I know how he feels
“I like to go out to pitch every five days,” he said. “When you’re on the DL, you do nothing. I was so bored.”
Us too, us too.
Mariner fandom lacks something when Felix isn’t throwing. HoRam getting shelled? That HoRam is starting means Felix is only a few short days away. Why, you could almost — wow, that ball was hit ridiculously hard — count the hours until — another walk? — we get to see a good pitcher take the mound again.
Upgrading WordPress
Should be pretty smooth here. Update: yup.
Game 34, some schmucks versus Felix
7:05! FSN! Kelvim Escobar versus Felix Hernandez! He’s so awesome even Vlad cowers to face him in his first start back!
Felix Day! Oh yeah, it’s Feelix Day, la la la la, Felix Day, it’s the only day for me because it’s Felix Day, hot-cha-cha-cha, Felix Day…
And look at this lineup he’s facing.
LF-B Willits
3B-S Figgins
SS-R Cabrera
CF-S Matthews
1B-L Kotchman
DH-R Hillenbrand
2B-S Izturis
C-R Napoli
RF-S Murphy
Ha ha ha hilarious Mike! Now turn in the real lineup card. What?
Because Its Been Too Long
Happy Felix Day.
Rainiers Game Thread
Since it’s an off day for the Mariners, let me encourage you to tune into the dulcet tones of Mike Curto as the Rainiers take on the Albuquerque Isotopes in what is very likely to turn into another football game. The Rainiers won 19-9 yesterday, as Adam Jones doubled his season HR total with two bombs and Wladimir Balentien also took advantage of the launching pad in New Mexico.
Justin Lehr goes for the Rainiers, while the Isotopes hand the ball to former 1st round pick Kenny Baugh. He was the 11th pick in the 2001 draft, had shoulder surgery a few months later, and has spent the last five years trying to get his arm strength back.
During the rain delay, Rainiers announcer Mike Curto was kind enough to answer some questions in the thread below. Check it out if you missed it.
20 Percent Grades – The Pitching
Continuing on with the 20 percent grades.
Felix Hernandez, #1 Starter – Grade: Incomplete
Felix was the best pitcher in baseball through his first two starts, throwing up back to back dominating performances and announcing to the world that the King was taking his throne. Then, the elbow started to hurt, the fanbase went into a collective panic, and we had to go a month without the best player on the team. Even with the injury, he still single handedly won the Mariners two games, which is more than most of his peers can say.
Jarrod Washburn, #2 Starter – Grade: A
Whether it’s through non-repeatable skills and unskilled opponents or not, Washburn tossed up 48 innings with a 2.64 ERA. Like other early season surprises John Maine and Braden Looper, he’s clearly not this good, but in terms of a retroactive grade, that doesn’t matter. The results have been all-star quality, and the bump the team has gotten from his performances are the main reason this team hasn’t sunk without Felix.
Miguel Batista, #3 Starter – Grade: F
Batista is the poster child for the inconsistency of guys who pitch-to-contact. He’s given up three runs or less in four of his seven starts, but gave up 8, 6, and 7 runs in his other three starts. His underlying skilset isn’t any different than it has been in previous years, so the large fluctuation in his results are mostly due to effects of his opponents, but there’s no way a guy with an ERA of 6.99 while pitching half his games in Safeco gets anything better than an F at this point in the year.
Horacio Ramirez, #4 Starter – Grade: F
He’s been a disaster. He’s struck out zero or one guy in four of his six starts, and like Batista, his success is basically tied to how well the other team does at getting the balls in play to fall in. Consistency is impossible with this kind of pitcher. Much is made about Ramirez’s Home/Road splits, but no one mentions the competition he’s faced in those appearanecs. He got whacked around by the Angels, Red Sox, and Tigers on the road, and shut down the Rangers, Royals, and Yankees at home. The huge splits between Safeco and non-Safeco games will shrink dramatically as the year goes on.
Jeff Weaver, #5 Starter – Grade: F
Do we really need to write anything here. He’s had the worst six start run of any starting pitcher in Mariner history. Opposing batters are hitting .446 against him. His two-seam fastball is not a major league pitch, but he continues to throw it over the plate hoping to reinvent himself as a groundball pitcher. The M’s finally made up an injury to get him off the roster, and fans everywhere hope they never see him again.
J.J. Putz, Closer – Grade: A
Despite shelving his splitter, he’s continued to be a dominant relief ace, getting outs with little more than a fastball that he can blow by people. The injury scare from spring training is all but forgotten as J.J. continues to assert himself as one of the games premier relief aces.
Brandon Morrow, Setup – Grade: B
Morrow’s had some memorable strikeouts in big situations, including the huge strikeout of Alex Rodriguez yesterday. Remarkably, he’s getting people out with one pitch that he has marginal command of. Hitters come to the plate knowing that they’re going to get a steady diet of fastballs, yet they’ve been unable to hit them in spite of that. He’s walked 12 guys in 14 innings, so there’s still cause for concern, but he’s shown the obvious value of having a strikeout reliever to pitch in the 8th inning.
George Sherrill, Setup – Grade: A
The unheralded member of the bullpen. He doesn’t throw as hard as Putz or Morrow, but he’s ridiculously tough on left-handed hitters and has improved his command to the point that he’s useful against RHP as well. As the year goes on, the M’s would do well to hand him more high leverage situations, because he’s earned the right to be trusted in critical games.
Chris Reitsma, Middle Relief – Grade: B
Reitsma’s change-up has been an effective outpitch for him, and his command has been good enough to serve as a useful reliever, even if he doesn’t have top-notch velocity. He’s given up a pair of critical homers and been usurped by Morrow as the primary setup man, but there’s nothing wrong with having Reitsma as your 4th best reliever.
Eric O’Flaherty, Middle Relief – Grade: B
O’Flaherty’s work on Saturday in shutting down the Yankees was a big step forward towards getting him out of the LOOGY pigeonhole. He’s got enough pitches to be a quality reliever against both sides, and he’s done good work for the team in a variety of roles. There’s still some more growth potential here as well.
Mateo, Green, White, and Woods, Mopup – Grade: D
The quartet of no-outpitch replacement level gusy have been mediocre to downright bad, but since they’ve been almost exclusively used in games that have already been decided, it hasn’t mattered much. The M’s could do better than these guys, but in the end, this is the least important role on any team in baseball.
Overall Pitching – Grade: D
Felix was great for two starts, Washburn’s performance has been the pleasant surprise of the year to date, and the bullpen has been good, but the that’s all undone by the #3, #4, and #5 starters performing at a rate below what you’d expect if you called up any random arm from Double-A. The team could use a couple more major league starting pitchers, and I’m still rooting for Brandon Morrow to work on his breaking ball, because he’s going to need a second pitch before the year ends.
20 Percent Grades – The Offense
With yesterday’s win, the Mariners passed the 20% mark of the season, as they have now played just over 1/5th of the 2007 season. And they passed that mark over .500 while playing the tough part of their schedule and only getting two starts from Felix Hernandez. Looking at the big picture, you have to take the results so far and be pretty happy. The team lost the guy it could least afford to lose and were able to keep their heads above water while waiting for him to return. Felix returns tomorrow, the schedule over the next month is significantly easier than the past month, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever have to see Jeff Weaver pitch again, so hope abounds in Seattle.
Since we’re at the 20 percent mile marker and it’s an off day (don’t get too used to these), I figure its time for an early season report card. Let’s see who has been helping the team the most through the first stretch of the year. Here’s the position players – we’ll do the pitching in another post later today.
Kenji Johjima, Catcher – Grade: A
He’s been the early season power source, leading the team in slugging percentage and providing offense from the catcher spot. He has the highest OPS on the club despite still being allergic to walks. His defense still isn’t great, but the runs he generates with his bat more than make up for it.
Richie Sexson, First Base – Grade: F
There are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve as the season goes on, but no matter how you slice it, 6 weeks of a first baseman hitting .183/.282/.391 while playing bad defense is a drag on the team. He still leads all the other hitters in walks, and he won’t keep hitting balls right at guys all year, but he’s been a bad baseball player so far.
Jose Lopez, Second Base – Grade: C
While finding some of his power stroke from last year’s first half, Lopez hasn’t shown any real growth this year. He still doesn’t walk, he’s not driving the ball with consistency, and he doesn’t have the bat control to be a high enough average hitter to make that package work really well. On the plus side, his defense has been solid. There’s room for more with Lopez, and the M’s should hope that he starts to take some steps forward sooner rather than later.
Yuniesky Betancourt, Shortstop – Grade: D
Betancourt’s taken a step back across the board so far. While he still possesses well above average range, he’s made too many misplays on balls that should be easy outs, and if he’s not playing like an elite defender, he’s not helping the team. He’s still just an okay hitter whose value is tied directly to his defensive performance, and so far, it hasn’t been good enough. He’s still a valuable piece going forward, and I’m not too worried about the error rate staying this high, but he hasn’t been helping the team this year.
Adrian Beltre, Third Base – Grade: C
Beltre’s off to his usual slow start, but unlike the Bad Beltre we’ve seen in years past, this one isn’t totally lost. He’s hitting for power and walking occassionally, but he just hasn’t hit enough singles yet. Offensively, there’s not a huge difference between what Beltre and Sexson have given the Mariners, but Beltre’s abilities to play a pretty terrific defensive third base still make him a far more valuable player.
Raul Ibanez, Left Field – Grade: F
This is the Raul Ibanez we all thought we were getting several years ago – the guy with the nice swing who hits for a high enough average but doesn’t walk much and has no power. He’s hitting .275, but only 8 of his 36 hits have gone for extra bases, including just one home run. When this guy is your left-handed power, you’re in trouble. He also continues to deteriorate defensively, and watching him chase balls in the alley is now nothing short of painful. Let’s hope for a rebound, but honestly, he looks pretty much done as a useful player.
Ichiro Suzuki, Center Field – Grade: B
If I told you Ichiro was hitting .286, you’d probably assume that he was in one of his offensive funks and was hurting the club. But, he’s actually not. His secondary skills have made up for the lower than usual batting average, as he’s second on the team in walks and third on the team in extra base hits. He’s got the third highest OPS on the team while playing a quality defensive center field, and that continues to make him a highly valuable player. He’s gotta start running more, though.
Jose Guillen, Right Field – Grade: A
Here’s something you probably don’t know – Jose Guillen has been the third best right fielder in the American League this year. Vlad and Ordonez are off to MVP quality starts, but Guillen’s the next best guy through the first chunk of the season. His shoulder is fine, he’s driving the ball with consistency, and he’s drawing more walks than usual while also leading the league in HBP. An .830 OPS out of anyone in Safeco is valuable, but when it’s a guy who was picked up as a reclamation project on a one year deal – well, this couldn’t have gone any better so far. He’s right behind Johjima and Ichiro in the team MVP race.
Jose Vidro, Designated Hitter – Grade: D
There are nine DH’s that have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Jose Vidro ranks 9th in OPS among those hitters. Yes, he’s hitting .307, but he has a total of five extra base hits, has drawn just 8 walks, and has thrown in 7 double plays to boot. Toss in the fact that his batting average is being driven by a team high seven infield hits, and Vidro doesn’t exactly look like he’s got a lot left to offer. The Mariners might be happy with the production they’re getting from Jose Vidro, but that doesn’t mean we should be.
Bloomquist, Broussard, Burke, and Ellison, Bench – Grade: B
This is basically all Jamie Burke, who has been a revelation compared to the putridity Rene Rivera offered last season. Willie’s been his usual terrible self, Broussard’s been solid in very limited playing time, and Ellison is simply around because he gives the illusion of a more versatile bench.
Overall Offense – Grade: C
Sexson and Beltre need to start turning some of those outs into singles while maintaining their power and walk rates, and it would help if Lopez/Betancourt would stop getting themselves out so often. But Johjima and Guillen have made up for most of the shortcomings, and the offense hasn’t been as big a problem as it could have been.
The Jason Davis Deal
The M’s acquired Jason Davis from the Indians on Sunday, a week after Davis was designated for assignment by the Indians. Davis is essentially a slightly better version of Sean White – he throws primarily two-seam fastballs and gets more groundballs than flyballs, but he’s not a GB dominant type guy. He doesn’t have an outpitch and his command comes and goes. He was a decent reliever for the Indians last year but was terrible to start 2007, which is why the Indians gave him the boot.
The M’s gave up a player to be named later, and despite some hopeful speculation from Indians fans, it’s almost certainly not going to be a player of any real consequence. Last year, the M’s gave the Indians non-prospect LHP Shawn Nottingham as the PTBNL in the Broussard/Choo swap. They might get a slightly better almost non-prospect pitcher this time around, such as Robert Rohrbaugh, but I have no concerns that the M’s included one of their better talents in this deal. It’s a minor deal, and the Indians are going to get a minor prospect.
Davis probably takes Sean Green’s spot on the roster. Green and Ryan Rowland-Smith will be heading back to Tacoma in the next few days.
Game 33, Yankees at Mariners
Andy Pettitte (two ts twice) v Horacio Ramirez. 1:05 FSN.
The Yankees run the same lineup out twice, the M’s sub Burke in for Johjima.
Courtesy of Fangraphs, which I’ve been playing around with since Dave proved a particularly interesting point yesterday:
Pettitte: 5.65 K/9 3.98 BB/9 0.42 HR/9 16.5% line drives
HoRam: 3.46 K/9 4.85 BB/9 .69 HR/9 22.4% line drives
Team offenses, by rank:
AVG: Yankees 3rd, Mariners 12th
OBP: Yankees 3rd, Mariners 23rd
SLG: Yankees 11th, Mariners 14th
So a really good offense, particularly adept at hitting for average and drawing walks, faces a pitcher who gives up a lot of walks and pitches to contact, as they say in the broadcasts.
Meanwhile, an impatient team with decent contact hitters who have some power but can’t draw walks face a groundball pitcher who doesn’t give up home runs.
Game 32, Yankees at Mariners
7:05, KSTW. DeSalvo v Batista.
AL starters, as a group: 4.73 ERA, 944 IP, 1031 H, 124 HR, 309 BB, 637 K
or 1.03 H/IP, .13 HR/IP, .33 BB/IP, .67 K/IP
Batista: 5.70 ERA, 36.1 IP (36.3), 44 H, 6 HR, 9 BB, 21 K
or 1.2 H/IP, .17 HR/IP, .25 BB/IP, .58 K/IP
That doesn’t include park adjustments, defense, or anything. Now, that seems like it’s not far off an average starter. But the ERA would make him a below-average starter in Tampa Bay (worst ERA in MLB), the strikeout rate is right in line with the 2nd-worst team in baseball at striking out opposing batters (the Mariners), and the home run rate… well, the team that’s given up the most home runs, Toronto, has a rate about 10% lower.
What I’m saying is that while Batista hasn’t given up 90 runs in the first inning to attract a lot of attention to himself, he isn’t good. He’s not even average. He kind of sucks so far, in fact, and there’s no way the M’s signed him to a three year, $25m deal for him to put up these kind of numbers.
DeSalvo’s last good season, if you’re curious, was in 2005, when in the second of three stints in Trenton he put up some decent numbers. Their rotation essentially wiped out from by injuries and Igawa’s ineffectiveness, the Yankees have been throwing out guys like Rasner (with 5 starts, he’s behind only Andy Pettitte), Chase Wright, Jeff Karstens, and tonight, DeSalvo. As a unit, their cannon fodder has been more effective than HoRam, Weaver, and Batista, who combined cost the Mariners over $18m (and Rafael Soriano).