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Future Forty Updated for June
It’s the first of the month, and the major league team is frustrating to talk about, so that means it’s time for another Future Forty update, where we can focus on the future of the franchise rather than the present. Escapism at its finest.
May was quite a different month on the farm than April. Guys who started the season fell apart, while others found their form and surged ahead. I’ve gathered quite a few scouting reports from guys who have been scouting for a long time, and what they’ve seen has shifted my opinion a bit on a few players. So, let’s get to the guys who have made some waves, one way or another.
Wladimir Balentien’s OPS in May is 250 points lower than in April. That’s a huge dropoff in production, but also highlights why looking at value statistics such as OPS for minor leaguers will lead to flawed conclusions. Take a look at the numbers that reveal his secondary skills:
April: 10.1% BB/AB, 19.1% K/AB, 36.3% XBH/H, 1:1 HR/2B, 5 SB/1 CS
May: 11.0% BB/AB, 18.3% K/AB, 32.2% XBH/H, 1:1 HR/2B, 5 SB/1 CS
The walk and strikeout rates are statistical ties, and the XBH/H rate is basically the same. He’s split his extra base hits right down the middle between doubles and homers each month. He’s even stealing bases at the same clip. The massive drop in OPS is due entirely to the fact that balls that were going for singles in April became outs in May. There’s no less consistent skill in baseball for a hitter than the ability to hit a single, as the difference is often a couple inches here or there. It’s a ball falling in or sneaking under a glove. Hitting a lot of singles is rarely a sign of actual skill, with Ichiro being an obvious exception.
So, if you were to look at Balentien’s BA/OBP/SLG splits by month, you’d come to the conclusion that he was a significantly better player in April than he was last year. In terms of helping the Rainiers win, you’d be right. In terms of evaluating his talent level, which is really what prospect analysis is all about, you’d be missing the point, though. However you felt about Balentien at the end of April should be exactly how you feel about him now, because he just had the exact same month, just with a significantly smaller dose of luck.
I won’t talk too much about Adam Jones here, because we’ve covered the topic already, but he’s ready for the majors. 17 of his 33 hits in May went for extra bases, including 8 home runs. He’s improved his approach at the plate and he’s crushing mistakes. His defense is also vastly improved over where it was last season. If he was on the 25 man roster, he’d be the Mariners fifth best hitter and second best defensive outfielder. He’s a significantly better player than Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, Ben Broussard, or Richie Sexson right now. If the Mariners are serious about winning games, they should find a way to get him at-bats in the major league line-up.
And finally, from Tacoma, Jeff Clement. There are things to like in his statistical profile. 19 of his 42 hits have gone for extra bases and he’s drawn 20 walks in 172 at-bats. He’s running an .859 OPS in May, a huge upgrade over the .681 mark he posted in April and the .668 mark he put up in Tacoma last year. Behind only Ben Broussard, he’s got the second most left-handed power in the organization. So, there are reasons to be somewhat optimistic.
Good luck finding a scout who thinks he’s going to be much of a major league player, though. The reports on him from the first two months of the season have been absolutely brutal. Everyone says he’s swinging a very slow bat, can’t get around on fastballs on the inner half, chases pitches up in the zone, and is only effective when he knows he’s getting a fastball from a guy who can’t get it up there faster than 92. I haven’t gotten a good explanation for why his bat has slowed so much since college, but everyone agrees that it has. He hasn’t made the transition to wood bats well, and at this point, his offensive production is a question mark. To boot, pretty much everyone has given up on him as a major league catcher. He’s DH’ing more often, and his major league position now looks like first base or designated hitter.
For a guy who turns 24 in a few months and has lost his defensive value, he needs to be tearing the cover off the ball in the PCL. He’s just not, and not many people think he’s going to start doing so any time soon. I’ve downgraded him on the list, and he’s now more of a guy the M’s hope might be able to help them as a role player next year than any kind of catcher of the future. If the team could have that pick to do over again, I’m pretty sure they’d go another direction.
Okay, enough Tacoma stuff. Let’s talk about Tui’s struggles the last month. Remember what you read about Wlad a few paragraphs ago? Yea, same thing. He’s actually jumped his walk rate up by 50% during his slump, is getting XBH at the same rate, but all those April singles have turned into May outs. He’s not a .370 hitter, but he’s not a .205 hitter either. The lack of power is still a problem, but the improved approach at the plate is a significant development, and I’m still very happy with the first two months he’s put together. The ball will start finding holes again, and if Tui can learn to drive the ball more often, he can still turn himself into a useful major league player.
Down in High Desert, Chris Tillman made his second start last night since getting promoted from Wisconsin, and it didn’t go well. It was never a good idea to put him in the California League at this point, and the early results are about as bad as we feared they would be. The M’s still believe in making their prospects fail at an early age - we still disagree with that idea of player development. No point rehashing the argument here, but needless to say, I feel bad for Chris Tillman. A promising season from a young kid was just flushed down the drain in lieu of seeing how he overcomes artificial adversity.
The hottest hitter in the organization resides in Wisconsin, where Kuo-Hui Lo began the season 22 for his first 120, a paltry .183 average, with all of 3 extra base hits, 7 walks, and 23 strikeouts in his first 31 games. Struggling didn’t begin to define it. But he’s reminding people why they like the bat, as he’s now 15 for his last 35 with 5 extra base hits, 4 walks, and 4 strikeouts in his last 10 games. He’s driving the ball, working the count, and showing that there is life in his bat.
And no Future Forty would be complete without a note about my underaged mancrush, Carlos Triunfel. He hit .326/.357/.424 in May, as a 17-year-old in the Midwest League. He showed some real power, driving 7 extra base hits, and actually drew walks in back to back games. His game is still ridiculously raw (he’s been picked off of first base four times in two months), but the bat is just so very special. He’s now only the second Mariner prospect ever to receive a 10 reward rating on the Future Forty. He’s still all projection at this point, but the ceiling is basically limitless. He’s got a real chance to be the next great Mariner hitter, and it’s been a long time since we had a prospect we could write that about.
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I have a question on your remarks on Balentien. You write that his decrease in production is due to fewer singles finding holes. At the same time, his extra-base-hit rate declined slightly/basically stayed the same.
I sense a contradiction, here: If the decrease in production is due to fewer singles, then the XBH/H rate ought to increase. Looking at his splits, he has the same amount of XBHs in May as in April but several more ABs (April: 89 ABs/12 XBHs, May: 109 ABs/10 XBHs). It seems to me that one would have to look at the ratio of XBH/AB to draw the conclusion that the decreased production is due to fewer singles.
I wonder if you have any thoughts on Alex Liddi. Did you get any scouts’ opinions about him that led you to put him in the same range as Clement, Tillman, Tui, etc?
When I watched the T-Rats play a few games in April, I came away in love with his game, raw though it is. He seems like one to keep a really close eye on.
The Clement news is pretty disheartening, but Jason Churchill at ProspectInsider didn’t seem as down on him even at the end of April when his stats were even worse. Is what you’re hearing the overwhelming consensus or is there some hope for Jeff yet? I’d hate to think the Mariners spent a #3 pick on someone who isn’t going to be contributing in any significant fashion.
Wow, the Jeff Clement reports are depressing. Have you heard much from scouts about Adam Moore at High Desert? Is his production a mirage, or is there anything prospect worthy there?
Another stat for those who want to look at the bright side on Clement. His strikeout rates have been improving incrementally each year - 22.1% of ABs at Wisconsin in 2005, 21.6% of ABs at Tacoma last year, 19.8% of ABs this year. I’m not sure where that matches up with the scouts saying his bat is slow, though.
Dave
How much has Morrow’s move to the pen effected his reward in your eyes?
If Clement is not progressing, would Jamie Burke have a chance at a second season?
I think his early reviews would be he could be a backup for some MLB team.
Not the most pressing issue, but who wants to talk about starting pitching.
Johjima resigning now a must.
Since we’re talking Future Forty…what’s the latest on Mark Lowe? Any news on his progress?
Could someone clarify Johjima’s contract status? Is he arbitration elgible after his contract expires or would he be an unrestricted FA. Wondering about what to do with Catcher and leaning towards focussing solely on Johjima and Possibly dealing Clement. Is Clement’s Defense enough to be a backup/1b/dh poor man’s Mickey Tettleton?
It would be a very poor man’s Tettleton. Aside from not drawing enough walks to compensate for the low batting average, he lacks Tettleton’s great distinguishing feature of being a switch-hitter.
This is really disappointing news on Clement. Wow. This management regime absolutely could not afford to blow that pick and it’s starting to look like they did.
Since Vidro is probably our DH next year, let’s hope Clement the year after.
Dave,
due to this organization’s stupid “make them fail” policy, is it possible that Truinfel gets promoted to High Desert if his success continues? Or is it set that he’s staying at Wisconsin all year?
Are catchers still as terrible a bet to draft as they have been historically?
I have a question on your remarks on Balentien. You write that his decrease in production is due to fewer singles finding holes. At the same time, his extra-base-hit rate declined slightly/basically stayed the same.
Okay, a slight revision: The decrease in production is almost entirely due to fewer singles finding holes, not completely entirely. But the point still stands.
I wonder if you have any thoughts on Alex Liddi. Did you get any scouts’ opinions about him that led you to put him in the same range as Clement, Tillman, Tui, etc?
I liked Liddi a lot when I saw him in Peoria, as he’s definitely got a power hitter’s swing, and he’s one of the few hitters in the organization that has a clue about how to approach hitting. He’s not particularly athletic, and there are concerns about whether he can stick at third base, but I like the bat a lot.
Wow, the Jeff Clement reports are depressing. Have you heard much from scouts about Adam Moore at High Desert? Is his production a mirage, or is there anything prospect worthy there?
Adam Moore replaecd Steve Uhlmansiek on the list this month, but both are longshots with little upside. Moore has some power, but he has a very long swing and is fairly easy to pitch to. Considering his home park, his performance isn’t all that impressive. He’ll hit the occassional longball, but make a lot of outs too.
How much has Morrow’s move to the pen effected his reward in your eyes?
He’d be an 8 reward as a starter. He’s barely a 7 as a reliever. It’s a big dropoff.
If Clement is not progressing, would Jamie Burke have a chance at a second season?
Unless Burke collapses in the second half, I expect him back next year. He’s been tremendous as the backup catcher this year.
Since we’re talking Future Forty…what’s the latest on Mark Lowe? Any news on his progress?
Throwing off flat ground without pain, which is a good sign, but he’s still looking at a post-all star break return at the earliest. I wouldn’t count on getting anything from him this year.
Could someone clarify Johjima’s contract status?
He’s a free agent after next year. Just like with Sasaki and and the Yanks with Matsui, the M’s waived their right to keep him under club control for the full six years.
due to this organization’s stupid “make them fail” policy, is it possible that Truinfel gets promoted to High Desert if his success continues? Or is it set that he’s staying at Wisconsin all year?
Anything is possible in this organization, but sending a hitter to High Desert isn’t really a good way to make them fail. If they really want Triunfel to struggle, they’ll send him to West Tennessee.
Agreed, the news on Clement is depressing. Is there a logical explanation for his struggles? As I recall, he pretty much was considered about as can’t-miss a prospect as there was in that draft …
Did he get off the juice?
“Escapism at its finest.”
I’d say it’s double escapism–sports is an escape from real life, as well as the minor leagues being an evasion of our inconsistent major league team.
Since we’re talking minor league and the draft….any thoughts about the statement last year that you would take Miller & Morrow over Lincecum? Would the M’s have done the same thing with Lincecum that they did with Morrow and turned him into reliever?
Miller is now up in the bigs and had an easy time with StL in his first game.
I remain concerned that the M’s either fail to get value from their early round picks or marginalize them.
Dave, thanks for doing this again.
Is Justin Thomas the groundball version of Feierabend with a better curve ball but not as good change?
I know relievers as prospects generally do not interest you much, but the chances of Morrow returning to starting hopefully improve slightly with each decent reliever developed. Are there any relievers taking a step forward sort of like Lowe and O’Flaherty did last year?
Lincecum is this year’s Papelbon for USS Mariner. Tell us you were wrong! Admit it! Yaaaarrrrgh!
Since we’re talking minor league and the draft….any thoughts about the statement last year that you would take Miller & Morrow over Lincecum? Would the M’s have done the same thing with Lincecum that they did with Morrow and turned him into reliever?
I’d still take Miller over Lincecum. I love Andrew Miller. If he was in the same room with Felix and Triunfel, I’d probably pass out.
Is Justin Thomas the groundball version of Feierabend with a better curve ball but not as good change?
I haven’t seen Thomas pitch, but based on second hand reports, he’s also got a little more velo than Feierabend does, throws a two-seamer, and his breaking ball is more of a strikeout pitch than Feierabend’s change-up is.
I know relievers as prospects generally do not interest you much, but the chances of Morrow returning to starting hopefully improve slightly with each decent reliever developed. Are there any relievers taking a step forward sort of like Lowe and O’Flaherty did last year?
Not really. Kam Mickolio is getting outs in Double-A less than a year after being drafted, which is impressive for a kid who was supposed to be extremely raw as an 18th round pick, but he’s doing it with a totally different skillset than we saw last year. He’s throwing a lot of four seamers this year, going for strikeouts instead of groundballs, and while it’s working, it’s a bit unnerving to see a guy going from a dominant groundball guy to a flyball guy overnight. So, I’m not ready to jump all over his bandwagon yet.
That was an absolutely awesome post Dave. Thanks.
How successful has the restocking of the Mariners’ minor system been in your opinion Dave? Generally the opinion of Bob Fontaine has been pretty good here, but with Jeff Clement faltering the 2004 and 2005 draft returns are looking really barren.
What is your view on Tony Butler’s struggles this year at Wisconsin? Sophomore slump or should we be really worried? Also, have you been surprised at how badly Wisconsin has performed as a team given that most of the M’s young talent is on the roster?
Derek had a similar Miller Moment last night
I should’ve known you were gonna say what you said about Tillman in High Desert. On his second start yesterday in Bakersfield (not Adelanto… Bakersfield):
1. They were playing in Bakersfield, CA, which is 408 feet above sea level and whose park factor, last I checked, is slightly above average at best.
2. Bakersfield’s unimpresive lineup has a couple of big High A bats like John Mayberry, who was one of two guys who took Tillman deep yesterday. The blast was Mayberry’s 15th of the year.
3. The rest of the Mavs pitching staff has done reasonably fine despite most of them lacking significant talent and pitching about half of their games in that space park back in Adelanto. I’m not sure it’s fair to blame the home park (that Tillman didn’t even pitch in yesterday) for the understandable growing pains of a kid in his first full pro year.
4. Chris Tillman is in his first full year of pro ball, and even with his success in the Midwest League, he hung a few pitches that Single A hitters destroyed, especially in his last few Wisconsin starts, which looked remarkable similar to his first couple High Desert starts. I’m not sure the park is at fault for his last two starts, so much as his own growing pains.
How successful has the restocking of the Mariners’ minor system been in your opinion Dave? Generally the opinion of Bob Fontaine has been pretty good here, but with Jeff Clement faltering the 2004 and 2005 draft returns are looking really barren.
The system is in a lot better shape than it was a few years ago.
What is your view on Tony Butler’s struggles this year at Wisconsin?
I left him off the post because I think he’s hurt, and I’m trying to get confirmation of that. But I’d be surprised if he wasn’t pitching through an arm injury.
I should’ve known you were gonna say what you said about Tillman in High Desert. On his second start yesterday in Bakersfield (not Adelanto… Bakersfield)
You don’t think I know the game was in Bakersfield, Gomez?
1. They were playing in Bakersfield, CA, which is 408 feet above sea level and whose park factor, last I checked, is slightly above average at best.
It’s slightly above average in comparison to the rest of the California League, which is the best hitters league on the planet. Bakersfield isn’t Lancaster of High Desert, but it’s a good place to hit.
I’m not sure it’s fair to blame the home park (that Tillman didn’t even pitch in yesterday) for the understandable growing pains of a kid in his first full pro year.
Hey, here’s a news flash - I didn’t blame the home park. I didn’t mention the home park. I said it was a bad idea to rush him to the California League.
You really need to read closer and assume less, because you’re developing quite the track record of taking things I say ridiculously out of context and getting bent out of shape about it.
Dave,
Among the players the Mariners were evaluating along with Clement in that draft, who are the guys who look like they might have been better pick? They must have been looking at a rather short list with the #3 pick, who would you rather have than Clement among those players?
Hey Dave,
Would you let a decent reliever go for Eligah Dukes - or is his character too much of a liability?
thnx.
Among the players the Mariners were evaluating along with Clement in that draft, who are the guys who look like they might have been better pick? They must have been looking at a rather short list with the #3 pick, who would you rather have than Clement among those players?
It basically came down to Clement vs Cameron Maybin, and they went with the left handed hitting catcher over the right-handed hitting outfielder, even though they really liked Maybin’s potential. There’s no way the Tigers would trade Maybin for Clement right now. Maybin’s a top 5 prospect in baseball.
Would you let a decent reliever go for Elijah Dukes - or is his character too much of a liability?
Elijah Dukes belongs in jail. I wouldn’t want him on the Mariners.
# 29 Ryan Zimmerman was four and Ryan Braun was five. Both third baseman which might of saved the Beltre contract. But, of course hindsight, and Beltre is playing well this year.
Any idea why Truinfel hasn’t played the past two days?
Has Halman got any chance of getting more contact or taking a walk from time to time or is he going to whif twice a game forever?
Great work, as usual, Dave.
When I click the link, I still get the old future 40.
That should read But, when I click the link, I get the old future 40.
How many top 5 picks have flamed out over the past 5 years? Is Clement’s case all that unusual?
I’d also like to know what is happening with our LH bats. Clement is the second top LH prospect (Reed) to come through this system and regress - with exactly the same swing diagnosis (slow bat).
That was a nice break/escape from last night.
Besides Adam Jones(hopefully) who is the next prospect you see making big news up in the majors?
Any idea why Truinfel hasn’t played the past two days?
Minor injury - he’s fine, will be back shortly.
Has Halman got any chance of getting more contact or taking a walk from time to time or is he going to whif twice a game forever?
His approach is horrible. He’s young, and he’s talented, but he’s got a long, long ways to go.
When I click the link, I still get the old future 40.
Hit refresh.
How dumb is it to have a pitcher pitch through an arm injury? Geez, our record in destroying young arms is frightening.
Dave, do you think it’s a bad idea generally to spend high draft picks on catchers, or did we just get a bad roll of the dice with Clement?
I guess we can still hope for more out of Clement than Al Chambers or Tito Nanni.
How many top 5 picks have flamed out over the past 5 years? Is Clement’s case all that unusual?
Well, in the 2005 draft, the other players taken in the top five were Justin Upton (best prospect in baseball), Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun. So the other three college guys are already in the majors and the high school guy is in Double-A at age 19 and tearing the cover off the ball.
College hitters who go in the top five have a really good rate of return. So, yea, if Clement never becomes more than a role player, he’ll be abnormal for where he was selected.
Dave, did you consider Justin Lehr? He seems to be having a good year in Tacoma.
How dumb is it to have a pitcher pitch through an arm injury? Geez, our record in destroying young arms is frightening.
If Butler doesn’t tell the team he’s hurt, there’s nothing they can do. A lot of kids have a strong desire to impress the organization. I’m not assuming that the M’s are having Butler pitch through an injury on purpose.
Dave, do you think it’s a bad idea generally to spend high draft picks on catchers, or did we just get a bad roll of the dice with Clement?
I’d go with the latter.
So, if you were to look at Balentien’s BA/OBP/SLG splits by month, you’d come to the conclusion that he was a significantly better player in April than he was last year. In terms of helping the Rainiers win, you’d be right. In terms of evaluating his talent level, which is really what prospect analysis is all about, you’d be missing the point, though.
It’s interesting how singles seem to be one of the most high variance parts of offense, but they get counted in each and every part of BA/OBP/SLG. It seems like it’d almost be better to report (1B/AB)/(BB/PA)/(XBH/AB) instead of BA/OBP/SLG, though it’d take people so long to get used to the new averages that it’d take years for the switchover to occur.
It’s interesting, too, because I feel like you see some sluggers have years where their AVG/OBP/SLG looks absolutely dreadful on the surface, but when you break it down, their walk rate and isolated slugging is still pretty decent, and then the singles come back and they are just fine. Morneau in 2005 and Konerko in in 2003 come to mind. Eventually the singles started falling in again and they looked like good hitters again.
So maybe your point here has less to do with prospect analysis than it just has to do with hitter analysis.
Thanks for this great resource, Dave. It really is one of the few sources of pride we have as Mariners fans - the most informative team blog on the internets.
Dave, did you consider Justin Lehr? He seems to be having a good year in Tacoma.
We liked the Lehr signing during the offseason, because he gives the team another replacement level arm to add some organizational depth. But every organization has a bunch of Justin Lehr types. He’s a very common type of pitcher, and that makes his prospect status nil.
Eventually the singles started falling in again and they looked like good hitters again.
Chipper Jones in 2004, too. That year prompted J.C. Bradbury to develop PrOPS, because he was convinced that Chipper was just hitting the ball right at people all year. He was right.
Toss this year’s Sexson in that category, too. If the peripherals are strong, bet on a rebound.
I seem to recall that you/USSM were very high on the Wisconsin squad in general before the season. Is anyone there besides Lo and Triunfel particularly standing out, either as a surprise or a disappointment?
28. You never mentioned you were aware of it, Dave, nor gave any indication you were aware of it. When Tillman got promoted, you just assumed he was going to get bombed, and after two starts, you basically said, see, he’s getting bombed, the Cal League’s going to ruin his season.
Also, you’re basing your final judgment of Tillman’s High Desert career on two starts, while ignoring the last few consecutive horrible starts he had in Wisconsin before the promotion, and basing it on a park’s track record that hasn’t manifested the expected miserable failure on the rest of the staff like you said it would.
Also, isn’t Bakersfield’s park pactor somewhere around 1.01-1.02? Hardly the 1.35-1.45 range that High Desert sits at. And Bakersfield, aside from Mayberry and maybe one or tow others, doesn’t have a very imposing lineup.
You took a park’s track record and cut-and-pasted your expected result onto a talented prospect before and after two bad starts (that followed several consecutive poor starts from said prospect in a completely different environment).
I seem to recall that you/USSM were very high on the Wisconsin squad in general before the season. Is anyone there besides Lo and Triunfel particularly standing out, either as a surprise or a disappointment?
We were, and still are, high on the talent of the Wisconsin roster. They are, as a group, not anywhere near ready for full season ball, so the team stinks, but they’re by far the most talented team in the organization.
I’m not really worried about the struggles of guys like Liddi, Lo, or Halman. They’re overmatched by older pitchers, which is to be expected. I’m worried about Butler’s command and velocity going south, but it’s a disappointment more along the lines of “oh no, not another injured pitching prospect” moreso than “he’s not as good as we thought he was.”
Dave, thanks for doing this work. It’s great info.
What’s the chance that Clement’s slow bat is due to lack of confidence? Ie, he was way over-promoted coming back from the injury. He’s overwhelmed at Tacoma, so he just slaps at the ball to make some contact. Never feels good about taking a real swing. Etc.
I haven’t seen him play, but your description makes him sound very tentative.
Isn’t it unavoidable at this point to look at Clement and make the obvious comparison to Eric Munson? USC, lefthanded, power hitter, third overall pick, drafted as a catcher, didn’t crack the majors at that position, not a good hitter for average, occasional power, but with not much else to offer that’s basically a bust at that slot.
You never mentioned you were aware of it, Dave, nor gave any indication you were aware of it.
Here’s an idea - don’t assume I’m ignorant of a basic thing like where last night’s game took place.
When Tillman got promoted, you just assumed he was going to get bombed, and after two starts, you basically said, see, he’s getting bombed, the Cal League’s going to ruin his season.
To recap - I said before the promotion that Tillman wasn’t ready for high-A ball, and after two starts where he’s clearly shown he’s not ready for high-A ball, I pointed out that he’s performing like a guy that’s not ready for high-A ball. Man, I’m a bastard. I must hate the guy.
Also, you’re basing your final judgment of Tillman’s High Desert career on two starts…
I’ll give you $100 if you can find anyone who agrees with you that this is a rational interpretation of my comments.
Also, isn’t Bakersfield’s park pactor somewhere around 1.01-1.02?
http://firstinning.com/pf/
If you’re going to assume I’m ignorant of game locations, you probably shouldn’t be simultaneously ignorant of park factors.
And Bakersfield, aside from Mayberry and maybe one or two others, doesn’t have a very imposing lineup.
Bakersfield would win 120 games in the Midwest League. So, compared to what he’s been facing in his professional debut, I guarantee that line-up looked like murderer’s row.
You took a park’s track record…
No I didn’t.
and cut-and-pasted your expected result onto a talented prospect
I said he wasn’t ready for the Cal League. He’s not.
Would the M’s be better, worse, or a wash using Adam Jones in CF and Ben Broussard at 1B than Ichiro in CF and Sexson in 1B?
I’m looking at the potential for trades here down the line, and it’s looking once again like the M’s might be sellers. I’m definitely starting to think that Sexson and Ichiro should go for the future of the team.
I’ll give you $100 if you can find anyone who agrees with you that this is a rational interpretation of my comments.
Hey, Gomez, the price for my intellectual integrity is only $90…
What’s the chance that Clement’s slow bat is due to lack of confidence?
Batspeed is a physical skill. Confidence wouldn’t really have anything to do with it.
Isn’t it unavoidable at this point to look at Clement and make the obvious comparison to Eric Munson?
Yea, that comparison just jumps out at everyone.
Would the M’s be better, worse, or a wash using Adam Jones in CF and Ben Broussard at 1B than Ichiro in CF and Sexson in 1B?
Much worse. Ichiro is awesome. And please don’t turn this into a trade speculation post.
Nice post, as always. Is Jeremy Reed showing any signs of improvement so far this year? Can we expect anything from him this year, either as a bench player for the M’s or trade bait?
#51: Also, isn’t Bakersfield’s park pactor somewhere around 1.01-1.02? Hardly the 1.35-1.45 range that High Desert sits at. And Bakersfield, aside from Mayberry and maybe one or tow others, doesn’t have a very imposing lineup.
As Dave points out, you need to correct park factor for the overall characteristics of the league. A park factor of 1.00 in a league that has an overall factor of 1.20 ranks as a 1.20 park in the overall context of the minor leagues.
These data are for 2003 and so may not be completely accurate, but the general picture is should still be valid. As indicated, Bakersfield had on overall park factor of 1175. For comaparison left Bakersfied as a more hitter friendly park than any single park in any of the following leagues:
- South Atlantic
- Midwest
- Florida State (The FSL is to pitchers as the Cal league is to hitters)
- Carolina
- Texas (save for El Paso)
- Southern
- Eastern
- International
IOW - when Dave says that Bakersfield is a hitter’s park, he’s not kidding. Based on those 2003 data there were only about 6 parks in minor league ball (out of 120 total) that were more hitter-oriented than Bakersfield.
Note that two parks in the Cal League (High Desert and Lancaster) are so extreme that they cause a park like Bakersfield (the 3rd best hitters park in the Cal league) to rank only slightly above league average.
Nice post, as always. Is Jeremy Reed showing any signs of improvement so far this year?
Not really. He turns 26 in two weeks and is running a .750 OPS in the PCL. He still lacks any real power. He’s a fourth outfielder in the majors, and he won’t fetch much in trade.
I think that its interesting how often talk about how how the organization develops talent. Could we assume that with rapid promotions we are seeing the mariners believe that it is a sink or swim situation? Either a prospect has what it takes or they don’t and why not find out.
I haven’t seen Reed play this year, but his AAA stats look in line with last year.
From what I see he’s getting killed at home and hitting very good on the road, but that’s small sample theatre if there ever was one, and considering he’s in a pitchers park in a hitters league, those splits make sense.
re my post #60: I forgot to build the hyperlink before posting. Here’s the link to the adjusted minor league park factors for 2003:
More Data on Minor League Park Factors
Could we assume that with rapid promotions we are seeing the mariners believe that it is a sink or swim situation? Either a prospect has what it takes or they don’t and why not find out.
This is a pretty good way to sum up the M’s feelings on the matters, yea. As we know, the organization places a strong emphasis on intangibles, and the general feeling is that guys who are going to overcome adversity are going to be the ones who are successful, so by challenging these kids early, they find out who “has it” and “who doesn’t”.
In my opinion, it’s a load of crap.
#64, thanks!
65
I’d have to agree. If baseball prospects were an unlimited resource it would make a lot of sense.
Dave,
Its my opinion the mariners misused their top pick by essentially taking someone to help in their bullpen.
Do you think the mariners thought is that morrow is worth a number 1 pick with the help that he can provide in the bullpen? Or are they still hopefull that he will someday be a starter?
Its my opinion the mariners misused their top pick by essentially taking someone to help in their bullpen.
Fontaine took Morrow. Fontaine didn’t move Morrow to the pen. Those two decisions were made by different groups of people.
65: That’s the kind of organizational attidude that I, were I a 16 year old superprospect, would say: no, take your 3 million somewhere else, I’m signing with the Giants at half that…Seriously, though, that kind of philosophy must scare kids…
#70, seriously, if I were a 18 or 20 year old and someone offered me 3 mil, and I wanted to play baseball professionally, I’d probably just be happy to get to play, let alone become a millionaire. I doubt they think THAT much about those sorts of things.
70-
I think if you’re a 16-year-old superprospect, the idea that you would be one of the failures isn’t even crossing your mind.
OK, obviously the money might be an overriding factor for some people, but I doubt that a 16 year old is going to think too hard about how the team promotes people and how that might affect them.
Actually, most of these kids will view it as a positive - they all want to get to the majors as quickly as possible. Triunfel has a stated goal of being in the majors by mid-2009. Delmon Young wanted to be in the majors from the day he was drafted. These kids are often extremely cocky, and they want to get to the big leagues ASAP.
Okay, Dave, apologies if I mistook your intent with the Tillman paragraph. Given your past comments on High Desert and on how it would adversely affect Tillman, your paragraph simply read like an extension of that opinion.
Also, the information I had on park factors was dramatically different from the information you and Steve linked just now. Now I wish I had linked my source in my last comment. I’ll try and find it again and we’ll compare/contrast… though I now also recall this.
On Steve’s point that park factors relevant to the league are irrelevant compared to park factors across the country… how would distribution of talent among organizations affect that? Would orgs involved in the Cal League that choose to keep pitching talent away from the Cal League (the way the Mariners appeared to do so, save for when they promoted Tillman) further affect the park factors?
However, thanks for the cheap shots, as I was clearly irrational in seeing the comment below as you’re basing your final judgment of Tillman’s High Desert career on two starts.
Down in High Desert, Chris Tillman made his second start last night since getting promoted from Wisconsin, and it didn’t go well. It was never a good idea to put him in the California League at this point, and the early results are about as bad as we feared they would be.
I agree that Reed is a 4th OFer in the majors. He should be OUR fourth OFer in the majors. Why Ellison when we have Reed who could provide some credible defense and more than credible hitting against RH pitching?
On Steve’s point that park factors relevant to the league are irrelevant compared to park factors across the country… how would distribution of talent among organizations affect that
No, because park factors are generated by the variance of run scoring environments by the same players. We know Lancaster is a ridiculous launching pad of a hitter’s park because the aggregate of all pitchers - good prospects, marginal prospects, washed up veterans, whoever - perform significantly worse in that environment than they do in other environments.
The park factors don’t care whether the pool of pitchers is a bunch of guys who throw 98 or throw 84 - as long as the pool of pitchers is the same for the teams at home as on the road, we can generate real park factors.
If the teams were only loading up their elite arms to pitch in the pitcher friendly parks and throwing scrubs in hitter friendly parks, using 10 man rotations to pull it off, it would be a problem. But thankfully, they aren’t.
Dave I will be down in High Dessert country this July, Sounds like an 80 mile drive to watch the High Desert Mavericks may be in order. Thanks for the info.
Why Ellison when we have Reed who could provide some credible defense and more than credible hitting against RH pitching?
well, having him sit in seattle 80% of the time versus start in tacoma would seem like a fairly easy decision if anybody in the FO still thinks of him as anything approaching a prospect.
I have no idea what you’re talking about, Gomez. I didn’t take any cheap shots at you, and you’re highlighting a sentence that doesn’t support your claim. You might want to take a step back and re-evaluate your whole thought process on this discussion.
He should be OUR fourth OFer in the majors.
You could theoretically use Ellison as a pinch-hitter for Ibanez against a left-handed pitcher. You can’t with Reed.
You know, when I read a sentence that says:
“It was never a good idea to put him in the California League at this point, and the early results are about as bad as we feared they would be.”
I make the wacky assumption that the ” early results” refers to “put(ting) (Tillman) in the California League”- and that “early” means “not final”.
Obviously I’ve drank the USSM Kool-Aid, though. Mmmmm, Kool-Aid.
Can we spike the Kool-Aid? I’m sick of work. On the other hand, this is a great distraction for me. Thanks for your work, Dave.
How does the club view Eric O’Flaherty? They’re using him either as a one-out guy or a guy who goes more than one inning (and often more than 2).
Does Reed still have any trade value? Could we get a fourth OF who can hit righties in return out of him?
On the other hand, I guess I could add Chris Tillman hatred to the list of biases I’ve now been accused of having. Let’s see if I can remember the full list of stances I’ve taken that have been used as evidence that I hate the team, that I hate the farm system, that I want them to fail, and then I constantly underrate our prospects.
Jose Lopez wasn’t ready for the majors in 2004 or 2005.
Jose Lopez wasn’t going to play shortstop in the majors.
Mike Morse was a terrible defensive SS and would end up in the outfield.
Jeremy Reed was severely overranked by BP when they called him the #2 prospect in baseball.
Shin-Soo Choo was a fourth outfielder in the majors.
Bryan LaHair can’t hit.
Yuniesky Betancourt was pretty close to his peak at age 24.
Michael Garciaparra was a wasted draft pick.
And now, Chris Tillman isn’t ready for the Cal League a year after being drafted out of high school.
Am I forgetting anything? Because obviously, my anti-Mariner bias has really kept me from seeing the truth on all these issues.
#75:
“Also, the information I had on park factors was dramatically different from the information you and Steve linked just now. Now I wish I had linked my source in my last comment. I’ll try and find it again and we’ll compare/contrast… though I now also recall this.”
If you read the Dan’s replies to comments, you’ll note that that those data are intra-league only; they have not been corrected for the overall league environment. (See, for example, Szymborski’s comment #14.) In that context, they are similar to the BA park factors that I used as the raw data in the table I linked to.
I’m pretty sure that if you were to correct the data for league environment, it would play out pretty close to what I laid out using the 2003 BA park factors.
I’
I just wanted to point this out…
Shortstop A: .268/.328/.382 in the Midwest League as an 18-year-old
Shortstop B: .309/.342/.388 so far in the Midwest League as a 17-year-old
A = Miguel Cabrera
B = Carlos Triunfel
You say that Clement is playing more as DH than C. Not sure what this is based off of.
In 2006 in Tacoma Clement had 122 ABs as a catcher, and 111 as a DH.
In 2007 Clement has 102 ABs as a catcher, and 70 as a DH.
April of 2007 he had 11 games at DH and 13 at catcher. In May of 2007 he has 8 games at DH, and 15 games at catcher.
Since May 23 he played at both 4 times each.
Not saying anything about his abilities behind the plate, but he’s been playing more catcher this year in Tacoma than last year.
Also regarding his slower bat speed, how would that explain why he is still pulling the ball alot? Is he just missing the fastballs and pulling offspeed stuff?
Can we look to his home/road splits and success against LHP as any comforts?
I just wanted to point this out…
Yep. The compare superstar who played in MWL at an older age to Triunfel is my favorite past time right now.
88 — Let’s just hope Triunfel doesn’t turn into a 240-pound hulk who can’t move …
I’m overexaggerating, but only a little.
89 — I think he’s saying that he projects as a 1B/DH in the bigs, not what he’s playing right now.
You say that Clement is playing more as DH than C. Not sure what this is based off of.
My original sentence wasn’t written very well. He’s DH’ing more than was expected at the beginning of the year. Based on conversations I had with folks down in Peoria, the plan sounded like Clement would catch about 2/3 of the games and DH 1/3 of the games. Rob Johnson would catch the other 1/3, DH 1/3, and play the outfield occassionally.
Instead, they’ve basically just done the every-other-day thing, with Johnson and Clement alternating behind the plate.
Also regarding his slower bat speed, how would that explain why he is still pulling the ball alot? Is he just missing the fastballs and pulling offspeed stuff?
Pulling the ball has as much to do with timing of the swing as it does with batspeed. He could be starting his swing earlier to make up for the slower bat, allowing him to get the bat in front of the ball, but also causing him to get fooled more often. Since I haven’t seen him hit since spring training, I’m just guessing.
88 — Let’s just hope Triunfel doesn’t turn into a 240-pound hulk who can’t move
If he wants to hit like Miguel Cabrera, I could care less how fat he gets.
haha
Yes, Dave…you hate the Mariners. Why else would you host a Mariners Blog (considered best blog in the NW)! Why would you spend so much time and resource on the USSMariner.com other than to bring down the M’s and their “true” fans and subconsciously fill their minds with irrational evaluations to ensure that the team you truly love most can dominate the Mariners.
It’s time to come clean!!! Who are you working for Dave? The A’s? The Angels?
88. That just made my whole day.
86. I didn’t say you were underrating anybody, Dave, nor that you had any sort of bias against Chris Tillman (if anything, your commentary on the guy indicates you’re a fan of the guy). I was calling into question, right or wrong in doing so, your logic behind a belief that he was destined for failure in High Desert.
97.
I respect your comments, Gomez, but I don’t see where you’re coming from with this. Dave predicted Tillman would get shelled in the California League, and Tillman has gotten shelled in his first two starts, supporting the prediction. Two starts doesn’t prove anything, but Dave didn’t cite those two starts as proof, only as supporting evidence.
So is Justin Lehr just lucky this season, or overlooked? Is his lack of strikeouts holding him back?
Having never seen him pitch, he sure looks great on paper.
Dave, don’t forget the whole Papelbon/Lester/Reed fiasco, though I can see why you might want to.
what fiasco? That Finny reported the Ms would ask to get Lester or Papelbon for Reed?
101. I think darrylzero is referring to this:
http://ussmariner.com/2005/12/29/papelbon-and-lester/
Not one of Dave’s better moments.
I famously called Lester and Papelbon B+ prospects, the type of guys every team has in their organization, and “not special”.
Red Sox fans went crazy. I stand by my comments. I was pretty sure Papelbon would end up as a reliever, and he did. I’m still not sold on Jon Lester as anything more than a back-end starter, though obviously, I’m rooting for him considering all he’s been through.
100: How would Dave’s opposition to trading Reed for Papelbon or Lester demonstrate anti-Mariner bias? The list wasn’t Things Dave Was Right About, so your response is a non sequitur.
If anything, that example proves that Dave (like the rest of us) over valued Jeremy Reed. Proof that Dave is nothing but a Kool-Aid drinking homer.
Great post Dave, at least the future might (assuming Bavasi gets the axe and doesn’t trade all the youngsters for “proven veterans”) be a little brighter than the present. Not to complain and admitting I have no idea how hard it is to fix, the future 40 link on the left still says 4/30/07 although it does take me to the updated list.
Speaking of Morrow, it turns out that, wow, he has 4 plus pitches! You spend all this time watching Mariners games, and yet you can still learn something about the team from a guy who probably hasn’t seen more than a few ESPN highlights.
I think everyone here would trade Reed for Lester or Papelbon in a heartbeat. Not a big deal that Dave missed on that. Remember when the M’s refused to deal Jose Paniagua to the Yanks for Alfonso Soriano?
That’s one of the great things about baseball - you never know what could happen in a couple of years.
So who knows? Matt Tuiasasopo might be putting up a .300/.380/.550 line in a few years.
98. I’m not questioning the prediction so much as the reasoning for the prediction, as the factors previously mentioned in making said prediction aren’t necessarily the factors that are producing Tillman’s struggles right now. Making a prediction that comes true doesn’t necessarily make the reasoning that led to said prediction correct.
I’m not questioning the prediction so much as the reasoning for the prediction
And you’ve been informed repeatedly that you misinterpreted that reasoning. Drop it already.
#107, apparently he uses the following scale too describe a pitchers pitches:
Plus
Devistating
Totally Unhittable
Mad wicked monkey sh*t spectacular
Weapon of Mass Destruction
He’d use Plus Plus instead of plus, but that sounds too much like what nerds do to themselves when their alone (C++).
So many good arms have come through the M’s farm system but the fact is pitchers should rarely be drafted out of high school.
I have always been of the opinion community college or higher(University/College)for pitchers.Position players are very different cause they often take longer to develop cause of the offensive side of pro baseball and cause of quicker pace on D.
However you come across that rare pitcher that you can’t pass up and he is a high schooler.
Tillman is such a one and His struggles are actually good sometimes mistakes.
Poor outings teach a young arm better where he’s going wrong than all the tape reviewed and advise from a pitching coach could.
Cause when the coach is telling where he making his mistakes and shows him the tape he more likely to LISTEN and LEARN.
I see Matt Tuiasaopois in my estimation the in house heir to 3rdB for the M’s if he can maintain his consistent offensive #s and continue to improve with this glove and I believe without a doult he will.He’s finally getting it.
112. I thought nerds left alone rosterbated until their forearms went numb from, you know… all that typing.
109: You don’t see the problem with developing a starting pitcher by placing him in an environment that makes it difficult for him to pitch more than four innings per start?
Look Gomez, here’s a suggestion - assume that I’m not an idiot, okay?
You took my original posting of “hey, M’s promoted Tillman to High Desert, bad idea, that park is horrible” to mean that my objection to the idea was solely based on the disaster that is High Desert stadium. Why you took it that way? I don’t know. But for whatever reason, this entire conversation took place because you decided to assume that my reasoning was based on a flawed premise.
If you’d have just asked “hey Dave, why don’t you think this is a good idea?”, odds are I’d have given you a pretty detailed answer. Instead, you took the lame way of presuming that I didn’t know what I was talking about.
I think I’ve earned the benefit of the doubt. If you don’t, then you probably shouldn’t care what I say anyways.
no. I remember when the Ms (and the Expos) asked for Soriano when the Yanks were looking for a reliever, and the Yankees said no.
Dave, how close is Jose “The Aircraft Carrier” De La Cruz to making your FF list?
He’s in the 41-50 range. The low ERA is masking the fact that he’s not throwing strikes or blowing hitters away. It’s something of a mirage.
Dave, what about Andrew Barb? His numbers have looked pretty good thus far in his career - high K rate, decent walk rate, good K/BB ratio. Is this a case of a guy that posts good numbers but doesn’t excite scouts about his future chances? Is he a little too old for the levels he’s pitching to get too excited about?
Minor league relievers have to be pretty special to be valuable. Barb’s not special. The minors are full of Andrew Barb type guys.
Fair enough. You’re probably looking for more eye-popping numbers like what Lowe was putting up last year when you’re talking about relievers. Just curious what (if much) separates Barb from someone like Austin Bibens-Dierkx?
It isn’t just about the numbers - you can have eye-popping numbers as a minor league reliever and still not be a prospect. Colter Bean has been proving this for years.
Dirkx throws from a low sidearm slot, giving him the potential to be death on right-handed hitters. His delivery is deceptive enough to potentially make up for a lack of stuff.
Dirkx throws from a low sidearm slot, giving him the potential to be death on right-handed hitters. His delivery is deceptive enough to potentially make up for a lack of stuff.
So, what are they working on in his delivery? Something to be concerned about?
This is only moderately on-topic, but I’ve always wondered why people use BB/AB. Since walks are not at-bats, wouldn’t it make more sense to measure BB/PA, and then to use K/PA as a reasonable comparison?
#125, that is the best way for SO and BB. Per PA not per AB.
Yeah - if you look back I’ve done a lot of pitcher evaluations where I try and measure outcomes as a % of total batters faced. per/9 IP is an even worse measure of counting stats.
I think everyone here is all to excited to categorize Clement as a bust. Let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt. He hasn’t even played a full season start to finish.
Last year he was promoted to AAA after an injury and only 15 AA games under his belt. Blame management for that. Alex Gordon was allowed to flourish the entire season in AA and was minor-league POY. Looks like the Royals managed to rush him this season, and so yes, he is in MLB ball with a a sparkling .170 BA.
No doubt Clement has had a slow start this season in Tacoma, but all reports show that his catching has improved, and even though his BA sucks at .246, his power numbers are not that bad. He is batting .361 in his last ten games, and seems to be hitting a midseason stride. My guess is he’ll be around .265 by season’s end, with decent power numbers.
Obviously we would all like him to be a little further along, but I have a feeling that this guy is going to breakout. I’ve seen him a couple of times live this year, and I think this ’slow-bat’ stuff is BS.