A Nice Surprise
Dave · May 10, 2007 at 8:09 am · Filed Under Mariners
Cha Baek throwing a complete game, his first since he was pitching for low-A Wisconsin 108 years ago, was about as unexpected a gift as the M’s could have asked for. He’s never been known for his ability to work deep in games, and unlike some of the offenses the Mariners have faced lately, the Tigers can actually hit the ball.
Of course, with Jeff Weaver taking on Justin Verlander in about two hours, the M’s could really use another nice surprise. With Baek’s performance last night, it shouldn’t be a stretch to say that, once again, Jeff Weaver is pitching for his job. If he doesn’t show a better fastball today and some sustainable improvement, this should be his last start in the rotation.
I foresee Ichiro in a Red Sox uniform.
50 – Sexson will be in the last year of his deal in ’08, and could quite possibly be traded. There will be money to go around to sign Ichiro. It will all be up to him.
I’m pretty sure they’ll figure out a way to come up with the money for Ichiro. It’s the winning the division I’m not so sure about…
I foresee Ichiro in a Red Sox uniform.
They have a kid named Jacoby Ellsbury who has basically the same skillset and should be ready for the majors next year. So I doubt it.
with the money the M’s have already dedicated to ‘08 and beyond they’re not going to be able to spend enough to keep him in teal.
While I probably fall on the side that Ichiro is likely leaving, it won’t be due to lack of money. Ichiro is already making $11 million, and the team has over $20 million in other expiring contracts after this season. Even more expire after 2008 (Sexson, Vidro, Ibanez, Johjima).
Maybe Houston would still want to talk about that Oswalt for Ichiro deal.
#46
I’m usually not of fan of people pointing out one typo in a post, but I think that ‘megativity’ would be an awesome name for a jazz dance ensemble.
The only fit I can see that makes sense for Ichiro would be San Diego.
OK, Baek’s FIP and xFIP are both comfortably below his ERA (and below 5). If Baek’s able to get his BB/9 down to where it was in AAA, he’s not some fungible, AAAA, replacement-level pitcher. He’s pitching better than he did in 2006, and he’s not getting any sort of credit for it.
I realize that as a low K guy, he’s never going to get a lot of love here. And I’m not annointing him as the savior of the rotation. But let’s be honest: a FB pitcher running FIPs in the 4.5 region, pitching half his games at Safeco…that’s a nice thing to have.
IF Baek can continue to limit walks (which was pretty much his one ‘skill’ in the minors), then he’s got a half-decent shot at being (moderately) valuable. In fact, his FIP is better than Jarrod Washburn’s (Baek’s strand rate is in the 60s, and Wash’s in in the high 70s). So yeah, there’s real data around. Let’s just not make this an open and shut debate. If you think Baek’s FIP is unsustainable, why?
It’s one year, but Baek pitched late in games plenty of times last season – he had more IP/Start than anyone on the Tacoma rotation, so it’s not like he’s never worked deep into a game before either.
OK, Baek’s FIP and xFIP are both comfortably below his ERA (and below 5). If Baek’s able to get his BB/9 down to where it was in AAA, he’s not some fungible, AAAA, replacement-level pitcher. He’s pitching better than he did in 2006, and he’s not getting any sort of credit for it.
It’s 4 starts. Before last night, his FIP was near 6.00.
I realize that as a low K guy, he’s never going to get a lot of love here. And I’m not annointing him as the savior of the rotation. But let’s be honest: a FB pitcher running FIPs in the 4.5 region, pitching half his games at Safeco…that’s a nice thing to have.
But we have several years of information that tell us that he’s not good enough to run a 4.50 FIP.
IF Baek can continue to limit walks (which was pretty much his one ’skill’ in the minors), then he’s got a half-decent shot at being (moderately) valuable. In fact, his FIP is better than Jarrod Washburn’s (Baek’s strand rate is in the 60s, and Wash’s in in the high 70s). So yeah, there’s real data around. Let’s just not make this an open and shut debate. If you think Baek’s FIP is unsustainable, why?
Because it’s built on one great start overriding three pretty lousy ones.
Yes, it’s 4 starts – 4 starts that include some terrible ones. The question is: is a BB/9 of the mid-2s sustainable for Baek. I think it is, you obviously don’t.
We have several years of his minor league track record that suggest he could run a FIP in the..oh, I’m eyeballing it, 4.8 range or so. His MLB FIP in 2006 was quite poor, but then it would be with a BB/9 closer to 4.
So: is he a 3.5-4 BB/9 guy in the AL Dave? That’s really the crux of the argument here.
Imagine if the M’s employed Chien-Ming Wang — the bashing would never stop.
Yes, it’s 4 starts – 4 starts that include some terrible ones. The question is: is a BB/9 of the mid-2s sustainable for Baek. I think it is, you obviously don’t.
Oh, I’m pretty sure he could run a 2.5 BB/G all year. But his FB rate and HR rate would both go up substantially. It’s a sliding scale. More strikes will lead to more homers, because he doesn’t have any pitches that are good enough to consistently throw by hitters in the strike zone.
Imagine if the M’s employed Chien-Ming Wang — the bashing would never stop.
We love groundball pitchers with good stuff. So I doubt there’d be much bashing going on.
63 –
Ok – now we’re getting somewhere. I think that’s quite plausible, so it’s really a matter of degree. I just think I’d live with a HR/9 that’s in the 1.4-5 range if he’s able to run K/9 around 5.5-6 and keep his BB/9 btwn 2.3-2.7 or so. That’s nothing to sneeze at, frankly.
It makes him start to look like a poor man’s Joe Blanton, or a rich man’s Robinson Tejeda. If you were an A’s fan, I’m sure you’d have a lot to say about Blanton and the media annointing him as another of those guys who ‘just knows how to win’ or ‘pitches to the score’ or whatever. I know he’s not some sort of all-star. But I would take a slightly worse version of Blanton for the league minimum.
Clearly you think his HR rate would go up a lot more – where were you thinking – 2 per 9 or so?
63 –
Ok – now we’re getting somewhere. I think that’s quite plausible, so it’s really a matter of degree. I just think I’d live with a HR/9 that’s in the 1.4-5 range if he’s able to run K/9 around 5.5-6 and keep his BB/9 btwn 2.3-2.7 or so. That’s nothing to sneeze at, frankly.
If he runs a HR/9 of 1.5, a K/9 of 5.5, and a BB/9 of 2.5 over 200 innings, we’re looking at 34 homers allowed, 56 walks, and 122 strikeouts. Plug that into the formula and we get a FIP of 5.03. That’s pretty much replacement level for a pitcher in Safeco Field. We’re not really disagreeing on what we expect him to do, but rather how valuable that is. I’m not calling him replacement level as a disparagement – it’s just that there are a ton of pitchers like Baek who could put up that same line.
Baek seems to have done fine in short-term replacement of Felix. I think we’ll all be glad to have Felix back (hopefully) soon, and somewhere near his normal self.
Now, if only we had some scrub, oh say, Justin Lehr, Jorge Campillo, etc., who we had used instead of Weaver. Assuming this afternoon’s loss, if we would have had someone who could have guided us to a mediocre-5th-starter-ish 2-4 record in these 6 starts, we’d be 17-13. Not too shabby. We’re 15-9 in non-Weaver games, but of course we still have to pitch someone then.
If Baek’s xFIP goes up a bit to an expected level but his results (RA) stay the same (5.5ish), as Weaver’s replacement, I couldn’t be happier. Right now he’s basically our third pitcher. With Felix back he’ll be #4. It would be nice to say he was #5 but I find that hard to come to what with Ramirez and all.
Good point Dave, but again, it’s sort of a fine line. I agree it’s not huge, but if he’s 1.4 HR/9, K/9 of 5.7 and a BB/9 of 2.5, then we’re at 31 HRs and 56 walks and 127 Ks. Now I get a FIP of 4.8, which is starting to seem a bit better. Especially in Safeco.
Look, the distinction is clearly not a big one. I think a 4.8 FIP is within reach, and that at league min., that’s adding value to the club. I know replacement level is ‘better’ than we commonly give it credit for, so perhaps that’s part of the reason I bristle a bit at the whole ‘Baek is fungible’ stuff. I just think he’s better – not much, but some – than he’s commonly given credit for.
Dave, I’m wondering… how long do you think the org puts up with HoRam’s performance in the rotation? Weaver’s basically out the door and Baek is likely his replacement, but HoRam, while not as bad, hasn’t quite pitched passably himself. You think the org calls anyone up to replace him while putting him in the pen, or do they pull a Piniero and stick with him despite his struggles?
I think they stick with Ramirez. He’s younger, under team control beyond this year, and they honestly thought he was going to be their #3 starter when they picked him up this winter. Weaver was an experiment, so it’s easier for them to call that a failed project and move on than it is with HoRam.
I think he gets until at least the middle of June before they start talking about moving him out of the rotation. If they had a few more good internal options, the pressure might be stronger, but Jake Woods isn’t an improvement, and Feierabend isn’t ready, so he gets a longer leash.
This has been beat to death, but saying the Ms success is influenced by their opponents is not the same thing as saying the Ms success is because of their opponents. Objectivity is not the complete lack of anything negative (quite the contrary). I very much enjoy the deeper analysis beyond “that pitcher won, so he must be good!” that we usually get from mainstream sports sources.
#66. Yes, Baek is replacement level or slightly above, and I don’t think anybody here would say ‘oooh, let’s lock him up for a long bunch of years at a crazy high salary’. But on the other hand, while there are others available who could replace him, why would we bother wasting the time/energy/money/prospects to find and/or sign them when we have Baek already?
I sort of think we do a lot of that, as Bavasi runs around looking for the high risk high reward guys, many of whom have panned out to be high risk no reward, is it really worth all that effort if what we need in a #5 guy is sitting in Tacoma making league minimum if we bring him up?
From what I saw of Baek’s performance last night, he had one major league pitch that he was getting consistent missing swings on, and that was his changeup. His fastball is nothing, and his other secondary stuff is nothing, but his changeup sure works.
It’s not gorgeous, but it works.
A minor aside on Korean names- Koreans have their family name first (what we would call a last name) followed by their personal name, which is usually two one-syllable words. Traditionally, one of the syllables is shared amongst all males in the person’s family of his same generation, and the other would be unique to the person.
So his first name is Seung-Baek, and if you’re going by any sort of Korean rule there’s no correct way to get to either “Cha Baek” or “Baek.” It’s either Sueng-Baek, or Cha Seung-Baek, or Mr. Cha, or a nickname, which they apparently also do a lot.
I could be wrong – and I can’t find anything right now that backs this up – but I’m fairly sure Cha Seung Baek is the “Americanized” version of his name. It would actually be Baek (family) Cha Seung (given).
If I’m wrong, someone tell me, please.
>Baek (family) Cha Seung (given).
Josh is right.
Looking forward to seeing if Justin Lehr is part of the discussion of life after Weaver. I recall that he was one of your under-the-radar possibles for making a contribution. He seems to be doing reasonably well.