Jim Rice beware
Two things that I already believed were reinforced heavily during yesterdays game.
1. Felix Hernandez is awesome.
2. Jose Vidro is ridiculously slow.
I’m not sure what else to say about Felix, so let’s talk about Vidro for a second. During his first at bat, I made the following observation in the game thread after Vidro’s ground ball up the middle turned into a 4-3 putout.
I like how Ellis planted in the hole and got ready to rush an off balance throw, then noticed Vidro was 20 steps from the bag, slowed down, and tossed it across to still get him by 8 feet.
If you go back and watch the replay, it’s really remarkable just how long it took Vidro to get up the line on this play. Ellis took several steps into the hole, planted off his back foot, loaded up to make a hope-it-gets-there heave, and then stopped, because Vidro wasn’t anywhere close to the bag. So, instead, he takes a step forward and lobs the ball to first and it’s still not a close play. I’m pretty sure the scouts in the stands were using sand timers to clock Vidro’s home-to-first time.
During spring training, when all this Vidro-as-#3-hitter stuff started to sprout, I began to think that there was one issue in this whole line-up construction thing that was getting overlooked – Jose Vidro is probably the last person on the team you want hitting with a runner on first base. His combination of heavy groundball tendencies and glacier-like speed is a recipe for a double play.
In 2006, Vidro had a 46.4% Ground Ball percentage. From 2002-2006, his total was 48.6%. Basically, half of his balls in play are worm burners, making him a heavy groundball hitter. A huge majority of the guys who hit that many groundballs are no-power speedsters, and the GB% leaderboard matches up pretty well with the SB leaderboards, as both are populated with the likes of Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford, Dave Roberts, and Luis Castillo. Of course, all those guys could run a lap around the outfield before Vidro could make his way down the first base line, and most of them hit at the top of the batting order.
Among heavy groundball hitters, there are a couple who aren’t particularly fast and hit 3rd or 4th ine their respective line-ups. Miguel Tejada had a 51% ground ball rate last year, continuing his career trend of hitting the ball on the ground or over the wall. Joe Mauer had a 49.4% ground ball rate, Lyle Overbay had a 45.8% ground ball rate, and Victor Martinez had a 44% ground ball rate. These guys are all middle of the order hitters, being counted on to drive in runs and sustain rallies, while also being heavy groundball hitters and not running particularly well.
You know who ranked #1 in the the majors in grounding into double plays last year? Miguel Tejada. #2? Victor Martinez. Joe Mauer tied for the #6 spot, while Overbay checked in all the way down at a tie for 14th place. These guys are all varying degrees of good hitter, but their combination of hitting 3rd, having strong groundball tendencies, and being slow runners lead to a lot of double plays.
If Vidro hits 3rd all season against both RHP and LHP, and stays healthy, he should get approximately 150 opportunities to ground into a double play. Ibanez had 144 such opportunities last year, while guys like Mauer and Tejada were up in the 170 range. Ballparking 150 GIDP opportunities should put us within 10 chances or so.
So, let’s see if we can project how many double plays he’ll ground into this year, using his ball in play patterns.
First, let’s remove the plate appearances that have no chance of being a GIDP – walks, strikeouts, and home runs. I’m projecting about a 9% walk rate and a 10% strikeout rate, so we can remove 24 plate appearances right off the top. Given his likely power output, I’ll give him four home runs in double play chances, bringing our total chances down to 122.
That’s 122 balls in play with the double play in order for a guy who is going to put the ball on the ground half the time. Using a 47% groundball rate, that’s 57 ground balls in double play situations. 57!
The major league record for double plays grounded into is 36, set by Jim Rice in 1984. Teams would have to convert 63% of Vidro’s groundballs in double play situations to match that record. That sounds high, at least until you watch Vidro shimmy up the line.
I’m not saying he’s going to break the all-time GIDP record, but if you’re going to bet on a guy to lead the league, he’s the Barbaro of this race. It will be one of those things that doesn’t show up in his OBP or SLG, but will affect the team’s run production. When a guy is this slow and has strong groundball tendencies, he needs to hit the ball over the wall 30 times a year to have any business hitting in the middle of the order. Vidro, obviously, won’t come anywhere near that.
You might want to prepare yourself now, because Jose Vidro is likely to frustrate the hell out of you this year.
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To continue with the analogies:
Vidro’s lead in the GIDP race : Barbaro then :: Vidro’s footspeed : Barbaro now.
I thought about making a few more Barbaro jokes, but decided I had already had enough enemies.
Since the M’s are all about popular locals, why not sign Seattle’s Sanjaya Malakar? He’s young and appears to have a quick first step, if his epileptic dance moves on “American Idol” are any indication.
And the M’s would sell out every game. In every way.
It’s just one more way he’s like Edgar, Dave, can’t you see that?
Barbaro jokes are always warranted.
Is it safe to say that Vidro is slower than glue?
Which is yet another reason why I would like Vidro to bat, instead of third, FOR ANOTHER TEAM. Sigh.
You know, lots of GIDP usually indicates a good hitter, because bad hitters don’t get the chances; Jim Rice was awesome, and the M’s all-time GIDP stud was Edgar, who could hit a little too. And the all-time leaderboard goes Ripken – Aaron – Yastrzemski – Winfield – Murray, which is a nice list to be on. Somehow I don’t think Vidro’s going to join them.
Is he slower than John Olerud?
That would be a great three-way along-the-outfield between-inning outfield race promotion:
Edgar, favoring his hamstring
Olerud
Vidro
Except I realize it wouldn’t get done in time for the next inning to start.
So, Dave, is there any way to translate Vidro’s projected-double play rate into minus runs, or lost wins?
Can we include Carl Everett in this race too?
Fortunately the Mariners have a skipper who will see Vidro’s groundball tendency and recognize this weakness and have this issue addressed by say…September!
I hope I can stave off the flashbacks of Edgar on first, and having Olerud ground into a double-play over and over again. With them, at least we had good chances that either Edgar or Olerud would hit a double. That was the only thing that saved them.
And next year. And possibly 2009, when Jose Vidro’s knees will be 57 years old.
Heh — the description of this play reminds me of another one during yesterday’s game that had me snickering when I watched it. In the top of the 7th with one on, Piazza hit a ball to third that got flipped to Lopez for the force at second; Lopez stopped there presumably because he didn’t think he was going to have a play and apparently didn’t realize it was Piazza chugging up the line. You can see it at about 2:17:00 of the MLB.com broadcast; Lopez pauses for about a second, belatedly tosses to first when he realizes Piazza hasn’t reached yet, and still misses the out by maybe a half-step.
Not that it will make me feel better, but I think I’ll be able to transfer a good amount of my frustration to Grover and Bavasi, the latter for trading Doyle for Vidro and the former for making out the lineup card with Vidro batting third.
Lopez pauses for about a second, belatedly tosses to first when he realizes Piazza hasn’t reached yet, and still misses the out by maybe a half-step.
Yea, this was a similar “holy crap he’s slow” moment, though on the replay, you’ll see that Lopez just had problems getting the ball out of his glove – he was looking to turn the double play the whole time, but he couldn’t make the transfer fast enough.
But yea, Vidro and Piazza are sloths.
Let’s hope Vidro is Barbaro from the Preakness. I don’t mean I want Vidro to break his leg, just not “win” the race for most GIDP in a season.
I think we should move him to the leadoff spot. Get him out of the way early.
do it before the game, and work in donning the jerseys & gloves they use in the Kids Double Steal contest ….
Or they could race those kids…
Jose Vidro gets the Mo Vaugh treatment; the only way to time him is with a calendar.
I put the over-under on Vidro getting thrown out at first by the right fielder at 3.
I like the Vidro, Edgar, Olerud race idea. Add the Moose and have them race the Milwaukee sausages. Now that’s entertainment.
21. $20 says that Mayonnaise… er, Ole… has this in the bag.
My brother-in-law used to call Dan Wilson “double-play Dan,” (see Derek, the penchant for nicknames runs in my married into family, too) and after Danny retired he was sort of like a lost puppy without his guy to pick on.
Well, it looks like Vidro will provide that fix he’s been looking for. But as for nicknames…I don’t know… Slow-way-Jose, perhaps? Viscous Vidro? Dominican Cane Syrup? Help me out, guys…
Vidro-so-slow……
What, we’re just Livin’ La Vidro Loca.
Or Slow-ca, as the case may be…
I had a different alliterative nickname for Dan- “Warning Track” Wilson.
Where is the right spot in the order for Vidro (if he is going to play every day..ugh)? And who is the #3? Ibanez? Personally, I would like to see Beltre hit 3rd.
Sorry, I made a reference in post #23 to Dominican Cane Syrup, which is inaccurate. Vidro is from Puerto Rico, not the Dominican Republic. However, one of the chief exports of Puerto Rico is, as one might expect, molasses.
Good times…slow times.
#26, nice!
We have an affectionate term in baseball known as the “Mendoza line”…maybe we need to start a new one:
The Vidro gear: He really put it in the Vidro gear rounding second.
The Vidro speed barrier: He barely broke the Vidro speed-barrier down the first base line on that ground out.
Others?
Vidro as an antonym of Turbo…
Oh Hey He’s Slow = Jose Vidro
M’s who always had to run uphill to get to firstbase:
Wilson
Olerud
Buhner
But after watching Vidro, I’d have to say he is even slower than Alvin Davis.
And Alvin has been retired for quite awhile.
[rimshot]
The Jays commentators had something like that last year: Molina-speed.
#26 Dan Wilson hit three home runs in one game on my son’s third birthday. We saw him the next fall at Mariner’s get together and told him of this stat and reminded him that our son was turning four this year and expected him to hit four home runs on his birthday.
While he just smiled a couple of the other players standing next to him about died laughing.
It was almost like Kramer promising Paul O’Neill home runs to the sick child in the hospital.
I say we just call him Turbo. I like that.
Who’s Ozone then?
It’s too bad that BoCro’s inability to catch the baseball deprived us of the chance to see Vidro move one step closer to history, though I doubt Vidro ends up with enough plate appearances this season to break the record.
And as to the three-way race, I’m a firm believer that Olerud was the slowest Mariner of all-time, even slower than Edgar doing that weird hobble-run he used to do to favor his hamstring. Also, I loved the term ‘Molina-speed’; Bengie Molina has to be the slowest player I’ve ever seen.
Harkening back to C-Rex… how about Vidro-saurus? He not only believes in dinosaurs, he is one.
OT…[deleted, off-topic]
Minor nitpick:
(.09 + .10) * 150 = 28.5, not 24. So he should actually have 117 or 118 balls in play in double play chances. Doesn’t really change the conclusion though.
Using my copy of The Book (1999-2002 data), you get:
GIDP, runner on 1st, 0 out: -.836 runs
GIDP, runner on 1st, 1 out: -.573 runs
GIDP, runners on 1st & 2nd, 0 out: -1.456 runs
GIDP, runners on 1st & 2nd, 1 out: -.971 runs
GIDP, runners on 1st & 3rd, 0 out: -.787 runs if runner scores, -1.517 runs if runner stays on 3rd
GIDP, runners on 1st & 3rd, 1 out: -1.243 runs
GIDP, bases loaded, 0 out: -1.030 runs if runner scores & runner advances to 3rd (outs at 2nd & 1st), -1.783 runs if outs are at home and 1st, -2.073 runs if outs are at 3rd and 1st
GIDP, bases loaded, 1 out: -1.650 runs
Finding the frequencies of these events is something I’m too lazy to do, but if Vidro breaks Jim Rice’s record, at minimum, his 37 GIDP will cost the team 21.2 runs ~ 2 wins.
Vidro will speed up. Maybe he’s just a slow starter.
Maybe Beltre will kick some tail like the end of last year when he righted the ship. Then Beltre can swap in the order with Vidro or if we want to get creative(not that I think Hargrove can be creative) either Lopez or Johjima can move up to the 2 hole. Vidro can be dropped to the bottom third of the order where he will not make everyone so perturbed at him.
But you have to assume that even a fleet-footed batter will ground into some double plays, so if the average is say, 15, then only 22 of the 37 GIDPs would be due to Vidro’s lack of speed. Rounding it out, call it maybe a 1 win cost.
Very true. There’s no adjustment for VORSA (Value over replacement slowass).
You didn’t include the variable of fielding pct of AL opponents and more specifically AL West opponents. How many of these 56 opportunities will be booted?
#26:
I think the Jose’s (Guillen and Vidro) should switch #3 and #6.
Guillen should definately hit #3 against the Angels.
I’d put Beltre at 3, Johjima at 2, and Vidro at 7. But that’s just me.
If he hits them all to Bobby Crosby, well, the universe may just implode. Maybe it will finally spawn the invention of the Improbability Drive… if we see a whale fall onto Safeco Field from 30,000 ft we’ll know it happened.
Oh no, not again.
I’m pretty sure Edgar could outrun Vidro with just one hamstring. Could you imagine if Vidro was still playing 2B? Hopefully we never see that.
You know, the other new Jose uses a particular at-bat song, which made me think “In-a-Gadda-da-Vidro”.
Shame it’s too long to be a nickname, though.
42. Why, Corco, will MLB eventually allow him to ‘run’ the bases with a Segway?
Just taking a look at their b-r.com pages:
Vidro gets a GIDP 10% of the time there’s a guy on 1B (including 2 outs), and Ichiro is 4-5%. (The average is around 7 or 8%, and Jim Rice is almost 11%. Rice in 1984 was at 12.7%, with 291 guys on 1B).
The typical player has a guy on 1B almost one-third of his PAs. So, give him 600 PA, he has a guy on 1B 200 times, of which 20 will be GIDP. If Vidro is even more predisposed, maybe he’ll get it up to 13-15%, and he’ll be chasing 30.
I prefer Dave’s more complete analysis.
The win cost of a GIDP is around an extra 0.04-0.05 wins per GIDP above average. So, if Vidro hits 10 more GIDP than average, we’re talking about 0.5 wins. In short, Vidro+Ichiro = average. You’ve completely negated the speed effect of Ichiro by having Vidro.