Three Trades That Should Happen Tomorrow
One of the basic tenets of market economics is that free trade allows all parties involved to benefit by exchanging goods that are of more use to others than they are to themselves. You have lots of berries, I have lots of meat, let’s make a deal and we’ll all have better meals.
Baseball generally doesn’t work this way. Teams become overly attached to their own players and generally don’t make trades to balance their organizational talent levels, but instead horde all their players until they believe they are contending, then pay through the nose to acquire the missing pieces.
Sometimes, however, it just makes sense for two organizations to exchange pieces. There are several scenarios playing out right now where clubs have giant holes at specific positions and are overloaded at other spots, making for an inefficient use of resources. For the good of all involved, and because trades are fun, here are three deals that major league clubs should pull off tomorrow.
1. Tampa Bay trades OF Rocco Baldelli to Atlanta for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Tampa has too many outfielders. They’ve had too many outfielders for a couple of years now. With Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, and Elijah Dukes, they’ve already got three guys who should be playing everyday. Add in Jonny Gomes as a fourth OF with some power and the reality that B.J. Upton should probably end up in the outfield in the not too distant future, and they don’t need Rocco Baldelli. What they do need is a catcher, however, as Dioner Navarro is pretty horrible and it’s the one position they don’t have any real depth in at the minor league level.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has handed Matt Diaz an everyday job in LF after jettisoning Ryan Langerhans, and he’s a much better fit as a RH platoon partner or fourth outfielder. He doesn’t provide enough offense to make up for his below average defense, and at 29 years old, he’s not exactly the future. There’s also the issue of Andruw Jones impending free agency with no internal replacement, and the Braves are in need of an outfielder, preferably one who can play left field this year and potentially move to center next year. In Jarrod Saltalamacchia, they have the best catching prospect in the game, a switch-hitter with power and a good approach at the plate. In the nice-problem-to-have department, however, Salty has this guy named Brian McCann’s ahead of him on the depth chart, and that won’t be changing anytime soon.
Salty would be an immediate upgrade over Dioner Navarro for the D’Rays, and provide them with a young star at the one position they don’t have a young star. Baldelli would provide an upgrade over Diaz as the Braves make their pennant push this year and an in-house fallback plan should Andruw Jones not re-sign over the winter. The Braves improve their team using only a resource that has little chance of impacting their team, while the Devil Rays continue to load up for a hostile takeover of the A.L. East beginning in 2009.
2. Chicago trades OF Jacque Jones to Anaheim for SS Sean Rodriguez.
Like the Devil Rays, the Cubs have too many outfielders. Their defense needs Felix Pie in center field, but with Jones, Floyd, Murton, and Soriano running around, they have too many guys fighting for at-bats in a league without a DH as it is. Jones is a consistently underrated player, combining good defense with power against RH pitching, but he’s not significantly better than the guys the Cubs could easily replace him with.
Besides Vlad Guerrero, the Angels just can’t hit. They have gaping holes at LF and DH, with Garret Anderson and Shea Hillenbrand providing the normal below average performance that we’ve come to expect from two of the game’s more overrated players. Playing in the worst division in baseball, their pitching staff is poised to carry them to another playoff spot, but the offense needs help and needs it soon.
Sean Rodriguez has a good knack for hitting but hasn’t made himself a permanent home on the diamond yet, as his defense at short is questionable at best and he’s also spent some time at second base, third base, and in center field. With the Cubs lack of upper level SS prospects, they can afford to hope his bat outweighs his defensive issues at the position. The Angels have no real need for Rodriguez with talents like Erick Aybar ahead of him on the depth chart as it is.
3. Seattle trades OF Wladimir Balentien to Minnesota for RHP Scott Baker.
The Jeff Weaver experiment looks like a failure, and Horacio Ramirez isn’t doing much better. Cha Baek is a AAAA pitcher with no upside, and the Mariners lack upper level pitching depth behind him. So, without making a move, there aren’t many internal options that can help this team patch the back-end of the rotation, or be counted on as useful contributors to the 2008 rotation. The M’s need another effective starting pitcher, and it would help if he didn’t cost $10 million on a multiyear contract.
The Twins, meanwhile, continue to try to contend while punting the left field position. Josh Rabe, Jason Kubel, and Jason Tyner are not the kind of guys who should be splitting at-bats at a power position for a team with playoff aspirations. The Twins could use a left fielder with some power, and with Torii Hunter’s looming free agency, it would help if he was right-handed and under contract for more than just one year.
Meanwhile, the Twins have no need for Scott Baker, who is stuck in the glut of quality pitching prospects toiling away in Rochester. He’s behind live-armed top prospect Matt Garza and strike-throwing machine Kevin Slowey, as well as southpaw Glen Perkins, all of whom are waiting for Sidney Ponson to implode to get a shot at the Twins rotation. Oh, and they get this guy named Francisco Liriano back next year. Baker is buried in Minnesota, but has shown he’s a major league quality pitcher, throwing up a nifty 16/62 BB/K rate in half a season last year and is currently dominating the International League (3 walks, 30 Ks in 30 IP). He’s a strike-thrower without a dominant outpitch, but his stuff is several grades ahead of guys like Cha Baek, and he’d instantly become the Mariners 4th best starting pitcher. He’s also 25 and not eligible for free agency for 5 more years.
Wladimir Balentien, meanwhile, is tearing up the PCL, hitting .357/.430/.625 as a 22-year-old. He’s cut down on his strikeouts and the increased contact has allowed his secondary skills to be lifted by a decent batting average for the first time in several years. He has prodigious raw power and fits into the Twins mold of aggressive toolsy players. As he’s going to be out of options after this season, he’ll have to stick on a major league roster next year, and he’d fill an obvious hole for the Twins. The Mariners are already struggling to find a spot in the line-up for top prospect Adam Jones, and its unlikely they’ll want to break in two young outfielders at the same time next year. As a RH pull hitter, Balentien’s not a great fit for Safeco Field, and by bringing back a young arm that can help the rotation both now and in the future, he’ll provide some immediate value to the franchise.
re: Salty, I was amazed that it took just 2 games for the ‘where can we play him’ articles to arrive; such as here and here
and fwiw, Batgirl would be very sad to lose Scott Baker.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:22 amWhy don’t we trade Wlad and Jeff Clement to the Braves for Salti and a pitching prospect. I would much rather have Salti than Baker and I just don’t see the improvement in Clement.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:26 amWhy do the Braves need Jeff Clement? The point of these suggested trades is that both teams are trading from excess depth to fill a weakness.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:30 amSeems to me like the D-Rays need pitching more than anything else.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:34 amThey don’t, actually. With Kazmir-Shields, they’ve got two solid young arms already. Toss in top prospects Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, Wade Davis, and David Price (the #1 pick in the draft in about a month, a mortal lock to go to Tampa), and they have four of the best young pitching prospects in the game. They also have control artist Andy Sonnanstine and potentially useful Jason Hammel hanging out in Triple-A, plus lower level arms like Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Walker.
The D’Rays have young pitching coming out their ears - they’re just being very patient and letting these guys develop in the minors, rather than rushing them to the major leagues.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:38 amI agree the Cubs need to move an OF. The four player rotation of Pie, Murton, Floyd, and Jones likely gets the least production out of each of them. I like Jones but waiving him MIGHT make the Cubs a better team just by ending the CF/RF nonsense. Why Pie is in the majors if he isn’t playing every day is beyond me. Fricking Piniella.
Given that the Cubs are playing for THIS year, would Rodriguez be able to be the major league SS today? Is he any better than Theriot or Izturis, or is he simply the long term solution at a position where Izturis sucks, Theriot isn’t a SS, and Ronny Cedeno can’t him major league pitching?
What’s the chance the Mariners actually make a trade like this; any better than 10%?
May 8th, 2007 at 8:38 amWould the Twins really make that trade? I would think that Baker would bring someone a little more big league ready and a bit less risky than Wlad………
May 8th, 2007 at 8:39 amIs the Wlad trade selling high? Has he made any significant modifications to his approach at the plate that makes you think the higher average and lower strikeouts is sustainable? I can’t understand how he can make such a dramatic shift from 140 k’s in 121 games in San Antonio to the second coming of Babe Ruth in Tacoma this year.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:40 amGiven that the Cubs are playing for THIS year, would Rodriguez be able to be the major league SS today? Is he any better than Theriot or Izturis, or is he simply the long term solution at a position where Izturis sucks, Theriot isn’t a SS, and Ronny Cedeno can’t him major league pitching?
They could give Rodriguez a shot in the majors and see if he adjusts quickly - his defense at SS is better than Theriot’s, but thats not saying much. But he’s probably more a next year guy than a this year guy.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:41 amWould the Twins really make that trade? I would think that Baker would bring someone a little more big league ready and a bit less risky than Wlad………
Baker’s not a top prospect - his lack of a true outpitch and HR proneness in the majors last year are going to depress his value. He’s a solid arm, a good back of the rotation guy, but he’s not the kind of top flight pitching prospect thats going to get you a major league star in return.
Is the Wlad trade selling high? Has he made any significant modifications to his approach at the plate that makes you think the higher average and lower strikeouts is sustainable? I can’t understand how he can make such a dramatic shift from 140 k’s in 121 games in San Antonio to the second coming of Babe Ruth in Tacoma this year.
Wlad has made some adjustments to his swing, but the .350 batting average is more luck than improvement, driven by a large increase in singles. He’s done a good job cutting down on how often he chases the low and away slider and he’s making better contact, but the improvements have been smaller than you’d think looking at his overall line.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:44 amI wasn’t suggesting that Baker would bring a big league star; I was thinking more along the lines of a decent, semi-proven player (Ryan Church for example). Another thing to think about is that I’ve heard that Ichiro is expected to let the club know before the trading deadline whether he’ll resign; if not, and with Guillen only signed for this year, it’s not inconceivable that both Jones and Wlad would have a shot at the outfield next year. Maybe the M’s should wait until they know if Ichiro is coming back before doing anything. I agree they desperately need competent starting pitching, but they could use some young outfielders too…….
May 8th, 2007 at 8:53 amI would think that trading Wlad is precisely the thing that minor league prospects are for. While he may surprise us again, it seems to me that he doesn’t grade out to be a superstar. He’d be a solid major league starter and that’s worth a major league pitcher (something that the team definitely needs)—and even more so, a pitcher we’d control for many years.
May 8th, 2007 at 8:54 amSpeaking of Ichiro, what would he fetch in the trade market if he decides he’s not coming back?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:01 amIs Wlad major league ready now, or does he need a little more time in the minors? (It feels like we’ve been talking about this guy forever.) And could Vlad help the M’s today? DFA/Trade Vidro, install Wlad in left and move Ibanez back to the DH slot?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:01 amOh, and baseball’s a little weird on how free trade affects market economics. Part of what makes free trade so good in a free market is that it’s not a zero-sum game. You trade your berries for my meat and we’re both better off because there’s no ceiling on how well we eat.
There are only so many wins in a baseball season. That constrains the market a bit. You’ve done a good job of identifying win-win situations for each of the teams involved, though. Especially since none of these teams are direct competitors in the same division.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:04 amI imagine this is going to be quite the hot topic in about a month or so. Especially if the M’s keep falling in the standings.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:06 amAs the resident Wlad Optimist, I’m contractually obligated to pick at this:
“Wlad has made some adjustments to his swing, but the .350 batting average is more luck than improvement, driven by a large increase in singles. He’s done a good job cutting down on how often he chases the low and away slider and he’s making better contact, but the improvements have been smaller than you’d think looking at his overall line.”
Perhaps, and no one is arguing that he’s a .350 hitter in the majors. But I just don’t understand how the argument can be that he’s just a singles hitter when his ISO’s up significantly over last year. His ISO is well above .250, and he still leads the M’s org in HRs. That’s got nothing to do with singles. Recently, a lot of the singles have been drying up, and his average is dropping (along with his BABIP). And you know what? He’s STILL tearing the cover off the ball. I’d take .300/.380/.540 every day of the week.
His improvements look much more the result of an improved LD% and a consolidation/improvement in patience. He made big strides in his walk totals last year, but that came at the expense of power - and his LD% was absurdly low last year. This year, he’s keeping the walks but his LD% and XBH% are back where they were in the low minors. He’s been patient (not amazingly so, but solid) before, and he’s been a line-drive hitting XBH machine before. He’s just doing both at the same time now. The really NEW thing is that he’s not striking out as much - but that’s much tougher to pin on luck, BABIP, etc. It’s well over 100 ABs now too, which shows at least some of the improvement is likely ‘real.’
All in all, I think you’re right: the trade would help both teams. But the M’s need to figure out what they want to do with their outfield. And as 11 points out, the Twins may want a ‘proven veteran’ in return.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:12 amIf nothing else, I suppose that this trade could be contemplated shows that Wlad’s value is on the rise across the league.
I wasn’t suggesting that Baker would bring a big league star; I was thinking more along the lines of a decent, semi-proven player (Ryan Church for example).
I don’t think so. Baker doesn’t have that kind of value.
Another thing to think about is that I’ve heard that Ichiro is expected to let the club know before the trading deadline whether he’ll resign; if not, and with Guillen only signed for this year, it’s not inconceivable that both Jones and Wlad would have a shot at the outfield next year.
I really doubt there’s anything what you heard about Ichiro. Regardless, even if the M’s lose Ichiro and Guillen, replacing them with Jones and Balentien makes the line-up too RH heavy - with Lopez, Betancourt, Beltre, Johjima, and Sexson locked in for next year, you don’t want to add two more RH hitters to that mix. There’s really only room for Jones or Balentien next year - not both.
Speaking of Ichiro, what would he fetch in the trade market if he decides he’s not coming back?
That’s a whole other topic. We’ll do that post another day.
Is Wlad major league ready now, or does he need a little more time in the minors? (It feels like we’ve been talking about this guy forever.) And could Vlad help the M’s today? DFA/Trade Vidro, install Wlad in left and move Ibanez back to the DH slot?
His power’s pretty much done developing, but in a best case scenario, he’d spend at least another two months in Triple-A. He’s already better than what the Twins have in LF, however, so if he was in their organization, he should be starting for them.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:15 amPerhaps, and no one is arguing that he’s a .350 hitter in the majors. But I just don’t understand how the argument can be that he’s just a singles hitter when his ISO’s up significantly over last year.
I’m certainly not calling Wlad a singles hitter. I was simply pointing out that the .357 average is being driven by an increase in singles, compared to his usual skillset performance. He’s not getting more hits because he’s driving the ball at a greater rate - he’s driving the ball at the same rate he always does (a very good one), and then, in the balls that he doesn’t drive, more of those are going for singles than before. That’s where the BA improvement is coming from, and that’s an area that I’m wary of calling sustainable.
I’d take .300/.380/.540 every day of the week.
Sure, so would I. But take away the singles that are probably not going to continue to fall at that rate, and that’s basically his Triple-A line. Adjust that down to the major leagues and he’s more of a .270/.340/.500 guy. That’s pretty much what we’ve been saying his potential is for a few years. A useful player if he develops, but probably not a star.
The really NEW thing is that he’s not striking out as much - but that’s much tougher to pin on luck, BABIP, etc. It’s well over 100 ABs now too, which shows at least some of the improvement is likely ‘real.’
Pollreisz has done a good job helping him lay off the low and away brekaing ball, and yes, the higher contact rate is a very good sign. He has made improvements - I’m not trying to say that he hasn’t taken a step forward. I just don’t think he’s taken the huge leap forward that his overall batting line might suggest. He’s gotten a bit better and gotten a little lucky at the same time.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:21 amHow is Scott Baker all that different from a guy like Justin Germano who basically was freely picked up by the Padres over the winter?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:22 amBaker’s got significantly better stuff than Germano. Germano throws 84-86, Baker’s 89-92.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:23 amWhat do you think would be the chances that the Ms would pull the trigger assuming the Twins were willing?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:26 amProbably not very good. The M’s aren’t going to look to a guy in Triple-A as the answer to their rotation problems. They went out and got all these bad old players because they were convinced they needed more veterans - they aren’t going to change course and go back to young guys now.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:28 amBavasi’s on record insisting that minor-league performance isn’t an indicator of major league performance. That’s why he only goes after guys with significant major-league experience.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:32 amEverything I’ve read about Baker is that he’s got good stuff and throw strikes — apparently all too well. When he isn’t striking out guys, he’s giving up a ton of hits. Is his high BAPIP (.355) from last year unsustainably high? Is he the rare guy who is waiting to rise rather than regress to a sustainable mean?
Seems like Minnesota kept working with him to fix the problem, and kept giving him chances, but that Baker just couldn’t make that repair to his abiolity to locate that would get batters to chase pitchers that weren’t in the heart of the strike zone.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:36 amThe definition of insanity is repeating the same action over and over again, expecting different results. The M’s front office are definitely insane by that definition, which really depresses me as a fan.
Antonetti in ‘08!
I’m glad I have the Extra Innings package so I can watch the Dodgers.
Jimmie
May 8th, 2007 at 9:36 amDave, what’s your favorite/most useful source for scouting reports etc?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:36 amThe Twins are not likely to make the deal either, as Terry Ryan values the veteran presence too. He could probably get an Emil Brown-type for Baker.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:38 amEverything I’ve read about Baker is that he’s got good stuff and throw strikes — apparently all too well. When he isn’t striking out guys, he’s giving up a ton of hits. Is his high BAPIP (.355) from last year unsustainably high? Is he the rare guy who is waiting to rise rather than regress to a sustainable mean?
Yes, his BABIP is unsustainably high. When a guy is giving up hits, it’s easy for everyone to assume the pitcher is doing something wrong. There’s no reason to believe that, because of an 80 inning sample, that Baker has some inherent flaw that makes him unable to prevent hits on balls in play.
Seems like Minnesota kept working with him to fix the problem, and kept giving him chances, but that Baker just couldn’t make that repair to his abiolity to locate that would get batters to chase pitchers that weren’t in the heart of the strike zone.
He’s 25 and he has a total of 137 major league innings - this isn’t a guy who has gotten a bunch of chances and blown them all. He’s not Roberto Petagine.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:39 am16- “I imagine this is going to be quite the hot topic in about a month or so. Especially if the M’s keep falling in the standings.”
the Ms are only 1/2 a game out…they haven’t even started to fall yet…yet…
May 8th, 2007 at 9:40 amDave, what’s your favorite/most useful source for scouting reports etc?
Without sounding too sarcastic, scouts.
Publically available though, Baseball America is obviously a pretty good resource, but with the rise of zealous team-specific blogs, you can usually find a pretty accurate assessment of most guys on a major league club at the local fan hangout. There are a ton of good Twins blogs, for instance.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:40 amSooo, if the presumption is Ichiro is gone by the trading deadline and Jones and Wlad are the two best outfielders at the upper end of the system and you have a 35 year old in lf, effective but 35 none the less, whose cliff may appear sooner than later, why not trade Raul?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:49 amYou already said the Weaver experiment is fizzling fast, and it appears Ramirez isn’t too far behind. Is there any chance the M’s could do a 180 from the ‘veteran rotation + Felix’ mindset and possibly pick someone like Baker and maybe go with Feierabend in the 4 - 5 spots in 08′?
May 8th, 2007 at 9:49 amSooo, if the presumption is Ichiro is gone by the trading deadline and Jones and Wlad are the two best outfielders at the upper end of the system and you have a 35 year old in lf, effective but 35 none the less, whose cliff may appear sooner than later, why not trade Raul?
I don’t presume that Ichiro is gone by then. I’m also under the strong impression that Ibanez will retire as a Mariner. He’s been annointed as the Edgar/Wilson replacement Mariner-for-life, and the executives aren’t going to sign off on him going anywhere.
You already said the Weaver experiment is fizzling fast, and it appears Ramirez isn’t too far behind. Is there any chance the M’s could do a 180 from the ‘veteran rotation + Felix’ mindset and possibly pick someone like Baker and maybe go with Feierabend in the 4 - 5 spots in 08′?
If there’s a change in management, sure. But if Bavasi/Hargrove stay, probably not.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:53 amwhy not trade Raul?
For better or worse, management has decided that Raul is the heir to Edgar as the “face of the franchise.” The GM could not trade him even if he wanted to.
May 8th, 2007 at 9:55 amSo do you think there’s a low chance that they will demote/DFA any of the existing starters?
If they did, then where do you think they will go for replacements?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:01 amSo do you think there’s a low chance that they will demote/DFA any of the existing starters?
Weaver’s on a short leash. If he’s still struggling when Felix comes back, I think he’ll get moved to the bullpen. Ramirez and Batista are going to get a lot more time.
If they did, then where do you think they will go for replacements?
They were scouting Byung-Hyun Kim’s start for Colorado Springs yesterday, so that’s one possibility.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:03 amIs there any chance the M’s could do a 180 from the ‘veteran rotation + Felix’ mindset and possibly pick someone like Baker and maybe go with Feierabend in the 4 - 5 spots in 08′?
If the team takes a dive between now and the All-Star break to the point where they are out of contention, Weaver’s gone, so that’s one spot already. I suppose they could demote Ramirez to the bullpen given some ineffectiveness. So you might see Feierabend by August.
Batista and Washburn are around for the long haul, IMO- they’re 4th starters making 2-3 money and nobody is going to take them off our hands without us taking someone else’s mistakes back, or bundling cash.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:06 amSadly I read your narrative about trades that should happen tomorrow as meaning these trades were in the hopper and about to happen. Then I reconnected my brain, realized it was early May, the Mariners were involved in one of your suggested trades, and returned to my state of hopeful depression about the team and season. I suppose the silver lining is that at the bottom of it all I may still be a “rose-colored glasses” guy, or just the victim of some very wishful thinking.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:09 amThanks Dave. These look like very reasonable trades.
When do you think the M’s will make some kind of trade for pitching since Weaver is not working out?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:09 amReally? Sigh. You’ve got to have a lot of scouting acumen to make up for that kind of willful ignorance.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:21 amwhy not trade Raul?
For better or worse, management has decided that Raul is the heir to Edgar as the “face of the franchise.” The GM could not trade him even if he wanted to.
I’m not quite understading this whole concept of Raul being the untradeable “face of the franchise.” What about Ichiro? IF he resigns long-term, wouldn’t he be considered the Face? Isn’t he already the face? And hasn’t he been the face since the day Edgar retired?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:22 amHuh. Given the skyrocketing price of pitching over the past couple years, they should be realizing that you are going to continually overpay to get any kind of results. And that what they’re getting with the Little Three is what they’re going to get consistently.
You may as well go with minor league talent, because it’s cheaper; talking about reliability is just fooling yourself.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:23 amThis all seems pretty good, but I’m having trouble believing Baldelli is the best that Atlanta could get for Saltalamacchia. Maybe I’m undervaluing Baldelli though…
As for our side of the picture, looking beyond this year, doesn’t Baker kind of give us more of what we already have? Obviously, he’s more ready now than anyone we’ve got, but I feel like we have a number of pitchers who could be 4/5 guys and nobody else. Is there no way to bundle Wlad for a more dynamic trade? Where does the impact come from?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:32 am#24: Bavasi’s on record insisting that minor-league performance isn’t an indicator of major league performance. That’s why he only goes after guys with significant major-league experience.
That’s a bit of an over-statement. Bavasi believes that the biggest organizational jump is the one from AAA to MLB. Accordingly, he is skeptical of numeric translations of minor league stats and of the concept of a “replacement level player” availability. Accordingly, when filling out a roster he clearly prefers players who have MLB experience.
Bavasi, though, certainly does feel that strong minor-league performance is a harbinger of MLB success. That’s the key to the overall strategy of promoting players. If he didn’t believe that minor league performance is an indicator of MLB performance, he would never promote players to MLB based on their performance at AA or AAA ball.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:32 amI’m not quite understading this whole concept of Raul being the untradeable “face of the franchise.” What about Ichiro?
Impending free agent Ichiro keeps a very low profile off the field. Ibanez is the media relations department’s “go to” guy for charity programs, promotional appearances, and whenever the team needs a player to act as a spokesman.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:37 amThis all seems pretty good, but I’m having trouble believing Baldelli is the best that Atlanta could get for Saltalamacchia. Maybe I’m undervaluing Baldelli though…
Scouting types love Baldelli, and it doesn’t get much more scouting-centric than the Atlanta Braves. He’s their kind of player. He’s also under contract for four more years at very reasonable salaries.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:39 amI don’t know that Ichiro could EVER be “the Face” of the franchise. It kind of requires that you give the occasional interview in English.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:44 am35. “I don’t presume that Ichiro is gone by then.”
More inside info?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:48 amWhat kind of price would the M’s have to pay?
He’s one of those guys I’ve always been intruiged by, but not enough to want to pay anything more than Wal-Mart prices for.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:53 amRaul as the heir to Edgar tells you all you need to know about the decline of this franchise, and the likely continuation of that decline for at least three more years.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:55 amsupposedly they were also in on Brian Lawrence before he agreed with the Mets
and, judging from the other day when Dan Wilson threw out the first pitch to Ibanez, and the entire Wilson family (down to Little Abraham) felt compelled to each stop and hug Raul, he is much loved in the organization as a person.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:56 amMore inside info?
Not really - I think most of us are aware that trading Ichiro would be a monumental effort that required approval from all kinds of executive powers. It’s not the kind of thing that Bavasi can just do. I’m not saying he won’t be traded under any circumstances, but I don’t think we should assume that he certainly will be.
What kind of price would the M’s have to pay?
Probably just a low level prospect. The Rockies are essentially just looking to move him to another team and get free of his contract, and any talent coming back would be a bonus.
May 8th, 2007 at 10:57 amBaker is pitching in the International League right now, not the PCL. Not a huge detail, but his numbers would be that much more impressive if he was in the PCL.
For the most part, I think that’d be a great trade for the Twins and the Mariners. The Twins desperately need right-handed pop, and currently have absolutely no solution on hand for DH next year. (I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to think that Kubel could progress enough to be a decent LF solution. He had a PECOTA projected EQA of about .280 this season, and figures to have a little more power than he’s shown so far. He’s also far from a sure thing to take a step forward.)
I’m not sure what the biggest hurdle to this trade would be–yes, Bavasi would surely prefer a veteran solution to the rotation problems, but Terry Ryan would sooner cut off his arm than trade away a pitching prospect, even one that’s buried like Baker is. The only thing that plays in favor of the Twins trading Baker is that he apparently doesn’t mesh very well with Rick Anderson.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:06 amLast time the Mariners traded a power minor league hitter to the Twins, wasn’t it some guy named David Arias?
May 8th, 2007 at 11:17 amI agree, Dave, on where Wlad is at as a hitter. He’s improved his approach at the plate and he can hit for some power but he’s not .350 good. He’s still by and large a hacker, just not as bad as he’s been in the past. I think swapping him into RF for Guillen would be, at best, a wash, but it’d also be his 1st year in the bigs, with a likely adjustment period, so it’s likely he’d be far from his potential out of the gate.
Interesting trade proposals. I actually would be more comfortable with a Scott Baker in the #5 slot than any of our Tacoma SPs.
While I agree that letting Ichiro go and starting 2008 with two rookie RH bats in the outfield is probably not a good idea… I get this feeling that it may be what the Mariners will do, unless they deal Ichiro and get one heck of an OF in return. The FA market has not been kind to the M’s the last few years (not that our front office has helped) and I’m not sure it’ll be any kinder this offseason.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:23 amIs BHK really that much of an upgrade over HoRam or Weaver?
May 8th, 2007 at 11:23 amAlso, if the Rainiers pitching coach has been able to teach Wlad to stay off the low and away junk, why can’t he do the same for Beltre? He looked so calm and collected at the plate in the make-up against Boston, then went back to his usually hacking. Still love the guy though.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:24 amI really don’t think Wlad’s going to get a shot here, honestly. The M’s are essentially locked into Ibanez, Vidro, Beltre, Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, and Johjima for next year. That gives them two open line-up spots in the outfield, one of which is probably going to be filled by Adam Jones. If we pencil him in for either CF or RF, depending on whether Ichiro is still here, that leaves one spot available, but the team would have 6 RH bats and 2 LH bats. And Ibanez/Vidro aren’t exactly the left-handed sock the organization covets.
The M’s will have to have some kind of LH power hitter in the line-up next year, especially if Ibanez’s decline is real and not just an early season slump. Putting Jones and Balentien in the line-up basically makes the team all RH, and I don’t think they’d be willing to do that.
I could be wrong, but I think next year, we’ll see Wlad or AJ, but not both. And since Wlad is in his last option year, trade bait seems like his best use for the team.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:27 am55. Ah yes, Arias. Coming off a 322/390/511 year in A ball as a 20 year old, they dealt him as the PTNBL for Dave Hollins.
I’m sure neither side at the time had any idea what he’d become. He was just another good A baller at the time. Not the best deal for the long term, though.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:29 amIs BHK really that much of an upgrade over HoRam or Weaver?
BHK’s regular season ERA last year: 5.57
Weaver’s: 5.76
Only one of those guys pitched half their games in Coors Field. Kim’s also younger and has a better K/IP rate.
I’d say he’s worth a shot. I’d rather get Baker, though.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:31 amDo I need to scold you for using ERA to evaluate a pitcher, EC?
May 8th, 2007 at 11:32 amIt’s quicker to bring up Baseball Reference than xFIP on my work computer, but Kim’s xFIP was 4.46 last year, Weaver’s was 5.38, which is line with what I expected, based on peripherals and Kim playing half a season in Denver- Kim performed better in 2006 than Weaver. The ERAs aren’t particularly misleading.
It’s fairly rare to see someone who has an ERA out of line with xFIP + park and defense adjusted factors for very long. Ryan Franklin and Elmer Dessens can have fluke seasons where it looks like they are elite pitchers, but it’s pretty rare to have back-to-back fluke seasons. You have to be able to strike guys out…which is why I included K rate.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:40 amAm I crazy for thinking Jason Kubel’s still potentially an above average major league hitter?
May 8th, 2007 at 11:46 amI wouldn’t suggest dumping Kubel, but he hasn’t shown much since that disastrous injury. It’s not like his struggles are bad luck, either - he’s just not walking much, not making contact, and failing to drive the ball when he does hit it. That’s a bad recipe.
He needs to be a .320 hitter to be valuable with his lack of power or walks. I don’t think we can expect him to be a .320 hitter this year.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:49 amBut Wlad for Baker is trading AAA talent, so would that be stopped by Bavasi’s Automatic Veteran Filter? The fact that Baker would then be eligible to get elevated as the M’s rotation collapse continues is a separate process. It’s not like he’s going to get an actual MLB pitcher, even a BOR one, even one better than Weaver, for any of the pieces the org would be willing to trade.
Bavasi’s on record insisting that minor-league performance isn’t an indicator of major league performance.
Which of course is somewhat contradictory with his “promote them until they fail” philosophy. If you promote them to AAA and they fail, but you don’t think that is an indicator of MLB performance, then… what? You’re basically saying not just that you don’t know anything, but that you can’t know anything. You’re Wittgenstein throwing darts.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:55 amjoser,
Bavasi’s philosophy is that the jump from AAA to the majors is the largest one the players will make. He therefore expects all but the greatest of players to fail for a while when making that leap. He has decided that he does not want that to be the first time that they experience failure and want them to struggle in the minors to get them used to it.
May 8th, 2007 at 11:58 amThe M’s are essentially locked into Ibanez, Vidro, Beltre, Sexson, Lopez, Betancourt, and Johjima for next year.
I assume that is true only if Bavasi is retained for next year as well, no? Wouldn’t most any new GM try very hard to offload Sexson & Vidro even if it meant eating salary?
May 8th, 2007 at 12:08 pmBest use/smart….I’m not sure that the organization could do that. I think Bavasi has a better feel for it than the rest of the organizations, but it seems to me that other admins tend to hold onto minor league talent for too long, far past their “use by” date. No one in the Mariners seems to have had a good sense of using the minor league talent (either on the big club, or in trades) with a good sense of timing.
May 8th, 2007 at 12:31 pmThe Yankees are terrific at offloading their minor league talent at maximum value.
May 8th, 2007 at 1:19 pmI doubt anyone’s going to take Sexson or Vidro at this point, especially given their salaries.
May 8th, 2007 at 2:02 pmIf you think dealing Arias-Ortiz was bad, what do you think about the Twins letting him walk?
As for Sexson, I cling to the data that shows he’s sometimes started slowly. However, the season is no longer young, and I won’t be clinging forever.
May 8th, 2007 at 2:30 pmSo what does our hypothetical new GM do with them (Sexson/Vidro). I would think they would want them off the roster somehow but it would be difficult to justify a DFA in either case.
As I recall, DePodesta paid the D-Backs a truckful of $$ to make Shawn Green go away a few years back, I would assume that a new GM would want to move them if only to clear the roster spots.
May 8th, 2007 at 2:34 pmMax,
I’m pretty sure you could deal both Vidro and Sexson if you were willing to eat their contracts and don’t expect much back. You might be able to get a fringe a-ball prospect for each one from someone desperate. That is assuming that we pay all their remaining salary.
May 8th, 2007 at 2:44 pmHmm, so Wlad could be the next David Arias/Ortiz?
May 8th, 2007 at 2:45 pmIt’s hard to speculate much without stooping to rosturbation, but there is no such thing as an isolated move.
Best case scenario 2008:
Addition by Subtraction: Sexson & Vidro
Addition by Retention: Ichiro
Addition by Relocation: Ibanez to DH
Addition by Relocation: Broussard to 1B
Addition by Addition: Jones to LF
Addition by Reduction: Someone cheap to RF; or
Addition by Replacement: Superstar to RF
Addition by Addition: Clement to Bench
Addition by Addition: A true
Addition by Addition: A true #3 Starter
Addition by Addition: A true #5 Starter
Disposable Parts:
*All RH bats in the system, except those that will appreciate in value rapidly over the near term
*All “control” lefties
*All “control” righties
*Reed
May 8th, 2007 at 2:50 pmThat chopped line should read:
Addition by Addition: A true #2 Starter
May 8th, 2007 at 2:52 pmem,
I’m trying to avoid rosterbation myself, but… Broussard really needs a platoon partner for the days we face lefties. He’s also arbitration eligible again and unlikely to take a pay cut from 3.55 million. Seeing that first base is an easy position to fill aren’t we better off letting him walk and finding a cheaper replacement at first? You could even move Ibanez to first and find a new DH.
May 8th, 2007 at 3:04 pmDave’s point about Wlad being a RH power hitter is a good one. He will never deliver his best MLB production in SafeCo. Given his current AAA numbers, I think moving him for something the team desperately needs (like a quality starter, or at least a prospect) makes all the sense in the world. Sell high, but Bavasi can spin the deal as “he’s a solid propsect, but a bad fit for our park and we really need pitching, so we’re willing to deal.”
What are the chances/is the wisdom of resigning Guillen next year?
May 8th, 2007 at 3:06 pmJMHawkins,
I don’t see an upside to signing Guillen. I would figure Wlad gives you almost all the production for much less money. The option for his 2008 contract is $9 million. You could substitute Wlad for Guillen and spend the $9 million on a pitcher and come out ahead. Or you trade Wlad for pitching and spend the $9 million on a LH power bat for the outfield. The problem is, I don’t see anyone who fits that bill available.
May 8th, 2007 at 3:16 pmAgree with the basic point here. We still need starting pitching more than we need another OF prospect. However, I’m not sure who to give up on yet.
I think we can count on Felix and Washburn. After that, Weaver, Ramirez, Batista and Baek are all question marks. Each have looked good and bad at times. Adding another starter to the mix is the right move. It gives us room for error as we search for three more dependable starters.
May 8th, 2007 at 3:24 pmHopefully Bavasi recognizes Balentien’s value as trade bait instead of simply DFAing him at years end Cruceta, Garciaparra
May 8th, 2007 at 3:31 pmHmmm, it cut out my cough tags.
May 8th, 2007 at 3:31 pmVery good point, matthew. I’d laugh at that suggestion, but part of me wonders if it could really happen…Bavasi suggesting that he really believed he could slip him through waivers, feigning surprise that he got picked up (by Pat Gillick)…this is my nightmare.
I think the team needs slugging, especially with Ibanez and Sexson on the decline. Power is also the most overvalued commodity on the FA market.
I think Wlad could actually get a shot if Guillen leaves, either at the deadline or in the offseason, as a platoon partner for Broussard. Especially given the org’s interest in trying Broussard in the corner OF spots. Wlad doesn’t have big platoon splits, but it looks like another big stride he’s made this year is killing lefties (SSA, of course, but he SHOULD kill ‘em, as a righty). Seems like a good way to ease him into the rotation. Now, that doesn’t address the larger question of trade him or not, but I think it points to a *possible* way for him to earn a job with Seattle.
I just think that if he’s around .300-.320/.380/.540 around the break, you have to find a place for him next year. Whether that’s Guillen, or whether that’s Ibanez-to-first-or-DH, I don’t care. At this point, it can’t be pinned on an increase in singles (his May BABIP is under .300 and he’s still hitting .304/.407/.565 - this is NOT a case of an inordinate amount of singles falling in) - at least not entirely.
And beyond that, I worry that the org is now so infatuated with GB pitchers that they’d buy high on a borderline ’spect who threw grounders, like a Bobby Livingston type. And speaking of Livingston, I’d want to know that Baker had a much higher upside; they both don’t walk anyone, but Baker’s K rate seems suspiciously high this year. Not saying that Livingston = Baker, but I’d want to know that my scouts all agreed that there was considerable distance btwn the two. And then I’d go talk to the scouts who advised me to not protect Livingston.
May 8th, 2007 at 4:09 pmThere’s no way the M’s would try and pass Balentien through waivers - they put him on the 40 man three years ago, when he was years from the majors, to keep from losing him. There won’t be a Cruceta redux here.
And Baker isn’t at all like Livingston. He was a 2nd round pick, routinely hits 92 on the gun, and is not a no-stuff guy. He’s more like Gil Meche than Bobby Livingston.
May 8th, 2007 at 4:21 pmWell, except that Gil Meche was never a control artist like either Livingston or Baker, and that Gil was traditionally a flyballer (until 2007). He may have Meche’s velocity, but Baker looks like a totally different pitcher.
Livingston was a 4th rounder - is the difference in success rate btwn the 2nd and 4th rounds gigantic? I thought BP’s Rany Jazayerli looked into this last year (when I had an account) - there wasn’t much of a difference. Could be wrong.
I acknowledge that Livingston is
May 8th, 2007 at 4:39 pm53 “Not really - I think most of us are aware that trading Ichiro would be a monumental effort that required approval from all kinds of executive powers. It’s not the kind of thing that Bavasi can just do. I’m not saying he won’t be traded under any circumstances, but I don’t think we should assume that he certainly will be.”
You’re certainly aware then that both Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey Jr. were traded and Rodriguez was let go and Ichiro is nowhere near the player any of those three were when they departed.
So I’m sure they could get their ducks in a row to do a deal with Ichiro as the principal portion. Similarly, it was said earlier, but Raul is a nice player having a late run, but he’s just not that good and to confer some kind of blessing upon him is a measure of how bad the management of the team has slid. Woody Woodward would be an upgrade. At least he knew what a player looked like and where in his lifecyle he stood.
May 8th, 2007 at 4:39 pmWhoa, something got cut off on 86; seems like a bit of a philosophical sentence fragment.
Anyway, I would acknowledge that Baker was more of a FB pitcher in the past - he was under 40% GB in 2006 and he’s closing in on 50% in 2007. So again, which Baker are we getting? that’s why you have scouts, of course.
May 8th, 2007 at 4:42 pmNeither Randy nor Junior were Japanese. Rodriguez is actually an “M’s won’t trade Ichiro” example.
May 8th, 2007 at 5:25 pmNo, I think the management has always been this way. And Bavasi has been aware of that (there have been comments about difficulties early in his tenure about cutting fan favoriates and marketing driving personnel decisions; obviously, the lessons haven’t sunk in as they should).
May 8th, 2007 at 6:22 pmRe: #87 — right, and remember that both the Unit and Junior deals were “monumental effort[s] that required approval from all kinds of executive powers” (thus, for instance, we had Chris Whatsisname scuttling the Unit-to-LA deal).
May 8th, 2007 at 8:41 pmWhy not trade Broussard to Minnesota instead of Balentien? Minnesota’s LF problems extend to DH as well with the same guys jockeying with Cirillo for ABs. Broussard is an instant fix for them and it doesn’t mortgage our future at all.
May 9th, 2007 at 6:33 amAgree with two of these trades, however I’m not sure about Anaheim needing to make a move. Reggie Willits has filled in great for Garrett Anderson… but I guess you could DH Jones
May 9th, 2007 at 9:12 am