2007 PECOTAs are out
DMZ · January 16, 2007 at 12:34 pm · Filed Under General baseball, Mariners
PECOTA forecasts are out! Sort of. Not the cards, which are the coolest part and aren’t due for another month (on the PECOTA download page) or tomorrow (Nate’s post)
Short version: doesn’t like Ichiro, but never does, doesn’t like Lopez, Guillen, Betancourt, and Vidro’s projection is pretty ugly. But the rest of the infield, including Johjima, gets good reviews.
It’s subscriber-only, so I’m not going to just print the lines here, but it’s interesting stuff. Go check it out if you’re already handing BP money.
Nate Silver wrote in Unfiltered last night the cards would be available within 24 hours.
Gil Meche’s sample card is brutal.
Yeah, Meche’s 10th percentile forecast should be giving Dayton Moore nightmares. I thought Francoeur’s forecast was interesting, too–something like 4 wins difference between his 75th and 90th percentile projection.
All hail King Felix. He’s projected to be #4 in the league in ERA (assuming Francisco Liriano doesn’t go to see Oral Roberts about a miracle faith healing), but K’s are down. His comparables list now features Don Drysdale. Woo-hoo.
The rest of the rotation… yearrgh.
Chris Snelling is PECOTA’s fourth best Nats hitter by VORP and EqA. Which both says the M’s were idiots and the Nats are talent-poor.
Adam Jones is really interesting too. PECOTA, like ZIPS, seems to think he’s all potential from here.
And Tui, oh Tui is… wooowwww
You mean woowwww in a good way, right?
All potential as in, never developing into what we think he will or all potential as in it will be fulfilled?
Does “wooowwww” mean done? Man, look at that Upside number for him.
What’s surprising is how much PECOTA still loves Reed, even if his comparables scream fourth OF.
Median line for the overall projection is .261/.323/.407.
Jose Guillen is about equal to Vidro as a hitter, and he cost what, half as much? Yearrgh.
[ot! ot!]
The new “Beta” statistic is pretty cool:
Not for the faint of heart: check out Snelling’s beta compared to Vidro’s beta.
How could you hate him for helping us not have to hear about the Dobber?
And Tui, oh Tui is… wooowwww
PECOTA never ceases to amaze me in how much more it knows (or at least remembers) than I do. I had no idea there existed a Dennis Abreu, let alone that he might have something to do with Tui.
Doyle has a better weighted mean projection than Alexis Rios does.
Would you trade Vidro for Rios?
Bender –
Dobby the Bench Elf was an even more entertaining nickname than Princess Willie.
Dobbs didn’t even get a PECOTA projection, and the BP guys stuffed more players into this year’s book.
Dobbs was never going to get any playing time here anyway, so why not waive him?
Hey, when did Toronto acquire the Wonder Hamster?
I’m learning all sorts of things from these PECOTA tables. Note the top two pitchers by VORP. Like I couldn’t have predicted that.
Bloomquist and Rivera’s lines are brutal. It just wouldn’t be that hard to add a couple wins by finding adequate replacements for those two.
The M’s hitters are brutal. Tops on the team in VORP: Beltre at 81st in MLB overall. No one else in top 100.
Re: Betas – I think it’s odd that Ichiro always has a similarity index indicating historical unusualness regarding his comparables, but his beta is right near 1.
Holy Crap! Check out Tim Lincecum. (I know, I know, not enough data for a reliable PECOTA for him, but still, it’s a fun line to look at).
The lines for Ichiro, Vidro, and Guillen are lower than any of the other available forecasting systems (ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel). The lines for Ibanez and Johjima are more optimistic, though. Yuni and Lopez are around the low end of the other systems. PECOTA is pretty pessimistic about the pitchers not named Felix and JJ. I don’t know if the bullpen or the rotation is uglier.
Detroit’s extension of Bonderman’s contract looks pretty brilliant.
I’m actually a bit miffed…i’m a premium subscriber to BP but since I pay monthly those dirty rat dogs won’t let me access the Pecota projections yet….
has Pecota fell out of love with Dunn and does it think Griffey is done?
I had calmed down about this by about noon today, now I’m getting pissed again….
Still has love for Dunn; gives Griffey a pretty good 3/4 year.
Holy Crap! Check out Tim Lincecum. (I know, I know, not enough data for a reliable PECOTA for him, but still, it’s a fun line to look at).
That is a funny projection. What do you suppose the odds are that Brian Sabean has looked at the PECOTA projections?
Actually, Lincecum’s projection makes me wonder if data availability will ever make it possible for PECOTA to include college performance.
I’m actually a bit miffed…i’m a premium subscriber to BP but since I pay monthly those dirty rat dogs won’t let me access the Pecota projections yet….
I’m in the same boat. Just started a month ago and haven’t gone to an annual subscription because I’m not sure if I’ll really make use of it year-round. I was a bit disappointed, naturally, when I tried to access it and couldn’t. Guess we’ll have to wait for the cards, which it seems are more worthwhile anyway.
Anybody know when the new Baseball Prospectus drops?
I spent so many wasted hours with that thing last spring. Brilliant.
I placed 3rd in the Predictatron, So I’m readin’ fer free. (If only I hadn’t made St. Louis a Mortal Lock for 92 wins)…
Let’s see:
As mentioned:
-Vidro blows.
-Guillen blows.
-It’s a push for Beltre and Johjima
-Sexson walks a bit more
-Felix doesn’t qualify for the ERA title.
-Tui hits like Rey Ordonez.
Depressing.
I’ve been a subscriber for over a year…. it’s easier to do the monthly than to argue with my wife about the bolus dose… (in her defense, I bought over 50 baseball books last year and an Ms jersey for everyday of the week)…
But Tui is kicking arse at second for me in baseball mogul 2007(season 2010)……. 😛
Wouldn’t Tui hitting like Rey Ordonez be a huge improvement?
Okay I’m the USM virgin. Hate me. Ridicule me. But what is PECOTA? What does it stand for? Is it an acronym? Didn’t Biff Pecota used to play backup catcher for the Braves? 🙂
I finished second last. It’s a wonder they don’t charge me extra.
PECOTA:
Pitcher Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm
Nate has since changed that first word to “Player”, but since it was first designed for pitchers this is what the acronym really means.
But what is PECOTA?
Type PECOTA into Google. Even better, check Wikipedia. You don’t need us to figure out what it means.
PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. No idea on what (if anything) it’s an acronym for.
Pecota IS the shit….
Pecota ISNT destiny…
I thought it was a type of cheese.
I’ve been a subscriber for over a year…. it’s easier to do the monthly than to argue with my wife about the bolus dose… (in her defense, I bought over 50 baseball books last year and an Ms jersey for everyday of the week)…
Well that’s not very fair. If you’ve been around that long something should kick in on your account to “value” you as an annual subscriber. Heck, they’re getting more out of you that way.
But Tui is kicking arse at second for me in baseball mogul 2007(season 2010)…….
Is that software worth purchasing? I’ve been looking for a little baseball career mode fun recently.
It’s easy to jump right in and get going but sophisticated enough that you can get pretty much whatever you want out of it. It at least can give you some rough justice appreciation of what a GM has to deal with
Speaking of your book (trying to stay OT), how are sales?
Pecota was a utility infielder for the Royals, Mets and Braves who played for 9 seasons in the late ’80s to early ’90s.
Bill Pecota, not Biff. You’re mixing him up with Biff Pocoroba, another forgettable player (journeyman backup catcher with the Braves from 75 to 84).