Future Forty Updated
With the M’s taking a sabbatical for a week, we can continue to focus on the minor leagues, where actual games are being played. So, to kick off the minor league season, we resume the monthly updates of the Future Forty.
Since I expect this to be the main discussion point, let’s get this out of the way early – yes, I have Carlos Triunfel rated as an Elite Prospect despite one professional baseball game. Statistical analysts will laugh at a ranking that places Triunfel in a tier ahead of Adam Jones, but I’m okay with that. Triunfel has the talent to justify the ranking. With all due respect to Adam Jones, Triunfel is the best prospect in the organization. His bat is special in a way that Jones’ isn’t, and while he obviously has no experience in professional baseball, there’s a balance that needs to be struck between performance and potential. Triunfel’s potential is so high that the balance point for him is significantly further towards the elite end of the scale than it would be with lesser talents.
Yes, this is an aggressive ranking, but it’s one I’m going to stand behind. Jones is a very nice prospect, but Carlos Triunfel is the one guy in the organization who could walk away with an MVP award or two. He’s got that much physical ability, and the scouts who watch him play can’t stop talking about how good he can be. Carlos Triunfel, folks – he’s really good.
Also, if you want to know just how uninteresting the High Desert roster is, consider that they have exactly one member of the Future Forty on their team, and it’s a relief pitcher who probably will be in Double-A before too long. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is the only prospect of consequence the Mariners sent to the Cal League, and for good reason – High Desert’s ballpark is a joke, and the games played there barely resemble baseball. The scores from their opening weekend games with Inland Empire: 9-7, 18-11, 11-6, and 15-11. Four games played, 88 runs scored. Only two more years until the M’s can get away from that ridiculous experience.
Don’t look now, but Matt Tuiasasopo is hitting the baseball. After one of the most miserable seasons in prospect history, Tui is repeating Double-A by spending the summer in West Tennessee and looks to be trying to put 2006 behind him as quickly as possible. In the first four games of the year, he’s 6 for 13 with 3 doubles, giving him a nifty .462/.533/.692 line. Compare to last season’s Double-A experience, where he had five extra base hits in 62 games. Tui has battled two huge weaknesses at the plate so far; a total lack of power and poor pitch recognition. If he really is learning how to drive the ball, that’s going to be a legitimate step towards fixing the issue that nearly derailed his career last year. It’s just four games, but it’s the best four game stretch of Matt Tuiasasopo’s baseball career. So that’s something.
I’ve got Brandon Morrow’s current rating as a 4. Other players I’ve assigned a 4 rating too include Jeff Clement, Ryan Feierabend, Bryan LaHair, Jon Huber, Yung-Chi Chen, and Jake Woods. They’re all in Tacoma. I’m just saying.
I left Michael Garciaparra on the Future Forty even though he was designated for assignment last week, because I expect him to clear waivers and remain in the organization. The upside just isn’t very high with Little G, and I don’t see another team using a 40 man roster spot on him.
And finally, as an overview for what kind of shape the organization is in, I’ll continue to point out that Wisconsin is probably the most talented team in the minor leagues, as they have 10 members of the Future Forty on their roster, six of whom have potential ratings of 7 or higher. The upper levels of the system aren’t very good, but there’s a lot of high ceiling talent hanging out in the Midwest League.
Penny wise, pound foolish. This organization excels at throwing fairly large sums of money at nothing…repeatedly.
Dave-
Who is more likely to be with us a year from now, Reed or Broussard?
Neither.
Garciaparra actually got a little over $2 million, but as a two sport athlete, they were able to spread the bonus out over multiple seasons.
So the M’s spent twice as much to sign Garciaparra as the Diamondbacks spent to sign Conor Jackson, who they were able to select because the Mariners signed Greg Colbrunn.
Is there anything that can be done about the High Desert ballpark? Move the fences, raise the fences, freeze the baseballs? Seriously, giving up one of your most important development tools like that is crazy.
I see Gillicks focus on international scouting as a huge plus to this organization and his shortcomings as bearable in comparison to that and the on-feild performance during his tenure, but I don’t think we’re going to agree on this issue. IMO Bavasi has been worse for the M’s than Gillick was. You can list alot of players who were not even professional yet that Gillick didn’t spend money on (and therefore the team doesn’t have) and I can list alot of players that were already Major League ready (most times at the M’s training expense)that Bavasi gave away.
Dave, if you had to put one of these Future Forty players in as a starter after releasing Vidro, which one would it be (whether at DH, or in the feild to move someone else to DH)?
Where would the Andrews (Baldwin, Barb) be if the list was extended? Is there much hope for either one?
Is there anything that can be done about the High Desert ballpark? Move the fences, raise the fences, freeze the baseballs? Seriously, giving up one of your most important development tools like that is crazy.
It’s the environment more than the park. The thin air and high winds conspire to make the ball absolutely fly.
Dave, if you had to put one of these Future Forty players in as a starter after releasing Vidro, which one would it be (whether at DH, or in the feild to move someone else to DH)?
Easy – Adam Jones to LF, Ibanez to DH.
Where would the Andrews (Baldwin, Barb) be if the list was extended? Is there much hope for either one?
They’re in that 41-60 range of guys who are all basically the same. I like Baldwin a little more than Barb, but they are both longshots.
What happened to Travis Chick, the pitcher the M’s got for Eddie Guardado? He had a call up last September, but is not on your Future Forty. Is he still an M?
So Carlos Triunfel likley wont reach his potential because of a high risk factor?
and also i read that Hargrove is close to getting a contract extension..what are your thoughts on that?
What happened to Travis Chick, the pitcher the M’s got for Eddie Guardado? He had a call up last September, but is not on your Future Forty. Is he still an M?
He’s still with the organization, but he’s battling through arm problems.
So Carlos Triunfel likley wont reach his potential because of a high risk factor?
No, that’s not at all how you should apply risk factor. If I thought there was very little chance that Triunfel would reach his potential, he wouldn’t be on the Future Forty. You should interpret Triunfel’s rating to mean that he has a huge amount of talent, but that there are a lot of things that he has to overcome before he’s contributing to the Mariners.
and also i read that Hargrove is close to getting a contract extension..what are your thoughts on that?
Rather than hijacking threads, with questions like this, send us an email.
Consider it a successful hijack… what have you heard about the situation, Dave?
Churchill was the first person to tell me about it. I’ll do a post on it if I can get some other confirmation.
Thanks for the reply and sorry to get the thread off track. That’s fairly big news. Anything on Bavasi?
If you’re sorry for the hijack, then stop hijacking. And no.
Thanks for the info Dave.
For heaven’s sake, why????
Basically, Gillick’s approach to international would be a plus ON TOP OF regular minor league development. International development INSTEAD of minor league development is not a winning strategy; it makes your organization unbalanced and fatally weak in one area—as we have been seeing.
For an organization that was rapidly becoming cash rich as the Mariners, an either/or strategy is nothing less than managment incompetence. It should have been and/and.
At this point, Dave, what’s your sense of how the M’s stack up against the rest of MLB? I realize you can’t really do a Future Forty on every team in the majors, but if you did, and then ranked them, where would you guess the M’s would rank?
When you account for young major leaguers like the Future Forty does (and thus, the M’s still get credit for Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, and Morrow), the M’s would probably be in the 15-20 range. They’ll be quite a bit lower than that in farm system rankings that only include prospects who still qualify for the rookie of the year award, as most teams have significantly more depth in the upper levels of their minor league systems than the M’s do.
So, total under 25 talent in the organization – middle of the pack. Just minor leaguers, bottom ten.
Tui’s got another double tonight, by the way, giving him four in five games. Keep in mind that he had 20 extra base hits all year last year, and he only had four doubles in two and a half months after being promoted to Double-A.
Small sample size, but at least it’s a happy small sample size.
Glad to hear about Tui. As far as sample size goes, every big sample size started out as a small sample size.
I notice a decided lack of starting pitchers in the near future, and that seems to be our biggest need. I really don’t see how the team can leave Morrow in the bullpen. We need 3+ starters next year, and we all see how well it worked out trying to get three off the FA market this year.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2003616835_mari14.html
In this article, Greg Bishop of the Times discusses Triunfel and another teen in camp named Anthony Phillips. He’s a 16 year old middle infielder out of South Africa. Bishop doesn’t describe his game at all, so does anyone have any info on this guy? The team must have seen something in this kid to make them jump on him that early.
Dave, great work. I’m curious, is there a current MLB player that compares favorably with Truinfel?
Physically, Triunfel reminded me a bit of Andruw Jones – not that tall, thick lower half, but still pretty athletic and a good runner.
In terms of his swing, I’d probably go with someone like David Wright – line drive power without a huge uppercut, while the ball just leaps off his bat. Wright may have more home run power than Triunfel will due to the size differential, though Triunfel certainly runs better.
That is a great idea DavidM3……..it would be cool if Dave could reference a big leaguer that these players are most comparable to (assuming they achieve the reward that Dave assigns to them).
I was taking a look at that link Paul had up for the old Future Forty and I was surprised how bad it looked. Maybe it is just hindsight but it seems a pretty pathetic list after the first few players. I like this list much better. It gives me a feeling that the ship is going in the right direction a little and the next 3 years will be better than the last 3.
…who was traded for Quniton McCracken. Ahhh, memories. 🙂
…who never won 116 games
I’m starting to sense intentional dissent.
Heh, the Mariners aren’t the only ones having problems with the snow. The Wisconsin T-Rats haven’t played at all since that first game. Triunfel apparently hurt himself in that first game landing awkwardly after throwing / fielding a ball, but it didn’t seem to be serious. People were very excited about Triunfel before he was signed by the Mariners, so it’s no surprise whatsoever that people are excited about him now. Hell, I’m jazzed just thinking about having a top notch position player prospect again.
Other Future 40 questions:
What exactly determines whether someone should be a Projected Regular or a Projected Contributor? I only ask because the Projected Regulars all have a Reward of 7 (except Justin Thomas at 6) but some of hte Projected Contributors (only on the “several years away” list) have 7s as well. Is that only because they’re on the “several years away” list and still have some potential to expand beyond or will those players, especially the pitchers, pretty much only be bullpen guys?
What are the chances that most of these guys will still be in Wisconsin on June 2ndish? I’m going to be in the area on that date, and might catch a a game if possible.
Dave,
Quick question. I know the guy’s name came up a bit in discussions last season regarding the Everett roster…….what’s the current scoop on Douglas Fister? The org jumped him all the way to West Tenn (AA) and he had a solid first outing of the season.
5 Inn
2 hits
1 ER
1 R
2 BB
5 K’s
Is he still an Org type or does he have the chance to take a big step up this season?
Thanks in advance.
“Potentially. Early reports on Clement out of Tacoma have been very encouraging…”
He’s 3-20 with a hr and two walks…still can’t throw at all or receive.
He doesn’t have very many supporters among the coaches in Seattle…as a catcher.
I was taking a look at that link Paul had up for the old Future Forty and I was surprised how bad it looked.
Yeah. So anyone who forgets how completely horribly Gillick botched the farm system — let that serve as a reminder.
What exactly determines whether someone should be a Projected Regular or a Projected Contributor? I only ask because the Projected Regulars all have a Reward of 7 (except Justin Thomas at 6) but some of hte Projected Contributors (only on the “several years away†list) have 7s as well. Is that only because they’re on the “several years away†list and still have some potential to expand beyond or will those players, especially the pitchers, pretty much only be bullpen guys?
There are some thin lines in places, simply because we have to draw disctinctions somewhere, and there will be guys at the top of one tier that are pretty close to the guys at the bottom of another. It’s just part of the deal. Generally, a regular is a guy who can be a rotation member or everyday player, while a contributor is a reliever or a bench player.
What are the chances that most of these guys will still be in Wisconsin on June 2ndish? I’m going to be in the area on that date, and might catch a a game if possible.
Most of them will still be there. Triunfel, Butler, and Tillman aren’t going anywhere this year. Liddi or Lo might get promoted if they’re tearing the cover off the ball, but I’d bet on most of them staying in Wisconsin for the majority of the year.
Quick question. I know the guy’s name came up a bit in discussions last season regarding the Everett roster…….what’s the current scoop on Douglas Fister? The org jumped him all the way to West Tenn (AA) and he had a solid first outing of the season.
He’s tall and has good command, but his stuff is below average. He’s not an organizational type yet, but he’s a fringey prospect. He can probably succeed in Double-A even with his current repertoire, but to make the leap to the majors, he needs to develop his secondary stuff a bit more.
He’s 3-20 with a hr and two walks…still can’t throw at all or receive. He doesn’t have very many supporters among the coaches in Seattle…as a catcher.
He’s ripping the ball right at people. His defense is fine, and most of the coaches on the staff are Clement supporters. We know you hate this team, Terry, so why don’t you just go root for someone else?
Given the small sample size…how are his outs? Solid line drives? Or weak tappers? 17 flyouts to deep center field mean something different than 17 dribblers to 3rd base. At least, it would to me….
Thanks for the response Dave. One more quick question on Fister.
It sounds like he had better “stuff” (maybe a few more mph on fastball/ better bite on slider) during his 2005 college season, then in 2006 he lost some of his zip and bite.
Anyone in the org know what caused the drop in “stuff” in 2006 and was it something that could be fixed and him show a slight jump back to his 2005 ability?
It’s not that uncommon for college guys to see their velocity drop once they get to the pro ranks. In college, you’re throwing once a week against maybe one or two professional level hitters. In the minors, you’re throwing every four days and you have to pace yourself to get through a line-up where most of the guys can hit a fastball.
We shouldn’t hold out a lot of hope that Fister is going to add a couple MPH to his fastball. He’s probably going to have to learn to pitch in the 86-90 range and use his offspeed stuff and command to succeed.
Dave,
Thanks for more excellent work.
I’ll probably do more Aquasox games than the bigs this year. Anybody you think I should take a special look at other than Mario Martinez,Doug Salinas and Carlos Peguero?