Wheel of GM speculation
So Geoff Baker at the Times wrote something really interesting to me a while ago: he said that the M’s, if they fired Bavasi mid-season, would be looking for an interim GM, someone currently serving as a GM but with previous GM experience. Presumably, a name.
First, if they do, I’ll be shocked: firing the GM mid-season, especially ahead of the draft, is rarely done, and with good reason.
But second — who would that be? Who would want that job, and who would give their assistant GM permission to leave mid-season to take the job?
We can pretty reasonably assure no one in the AL West would be so generous.
So… assistant GMs who’ve served as GMs. Who was Baker hinting at?
Jim Duquette, of the Orioles?
Gord Ash, of the Brewers? Possible bonus points for previous Blue Jays (and thus, presumably, Baker) connection.
Dan Evans is right here, but he’s “Special Assistant to the GM”
Update-clarificaton: Dylan wrote
Baker actually responded to a comment I made via E-mail concerning the possible interim GM’s. He told me that the interim candidates were from within and had previous GM experience, with one of the candidates even having previous managerial experience. Who in our front office fits the bill?
Thatttt’s even more interesting.
And see Dave’s comments, below: he thinks it’d be likely to be Pelekoudas.
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You forgot Lee Pelekoudas who is the assistant GM, so theoritically I think he’d be first in line. Certainly I have no idea why someone out of house would take the job until the offseason rolled around and you actually had time to rearrange the F.O.
Was Pelekoudas a GM at any point?
It wouldn’t be Evans – he’s basically Bavasi’s consultant, and if Bill goes, he goes too.
I don’t recall any team ever hiring an interim GM or manager from outside the organization – it’s always an internal promotion. Very few people would leave a secure permanent position to take a placeholder job in a new organization.
Personally, I don’t think there’s much of a chance Bavasi gets fired until at least after the draft (because organizational upheaval can undo literally thousands of hours of draft prep that has already been done), and if the team did go the interim way after an inseason removal, it would almost certainly have to be an internal candidate. That basically leaves the choices as Pelekoudas, Engle, or Fontaine, with Fontaine’s relationship with Bavasi also complicating that possibility.
I’d bet on Pelekoudas as the likely interm replacement, but in the end, I doubt Bavasi gets fired during the season.
GM of my heart.
Have you guys heard any more about the contract extension that was possibly given to Hargrove? Is this (and a possible extension given to Bavasi) considered a golden parachute before the inevitable firings?
I could see the M’s doing something like this
Fire Hargrove in early May as team goes into nosedive, promote McLaren to interim manager
Fire Bavasi in July post-draft as team continues nosedive, promote Pelekoudas to interim GM
Of course, that sort of scenario is pretty bad news for things like getting Ichiro back…
DMZ-
Baker actually responded to a comment I made via E-mail concerning the possible interim GM’s. He told me that the interim candidates were from within and had previous GM experience, with one of the candidates even having previous managerial experience. Who in our front office fits the bill?
Former Governor Dan Evans? I meet him once. He seemed like a stand-up guy. I can’t see him taking the job.
Honestly, what would be the point in canning Bavasi now? The damage is done. If this were Pat Gillick we were talking about, and the organisation was about to screw the pooch on the umpteenth consecutive draft day – then yeah, DTMFA. But Bavasi’s drafts have generally been fine. He can’t do much damage until Novembe; sacking him now would do more harm than good.
The guy in the organization with previous managerial experience is John Boles. I can’t see the organization handing him the job, even on an interim basis, however.
8
Yeah I wasn’t sure what to make of it either. He commented on bringing in an assistant GM on an interim basis and I wasn’t sure if he meant from another club (ie an Antonetti) type so I asked him. He e-mailed me back apologizing for not being clear and made those statements. It’s in my other e-mail that I can’t access at work but I’m pretty sure that was exactly what he said.
I read his asst. GM comment as an internal hire as well. Basically, he’s talking about Pelekoudas, Looper, Evans, and Boles without naming them.
7
It’s precisely because it would be a bad idea to fire somebody pre-draft that we should be concerned that the Mariners will do it.
Dan Evans was one of the architects of the Alaskan Way Viaduct. Just keep that in mind!
Is there any chance that Dan Rohn would be offered the Manager’s position once Hargrove is ousted? My understanding is that his problem was with Hargrove, not upper managment.
Rohn will never work for the M’s again.
I’m pretty sure that Ichiro isn’t coming back. And the lack of decisiveness has a lot to do with that (not just currently, but over the offseason and past year or so).
13: No more Rohn. Was it due to competence or something like voicing dissention with Hargrove or Bavasi
He basically went around telling the players on the team that Hargrove is an idiot. Regardless of whether he’s right or not, that’s pretty obviously insubordination – there’s not a job in the world where you can go around telling coworkers that your boss is a moron and not get fired for it.
I’m struggling to find the upside to firing Bavasi midseason, unless there’s somebody in-house who ownership thinks will be better in selling off players at the deadline (although I suppose that’s a low bar that’s been set). It seems to me that firing GMs midseason is much rarer than firing managers, so that would be a huge indictment of Bavasi’s performance.
That indictment may be justified, but it creates a weird situation where the people in charge of player personnel are effectively temps, making moves with no indication of what the next GM and manager will value.
Meanwhile, if they’re going to fire Hargrove, I wish they would do it now. If this skid extends too much longer, it’ll officially be a lost season and there’s less of an upside to a managerial switch.
Too bad. I guess Truth and Prescience don’t count.
fwiw, this was Baker’s phrasing on the blog:
If the Mariners stay true to form, they will bend over backwards to ensure that any decision made is not a panic decision and cannot be viewed as a panic decision. Concurrently, they know they cannot appear to be indifferent or incapable or responding as another season washes away.
To me, that means that a Hargrove firing is not imminent, but is inevitable if the team continues to limp. Bavasi is safe for at least the next several months, if not the entire season.
#19:
Steve Phillips?
Not that this ownership group has the moxie to pull it off, but is there any reason they couldn’t pull off an early-season shocker, can Bavasi and Hargrove, and bring in Antonetti and Girardi right now? (Assuming, of course, that Antonetti would endorse Girardi for GM.)
When was the last time a GM was fired mid-season, anyway? I can’t remember it happening.
He basically went around telling the players on the team that Hargrove is an idiot. Regardless of whether he’s right or not, that’s pretty obviously insubordination – there’s not a job in the world where you can go around telling coworkers that your boss is a moron and not get fired for it.
Except for pirate. If Rohn was a pirate, he could’ve rallied the troops against Grover and made him walk the plank.
I’ve certainly read a lot here about Antonetti’s merits as a replacement GM. I buy it. What about managers? What about somebody like Dusty Baker? or Bobby Valentine back from Japan?
I’m not sure Dusty Baker would be worse than Hargrove, but I’d rather not find out.
When was the last time a GM was fired mid-season, anyway? I can’t remember it happening.
Allard Baird was fired last summer, with Dayton Moore being brought in from the Braves to take over. However, even in that circumstance, the Braves required Moore to stay on with their organization through the draft, and Baird’s scouting staff ran the draft for the Royals without Moore’s input.
This is a bigger deal than most people realize, I think. Even if the M’s wanted to hire Antonetti right now, they’d have a whole host of problems relating to how much he knows about the Indians draft plans and such – it’s very likely that the Indians would object to him changing organizations before the second week of June.
It’s much easier to do a GM change during the offseason.
Sheez they should be in a panic. Management should not be shy about the crappy condition they’ve created for themselves.
At this point the ship is sinking, the fans are already becoming discontent and the prospect of games at Safeco Field with crowds of 10K are in sight.
The only games I’ll even consider attending will be games with a SP named Felix. If Felix isn’t pitching, I’m not going until they hire some Major League pitchers and put them on the roster. I only hope this doesn’t translate into Felix getting ridden like a horse, injury or not.
I think the distaste for Baker around here would rule him out in major parts of the blogging public. His ego, high profile status and contentiousness would probably rule him out with the Mariner brass. Me? I don’t think he understands pitchers well, and he’s another person who doesn’t develop rookies very well. That’s not a trait you want with this team.
If the M’s hired Antonetti (and, again, this is a big if), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Torey Lovullo get a serious look. He’s revered in the Indians organization for the job he’s done with their minor league kids.
Also, I’m pretty sure I’m in the minority here, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Buck Showalter brought in. His shtick gets old after a couple of years, but he understands the game, is a good strategist, and could be a good fit while the organization shifts directions.
So let’s say Grover gets canned and Bavasi stays until the end of the year. If the M’s are out of contention come July does the front office allow him to trade Ichiro or others for prospects? Or do they put a tight leash on him hinting he’s gone at the end of the season. What a mess, you know if they can Grover it’s only a matter of time before they let Bavasi go. How does a guy do his job when he knows it’s about to end. In some ways they almost have to let him go. I don’t know about you guys but I sure don’t want him making anymore trades this year.
I can’t imagine why they would make an in-season GM switch. It’s the manager that makes the day to day on field decisions. Bavasi’s decisions for this season have basically been made: what good does it do to bring in some whose only responsibility between that point and October would be to maybe make a couple of trivial roster moves or trades?
It’s looking to me like Bavasi is gone after this season, but there’s no reason, it seems, to not wait until the end of the seaosn to get rid of him. Hargrove, yeah, the sooner he’s gone, the better. But the utility of sacking Bavasi in-season is negligible at best.
It’s much easier to do a GM change during the offseason.
Sure, for all the reasons you stated, and I’d be shocked if Bavasi was gone before the season ends.
It’s such a waste, though. If ownership is pretty much determined that he’s gone after this year, and if they’re also going to focus on external candidates for their job search, you’ll have a lame duck GM staff potentially dealing assets like Ichiro with no sense of what the next staff will value. It’ll make it doubly disappointing to lose Ichiro if the resulting talent is a pool of guys the next GM isn’t that high on.
If I were the Mariners owner, I would make the decision on my next GM now, tell Bavasi that he’s not allowed to make any deals involving significant Mariners assets, and then try and hire my new GM right after the player draft. The new GM wouldn’t know the Mariners organization all that well, but he’d still probably be better equipped to make trades than Bavasi.
Doesn’t hiring someone with GM experience mean we need to hire someone who’s been fired before, possibly more than once?
With the attendant ugly spectacle a decent man being publicly dangled with his nuts cut off. It’s a credit to Baird that he didn’t just clear his desk and leave the Royals to fend for themselves on draft day; he showed great class by maintaining his dignity and meeting his commitments despite Glass’s actions.
If the Mariners do not intend to resign Ichiro and don’t trade him for prospects I will quit being a fan.
Oh, I’m sure that they INTEND to resign Ichiro.
It’s just that I’m sure that Ichiro doesn’t want to re-sign. And the Ms brass will dither and be indecisive about this.
My only concern is that there are some serious issues that need to be addressed in-season and I don’t want Bavasi doing them. The draft he can handle but Ichiro not so sure. If he truly has made up his mind to leave we need someone to pull off a trade that will help not hinder the future of this club. What a mess.
I’m be willing to bet everything I have on the fact that Antonetti will NOT be the next Mariners GM. Furthermore, I’d say the odds are pretty slim that he’ll even be considered. The fact that he’s well thought of by this blog means that he probably goes against what everyone in the FO thinks.
The faster Hargrove and Bavasi Go, the Better
I wonder about billT’s concern, too: I’m pretty sure Antonetti could wow his way into a job if he got the chance, but Dave, what are the odds the M’s even give him the chance? Is there any real possibility they’re even bright enough to put him on the interview list?
No, Chiro — Bavasi gone before the draft means Fontaine’s gone before the draft, and that probably means Mattox running the draft again, and I can’t think of anything much worse for the future of our farm system than that. (Well, maybe hiring Hawk Harrelson as GM, but that’s about it.)
As much as we might be championing Antonetti’s cause here at USSM, he’s not some obscure guy – he’s been on every interview list for open positions for the last two years. He turned down the chance to interview for the Royals job last summer and the Red Sox job during the offseason before that because he wants to find a good fit. If he wasn’t as picky, he’d be the Red Sox GM right now.
He’s no secret within baseball. Mark Shapiro has said that he believes Antonetti will be the best GM in the game within 5 years. It’s not just us – he’s got a lot of support from a lot of people in baseball.
Please not Gord Ash.
FSN: So what happened to Bill Bavasi?
Hawk: HE GONE!
As for Baird, he was a special case: it seemed like that man was doing everything in his power to ruin that organization with each passing day. Bavasi has done some serious damage to the payroll and the roster (in addition to the good things he has done for the org), but he is not nearly that bad.
I find Dave’s comment that Rohn called Hargrove an idiot pretty damn funny. The truth– a fireable offense.
While I’m willing to justify (and anticipate) a Hargrove firing, I’m still hopeful Bavasi can delay the inevitable himself. The last thing I want is him to be fired pre-draft, the damage will be far greater than the perceived short sighted benefits.
Really? I thought it was common sense NOT to be insubordinate. There are other ways to get your point across without doing as stupid as what Rohn did.
47, common sense if he wanted to stay with the Mariners. If it was so infuriating to be around Hargrove that he just couldn’t take it, well, getting fired himself probably wasn’t the end of the world. I’m not saying he shouldn’t have been fired, but I’m not going to judge him. He made his bed, but it very well may have been the bed he planned on sleeping in, if that makes any sense.
Wow. Didn’t mean literally it was a wise decision, merely that it was a true statement.
And my guess being in settings similar in the sportsworld, is he did try getting his point across in other ways, realized it was futile, and being just as “old school stubborn” as most baseball men, he went about the wrong way not caring about the potential results.
Ah, OK. There were some folks around that literally could not understand why that was a bad thing for Rohn to do.
While I suspect the M’s will not fire Bavasi before the draft (and probably not before the end of the season) for the reasons mentioned above, it is not a given that a “Bavasi guy” like Fontaine immediately follows him out the door.
This is not a situation where Bavasi is going to get another GM job right away (or anytime in the foreseeable future) and have a position waiting for Fontaine. While overmatched as a GM, Bavasi is a stand-up guy, and I would not expect him to equate loyalty with voluntary unemployment. Fontaine would be better off waiting until the end of the season to switch organizations. In the end, the new GM may want to keep him, and there may not be better opportunities elsewhere.
it is not a given that a “Bavasi guy” like Fontaine immediately follows him out the door.
This is true. I’d say its likely Fontaine stayed the whole year, in fact. However, the chance that he might leave (along with other area scouts) makes it a big risk to take.
and I would not expect him to equate loyalty with voluntary unemployment.
Bavasi resigned as GM of the Angels rather than fire scouts whom he felt loyal to. He might not expect this same dedication from others, but he’s clearly exhibited it himself.
Boston not a good fit, but Seattle is? I’m obviously very ignorant about all of this, but what about the Seattle organization sets itself appart, especially considering we might not be the most interested of the teams interviewing Antonetti?
Good sized market, good stadium, owners willing to spend money, and yet an underachieving club. If someone wanted to put their name on the map by building a good team – Seattle provides a bit of a challenge given the state of the franchise, but they also have the resources available so it’s not an impossible task.
53. Because Nintendo ownership could get Diamond Vision 2.0 to run on the Wii.
Anyone think the M’s might pull Beattie out of retirement?
Boston not a good fit, but Seattle is? I’m obviously very ignorant about all of this, but what about the Seattle organization sets itself appart, especially considering we might not be the most interested of the teams interviewing Antonetti?
The media’s the big one. While I’m not a huge DePodesta guy, you can put a significant portion of the responsibility for his firing on the local press in Los Angeles, who pounded on him and his statgeek ways from the day he arrived. He wasn’t perfect, but there was no grace period, with guys like Bill Plaschke firing up the fanbase to get the nerd out of office as quickly as possible.
Boston’s media is similar, and since Antonetti is going to have to face all the questions about being a young guy from an Ivy League school with no professional baseball experience as a player, he’s probably right that his first job should be in a lower exposure city. Seattle’s media is about as organization friendly as you’ll find in the game.
It’s also a very attractive place to live for most people.
or is it Diamond View 2.0
When a new GM takes the helm, will he or she have free reign to implement completely new ways of evaluation and signing players, or is there some higher-up front office influence that will affect that? Will the new GM be expected to adopt, at least in part, the general “roll the dice on veterans” plan, or is that all Bavasi?
When a new GM takes the helm, will he or she have free reign to implement completely new ways of evaluation and signing players, or is there some higher-up front office influence that will affect that? Will the new GM be expected to adopt, at least in part, the general “roll the dice on veterans” plan, or is that all Bavasi?
We won’t know until we find out who they hire. Pat Gillick had a huge influence on Howard Lincoln, and Gillick was basically allowed to hand-pick his replacement, so while there was some shift in organizational philosophy during the regime change, it wasn’t as drastic as it needed to be.
If some of the Gillick pixie dust has worn off of Lincoln, and he decides to see the value in the type of analytics that almost every other organization has started to shift towards with their recent GM hirings, then we could see a total 180 in the way the organization evaluates players.
Antonetti, for instance, wouldn’t take this job if part of the mandate was to keep the Gillick legacy alive. I have a feeling, however, that the spell he cast on the executives has almost worn off, and they’re pretty close to being ready for a wholesale change.
The M’s as an organization have never mixed some of the newer school thinking of the DePodestas, Epsteins, Ricciardi, etc. with their old school ways. The dinosaurs in the front office would never take a risk on an Antonetti. Just my two cents.
Well, that’s a key question…How much will a new GM be able to implement new evaluation schemes? I get the feeling that a new GM will have to deal with an organization that still has a foot or two in the last Century, and that can be a big problem, given the example of the last few years.
free rein, not reign
Wouldn’t make a point of this, but I’m seeing it all over these days, even in major magazines and sites like ESPN. Think horse, not king.
The M’s as an organization have never mixed some of the newer school thinking of the DePodestas, Epsteins, Ricciardi, etc. with their old school ways. The dinosaurs in the front office would never take a risk on an Antonetti. Just my two cents.
The executives want to make a lot of money. The M’s will make more money if they win. If a guy like Antonetti can convince Lincoln that they can win more games with a lower payroll (and they can), then they’ll listen.
Cetainly hope so. Best thing for the execs to realize is that Gillick’s methods worked best for Gillick and to copy them without him is not working (beacuse I just don’t think they’ll suddenly realize that his methods were bad….).
Yeah, but at least it makes metaphorical sense, unlike other malapropisms that have cropped into the English language…
Dave – I’m trying, but I just don’t see it. Any “Antonetti Plan” will require significant upfront investments and the analysis he shows will demonstrate a payoff occurring years down the line. I have yet to see Lincoln, Armstrong et al employ a strategy of looking any further than 1-2 years ahead of them. Their short-term focus on today’s profitabilty blinds them to much bigger, longer term returns.
Is it good then not to have “baseball people” in the upper front office/ownership, because they might be attached to their own vision or philosophy of the game, and unwilling to be open to new and better ideas?
unlike other malapropisms that have cropped into the English language
Please tell me you typed it that way on purpose!
Bavasi resigned as GM of the Angels rather than fire scouts whom he felt loyal to. He might not expect this same dedication from others, but he’s clearly exhibited it himself.
Good point, but it is a little different when the boss with the big salary makes the stand rather than the subordinate (and Bavasi’s decision might have been motivated just as much by the direct challenge to his authority). It probably depends on the extent to which Bavasi would have hard feelings — publicly, he has acknowledged that he expects to be fired if the team does not improve, but privately, he may resent the interference from his supervisors, especially if they made him keep Hargrove over his objections.
You would think, however, this management group remains out of touch and unwavering in its ability (or lack thereof) to sample and take the best of current thinking on player evaluation.
Dave – I’m trying, but I just don’t see it. Any “Antonetti Plan” will require significant upfront investments and the analysis he shows will demonstrate a payoff occurring years down the line. I have yet to see Lincoln, Armstrong et al employ a strategy of looking any further than 1-2 years ahead of them. Their short-term focus on today’s profitabilty blinds them to much bigger, longer term returns.
I think Antonetti could come in with a plan that would say something like “I think we can win next year, and we can be great in three years.”
As bad as the last week was, this team does not need a total rebuild. There’s still the core of a playoff team here – they just need significantly better role players. That’s something you can fix in one good offseason.
I’m going to throw another possible GM candidate name into the mix: Mike Rizzo, now an assistant GM with the Nats. He’s the guy who built the Arizona talent pipeline.
Thoughts?
How about giving a new GM free range to implement new tactics.
That’s a malapropism that could use some life.
It doesn’t take a ton of time to “rebuild,” either. Just ask the Tigers.
I’m failing to see why the Mariners would fire Bavasi mid-season, even after the draft.
Unless they have absolutely no faith in his ability to deal players in the month of July, what’s the point? There aren’t a lot of moves he’ll be making from summer on, anyway. They might as well wait until the fall, so that they have a wider variety of potential GM candidates to choose from.
Btw, while I’m very interested in Antonetti as GM, if we can’t get him, why not Ash? I don’t know a lot about him personally, but it seems like the Brewers have done a fine job of rebuilding over the last few years.
Anyway, thanks for the information, and all the hard work you guys put in. I don’t post here that much, so I just wanted to mention that. All ya’ll rule.
The issue with Bavasi is, as I see it, Ichiro. If the M’s cannot extend Ichiro, they will have to make the biggest trade (after Griffey) in their history. I’m sorry, but Bavasi has not shown any talent in that area. If you keep him all year, he will be the one pulling the trigger. Example, for Ichiro, you would want two young pitchers, top of the line. I would expect Bill to get us Pryor and Kerry Woods..
I’m not familiar w/ Rizzo, but if he came in with the new ownership last year, he’ll be untouchable.
There’s no way you get two blue chip pitching prospects for Ichiro. Don’t kid yourself, we are going to be disappointed in whatever it is we end up getting.
What if it becomes obvious that Ichiro isn’t going to re-sign with the M’s next year? Do they allow Bavasi to make a trade? That’s the only issue I see hanging from now until the off-season. Thoughts?
Why?
Yup. Beltre, Ichiro and Felix aren’t killing the team. What’s killing them are the collective payments to mediocrities: Washburn+Batista+Sexson+Vidro represent $40 million in salary locked up multiyear in FOUR players… and the value they add is not even close to that. Toss in Weaver and Guillen to that and we’re looking at $60 million in salaries to players who are either average and being paid like stars, below-average and being paid well, or just plain bad. There are so many better uses for this money it’s not even funny.
E.C., I don’t think there’s anyone on earth worse at tags than you. Man, I clean up your open italics a lot…
Sorry Dylan, I meant that as an example of what we would expect, two damaged pitchers with big names. I have no idea of his worth but cannot believe Bill does either.
I’m going to throw another possible GM candidate name into the mix: Mike Rizzo, now an assistant GM with the Nats. He’s the guy who built the Arizona talent pipeline.
I’m not convinced that the skills required to be a great scouting director are the same as the ones required to be a great GM. Rizzo did a very good job down in Phoenix, but there are so many things about being a GM that have nothing to do with being able to watch an 18-year-old play and project his future.
Btw, while I’m very interested in Antonetti as GM, if we can’t get him, why not Ash? I don’t know a lot about him personally, but it seems like the Brewers have done a fine job of rebuilding over the last few years.
Ash is very old school. Most of the credit for Milwaukee’s turnaround belongs to Doug Melvin, Jack Zduriencik, and Ned Yost.
Looking at the M’s salaries and performance, the Washburn deal doesn’t even look bad anymore.
Boy, talk about faint praise.
Atait – Stan Kasten came into Washington with a long-term plan for success that he will do everything in his power to make happen. He pays his people well, keeps them happy and focuses everyone on the long-term goals of the organization (and miraculously seems to keep everyone on the same page). I just don’t see a typical M’s under-market offer pulling anyone away from an organization that is going through a complete 360.
84
Haha no need to apologize my friend. I’m just saying I think that the average Mariners fan (educated or not) greatly overvalues Ichiro’s trade worth.
Ichiro trade will be bigger than the Randy Johnson trade? In what way?
I just moved house and am culling the CD and book collection. EC, I can send you some XHTML books if you need help….
88 – Just like the average M’s fan (educated or not) greatly overvalues Ichiro’s worth as a player and member of this franchise?
To follow up – Ichiro’s value of course has gone up immensely since he moved to CF.
Dave, what about Kim Ng? Worth a look?
Dave, what about Kim Ng? Worth a look?
Derek’s driving that bandwagon, so that question is better served his way. Me, I see two kinds of candidates – Antonetti and “Not Antonetti”.
Good postings today. It’s what makes USSM tops. Real names, real information, speculation noted as such. I see why the founders consider this a graduate level M’s discusson, not a rant site (Although, DMZ has few peers when it overflows!!). Thanks guys!
Something tells me that the M’s aren’t the most likely team to break down that barrier and let a woman run the show.
Also, I’m pretty sure I’m in the minority here, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Buck Showalter brought in. His shtick gets old after a couple of years, but he understands the game, is a good strategist, and could be a good fit while the organization shifts directions.
No doubt, this lifeless team could use some of Showalter’s drill sergeant schtick.
Although Dave’s completely right that a good scouting director doesn’t necessarily make a good GM (Peter principle, anyone?), Logan White’s name has been kicked around for a few years as a potential GM candidate. I’ve even heard him described as a virtual lock to get the lead job somewhere a year or two down the road.
He may be moderately old school, but if you’re going to go the scouting director-to-GM route, might as well take a shot at getting the best in the business. From everything I hear, he’s a wonderful personnel manager as well as a great scout. Players love him, and I’m pretty sure he’d be dedicated to maintaining the Mariners’ unparalleled international scouting department.
Logan White is a tremendous scouting director – there’s no denying that.
But, honestly, I’m not sure he’s what this organization needs. He loves athletes, guys with huge amounts of potential, and isn’t afraid to take risks in order to land the guy he thinks could turn into a superstar.
His draft picks bear this out – Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, taking James Loney as a 1B when most teams had him as a LH pitcher, hard-sign Luke Hochevar, and Clayton Kershaw. These guys are all high ceiling guys that come with their fair share of downside. White believes in their tools, and he’s almost always been right.
But I’d suggest that this organization needs to stop gambling on people’s tools, and start evaluating major leaguers in an entirely different way. Logan White is cut from the same cloth, analytically, as Bill Bavasi. It’s probably a much finer type of linen, but it’s still the same scout-for-potential mindset that the organization has been using, and failing at, for most of their history.
I’m not totally against Logan White, and he might turn out to be a shrewd judge of major league talent… but his hiring would make me nervous.
A few years back, when the Blue Jays fired Buck Martinez, I know that at least one of his coaches resigned out of loyalty to Buck, so it happens.
The problem with “great scouting directors” is that we have one as a GM right now. And while he has rebuilt the farm system (with a huge assist from Fontaine… OK, it’s been mostly Fontaine), he has been abysmal in a multitude of other ways.
It’s like buying a car because just because it has insanely good handling. Sure, it can turn on a dime, take corners tighter than you’d ever imagine, and move with the fluidity of a ballerina, but what if it got 10 MPG? Or went 0-60 in 45 seconds?
Look for the whole package. Look at strengths and weaknesses. Antonetti may be the best candidate, but it’s not because he’s an incredible talent scout or great at finding budget talent. It’s because he can do both.
But Seattle is the kind of town that could get behind it.
I believe the M’s had interest in Jim Beattie when they hired Bavasi, but he was under contract with the Orioles at the time. Because of his previous stints with the team as a player and as director of player development, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went that direction. He’s available and still has good relations with Armstrong and possibly some others in the organization. He could be the one Baker referred to (see comment 19)with previous GM experience from outside the organization.
Dave, I realize Antonetti’s high-profile and widely-respected; I just wonder whether the M’s ownership is open-minded enough to consider going that route.
16:
I do that all the time
I don’t buy the argument that you can’t fire the GM in midseason because he’s “not going to be doing anything” until the next draft.
I’m certainly not an expert, but I’m quite sure there’s a lot more to being a GM besides sitting with your feet on the desk, smoking a big cigar, and pulling the trigger on big deals. A GM has to build an organization; the drafts and the deals don’t mean anything unless they’re part of a bigger framework. He’s got to gain an understanding of what players he has, at all levels, what coaching he has, at all levels, what other tools like scouting he has, and then mold those into something he can lead.
Hiring a new GM today — if he’s the right one, of course — wouldn’t just impact a deal or two this summer, or the next draft; it would set us up for a good future. The longer we go with management pointing the club off target, the further away we get. And management today IS off target; we’re doing better in some things than the old regime, like drafting, but we’re still doing a ton of things wrong. We’re still evaluating players wildly inaccurately, for one thing. If a new caretaker GM can at least avoid doing more Vidro deals in the next nine months, that’s a plus right there.
dw:
Bavasi wasn’t a scouting director with the Dodgers. He was the farm director. There’s a big difference.
While the Dodgers had nothing bad to say about Bavasi in that role, the man has never excelled at any baseball job the way Logan White has as the Dodgers’ scouting director.
I’m not necessarily saying the Ms should rush out to hire him as soon as the job opens up, but if Bavasi’s firing doesn’t trigger an organizational overhaul, White might be the best option of those candidates most likely to appeal to the front office.
Yeah, but with a caretaker GM, changes WON’T be done–it’ll be business as usual. That’s just part and parcel of being a caretaker—you don’t do major shifts in the way you go about business. And, as we point out, the organization needs some significant changes in the way they do business in a number of areas.