Quick aside before the Vidro commnity projection
DMZ · February 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Chris Snelling projections
From Fangraphs
Bill James: .262/.342/.410 in 363 AB
CHONE: .248/.337/.385 in 322 AB
Marcel: .274/.357/.460 in 226 AB
ZiPS: .262/.338/408 in 309 AB
From BP: .270/.358/.453 in 438 AB
Comments
20 Responses to “Quick aside before the Vidro commnity projection”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
that’s actually not that good. except the BP, of course.
The Marcel’s is good too. 817 OPS.
I hope Doyle gets 300+ abs. Last I heard, he was going to be a 4th outfielder.
I would have projected the same for him assuming he’s their 4th OF…getting 200’ish at bats for the year. I just don’t see him getting 300+ at bats so his ice-cold streaks are going to hurt him.
As a quick aside to anyone in the Phoenix area, or coming down for Spring Training (cough, dmz, cough) Chris’s brother works at a bar in Scottsdale called the Salty Senorita on Scottsdale Road.
Given that I’m thinking something like 278 329 399 for Vidro this year, it would have been nice to keep Fruto.
Wwwwwelll, knowing how the systems work, it’s not at all surprising that they’re that low.
So, who will have more ABs before breaking down, Vidro or Snelling?
#8 that is a bet I want nothing to do with!
Anyone in the Willie Bloomquist fluff piece guess February 23rd, 2007?
LINK
The oddest part of Bloomquist staying while those around him departed is that he has never been a starter on the team, never been considered the next shortstop, the next center fielder, the next anything.
“What Willie has become is the best utility player in baseball,†Mariners president Chuck Armstrong said.
Wow. Id vote for most ‘forced down your throat’ utility player in baseball.
As for Vidro…im willing to bet Snelling goes down first. Not having a DH in the NL could cripple Snelling’s career.
Snelling: young, cheap, killer arm, injury risk; heart of a warrior; adored by the stathead diehards but not appreciated by casual observers; BP:.270/.358/.453
Guillen: old, expensive, killer arm (we hope after his surgery), injury risk; clubhouse cancer; stathead diehards could take him or leave him (he is better than a cardboard cutout or WFB) but casual fans see him as a huge upgrade and proof the FO is committed to winning; BP: .260/.310/.431
I’m so glad to be an Ms fan. It kind of looks like pandering to me is a top priority of the FO… Maybe I should be more casual about my fandom and I could appreciate the sentiment in my bliss…
“What Willie has become is the best utility player in baseball,†Mariners president Chuck Armstrong said.
This man ‘Chuck Armstrong’ seems to be quite confused. It’s a good thing he isn’t carried by the Mariners in any important capacity.
Corco said: that’s actually not that good
DMZ said : knowing how the systems work, it’s not at all surprising that they’re that low.
So far the community projection on Vidro is 273/338/388 (726 OPS), right in line with the lowest of the Snelling projections.
These projections show why losing Snelling is not a big deal. Or let alone a deal. He is a completely average, yet frail person. The only thing he does extrodinary is get injured.
If you really can’t see Snelling’s potential, that’s too bad, but that doesn’t make him without potential.
What these projections show is how inadequate most some of those projection systems are. Are they just working with recent data and applying an aging curve?
Essentially, yeah. They’re weighted averages with some aging curves applied. Actually… David Appelman’s got a good article on SI on how they’re calculated.
For me, the most difficult projection for Vidro is the number of at bats. Given the switch to DH, it should be more likely he can stay healthy but there is just no way to know. Does anyone know how or if the projection systems account for past injuries and position switches?
It depends. Read that link, first, for how those four work.
PECOTA does attempt to take injury history into account and adjust for position switches.
Snelling gets killed by the projection systems due to his stint at Tacoma last year, which was pretty ugly. I bet he out hits his projections.