The picture isn’t as bright as it was six months ago, as the subtractions of Chris Snelling, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Francisco Cruceta, and Emiliano Fruto have thinned out a significant portion of the talent pool that could have helped the Mariners in the near future.
As you can see from even a quick scan of the updated version, the strength of the system is now predominantly long term projects who are years from reaching Safeco Field. Seven players are categorized as “Projects – Projected Regulars, Several Years Away”, and of that group, only Ryan Feierabend is legally able to drink. It’s a talented group with quite a bit of potential, but they are so far from the majors, it’s nearly impossible to project when they’ll reach the big show. While the organization now has more guys who I rate as 7+ in the potential category than any time in recent memory, they also have an overwhelming amount of players who rank as a 3 or less in the present value category. Of the 40 guys listed, 28 of them – 70 percent – have a present value below 4, meaning they’re incapable of serving any useful role in the major leagues right now.
There is talent in the organization, but the ticket buyers at Safeco won’t see any of it for years. The thought of a rotation with guys like Felix, Ryan Feierabend, Brandon Morrow, Tony Butler, and Chris Tillman may be exciting to dream about, but these same unfilfilled fantasies have been lived out by Mariner fans for years. Remember when the Anderson-Meche-Pineiro-Heaverlo rotation was supposed to carry the M’s to a dynasty? Unfortunately, we’re returning to the days of putting the future of the franchise on the shoulders of 19-year-old pitchers.
When we look at the positives of the Bill Bavasi regime, we have to point to the amount of talent that has been brought into the system in the past year. In the past 12 months, the Future Forty has added new acquisitions such as Brandon Morrow, Carlos Triunfel, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, Alex Liddi, Greg Halman, and Mario Martinez. The M’s spent 2006 stocking up on high ceiling youngsters. Whoever is running the team in 2010 should be appreciative of their efforts on that front, at least.
As always, you can use this thread for any minor league questions or prospect conversation.
“Think Nick Punto or something”
I’d rather not.
There seem to be some older versions of the future forties on the wayback machine. Lets see if this works:
51: Thanks. I thought of that soon after posting my question and went to check it out. I was just about to post it, but you saved me the arduous link-making process. The geek in me wants to graph various players’ progressions over time. Some of the early Lopez comments are fun, as is seeing how quickly Betencourt moved up the ranks.
I’m really really not trying to be mean spirited about this. I think Dave’s work is great and I appreciate it a ton. Reading a few of those old comments are pretty funny though.
Like this one on Mark Lowe in Feb ’05 (Which at the time everyone who knew anything would probably agree with, and the rest of us said “Who is Mark Lowe?”)
Thanks for the hard work Dave, like I said I just found it funny.
Thanks Dave. A couple of follow-ups: Is the risk with Kahn that, like many hard-throwing relief prospects, he never improves his control enough to succeed in the majors, or is there something else going on there? Where would you have placed Fruto?
Speaking of salvage jobs, is there any hope for Jeff Flaig or is he a complete flameout?
I motion for a Back to the Future post where you look back at all the future 40’s and compare and contrast.
So it doesn’t look like the M’s have any kind of impact bat they could bring up in case of injury. Is there someone like that lurking that I don’t see?
Dave – It’s no secret that I like the guy and I probably asked this last time around, but how far out of the Future Forty is Doug Fister? His numbers at Fresno State weren’t amazing, but his pro debut was impressive – even if it was mostly in relief, to protect his arm (35 K & 11 BB over 40 IP with a 57.3 GB%). I know he doesn’t have the raw stuff that some of the pitchers on the list have, but he’s a big kid with a good head on his shoulders that I think could be a sleeper.
Flaig is example 1A in why you shouldn’t draft high school hitters coming off major injuries when they have no skills beyond hitting. He’s not a prospect.
Thanks Dave. A couple of follow-ups: Is the risk with Kahn that, like many hard-throwing relief prospects, he never improves his control enough to succeed in the majors, or is there something else going on there? Where would you have placed Fruto?
Kahn’s command is lousy, but part of that is because he’s got a lot of movement on his breaking ball. He needs to harness it before he becomes a major leaguer, but his mechanics make that tougher than it sounds.
Dave – It’s no secret that I like the guy and I probably asked this last time around, but how far out of the Future Forty is Doug Fister? His numbers at Fresno State weren’t amazing, but his pro debut was impressive – even if it was mostly in relief, to protect his arm (35 K & 11 BB over 40 IP with a 57.3 GB%). I know he doesn’t have the raw stuff that some of the pitchers on the list have, but he’s a big kid with a good head on his shoulders that I think could be a sleeper.
He didn’t get much consideration. If I was going to go with a tall ground ball guy, I’d go with Mackolio. Fister just doesn’t have the upside necessary to be a real prospect. His best case scenario is still as a middle reliever.
So it doesn’t look like the M’s have any kind of impact bat they could bring up in case of injury. Is there someone like that lurking that I don’t see?
Not really. If Bryan LaHair’s two week power spike is sustainable, then he’d qualify, but I don’t think it is.
Dave – I know you go to a lot of minor league games in NC, but how do you keep up with all of the Mariners’ prospects so closely? Is it mostly through talking to scouts, etc. or do you actually get to see video footage throughout the season?
Dave – I know you go to a lot of minor league games in NC, but how do you keep up with all of the Mariners’ prospects so closely? Is it mostly through talking to scouts, etc. or do you actually get to see video footage throughout the season?
A little of both. I have some friends who have shared some video footage of guys I haven’t seen in person, but that’s mostly for guys in the Cal League and the Northwest League. The guys who were in Wisconsin last year, I had to rely on conversations with scouts and friends who live in MWL cities.
I’m also planning a spring training trip this year, so I’ll see some guys there, too.
Dave, How about a USSM feed east in Jackson in combination with a Diamond Jaxx game, for further discussion of prospects, of course.
Dave, How about a USSM feed east in Jackson in combination with a Diamond Jaxx game, for further discussion of prospects, of course.
I’ve thought about making the trip to Jackson, but the roster would have to be more impressive than I’m projecting for me to get inspired. It’s a 9 hour one way trip from Winston-Salem, and right now, W. Tenn looks to be the least interesting team in the M’s system for ’07.
However, since they’re in the Southern League, they’ll be making the trip to Zebulon to play the Carolina Mudcats in August, so you can bet I’ll be at several of those games.
Yeah, I’ll certainly have to catch them when they come to play here in Knoxville.
Dave,
Anybody interesting going to be playing in Everett this year? It’s about 5 minutes from my house, but I don’t go to many games because I never really know who to keep an eye on.
I still catch a game or two just because baseball, a summer day, hot dog and a beer are always good. But it would be more fun if I had some players to really focus on..
If I may – It’s hard to say who’s headed to Everett at this point. It’s quite likely there will be players drafted this year who get assigned to Everett, especially high school kids, and that’s usually why I go out there. I love seeing the pro debut of guys and then catching them again at Tacoma a few years later, it makes me happy.
What Derek said. There’s no way to predict the Everett roster this far out, as its almost all guys who get drafted in June and roster filler types, plus an occassional international kid who gets pushed faster than you’d expect.
Projecting Tacoma’s roster in January is hard. Projecting Everett’s is impossible.
man, there are people born in the 90’s (trunfiel) that are on the future 40? i had already seen my best days on the baseball diamond by then!!
i’m getting damn old (27).
Ah, to be 27 again.
Anyhoo, what is your sense on Wladimir Balentien’s future with the M’s? I know that he’s kind of a grip-it-and-rip-it guy with some power but a low BA and massive Ks. Do you see him as likely trade bait or might he be up with the big club in 2008?
Always good work. Thanks.
Three ?s. 1. Now that we have the spelling correct, is it TREE-un-fel, or TRY-un-fel, also ‘un’ or ‘oon’? 2. If Rene Rivera is taken off the list, why isn’t he being shown as a graduate? He’s no star, but still. 3. What’s your take on Michael Saunders. One M’s MiL blog didn’t think he was worth mentioning when discussing 2007 rosters. I thought he had a good upside. Thanks.
Realistically, if you could do a future 40 for the other teams in the division, how well would we match up Vs them?
If you were to do some sort of comparison on the various Future Forty’s over the past years would it provide some insight into the general statement as to whether Bavasi (or really, any GM) has had a good or bad effect on the farm system during their tenure.
I mean, each future forty has forty players, but as you point out…right now we have a lot of guys who are in the lower levels of development and not much else. Is there some way to use this type of eval to gauge whether a GM is good at keeping a farm system well-stocked and evenly balanced throughout the various levels?
Forgive me for not swooning. I’m happy that the Fosters are going to have some players, but it’s 486 games until 2010, and I’d’ve preferred that Bavasi was able to demonstratively improve a 78-84 major league club, especially since he did significantly increase the payroll.
Now, if this was 1986, and the club was winning 67 games a year, I’d be quite satisfied thinking about the future.
And since I’m finding myself quite satisfied reading this thread (you guys do a great job), I suppose that means I’m prepared for three more years looking at five-hundred as the Holy Grail.
You have Clement’s ETA to the majors listed as 2007. At what point do you expect him to be called up: early in the season or only when rosters expand? In what capacity will he be used: DH (perhaps) or strictly a backup catcher?
the web archive has 5 or 6 past future 40’s linked up.
that should help for someone looking for past future forty’s