What to do with Brandon Morrow
This has been a pretty boring spring, so far. Besides the Putz arm scare, there have been no injury problems of note, and besides Willie Bloomquist hitting like a man possessed, the performances have been pretty blase overall. Until last week, anyways.
That’s when Brandon Morrow showed up in Mesa with a 95 MPH fastball and a tight slider that made the heart of the Cubs order look stupid. I was highly impressed watching him, and I wasn’t alone, as Mike Hargrove used that performance as a launching point to begin publically lobbying for Morrow to make the team out of spring training. He’s continued to pitch well since that appearance, and Grover’s fondness for the kid isn’t getting any more private. After every outing, he makes it well known that he’d like to see the Mariners first round pick from last summer come north with the team as a reliever when camp ends.
While the Mariners are well known for rushing their kids through the system as quickly as possible, this certainly wasn’t the plan heading into March. Despite all the talk since the pick, the Mariners drafted Morrow as a starter, and he was ticketed for a rotation spot Double-A West Tennessee. The organization has always hoped that Morrow would develop into a starting pitcher, and he wasn’t drafted to be the closer of the future.
However, with Putz’s questionable availability for opening day and the organization short-sightedly creating a mediocre to bad bullpen behind him, Morrow suddenly looks like something of an answer to a legitimate problem on the 2007 squad. With guys like Mateo and Reitsma being handed the ball in the 7th and 8th innings, the Mariners lack a power arm who can be asked to get a strikeout in a key situation that isn’t a save possibility. Successful bullpens aren’t built around handing the ball to guys like Mateo and Reitsma in high leverage situations, so Hargrove has correctly identified the need for a legitimate quality arm to stick in front of J.J. Putz.
The question, then, becomes whether the Mariners should put the short term needs of the 2007 roster ahead of the long term needs of the franchise. Brandon Morrow, at some point in his career, needs to start some games in the minor leagues. His longest appearance in his professional career is three innings. He’s never had to go through the line-up a second time and make adjustments. He’s never had to pace himself to get through a professional game, knowing that there aren’t glaring weak spots in line-ups like there are in college. If you want Brandon Morrow to be a starter in the majors, then he has to be a starter in the minors, at some point, for at least a little while.
The question isn’t whether Morrow would be an effective major league reliever in 2007. It’s likely he would be. He’s got top shelf stuff, especially when he’s throwing max effort for 15-20 pitches, and relieving is the easiest job in baseball. The question is whether you’re willing to delay Brandon Morrow’s ascension to the rotation in order to patch a hole this year. For Mike Hargrove, whose job is on the line, it’s an easy answer. For Bill Bavasi, whose job description is to care for the franchise and not concentrate solely on winning games this year, it’s a tougher one. There is no obvious, easy answer here.
Personally, I’m torn. I want to see this team win, because I’m tired of finishing in last place, blogging about a team that has some upside but is forced to focus on the failures of its manager and the roster construction that left holes that could have easily been filled. I don’t want to see Ichiro leave. I don’t want to go through a summer of what-could-have-been as Doyle hits .320 for the Nationals while the Mariners struggle to find someone who can get on base with any kind of regularity. I want this team to win, and to win, they need a power right-handed setup guy to get to J.J. Putz. Brandon Morrow could legitimately be the answer to a problem that the team is going to have to address at some point.
But I also want the team to win in 2008, 2009, and 2010, and I think everyone will agree that those teams will be better if Brandon Morrow is throwing 100 pitches every five days than if he’s throwing 15 pitches every other day. The Mariners still have rotation holes to fill going forward, and most of the promising young arms in the system aren’t going to be ready for a few years. If the organization wants to fill those holes from within, Brandon Morrow is likely the best chance they’ll have.
While it’s pretty common for prospects to come up early as relievers and then move to the rotation, it isn’t common for those same pitchers to learn to how to pitch as professional starting pitchers in the major leagues. If Morrow is carried as a reliever this year, and then the team decides to shift him to the rotation for 2008, he’s going to have to learn on the job in front of 30,000 people. That’s not good player development. At some point, for his own best interest, Morrow needs to spend some period of weeks in the minors as a starting pitcher.
That either needs to happen this year or next year. If you carry him as a reliever this year and still intend to let him start at some point, you need to be prepared to have him begin 2008 in the minor leagues, regardless of how well he pitches out of the pen this year. And it’s nearly impossible to send a kid to the minors once he’s had success in the majors without creating all kinds of ill will with the player.
So, I can see both sides. I can see why Mike Hargrove wants Morrow on his staff, and I can see why Bill Bavasi should probably tell him that he can’t have him. Not yet, anyways. Morrow’s future as a starting pitcher is too valuable to this club to push back his timeframe on joining the rotation. Send the kid to West Tennessee and let him start for a month or two. If the team still needs a right handed power arm in June, give him a look.
If you carry him as a reliever on opening day, you may never have the chance to get him back to the minors. And asking him to learn how to be a starting pitcher at the major league level just isn’t fair to Brandon Morrow. The long term risk outweighs the short term rewards. Resist the temptation. It’s not worth it.
Dave, do you think the M’s will heed your advice?
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:40 amI say send Morrow down also. I was leaning that way before I read this post, but now I am more convinced of it. Especially when I read that his longest minor league outing so far has been 3 innings.
The team as it’s designed today is likely to win 80-82 games. I don’t see Morrow’s contribution in a Soriano role making enough of a difference to cause the M’s to be a legitimate playoff contender. It’s just not worth it.
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:49 amRisking the future for a mediocre present is how we ended up with a seemingly endless cycle of mediocrity. I’m all for letting Morrow come up to be a reliever, after he’s started 10 games in the minors. The Giants are in a very similar position with Lincecum, and they’re being smart about it.
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:50 amDave, would you start him in Tacoma then? When one of our four #4 pitches with ERA > 8 and another gets injured, we may need Morrow and Baek ready.
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 amagree 100%. Also, there’s the 40-man roster spot to consider.
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 amI think Papelbon is a great example of “once moved to closer, difficult time returning.” Even if physically Morrow could “learn” to start vs. ML pitching, his mentality could shift to a closers and he may never recover. The Sox are forced to deal with that now, and while they NEED a closer in the immediate, they now may forever lose the option of Papelbon in the rotation.
March 23rd, 2007 at 8:59 amCan’t they just sit Morrow down and tell him that they plan to make him a starter but there is a need now in the bullpen and no matter what happens he will have to go back to the minors at some point to learn how to be a starter? Is there no chance he would buy into a “deal” like that?
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:08 amDave, do you think the M’s will heed your advice?
Yea. If they carry Morrow and no relievers start the year on the DL, they’ll have to return Sean White to the Braves, and they want to keep him. If Putz starts the year on the DL, I think Morrow makes the club, but if he doesn’t, I think Morrow heads to the minors.
Dave, would you start him in Tacoma then? When one of our four #4 pitches with ERA > 8 and another gets injured, we may need Morrow and Baek ready.
I’d start him in West Tennessee. You want him stretched out in warmer weather than Tacoma will provide, and the PCL isn’t exactly a comfortable place to pitch on the road. If he blows away Southern League hitters in April, I’d move him up to Tacoma, but there’s no harm in starting him in Double-A.
I think Papelbon is a great example of “once moved to closer, difficult time returning.”
Yea. The organization pigeonholed Rafael Soriano and Mark Lowe as relievers after they experienced success there, and they could easily do the same to Morrow. There’s a clear bias within the Mariners that believes “power pitchers = relievers”. If Morrow pitches well out of the pen this year, odds are good he’ll spend his Mariner career as a reliever.
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:09 amYou can just as easily call him up from AA as you can from AAA, except, perhaps, that the AAA team is closer to the home stadium. If they do send him down, I wouldn’t interpret where they send him as a sign for how close to the majors he is. Whether he gets his innings in AA or AAA shouldn’t really matter much.
I personally don’t think that Morrow’s innings out of the ‘pen in April and May would make them any more likely to win than is worth the cost of pulling him out of the rotation in the minors.
I say give him the Jered Weaver treatment. Find some other decent reliever on the scrap heap to shore up the ‘pen…
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:15 amDave,
Your parallel with Rafael Soriano really hit home with me. I remember watching him come up and flamethrow for us and was looking forward to what is to come.
It seems interesting to me that this is a particular area that the M’s don’t learn from. Especially with the offseason we just had w/r/t starting pitcher salaries, you can’t help thinking that most GM’s are hoarding their SP prospects…
Sigh…
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:29 amThe notion of Brandon Norrow sitting out behind the left field fence at Safeco field being abused, confused and misused by Mike Hargrove all summer long is frightening.
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:37 amAs Bavasi explained it, the point of the aggressive promotion is to cause the players to fail and learn to cope with failure BEFORE they reach the majors. By bringing up Morrow this year, the team goes completely off-message on that point.
I can’t imagine Bavasi doing this. It would run entirely contrary to his own position on developing prospects.
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:53 amI heard a Bavasi interview a few days ago where he basically said that Morrow was going to make the team. I suspect it is already a done deal.
I do remember the Earl Weaver statement that the place for a rookie pitcher is in middle relief.
The question is whether Morrow will learn more in the minors as a starter than he would in the majors as a reliever.
March 23rd, 2007 at 9:55 amI’m firmly in the “send him to AA and leave him there” camp. If, in July or August, the M’s need a power arm in the pen to get them into the playoffs, then by all means bring him up.
I’ll gladly sacrifice a pretty small chance of real success in 2007 if it means making this team better for the next five to ten years.
That same argument applies to my views on the “trade Ichiro” debate.
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:11 amNick - yeah, ask Mark Lowe how that feels.
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:12 amI do remember the Earl Weaver statement that the place for a rookie pitcher is in middle relief.
Earl Weaver never took a kid with 15 innings of professional baseball and made him a rookie, though.
The question is whether Morrow will learn more in the minors as a starter than he would in the majors as a reliever.
It’s not a more/less thing. He’ll learn different things in the majors than he he will in the minors. He’ll learn what its like to face major league hitters, which is good, but he’ll also learn to go all out for 15-20 pitches, which isn’t good. He’ll learn how to pitch in stressful situations, which is good, but he won’t learn how to pace himself to get through six or seven innings.
If you want him to spend his career as a reliever, then it’s probably not the worst idea in the world to carry him right out of spring training. Relieving is pretty easy, and it doesn’t take a lot of practice. If you ever want him back in the rotation, though, at some point he has to start games. There are things you can’t learn about being a starter pitcher by working in relief.
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:24 amNick - yeah, ask Mark Lowe how that feels.
To be fair to Hargrove, Lowe’s injury had nothing to do with how he was used in Seattle. He had a chondral defect in his arm that existed before the Mariners ever called him up to the big show, and that lack of cartilege would have existed whether he was pitching in the majors or in Little League.
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:26 amI think he’s got to go to AA to start the year, unless Putz will miss more than the first 2-3 weeks. At that point, I’d still rather find another reliever for the short term than put Morrow in that slot, but I recornize how tantalizing it must be to think about filling that slot with Morrow. I’d just rather not risk him getting type-cast as a major league reliever, as Dave said, and never going down once he’s up. Start AA, get him to AAA by the warm weater months, and if he’s dominating, bring him up after he’s learned *something* about how to start. If you want to use him as a reliever *then,* OK. I think his future is as a starter, if we’re looking at the team’s longer term needs.
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:37 amIt would be a classic Mariners move to pigeonhole Morrow as a reliever. Even if he were to become an All-Star closer, the M’s will have spent a Top 5 pick on a relative commodity. Meanwhile, Andrew Miller and Lincecum continue to develop as TOR starters. But that’s okay, because Morrow could turn into the next Brian Fuentes, Ryan Dempster, or Joe Borowski!
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:43 amWe need some pitching equivalent of a Time/Value-of-money calculator:
Would you rather I gave you $100 now or $200 in two years’ time?
Would we rather see Morrow helping in the bullpen now or keying the rotation behind Felix in 2009?
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:55 amIf it is a done deal that he’ll make the club, what about the possibility of him pitching Winter Ball as a starter?
March 23rd, 2007 at 10:57 amDave’s reply beat me to it on the Earl Weaver comparison. Morrow’s a college boy. I guess it depends on how you feel about those college starts as a replacement for pro starts in the minors.
I agree that the best thing for Morrow and the M’s, long term, is to get him some starts in AA. I’m not sure how many; until they can’t live without him at the big club, I guess. But I’m also unconvinced by the annual charade of spring training will-he-or-won’t-he, where rosters spots are supposed made and broken over increasingly small samples, frequently in the M’s case down to single at-bats or batters faced. I think Morrow’s going to be up and down more than once, whichever side he starts on.
I come down on the side of Starting Pitching, I guess, and want Morrow to go wherever that’s going to happen. Is it wrong of me to want Morrow to go to AA to start, and then root for one of our other rather dubious big club starters to have something happen to him?
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:01 amWould you rather I gave you $100 now or $200 in two years’ time?
This analogy doesn’t work in baseball, since you can’t invest Morrow’s relief innings this year and watch them grow into an even more valuable substance in the future. They’re a consumable product, and once they’re gone, they’re gone.
The question would be more properly phrased “would you rather I spent $100 on you at the mall now or $200 at the mall in two years?”
Would we rather see Morrow helping in the bullpen now or keying the rotation behind Felix in 2009?
If Morrow’s as close to the majors as we’re assuming (given that we’re saying he could be an effective reliever right now), then you have to expect he’d be starting in the majors next year, and not in 2009.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:03 amIf it is a done deal that he’ll make the club, what about the possibility of him pitching Winter Ball as a starter?
If he spends the year pitching in the bullpen, and the club does want to convert him back to a starter, then it’s possible, but its far from ideal. You’d much rather have him making starts in a controlled environment with your staff around to make sure he’s being handled in the way you think is most effective.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:06 amTheoretically, a year where you make Morrow into a starter you could explain that as the 5th starter coming out of ST, he wouldn’t get consistent work with offdays, so you’re going to keep him down in AAA for a few weeks in April. That plus spring training would give you a very small buffer, and likely would be understood by a kid who’d never started in the majors before- they they were in AAA for a tuneup and to get work in.
But that being said, I tend to agree with Dave.
But to be fair…
But that’s okay, because Morrow could turn into the next Brian Fuentes, Ryan Dempster, or Joe Borowski!
… or JJ Putz, or Eric Gagne, or Mariano Rivera. An elite relief pitcher is nothing to sneeze at, even if it’s less valuable than a starter.
Dave, wasn’t the buzz about Morrow coming out that he was more likely to be a reliever than a starter at the major league level?
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:11 amI remember the Soriano transition to reliever a little differently, but my memory is selective, and my observence not as complete as others.
As a starter, it seemd he would pitch really well the first time through the order, and the second or third time through, he would get hit pretty hard. Was this that he need another pitch, simply needed to learn how to set-up batters, mixing up the pitch selection? Did he tire? Or were these few instances indicitave of someone simply needing more time to figure it out?
So yeah, in my mind, he was more successful as a reliever. I am comparing his 2002 numbers where he started 8 games, with his 2003 where he pitched more innings but started no games. (2004 and 2005 he battled his injuries)and last year he was great.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:16 amDave, wasn’t the buzz about Morrow coming out that he was more likely to be a reliever than a starter at the major league level?
He was more likely to end up in the pen than other draft prospects. Guys like Andrew Miller, Brad Lincoln, and Luke Hochevar had three pitches and better command. Morrow and Lincecum both relied primarily on two power pitches and had control problems. That will usually get you tagged as a potential reliever.
But every team in baseball would have drafted Morrow as a starter and given him a chance to work on those issues. It wasn’t a foregone conclusion that he was going to end up in the pen, like a scenario where you draft Troy Glaus as a shortstop knowing that he has no way of sticking there in the majors.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:17 amlike a scenario where you draft Troy Glaus as a shortstop knowing that he has no way of sticking there in the majors.
Ahh, but those 8 games at short last year will do wonders for my fantasy team this year.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:20 amI totally understand the view point of those who want Morrow to go the minors and start. Part of me does also. But a bigger part of me wants this team to win NOW and from what I’ve heard it sounds like Morrow might be able to really help this club NOW. I’d really like to see what he can do to help this team get off to a good start for once and the thought of Mateo and Reitsma pitching in all the critical situations really, really scares me.
The other side of this is that I think this kid could create a marketing buzz for the Mariners as well and this organization really needs something exciting to give to their fans.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:21 amSo yeah, in my mind, he (Soriano) was more successful as a reliever. I am comparing his 2002 numbers where he started 8 games, with his 2003 where he pitched more innings but started no games. (2004 and 2005 he battled his injuries)and last year he was great.
But here’s the thing - Almost every pitcher alive would be more successful as a reliever. It’s just an easier job. It’s like being asked to throw a tennis ball instead of a medicine ball. So the fact that Soriano had more success in relief wasn’t a good justification to leave him in relief, because that’d be true of Felix, Harden, Halladay, Webb, and Santana as well.
You have to compare relative value, not just raw performances. For some guys, relief really is the best spot for them. I think Jonathan Papelbon is one of these guys, and the Red Sox make the right decision. He’s a terrific reliever and would be a mediocre starting pitcher, thanks to his repertoire of pitches and the increased velocity he gets from going max effort for short appearances.
Soriano and Morrow, just like every other pitcher on earth, would post better numbers out of the pen than they would in the rotation. That doesn’t mean you leave them in the pen, though. You still have to have a starting rotation, and a league average starter is worth more than an above average reliever.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:22 amI totally understand the view point of those who want Morrow to go the minors and start. Part of me does also. But a bigger part of me wants this team to win NOW and from what I’ve heard it sounds like Morrow might be able to really help this club NOW.
Patience is a virtue. You’re going to want the team to win NOW next year too.
The other side of this is that I think this kid could create a marketing buzz for the Mariners as well and this organization really needs something exciting to give to their fans.
If the fans aren’t going to get excited about Felix, they’re not going to get excited about Brandon Morrow.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:23 amWhen’s the last time fans got excited about middle relief?
Off topic, but I just this minute got an email from Amazon saying ‘We are pleased to report that the following item will ship sooner than expected: Derek Zumsteg “The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball Pa” [Paperback]‘. I hope that’s not how it’s spelled on the cover.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:31 amThat’s spot on. My father-in-law, for instance, watches/listens to probably 75% of the M’s games year in and year out. I doubt that he even knows who Brandon Morrow is. Morrow is only really exciting to those who frequent blogs or seek out M’s knowledge in other ways.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:59 amTrue, but you don’t waste a Top 5 pick on one, esp. over other potential TOR starters with equal or more potential. It’s like drafting a DH in the Top 5 when 5-tool players of equal talent are on the board.
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:16 pmThe thing that is most irritating about this whole issue is that it ought not to have been an issue. Had the Mariners not traded away Soriano for Ramirez, Soriano would be filling the role (quite well, I might add) that the Mariners are now looking out of desperation to Morrow to fill. That trade looks worse with every passing day.
I want Morrow to start (not relieve) in AA and I curse the Mariners “brain trust” for making this an issue.
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:17 pmThe thing that is most irritating about this whole issue is that it ought not to have been an issue. Had the Mariners not traded away Soriano for Ramirez, Soriano would be filling the role (quite well, I might add) that the Mariners are now looking out of desperation to Morrow to fill. That trade looks worse with every passing day.
Yep. The Mariners gave Soriano away because they think his arm is going to fall off and they were annoyed with his unavailability at times last year, but then they replaced him with a guy whose arm has already fallen off and whose availability is overriden by the fact that he sucks.
Basically, the Mariners chose Ramirez/Reitsma over Baek/Soriano. I doubt there’s another team in baseball that would make the same choice.
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:23 pmMorrow as a reliever just isn’t worth it to me. Yes, I want the now. Morrow is a bright, shiny object to a 2 year-old. However, it isn’t in the best interest of the team or the fans.
If he succeeds, he runs several risks: being locked into a reliever’s role, overused because he’s the only good reliever (possibly (probably?) injured, staves off much-needed replacement of certain managerial positions.
If he fails, he loses confidence, is frustrated, then must readjust (very minor, but the mental stuff of being “not good enough for the Show can get to you) to minor league ball, the F.O. may reevaluate his worth and future as a starter and lock him into an effective reliever. Then there are the whole batting order issues that have been mentioned before relating to 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time through the batting order.
All this being said, the FO could be smart and have him relieve and move him into longer innings to eventually start. Myself, I don’t have enough confidence in the FO to handle this situation for what’s best.
This is a situation where what is best for the individual is what is better for the team long-term. He needs to be starting in the minors. I’d love to see AA and see him displace someone at Tacoma. I like the idea of players fighting their way into their position.
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:41 pmIs there any possibility that if we send him down to start, he’ll be called up into the rotation in 2007? Because frankly I expect at least one of Weaver, Ramirez and Batista to pull a Pineiro…
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:49 pmIs there any possibility that if we send him down to start, he’ll be called up into the rotation in 2007? Because frankly I expect at least one of Weaver, Ramirez and Batista to pull a Pineiro.
Doubtful. The depth chart for replacement starters right now is probably Baek-Woods-Feierabend, and the Mariners are going to have a long rope with all three of the guys you mentioned. It would take several months of struggles for the M’s to pull the plug on any of those guys in the rotation, and Morrow would have to be significantly outpitching all three of the guys ahead of him to take a rotation spot.
If he gets to the majors this year, it’s probably as a reliever.
March 23rd, 2007 at 12:54 pmDave - what do you think of letting Morrow start in the minors, but then calling him up after the break if the M’s are in the race for the West and using him in the pen for 2-3 months? He would get experience this year both starting and facing major league hitters in front of 30,000 fans, and next year he could get a few April starts in AAA to reacclimate to starting and be ready for the rotation, or take the Santana/Liriano path of middle relief to starter next year. Would this be wise? Is it a possibility?
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:19 pmDave - what do you think of letting Morrow start in the minors, but then calling him up after the break if the M’s are in the race for the West and using him in the pen for 2-3 months? He would get experience this year both starting and facing major league hitters in front of 30,000 fans, and next year he could get a few April starts in AAA to reacclimate to starting and be ready for the rotation, or take the Santana/Liriano path of middle relief to starter next year. Would this be wise? Is it a possibility?
This is pretty much exactly what I suggest in the second to last paragraph of the post.
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:22 pmAhh, sorry. Read the post this morning, missed/forgot that, then forgot to skim through again before asking my question.
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:35 pmDon’t you think Bavasi AND Hargrove both have the requisite motivation to put Brandon Morrow in the bullpen? Both of their jobs are tied to winning this season, and since Lincoln and ownership seem to have no long-term commitment to either, why would either of them have the best long-term interests of the franchise in mind?
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:46 pmBavasi’s a stand up guy, and he won’t sacrifice the organization to save his own job.
Hargrove’s role with the organization is much more short term - it’s not his job to care about the future. That’s what the player development staff is for.
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:49 pm#35….Couldn’t an argument be made that the M’s decision for this trade was their belief in the principle of #30 that average starters are more valuable than above-average relievers. I don’t see how you can be so adament about keeping Soriano, in relation to this belief.
My vote would be to let him start in the minors until about July, at that point they can make a decision whether or not to “go for it” this year and evaluate the trade deadline possibilities.
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:49 pmwell, I definitely agree with your assessment that morrow needs to start first and in the minors - not elsewhere. but i’m also concerned that the development of young pitchers in our system (blackley, nageotte, rhett johnson, et. al) don’t ever pan out…. it’s equally risky to send him to the minors to fail as it is to the majors and be a reliever. but there is higher upside. it just seems to me that the m’s should play for the future until this team tells us differently. of course, that’s of no benefit to hargrove or bavasi…
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:56 pm#35….Couldn’t an argument be made that the M’s decision for this trade was their belief in the principle of #30 that average starters are more valuable than above-average relievers. I don’t see how you can be so adament about keeping Soriano, in relation to this belief.
Horacio Ramirez isn’t anything close to an average starter, and Soriano is a well-above average reliever. Generally, trading relievers for starters is a good idea. But when the reliever is awesome and the starter sucks, its not.
well, I definitely agree with your assessment that morrow needs to start first and in the minors - not elsewhere. but i’m also concerned that the development of young pitchers in our system (blackley, nageotte, rhett johnson, et. al) don’t ever pan out.
These guys didn’t fail because they were in the minors. Blackley and Nageotte got hurt. It happens. Rett Johnson had personal issues and walked away from the game. None of that would have been any different had they been in the majors.
March 23rd, 2007 at 1:59 pmF-Rod, in order for that to make the Soriano trade good, Ramirez will have to prove to be an average starter, which while possible does not seem that likely. Also, maybe it’s my Soriano crush, but I have a hard time calling him merely above average. So just because we’re talking about a starter and a reliever doesn’t make your statement true.
Also, there is every reason to believe that Soriano would have made a better starter than Ramirez as well, unless he’s too fragile to handle it. So what the Mariners did was trade a risky talent for stability. On the face of it, that’s not such a bad idea, but the sad part of it is that Ramirez isn’t exactly injury-risk-free. If Dave’s interpretation of the remarks about the Reitsma signing are right, they ditched Soriano in no small part because they found him unreliable (which is different than risky). And that infuriates me.
It seems very likely to me that this team would have been better served by rolling the dice and giving Soriano a shot in the rotation, particularly when you consider that maybe the reliever role was just as hard on him as the starter role (pitching at max effort, having to prepare and then sit back down again multiple times, etc.). But even if they didn’t think that was realistic, they could and should have gotten more for him. But then maybe he’ll be injury plagued his whole career and the rest of baseball is thinking that’s pretty likely and wouldn’t have wanted to give up much for him…that’s always possible. Hard to say for sure, but I would tried him in the rotation again.
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:01 pmfair enough…. but your idea to start him in the minors and then take a look at him later - if necessary - is far too clever for mgmt to figure out. I bet their sense of urgency forces him into the pen to start the season. the downside of lincoln being up everybody’s a** I guess…. we shall see….
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:03 pmNot that I am rooting for it, but it just seems like Soriano’s arm is going to fall off very soon. I agree he was very above average in the past, it just doesn’t seem likely to me him maintaining that level. There are many, many guys who started as great relievers and then completely broke down…ala Brian Harvey, and Storm Davis. I see close to zero percent chance of Soriano becoming a starter with the condition of his arm. Maybe he has a couple more good years left, but I think we ditched pretty close to empty.
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:12 pm9.
Yup. High quality relievers are nice to have, but just like decent-hitting first basemen, it’s relatively easy to find relievers who are decent — and who don’t require the Mariners to sacrifice a potential future starter.
10.
Yup again. Good starting pitching is scarce and valuable, not to be frittered away.
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:20 pmNot that I am rooting for it, but it just seems like Soriano’s arm is going to fall off very soon. I agree he was very above average in the past, it just doesn’t seem likely to me him maintaining that level.
This is the only defense of that trade. Basically, the Mariners are banking on Soriano’s career essentially ending at some point in the next 12-18 months.
Of course, if you’re going to put the track record of the Mariners and Braves organizations against each other in terms of evaluating a pitchers future abilities, I’m going with Atlanta. If John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox, and the crew they have in Atlanta think he’s got something left, that means a lot more to me than if Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove don’t.
And yes, Grover’s displeasure with Soriano’s unavailability last year had a lot more to do with this trade than was reported.
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:30 pmGrrr. As if we need any MORE proof what an incompetent boob Hargrove is….(Um, hello….first year back from Tommy John surgery, and you’re angry that he’s not consistently available?????)
March 23rd, 2007 at 2:39 pm49: Uh, yeah, because no one has ever come back from Tommy John surgery to have an effective career, right?
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:09 pmA big point to consider is that Morrow’s bullpen goodness is unlikely to be a big difference-maker in the Mariners’ 2007 fortunes. They’ve got so many other bleeding holes on the roster, and are counting on 90th-percentile performances from so many players unlikely to deliver them, that I think, at best, Morrow is likely to be a solid performer in a third-place, 83-79 season.
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:17 pmEight pitches for three outs today. Ugh. I soooo wanted him to get lit up.
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:26 pm49 - Storm Davis didn’t move to the bullpen until his 10th MLB season, after which he’d piled up 200+ starts. Did you mean Mark Davis (quick check…nope, he started as a, er, starter)?
Bryan Harvey is a decent point, but he pitched several years before his arm was chewed up, and retired after his age 32 season; it wasn’t like he had one good year and was done (a la Mark Fidrych, or something).
I think it’s tough to devine a pattern in any of this: PITCHERS, not starters or reliever, often break down after X number of years/innings and become ineffective. I don’t think relieving is any more ‘dangerous’ for a pitcher’s long-term health than starting.
I’m actually with you in that I often wonder how much he has in the tank - I was worried that he never really regained ALL of his velocity after the TJ surgery, but it’s not like that prevented him from being effective. Still, I wondered if perhaps there weren’t other structural problems in his arm that the surgery didn’t correct that meant his old 98MPH, blowing past Nomar FB was down to a still impressive 94-with-deception. I guess we’ll see. I would say that it’s generally bad to make trades based on hunches and gut feelings, especially when the guy you’re getting in return has been injured so often. Having a gut feeling about how much a guy has left in the tank, combined with a gut feeling that Horacio’s gonna get everything worked out if he just got a change of scenery = baaad trade.
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:32 pmI like Dave’s take on this.
This team needs some luck to win much of anything anyway. That, as much as anything, seems like a good reason to me to hold off on bringing Morrow north to man the bullpen. Wait a couple of months and see where the team is at. If they’ve had some things go their way, and they look like they can make something of this season, then put Morrow in the bullpen for a while. If, on the other hand, things have gone poorly for the M’s, and they are 10-11 games back in June, then just let the kid keep starting games in the minors.
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:50 pmAny scenario that makes Mike Hargrove’s firing less likely is bad (evil, wicked bad) in my book, so there should be no way Morrow makes the club out of Spring…
March 23rd, 2007 at 4:18 pmJust to play devil’s advocate on this, but suppose he sticks with the big club and is in the bullpen all year. I would think he fills the Lowe role from last year — setup man to get a key strikeout in the 7th or 8th inning. Which means he won’t pitch very many innings.
Couldn’t he still go to winter ball in the fall and get some starts there? And wouldn’t that do as much for his career as a month or two in AA early in the season?
I’m not saying I think he should make the team — he shouldn’t, he’s pitched a total of 16 professional innings, and even in college he was really only effective and starting regularly in 2006; in 2004 and 2005 combined he started 10 games and pitched 54 innings total in two years.
But my objection isn’t that it will set his career back; it’s that even if he’s been terrific in a few spring training innings I don’t think he’s likely to be an effective pitcher yet, given how little he’s pitched.
March 23rd, 2007 at 5:13 pmSorry Dave, I missed your earlier post on winter ball.
March 23rd, 2007 at 5:32 pmJust a few thoughts on Soriano…
Dave pretty much has it correct - that he was traded based on the team’s belief that he was a huge injury risk and that they were annoyed with his unavailability at times. However, in response to the second point, think about it from Soriano’s point-of-view. Many pitchers tend to hide small injuries/soreness because they don’t want to be labeled as injury-prone. While Soriano’s eventual Tommy John surgery may have happened regardless, he sometimes wonders if it may have turned out differently had he taken it easier at the first notice of discomfort and let the team handle it accordingly. Unfortunately, he thought it was something that would just go away, that obviously didn’t.
So going into the 2006 season, Soriano wasn’t about to take any chances, coming off the surgery. After Hargrove’s overuse in the first half of the season (for a guy just coming off a pretty major surgery), eventually Soriano began to tire as would be expected. Rather than just pitch through it, he chose to basically self-monitor himself and let the team know on days he didn’t feel right. Obviously, this irked management quite a bit, as can be seen when you see some of the quotes regarding Reitsma and his “wanting to pitch every day” comments. Nonetheless, I’m not sure you can really blame Soriano for approaching it this way, especially considering if given the chance, Hargrove might have thrown him out there every day if he could have.
Lastly, I’ve been in Orlando watching Soriano pitch this Spring and he’s looked great consistently hitting 93-95 giving up just 1 run and 3 hits in 6 innings to go along with a 8/0 k/bb ratio.
March 23rd, 2007 at 7:27 pmI just had a thought: What’s up with Arthur Rhodes? Is he contributing? does he have a fork in his back?
March 23rd, 2007 at 7:30 pmSo this was another Carlos Guillen trade then. Someone had a hissy fit, so we gave away a talented player for next to nothing.
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:17 pmHey, he didn’t carry himself like a baseball player or acted like a baseball player should—he took care of himself after an injury.
naturally, this irks the hidebound management….
March 24th, 2007 at 12:24 amTrue, but you don’t waste a Top 5 pick on one, esp. over other potential TOR starters with equal or more potential. It’s like drafting a DH in the Top 5 when 5-tool players of equal talent are on the board.
The odds are prohibitively high against EVERY high draft pick having a great MLB career (and having a stretch where you’re a legitimate 1-2 is a great career). To put this another way: here’s the 1990 first round draft:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/1990_1_1.shtml
Look at the P’s on it- you have one outstanding one (Mussina) drafted 20th, one who had a decent career that ended at age 31 due to injury (Alex Fernandez), and a bunch of guys like Steve Karsay, Todd van Poppel and Lance Dickson.
Here’s the 1995 draft, as another example:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/1995_1_1.shtml
Better, but you still have your Jonathan Johnsons, Ariel Prietos and Mike Drumrights.
So a career as a very, very good reliever is nothing to sneer at, if that is what Morrow goes on to have. Very good relievers aren’t as good as very good starters, but they are sure a lot better than mediocre starters, or guys who wash out in minor league ball- and not all first round draft choices will pan out.
That being said… I still basically agree with Dave. You should try and get a better idea of what Morrow’s ceiling is as a starter in the minors before putting him into the bullpen.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:23 am