Crazy
Dave · June 12, 2007 at 9:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners
We deal in probabilities a lot here on the blog. Sometimes, a game could care less about probability. Jarrod Washburn walks 5 guys in 6 innings and only gives up 2 runs, he he gets an RBI single. Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie destroy pitches for 300 foot flyouts. Carloz Zambrano pinch-hits. Jose Vidro almost goes yard, then Turbo actually scores from second on a single by Willie Bloomquist while not running hard all the way or sliding into home plate. Alfonso Soriano draws a four pitch walk.
This game was a middle-finger to probability. It was crazy, it made no sense, and it was awesome.
To borrow from Lookout Landing, Putz wooooooooooo.
Would like to see other options at 3B than our very own budding star Willie. For the sake of argument, I’ll throw out some options…
Willie “MVP Grit” Bloomquist
Adam Jones (he was a SS prior to being moved to center…why not?)
Raul Ibanez (there is a guy that plays for Cleveland named Raul Ibanez that plays 3B…maybe our Raul can also?)
Why in the hell did Garcia have the stop sign up with two out?! Vidro was right to go, then wrong to stop, then wrong to not slide, then ridiculously lucky.
I think the NL format forces Grover to think through his decisions….getting him out of auto-pilot mode, and thus making him a better manager.
When I was watching the game, I sure thought that I saw Garcia waving Vidro home. I must have been mistaken, considering the quote from Vidro.
Yup, O’Flaherty was the biggest hero of the night.
And someone needs to write a song on the legend of Jamie Burke.
Of all the pitchers in the game, the one that I had the most confidence in was Sherrill. When he was pitching, I just knew the Cubs were going to do nothing.
Oh, Grover, can we platoon Sexson, please?
Other team slogan, “Refuse to Lose” “2 outs, so what?”
2007 Mariner’s slogan, “Screw Probability”
possibly the stop sign was up because they all know that Vidro is the slowest runner on the team, and a likely out at home?
I can’t decide my favorite post-game quote–
Vidro’s “I saw the ball come loose, and I said, ‘Ooooooooooooh'”
Washburn’s “Well, it went 13 innings and I came out after six. I’ll tell you the truth – I had a lot of ‘rally beers’ up here in the clubhouse.”
The M’s are playing well, and getting the breaks. It is definately a good time to be a fan. I am worried about Beltre’s injured thumb. If he has to go on the DL, what do the M’s do? Morse is on the DL, the Rainiers 3B doesn’t look like a solution, is Tui on the 40 man roster? He has been hitting better this year, though it could be a reflection of his hot start. 3B depth isn’t strong in this organization.
Dude, I declared…in front of witnesses…that if Willie was able to drive in Turbo I would place a personal moratorium on negativity against him for six months.
Ok Willie…enjoy six months of me not ripping you.
So are the Mariners due for a crash if only because the bullpen — with the exception of the just-arrived Jake Woods — would appear to be beyond gassed? How important is it for the starters to go at least seven innings for the next few days?
Or do the Mariners just keep getting bizarro wins by letting the pen-sters continue to be seemingly rubber-armed madmen?
Garcia made a good call on Vidro’s run. Garcia threw up a stop sign, which Vidro SHOULD have obeyed. He didn’t, he did his little dance at home plate, and he scored, but that doesn’t mean it was a likely outcome.
Garcia should have stopped Vidro, and Vidro should have stopped.
aaaaannd now I’ve spent the whole morning humming ‘The hero of Canton’.
Wasn’t Ichiro next at bat after willie? Vidro should have realized that Ichiro was coming up and the bases would be loaded so no place to walk him. If I was a gambling man I would have taken Ichiro with 2outs and the bases loaded over Vidro scoring from 2nd.
Our love for his bat…
…is big, and he’s not a jerk!
The hero of M’s-town,
the man they call Burke…
now I have a vision of Jamie Burke in a pretty cunning hat.
So … someone mentioned earlier that the M’s have the 5th best record in the majors (and still wouldn’t make the playoffs if they started today).
Not that it’s likely to happen … but if Detroit and Cleveland both lost today, and we won, we would have the THIRD best winning percentage in the majors (and would make the playoffs).
No offense to the M’s, who I love, but this just doesn’t feel like the third best team in the majors (or even the 5th). I mean, whose looking at their schedule and saying “Crap, Seattle’s coming to town.” (Other than those teams which say “Crap, there’s another baseball team coming to town.”)
Is this the result of a twisted perception of the Mariners on my part, or that overall, there just aren’t many great teams this year? Or something else? Or just another example of “anything can happen in baseball?”
Regarding the non-slide by Turbo… that’s been happening a lot lately and not just with Turbo. It seems like I’ve been screaming, “SLIDE, YOU IDIOT!” at the TV a lot lately. What’s the deal with the M’s refusing to slide into home?
62. Bases would not have been loaded for Ichiro; we would have had runners at the corners, and my guess is that they still would have IBB’d Ichiro.
The thing with Vidro is that if he’s not going to slide (for whatever reason) then he should be lowering his shoulder and going into the catcher. He’s a big guy who doesn’t play in the field, he can afford to do that.
Kenji’s non-slide a couple of days ago when he was out at the plate is the same thing. I know that isn’t done much in Japan and there may be a professional courtesy thing among catchers, but he needs to at least make an effort to break up the play.
That was one of the most bizarre games I’ve ever seen.
Thank goodness we got great pitching from O’Flaherty and Sherrill, especially those two huge back-to-back bases-loaded strikeouts by George that probably saved the ballgame.
Lauren, singing about her love of (one of) her boyfriend’s bat…
Which leads to:
Her boyfriend’s bat and you’re gonna’ be sorry
Two outs, so what, her boyfriend’s bat!
Is this the result of a twisted perception of the Mariners on my part, or that overall, there just aren’t many great teams this year? Or something else? Or just another example of “anything can happen in baseball?â€
The NL is pretty bad- there really isn’t a dominant team there right now.
The AL has Boston, Cleveland and Detroit, with the Angels being 4th… and a bunch of “WTF?” going on.
Here’s the thing, though…
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/319611_mbok13.html
“The Mariners played their 60th game Monday in Cleveland. In the first 30 games (through May 10), the club was 15-15, the team batting average was .264 and the team ERA was 5.14. In the second 30 games through Monday, the team was 19-11 with a .327 batting average and 4.47 ERA. Curiously, the club’s homer total fell from 31 to 27, but the runs scored total soared from 143 to 173.”
This team is NOT going to hit .327 the rest of the year.
Strangely, it seems that Vidro’s non-slide may have been a contributing factor to Marty “pitcher-slapper” Barrett’s fumb le of the ball. Seems he had one eye on Vidro, not really sure about what Vidro would do. Vidro, built like a fire hydrant, must have been quite imposing…
#67 – If Vidro had held at third the bases *would* have been loaded (Vidro, Betancourt, WFB)with Ichiro up to bat. It was only Vidro scoring that opened up first base to walk Ichiro.
71 – “This team is NOT going to hit .327 the rest of the year.”
*NO* team is going to go 19-11 every 30 games, but most playoff teams will; have one or two 30 game stretches like it (think Detroit last year – .500 team second half of the year, IIRC).
The fact that this team is capable of doing this over a 30 game stretch is encouraging.
If hitting .327 means we play .633 ball, we don’t need to hit .327.
Well, actually, 19-11 comes out to 102-60 over a 162 game season. There are lots of teams that sustain that (or close to it) over a full season.
It’s encouraging, sure, but this still may be an 85 win team on a hot streak.
Note something else: This is a contact-hitting team. They’re built to keep knocking singles around. Since singles are the most highly-variable part of an offense (just look at Ichiro’s numbers over his career), then the M’s are going to have hot and cold streaks that are more violent than other teams.
When they’re riding high, like in this last 30 game stretch, they’ll look awesome. When they bottom out, though, it’ll be ugly for a while. The question is how long they can sustain the high times, and how long the lows are going to last.
It’ll be a wild ride. Fun to watch, for sure.
Re 71
We have been hitting .327 without some of the biggest pieces of our offense really clicking (Richie and Adrian). So, when Raul, Guillen, or Joh inevitably slump a little, couldn’t it be offset by Richie and/or Adrian finally hitting?
I realize Richie will never hit for average, but still, they would help
77: Beltre’s hit over .300 during that team .327 stretch.
We have been hitting .327 without some of the biggest pieces of our offense really clicking (Richie and Adrian). So, when Raul, Guillen, or Joh inevitably slump a little, couldn’t it be offset by Richie and/or Adrian finally hitting?
There are exactly ZERO MLB teams who’ve hit .327 over a full season in the modern era. Even in the 1920’s-1930’s, when the LEAGUE hit .290-.300, no team hit .327 for a full year. (The Giants hit .319/.367/.473 in 1930 to come closest to that, which explains why some of the weakest HOF’ers in history come from that era and team- a bunch of very average to sorta good players had massively inflated stats playing in New York, a recipe for bad HOF selections.)
To expect a team to hit .327 for another 100 games, when they play half their games at Safeco, and it’s a team full of streaky hitters (hell, Ichiro has his .255 months where he looks like Omar Moreno)… well, it’s not going to happen.
Thanks EC!!! We don’t need no stinking warm fuzzies. Reality is reality. I mean…the earth would have to spin on a different axis in order for the Mariners to actually defy statistics. That’s why everyone here thought the Mariners would be where they are today even a month ago.
To quote the kid from Angels in the Outfield, “It can happen!” Either way… I think most of us are enjoying the wink from the Baseball gods that the Mariners have experienced in the last few weeks. Winning is neat.
personally, I vote for the original version of Angels in the outfield, with the woeful Pirates as the team in need.
“We have been hitting .327 without some of the biggest pieces of our offense really clicking (Richie and Adrian).”
Why does everyone insist on believing that Adrian is part of the problem? Will people ever learn to value what he brings to this team?
Who says I’m not enjoying this, or that we can’t win some games?
Hint: go look at Felix’s ERA and IP. We won’t be hitting .327 the rest of the year, but Felix is going to improve, too.
Granted, the M’s defense has not been its usual amazing self this season, but Mariners pitchers have the 3rd worst BABIP in the AL. If the teams Batting Average is unsustainably high, it will regress to the mean, but the teams pitching BABIP will probably regress too, which should help out.
A couple of other factors to consider-
The offense (and defense) will get even better when they eventually make Vidro the 10th batter, moving Raul to DH and Adam Jones, he of the .900 Tacoma OPS, to LF.
If the team trades for a rent-a-pitcher like Buerhle at the deadline, that would probably add 2-3 wins.
We have Lowe coming back.
Lastly, I seriously doubt Sexson will tank an entire season like this when he’s fully healthy. Even last year, as horrible as he was, he still OPS’d about 1000 in the last month and a half. As we saw in the D-rays series, when Sexson is on this offense is terrifying, because we’re getting him baserunners by the bunches.
Raul to DH and Jones in the Outfield. Dave contends it will never happen. Or at least not this year, unless there’s an injury.
The AL West is now 19-9 against the NL this year. Not sure if this is crazy luck or if the AL West is really that good.
The AL is 58-43 against the NL. Most of that is the 10 games over .500 by the AL West.
The White Sox (2-7) have the worst record intraleague. So the Cubs must have been beating on them pretty good.
So, what options do we have at third beyond WB16? Sean Burroughs didn’t work. Anyone at AAA/AA.
I did some looking at the M’s farm system, and this is what I found for 3b;
238/289/310 – Ronnie Pettyman (AAA)
288/330/397 – Brant Ust (AAA)
313/383/485 – Mike Morse (AAA – Injured)
293/412/438 – Mat Tui (AA)
Pretty slim pickings down there. I think it was mentioned before the season began that Beltre was pretty indispensable. Unless Tui is for real or Beltre isn’t hurt that bad, this could be trouble down the line.
Morse would have made sense short term, but he’s on the DL, too.