I think Spanky had ir right. To me, pitchers think they’ll get an automatic out with Sexson coming up, so they’ll “pitch carefully,” knowing that if they walk the guys ahead of him, Sexson won’t be able to drive them in.

But in #16, the logic is backward. I’d think if Sexson were hot, pitchers would bear down more, not “pitch carefully.” To me, “pitching carefully” would not avoid extra baserunners, it might actually generate more.

MLB general managers don’t work like that. They won’t look at Sexson’s slow start and say the his value has diminished. They don’t look at such small sample sizes. I bet these exact same discussions had this time last year and he finished the season pretty close to his career averages.

Is it because he doesn’t walk enough? I don’t believe putting Beltre in the third spot is going to remedy the situation more than Johjima would. We all saw what he did in the 3rd spot given the opportunity. He didn’t fare well, to say the least.

I think Joh could be a very productive 3 hole hitter, and he demonstrated that in his first game there yesterday, knocking home the tying run.

Opposing pitchers see him as a “break” through the order and are pitching more carefully to Ibañez and Guillen (bringing down their numbers).

So you’re saying that Sexson is anti-protecting Ibanez and Guillen? I doubt this effect exists any more than protection effects exist.

You might say with just as much logic that if Sexson were hitting well that pitchers would also pitch more carefully to Ibanez and Guillen, to avoid extra baserunners.

What I would do:
Vs LHP: Ichiro-Lopez-Beltre-Guillen-Johjima-Sexson-Ibanez-Vidro-Betancourt
Vs RHP: Ichiro-Ibanez-Beltre-Broussard-Guillen-Johjima-Sexson-Lopez-Betancourt

I was thinking Sexson was having a historically bad start this year — and he is, even for him, though this year Kornerko and Delgado are right there with him, and Ryan Howard isn’t much better — but actually he only has to hit ~.285 in the 500 or so ABs he has over the rest of the season to bring his average up to where you would expect. It’s hard to believe he fell off a cliff between October and April; and I can’t believe he starts every season hitting balls right at guys and then gets luckier as the weather gets warmer. I don’t know if it takes a while for him to get his eye back, or to get his swing co-ordinated again, or what, but given that this seems to be an annual occurance should he be working with a hitting coach all winter to try to stay in that late-season groove?