Game 1: A’s at Mariners
King Felix vs Dan Haren, 3:35 pm
A bunch of interesting subplots in tonight’s game – Travis Buck makes his major league debut, Shannon Stewart tries to prove he’s alive, Jose Guillen may or may not play due to an ankle injury (which will probably lead to an Ignitor sighting), and of course, Felix becomes the 8th youngest pitcher in major league history to take the hill on opening day.
We’re generally ones who wave away gut feelings and fate, but to me, today’s game just feels like one of those that we’re going to remember where we we when it happened. Felix’s last start as a 20-year-old, on opening day, against the team that handed us our lunch last year. This is one of those games that the organization could really use, because no one wants to start talking about 2-17 against Oakland against.
So, my guess? Felix throws a complete game, allows one run on four hits, walks one, and strikes out 11. He walks off the field to a standing ovation, and we all remember April 2nd, 2007 as the day that King Felix told the world that he was here to stay.
Go Mariners.
The Coolest Thing You Didn’t Know About
If I told you there was a major league scoreboard that updated Win Probability in real time, would you get excited? If so, you’re as nerdy as I am, which makes me feel a little bit better.
Anyways, it’s true. Fangraphs has a live, updating scoreboard that calculates WPA on the fly. ESPN or MLB will tell you that Jose Contreras got bombed – only fangraphs will tell you that his wretched performance was worth -.482 WPA. Since each time starts with approximately a 50% chance to win the game, and Contreras reduces the White Sox chances by 48%, you can safely say that Contreras destroyed any chance the White Sox had of winning today. Sometimes, one guy really can win or lose a game.
On the other side of the ledger you can quantify just how much guys like Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Ben Sheets, and Adam Dunn have carried their teams.
I heart fangraphs. Of course, this automated version of WPA isn’t as accurate as one done manually, such as the ones Jeff Sullivan does at Lookout Landing every night. His commentary is also hilarious, so don’t let the awesomeness of live WPA distract you from the fact that you still need to read LL every morning.
MLB.tv 5 day free trial
If you are like me and live just a wee bit outside of the Mariners broadcast area, but you still want to watch opening day, MLB.tv has made it possible.
They are offering a 5 day free trial of MLB.tv during the month of April. Yes, you’re required to cancel before the five days expire or you’ll be charged for whichever service you sign up for, but canceling simply requires sending an email from your account to a specified address.
Basically, it boils down to free baseball for five days. Even if you don’t like the idea of watching the games on your computer, it’s better than nothing.
Opening Day Festivities, USSM Prediction contest
10:00 AM: I’m on KUOW’s Weekday, talking about the Mariners, the Cheater’s Guide to Baseball, and all things baseball.
Also at 10: Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ New York Yankees, ESPN
11am: Chicago Cubs featuring Lou Piniella @ the Cincinnati Reds, ESPN2
1-3ish: USSM pre-game chilling at the Pioneer Square Saloon. I sign books, and trade books for beer. Hang out!
1: Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, ESPN
3:35ish: M’s versus Oakland, in an unusually important series for the M’s — if Oakland flattens them to start the season after last year’s ridiculous drubbing, that’s going to be tough to come back from.
4: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins, ESPN2
6:21pm: Ohio State vs Florida in the NCAA Tournament final. If the M’s game is a blowout, I expect to see fans streaming from of Safeco to Pyramid/Sluggers/etc to catch that game.
7: Texas Rangers @ Anaheim LA Angels of Anaheim.
Contest: email us with your guess for the highest and lowest announced attendance numbers for the 2007 season. I will painstakingly collate them, and prizes will be awarded at season’s end.
Happy Opening Felix Day
Well, it’s finally here. This time it counts, or do we have to wait until July to say that?
In about eight and a half hours, Felix Hernandez will throw a first pitch fastball to open the 2007 season, and what is likely the most pivotal season in the franchises history will begin. We’ve written our fair share of analysis and opinions about how the offseason went and what we expect this year to look like, but as of today, only the results on the field matter.
Today, we have hope. King Felix takes the hill for the last time before he turns 21 and makes the first of what is hopefully a decade or two of opening day starts at Safeco Field. Win today and the team will take possession of first place.
Huzzah for opening day. Go M’s.
Jamie Burke awesomeness
First, I’m surprised that Jamie Burke never changed his name to Jamie Molina to increase his defensive reputation and chances of getting a major league job.
But that’s not what I’m writing about. If you look at Burke’s 1999 line, you’ll see something interesting:
1999: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K.
What happened?
In 1999, the Edmonton Trappers were the Angels AAA affiliate, facing the Rainiers. When the Trappers threw Burke to the mound in the 11th (12th?) inning of a tied game, they thought it was over. But Burke pounded the plate, the Rainiers couldn’t get anything done and three innings later, he got the win.
The only press hit I’ve found was the LA Times, which said “Besides Fyhrie, the best pitcher lately has been utility infielder Jamie Burke, 27, who threw three scoreless innings in a mop-up role, striking out three and registering 89 mph on the radar gun.” (May 18, 1999, p 8)
I’ve been trying to find a good game story or box score to post here, but the Tacoma News Tribune’s archives are pay-only, and I can’t find anything from the Edmonton side. I was hoping I’d be able to say that Ryan Franklin took the loss, so I could say “Jamie Burke out-dueled Ryan Franklin” but it was just as likely Sean Spencer or Rafael Carmona.
Anyway, I’m really hoping someone gets a chance to ask him about this, so we can find out if Raul Ibanez went up against him that late night.
Larry Stone utterly rocks, the M’s collapsed
So here’s Larry Stone today:
– a detailed and well-researched article on precedents to Morrow’s situation
– a considered, even article on Jose Guillen’s ability and reputation
– a quick, breezy view of the season to be.
There were a lot of articles today in the Times and the Tacoma News Tribune on the team’s dire state, Bavasi and Hargrove’s jobs, but I wanted to focus on that for a second — Larry Stone just rocks, and I’m happy he’s in town. He’s USSM’s Officially Endorsed writer for a reason.
On that, then:
Bishop on how the M’s collapsed.
Geoff Baker previews the season, touching on that Athletics Nation quote I used in “Imagine Sisyphus a Mariner”
So, to the TNT:
Enough absurdity, M’s, just give us a little mediocrity
‘Tremendous camp,’ Bavasi says
Blackley dealt
Corco, here’s your roster move — LHP Travis Blackley sent to San Francisco for OF-R Jason Ellison. Ellison will be on the 25-man roster to open the season. As has been hinted at in the comments, Ellison went to South Kitsap with Willie Bloomquist. Yes, the Willie Bloomquist.
On a personal level, I’m sad to see Blackley go. Back when he was going really well (2003), I had the chance to interview him while he was pitching for San Antonio. We talked about baseball, life in the minor leagues, how he developed his changeup (messing around while playing cricket), and his growing up in Australia over the course of an hour. It’s funny… I interviewed a number of players on that trip, and other than Jose Lopez they’re all gone — Rett Johnson, Clint Nageotte, Justin Leone, Chris Snelling, and now Blackley.
Man, what a rotation the Missions had that year: Johnson, Nageotte, Blackley, Bobby Madristch and (while I was there), Matt Thornton.
Opening Day USSM Chill-o-thon
Tomorrow, Pioneer Square Saloon (73 Yesler), 1-3ish. I may show up even earlier. Short version of directions: walk down your north-south avenue of choice (1st, 2nd, whatever) until you get to Yesler Way. Look to the water. It’s on the south side of the street.
If you’ve managed to get your hands on the book, I’ll be happy to sign, if you don’t, I may be able to strike a deal to provide one for you. Elliot Bay and your local bookstore should have them in stock, and if they don’t, you should raise a fuss.
Come! Hang out! Pre-commiserate! Get excited for the game! Enjoy a delicious beverage!
Two sweet Cheater’s Guide reviews
A nice recommendation in the Detroit News and a really positive review in the Chicago Sun-Times. Now I can tell you to order the critically-acclaimed (and Jim Bouton… uh, what would you call that, baffling?) Cheater’s Guide to Baseball. Hee hee hee.
Opening Day post coming.