More on Mateo
The Times uncovers Seattle Police investigating something… well, you can go read it. Actually, don’t. You’re better off. I wish I didn’t feel like I need to post it.
Game 28, Mariners at Tigers
HoRam v Bonderman. 4:05, FSN. Today’s contest: guess Sheffield’s line tonight.
M’s field Ichiro-Vidro-Ibanez-Sexson-Broussard-Beltre-Johjima-Betancourt-Lopez
Detroit bats Pudge leadoff!
Tickets for Sunday’s Game
We try to limit this kind of thing, but allow me to use the blog for my own personal gain for a minute – my brother and I are putting together a nifty weekend for my parents, as their anniversary is on Friday and Mother’s Day is on Sunday. I’ve already got them dinner at Canlis on Saturday night, and now I’m looking to get them some good seats to Sunday’s game.
If you have some 100 level seats for Sunday (and preferably a parking pass) that you’d be willing to sell for face value, email us and we’ll work it out.
Three Trades That Should Happen Tomorrow
One of the basic tenets of market economics is that free trade allows all parties involved to benefit by exchanging goods that are of more use to others than they are to themselves. You have lots of berries, I have lots of meat, let’s make a deal and we’ll all have better meals.
Baseball generally doesn’t work this way. Teams become overly attached to their own players and generally don’t make trades to balance their organizational talent levels, but instead horde all their players until they believe they are contending, then pay through the nose to acquire the missing pieces.
Sometimes, however, it just makes sense for two organizations to exchange pieces. There are several scenarios playing out right now where clubs have giant holes at specific positions and are overloaded at other spots, making for an inefficient use of resources. For the good of all involved, and because trades are fun, here are three deals that major league clubs should pull off tomorrow.
1. Tampa Bay trades OF Rocco Baldelli to Atlanta for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Tampa has too many outfielders. They’ve had too many outfielders for a couple of years now. With Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, and Elijah Dukes, they’ve already got three guys who should be playing everyday. Add in Jonny Gomes as a fourth OF with some power and the reality that B.J. Upton should probably end up in the outfield in the not too distant future, and they don’t need Rocco Baldelli. What they do need is a catcher, however, as Dioner Navarro is pretty horrible and it’s the one position they don’t have any real depth in at the minor league level.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has handed Matt Diaz an everyday job in LF after jettisoning Ryan Langerhans, and he’s a much better fit as a RH platoon partner or fourth outfielder. He doesn’t provide enough offense to make up for his below average defense, and at 29 years old, he’s not exactly the future. There’s also the issue of Andruw Jones impending free agency with no internal replacement, and the Braves are in need of an outfielder, preferably one who can play left field this year and potentially move to center next year. In Jarrod Saltalamacchia, they have the best catching prospect in the game, a switch-hitter with power and a good approach at the plate. In the nice-problem-to-have department, however, Salty has this guy named Brian McCann’s ahead of him on the depth chart, and that won’t be changing anytime soon.
Salty would be an immediate upgrade over Dioner Navarro for the D’Rays, and provide them with a young star at the one position they don’t have a young star. Baldelli would provide an upgrade over Diaz as the Braves make their pennant push this year and an in-house fallback plan should Andruw Jones not re-sign over the winter. The Braves improve their team using only a resource that has little chance of impacting their team, while the Devil Rays continue to load up for a hostile takeover of the A.L. East beginning in 2009.
2. Chicago trades OF Jacque Jones to Anaheim for SS Sean Rodriguez.
Like the Devil Rays, the Cubs have too many outfielders. Their defense needs Felix Pie in center field, but with Jones, Floyd, Murton, and Soriano running around, they have too many guys fighting for at-bats in a league without a DH as it is. Jones is a consistently underrated player, combining good defense with power against RH pitching, but he’s not significantly better than the guys the Cubs could easily replace him with.
Besides Vlad Guerrero, the Angels just can’t hit. They have gaping holes at LF and DH, with Garret Anderson and Shea Hillenbrand providing the normal below average performance that we’ve come to expect from two of the game’s more overrated players. Playing in the worst division in baseball, their pitching staff is poised to carry them to another playoff spot, but the offense needs help and needs it soon.
Sean Rodriguez has a good knack for hitting but hasn’t made himself a permanent home on the diamond yet, as his defense at short is questionable at best and he’s also spent some time at second base, third base, and in center field. With the Cubs lack of upper level SS prospects, they can afford to hope his bat outweighs his defensive issues at the position. The Angels have no real need for Rodriguez with talents like Erick Aybar ahead of him on the depth chart as it is.
3. Seattle trades OF Wladimir Balentien to Minnesota for RHP Scott Baker.
The Jeff Weaver experiment looks like a failure, and Horacio Ramirez isn’t doing much better. Cha Baek is a AAAA pitcher with no upside, and the Mariners lack upper level pitching depth behind him. So, without making a move, there aren’t many internal options that can help this team patch the back-end of the rotation, or be counted on as useful contributors to the 2008 rotation. The M’s need another effective starting pitcher, and it would help if he didn’t cost $10 million on a multiyear contract.
The Twins, meanwhile, continue to try to contend while punting the left field position. Josh Rabe, Jason Kubel, and Jason Tyner are not the kind of guys who should be splitting at-bats at a power position for a team with playoff aspirations. The Twins could use a left fielder with some power, and with Torii Hunter’s looming free agency, it would help if he was right-handed and under contract for more than just one year.
Meanwhile, the Twins have no need for Scott Baker, who is stuck in the glut of quality pitching prospects toiling away in Rochester. He’s behind live-armed top prospect Matt Garza and strike-throwing machine Kevin Slowey, as well as southpaw Glen Perkins, all of whom are waiting for Sidney Ponson to implode to get a shot at the Twins rotation. Oh, and they get this guy named Francisco Liriano back next year. Baker is buried in Minnesota, but has shown he’s a major league quality pitcher, throwing up a nifty 16/62 BB/K rate in half a season last year and is currently dominating the International League (3 walks, 30 Ks in 30 IP). He’s a strike-thrower without a dominant outpitch, but his stuff is several grades ahead of guys like Cha Baek, and he’d instantly become the Mariners 4th best starting pitcher. He’s also 25 and not eligible for free agency for 5 more years.
Wladimir Balentien, meanwhile, is tearing up the PCL, hitting .357/.430/.625 as a 22-year-old. He’s cut down on his strikeouts and the increased contact has allowed his secondary skills to be lifted by a decent batting average for the first time in several years. He has prodigious raw power and fits into the Twins mold of aggressive toolsy players. As he’s going to be out of options after this season, he’ll have to stick on a major league roster next year, and he’d fill an obvious hole for the Twins. The Mariners are already struggling to find a spot in the line-up for top prospect Adam Jones, and its unlikely they’ll want to break in two young outfielders at the same time next year. As a RH pull hitter, Balentien’s not a great fit for Safeco Field, and by bringing back a young arm that can help the rotation both now and in the future, he’ll provide some immediate value to the franchise.
Line-up changes
So, Grover finally got around to adjusting the line-up. Vidro moves up to 2nd, Johjima goes to 3rd, Beltre to 7th, with the rest staying the same. Predictably, it didn’t matter much, as the team still couldn’t hit Matt DeSalvo. In general, batting orders are pretty overrated, and where a guy hits in the line-up isn’t as important as whether or not he should be in the line-up to begin with.
However, it’s one of those small things that can make a difference over the course of the year if the line-up is optimized correctly. For every spot in the batting order you move down, you lose approximately 18 at-bats a year. The #1 guy gets 18 more at-bats than the #2 guy, the #2 gets 18 more at-bats than the #3 guy, etc… So, by being aggressive about getting your best hitters into the top of your batting line-up, you can create some extra runs for your team by having good hitters get extra at-bats in lieu of your bad hitters.
Yesterday’s line-up, in that regard, isn’t much better than the standard line-up we’ve seen all year. Essentially, it gives Johjima at-bats in lieu of Beltre, which is a lateral move. Getting Vidro out of the #3 hole is a good start, but moving him up to #2 only serves to give him even more at-bats throughout the year, which isn’t really the goal the team should have in mind.
What would an optimal line-up with this roster look like? I’m glad you asked.
Vs LHP: Ichiro-Vidro-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Johjima-Ibanez-Lopez-Betancourt
Vs RHP: Ichiro-Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Broussard-Johjima-Lopez-Betancourt
Ibanez’s power hasn’t turned the calendar to 2007 yet, but it’s still hard to argue that Jose Vidro is a better hitter against RHP than Ibanez is. Despite all the lauding for Vidro, Ibanez sees more pitches per plate appearance and has a recent history of higher walk rates, so he’s a good enough fit for the #2 slot on this offense. As an added benefit, managers who still don’t realize that Ichiro can beat the tar out of LHPs will be tempted to use their LH relievers to face Ichiro-Ibanez back to back later in games. Advantage, Ichiro.
Broussard is the only Mariner on the roster right now with any kind of significant LH power. The line-up needs a guy swinging from the left side in the middle of the order who can drive the ball, and he’s a better hitter than Vidro anyways.
And yes, I’m advocating leaving Sexson in the middle of the order. He’s not this bad, and I don’t believe there’s anything to moving a guy down in the order to “get him going”. Sexson’s a notorious second half hitter who improves dramatically as the weather gets warmer, and his low average simply isn’t sustainable given his other skills. He’ll end the year up near .240 to .250, and I don’t see any point in overreacting to his slow start by pretending that there’s a better guy on the roster to hit clean-up. It’s a line-up of flawed hitters, and in an ideal world, he wouldn’t have to hit clean-up, but on this roster, he does.
Now, of course, we won’t see this kind of dramatic L/R line-up changes from Grover, who is in love with doing the same thing every single day, and we won’t see more Broussard because Vidro’s getting .312. But if the M’s are serious about optimizing their offense to get as many runs out of this hacktastic group as they can, that’s my suggestion.
The Mariners deplore domestic violence in pitchers
The M’s have suspended Mateo using his unexcused absence rather than any actual event, and you can make of that what you will. Here’s Baker’s blog article “Mateo speaks, apologizes.” but this really struck me:
“The Seattle Mariners as an organization deplores domestic violence,” Armstrong states. “There is simply no excuse for it. Over the years we have endeavored to be at the forefront of efforts to confront and eradicate domestic violence.”
The Mariners brought in Al Martin because they thought he could help them hit. The whole incident where he bopped his backup wife a couple times in a squabble? They talked to him on the phone and judged that he was past it. Come on down.
Carl Everett’s strange journey through the family courts (summary of same), where they found he’d allowed his kids to be pretty brutally beat by his step-mom (at least.. the case was quite scary). They needed left-handed sock, so they talked to him, and judged that there was no issue. Sign on the dotted line.
Game 27, Mariners at Yankees
Miguel Batista v Emergency Starter DeSalvo.
Bloomquist likely to get another start, but he’s clutch, right, so he should be able to scratch this out.
The Yankees, adjusted standings-wise, are 16-13, and the M’s are 11-15. Make of that what you will.
Sunday Night Baseball
It’s Lincecum vs Hamels in about 40 minutes. It’s not the Mariners, but this is a game you want to watch.
Game 26, Mariners at Yankees
Washburn vs Rasner, 10:05 am.
Willie in for Lopez today.
More totally unjustified Vidro hatred
I’m just trying to get ahead of the comment curve with that title.
We’re about a full sixth through the season, and Vidro’s over a hundred at-bats, which means we can look at the stats a little more seriously.
He’s hitting .307/.358/.376 — making him, in terms of replacement level, two runs over replacement level. Which is bad. Not that this is a good-hitting club right now, but for Kenji.
And a side note: let’s compare Vidro with someone he’s frequently and entirely without merit compared to at the same age.
Vidro, 2007: 24 G, 101 AB, 109 PA, 31 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 13 R, 8 RBI, 8 BB (0 IBB), 9 K, 4 GDP
X, 1995: 27 G, 96 AB, 110 PA, 34 H, 12 2B, 4 HR, 22 R, 16 RBI, 14 BB (5 IBB) 18 K, 2 GDP
or
Vidro, 2007: .307/.358/.376
X, 1995: .354/.436/.604
Yeah, that’s Edgar at the same age. Let’s forgo wasting any more time on that comparison. So what’s up with Vidro, anyway? What part of his glorious prime hasn’t been restored? I’ll compare him here to his 2000-2002 prime with the Expos.
Walks: he’s not walking as often
Strikeouts: not striking out as often, either
Power: the power’s almost entirely gone. In 2000-2002, his isolated power was .210, .167/ .176. Now it’s .069. It’d been on the decline for a while, but this is almost lights out. He 176 out of 194 players who qualify for the batting title right now, tied with Joe Crede. That’s really bad.
Average: the average is good, a little off the career high, but his batting average on balls in play is .322 – significantly off his career highs.
A somewhat bright spot: his ~1.11 ground/fly ratio (varies a little depending on what stat source you’re looking at) is way off his career rate of 1.6. With his legs shot, there’s no way he should be trying to put the ball on the ground and racing it out. And he’s not doing that nearly as much as he once did.
But here’s the downside – he’s not hitting line drives. At his best, he hit about 22% line drives, and now he’s down to 16%. His fly ball percentage, at 39%, is a full 10% above his career average. But at least he’s getting them out of the infield – his infield fly ball /total fly ball rate is 2.8%, which is so low it’s shocking.
As hard as this may be to believe, the percent of his hits that are infield hits (infield hits/ground balls) is historically high, at 12.2%.
Or, to put this together: he’s not walking or striking out as much, so he’s putting the ball in play, and producing a lot more fly-outs to the outfielders. When he’s putting the ball on the ground, he’s been luckier than you’d expect. Yow.
Another indicator of his absent power: his HR/FB ratio is 5.6%, which is where it was last year, which was a dropoff from the 2005 8%, which was a drop from the days when he had some power, and was at 12% and sometimes more than that.
What’s all that fancy stat quoting really mean, though? There’s no evidence that Vidro has any power remaining. You can go to your local nursery and buy high-quality dirt that runs faster than he does. He hasn’t improved his plate discipline with age. All of his value now is tied up in his batting average, and his batting average so far’s included a fair component of luck. If he’s going to make the most of the dying ember of his talent, it’s going to be what we’ve seen so far – trying to loft the ball a little, hoping it drops in front of a charging outfielder. But there’s a problem with that.
Look at his hit chart for Safeco: all singles, all but two dropped in a little shy of halfway to the walls. His fly outs include a cluster popped behind second, and a few fly outs farther back, but mostly they’re the exact same spots as the singles.
If you were facing Vidro, you’d bring your outfielders in, and then Vidro’d be destroyed as a hitter. Other teams have all this information, and people on the payroll that work it out. This adjustment’s not going to take smart teams long.
And if those hits are what’s keeping Vidro from absolute ineffectiveness and teams can turn them into outs, what then? Does he adjust, or does the Moose come out with a giant comedy hook and pull Vidro out of the batter’s box at the 0-50 mark?
We gotta hope for adjust.
Update: as noted in the comments, Vidro’s been praised for his plate approach. This is ridiculous. Vidro sees 3.4 P/PA. Of regulars, Ichiro is tops at 3.91, followed by Beltre (3.85), Ibanez (3.78), and Betancourt (3.49). He’s tied with Guillen and ahead of only Lopez (3.15)