-
Buy the book
The Cheater's Guide to Baseball
"Derek Zumsteg should be ashamed to have such comprehensive knowledge of the history of cheating in baseball. Pete Rose gave me two to one odds this book would become a classic." -- Allen Barra, author of The Last Coach: A Life of Paul "Bear" Bryant
Ichiro The Underrated
If you’ve read any of the comment threads lately, you know there’s a significant portion of the fan base that wants the Mariners to trade Ichiro this summer before he becomes a free agent. Tacoma News Tribune columnist John McGrath has been beating this drum for years. And last night, Geoff Baker threw out the following comments on his blog:
To settle a debate starting up in the previous post’s comments thread, I will not be re-evaluating my stance on Ichiro anytime soon. I like him at his current contract numbers, but not at what they will likely inflate to next season. He is having a great May, no doubt, but was invisible through too much of April. He has to do more than go on a great three-week run to change my mind. That’s a lot of coin he’s looking for. This is a .500 team (after tonight) he’s playing on. Maybe if he helps lead them to the postseason the way Shannon Stewart did the Minnesota Twins a couple of years back (or the way Ichiro did it in 2001) then I’ll start believing. But right now, for $15 million to $20 million, I don’t think he brings enough. Even with his stellar defense. That .800 OPS is not the same as some of those other center fielders bring in the power and RBI departments. Speed is his big threat and I still think he has to use it more.
I think a large and growing part of the Mariner fanbase agrees with Geoff on this. When the conversation of Ichiro comes up in a crowd, invariably, half of them will talk about his unwillingness to be a leader, his lack of power, the frustrating slumps he goes into, his selection of when to steal bases, and his lower OPS compared to other players who are considered stars. There are a lot of people who view Ichiro as a good-but-not-great player, a uniquely talented singles hitter who doesn’t do enough other things to help a team win. I’m betting that a lot of you guys reading this post feel that way.
In fact, I think this viewpoint has become so commonly accepted among fans that Ichiro is now one of the most underrated players in baseball. I’m not one who thought he was really the MVP in his 2001 season where the baseball writers went nuts over the guy, and I spent his first few years in Seattle calling him overrated. Now, the pendulum has swung too far the other. Ichiro is now better than people believe.
Skeptical? Name the center fielders in baseball you’d rather have than Ichiro.
Grady Sizemore.
Carlos Beltran.
That’s it. That’s my list. You might have been able to make a case for Andruw Jones before this year began, but if you’re worried about Ichiro declining as he ages, you should be frightened by what has happened to Andruw this year, hitting .216 and striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. Vernon Wells continues to settle in as a productive non-star with his age 27 season of last year looking more and more like a career year. Torii Hunter, likewise, is an above average player who simply isn’t in Ichiro’s league.
Ichiro is pretty clearly the third best center fielder in baseball, and there’s a pretty big gap between him and whoever you think #4 might be. The third best player in the game at an up the middle position, and people aren’t convinced that he’s really a great player?
Let’s look at those knocks against him again.
Career .813 OPS is underwhelming.
An .813 OPS while playing half your games in Safeco Field is a lot more valuable than an .813 OPS in other parks. The average OPS for a player in Ichiro’s context would be .746, meaning he’s been 19 percent better than the league average hitter during his time in Seattle. His OPS+ of 119, for comparison, is higher than Andruw Jones’ career mark (117). Johnny Damon has exactly one season where he posted an OPS+ of higher than 119 - that was 120, last year. His career mark is 104. Vernon Wells - 112. Torii Hunter - 104.
OPS also ignores two other things that are quite valuable parts of Ichiro’s game - baserunning and health. Ichiro’s among the very best baserunners in the game, adding 4 to 5 runs a year just with his legs. It might seem like a minor deal, but it separates him even further from the pack.
But health is the big key here. In his 6 1/2 years in Seattle, Ichiro has played in 999 of a possible 1,014 games. He’s played 98.5% of all Mariner games since he joined the team. He’s the most durable player going today, a guy who simply does not get hurt thanks to his insane stretching routines. He doesn’t take days off due to back spasms. His hamstrings don’t tighten up. He just doesn’t get hurt. He shows up to the park, every day, and plays at 100%.
No rate statistic, one that boils everything down to production per at-bat, is going to properly value Ichiro’s remarkable endurance. Not only does he play at a high level, but he plays every single day.
He doesn’t run enough.
Last year, Ichiro stole 45 bases and was caught twice. If you want him to run more, what you’re really saying is you want him to get thrown out more. Ichiro understands better than anyone watching at home when the probabilties of him taking the bag are in his favor. He could be a more aggressive basestealer, picking up 60-70 steals a year if he ran more often. Jose Reyes stole 64 bases last year, for instance, but it took him 81 tries to do it. Ichiro was 45 for 47. Are those 19 extra steals worth 15 extra outs? No way.
Ichiro doesn’t run as often as other basestealers. And that is why he gets thrown out at a far reduced rate, making his baserunning even more valuable than if he ran like a wreckless maniac. Ichiro’s one of the two or three best baserunners in baseball today. Complaining about how he handles himself once he gets on first base is like complaining about Albert Pujols’ home run trot.
He’s not a leader - He only cares about himself and his numbers - He’s aloof.
Pick your criticism of Ichiro’s personality, because there are certianly enough to go around. It’s no secret that most of the guys who cover the Mariners on a daily basis don’t like Ichiro. He doesn’t give good interviews even though he clearly speaks very good English, the quotes come through a translator and often don’t make a lot of sense, he dresses funny, he does his own pre-game routine, and he’s nothing like the stereotypical caucasion “leader” guy who calls team meetings, pumps his fist when the team wins, and gives quotes that makes the media’s job easy.
But you know what? There’s simply no evidence - none, whatsoever - that Ichiro’s unique personality has a negative effect on his teammates performance. He was just as quirky from 2001 to 2003 when the Mariners were winning 90+ games a year. Now that he’s surrounded by bad players instead of good players, it’s apparently his fault for not turning himself into an American Leader and making Horacio Ramirez not suck at pitching.
Give me a break. Every negative thing that fans believe about Ichiro’s personality is the direct result of an article written by a member of the media. We’re supposed to not like Ichiro because they don’t like Ichiro.
I’m a Mariner fan, not a beat writer fan. I don’t particularly care if Ichiro is a good quote or not. And I’m not going to let the personal views of a few 50-year-old white men color my opinion of Ichiro’s value to the team. He’s a great player, and the fact that he’s not beatwriter friendly doesn’t change that at all.
Ichiro is one of the very best players in the game. He’s a true star, a guy who is worth 5 wins a year over an average center fielder. He’s nearly impossible to replace, and he’s the main reason the Mariners are a .500 team despite some pretty bad teammates.
He’s going to be paid like a star this winter because he is a star. He’s an elite player at a premium position who never gets hurt and shows no signs of aging. The knocks on him are vastly overstated, and it’s pretty remarkable that we’ve come so far that we now have to write a post about how underrated Ichiro is among Mariner fans. But he is, and he shouldn’t be.
Also, we’re going to ask you to refrain from turning comment threads into sounding boards for your personal trade suggestions. It’s just not good content, and we’ll be proactive about deleting comments that head in that direction.
Comments
194 Responses to “Ichiro The Underrated”
Good post. I feel the same way that you do. Nothing grates on me more than the idea that Ichiro needs to be a “leader,” whatever that means. If other players followed his “lead” in terms of conditioning and preparation, I would guess that they would play better.
Oh, Dave, would you say that Ichiro is currently the best defensive CF in the AL today? I know that he doesn’t dive, which makes people question him, but a recent website calculated that he was on pace to break some ancient record for putouts by a CF. By the way, I am glad that he doesn’t dive. It contributes to his health.
Agree to all of it. I think the way he does not pander to the media makes him a better leader/role model for the young players. They don’t need to be getting caught up in their media image.
Has there been any kind of mention about what kind of money and contract length he is looking for if the Mariners manage to stay in contention?
Nice Post. I have to say that a part of me is curious what we could possible get in return for Ichiro. But you’ve clearly made good points, especially durability which most teams can’t count on. Show him the money!
Thank you for giving me some basis for my continued hero-worship of Ichiro! Excellent post, but I do have one question. Given what you said about Ichiro being the third best CF in MLB, what kind of contract do you think he will get, deserve, and will the Mariners be a player?
Good post, Dave.
I especially like the point about stealing bases, but more importantly, his success rate while doing so.
Jose Reyes, as remarkable a talent as he is, is lauded for his SB total, when in fact, Ichiro’s numbers are much more efficient and beneficial to his squad.
That said, what can they do, aside from winning baseball games and contending, to keep #51 in the Pacific Northwest?
Absolutely agree with every word. (Except the part about HoRam sucking)
The grass is always greener and people never appreciate what they have until its gone. Ichiro is this generation’s Ty Cobb or Pete Rose.
Pay him. Sign him. NOW.
I would love to keep Ichiro here until he decides to hang it up, but if it turns out that he does want to go somewhere else at the end of the year, it would be nice to get something of value before he leaves. That said, I’d only support a trade if it was crystal clear that he was leaving.
I can’t disagree with anything here. My only question is will Ichiro be worth whatever it takes to sign him as he ages and his speed begins to decline? I’d like to have him back but that nags at me as does the allure of the potential return the M’s could get for him if they traded him. I guess for me, if they are a contending team I want Ichiro here, if they are in a rebuilding mode I would prefer they deal him and get young talent back in return.
I agree whole heartedly. Playing time is often forget when looking at rate stats. If Ichiro plays 162 games and another player plays 145 games, that’s 17 games of that aren’t being played by replacements. That’s huge on top of already good rate stats. I believe OPS underrates Ichiro! somewhat, since he gets a lot of his OBP from hits and not walks, there’s increased opportunitys to advance other runners. From what I’ve looked at Ichiro! is a 5 WAR player when you take everything into account, including playing time. That’s a 20 mil per player.
I’m not sure I agree with everything said here. I don’t feel Ichiro is underrated at all. Undervalued - maybe.
I think most fans recognize that he is among the elite players this era, but I also think they recognize you can’t spend a rediculous amount of money on one player. Ichiro is in excellent position to command a rediculously huge contract offered by the Yankees or the Rangers or some other team that thinks Ichiro is the answer. He could very well pull off an A-Rod type contract if he wants too. But baseball is a team sport, and if we have players in the system (Adam Jones) that could play up and play big, it might be considered prudent for the FO to spend money on our weaknesses - like starting pitching. I think the question is is upwards of $20 mil. too much to spend on one of the premier players in MLB?
Does Ichiro have a no trade clause in his contract?
How dramatic a drop in wins/runs would be caused by Adam Jones taking Ichiro’s spot in CF? Assuming Ichiro is going to get a 4-5 year deal at $15+ million, would the Mariners really be better during that span by keeping him than if they traded him for young, major league ready arms or bats and had an extra $60 million? It would mean keeping Ichiro at least through age 38, and its hard to imagine he’ll still be a superstar at that point (although with Ichiro who knows).
Dave,
Thanks for the post. Brings together everything I wanted to write back to Baker in response to his post, but I’m just too busy and didn’t have time.
Personally, I really began to get a vibe that many of the writers were singling out Ichiro after a game last year where he made a baserunning gaffe in a crucial situation. While it was right to point out ichiro’s mistake and it’s impact, the majority of the print coverage seemed excessively negative toward the point of vitriol towards Ichiro. What surprised me most was the way the press got on Ichiro for a rare baserunning mistake while they seemed unwilling to call consistent underperformers to the carpet last season.
Then, later in the year I had a long email exchange with a beat writer who wrote a negative piece about Ichiro and it confirmed for me what you stated above - that many of the writers don’t like him because he is difficult for them to work with.
“I think most fans recognize that he is among the elite players this era”
Actually, that was kind of the point of Baker’s post. He believes that Ichiro isn’t currently a player worthy of an elite contract. Nor does he feel he is as valuable to the M’s currently as Shannon Stewart was to the Twins “a couple years back.”
Thank you.
Good post, Dave.
You obviously were focused on contribution to the team on the field, and rightfully so, but we shouldn’t forget the other things he brings in terms of marketability.
He’s the main reason (all due respect to Joh) that the Japanese market is still into the Mariners. We have an ownership tie, to be sure, but do you think Japanese citizens will tune in to late (or early) games to watch an M’s game, or snatch up M’s apparrel or come to Mariners games in droves when visting the Pacific Northwest if the team doesn’t have an exciting Japanese interest story (and beloved hero) on the team?
A combination of the fact that Ichiro clearly helps the team win, helps infuse dollars into the team, and sets up exciting dramas like the one with Dice-K, all come together to advise signing him somewhere around the range you suggested. Budgets are created and stuck to around here, but in evaluating where that budget is going to be for a given year, the amount of revenue from all sources is certainly considered. We take a more than insignifcant double hit by losing Ichiro, in my view.
Going forward, I’d project Ichiro to be something like a 5 win player for 2008 and 2009, then a 4 win player in 2010, and a 3 win player in 2011, and a 2 win player in 2012. That’s compared to a replacement level player - Adam Jones should be better than replacement, but he could also be used in LF/RF, so the choice isn’t really Ichiro or Jones, since we can have both.
So, if you accept my win total projections, Ichiro is going to be something like a 19 win player over the next 5 years.
Teams were paying approximately $5 million per win this past offseason. That’s the going rate on the free market. Now, the free market is the worst place to acquire talent, since the price is so much higher per win than any other means, but we have to assume that it’s going to be around $5 million per win again this coming winter.
That makes Ichiro something like a $25 million player for next year - market value, not real value - and a $95 million player over the next 5 years.
I think that’s what we need to expect Ichiro to sign for - 5/100 or something close to it.
And yes, I’d give him 5/100.
Well done. I just don’t buy any of the negativity about Ichiro. I don’t believe that he should be defined by what he doesn’t do or who he isn’t. And I really am taken aback by the anti-Ichiro sentiment.
I think Ichiro is terrific. He is deserving of a large contract. How much and for how long is always a difficult thing to determine for every player, because it is based on negotiation with fluctuating bargaining position strengths. If Ichiro is willing to come back (an unknown at this point) and the M’s are sincerely interested in having him come back, then I expect that his deal going forward would not cripple the team. I fully expect the M’s will not get a “hometown discount”, but will overpay to some extent. But the M’s are loaded with money and I’d much rather see them overpay a bona fide talent like Ichiro than fill-in guys like Weaver, Vidro, Everett, Spiezio, etc.
Let’s face it. If Beltre and Sexson were producing commensurate with their contracts, the M’s would be a far better offensive team and would have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. It frustrates me that the failure to produce by others from whom so much is needed results in criticism of Ichiro, who simply continues to do what he does. Some critics, in response, would say that Ichiro’s skill set is just not worth having, especially at that high a price. I don’t agree.
Given your analysis, what do you think the M’s should do with Ichiro? Assuming you think he should be resigned, how much do you think the M’s should be willing to give him (and for how long)?
Ichiro is going to be 34 this year and derives a significant portion of his value from footspeed - this has to be a legitimate cause for concern at some level, right?
Complete list of all CF this year, sorted by OPS (Ichiro ranks 14th)
List of all CF qualified for the batting title, sorted by OPS (Ichiro ranks 7th of 25)
Ichiro is going to be 34 this year and derives a significant portion of his value from footspeed - this has to be a legitimate cause for concern at some level, right?
Guys with footspeed actually age better than slow guys.
Sorry, must of garbled that second link:
List of all CF qualified for the batting title, sorted by OPS (Ichiro ranks 7th of 25)
If you want Aaron Rowand or Ryan Church over Ichiro, be my guest.
In addition to all the reasons Dave states for keeping Ichiro! around, there is another (speculative) one that never gets discussed: Ichiro could become an insanely great manager when his playing days are over. I can’t think of anyone who has a better grasp of fundamentals and strategy than Ichiro! Would he be willing to manage? Can he motivate players? We don’t know now, but it’s worth a premium to find out.
Hardball beat me to the punch a little bit. This is less about how much Ichiro is worth right now. I don’t have much of an argument with the post and Ichiro’s current value. My concern is length of contract and how long he can maintain his value. A 4-6 year deal could be devastating, particularly since so much of his value is tied up in playing centerfield. While I would not be surprised if Ichiro’s skill set held up particularly well over the next 4 years, it would not take too much decline in his speed and batting average to turn a 5 year, $90-100 million contract into an albatross. Moreover, this has to be measured against the value that can be provided by Adam Jones next year and going forward. Assuming the Mariners sign Ichiro, at least one of Ichiro or Adam Jones will have to play a corner where their defensive skills will be less than optimized and where their respective bats are unlikely to be quite as far above league average for the position.
Just one nit to pick with the post… I do think Ichiro could steal more and add more value to the club. He is extremely selective and we should all be aware now that the positive value of a steal varies according to the situation. Without doing a play by play study, I can’t really estimate how valuable the 45 out 47 last year was, but I think it is fair to assume that waiting for the safest position to steal probably correlates some with a lesser value (or higher effective steal rate necessary to obtain value). I have little doubt, particularly with this lineup, that Ichiro could add another 15 steals in higher value situations without substracting from the value he provided last year.
The comparison to Reyes just doesn’t work. If we can assume Ichiro would go 45/47 in similar circumstances this year and he ran in an additional 25 chances with a lower rate of success, he’d still be 45 of 47 when he picked his spots. The question is whether he could succeed at a high enough rate in those 25 additional opportunities to justify running. Depending on the circumstances, a rate as low as 70% (or maybe lower with this lineup) would add value. 70% of 25 additional attempts would add about 16 more steals. In short, I do think that the criticism of Ichiro that he may not run enough may be true, but without looking at play-by-play information and factoring the risk of injury inherent in stealing bases, I can’t say I have a firm opinion at this point.
Why are you doing this without park adjustments? Is that not relevant to you?
I would offer Ichiro a progressive contract matched to the average of the highest 5 position players salaries.
The six ahead of Ichiro include Sizemore and Beltran, of course. They also include Torii Hunter, the current leader. The others are Curtis Granderson (good player, but requires a platoon mate), Aaron Rowand (over his head), and Ryan Church (what?).
Assuming the Mariners sign Ichiro, at least one of Ichiro or Adam Jones will have to play a corner where their defensive skills will be less than optimized and where their respective bats are unlikely to be quite as far above league average for the position.
I disagree. I’ve argued for years that LF is a premium defensive position for a team that plays half their games in Safeco Field. The air in LF knocks down a lot of long fly balls, and a left fielder with good range can turn a lot of those balls that would be extra base hits into outs. Randy Winn, for example, was extremely valuable to the Mariners as a premium defensive left fielder.
I would have no problem sticking Adam Jones and Ichiro side-by-side in LF/CF and watching balls hit into that gap get turned into outs.
I’m a big proponent for trading Ichiro. But it has nothing to do with his ability. I think the chances of him leaving are good enough to make it necessary to get as much as you can for him.
If the M’s are comfortable with a comp. or late-1st pick instead of one or two ML-ready prospects, then they should roll the dice.
And I do take into account the PR hit, Ichiro’s value on and off the field, etc. when I push for an Ichiro trade. Again, the risk is too high, in my opinion.
Thank you thank you thank you, Dave. Ichiro’s one of those guys who I will always feel priviliged to have seen play baseball so many times in person, and one of the guys whose numbers are only a part of the story — yes that’s a cliche, but really, how many guys can you say that about? I hope he ends his career a Mariner, he’s up there in Edgar/Griffey-land when it comes to Mariner mythology, and it will pain me if he leaves. He’s perfect for this city. I’m sure he’ll decline some as he approaches his mid to late-30s, but I bet he can be productive til he’s 45 if he wants.
Ichiro is so clearly the least of this team’s problems, on or off the field, that I’m taken aback by his critics. Ichiro is a cultural treasure who transcends stats, plain and simple. Don’t go, Ichiro!
How come no one had a problem with Edgar aging, or Bonds aging, but what Ichiro is just going to shrivel away die? My Goodness, the guy is in immaculate condition. And if his speed and defense fail, then we can always make him a #3,4 hitter and he can swing for the fences the way everyone says he does in batting practice.
Why are you doing this without park adjustments? Is that not relevant to you?
I’m just using the basic OPS yardstick because that’s what Baker used, and it’s easy to find and link to. If you can get a table grouped by position with adjustments, great, that’s more information.
For as much as I slam and loathe Howard Lincoln, the one thing I seriously, honestly believe him on is that the M’s badly want him to retire as a Mariner. The Mariners do not undervalue Ichiro in any way shape or form, financially.
If Ichiro leaves, it will not be because of money.
…is that the M’s badly want him to retire as a Mariner.
Just to make sure it’s absolutely clear (because I can see how this could be misinterpreted) — the “him” I was referring to was Ichiro, not Howard Lincoln. I can think of a couple people in the M’s org who would probably love to see Howard Lincoln retire as, say, an Oakland Athletic, or a LALALALA Angel…
I think the question is is upwards of $20 mil. too much to spend on one of the premier players in MLB?
There’s no way $20 million is too much to spend one one player. If Johan Santana was a free agent and willing to take a one year deal, I’d offer him $40 million. Seriously.
The whole idea of building a roster of evenly paid guys is bunk. The elite players are worth expontentially more than the rest of the team, and they should be paid like it.
I think a lot of the under valuing of Ichiro is from people not realizing how much harder it is to find a plus D good bat for CF than RF. If he had stayed in RF Ichiro would be over priced.
Sometimes I think fans in Seattle were so spoiled by Jr that it tainted their ability to appreciate merely good hitting CFers (see Cameron, Mike)
Well, whenever we pull up a list, I just think it’s very very important to note the park effects (that’s one of the things that makes baseball different from other sports). Its basic nature for stat fans, but people really do forget that parks will inflate or depress offensive numbers by a predictable amount.
Yuppers. Even by 20th Century and by this organization’s standards, they want his presence. If he wants to stay here, it’ll take a competitve offer. If he doesn’t want to stay here, I don’t think all they money in the Microsoft and Western Wireless vaults will make him stay.
“Complaining about how he handles himself once he gets on first base is like complaining about Albert Pujols home run trot.”
Quote of the year!!!
Ichiro makes catches look routine which Jr. and Cameron would have had to dive for. His first steps when the ball leaves the bat are like watching his first steps when he hits the ball. His instincts are unparalled.
How else do we get some young talent in trade, or pitching? If ichiro stays for 15-20 mil, and we are stuck with sexson, beltre, vidro, batista, washburn- how do we improve this year or next. 9m in salary relief from the weeve isnt getting us much in free agency next year. Do we just suck it up, and wait till 09 when sexson and vidro are gone to do anything significant? It just seems like we need to make some changes, and that could be one. If ichiro stays and so does all the other redic contracts, what do we do?
Yeah, I notice a lot of people are still thinking of him as a right fielder. The numbers they “want” out of him are corner outfield numbers.
I think #32 is on to something important here: Ichiro can make adjustments as he ages, and I think he will. From where I sit, I think Dave’s too pessimistic on Ichiro’s decline phase, because I expect Ichiro to change himself as a hitter over time, as his speed goes; I think we’ve already seen a sign of that this year. He has the eye, the plate awareness, the awareness of himself as a hitter, and the ability to drive the ball that he needs to shift his game from contact/speed to power/walks as he needs to in order to remain effective — and he strikes me as a man who will do whatever he needs to do in order to perform at his best. He’s clearly a fiercely proud man, not someone who needs to be motivated to do his best. All in all, if we know Ichiro’s going to leave, then maybe you deal him if you can get a better deal than the compensatory picks — but best would be for him to finish out his career here.
they need to pay him whatever it takes for as long as it takes…we need him to retire and go into the hall in an Ms hat…not only that, but i bet my buddy a case of heineken when ichiro signed his last contract that he’d retire a mariner…
How else do we get some young talent in trade, or pitching?
It is never a good idea to get rid of your best player to try to free up money to sign free agent pitching. Never.
I’m always stumped as to why having multiple OF’ers capable of playing CF is a BAD thing, and I also think it is not apparent that Jones won’t be able to hit well as a LF/RF. He’s hitting pretty well as a young player for his league in AAA.
He is a great player. He has taken care of himself and should have less of a dramatic skill level decline than some other players of his stature.
He also is a box office magnet. He is one player that people pay to see on this roster.
Losing him will cost more than just wins, it will cost at the gate.
Dave, I’m completely with you, but what about if Ichiro is only happy long-term in RF? If he doesn’t want to stick in center, is he still worth all that money?
I’m not sure how much park adjustments should be applied to Ichiro. I think the majority of Safeco’s adjustment is driven by suppression of XBH to left field - and thats not Ichiro’s game.
Gotta respectfully disagree with that one, awolfgang. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a CF in person with better instincts than Cameron had when he was patrolling Safeco. Ichiro has better pure footspeed, but Cameron could turn his back on the ball at the crack of the bat and wind up exactly where he needed to be. It was uncanny.
Now I’m getting all nostalgic for the Winn-Cameron-Ichiro OF defense. Those were the days…
Sometimes I think fans in Seattle were so spoiled by Jr that it tainted their ability to appreciate merely good hitting CFers (see Cameron, Mike)
Don’t know about that. Cameron was pretty well appreciated by the fans. Whether management could see past the batting average and strikeouts is more the issue there.
I also saw the article mentioned by #1, citing the PO record. Exactly how valuable do you think his defense is? Can this be put in terms of wins? or dollars?
so where do we go from here, with ichiro. Are you suggesting that we wouldnt get anything in trade…in addition to the salary relief? I would love to have ichi back, I just dont see how do we improve with all the other bad contracts?
That’s a somewhat fair point, but park adjustments A) adjust for his handedness, I think and B) also apply to other centerfielders, who get a boost…
He also is a box office magnet. He is one player that people pay to see on this roster.
Losing him will cost more than just wins, it will cost at the gate.
And we can’t overstate this enough. More than just ticket revenue, they’d lose relevance around the league. To paraphrase what I said yesterday on the Morsels, if you ask some random Yankees fan in Illinois to name even one player on the M’s, I’d be willing to be that it would be Ichiro, if they could even name one Mariner at all…
Losing that will hurt the Mariners much, much, much more than I think people realize.
I’m not sure how much park adjustments should be applied to Ichiro. I think the majority of Safeco’s adjustment is driven by suppression of XBH to left field - and thats not Ichiro’s game.
This would only matter if we were moving out of Safeco and trying to project his performance in another park. In terms of value, we still have to park adjust his numbers, because Safeco has a strong deflationary effect on run scoring.
Since there are less runs scored in Safeco games, the runs that he creates are going to be worth more than in a higher run scoring environment. And what we really care is about how much Ichiro is worth to the Mariners, and a lot less about how much he’d be worth playing in a higher run scoring environment.
I think that’s a very fair point. I think fans are overestimating what they’d get back in trade (and that would happen with the best of GMs…).
Ichiro will age very well. He is easily worth 20 million a year. He probably brings in 8 million a year in financial value before even involving his fantastic play. 7 years 144 million-sign it today!
Great post. It’s nice to see that the numbers really do back up what you feel they should, and that’s that Ichiro is a star.
As a fan, there is one reason I want to see him stay: excitement. You can always watch an M’s game knowing that one of the most awesome and unique players in baseball could do something really amazing, be it offensively or defensively. We’ve been lucky to have that here really since Griffey, despite the team being mediocre at times. With Jr., A-rod, Edgar, and now Ichiro, there was always at least one guy on this team that I would tune in just to see their at bat. If Ichiro leaves, all we have is a completely boring offensive team and a Felix day once or twice a week.
so where do we go from here, with ichiro.
You keep him and give him better teammates. This isn’t a roster construction post, though, so we’re not going to get into suggestions for acquisitions at other positions. This is an Ichiro-is-awesome post, and the thread is for discussion of Ichiro’s value.
Doncha think that this would have a small effect on agents signing here? Stars leaving their teams is not a good sign for prospective free agents, I would think….
I feel like it’s a question of weighing the relative value of 2 scenarios: Ichiro for $100mil/5y in center plus AJ in a corner spot, versus AJ in center for dirt cheap plus the booty we can get for Ichiro.
My biggest concern is that I have zero faith in the Mariner brass’ ability to assess one against the other, nor in their ability to obtain maximum value for Ichiro on the open market.
Ichiro is great, and probably worth 20 million. I guess I will look forward to 2 more years of ichiros 220 hits, and a bunch of inconsistent turds and poor picthing around him.
I also saw the article mentioned by #1, citing the PO record. Exactly how valuable do you think his defense is? Can this be put in terms of wins? or dollars?
I think Ichiro’s one of the better defensive CFs in the game, worth something like 10 runs a year over an average defensive CF. That’s worth about one win per year. But as much as I love the guy, he’s not Mike Cameron in his prime. The ‘02-’03 Cameron years were epic.
Regarding park-adjusting Ichiro, those are good points, but I think no has said that Ichiro doesn’t actually matter at all in this discussion, in a way. His replacement will have downward-park-adjusted numbers, so the fact that Ichiro’s numbers aren’t hurt by Safeco is just another dope thing about him.
Second 51. Cammy had the better defensive instincts in CF. Ichiro has better range though and his instincts are good.
I was firmly in the Ichiro is overrated camp when he was playing RF. I thought he should have been shifted to CF 2 years ago. Now that he’s playing in CF where his defensive skills (speed, range & instincts) are more aptly applied he’s gone from over valued to under valued.
The big question is can the M’s take $20 million a year and get better value out of it? Given the current regime in place, my answer would be no. I don’t think they know how to spend money effectively and I’d rather see them sign Ichiro than spend the money elsewhere.
If there was a player like Vlad coming on the market this offseason then I may have thought differently. If this was 2004 I would had said sign Vlad, let Ichiro go and put a player like Jones in CF. I just don’t see anyone “better” than Ichiro coming on the market this season.
Ichiro is definitely worth $20 million. He’s an elite player and will continue to be for at least 3 years, if not longer. I’d actually consider 5/$100 a bargain, really.
Sure, that’s a lot of payroll to commit to one guy, especially one that’s 35 years old. But Ichiro at 35 is not nearly like anyone else at 35. The guy’s probably the best-conditioned over-30 guy out there, as Dave’s spelled out above.
I’d MUCH rather throw $20+ million at Ichiro for 5+ years than at almost any pitcher, especially any of them on the FA market. And the M’s need SPs more than they need outfielders.
63- Cutting A-Jones has nothing to do with this post the two could play any combination of outfield positions for the next 5-10 years. They would simply have enough money to sign a similar player to Ichiro. And my feeling is that The M’s payroll would probably be higher in the future with Ichiro than without him. Meaning that with the positive economic effects of having Ichiro on the team, the M’s will be able to afford a payroll that is upto maybe 10 million then without him. So in my opinion the choice is between A. Jones + a “star making similar money to Ichiro” and a payroll of 95 million. Or A. Jones + Ichiro and a salary of 105 million. Ichiro is worth more to the mariners in financial revenue than the other Jones (andrew) or any similarly priced player.
Dave,
Thanks for another great post. To address everyone advocating that Ichiro be traded so we “get some value for him if he decides to leave” I have a simple question that may challenge some of their thought processes.
In your opinion, after watching the Mariners’ recent drafts and Bavasi’s tenure as GM, is it safer to acquire a good prospect in the scenario where Ichiro is not a Mariner in 08 via a Bavasi trade, or as a compensatory pick in the draft.
In my non-professional opinion, I feel that Ichiro will not leave solely due to money; he seems to be too much of a competitor to bolt for a bottom 5 team. The team that signs Ichiro would lose their 1st round pick (obviously not top 5 because Ichiro wouldn’t go to a bottom team). I’d personally rather have an extra top 25 pick in the Draft than trust a Bavasi and Company talent evaluation.
I agree that I have little faith in the FO to take the money they would’ve spent on Ichiro, if he walks, and use it wisely on free agents. If anybody feels otherwise, they should just look back at the last 2 offseasons. Then when you’re done throwing up on yourself, come back and let us know you’ve changed your mind.
But does anybody really think they’ll just let him walk? I have a very low opinion of our FO, but I have to at least believe that if they know they can’t re-sign him, they won’t let him just walk away for nothing but freed-up salary and a compensatory draft pick.
One of my very favorite things about Ichiro! is that he doesn’t care about making the baseball writers happy, or the fans (by extension, since baseball writers largely determine what fans think of players).
He just simply comes out and does his job, every day, and does it in a way that is always solid and sometimes spectacular to watch.
party4marty
trading ichiro in order to get other talent to replace the bad FA talent you already signed is akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face. What you do is keep ichiro and do your best to pawn off the talent you don’t want. Or at least, wait until their contract runs out, or ditch them altogether. Or something.
But I think I can safely say that whatever you think you could get for 3 months of Ichiro come July, cut it in half.
And the fact is, this team’s future success has way more to do with who the GM is come November, than anything else. I’d be focusing attention there.
Ichiro as a RF being paid $20M…not worth it. As a CF…definitely worth it! I think Ichiro recognized the added value he offered by moving to CF and the impact it would have on his wallet.
Is there an analysis that takes SB and converts them to doubles and recalculates OPS? Would that even be a logical analysis?
Uh… I didn’t say anything about cutting Jones.
I agree, one scenario is that they share the outfield for the forseeable future. But like I said later, I put less stock in the likelihood of the M’s letting Ichrio walk than in their trading him, in the event that he will absolutely not re-sign.
In your opinion, after watching the Mariners’ recent drafts and Bavasi’s tenure as GM, is it safer to acquire a good prospect in the scenario where Ichiro is not a Mariner in 08 via a Bavasi trade, or as a compensatory pick in the draft.
It comes down to whether you think one or two young, high-level, ML-ready players who have already cut their teeth in the minors and proven to be ready for the bigs are more of a sure thing than a comp. pick.
I don’t think there is any question that I’d take the ML-ready players. Bavasi has a poor track record in trades, to be sure, but I think even he will get good value for Ichiro. Let’s give the guy a little credit.
The extra base from a double is worth far more than the extra base from a stolen base, since the stolen base doesn’t move any other players forward. (And that’s without taking into account the significant negative effect a stolen base has statistically on the at bat that’s taking place.)
Great post, Dave.
I’m reminded of an essay Bill James wrote, circa 1985 or so, in which he incisively lambasted the tendency of poorly run teams to turnm a negative focus onto their star players, i.e., “If we’re not winning with him in the lineup every day, then he must not be that good — therefore, we should get rid of him.”
The essay was written specifically about the Oakland A’s and Rickey Henderson. In 1984, the A’s dealt Henderson to the Yankees for Stan Javier, Jay Howell, Jose Rijo, Eric Plunk and Tim Birtsas.
All five were passable to good players for a time, and the trade could almost be defended on the basis of talent value received.
But, as James pointed out (and as has been vindicated by time(, “The idea of building championship teams is to acquire Rickey Hendersons, not trade them away.”
That’s what I think about when I think about the Mariners thinking about trading away Ichiro. We may get some good players in return.
But we’ll have lost Ichiro.
And that cost is too high to bear.
Obviously it was a joke sir…But its not like the two guys are catchers, it would be easy and beneficial to the team to have them in LF/CF. The key is that Ichiro is a great player and provides great financial benefits to the organization, which also helps the M’s pay for more good players.
In short, I do think that the criticism of Ichiro that he may not run enough may be true, but without looking at play-by-play information and factoring the risk of injury inherent in stealing bases, I can’t say I have a firm opinion at this point.
Fangraphs now has a play log for every game for each of the past several years. It’s even sortable, with awesome things like leverage index which measure how “clutch” a certain situation is, and how much value a certain play adds to a team’s chances of winning. The Fangraphs Play Logs are probably my favorite thing on the internet right now. And yes, I know, that makes me a total nerd.
Anyways, last year, Ichiro’s 47 stolen base attempts had a leverage index of 1.25. Leverage, by design, is centered around 1.00, so the average Ichiro steal attempt occurred in situations that had a 25% higher than normal impact on a team winning or losing. That’s a pretty significant difference.
For an exhaustive review, you’d have to look at the leverage index for situations in which he didn’t run, but I’m pretty sure the data doesn’t support your conclusion.
I agree with almost all of Dave’s original post, but fail to see how Ichiro is overrated by the fanbase at large. Writers take shots at him for all the reasons mentioned, but I think the vast majority of Mariner fandom continue to love the guy. Much of the “trade Ichiro” talk from fans is based on 2 assumptions: 1) he does not want to stay (based on some of his comments), 2) the M’s suck this year, and chances of contending with or without him are similarly low. So, the alternative is to get something for the guy while we can.
Dave, I think you may be giving writers too much credit in the premise that they form our opinions for us.
Jim - I’d agree with you if I was more confident that Ichiro is returning to Seattle.
Plus, was Rickey traded because he was an almost-FA, or because the A’s simply thought they would be better w/o him?
They probably have a copy of the Barry Zito offer sheet hanging around. Think Ichiro would bite on $100 million, six years?
I’ve gotten pragmatic about the future of my favorite Mariner. Ichiro will choose the team that suits him best, as is his right as a free agent. He’ll wait until the end of the season and evaluate a group of six or seven teams, all offering top-tier contracts. He can play any position in the outfield, adding to his marketability. He’ll be very deliberate. No hometown discount. No “bleeding Mariner blue.” It’ll be maddening to watch.
I totally agree Dave. I wouldn’t even blink to re-sign Ichiro at 5/100.
I strongly doubt the mariners with 20 million in free agent money this off season would be able replace what he brings on the field (5 wins or so).
And off the field it would be a disaster. An absolute disaster.
I would change this to, based on an anxious interpretation of some of his comments.
A great post, Dave, thank you! I wonder why other players don’t pick up on Ichiro’s stretching and workout routine. Wouldn’t that be something for the organization to try to instill in their farm system? Or is that too “weird” and unacceptable for the coaches down the line? It seems the results speak volumes.
You guys make good points, he gives us credibility, and is a moneymaker and is a consistent hitting, healthy, awesome CF…And I know it all depends on the next GM. I just dont think Ichiro is the difference maker for this team. We dont get any better with him for a couple years, and Ichis time for contributing to a championship team is now. but that may be for a does ichiro want to stay thread.
Dave and all - Thanks for the lesson on park effects - it makes sense that you DO have to adjust his numbers.
So, if we assume a) Mariners FO correctly perceives Ichiro’s value and makes an appropriate offer, and b) Ichiro wants to play for a winning team, then the key question is: how does Ichiro assess the FO’s ability to field a winning team?
Good God, I hope he has’nt been reading USSM.
I want the M’s to resign Ichiro.
Playing devil’s advocate…could they take the $20M to sign Ichiro and give it to 2 good pitchers to replace HoRam and Baek…would that get them more wins than re-signing Ichiro?
So, if we assume a) Mariners FO correctly perceives Ichiro’s value and makes an appropriate offer, and b) Ichiro wants to play for a winning team, then the key question is: how does Ichiro assess the FO’s ability to field a winning team?
I’d add c) how much Ichiro likes living in this region. I wouldn’t rule out the role that geography plays in this.
Playing devil’s advocate…could they take the $20M to sign Ichiro and give it to 2 good pitchers to replace HoRam and Baek…would that get them more wins than re-signing Ichiro?
No - spending money on free agent pitchers is akin to lighting it on fire. Seriously. Sign free agent hitters if you can get a good deal, and acquire pitching through trades and the farm system.
#89
Every team in baseball can use another good starting pitcher. So generally speaking the team that signs a FA pitcher is the team that is willing to pay the most to get that pitcher. Its different with FA hitters. The yankees aren’t interested in a SS and the royals are not looking for a third basemen. With FA hitters you can find a good match for your needs that doesn’t fit other teams needs, therefore making them less valuable. FA Hitters > FA Pitchers
I love Ichiro! for all the above stated reasons.
My girlfriend, on the other hand, loved the Mariners when she could sing her Boone and Ichiro chant. Now that Boone is gone (she has an irrational love of him) the only reason she cares about the Mariners is because of Ichiro! I don’t think enough can be said to truly demonstrate the impact on the perception of the team held by the general public if Ichiro is to leave. They have done a great job hyping Felix, but he only pitches every 5th day and everyday you can go to the yard and see Ichiro!
“and he’s nothing like the stereotypical caucasion “leader” guy who calls team meetings”
once again, the race card is played with no basis whatsoever.
Outside of Jones, the only other player that I might have to consider an argument for having in CF over Ichiro would be JD Drew. Drew doesn’t steal bases but he’s better at taking walks which bodes well for his aging curve. Drew tends to be (very) fragile so I’m not sure how he’d hold up playing in CF but his arm is definitely good enough for it and I think his range would suffice.
There’s another aspect of the Ichiro decision that seems to be missing. You have a CF in Jones, so the question isn’t necessarily if Ichiro is the best CF available but is he the best CF/LF available. That’s a more difficult proposition if a player like Adam Dunn hits the market.
sadly, you just have to listen to sportsradio for a little while to hear the effect that having someone like Gas always mock Ichiro’s unwillingness to be “media-friendly” has on the casual fan
Playing devil’s advocate…could they take the $20M to sign Ichiro and give it to 2 good pitchers to replace HoRam and Baek…would that get them more wins than re-signing Ichiro?
Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista cost 17 million per year. If that’s your idea of “good”, we have a problem.
That’s a more difficult proposition if a player like Adam Dunn hits the market.
Adam Dunn is a DH. He’s unspeakably horrible in left field, to the tune of around -20 runs a year, that it eliminates a huge chunk of his already overrated offensive value.
Adam Dunn isn’t anywhere near Ichiro in value. It’s not even close.
Adam Dunn is Rob Deer with more power.
#95: So true. When Ichiro bats at Safeco, the crowd gets excited. There’s really nobody else on the team that gets people regularly cheering. Maybe it’s only because his name fits nicely into a three-syllable chant, but I think it’s mostly because he’s the guy you think will actually get the job done when he steps to the plate.
I was at last Friday’s loss to the Padres, and when Ichiro got up with 2 on and 2 out late in the game, everyone seemed to think he could get the job done and get us back into the game. (Now, he did get out, but we were all into it for a few minutes at least.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrander/511844049/
96: Any time you make the point that guys given credit for being a leader tend to be white, someone will accuse you of “playing the race card” — cliches are the sound of reaction, not thought — supposedly “without basis”. Of course there’s basis, unless the entire subject of casual, thoughtless racism is off limits. No doubt few of the white sportswriters who criticize Ichiro for his alleged lack of leadership are overt racists. That doesn’t mean their thoughts and words aren’t influenced by the racism of the culture. Ichiro wouldn’t get the same criticism for his leadership if he were white. That’s a fact of life, and it doesn’t go away just because you’re tired of hearing about it.
Oh, and thanks Dave. I find the Ichiro hating-on to be a sign of a writer out of ideas. There’s no question of Ichiro’s talent and ability.
Maybe the problem is that the M’s last two starting centerfielders were Junior and Cammy, one the greatest hitter of our generation until his hammy gave up on him, the other one of the best CF gloves this decade. Oh, and I guess Reed is in there, too.
But let’s be honest: Adam Jones will never be Ichiro, and once he’s off patrolling Boston’s CF later this summer, the regret will set in nearly instantly. And McGrath will start talking about how the M’s should get Ichiro back….
Another thing to bear in mind when negotiating Ichiro’s hypothetical contract is how much revenue you think his presence generates for the team. If you believe, hypothetically, that losing him would result directly in the loss of $5 million annually in merchandise licensing, Japanese TV revenue, ticket sales, and baseball tourism (apart from additional costs associated with a downgrade in the on-field product), then that $100/5 is really $75/5. I can’t speak to the right way to value Ichiro’s revenue contribution, but even if there were an exactly equivalent player somewhere I’d be willing to pay a premium for the guy that opens doors and wallets in Japan and at home.
Dave — I gotta disagree on Dunn. Dunn has the potential to have 30 to 40 pts of OBP on Ichiro not to mention 100 points of slugging. He’s a walk machine and he’s only 27. If I had to take Dunn at age 27 vs Ichiro at age 33 (or whatever they’ll be at the end of the year), I’ve got a better chance of getting 5 good years out of Dunn than I do out of Ichiro.
Yes Dunn is atrocious in LF but he’s also a considerably better hitter than Ichiro. Manny Ramirez has been DHing in right field for quite some time now.
manny has of course been in left field (good lord, the thought of manny in right field makes me sick) and I just can’t think/type.
Adjust for parks and leagues.
Dave, agree entirely.
But lighten up on “50 year old white guys.” It happens, you know.
I think Geography is key like someone said, and Boston is another 3 hr timezone away from Japan, more likely he moves to LA where Hasegawa just moved to so his son could play in a better highschool, I don’t know, are Ichiro and Shiggy friends? Are Ichiro and Joh friends? Does that even matter any more?
He’s only underrated among Mariners fans. Most other MLB fans still see him as a top All-Star leadoff guy.
There’s something to that disparity.
Dave — I gotta disagree on Dunn. Dunn has the potential to have 30 to 40 pts of OBP on Ichiro not to mention 100 points of slugging.
In 2006, Adam Dunn created 99 runs with his bat. He gave back about 20 with his glove. Over the last 3 years, his average RC is 110. Subtract out the runs for his attrocious defense and baserunning, and you’ve got a guy who is about a 90 run per year player. League average for a left fielder is about 85 runs per year. The total package for Adam Dunn is about 5 runs, or half a win, above average.
In 2006, Ichiro created 106 runs with his bat. Over the last 3 years, his average RC is about 110. Add in 10-15 runs for his defense and baserunning, and Ichiro is a 120-125 run per year player. League average for a CF is about 75 runs per year. The total package for Ichiro is about 45 or 50 runs, or about 5 wins, above average.
Ichiro is awesome. Adam Dunn is average. It’s really not close.
[deleted, off topic]
[deleted, off topic]
Dunn has the potential to have 30 to 40 pts of OBP on Ichiro
ITYM “3 or 4 pts”
Dunn career OBP: .379
Ichiro career OBP: .376
He’s a walk machine
Perhaps — he’s had 100+ walks 4 of 6 seasons in the league. But he’s also had 168 or more K’s in 4 of 6, too, had he’s the only player with more than 190 K’s in a season — he’s done that twice now.
He may be drawing walks, but he’s not selective.
and he’s only 27.
And that should be a big, fat warning. He’s at his peak now. There’s a good chance he’ll be Richie Sexson in year four or five of his contract. He’s already hitting like Sexson.
OTOH, Ichiro will stay the slap hitter he is, and he’ll probably retire the moment he feels he’s a drag on whatever team he’s with.
Yes Dunn is atrocious in LF but he’s also a considerably better hitter than Ichiro.
If you believe this, then I have a first baseman and an $11M/year contract I’d love to trade you. He’s just like Adam Dunn, only with a few more miles, but cheaper than Dunn will be in the open market. Yeah, he’s hitting .177/.284/.355, but come on, he’s better than Ichiro!
Great piece of writing. I love Ichiro, and like many here, hope he retires as a Mariner.
105 brings up a good point in that his market value is more than his actual value because of other revenue he brings, and not just from Japan. Everywhere I go, people always tell me they love the Mariners, and that Ichiro is a player they’d love to see on their team. I don’t know if this increases revenue, but it sure as hell gives me a sense of pride, and I buy more Mariners memorabilia because of it.
A lot of people are worried about Ichiro’s legs, and many people have brought up the good point that he will adjust and hit for more power or change his swing to hit more balls into the gap. I agree that Ichiro will adjust because he has the best instincts in baseball, and he’s a very smart and determined player. I can’t see him deteriorating that much. Also, I don’t know how much his speed will drop. Look at Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton, they’re still some of the most efficient base stealers in the game.
Another point I’d like to make is that if trained properly, and given the right genetics, speed will not be reduced by much until past the age of 40. Several sprinters in track and field have been good into their early 30’s (by good I mean world-class good, under 10 seconds for the 100 meter dash), and for longer distances such as the 400 meter or even 1500 meter or 5000 meter runs, Michael Johnson ran his WR 400 at the age of 31, and Hicham el Guerrouj got gold in both events at the age of 30. Also, Bernard Lagat was just 3 seconds off the WR in the 1500 meter race as a 32 year old, and is a top 3 favorite to win the Olypmics as a 34 year old, so like many of you, I’m not worried about Ichiro’s loss of speed, or if it does happen, his ability to change his game and adapt.
As for Baker’s comments, it looks to me like he’s framing the matter in terms of return-on-investment, rather than whether or not Ichiro is a good hitter and centerfielder… which logically isn’t a bad place to start.
But Ichiro brings a lot more to the Mariners, in terms of the ticket and merchandise sales with a massive Japanese fanbase alone, than most of those top-OPS CF’s bring with their bats, gloves and legs. And that’s excluding his competitive numbers at the plate and his excellent range in CF, which Dave has covered and analyzed at length (and well).
Baker misses the boat in ignoring this aspect of Ichiro’s value… though I can understand that given he is an outsider in his 1st year covering the team. I don’t think Baker understands that.
Listen, I’m a huge Ichiro fan and I do not want to see him go, but I also think that your post was a little skewed. I understand he’s a CFer, but up until last year he was a RFer, and the difference is really negligiable.
You shouldn’t be just comparing him to other CFers (to come to the conclusion you’d only accept Sizemore or Beltran over him), but to all OFers who can play CF. So would you take him over Vladimir Guerrero? Bobby Abreu? Hideki Matsui? These are just a few. I could include players like Manny Ramirez aswell, though I can see you leaving him out simply because you would never put him in CF.
Now the list of players one would accept over Ichiro is longer. Which OFers who can play CF would you accept over Ichiro?
I understand he’s a CFer, but up until last year he was a RFer, and the difference is really negligiable.
Uhh, what?
So would you take him over Vladimir Guerrero? Bobby Abreu? Hideki Matsui?
You’d put Vladimir Guerrero in center field? Really?
Now the list of players one would accept over Ichiro is longer. Which OFers who can play CF would you accept over Ichiro?
Two. Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore. You apparently don’t understand defense.
Yeah, the 4.5-5 WAR estimate is about right for Ichiro!, and yeah, Adam Dunn is a future DH, if his bat doesn’t decline much more. Also alot of his power comes from playing half his games at Great American Ball Park, so while he’s been a good bat, he’s not really middle of the order good, he’s just looked that way because of the park he plays in.
118
LOL. Thats funny. Man Ram patroling Cf in Safeco.
First off, that completely disregards any aging curve that Ichiro is going to have in about 2-3 years. Dunn is 6 years younger than him. His VORP mean percentiles are close in 2007 to Ichiro but the upside he has if he outperforms his PECOTA is pretty sizable compared to Ichiro. His projections are better too, even given his, uh, lack of conditioning. . .
Of Ichiro’s top 5 BP comps, only Lou Brock had lasted more than 2 years in baseball at the comparisons. Dunn has 2 comps that had 8 years of baseball left ahead of them. I’m not totally sold on comparisons but you’re talking about sinking a ton of money into Ichiro’s age 37-38 seasons and I’m not sure that’s something I’d want compared to Dunn’s age 31-32 seasons. Not to mention that dunn can move to DH in a few years and actually improve his value. Ichiro isn’t going to maintain his current defensive levels forever and if he moves to LF he losses value.
Look, I’m not saying that if you asked me to start a team today I’d take Dunn of ichiro. But I think that if you asked me whether I wanted 5 years of Dunn or 5 years of Ichiro, given the fact that I have a young, good CF ready for next year. . .well, I’d at least have to think about Dunn.
Dunn Career at Home: .254/.394/.548
Dunn Career on Road: .238/.365/.481
Also I don’t think he’s going to age all that well (call it a hunch). Adam Dunn is an albatross waiting to happen.
oooh, timely. I turned on the radio for the game, and instead over on KJR Dick and Softy are discussing keeping/trading Ichiro (Dick Fein: “he’s not a top level superstar”)
Wouldn’t you say that the contract Ichiro would sign this winter will be roughly comparable to what Carlos Zambrano would get? Would we not be better off having Adam Jones in CF and Zambrano replacing Weaver rather than Ichiro and replacement level pitcher for the same price? I realize we can’t assume we’d win the Zambrano bidding, especially because he’s far and away the best pitcher who could hit the FA market (in my opinion for what that’s worth), but if that scenario were possible, would you rather go that route?
ah, Softy mocking the idea a caller raised about playing Adam Jones in center.
First off, that completely disregards any aging curve that Ichiro is going to have in about 2-3 years. Dunn is 6 years younger than him. His VORP mean percentiles are close in 2007 to Ichiro but the upside he has if he outperforms his PECOTA is pretty sizable compared to Ichiro. His projections are better too, even given his, uh, lack of conditioning.
PECOTA doesn’t have anyone to compare Ichiro to, becuase he’s so unique. Nate Silver will freely admit this.
Dunn is 5 years away from being out of baseball. I’d take age 38 Ichiro over age 32 Dunn. If you’re worried about an aging curve, Adam Dunn is the guy to worry about.
Carlos Zambrano has been as bad as Miguel Batista this year. If you want him instead of Ichiro, I don’t know what to tell you.
Zambrano is rapidly playing himself out of the FA sweepstakes
RE: aging, also I think Ichiro! will age better than most because of the manner he conditions himself. It’s not guarenteed, and I have no proof to offer, but my experience with sports injuries tell me he’s less likely to get injured as a result. One sign he’s aging better is that his defense hasn’t dropped off the map like most players his age, he’s lost a step or two, but not nearly what you’d normally see for a player his age.
comment 115
Dunn has walked 100+ times 4 times in his career at age 26
Sexson has done it 0 times at age 26 — he’s never done it. His career high in walks was 98 at age 28.
Dunn swings all out, but he gets on base and he hits a ton of HR. He’d hit 40+ HRs at age 24,25,26 (he’s nearly on pace for another 40-HR season). Sexson didn’t do it till age 26 and he’s only done it once since then.
The Sexson-Dunn comparison is bunk.
Ichiro will stay the slap hitter he is, and he’ll probably retire the moment he feels he’s a drag on whatever team he’s with.
If Ichiro loses any bat-speed, he’s screwed. Players lose bat-speed with age. He’s not guaranteed to be able to hit 200+ singles as he ages and he needs to to maintain his OBP and a large part of his offensive value.
first post. I repeat what others have said, for emphasis.
Ichiro is irreplaceable. He is a historic player that we will tell our kids about.
Will we tell them that Bavasi traded him for garbage?
Any GM who hired Hargrove cannot get anything in trade for Ichiro, even ignoring the fact that Vidro is Bavasi’s best trade acquisition. Vidro.
Compare Soriano to Ichiro, and Vidro to what we could get, and run to the toilet.
And I don’t hate Vidro.
The team generated a rumor that Hargrove had been granted an extension, while Ichiro remained unsigned. Madness.
That Ichiro’s status is undecided says everything about this FO that could be said,
and everything about the gut-churning horror of being an M’s fan.
Thanks Dave.
I’d encourage you to go do more research on aging curves, az. Players don’t age like you think they do.
dave - comment 127
it’s a valid argument. and your exceedingly convincing. that’s part of the reason I come to this blog (even though I’m a Cardinals fan and wasn’t really ever interested in the Mariners previously). I’m not totally swayed that I’d take Ichiro over Dunn but you’ve made me much less certain that it’s as close as I thought it was.
comment 133
The difference is opinion is whether Ichiro is going to age like, well, most of the other slap hitters. You and I disagree there. I’m not an idiot about aging curves (nor an expert).
Dunn isn’t going to age well. I’ll freely admit that. But Dunn’s value isn’t tied to his ability to play a critical defensive position.
It’s just plain dumb to trade away your star in the middle of the season.
You won’t improve the team by trading Ichiro - he brings more to this team on the field than anyone thinks.
The difference is opinion is whether Ichiro is going to age like, well, most of the other slap hitters.
But Ichiro isn’t like most other slap hitters. It’d be like trying to compare Randy Johnson to Chris Young just because they’re both tall.
Dunn is 6-6 and 275 pounds and has to play the OF because he’s so horrible at 1B. He already has “old man skills” (patience, power, low contact). He’s not exactly the type to age well. I can’t imagine him being anything but a DH in just a few years. Plus, he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the NL. I think it’s pretty much downhill from here for him. Adam Dunn in Safeco would be a nightmare in the OF and an OK bat. No thanks.
I have always loved Ichiro because he plays the game with intensity and makes most everything he does exciting. Without him there are very few reasons to watch the Mariners. I respect him as a player and a person and love how he prepares and works at the game. Thanks for writing this.
I feel torn about the trade/free agent situation. A part of me wants him to stay and keep the Mariners exciting and a part of me wants him to leave for greener pastures, probably NYY knowing how pissed Steinbrenner was when they failed to get Ichiro the first time, so he can be a star in a big market and get the respect he deserves.
137 - that’s the part that I’m not following you on. I know that Ichiro’s a consummate hitter with amazing contact rates. But what is it about his ability to hit singles that differentiates him from other hitters that have high AVG but lack power.
Ichiro! is not just some slap hitter, a lot of his high averages comes from being fast enough to out run groundballs, but it mostly comes from hitting line drives over the infielders heads and avoiding pop-flys. I think he’ll be fine even if he loses some bat-speed. I’m not sure anybody in baseball is better at putting the ball where the fielder isn’t, to paraphrase the commercial. I suspect that ages better than a batter who’s value comes from JUST from smoking the ball.
But Ichiro isn’t like most other slap hitters. It’d be like trying to compare Randy Johnson to Chris Young just because they’re both tall.
Who do you see as comparables to Ichiro - are they all dead-ball era players?
Rod Carew is a very comparable hitter (but not fielder).
Ichiro doesn’t lack power. His singles-fest offense is by design, a product of his remarkable bat control and his desire to get 200 hits every single year.
Look at his April/May splits, for instance. To begin the year, he was driving the ball in the air and hitting for power. In April, he hit .305/.352/.463 - 7 of his 25 hits were for extra bases. In May, he’s gotten back to doing his groundball thing, hitting .348/.412/.391, with only 4 of his 32 hits going for extra bases.
Ichiro is a singles hitter because he believes that hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed is the best allocation of his physical skills. But he clearly has power and the ability to drive the ball when he wants to.
His bat control is so ridiculous that he can choose what kind of hitter he wants to be. As he loses some footspeed (and, let’s be honest, we have no idea when that’s going to happen, because he keeps himself in ridiculously good shape), he has the bat control to hit the ball in the air more often and utilize his power.
Most singles hitters like Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo lack power because they can’t hit the ball hard enough to drive it often enough. That’s not Ichiro.
Rod Carew is a very comparable hitter
Ichiro does drop mad hits much like Mr. Carew…
#144, I agree fully, I don’t think he swings as hard as he can (and has at times). He does that on-purpose. I could see him taking a Tony Gwynn-Lite career path (with the bat) increasing power and walks as he loses a step.
Tony Gwynn-Lite
nice pun…
[deleted, troll]
Comparable hitters to Ichiro?
I’m really not sure. You have to find hitters who have had 6+ years of consecutive 200+ hits seasons. Wade Boggs and Willie Keeler are the only two. Neither of them displayed much HR power (outside of Boggs’ fluke 24 HR 1987 season, and Boggs usually had 40+ doubles), and both of them started their streaks well before age 27 (as Ichiro’s done it now).
I’m just not sure history has ever seen a hitter like Ichiro. If PECOTA can’t find one, I’m not sure anyone can…
Adding to 144
It’s very entertaining to watch Ichiro take BP for those that have never seen it. He has tremendous bat control as Dave mentions. He hits 4-5 balls through the 3b SS gap, then 4-5 up the middle, then though the 2b 1b gap then drives the ball in the outfield, then he straight pulls the ball. After watching you get the feeling he can do anything he wants with the baseball. And he definitely has power. He’s unlike anyone else.
I’m really not sure. You have to find hitters who have had 6+ years of consecutive 200+ hits seasons. Wade Boggs and Willie Keeler are the only two.
I like the Boggs comparison, though Ichiro’s glove is far better.
Here’s one: Dunn’s #1 comparable is Ron Kittle. Who would you rather sign a 5/75 deal with for 2008: Kittle at 27, or Boggs at 33?
If you don’t like that, how about Jim Gentile at 27 vs. Wade Boggs at 33?
Given Bavasi’s trading “skills”, doesn’t it scare the hell out of you to think he could be considering trading Ichiro before the deadline? Great post, but in addition to arguably the 3rd best center fielder in the bigs, how about his value as a leadoff hitter? How many leadoff hitters would you rather have than Ichiro? And who on this hacking team would be the choice to succeed him if he was traded?
I think the M’s have a lot of problems to address, but Ichiro certainly isn’t one of them.
The only reason to trade Ichiro is if the Mariners have decided they can’t/won’t sign him, I can easily envision the possibility that the guy just doesn’t want to play for these front office clowns and/or Hargrove any more and simply decides to move on to a contender.
I can also envision a scenario where the M’s simply say they can’t afford to sign him.
In either case, I’d rather see some prospects come back in trade than hope for a good return via the draft. I’m not hopeful that Bavasi et al. can make the most of either scenario, however.
My only beef with Ichiro is his OBP. For a guy who hits the way he does to have such a low walk rate is really inexcusable. If he ever hits .400 it will be because he walks more, not because he gets more hits.
You build great team by collecting and retaining superstars, not by leveraging them for role players.
I think Ichiro’s power will go up as his career goes on…He destroys BP. He can hit as many homers as anyone in bp…the true sluggers hit it much further but he can pepper balls just over the fence in right.
In addition to Beltran and Sizemore, who are clearly better, I think you could make a fair argument for the following center fielders as equal to Ichiro:
Chris Young
Vernon Wells
Andruw Jones
Hunter Pence
Torii Hunter
Curtis Granderson
Carl Crawford
BJ Upton
It isn’t worth quibbling over details. All these guys clearly belong in the discussion, which means Ichiro is not quite a “superstar” based on talent alone, at least as I would define the term. I agree Ichiro is underrated in some circles, primarily I think because (a) systems like PECOTA don’t understand him; and (b) his consistent health is not given adequate weight. That said, based on his production alone, I don’t think I’d give him $20M.
#156, I don’t think any of those guys are in Ichiro’s class right now. Jones was, but not any more. They all either lack the bat or the glove, or in most cases both. Wells has two seasons that even compare to Ichiro offensively (and is showing some regression this year), Upton is not a CF. Crawford is overrated offensively (sorry, he is). Granderson can’t hit, at all. Torii Hunter, I mean, come-on, I know he’s hot this year, ever heard of small sample size? I’m not sure about Hunter Pence or Chris Young yet, but they’re not Ichiro! at this point.
OK, for those who think trading him would be a good idea, let’s take a look at Bill Bavasi’s trading record during his term as M’s GM. There have been 29 trades made by Mr. Bavasi, many of them for minor or role players. Here are the trades involving starters or significant pitchers during this time:
Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago/Juan Gonzalez (a minor leaguer, not Juan gone)
Freddy Garcia/Ben Davis for Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo.
Jamie Moyer for Andrew Barb, Andrew Baldwin
Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert, Yorvit Torrealba
Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez
Eddie Guardado for Travis Chick
Bret Boone for a PTBNL, and I don’t see any record that we received one.
Is this a man that you want to see in charge of getting market value for our best player?
156-
You DID read the part where Dave compared Ichiro’s park-adjusted OPS to Wells, Jones and Hunter, right- and it’s BETTER?
Just because Ichiro doesn’t have 25-30 HR power doesn’t mean he doesn’t have “production”. The problem with Ichiro is now that we expect outfielders to hit 30 home runs as a matter of course, we don’t know how to evaluate someone who’s got a different game that’s MORE valuable than that.
To be fair, the only bad trades of the ones you mentioned where the Carlos Guillen and Rafael Soriano Trades. Boone was done, Guardado was done, Terrealba was a decent pick-up and Foppert was a worthwhile reclamation project at the time, nobody could have seen Reed, Morse, AND Olivo all turning out the way they did. Moyer is basically done too.
Yah.
Ichiro is not Junior.
(Come to think of it, I remember some fans getting on Cameron for striking out too much. Never mind the decent to good OBP; it was all about striking out).
In addition to Beltran and Sizemore, who are clearly better, I think you could make a fair argument for the following center fielders as equal to Ichiro:
No, you can’t. Wells/Hunter/Jones/Crawford don’t have a case. They just don’t.
One or two of Young/Pence/Granderson/Upton might be better than Ichiro in 2-3 years, but they certainly aren’t now. If you’re trying to make a list of center fielders with potential, you might as well throw Fernando Martinez, Justin Upton, and Cameron Maybin into the mix.
But to suggest that a guy like Hunter Pence or Chris Young is Ichiro’s equal today is laughable.
hehe, I just read “Terrealba”. I thought I spelled that right.