Ichiro The Underrated
If you’ve read any of the comment threads lately, you know there’s a significant portion of the fan base that wants the Mariners to trade Ichiro this summer before he becomes a free agent. Tacoma News Tribune columnist John McGrath has been beating this drum for years. And last night, Geoff Baker threw out the following comments on his blog:
To settle a debate starting up in the previous post’s comments thread, I will not be re-evaluating my stance on Ichiro anytime soon. I like him at his current contract numbers, but not at what they will likely inflate to next season. He is having a great May, no doubt, but was invisible through too much of April. He has to do more than go on a great three-week run to change my mind. That’s a lot of coin he’s looking for. This is a .500 team (after tonight) he’s playing on. Maybe if he helps lead them to the postseason the way Shannon Stewart did the Minnesota Twins a couple of years back (or the way Ichiro did it in 2001) then I’ll start believing. But right now, for $15 million to $20 million, I don’t think he brings enough. Even with his stellar defense. That .800 OPS is not the same as some of those other center fielders bring in the power and RBI departments. Speed is his big threat and I still think he has to use it more.
I think a large and growing part of the Mariner fanbase agrees with Geoff on this. When the conversation of Ichiro comes up in a crowd, invariably, half of them will talk about his unwillingness to be a leader, his lack of power, the frustrating slumps he goes into, his selection of when to steal bases, and his lower OPS compared to other players who are considered stars. There are a lot of people who view Ichiro as a good-but-not-great player, a uniquely talented singles hitter who doesn’t do enough other things to help a team win. I’m betting that a lot of you guys reading this post feel that way.
In fact, I think this viewpoint has become so commonly accepted among fans that Ichiro is now one of the most underrated players in baseball. I’m not one who thought he was really the MVP in his 2001 season where the baseball writers went nuts over the guy, and I spent his first few years in Seattle calling him overrated. Now, the pendulum has swung too far the other. Ichiro is now better than people believe.
Skeptical? Name the center fielders in baseball you’d rather have than Ichiro.
Grady Sizemore.
Carlos Beltran.
That’s it. That’s my list. You might have been able to make a case for Andruw Jones before this year began, but if you’re worried about Ichiro declining as he ages, you should be frightened by what has happened to Andruw this year, hitting .216 and striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. Vernon Wells continues to settle in as a productive non-star with his age 27 season of last year looking more and more like a career year. Torii Hunter, likewise, is an above average player who simply isn’t in Ichiro’s league.
Ichiro is pretty clearly the third best center fielder in baseball, and there’s a pretty big gap between him and whoever you think #4 might be. The third best player in the game at an up the middle position, and people aren’t convinced that he’s really a great player?
Let’s look at those knocks against him again.
Career .813 OPS is underwhelming.
An .813 OPS while playing half your games in Safeco Field is a lot more valuable than an .813 OPS in other parks. The average OPS for a player in Ichiro’s context would be .746, meaning he’s been 19 percent better than the league average hitter during his time in Seattle. His OPS+ of 119, for comparison, is higher than Andruw Jones’ career mark (117). Johnny Damon has exactly one season where he posted an OPS+ of higher than 119 – that was 120, last year. His career mark is 104. Vernon Wells – 112. Torii Hunter – 104.
OPS also ignores two other things that are quite valuable parts of Ichiro’s game – baserunning and health. Ichiro’s among the very best baserunners in the game, adding 4 to 5 runs a year just with his legs. It might seem like a minor deal, but it separates him even further from the pack.
But health is the big key here. In his 6 1/2 years in Seattle, Ichiro has played in 999 of a possible 1,014 games. He’s played 98.5% of all Mariner games since he joined the team. He’s the most durable player going today, a guy who simply does not get hurt thanks to his insane stretching routines. He doesn’t take days off due to back spasms. His hamstrings don’t tighten up. He just doesn’t get hurt. He shows up to the park, every day, and plays at 100%.
No rate statistic, one that boils everything down to production per at-bat, is going to properly value Ichiro’s remarkable endurance. Not only does he play at a high level, but he plays every single day.
He doesn’t run enough.
Last year, Ichiro stole 45 bases and was caught twice. If you want him to run more, what you’re really saying is you want him to get thrown out more. Ichiro understands better than anyone watching at home when the probabilties of him taking the bag are in his favor. He could be a more aggressive basestealer, picking up 60-70 steals a year if he ran more often. Jose Reyes stole 64 bases last year, for instance, but it took him 81 tries to do it. Ichiro was 45 for 47. Are those 19 extra steals worth 15 extra outs? No way.
Ichiro doesn’t run as often as other basestealers. And that is why he gets thrown out at a far reduced rate, making his baserunning even more valuable than if he ran like a wreckless maniac. Ichiro’s one of the two or three best baserunners in baseball today. Complaining about how he handles himself once he gets on first base is like complaining about Albert Pujols’ home run trot.
He’s not a leader – He only cares about himself and his numbers – He’s aloof.
Pick your criticism of Ichiro’s personality, because there are certianly enough to go around. It’s no secret that most of the guys who cover the Mariners on a daily basis don’t like Ichiro. He doesn’t give good interviews even though he clearly speaks very good English, the quotes come through a translator and often don’t make a lot of sense, he dresses funny, he does his own pre-game routine, and he’s nothing like the stereotypical caucasion “leader” guy who calls team meetings, pumps his fist when the team wins, and gives quotes that makes the media’s job easy.
But you know what? There’s simply no evidence – none, whatsoever – that Ichiro’s unique personality has a negative effect on his teammates performance. He was just as quirky from 2001 to 2003 when the Mariners were winning 90+ games a year. Now that he’s surrounded by bad players instead of good players, it’s apparently his fault for not turning himself into an American Leader and making Horacio Ramirez not suck at pitching.
Give me a break. Every negative thing that fans believe about Ichiro’s personality is the direct result of an article written by a member of the media. We’re supposed to not like Ichiro because they don’t like Ichiro.
I’m a Mariner fan, not a beat writer fan. I don’t particularly care if Ichiro is a good quote or not. And I’m not going to let the personal views of a few 50-year-old white men color my opinion of Ichiro’s value to the team. He’s a great player, and the fact that he’s not beatwriter friendly doesn’t change that at all.
Ichiro is one of the very best players in the game. He’s a true star, a guy who is worth 5 wins a year over an average center fielder. He’s nearly impossible to replace, and he’s the main reason the Mariners are a .500 team despite some pretty bad teammates.
He’s going to be paid like a star this winter because he is a star. He’s an elite player at a premium position who never gets hurt and shows no signs of aging. The knocks on him are vastly overstated, and it’s pretty remarkable that we’ve come so far that we now have to write a post about how underrated Ichiro is among Mariner fans. But he is, and he shouldn’t be.
Also, we’re going to ask you to refrain from turning comment threads into sounding boards for your personal trade suggestions. It’s just not good content, and we’ll be proactive about deleting comments that head in that direction.
I’m really not sure. You have to find hitters who have had 6+ years of consecutive 200+ hits seasons. Wade Boggs and Willie Keeler are the only two.
I like the Boggs comparison, though Ichiro’s glove is far better.
Here’s one: Dunn’s #1 comparable is Ron Kittle. Who would you rather sign a 5/75 deal with for 2008: Kittle at 27, or Boggs at 33?
If you don’t like that, how about Jim Gentile at 27 vs. Wade Boggs at 33?
Given Bavasi’s trading “skills”, doesn’t it scare the hell out of you to think he could be considering trading Ichiro before the deadline? Great post, but in addition to arguably the 3rd best center fielder in the bigs, how about his value as a leadoff hitter? How many leadoff hitters would you rather have than Ichiro? And who on this hacking team would be the choice to succeed him if he was traded?
I think the M’s have a lot of problems to address, but Ichiro certainly isn’t one of them.
The only reason to trade Ichiro is if the Mariners have decided they can’t/won’t sign him, I can easily envision the possibility that the guy just doesn’t want to play for these front office clowns and/or Hargrove any more and simply decides to move on to a contender.
I can also envision a scenario where the M’s simply say they can’t afford to sign him.
In either case, I’d rather see some prospects come back in trade than hope for a good return via the draft. I’m not hopeful that Bavasi et al. can make the most of either scenario, however.
My only beef with Ichiro is his OBP. For a guy who hits the way he does to have such a low walk rate is really inexcusable. If he ever hits .400 it will be because he walks more, not because he gets more hits.
You build great team by collecting and retaining superstars, not by leveraging them for role players.
I think Ichiro’s power will go up as his career goes on…He destroys BP. He can hit as many homers as anyone in bp…the true sluggers hit it much further but he can pepper balls just over the fence in right.
In addition to Beltran and Sizemore, who are clearly better, I think you could make a fair argument for the following center fielders as equal to Ichiro:
Chris Young
Vernon Wells
Andruw Jones
Hunter Pence
Torii Hunter
Curtis Granderson
Carl Crawford
BJ Upton
It isn’t worth quibbling over details. All these guys clearly belong in the discussion, which means Ichiro is not quite a “superstar” based on talent alone, at least as I would define the term. I agree Ichiro is underrated in some circles, primarily I think because (a) systems like PECOTA don’t understand him; and (b) his consistent health is not given adequate weight. That said, based on his production alone, I don’t think I’d give him $20M.
#156, I don’t think any of those guys are in Ichiro’s class right now. Jones was, but not any more. They all either lack the bat or the glove, or in most cases both. Wells has two seasons that even compare to Ichiro offensively (and is showing some regression this year), Upton is not a CF. Crawford is overrated offensively (sorry, he is). Granderson can’t hit, at all. Torii Hunter, I mean, come-on, I know he’s hot this year, ever heard of small sample size? I’m not sure about Hunter Pence or Chris Young yet, but they’re not Ichiro! at this point.
OK, for those who think trading him would be a good idea, let’s take a look at Bill Bavasi’s trading record during his term as M’s GM. There have been 29 trades made by Mr. Bavasi, many of them for minor or role players. Here are the trades involving starters or significant pitchers during this time:
Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago/Juan Gonzalez (a minor leaguer, not Juan gone)
Freddy Garcia/Ben Davis for Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo.
Jamie Moyer for Andrew Barb, Andrew Baldwin
Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert, Yorvit Torrealba
Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez
Eddie Guardado for Travis Chick
Bret Boone for a PTBNL, and I don’t see any record that we received one.
Is this a man that you want to see in charge of getting market value for our best player?
156-
You DID read the part where Dave compared Ichiro’s park-adjusted OPS to Wells, Jones and Hunter, right- and it’s BETTER?
Just because Ichiro doesn’t have 25-30 HR power doesn’t mean he doesn’t have “production”. The problem with Ichiro is now that we expect outfielders to hit 30 home runs as a matter of course, we don’t know how to evaluate someone who’s got a different game that’s MORE valuable than that.
To be fair, the only bad trades of the ones you mentioned where the Carlos Guillen and Rafael Soriano Trades. Boone was done, Guardado was done, Terrealba was a decent pick-up and Foppert was a worthwhile reclamation project at the time, nobody could have seen Reed, Morse, AND Olivo all turning out the way they did. Moyer is basically done too.
Yah.
Ichiro is not Junior.
(Come to think of it, I remember some fans getting on Cameron for striking out too much. Never mind the decent to good OBP; it was all about striking out).
In addition to Beltran and Sizemore, who are clearly better, I think you could make a fair argument for the following center fielders as equal to Ichiro:
No, you can’t. Wells/Hunter/Jones/Crawford don’t have a case. They just don’t.
One or two of Young/Pence/Granderson/Upton might be better than Ichiro in 2-3 years, but they certainly aren’t now. If you’re trying to make a list of center fielders with potential, you might as well throw Fernando Martinez, Justin Upton, and Cameron Maybin into the mix.
But to suggest that a guy like Hunter Pence or Chris Young is Ichiro’s equal today is laughable.
hehe, I just read “Terrealba”. I thought I spelled that right.
Well? Where’s the argument? Y’all can’t leave us hanging…
I certainly agree you could make an argument; it’s just that it’s a pretty poor one if you can’t support it with anything.
#157, I said I didn’t want to quibble, because it’s way too much effort to write down all the numbers for someone who clearly doesn’t have much invested in the conversation. Granderson can’t hit at all? He has a .925 OPS so far this year and he’s 25 years old. Crawford may have been overrated offensively in the past but he’s also just 25 and has an OPS this year of .850. These are guys who are on the way up. They’re better than Ichiro now, and they’re on the way up.
Take a look at a reputable source’s projections for Chris Young or Pence. They project as roughly .850 OPS type players right now now, with good defense, and they’re in their low 20’s.
Upton played CF today.
As to the older guys I mentioned, they’re ALL younger than Ichiro. If you want to believe that they’re all about to fall off a cliff, that’s fine, but Ichiro is 34 years old…
Granderson doesn’t have a case, I think, can’t hit lefties well enough. Of the other youngsters, odds are no more than one out of three would reach Ichiro’s level.
CCW—
Park adjustments, please?
And please note who Dave said were in Ichiro’s class.
You’re not doing a very good job of supporting your thesis.
Try harder. Start by addressing Dave’s arguments. Otherwise, you’re just blowing hot air without contributing anything.
This discussion, by your own terms, Dave, was in the context of whether to trade Ichiro, i.e. it is looking specifically at his value in the future, presumably over the life of a new contract that he would demand. I don’t see how you can ignore current major leaguers who project to be better than him as early as next year – Granderson, Upton, Young, Pence – in that discussion.
I’m not sure how park-adjusted OPS matters in Ichiro’s case. He’s a left-handed singles hitter. To the extent he has any power, it is over the short porch in right field. Safeco does not hurt him at all.
Please explain how Crawford, at 25 years old is not currently as valuable as Ichiro.
Finally, take a look at Nate Silver’s recent writings on the subject at Baseball Prospectus, up today, as well as his top 50 talents at Sports Illustrated. Whatever you think of Sheehan et al, Nate Silver is an excellent analyst, and he puts Wells, Crawford, Upton, Young, Jones, Beltran and Sizemore all ahead of Ichiro.
The point Dave’s making is it WOULD damage people we bring in- unless you have another LH singles hitter who won’t be hurt by Safeco. If you’re replacing Ichiro, you need to account for that.
Please explain how Crawford, at 25 years old is not currently as valuable as Ichiro.
I’ll swing at this: Ichiro’s OPS+’s the last 3 complete years (2004-2006) are better, AND the components that is the dominant component of OPS+, OBP, is considerably better (listed as Ichiro/Crawford:
2004: .414/.331
2005: .350/.331
2006: .370/.348
Thus Ichiro’s the better offensive player.
I would say the gap between Ichiro at 3 and whoever you put at 4 might be so large as Dave posits… but Ichiro’s on the way to a HOF career in LB, and he started out OLDER than Crawford is today, which is part of why he’s seriously underrated. Had he came up as a Mariner instead as an Orix Blue Wave, we wouldn’t be having this discussion, because he’d be somewhere around 2500-2700 hits, and we’d be discussing whether or not he’d have 4000 hits listed on his plaque in Cooperstown.
Arrgh: “I would say the gap between Ichiro at 3 and whoever you put at 4 might NOT be so large as Dave posits…”
Should have provided the links:
Nate Silver on Ichiro: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6270
Nate Silver’s top 50 at SI:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/05/07/bp.ufd.hm/index.html
EC – I agree with you that Ichiro has been better than Crawford over the past 3 years, but Crawford’s 25 and Ichiro’s 34. One is headed in one direction and one in the other and, if you take a look at their respective numbers this year, it looks to me like we might be at a crossroads where Crawford passes Ichiro.
Bottom line to me is that if I was picking a CF to be on my team for the next several years, assuming a zero salary, it would be Sizemore, then Beltran, and then… someone else. Ichiro would be in the discussion, but it isn’t at all clear to me that he’s #3.
Well, let’s look at Nate’s comment on Crawford.
“Crawford seems like he’s been around forever, having become a big league regular at age 20, but he’s still just 25, and may have some further room for power development. He’s also one of the more likely major leaguers to take a run at 3,000 hits, as he’s even-money to have cleared the 1,000-hit barrier by the end of this season.”
Ichiro cleared the 1000 hit barrier FASTER than Crawford, and still might clear 3000 MLB hits if he goes into his early 40’s like Gwynn… again, starting at age 27.
“Plus, he’s perhaps the best baserunner in the league…”
Ichiro says “Hi”.
“So there’s a ton to like here, but at the end of the day a .327 career OBP from a corner outfielder is too much to overlook”
Ichiro’s OBP? A lot higher.
So why would Ichiro rank BEHIND Crawford?
The BP article’s behind the pay firewall, BTW. Care to do some fair use quoting?
Bottom line to me is that if I was picking a CF to be on my team for the next several years, assuming a zero salary, it would be Sizemore, then Beltran, and then… someone else.
Well, let’s go to Dave’s quote here…
“He’s going to be paid like a star this winter because he is a star. He’s an elite player at a premium position who never gets hurt and shows no signs of aging.”
If Ichiro’s on the downside, where are the signs of aging that would make you blanch at a 4-5 year deal? Edgar was looking pretty darn good until he was pushing 40.
Ichiro wants to win, period. Money will not be an issue. He wants to get paid b/c it’s a sign of respect and Seattle will offer probably more then other teams. 20 mil a year for his talent is overpaying but with the marketing he brings in, he is worth it to the M’s. But he will still go else where. The arguments you made are valid but there are other glaring needs to be addressed on this team and he is our biggest chip right now. He plays for a manager he doesn’t like, a GM that stuck out in FA year after year, and an organization that seems lost. Even if big changes were made (firing manager and GM) why would he commit with so much uncertainty? Do you think this will be a contending team each year for the next 5 years? The Angels are good now and are loaded with prospects and the A’s are a smartly run orgization that always contends. Ichiro plays these teams 19 times a year so I’m sure he takes notes. This will be the deciding factor in his decision. If you believe we’re a WS team each year for the next 5 years, then you play it out. If there’s a deal with multiple solid major league prospects then I’d take it. Forget about the PR backlash.
Nate answered his own question. Looking at Crawford’s career numbers isn’t fair – he entered the league at age 20 and is now just 25. Here are Crawford’s splits the past three years. :
.301/.331/.469
.305/.348/.482
.295/.367/.483
There’s a trend there…
Here’s Nate’s full comments on Ichiro and Crawford, back to back:
# Ichiro Suzuki
The Case For: He has every tool except hitting for power, including some hidden ones like staying extremely healthy. The PECOTA forecast is pessimistic, but it’s been wrong before on Ichiro and it can be wrong again, especially as he has such an unusual skill set. Furthermore, his DT fielding scores don’t jibe with consensus opinion. He’s playing center field now and playing it well. He’s fun.
The Case Against: Ichiro would be the oldest player in the Top 50; both Ichiro and Derek Jeter are listed at 33, but Jeter is eight months younger. Though power is just one tool, it’s an awfully important one, especially for an outfielder. Any decline in reflexes could be disastrous, given his plate approach.
The Verdict: PECOTA is probably wrong on Ichiro. It wants to treat him as a glorified slap hitter along the lines of Lance Johnson, when Ichiro’s unparalleled bat control makes him completely unique and much more capable of sustaining higher batting averages. Still, a 37.1 Upside score is just a little too much ground to make up. If you add 5-7 points a year to his Upside score because PECOTA underrates his offense, another 5-7 points because the DTs underrate his defense, and another 3-5 for his baserunning, that would get him somewhere in the range of 100-130, which is perhaps good enough for Honorable Mention but not for the Top 50. If you’re willing to consider off-field value and marketing intangibles, you can make the case for Ichiro, but I still think this is likely to be one of the worst free agent signings of next winter.
# Carl Crawford
The Case For: He’s improved his game every year and is still just 25. Like Ichiro, he deserves some bonus points for baserunning above and beyond his stolen bases.
The Case Against: Crawford did get an Honorable Mention nod, so it’s not like we’re ignoring him completely. In fact, I wanted to find a spot for him in the Top 50, but he kept losing most of the battles when I asked myself whether I’d trade Player X for Crawford. As I mentioned in the SI.com piece, his lifetime OBP is just .329, which is a bit deceptive since he shouldn’t be punished for having reached the majors so young, but we’re still talking about a corner outfielder whose lifetime high in EqA is .293.
The Verdict: Defense is probably the key variable. One ambiguity with Crawford is that PECOTA is treating him as a left fielder, when you’d probably consider him for center if you were building a team from scratch; my gut says that I’d rather have his next six years than the next six years of Vernon Wells. Still, there is some evidence that his defense isn’t as good as it once was; he’s bulked up a bit, and both the DTs and PMR regarded him as no better than average in left last year. I’ll stick to my guns for now, but he’s probably moved into the honorary #51 slot, ready to take advantage of the next injury.
I like Ichiro’s qoutes.
Ichiro will probably walk at the end of th season. Games will be less enjoyable without him.
Um, hello? It’s not so much the adjustment on HIS numbers, but the adjustment on OTHER numbers, so we’re comparing apples to apples?
Better job of supporting your case, but also remember park effects can affect OBP as well (which may help or hurt Ichiro, but it shoud be taken into account).
Also, is your thinking taking defense into account?
Sorry, yeah, I’ll eat my hat, Granderson is hitting the crap out of the ball. I’ve always been under the impression he projects to be a above average centerfielder offensively, but not great. Crawford IS overrated, but I’ll admit he has been improving his OBP, don’t get me wrong, I’d LOVE to have Crawford in Left, and he’s a heck of a lot better than someone like Dunn, but not quite Ichiro!
I said I’d wait to see on Pence and Young. Both project to be good hitters, but they’re not yet.
Crawford was a really good defender a couple of years ago. Not so sure anymore. He’d at least be average CF now, I think, probably a little on the plus side.
Hunter, Wells, and Jones are inferior players. Granderson can’t hit left handed pitching. B.J. Upton has played 4 games in center field in his life. Carl Crawford doesn’t want to play center field. Hunter Pence has about 3 weeks of major league action. Chris Young is struggling to hit the ball in Arizona, where you or I could hit .250.
None of these guys can touch Ichiro right now. In two years – maybe. Not right now.
Dave,
Wonderful analysis. Its easy to be “up” on Ichiro right now considering that he has been all-world the last 3 weeks, but I agree completely that Ichiro is being criminally undervalued right now. If the season ended today, he would have the 2nd highest OBP of his career (obviously 2nd to 2004), while stealing bases and playing some of the best CF defense in the big leagues.
My question is this: Geoff says that at 15-20 million a year, Ichiro becomes too expensive a commodity to keep. I don’t buy that, when you combine Ichiro’s performance, health, and long-term consistency, as well as his extremely high marketing value, he is almost priceless. But in a practical way, how much money is too much money for Ichiro next December? 6/96? 8/144? If next offseason continues the trend of mind blowing contracts, and there are other serious bidders, where would you draw the line?
Keep in mind I’m talking about “the line” and not what a reasonable contract would be. I agree that 5/100 would be about what he’s worth. I just want to know how far beyond 100 would you go?
If the Rays called and offered me Crawford for Ichiro, straight up, I’d do the deal.
And move Crawford to left and call up Jones to play center.
Because Carl Crawford is NOT a CF.
I confess that I’ve only skimmed the comments, so forgive me if I’m echoing a previous post, but what are the odds that this is a subtle PR move on the part of the M’s F.O. to do some pre-emptive damage control for the inevitable moment when they lose Ichiro outright or trade him for a dozen used baseballs and a rosin bag? Are the beat writers so cozy with the F.0. that they’d participate in that? Are the Ms subtle enough to pull it off without the writers realizing it? Or have I just seen “Enemy of the State” and “Fahrenheit 911” too many times?
If the Rays called and offered me Crawford for Ichiro, straight up, I’d do the deal.
Obviously, but the contracts play a huge role in that.
I confess that I’ve only skimmed the comments, so forgive me if I’m echoing a previous post, but what are the odds that this is a subtle PR move on the part of the M’s F.O. to do some pre-emptive damage control for the inevitable moment when they lose Ichiro outright or trade him for a dozen used baseballs and a rosin bag? Are the beat writers so cozy with the F.0. that they’d participate in that? Are the Ms subtle enough to pull it off without the writers realizing it? Or have I just seen “Enemy of the State†and “Fahrenheit 911″ too many times?
No, this front office is NOT swift enough to pull this off. If they were, they’d be a lot shrewder at baseball operations wouldn’t need this kind of crap….
and they would have had to be planning to lose Ichiro! since about 2002 …
I read this on Buster Olney’s blog and laughed
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2882327&name=olney_buster&CMP=ILC-INHEAD
It’s about center fielders.
“Atlanta will need a center fielder, but under new ownership, the Braves aren’t going to spend big dollars.
So here’s some early speculation: There will be very heavy bidding on Cameron, because he’s going to be the cheapest option. In the end, he signs with Atlanta.
The Texas Rangers, looking for a long-term center field solution, will sign Hunter, a Texas guy.
That will leave Jones and Ichiro. I’m guessing that Ichiro winds up with the White Sox — he fits a lot of what they do, with their running and hitting and hitting-and-running — and that leaves Jones … in Seattle. We know the Mariners don’t shy away from Scott Boras clients, like Jones; they offered a huge deal to Barry Zito last offseason.
We shall see.”
First of all, we wouldn’t sign anybody if it came to that, because we’d just use Adam Jones. Second of all, if we had the money to sign Andruw Jones, we’d just sign Ichiro because Jones sucks and Ichiro is awesome.
First of all, we wouldn’t sign anybody if it came to that, because we’d just use Adam Jones. Second of all, if we had the money to sign Andruw Jones, we’d just sign Ichiro because Jones sucks and Ichiro is awesome.
I have several points:
1. Jones most certainly does not suck. Is he a bit overrated? Yes. But he does not suck.
2. I think Olney is premising his statement on the idea that we won’t be able to re-sign Ichiro. He’s not arguing that we’ll have our choice between the two.
3. Olney does bring up an interesing dynamic. Most just assume that because so many good CFs are going to be on the market next year, there is going to be a feeding frenzy. Not so. We’ll see how the increased supply will affect the demand for Ichiro. Will he actually be able to find greener ($) pastures elsewhere?
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Someone doesn’t read so well.
Also, we’re going to ask you to refrain from turning comment threads into sounding boards for your personal trade suggestions.
I’m always late to a posting I’d actually comment on…..
One of the first ‘Ichiro is overrated’ articles I ever read was the Rob Neyer article titled something like ‘Ichiro is no Sisler’. Man that article was dumb. Sisler hit .473,15hr at home (a hitters park) during his .407, 19hr year, while Ichiro got hits at SafeCo field. That was the time I lost any respect for that guy’s opinion…..
I also know that batting order is largely unimportant, but to the extent that it is, Ichiro is an absolutely awesome lead-off hitter – he gets a decent obp, and mostly through hits.
My hope is that other GMs think he is overrated, and he stays right here.
Speaking as a non M’s fan who only sees Suzuki infrequently I want to offer another rationale for his being underrated.
He has a batting style that is unappealing. I don’t mean his swing, itself. I mean the seeming (again, I say seeming. I admit that I only see him infrequently) reliance upon infield hits for his offensive contributions.
Yes, a grounder to short that is beaten out is a hit just the same as a line drive to center field. But it doesn’t seem as good. It simply doesn’t and it’s hard to get past that almost aesthetic judgement about his hits. One element of that is that he was *extremely* frustrating for opposing fans to watch his first year or two. It was maddening to watch 3 hoppers to short turned into hits with great frequency and not as an accident as it is for most every other player but seemingly by intention. It seemed almost dishonorable. How can this guy try to get hits in a way that for other players is only an accident? And it was hard not to have some of the antipathy for his success spill over into the judgement of him. I’ve pretty much gotten past it but I *strongly* disliked him his first few years in the league.