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Fat Felix and Edwin Nunez
JMB · March 20, 2007 at 10:23 am · Filed Under Mariners
My buddy Seth chimes in with his thoughts on King Felix’s off-season conditioning, over in the PI.
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Cause and effect?
Correlation does not equal causation?
I read this morning that David Wells has been diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes.
we had to see this coming:
PEORIA, Ariz. — Seattle Mariners Executive Vice President & General Manager Bill Bavasi announced the following roster moves at the Mariners Major League spring camp on Tuesday:
Optioned to AAA Tacoma (2):
Right-Handed Pitcher (1): Cha Seung Baek
Left-Handed Pitcher (1): Ryan Feierabend
Reassigned to Minor League camp (1):
Right-Handed Pitcher (1): Renee Cortez
Yeah, just think how could Randy Johnson would have been all these years if only he’d choked down a few more deep-fried mars bars.
“How good Randy Johnson would have been”, not “how could”. What a tool…
Was Felix as fat in 2005 as he was in 2006? I don’t remember the “young Bartolo” comments back then.
I remember an announcer talking about Fernando when he first came up with the Dodgers. He said something to the effect of “The last thing this guy needs is a trainer trying to get him into shape.”
Yeah, but baseball was different then. There was still that lingering idea that players who worked out would become “musclebound” and inflexible afield. In fact, as late as 1987 I remember the same charge being tossed at burgeoning superstar Nelson Simmons when he came into camp all ripped and stuff. Maybe to an extent that was true back then; however, today I think peeps have a pretty good job of how to get a guy into shape without ruining him.
The musclebound and inflexibility talk started to cease when athletes discovered that stretching actually worked. If we were talking football, I’d agree with the weight-loss argument.
I’d buy the argument if someone was losing fat and muscle mass at a high rate. Say someone was 6′1″ and a drop from 230 down to 190 just might have an effect. However, if Felix is still 210-230 and is healthy, I can’t see it messing with him, as long as his mechanics are sound.
“Remember Fernando Valenzuela? Started out a pitcher, ended up a bus.” - one of my favorite movie lines from a less than stellar baseball movie.
Steve Finley. Pretty good argument for flexibility training.
Dear God I hope Felix isn’t the next David Wells. It’s kind of scary that they have the same career ERA+
One thing that people don’t always consider with training: those new muscles have to be intregated into your mechanics (hitting or pitching). It isn’t a reason not to improve strength(AND flexibility!), but it is a transition factor - especially in the offseason.
Probably everyone who reads blogs such as these has seen the study about longevity and pitching, viz. that overweightness is positively correlated with pitching durability. On Lookout Landing I believe, or at least quoted there.
Duly noted, the stipulation that since overweight people probably don’t get as many chances as those of normal weight, that the data are skewed.
However, I haven’t seen an ectomorph, endomorph, mesomorph argument. That is, most people have a certain type of body (tending toward skinniess, fatness, or muscularity)–most people blend these attributes. If one tends to be an endomorph/mesomorph, the possibility must exist that forcing one’s body away from its natural state will heighten the chance of injury.
That being said, I have no idea what Hernandez’s natural combination of endomorphy/mesomorphy might be.
Nelson Simmons’ career never did burgeon all that much. Maybe he was musclebound.
Boomer has had a pretty nice career.
Ya Wells…while not the #1 pitcher in the league we want King Felix to turn out to be is definately not a pitcher you “wouldn’t want to be”. If you could get 9 Wells type pitcher for 1 Pedro type I don’t think I’d be disappointed.
The “correlation does not equal causation” comment was the first thing I thought of when I read this article, followed quickly by thoughts of how different training these days is from the middle 1980s. One of the many reasons I love this blog (and its readership) is that I can count on coming here and finding several people of remarkably like-mind, many of whom will have thought of things before I do. Cool.
There is no reason to fear Felix getting in better shape, and developing good a work ethic and habits, Edwin Nunez notwithstanding. Those are GOOD things. Sorry, JMB, but this article was not indicative of why your buddy Seth is “the best sportswriter you’ve never heard of.” Interesting, and coolly historical (for those who don’t remember Edwin Nunez, I guess), but not particularly insightful.
so you think we should trade Felix for nine pitching prospects, I wonder who would give you that, perhaps Pittsburgh? They could probably make them all lefties too.
16, Pedro’s had a better career…I was hoping Felix would be somewhere in between…
What team has nine pitching prospects?
Well maybe they won’t all be prospects, ask 17, it was their idea
If you will be impressed to see Felix develop into David Wells, you’ll also be impressed to find Derek riding his bicycle without training wheels or Dave taking a photo that’s totally in focus.
I realize people will be disappointed if Felix turns out to be David Wells, but I think Wells is being underestimated here. 20 years in the majors, over 200 wins, durable, ERA better than league average. He’s nearly a borderline HOFer.
I will be disappointed if Felix ends up retiring as a borderline HOFer.
Those are some high expectations for a very young man. TINSTAAPP
JMB, those same criteria describe Jamie Moyer
Perhaps not surprisingly, Moyer and Wells are each other’s most similar pitcher.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/moyerja01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wellsda01.shtml
20 years from now, Felix Hernandez will be a minor league coach after a short mlb career. He is the next Piniero
29 I don’t know about that, Pineiro put a couple of good years as a starter, Felix has yet to prove he can do that.
Phil, you’re going to have to throw a little more of an argument out there to be taken seriously. Burden of proof is on the guy who claims the irrational.
#28: Wow, never saw THAT coming.
Wells and Moyer are a bit different in personality, though…
though both are serious about their pitching, talking pitching to the younger guys– and amazed at how long their careers have lasted
Well if Felix weight loss is a problem, as the Seattle PI asserts, he can always go on a crash program to regain it.
Felix can start a training regimen consisting of eating Hostess Twinkies and Bons Bons while watching soap operas in bed.
I can think of one HUGE difference between Jo-el and King Felix, but it’s probably not worth mentioning.
C’mon, mention it. At least hint.
I’m not sure you can even say “correlation” when all that’s been presented is two or three examples. Bartolo Colon stayed fat and still hurt himself.
I think pitching prospect are just dicey. Anyone remember Mike Campbell?
Campbell had a monster year in AAA once if I recall correctly in the late 80’s. Basically never did anything in his short stints in the majors and thus was regarded as a 1st round bust.
I love old school M’s talk, like him and Nunez. Makes me think of guys like Manny Castillo (who did pitch a few times in blow outs), Jamie Allen, Scott Bradley, Lenny Randle, Dave Edler, Roy Thomas and the like.
OK, fine.
Felix has always thrown this hard. Jo-el came out of nowhere.
Wink wink.
Don’t forget Roger Salkeld. Is that the only time the M’s have actually cashed in on a pitching prospect before he broke down?
Man did I want them to re-sign Belcher after ‘95.
Mike Campbell… you’re probably thinking of 1987, when he went 15-2 with a 2.66 ERA for AAA Calgary. But looking back, it’s easy to see that it wasn’t such a monster year. He walked 72 in 162.2 innings, nearly 4 per 9IP. And his strikeout rate of 7 per 9IP was good but nothing special. That’s probably true of a ton of guys who had “monster years,” before we all started paying attention to rate stats instead of W-L and ERA.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Mike-Campbell.shtml
Somewhere I still have his Topps 1987 “Rated Rookie” (or was it “Future Star”?) card.
Yeah, Jason, but it was Calgary. That had to be worth something . . .
Having now read the article (well, I did at like 3pm but anyway), I think we’re taking it a bit too seriously. Call me crazy!
Seth agrees.
Topps had Rated Rookie, Donruss had Future Star.
Rated Rookie, then.
JMB, I hate to disagree with you but I went to spring training in 1999 and remember a game where Ryan Anderson, Gil Meche and Joel all pitched and the Peoria stadium gun had Joel at 93-94. Of course that begs the question, can we trust the scoreboard gun? Ryan was hitting 97 and Gill 95 for what it’s worth..
Topps had Rated Rookie, Donruss had Future Star.
You have it backwards:
1987 Topps Rafael Palmeiro
1987 Donruss Rafael Palmeiro
Man, that 1988 Mike Campbell Rated Rookie is worth a whole 11¢!
You’re right. Completely bass ackwards.
#48 Which brings up that fact that they don’t post the radar readings at Peoria any more. At least I didn’t see a display.
ST of ‘99? Really? I first saw him at Tacoma in 2000, and I didn’t think he was throwing that hard. But who knows, that was a long time ago.
Not at all — they traded Mike Hampton while he was still a prospect. Too bad all they got for him was Eric Anthony.
Oooh, good one.
Yep, ST 1999. It was kind of a funny deal. The M’s had a day AND night game so to keep the regular starters on their rotation they pitched Joel 3 innings Ryan 3 and Gill 3. Kind of a show your prospects kind of thing. The funny thing is, in the night game Fassero got shellacked. Gave up 12 in 1 1/3 innings….
Was Salkeld the first of our 863 or so pitching prospects that were very highly regarded and ended up merely very injured?