Game 39, Padres at Mariners
DMZ · May 20, 2007 at 12:57 pm · Filed Under Game Threads
Germano v Hernandez. Oh yeah.
Sunday lineup of curiosity:
CF-L Ichiro
DH-B Turbo
RF-R Guillen
1B-L Broussard
3B-R Beltre
SS-R Betancourt
2B-R Lopez
C-R Burke
LF-R The Ignitor
It’s interesting, at least.
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I may have missed it: Are Ibanez and Sexson injured/unwell? Also, good lord, that’s the wrong bench player in left field.
Has Hargrove ever considered Jojima at DH? I’m thinking that a day off means a day off…so probably not, but it could be a way to get his bat in the lineup while giving his knees a break for a few days.
#1:
Sexson is just plain sucking.
And you should have seen Broussard in LF.
Joe, I meant Ellison.
best defensive 3B in the game…wow…
does this mean we’re seeing a temporary sexson/broussard platoon situation, or is this just hargrove giving sexson the weekend off and seeing how he swings tomorrow?
Nice Beltre!
Is it me or does Felix look like he’s laboring a bit. It’s just between pitches body language… Perhaps I’m just paranoid now.
The Beltre taketh and the Beltre giveth.
Way to go Felix!
What a move!!
Second game in 2 days the Mariners are not on MLB Extra Innings.
We should probably count that pickoff throw in the Total Pitches count, it was thrown so quickly! Nice move.
Too fast for the cameras…but I guess that’s not too hard to do.
Anyone know why? Nice move Felix, and Broussard looked like an actual first baseman there.
I wonder if Sexson would’ve been able to tag him out. A little harder for a right-hander to make that tag.
so is that going to be a single or a triple?
I predict another 5-hit game for Ichiro, based on the fact that when I plugged my laptop in this morning, it was at 51% power.
i’ve got it the last two days on extra innings…but i’m in cali watching the SD broadcast…
Looks like a nice crowd today btw.
Now that Turbo refuses to work a count, he is officially 100% worthless in the DH spot.
so was ichiro just being selfish by not stealing because of his record? cause he’s a freaking thief since he lost the record…
Ichiro’s going crazy as of late!
Mo matter how much I fiddle with the volume control on my tv, I can’t make the huge sucking sound go away when Vidro comes up to bat.
to the well one too many time…
bakomariner – I do think that Ichiro was more tentative with the record. We all know he loves historical accomplishments.
Why try to take third there? Is he that sure neither of the next two guys can get a hit?
probably…contract year players often put themselves before the team…
smb – If recent games are any measure, then I’d say yes. It’s more important for him to be on 3rd with less than 2 out in that situation.
Hmm, looks like we need Sexson back in the lineup.
and for cryin out loud, get Morse up here
What position do they have Morse playing in the minors? Do they have him concentrating on LF?
Not sure, LF I think
i was looking at the rainiers roster the other day, and MM was listed as a SS…
Perfect place for him when Raul is out with “back spasms”
the king looks VERY mortal right now…
Maybe he was just trying to set up a double play?
I predict a K or a HR right here…
All Hail the King!
booyah!
Wow, it looks deserted at the Safe.
Kenji needs to go settle his man down. god knows Grover can’t do it…
can anyone explain to me the philosophy of the groundskeeper in making the warning track an asphalt-hard surface? i know it’s like grinded up brick or whatever, looks nice, but 2 ground-rule doubles in one inning is kind of ridiculous.
nice bender Felix. let’s get some runs!
Nice point by Blowers that the batters are up there looking for the fastball but are getting a lot of breaking balls. 30 pitches through 2 projects to a six inning outing.
His breaking stuff is looking good today.
No one can hit his off speed stuff.
Morse is still striking out too much, but aside from that his numbers look good in Tacoma. Bottom line is he can hit major league pitching, and Boom Boom can’t.
42
At least Hargrove knows who is catching today.
erp. Burke-san.
42- burke is catching…
The mlb.com pitching data is awesome stuff. Just wish there was a way to turn the raw numbers into something quantifiable.
That last Felix pitch was an 86 MPH curveball that broke 14.5 inches.
That sucks.
heads-up play, Beltre. nothing like helping the other team get you out.
12 – May be something to do with the game being on KSTW, not on FSN.
ARGH! at the running fools!
i think that all the extra inning games are from the fox sports channels…when they don’t show them, they aren’t there…
who is Boom Boom?
Sexson? he doesn’t look like he can hit major league pitching these days
good think beltre got out…yuni would have hit into an inning ending DP…
JoLo~!
KSTW = closed-circuit tv in the eyes of MLB.
thanks greene
now what will willie b do?
i’m guessing boom boom is wee willie bloomquist
hard track, mud-soft infield.
Wow, that little hit may have really helped the M’s if it allows them to get Beltre’s finger cleaned up.
55 – I believe ‘Boom-Boom’ is one of Willie Bloomquist’s many endearing nicknames.
so with boom boom playing the outfield, what was the point of trading for ellison?
damn, Felix is leaving a few up today.
Still not quite the good Felix…
LOL! at Rizz explaining to this poor girl why her favorite player, Richie Sexson, isn’t out there today.
“Well, honey, Richie’s helping his team hold down the bench.”
thats right… Willie boom boom… what a frigin joke
They are just sitting on his fastball.
65
To complete the liquidation of our Aussie projects.
Maybe we can get one of the ball girls to pinch hit for princess william next time around.
Nice out pitch by felix.
Is he throwing his 2 seamer much today? I’m not proficient enough in telling different pitches, but it looks like he’s not throwing it at all.
Juneau – that is hilarious. I wish I could’ve heard him say it.
nice framing by Burke.
Dylan- I thought I saw one at 92 mph… I could be wrong though.
he may not be all the way back… but he’s still the best on our staff
Even when Felix is struggling a tad, he has 6 SO’s in 3 innings.
Nice strikeout finally on Cameron … but he had been struck out several pitches earlier, it just wasn’t called. So many pitches …
fastball?
guess it wasn’t fast enough.
Randy Johnson is now only 23 K’s away from passing Clemens for 2nd all-time. I can’t wait until that happens.
My god, Rizz is still tormenting this child, the Dairy Queen Junior Broadcaster. (?) Now he’s up to, what’s your favorite part of coming out to Safeco? The Moose, naturally.
She’s never going to escape this booth; another hit.
jeez, does Kenji really need a day off when your young staff ace is making his second start back?
The control’s not all there. He went on the DL as Pedro and came back Nolan Ryan.
this could get ugly…
hey, the pitching coach! thought maybe he had the day off too.
Kids are cute and all, but these interviews are always terrible and awkward. Could the point be to corner someone who isn’t old enough to know that Richie is killing us?
kenji always has the day off after a night game…
That home plate ump may blow out a tonsil before this is over.
This Felix looks awfully similar to the Felix we saw for most of last year.
88: they must be laughing at that back in Japan, where he’d have to do 1,000 burpies in between night-day starts.
My mistake, Randy is only 13 Ks behind Clemens.
The Padres have put the ball in play a total of 8 times and 6 of those have been hits. Regression to the mean folks.
Cammy would have got- oh wait, he did.
Agree completely w/lemonverbena. Johjima should be catching every one of Felix’s games, unless he’s out to injury, and he should especially be there for his second start back. If Kenji needed a rest, give it to him on Saturday. 2 wild pitches, dropped balls on framed pitches…just another example of the M’s putting their guys in positions to fail. But I’ve thrown my hands up with Hargrove long ago…
2006:
Rivera should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2007:
Johjima should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2008-10:
Clement should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2011:
Posada should be catching every one of Felix’s games
etc.
96: can’t we just live in the moment? i’m still trying to enjoy Ichiro’s last season in Mariner blue.
So much for him being a groundball pitcher this year.
Ichiro will be making some awesome catches for Felix in 2011.
2006:
Rivera should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2007:
Johjima should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2008-10:
Clement should be catching every one of Felix’s games
2011:
Posada should be catching every one of Felix’s games
Never:
Jamie Burke should be catching Felix’s games
I’m not watching the game… what’s a “Runner’s Fielder’s Choice”? Is that caught tagging up, or overrunning the base?
Just as a point of interest, if a player slides into a base, beats the tag, then leaves the base and is tagged, can they be credited with a stolen base?
Matt Vasgersian (Padres play-by-play) lobbying for Dave Niehaus HOF consideration. opening day pitches over former Speaker of the House’s heads notwithstanding, i completely agree.
Never:
Jamie Burke should be catching Felix’s games
And one year ago today….
Never:
Kenji Johjima should be catching Felix’s games
Felix…this is not boding well for the M’s or my fantasy team.
Did it seem like Guillen took a bad route to that ball?
Good K there, Felix, give us another one!
OK, who do I get to blame for falling further behind in the fantasy league? Can someone do percentages on exactly whose fault this is? Is this still a “rust” problem?
Safeco warning track: ground-up superballs.
The only way to win fantasy baseball is not to play.
he doesn’t look sharp…missing spots…rust could be the excuse…which i’m sure grover will use…
lemon- if it wasn’t for that last ground rule double Cameron would’ve scored easily.
there’s the Kouz we know and love!
I wish the Ms cheer for this game wasn’t “3 on, so what?”
OH YEAH! /koolaid
All Hail King Felix! We owe him a couple runs right now…
hey, the hard track has helped a couple of times, no doubt. i just didn’t know if it was a strategic thing or strictly aesthetic.
yeah boy! that’s 100-plus pitches. is he done?
Felikkkkkkkkks!
Felix’ best pitch of the game was also his last pitch. That was awesome.
109 — Not true. I’m in the top 1% out of over 100,000 people which is great. I just want to stay at the top of my league where I was until last week when some jackass who has Barry Bonds (!) on his team overtook me and has stayed there ever since. On principle alone, I have to beat anyone who sells their soul to the devil and puts Bonds on their team.
Now Felix has struck out 8 which is 24 pts. alone right there.
Correction: the King has struck out 9 and that’s 27 pts. alone right there. I hope the King is back in the building to stay now…
The only way to win fantasy baseball is not to play.
First ever Wargames reference in a USSM game thread?
Mariners Train Car => Mariners Lame Car
No, Biggio/Bagwell/Bell/Berkman were the Killer B’s.
Burke and Bloomquist are the Bees In Colony Collapse Syndrome.
122… don’t forget Batista!
122 don’t forget Beltran for 2 or 3 months
Am I the only one who the Ump is irritating the hell out of? If I was the catcher with him screaming in my ear all day I’d go crazy.
125 — heh heh heh. And he’s one of those umps who doesn’t actually say “Strike!”…he just makes a random yelly noise.
Felix’s fantasy score: 23 pts. unless he gets the loss in which case it will be 8 pts. This will not help me gain any ground against Bonds-Soul-Seller.
127
You mean Good-Drafter?
So any possiblity to converting White into a starter? Kid sure has looked good in his last couple outings.
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee’s not that good. As bullpen-filler, he’s got his uses, but he’s just not that good.
Heath Bell is a hefty lad.
Yay! DMZ is here to provide actual commentary. Carry on, DMZ. Carry on.
Blowers should go over the top and do a total sell job for his kid… “He’s about four-ten already, good pitch recognition, we have some prep schools offering him athletic scholarships but no decision’s been made yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet…”
So the most disturbing commercial I’ve seen recently is the Domino’s Flavor Police Spot.
Black, heavily armed and armored police raids are funny? Being tear-gassed is a punch line?
I mean, even if you’re not concerned with the increasing militarization of police forces and (let’s say) general trends in law enforcement, people get shot in those things. That’s the setting for a pizza commercial?
Really?
i didn’t have my glasses on and thought he had hit lopez in the wrist.
visions of the ignitor starting a short stop for a month passed through my mind.
i guess the lesson is, i should wear my glasses.
Remember that one time when we scored a run? That was pretty fun.
Well, I do admit I chucled the first time I saw it when the tear gas canister crashed through the window.
Back in my day, the M’s scored runs all the time! These kids today, they don’t understand what it’s like to hit the home runs and the extrabase hits, they think the single is sooooo cooooool.
Hey DMZ, what the hell is going on with Yuni? 10 errors sure seems like a lot this early in the season for “the best shortstop prospect in a generation” as I heard one talking head call him.
127 – I see it as the baseball equivalent of drafting Terrell Owens. Yeah, you might win but will you really feel good about it at the end of the season? “I won with the biggest asshole in the sport!”
Plus, if Barry’s still stupid enough to be on the ‘roids, nobody’s winning fairly.
But I digress. Back on topic: It would be great to have White keep up the good stuff and get a 2-run homer in the 8th so we can bring in J.J. and take the series. Yay!
How many innings will White have pitched in this appearance plus his last? 9 so far?
Oh crap…Burke had an hour to get that throw to Lopez…
oh my god… Burke double-grips, and Sledge still out by 2 feet if Lopez catches that.
I have refused to buy Domino’s since they started to use gross-out ads to sell their food.
nice benny
The M’s should send him a thanks bouquet for sliding.
thanks for sliding into first, Cruz
Why would they use gross-out ads when their pizza serves just as well?
Take a seat, Cammy!
Thanks for that strike.
Speaking of commercials, if I see this Fox soccer channel one with the dude bouncing the ball on his head one more time, I swear to Christ someone is gonna die.
12: i got this answer regarding the Extra Innings question…
Over-the-air feeds aren’t carried on Extra Innings unless there’s a cable simulcast, so that’s why the Mariners’ feed isn’t on. The Padres are one of two teams (along with the Phillies) whose feeds aren’t normally made available (although supposedly DirecTV’s version of Extra Innings, not InDemand’s, supposedly has made them available at least once this year).
Why is Willie hitting here?
Pinch hit for Burke but not Willie… why?
At least Willie got to hit.
Ibanez must be unavailable. Or Hargrove dozed off in the dugout.
Hey, a baserunner! How quaint.
He’s got to be going…
Indeed, if you send in Johjima as a pinch hitter, do it for Bloomquist and then replace him with Ellison.
At least if Sexson hits he might draw a walk. Or hit one out.
Does Turbo know that the ball is supposed to leave the infield? Someone let him know that this isn’t shuffleboard.
$109 million sure don’t buy you much these days. blech
i’ve been slow to be anti-vidro like most of the posters here…i am on the wagon now…god he pisses me off…
Should have pinched for Vidro too. My disgust over Vidro’s play has manifested itself to pint that I now hate the guy as a person as well as a ballplayer. It just sucks only having 2 outs to work with when he comes up in an inning.
Mike Hargrove sucks. Vidro sucks. Willie sucks. The announcers suck for continually lauding the m’s pitchers today for stranding 83 baserunners. Hargrove should have pulled White two innings ago, he couldn’t throw strikes and it was a miracle he hasn’t given up eight runs already. It seems like every other padre batter has had a 2-0 or 3-0 count. How are we still in this game?!?
164: The answer is grit, of course.
“Hey fans, remember Edgar! Yeah, Edgar was great, wasn’t he? Check out this Edgar-related commercial! Now back to our regularly scheduled ineptness.”
Padres announcers looking at the remaining M’s on the bench, wondering why they weren’t pinch-hitting at the bottom of the order. well yeah.
hey, brick-wall Beltre! you’ve been missed.
you do NOT run on Willie ‘Cannon’ Ballgame.
The cannon of Bloomquist intimidates yet another victim.
run? ‘test the arm of’.
The more I watch this team, the more I’m amazed we’re not ten games under .500. I guess there’s something to be said for that. But really, Bavasi must be ashamed of himself for putting this team together, for giving up what he has to get it.
Oddly enough, Willie just saved us a run. If Ibanez had pinched hit and gone into left, they woulda scored right there. Of course, if Ibanez had hit, maybe we would have tied the game. Then again, probably not.
“Padres announcers looking at the remaining M’s on the bench, wondering why they weren’t pinch-hitting at the bottom of the order. well yeah.”
Please! That’s NL-style managing! We’re in the AL here! Let the bench rot!
Of course, if we tie this thing up and go 10 more innings, Hargrove will have the last laugh.
presenting your all-Washington relief staff.
Last night I was playing Baseball Mogul 2008 and due to injury and pinch hitting I actually had to go into the 9th inning with Willie Ballgame behind home plate. It was humiliating.
I got to watch Trevor Hoffman pitch in San Diego last year. It was rather awe-inspiring. Dude’s a legend. I’m jealous of all 12,000 people at Safeco today.
10 or more innings? you mean, they can play more than 9?
weird.
Calling all funk blasts!
Hoffman is very beatable these days…
168, 169: The Quaker gun of Bloomquist, that is
Let’s get a Broussard funk walk-off.
guillen single. come on grover – small ball. lets bunt the bitch over.
Ok, we bunt now right?
ben single. now can we bunt?
2-1 on Beltre, let him swing!
Bunting Beltre???????
the question is CAN beltre bunt..
I guess not…
let’s see sexson…
Totally wasted at-bat. Anyone else think Beltre was pissed at being asked to bunt?
Padres announcers: “Mariners have ONE sac bunt all year.”
say it ain’t so, Grover.
what an UNPRODUCTIVE ab.
That’s brilliant. 2-1 count and you waste a strike on a bunt.
I think Beltre was more pissed that he didn’t get the job done.
Come on J Lo!
trouble.
this is just stupid…
FUCK YOU, MIKE HARGROVE!
that was outside.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
game over. unacceptable.
What a crappy inning.
And that’s why you bunt. We would’ve had a sac fly if he could’ve got the bunt down.
What an absolutely ridiculous way to lose the game.
Well poop.
I try not to do this, generally, but
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCKKKKKKKKKK.
#202
Yeah, but don’t let Beltre get a hitters count and then decide to bunt.
202: You’re kidding, right? Why do you even ask a guy who is never asked to bunt to do exactly that in such a critical situation?
202 — You only bunt if you can bunt. How many times have you seen Beltre sac bunt in the 9th? I don’t know what Beltre’s b.a. is on 2-1 counts, but if he isn’t the guy we want driving in runs right there, then who? I’d rather not sacrifice the out in that situation. It’s a gut call, I guess.
beltre should have been bunting from the first pitch. what a bunch of bullshit. we’re not the yankees. we’re not going to hit a three run homer there you fucking moron grover.
207 –
why shouldnt adrian freaking beltre not be able to lay down a sac bunt? theres no excuse.
Hargrove is going to get steamrolled in Wrigley and whatever they’re calling Enron these days.
Hmmmm…Beltre/Yubet/Lopez
Disappointed, not surprised, but definitely disappointed.
I’m just amazed Trevor didn’t get them out on three pitches
Beltre should not have been bunting. Especially once he had a strike.
Knowing your players is key to managing and Beltre bunting was the absolute wrong thing to do.
210 — Then he should have been bunting from the first pitch — not after getting ahead in the count.
Someone tell Lopez, Hoffman has a change up
By the way, according to ESPN.com, Beltre is hitting .182 with a 2-1 count.
213
Sorry. But when it comes to “knowing” anything, that’s when you get into Grover’s weaknesses
210: Why should he even be asked to bunt in that situation? With nobody out and consecutive base hits off of Hoffman, I let him swing there.
With runners on 1st & 2nd he’s 0-8, and runners in scoring position he’s hitting .216. Yes he should’ve been bunting (preferably from the very first pitch I agree).
just because you’re a slugger doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ever be asked to bunt. that situation was crying out for it.
219
You could hit and run, but then it is Beltre batting, so never mind.
No, it wasn’t. The runner was in scoring position and you had 3 shots to get him in. Don’t get lulled by small sample sizes.
Beltre has 1 sacrifice in the last 4 seasons. 14 in his career, but most of those were his first 3 years.
Baseball 101. In that situation you bunt. Period. Beltre can’t bunt? Teach him. That’s why God invented Spring training and the off-season.
Funda-freaking-mentals
Perfect example of why Hargrove sucks.
And I’ll never understand why it’s harder for a guy to bunt than it is for him to take a full swing at a pitch. Anyway, in hindsight it probably should’ve been a hit and run on 2-1.
There is a higher run expectancy with 1st & 2nd and none out, than 2nd & 3rd with one out — with Beltre up, you do NOT bunt — and on top of that, Hargrove did it the worst possible way, not having him bunt immediately and then taking the bat out of his hands on the hitter’s count (2-1). You don’t bunt, you don’t hit-and-run — you let Beltre hit away
We shouldn’t lay all this on Beltre and Grover (I can’t believe I’m saying this).
Yubet and Lopez could’ve done SOMETHING too. Yubet’s first pitch swinging is the type of thing that is wrong with this team’s alleged “approach”
What Hargrove should have done was have Beltre hit a home run. Clearly it’s the best move in those circumstances. I don’t understand why he couldn’t do that. Ridiculous!
Beltre missed the home run sign.
You can feel disappointed as fans that the right approach did not work out — it is just so frustrating when Hargrove leads them into taking the wrong approach.
touche’. the ‘home run’ sign from 3rd base coach.
It isn’t that one at bat, it is the Ms constant inability to play sound, fundamental offensive baseball. Bad baserunning, missed signs, no patience, no ability to sacrifice. These things must be taught every day throught the organization and I see no evidence that they are.
[i]just because you’re a slugger doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ever be asked to bunt. that situation was crying out for it.[/i]
Yes it does, no it wasn’t.
Use the pointy brackets not the square brackets for formatting.
It is Hargrove’s inability to think and to prepare — how about if the Mariners worked on that all year. Runners at 1st & 2nd, none out, the hitter on your team who has the most home runs, and the most Extra Base Hits — you do NOT give him a bunt sign — you sure as hell do NOT give him the bunt sign on a 2-1 count. Bunting is not that easy when you don’t practice it and Beltre has no need to practice it because he should never be given the bunt sign. Run expectancy is not that hard to figure out….
It is if you don’t believe in it.
It isn’t that one at bat, it is the Ms constant inability to play sound, fundamental offensive baseball. Bad baserunning, missed signs, no patience, no ability to sacrifice. These things must be taught every day throught the organization and I see no evidence that they are.
I recall that Armstrong, Lincoln, et al are such firm believers in that, productive outs and other cornerstones of old time baseball. And they disdain the sabremetric approach.
Hm. If I didn’t know better, I’d say that the front office (and not just the GM) are a pack of incompetents….
Maybe Grover will be man enough to talk to the media this time (unlike the other night) and we’ll find out what was in that pea brain of his.
It is Hargrove’s inability to think and to prepare — how about if the Mariners worked on that all year. Runners at 1st & 2nd, none out, the hitter on your team who has the most home runs, and the most Extra Base Hits — you do NOT give him a bunt sign — you sure as hell do NOT give him the bunt sign on a 2-1 count.
He certainly did last year with Lopez, when he was leading the team in HRs and slugging….
238
Well this season should be the most obvious example that a non-sabremetric approach in a batting line up is a dumb approach
Well this season should be the most obvious example that a non-sabremetric approach in a batting line up is a dumb approach
Well, it is, but the yokels will probably point to the 7 run+ games and think that SOMETHING is there (of course, a lot of the inconsistency in offense is BECAUSE of their approach to the game…)
Everyone on your team should be able to bunt. My God, that’s little league stuff!
Able to maybe but that doesn’t mean it’s the right choice.
242
You know what’s sad? I could totally see them being that stupid & therefore justifying constructing this dumbass line up that rarely sees a middle reliever.
Usually, these are the pitchers we see: Starter-set up man-closer
I can’t believe I have to type this:
Bunting:
puts the winning run in scoring position
avoids the DP
allows the tying run to score on an infield out, a wild pitch/past ball, or a sac. fly.
OBVIOUSLY you bunt. Managers have been doing it for about 150 years.
and those who have have been wrong for 150 years. and the ones who have not done it have won more games.
Sometimes “new” thinking goes too far.
I’ll give you another one. Bunting creates the possibility that the defensive team will throw the ball away, allowing the tying run to score.
Sometimes “new” thinking goes too far.
You’re going to have to demonstrate it. Like, say, showing how it works out in the real world.
Throwing the ball away is a good thing to happen, but if it occurs once out of every 10,000 occurrences, then I think you can safely neglect it.
Bunting doesn’t always advance the runners but it almost always leads to an out.
I’d say it’s situational, too. I wouldn’t have Ichiro bunt, if Bloomquist was on deck.
Wow.. in a weeks time we have went from being one game out and having a chance to tie for division lead to being 5 games out.SEASON DONE
Bunting can lead to all the good things AuburnM suggests — it just does so at a slightly lower probability than all the good things that can happen if you hit away. And yes, it is situational — pitchers and Bloomquist should be bunting — Beltre (and Lopez) should not.
Mets vs. Yankees on ESPN … John Maine vs. “The Yankee Clippard,” making his major-league debut.
I’ve found the tables that show that, while a successful bunt with first-and-second and nobody out decreases (slightly…from 1.5 runs to 1.4) the amount of runs a team can expect to score in an inning, it increases (from 63% to 68%) the chances of scoring at least one run. With Broussard and Lopez coming up, and Hoffman on the mound, bunting isn’t an untenable decision…a successful bunt increases the chance of tying the game and getting past Hoffman to weaker relievers.
Man-on-second or first-and second, nobody out, and really-need-one-run is the only time that the numbers say a bunt is a good move. I’ve recently been won over from the never-ever-bunt school to this exception.
Of course, the guy has to do the job for the numbers to mean anything. And I don’t know why we waited until one strike to give the bunt sign. It decreased his chances of either tactic succeeding.
“Season over”
Um…no. As long as we continue to get decent pitching we will stay competitive. Hitting comes and goes, which is another reason to play more small ball and advance runners!
hey! I was sitting next to that guy!!!!
I was also at an angle where I could watch Glenn Hoffman stand up/sit down/stand up/pace as Trevor Hoffman was putting men on base in the 9th.
Pitching comes and goes, too.
Run expectation’s a poor metric here. Bunting the runner over increases the team’s chances to score one run, while reducing their chances to score two or more.
This is what Weaver was talking about.
#252: sorry but the torture doesn’t end that easily….
That’s pronounced “Waiver.”
#259
And you play for a tie at home.
Bunt!
Sparky Anderson and Earl Weaver wouldn’t have bunted…that’s good enough for me.
so, the Yankees might explore releasing Giambi because they just now heard him say that he had used?
isn’t that like the police captain in Casablanca who is shocked, shocked to discover there is gambling going on at Rick’s?
(”your winnings, sir.”)
Weaver would (and did) play for one run if one run would win the game.
cagy fellow, that Earl.
but 1 run wouldnt have in this case
Run expectation’s a poor metric here. Bunting the runner over increases the team’s chances to score one run, while reducing their chances to score two or more.
But in this case, one run would have tied the game. This is one of those rare cases where sac bunting makes sense. The fact it was Beltre up there is clouding the issue, but if it was Joe Average you’d be bunting with no outs in the ninth.
And again, when you’re down one in the final inning, you play to extend first, to win second. And criticize the run expectancy table all you want, but first and second, no out to second and third, two out is the lowest possible drop in expected runs where an out is created — .05 runs (according to the 2005 table).
This is the one situation where bunting makes the most sense. If I were the opposing team and this situation came up, I’d be playing the whole infield on the grass.
The other thing about showing bunt is that it can force a repositioning of the infield which can then benefit you if you do swing away (or have one or both of the runners steal). Or, conversely, if you make your move to bunt late (as Beltre was doing) you can catch the defenders flatfooted — particularly when there are men on so they’re covering bases. The trouble is, this probably works better against AL teams. NL teams get to practice fielding bunts each time the P comes to bat, which means they do it at least a couple of times a game.
And yeah, Beltre — everybody on the team — should be able to lay down a bunt. But we can’t rewind the tape to Spring Training or those fields in Santo Domingo or whatever, so the question in the game situation isn’t what if, but can he? And if the answer is “probably not” then you probably should be pursuing a different strategy, no matter what your philosophy of the game or tactical rules of thumb tell you. (And stats don’t help you much either, unless you have a fairly large sample of stats about outcomes when Adrian Beltre is bunting).
Beltre may be the Mariner least likely to hit a ground ball. I haven’t looked at all their numbers, but his G/F is less than one both of the last two years. He tends to hit the ball in the air.
If he hits it deep in the air, Ellison may well be able to tag and move up to 3rd. You would have to factor that into your decision tree along with his bunting ability — which none of us here know anything about other than that he has one sacrifice in the last 4 years.
Or you have Beltre show bunt early on the very first pitch, while also telling Ellison to steal 3rd. If you don’t think Beltre can actually put down the bunt, just have him show it and take the pitch — with a man on first the 3rd baseman is going to be covering the play, not his base, so even if the catcher comes up throwing they’re screwed. Now you have Ellison at 3rd, and Beltre is at worst 0-1, and can swing away to sacrifice him in.
But in this case, one run would have tied the game.
I’m not at all arguing that. I’m saying that when you evaluate strategy, run expectation works when your intent is to maximize run scoring, but not when you’re looking at probability of scoring a single run.
That’s called ‘Managing’ Joser and you haveto havea ‘Manager’ to perform ‘Managing’ operations
According to B-Pro, win expectancy in the 9th inning, home team batting, 1st and 2nd nobody out, down by one run (using 2006 figures) is .66667.
One out, men at 2nd and 3rd, win expectancy is .8571.
Interesting…..
I would have bunted with a good bunter. I would have bunted twice in a row with 2 good bunters. But I wouldn’t bunt with Beltre who is an inexperenced bunter because I’d prefer not to flush outs down the toilet. I suppose if it is successful you have Betancourt squeeze, because he and Lopez suck at hitting flyballs.
The point is, we had a much better shot with Beltre swinging away in a hitters’ count then we did with him trying to lay one down, especially with two crappy hitters on deck.
275-
The numbers from 2006 come from a ridiculously small sample size. In 2006, the 9th inning, home team batting, 1st and 2nd nobody out, down by one run situation came up only six times, while the one out, men at 2nd and 3rd situation only arose 7 times.
Your point is still valid, however. Using samples from 1977-2006, the runner and 1st and 2nd, one out situation yields a win expectancy of .514, while runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out has a win expectancy of .551. Still a better win expectancy, but not quite the jump that the 2006 numbers suggest.
Even though I still think that, with Beltre at the the plate, we have a much better chance to win if we let him swing away. And definitely don’t wait until he’s in a 2-1 count to bunt… that was just idiotic.
Wow, bunting is such a divisive issue!
I was at the game…everyone around me was like WTF when it came to 2-1 and they asked him to square around…just ridiculous because we all know that 2 strikes on Beltre usually doesn’t bode well..especially with Yubet and Lopez on deck…once Beltre was out, the game was over.
I thought Beltre’s reaction to getting out was being absolutely pissed at Hargrove..walked into the dugout past Hargrove and threw his helmet into the clubhouse area and continued walking…I just thought Hargrove screwed our chances by waiting until a 2-1 pitch.
And that crowd was pretty good today…they were really pumped up for a rally and it was fun…we were able to quell all those little-leaguers from trying to get the wave going…as Mariner fans they need to get used to dissapointment
http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html
Bottom 9, down by a run, runners at 1st and 2nd with no out, the home team has a .516 Win Expectancy.
Bottom 9, down by a run, runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out, the home team has a .540 Win Expectancy.
So, yes, a successful bunt in that situation increases the M’s chances of winning the game. But not dramatically – only by about 2.5%, and that’s assuming the bunt works.
Basically, this one’s a coin toss – Hargrove’s not a moron for bunting and he’s not a moron for not bunting. Either call there is defendable.
However, waiting until Beltre got into a hitters count and then asking him to bunt is just ridiculously stupid. Hargrove took a situation with a choice between two correct answers and went with C) none of the above, finding the only wrong answer in the entire spectrum of possibilities.
That’s pretty remarkable.
Dave that was exactly the point I think most intelligent baseball fans are arguing. Bunting may have been the right idea, but not on the 2-1 count.
I also think that the increase in Win Expectancy can be somewhat negated by what 2 players are coming up to bat. With Sexson and Ibanez on the bench we basically had two of our worst regulars up at next. Thus, Beltre may have been our best chance.
Leave it to Hargrove to find someway to make the wrong call.
it shouldn’t have to be pointed out, but everyone is belaboring the argument that he shouldn’t have bunted at all are forgetting that he still had the bat in his hands with two strikes. Grover saw how bad his bunt attempt was at 2-1, didn’t risk him fouling out on another bunt attempt, then Beltre swung away and popped up. that he was so desperately hamstrung with a second strike on the bunt attempt doesn’t absolve him of getting the job done when he does swing away.
this wasn’t a managerial fuck-up, it was a player not executing.