M’s Draft Board

Dave · June 7, 2007 at 6:35 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Okay, today’s the day. Based on conversations with people inside and out of the organization, this is what I believe the M’s draft board looks like heading into the first round. The order isn’t as important as the names themselves, as there’s several spots (#7 and #8) where I basically just had to pick one, because both Aumont and Schmidt have their supporters within the organization. However, I’d be stunned if the pick wasn’t one of these 11 eleven guys.

1. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
3. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS
5. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
6. Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
7. Philipee Aumont, RHP, Quebec - No High School
8. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS
10. Beau Mills, 1B/DH, Lewis-Clark State
11. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS Arkansas

Notably absent are Scott Boras’ three “out of the box” prospects. The Mariners won’t consider drafting Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, or Matt Harvey, and they’re rooting like crazy for all three to go in the top ten. The problem, however, is that signability questions about the trio are threatening to push all three out of the top half of the first round, as no team is as of yet giving indications that they are willing to pay Boras’ over-slot premium for these guys.

That creates some problems for the M’s, because it means that the teams picking ahead of them are going to be picking guys off who, on talent, should be available at #11. Philppe Aumont, for instance, is a guy the M’s would have a really hard time passing over, even with their strong desire to go with a college arm who can get to the majors quickly. However, with Aumont being the easiest sign in the first round, he could very well end up going in the top 5, and it will be an upset if he slides to #11.

The same goes with Daniel Moskos, who we talked about on Tuesday. It sounds like San Francisco won’t let Moskos get past them at #10.

If the draft breaks out as expected, the out of the box guys will slide past the Mariners, and the guys at the top of their board will be picked off one by one before they are on the clock.

So, at this point, the likely selection is Arkansas LHP Nick Schmidt. If you like Jarrod Washburn, you’ll like Schmidt. 88-92 with a four seam fastball, above average change-up, mediocre curveball, succeeds with command, lacks an outpitch, very little upside, and projects as a #5 starter in the majors. A few days ago, I called him a left-handed Joe Blanton. That was probably too generous, in retrospect, as Blanton’s stuff is a tick better across the board than Schmidt’s.

In his favor, Schmidt has been durable, knows how to pitch, and isn’t that far away from the majors. The M’s would likely bring him to spring training next year and let him compete for a rotation spot, and he’d replace Horacio Ramirez as the back-end starter whose reasons for optimism are his team’s home park and defense.

Schmidt’s not a lock to be the pick - the M’s are hopeful that Ross Detwiler or Josh Vitters will slide because of their agents requests for above slot money, but both are considered far more signable than the Boras trio, and it’s very unlikely that either gets out of the top ten. The M’s also really like Matt Dominguez, and if he’s around at #11, it will make the pick more interesting, at least, as he some big fans in the organization. And, there’s still Casey Weathers, the closer from Vanderbilt who has the velocity and slider to be effective in the majors this year.

However, if you put a gun to my head, I’m saying that Nick Schmidt is the guy the M’s go with. Aumont, Moskos, and Dominguez could be selected if they end up at #11, or they could go with the high power reliever over the back end starter if Weathers is there. But you can forget about pretty much anyone else. The M’s aren’t going to take Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey, and most of the other names bandied about aren’t as high on the M’s board as the guys we’ve covered.

We’ll find out for sure in a few hours. Personally, I’m rooting for Philippe Aumont, a 6′7 groundball machine with all kinds of projection, but I don’t think the M’s will have the chance to call his name out. In the end, it’s probably going to be a low risk, low reward college pitcher.

Yipee.

Morning Edit: As things begin to shake out, we’re getting a better idea of what’s going to happen. With KC settling on Josh Vitters, the likelyhood of the M’s getting a chance at HS 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez have gotten significantly better. They like Dominguez a lot as an athletic third baseman with a good bat and great glove, and if Moskos isn’t there, the M’s may go offense.

Afternoon Edit: Jim Callis is now reporting that the Royals have flip-flopped, and are going to take Mike Moustakas over Josh Vitters at #2. Vitters is basically a lock to go to the Cubs at #3, however, which then leaves Dominguez as the option for anyone looking for a HS 3rd baseman in the 4-10 range. Weathers just became a lot more likely pick. Nuts.

Comments

124 Responses to “M’s Draft Board”

  1. Mere Tantalisers on June 7th, 2007 6:51 am

    Schmidt doesn’t sound like much. How would you compare his stuff to Baek’s? Or I guess considering his repertoire and handedness, how does he stack up against Feierabend?

  2. nfreakct on June 7th, 2007 6:54 am

    Out of the top 10, whose most likely to take a shot at the Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey group? I’ve been reading the Cubs aren’t as willing to blow the budget this year and have a chance to make a huge reach with their pick. Would a team like the Nationals make life a little easier for the Mariners and draft one of the Boras three?

  3. phil333 on June 7th, 2007 7:09 am

    I hope you are wrong Dave but I fear you aren’t. :(

  4. JH on June 7th, 2007 7:10 am

    The Seattle Mariners: building their future one relief pitcher at a time.

  5. darrylzero on June 7th, 2007 7:17 am

    My main question is if it’s fair for me to be righteously indignant that they won’t just take the Boras clients. We played the good guys last year by passing on Miller, why do we have to do it again? Isn’t this the kind of year where it might be ok to overpay a draft pick a little? We could use a little help.

  6. Dave on June 7th, 2007 7:30 am

    Schmidt doesn’t sound like much. How would you compare his stuff to Baek’s? Or I guess considering his repertoire and handedness, how does he stack up against Feierabend?

    His stuff is more Feierabend than Baek. Baek’s a junkballer, while Feierabend and Schmidt have at least passable fastballs.

    Out of the top 10, whose most likely to take a shot at the Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey group?

    Baltimore and San Francisco are being talked about as possible landing spots for Wieters, but it doesn’t sound like anyone in the top ten is going for Porcello or Harvey. They both could slide to the Yankees at #30, who could care less about slot recommendations and the commissioner’s desire to hold down bonuses.

    The Seattle Mariners: building their future one relief pitcher at a time.

    I was amused by the justification that, by taking a reliever this year, they can move Morrow back to the rotation next year, so it’s essentially like drafting a starter. Except, you have to ignore the fact that they’d be using this year’s first round pick to try to salvage last year’s first round pick, which tells you just how badly the Morrow thing has been handled.

    My main question is if it’s fair for me to be righteously indignant that they won’t just take the Boras clients.

    In order to believe that it’s worth the hassle to deal with Boras and his out of the box prices for these guys, you’d have to believe they are far and away better than the other prospects in the draft. Last year, I felt that way about Miller (and I still do). This year, I’m not as convinced. Porcello’s a good arm, but the M’s actually have Aumont ranked higher on talent. Same thing with Harvey - he’s got velocity, but he’s not a sure fire thing. None of these guys are Josh Beckett.

    So, this year, I think drafting the guy that won’t be a problem to sign makes some sense, because the vast talent gap between them and some other guys just isn’t there. I’d take Aumont over Porcello too.

  7. JH on June 7th, 2007 7:36 am

    Including Weiters?

  8. bergamot on June 7th, 2007 7:40 am

    So, the M’s will spend much money on J*ff W**v*r, but won’t splurge on a Scott Boras’ prospect.

    But hey, I listened to KJR yesterday, and learned that the M’s have a young upcoming team, an outfield with great defense and a lot of power, a pitching staff that’s turned it around, the best utility player in baseball, and a manager who knows how to win - so we don’t need no stinking draft choices.

  9. Dave on June 7th, 2007 7:40 am

    Well, the M’s just aren’t drafting a catcher with their first pick. They look at Johjima, Clement, Johnson, and Moore and see a ton of depth. I see a 30-year-old and some guys with pretty big flaws. But, the M’s believe that they’d have to shift Wieters to first base because of who they already have on hand, and his value gets reduced pretty significantly if you move him from behind the plate.

  10. OscarTehGrouch on June 7th, 2007 7:44 am

    Just a reminder…

    The draft will be televised on ESPN2, starting at 2 PM ET

  11. JH on June 7th, 2007 7:47 am

    So they wouldn’t take by far the best college positional prospect because he doesn’t fill an immediate organizational need? Seems to me that’s the first lesson you learn in Bad Drafting 101.

  12. Dave on June 7th, 2007 7:48 am

    Yea, pretty much.

  13. JH on June 7th, 2007 7:48 am

    And I know that there are other reasons (money) they’d stay away from Weiters, I’m just saying, as justifications go, saying that a pick would give you a glut of catching prospects doesn’t quite do it for me.

  14. JH on June 7th, 2007 7:52 am

    I’m assuming by your post that they have absolutely no interest in Heyward. Do they not like him, or are they just singularly focused on pitching at this point?

  15. Dave on June 7th, 2007 7:54 am

    He’s not in their top eleven guys. They like him less than they like some other guys.

    They’re not singularly focused on pitching - there’s a good chance they’ll take Dominguez if he’s there - but they’re heavily leaning towards pitching. They’ll only take a hitter if it’s one of their top guys falling, and that’s not Heyward.

  16. tgf on June 7th, 2007 7:54 am

    So in the context of being in “save your jobs” mode, how would a guy like Schmidt fit in? Showing your bosses that you can parlay the #11 pick into a #5 starter with no upside would seem to accelerate your chances of getting fired, since in addition to not being able to assemble a ML roster or pick a field manager, you now show that you are bad at the amateur draft.

  17. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 7:58 am

    While I think Dominguez is a bit of a stretch at 11, I’ll sure as hell take him over Schmidt, Moskos or Weathers!

  18. Dave on June 7th, 2007 7:59 am

    Me too, Conor, me too.

  19. Bilbo on June 7th, 2007 8:09 am

    I hope you are right about their order because I think Dominguez will be there and possibly Aumont as well. I am hoping Weathers gets popped ahead of them as I think he is the worst case, which means that is who they end up with. Sigh.

  20. junglist215 on June 7th, 2007 8:11 am

    Why do I have this creeping feeling that I’m going to be throwing things at the TV like last year.

  21. Dave on June 7th, 2007 8:12 am

    I’ll be stunned if Aumont is there at #11. There are at least three teams in the top 10 who like him an awful lot, and he’s literally the easiest sign in the first round.

  22. tgf on June 7th, 2007 8:19 am

    Just curious, why do the M’s prefer Dominguez over his teammate Moustakas? Is Moustakas unlikely to stick at third in their eyes?

  23. Cynical Optimist on June 7th, 2007 8:19 am

    Oh, man, I want Dominguez.

  24. Dave on June 7th, 2007 8:21 am

    Just curious, why do the M’s prefer Dominguez over his teammate Moustakas? Is Moustakas unlikely to stick at third in their eyes?

    Moustakas is advised by Boras, for one, but there’s also a huge difference between their gloves. Dominguez is a gold glove third baseman in the making, a Ryan Zimmerman/Evan Longoria type who will save 10+ runs a year with his defense. Moustakas is 50-50 to end up at first base.

  25. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 8:22 am

    how far along is dominguez’s bat from the major league level? two, three years?

  26. Cynical Optimist on June 7th, 2007 8:22 am

    It would be a nice bit of luck if they take the high-ceiling hitter (and superb defender) only because the low-ceiling college pitchers they covet are all gone.

    Right thing, meet wrong reason. Glad you could make it.

  27. Dave on June 7th, 2007 8:24 am

    There’s questions about his bat. He’s got raw power, but he struggled to make adjustments this year and he doesn’t have a great approach to hitting.

    Offensively, he’ll need some time. He’s probably 4+ years away from contributing in the show, but that doesn’t mean the Mariners would give him 4 years in the minors.

  28. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 8:29 am

    meaning they would not take him, trade him away, or they would rush him up?

  29. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 8:30 am

    Aumont an easier sign than Weathers or Schmidt? Huh.

    The Dominguez update gives me some hope, although it is still fleeting at this point. If this goes down the way we all think it will, and we DRAFT A #5 STARTER WITH THE 11TH PICK IN THE DRAFT, it raises some questions:

    1. Do Fontaine and Co. recognize the M’s glaring problems with developing young talent, thereby creating the need for a college arm close to ML ready?

    2. Does the FO believe Tillman and Butler are sure things, thereby obviating the need for ceiling? They must be seeing something I don’t.

    3. Do they believe college arms are wise investments? I’d question that.

    4. Is it really about money? Sure, they tell you that it’s about getting the best talent, but in the next breath, they warn against pursuing players who have signability problems because of they price they ask for. Which is it, fellas?

    5. Does this FO really just not get it? Have Lincoln and Co. assembled a group of incompetents?

    6. Is ownership holding Fontaine back from getting the best talent?

    I am trying to give the benefit of the doubt and understand why they’d take Schmidt, but it is hard to do.

  30. gwangung on June 7th, 2007 8:34 am

    5. Does this FO really just not get it? Have Lincoln and Co. assembled a group of incompetents?

    Yes.

    (Or, let’s just say that I have been less than impressed with the people outside of the GM; my gut tells me that this is where the real problems lie).

  31. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 8:34 am

    or 7. Does this have more to do with helping Bavasi (and Hargrove) keep his job than we realize?

  32. zzyzx on June 7th, 2007 8:35 am

    I thought the main advantage of having Bavasi around was for Draft Day…

  33. Dave on June 7th, 2007 8:37 am

    Aumont an easier sign than Weathers or Schmidt? Huh.

    Aumont has no interest in going to college.

    1. Do Fontaine and Co. recognize the M’s glaring problems with developing young talent, thereby creating the need for a college arm close to ML ready?

    No, they just prefer a guy who can help very soon.

    2. Does the FO believe Tillman and Butler are sure things, thereby obviating the need for ceiling? They must be seeing something I don’t.

    No, they don’t think anyone’s a sure thing, but they do have a lot of guys they’re already waiting on, while the upper levels of the system are thin.

    3. Do they believe college arms are wise investments? I’d question that.

    They think college arms are the safest picks in the draft.

    4. Is it really about money? Sure, they tell you that it’s about getting the best talent, but in the next breath, they warn against pursuing players who have signability problems because of they price they ask for. Which is it, fellas?

    It’s a balance. If you think one guy is 1% better than the next, but he wants twice the money, then you take the other guy.

    5. Does this FO really just not get it? Have Lincoln and Co. assembled a group of incompetents?

    I’ve called the organization incompetent before, and I won’t back off of that, but I wouldn’t include Fontaine in that category.

    6. Is ownership holding Fontaine back from getting the best talent?

    In some senses yes, and in others, no. Fontaine won’t pick Porcello, Wieters, or Harvey because he knows ownership won’t agree to their bonus demands. But, he’s not in love with those guys to the degree that it’s a big deal to him. The guys we’ve talked about the M’s drafting - Dominguez, Moskos, Weathers, and Schmidt - are all ranked in the top 10 on the M’s board. Fontaine won’t feel like he’s reaching if he takes any of them.

  34. Dave on June 7th, 2007 8:38 am

    I thought the main advantage of having Bavasi around was for Draft Day…

    It is. Fontaine’s still one of the best scouting directors around. Last year’s draft was the best the organization has had in decades, maybe ever.

  35. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 8:44 am

    No Bumgarner on the M’s board? There’s a good chance he’ll be there at 11.

  36. The Ancient Mariner on June 7th, 2007 8:47 am

    I like Dominguez a lot–I actually think he’d be a really good pick at #11. That said, I’ve been hoping for Aumont for months now . . . bummer.

  37. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 8:47 am

    Jim Callis has Arizona taking Schmidt. We can only hope…

  38. VanillaGorilla on June 7th, 2007 8:48 am

    What is the best site to follow the draft? I’m at work and can’t watch it. In the past I think I’ve done the mlb.com thing, is baseball america better or is there another site that is good to follow it (other than this one of course)

  39. katal on June 7th, 2007 9:03 am

    If only because it means that drafting him means that we’re not drafting Schmidt or Weathers, I’m very interested in Dominguez. I’ve heard a lot of comparisons of him to Ryan Zimmerman. Is that fairly accurate?

  40. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:07 am

    MLB.com has probably passed BA for real-time coverage. BA’s just understaffed, especially with Callis being on ESPN for television.

    BA will still blow everyone else away in terms of accurate information, though.

  41. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:10 am

    i’ve heard a lot of comparisons of him to Ryan Zimmerman. Is that fairly accurate?

    With the glove, yes. Bat? No. I’d go more Joe Crede or Brandon Inge. The power is definitely there, but Zimmerman is a polished hitter who can spray the ball all over the field and has great contact skills. Dominguez is more of a swing-from-the-heels kid who has a lot of power but can be pitched to.

  42. jbrown8 on June 7th, 2007 9:23 am

    Dave, Larry Stone says that you think the M’s are focused on Moskos - although it also sounds like you think he won’t be on the board at #11.

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2003737414_maridraft07.html

    Do you get referenced as a source much? That seems pretty cool.

  43. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:29 am

    I’m guessing Larry got that from Tuesday’s post. If I knew he was going to source me, I’d have given him better info last night. Oh well.

  44. Colorado Mariner Fan on June 7th, 2007 9:33 am

    Nah…give him mediocre info on the off chance someone reads the blog who can influence other draft choices. Can’t hurt to get a little USSM influence added to the draft mix.

  45. jbrown8 on June 7th, 2007 9:37 am

    Just out of curiosity, are there any prospects this year from NW high schools or colleges? I always like to follow local kids. Obviously (I think), there are no Travis Sniders or Tim Lincecums this year, but is there anyone potentially interesting?

  46. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:40 am

    UW LHP Nick Hagadone could be in the M’s mix at #52 if they don’t go with a reliever at #11. He’s big, he saw a velocity spike this year, and he’s not that far from the majors, plus he’s white and local.

    After that, high school SS Travis Mattair, RHP Greg Peavey, and RHP Julian Sampson look like 3rd-5th round guys.

  47. Mike Snow on June 7th, 2007 9:46 am

    Supplemental first round seems like a more appropriate-to-value place for a reliever if you’re looking for one to free up Morrow for a rotation future.

  48. Jim Thomsen on June 7th, 2007 9:48 am

    Dave:

    I’m glad you to hear you start to talk about the draft beyond the first round. As a group, how do you assess the level of worthiness of guys who will be available in the second round?

  49. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:50 am

    Because the supplemental round is larger than it’s ever been (34 picks), the 2nd round is now basically the 3rd round. In other words, comparisons of value between same-round picks of past and present are basically out the window now, because the supplemental round has grown to the point that that every round after the 1st is now worth less than it used to be.

  50. dw on June 7th, 2007 9:50 am

    Goldstein over at BP was saying Aumont is dropping because no team will claim they’re taking him. Are the teams sandbagging? And why would they sandbag on Aumont?

    And why would the M’s take a major project where the payoff may be 5 years off when it’s pretty clear this is a save-your-ass payoff-in-2008 pick for Bavasi and Co.?

  51. Spanky on June 7th, 2007 9:55 am

    Please please PLEASE not another #5 SP.

  52. Dave on June 7th, 2007 9:56 am

    Goldstein over at BP was saying Aumont is dropping because no team will claim they’re taking him. Are the teams sandbagging? And why would they sandbag on Aumont?

    KG wrote that two days ago. A lot has changed in two days.

    And why would the M’s take a major project where the payoff may be 5 years off when it’s pretty clear this is a save-your-ass payoff-in-2008 pick for Bavasi and Co.?

    Because, at some point, the difference in value is too great between the down-the-road guy and the help-soon guy.

  53. Spanky on June 7th, 2007 9:59 am

    I had always heard that Bavasi had a “good relationship” with Boras (especially after signing Beltre and Sexson to big dollars).

    Doesn’t Boras owe the M’s now? Don’t we get a buddy “discount” with him now?

  54. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:01 am

    That’s not how it works.

  55. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 10:03 am

    53 - How is Boras going to explain that to his client?

  56. Mike Snow on June 7th, 2007 10:05 am

    Dealing with Boras on Proven Major League Veterans is not necessarily the same as dealing with Boras in the draft, where he’s trying to get his clients market value despite a system he considers unfairly rigged. Also, Boras does not give discounts. Not even to his grandmother.

  57. Spanky on June 7th, 2007 10:07 am

    Okay…I was TIC on that Boras comment about signing. Don’t want to be accused of going off topic. Move on please!

  58. L. Jacob on June 7th, 2007 10:08 am

    Why is Parker so low on the M’s draft board? His stuff and upside seem great, and the Cubs were thinking about him at # 3 before Vitters became a possibility, according to BA.

  59. Spanky on June 7th, 2007 10:10 am

    I noticed that most on the list of potential drafts are either Pitchers or 3B prospects. Is that considered the M’s biggest need in the org?

  60. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:14 am

    This just happens to be a strong draft for HS third baseman.

  61. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:15 am

    The Cubs were looking at Parker at #3 for signability reasons. The M’s would really prefer a college arm, as Philippe Aumont is the only HS arm that they really value highly.

  62. kentroyals5 on June 7th, 2007 10:16 am

    is Mayo on mlb.com off his rocker or is there any chance we draft 1B Sean Doolittle (1B Univ. of Virgina)

  63. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 10:17 am

    Spanky- have you ever seen Jerry McGwire?

  64. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:18 am

    Doolittle is a guy the M’s like, but not at #11. He’s in the mix at #52.

  65. joser on June 7th, 2007 10:20 am

    If you’re looking for “local” guys in the draft, the MLB site allows you to filter for “home state”: filtering for WA gives 57 hits

  66. dw on June 7th, 2007 10:21 am

    So why, if the owners are so concerned about slotting, are they going this roundabout way about doing it? Between the new unsigned pick comp and the nasty stares from Selig, it’s bordering on collusion. It doesn’t seem like the MLBPA doesn’t care that much about the draft, so why couldn’t they just set up a contract scale for the first round?

  67. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:22 am

    They’d have to negotiate hard and fast slotting with the player’s union, and the union wouldn’t agree to it.

  68. kentroyals5 on June 7th, 2007 10:23 am

    64-Mayo’s mock draft twice had us picking Doolittle at #11….same team only 40 picks off…guess you gotta give some people credit for maybe being a round off with a selection

  69. shortbus on June 7th, 2007 10:24 am

    Dave, why would the union be unwilling to budge on slotting? It, by definition, affects only people that aren’t currently in the union. I would think it would at least be on the table for negotiation…something they’d be willing to give up if they got something in return.

  70. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:26 am

    The players have agents, and the agents are firmly against slotting.

    Plus, the players have no desire to give anything to the owners unless they absolutely have to.

  71. dw on June 7th, 2007 10:32 am

    Jonathan Mayo now has the M’s taking Sean Doolittle.

  72. msb on June 7th, 2007 10:32 am

    amazing what 100 years of the reserve clause does for player/management relations.

  73. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:33 am

    Not at #11.

  74. kentroyals5 on June 7th, 2007 10:35 am

    73-I hope thats not the mantra we have after we take him at #11

  75. Sports on a Schtick on June 7th, 2007 10:36 am

    Churchill has the M’s taking Beau Mills, with the top nine on Dave’s list already being selected.

  76. dw on June 7th, 2007 10:39 am

    IOW, Jason and Dave are working from the same list. Which either means their information is dead-on, or Jason should credit Dave already. :)

  77. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:39 am

    From an M’s source:

    “We like Doolittle, but a lot of people would have to come off the board before we took him at #11.”

  78. kentroyals5 on June 7th, 2007 10:41 am

    77-That is the Mariners giving a sweeping statement that they can turn back to and say “so and so, and so and so were taken, so we took Doolittle…we said if people came off the board, and they did.” YUCK

  79. dw on June 7th, 2007 10:42 am

    It’s interesting how league drafts reflect the league’s values.

    NFL: Long, reflective, business meeting
    NBA: Gimmicky, open-air market feel
    MLB: Byzantine, rigged in favor of the owners

  80. shortbus on June 7th, 2007 10:43 am

    The MLB “DraftTracker” is just an index of players…I don’t see a page that will let me follow the draft. Does anyone have a link to page that actually lets me see who has drafted whom? Or is MLB being dickish and trying to force me to watch MLB.tv?

  81. Cynical Optimist on June 7th, 2007 10:44 am

    Dave,

    Based on your afternoon edit, not sure I follow why Dominguez is less likely to be there at 11 just because Vitters goes from 2 to 3. Am I mis-interpreting?

  82. MedicineHat on June 7th, 2007 10:44 am

    For what it’s worth, the Fish had one of the “draft experts” who assign percentages to wh teams will get. He put the mariners at 80% chance they get 6. Casey Weathers.

    Also, starting at 11am I’ll be watching the draft on ESPN2 via my location free TV. Yippee

  83. Grizz on June 7th, 2007 10:45 am

    To get draft slotting, the owners would have to give up something like earlier eligibility for arbitration, but for obvious reasons, the owners consider the benefits from the current arbitration rule significantly more valuable than saving one or two million dollars on one prospect every June.

  84. Dave on June 7th, 2007 10:46 am

    When Vitters was going to KC, Jarrod Parker was going to Chicago, pushing Moustakas down as the top HS hitter in the 4-10 range. With Moustakas-Vitters going 2-3, Parker is the one who takes the fall, probalby ending up at #12 to the Marlins, while Dominguez takes his spot as the HS 3B for any team in the 4-10 range looking for a young hitter.

  85. MedicineHat on June 7th, 2007 10:46 am

    #80….according to espn.com, they are showing the draft live on the web on ESPN 360.

    http://broadband.espn.go.com/espn360/

  86. scraps on June 7th, 2007 10:46 am

    All the drafts are rigged in favor of the owners. The whole idea of a draft is anti-labor.

  87. tait644 on June 7th, 2007 10:49 am

    Considering how strong the MLBPA is, I don’t necessarily think the draft is rigged in favor of the owners.

  88. Cynical Optimist on June 7th, 2007 10:49 am

    Got it. Thanks.

  89. scraps on June 7th, 2007 10:54 am

    87: The MLBPA is stronger than the NFL union, certainly, but they still caved on the last labor agreement. Anyway, the MLBPA doesn’t care very much about the draft.

    I’m open to hearing in what way the draft isn’t rigged in favor of the owners. They get sole right to negotiate with the players they draft. That seems pretty rigged in their favor to me.

  90. PositivePaul on June 7th, 2007 10:56 am
  91. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 10:56 am

    Who should get the right to negotiate with the players they draft, besides the people that draft them?

  92. gwangung on June 7th, 2007 10:59 am

    The whole concept of a draft is rigged towards owners.

  93. scraps on June 7th, 2007 11:02 am

    91: If you’re a player, obviously it would be better if every team had the right to negotiate with you.

  94. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:03 am

    I like this stuff being on TV.

    Come on Dominguez!

  95. gag harbor on June 7th, 2007 11:03 am

    Owners and MLBPA are here to stay… Let’s talk players and picks on this post

  96. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:04 am

    Obviously, but there doesn’t seem to be a fair way to do that.

  97. MedicineHat on June 7th, 2007 11:05 am

    LOL - TV coverage…”major league baseball has sent some dignitaries (cut to a picture of Darryl Strawberry).”

    Ouch.

  98. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:07 am

    Never mind…god…bring back the Conference calls.

  99. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:07 am

    Is it suppose to echo in a draft room?

  100. scraps on June 7th, 2007 11:10 am

    96: When you say “there doesn’t seem to be a fair way to do that”, I assume you mean there isn’t a competitively balanced way to do that. That may be true — though free agency hasn’t destroyed competitive balance in any sport, and baseball did pretty well before the draft was instituted, and international signing isn’t rigged against the players like the draft is — but even if it is true, competitive balance seems to me a poor trade for restricting the employment rights of players in a job they’re only going to be able to perform for a limited part of their life. That much is just my opinion, and of course reasonable people can disagree about whether the draft is on balance good or bad; but I don’t see how anyone can reasonably disagree that it favors the owners.

  101. scraps on June 7th, 2007 11:12 am

    Owners and MLBPA are here to stay… Let’s talk players and picks on this post

    I’m sure Dave of Derek will tell us to shut up if they want us to. Thanks.

  102. Steve Nelson on June 7th, 2007 11:17 am

    How is the entire concept of a draft rigged toward owners? Let’s consider the ways.

    We’ll start by assuming that you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and you’re joining the labor force.

    But you can’t negotiate with accounting firm you wish, nor may accountants who are interested in hiring you contact you directly. Instead, there is a draft in which the one employer who selects you is the only one you are allowed to sign with. If you don’t like the firm that drafted you, you’re only option if you want to continue in accounting is to take a job with a tax-prep firm such as H&R Block (that’s probably the accounting equivalent of playing baseball in an independent league) and maybe wait until next year to try your luck in the draft again.

    ****

    Now, if you as an accounting grad happen to think that is exactly the system that would work best, I suppose you will conclude that talent drafts are fair and reasonable. In fact, if that is your bent, you’re probably wondering why the concept of talent drafts isn’t expanded beyond professional sports.

    It really doesn’t make any difference how strong the union. If a person doesn’t have the ability to solicit and receive multiple offers, the deck is inherently stacked against that person.

    I think that for most of us, though, we would consider the deck stacked against us if we were only allowed to negotiate with one employer and our only alternative if we didn’t like what we were offered was to not work in our chosen profession or to work at a level far below our apparent abilities.

  103. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:21 am

    stuck at work…can’t watch…how many minutes do they have b/w picks?

  104. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:22 am

    5

  105. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:23 am

    Who was the last accountant trying to win a world championship and get signed for a couple million dollars? Sports are not regular jobs…

    Very few top prospects would go play for Kansas City for half the price of a competitor with money. Some clubs would have problems stocking their minor leagues with any sort of talent.

  106. PositivePaul on June 7th, 2007 11:24 am

    M’s = screwed now. Dang.

  107. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:26 am

    don’t the royals need pitching?

  108. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:28 am

    They don’t need a 3rd or 1st baseman…

  109. Otto on June 7th, 2007 11:29 am

    bakomariner

    No they have Gil Meche!

  110. terrybenish on June 7th, 2007 11:30 am

    Union doesn’t represent the kids being drafted, so its a little strange that the negotiations occured.

  111. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:33 am

    they must be drafting on talent, and not need…

  112. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:34 am

    WOO! Moskos off the board!

  113. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am

    ROFLMAO!!! MOSKOS!

  114. F-Rod on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am

    Damn..I he looked pretty inticing

  115. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am

    i take it you guys didn’t want him…lol…

  116. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    And BTW - if you’re bummed out being a Mariners fan, just be glad you’re not a Pirates fan.

  117. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    well…pitt did trade their closer to atlanta…

  118. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    Orioles might actually want a reliever here.

  119. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:39 am

    after what we’ve seen the last three days…they have to take a pitcher…

  120. lokiforever on June 7th, 2007 11:39 am

    102 Steve Nelson

    The main difference is that in the private sector of businesses, there’s no lip service to the notion of competitive parity , just an aversion to monopolies. In pro sports, there is an effort, better in the NFL than MLB, to keep games competitive. The M’s, nor any team would want to compete with the Yankees for every draft pick, and while the players might like it in the short run, it would lead to weak competitive contests, lower fan interest, fewer gate receipts at cities other than LA / Boston/ New York. It would start the path down a slippery slope.

    In private commerce, as long as I’m not subjected to monopolisitc pricing, and collusions, I don’t care if E&Y is 10X better than Price Waterhouse, because they recruit out of college better and pay their new grads more. I’d rather have that choice to pay more and get a better product.

    Interesting analogy, but different in too many areas to really apply here. (The elitist athlete and high salaries was already brought up) The baseball player who doesn’t like his contract with KC, can always fall back on his accounting degree.

  121. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:40 am

    This draft is going well so far.

  122. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:40 am

    Or someone to block the wild pitches apparently…

  123. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:41 am

    go to the updated post for dave and the rest…

  124. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 12:13 pm

    YAY! We didn’t F that one up! Or at least we don’t think so as of now…
    Good to see them do the right thing instead of grab a random guy that can help next year.

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