One Run Games
The Mariners just finished up winning their fourth game in a row, all over quality opponents, on the road. They’ve made up some ground in both the division and wild card races, and have pushed themselves to eight games over .500. They’ve done it with the awesomeness of J.J. Putz, a resurgence from Raul Ibanez, and a bunch of clutch hits.
If you hadn’t noticed, all four wins have come by one run: 6-5, 6-5, 4-3, and 8-7. The Mariners are now 10-7 in one run games after going 20-24 in such contests last year. That kind of swing will make a big difference on the team’s final record.
Because one run games are often decided by a good bounce here or a bad call there, one run W/L records are often disconnected from the actual ability of a team. The Washington Nationals are probably the worst team in baseball this year, getting outscored by over a run per game, but they’re 12-9 in one run games. The Indians, Angels, and Red Sox look like the three best teams in the AL to date, and as a group, they’re a combined 27-21 in one run games. Last year, the Yankees won 97 games, but were just 24-22 in one run affairs.
Basically, winning one run games is awesome, and doing so over teams like San Diego and Cleveland is even better. Any win against those teams is a good thing, and there’s no end-of-season adjustment for run differential when they’re handing out playoff spots. So, yea, there are all kinds of reasons to have enjoyed this four game stretch, with some weaker opponents coming up, this has the potential to turn into a nice long winning streak.
But, if you see somebody writing about how these last four games have proven the character, heart, and guts of this team, just ignore them. Just like last year’s team wasn’t a bunch of selfish jerks for struggling in one run games, this team isn’t a bunch of heroic lionhearts for winning them. I’m all for winning as many one run games as possible, but I’m not interested in assigning character representations to these guys based on how they do in games that are decided by such small margins.
I’d rather deal with the reality of on the field performance and leave the clubhouse leadership/chemistry ramblings to others. And, the reality is, this team is mashing the ball lately. After last night’s game, the team is now hitting .318/.374/.443 in June, averaging 6.5 runs per game, and getting production up and down the order. As mentioned, Ibanez has given those of us who thought he was done the finger, hitting .364/.417/.682 in the last 10 games, while Jose Lopez and Kenji Johjima continue to make a push for inclusion in the all-star game. Yuniesky Betancourt is on another one of his singles-fest hot streaks, while Jose Guillen just keeps being a solid hitter and Ichiro continues to be Ichiro! Sexson and Vidro continue to struggle, but that’s not new, and the rest of the team is making up for their out-making ways.
When the M’s built this line-up, they pointed to the depth of the offense being a key point, and in that sense, it’s paid off. The M’s have gotten more production from their 7-8-9 guys than any other team in baseball, and it’s helped offset the fact that their 2-3-4 guys have been pretty horrible.
The M’s still have the kind of offense that goes in streaks, and I’m sure we’ll be railing about their frustrating approach as some no name A-ball pitcher shuts them down with an 83 MPH fastball later this year, but for now, it’s fun rooting for a team that can score runs in bunches.
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Yeah, bad teams are more likely to get their wins from close games, otherwise they’re too busy losing by 3-5+ runs a game.
Something similar was pointed out somewhat recently where the Spurs had a losing record in close games sometime in the past few years.
Obviously it’s more like needing to flip a coin than clutch play by “better players”.
We just got ESPN props! There were only 5 baseball games yesterday but I will take it.
Dave, would you put one run game wins on the players, coaches/manager, or luck for the most part?
It seems to me that we are getting good breaks on a lot of calls, except for a few Morrow strikes last night. It was mentioned that it was that umpires first MLB game behind the plate so I will give some leeway.
Dave, would you put one run game wins on the players, coaches/manager, or luck for the most part?
I’d rather rephrase “luck” as “things beyond team control”, which would include the performance of the opponent. So, I’d say one run games are probably 80% things out of team control, 15% players, and 5% managers.
I think Jeff at Lookout Landing said it perfectly when he opined that a team is in pretty good shape if their worst hitter is either the .300 shortstop or the .290 DH.
Dave, are there teams out there that might recognize the M’s free-swinging ways and actually form a pitching strategy of throwing more balls than usual? Or does that just fly so much in the face of common logic that they’d be unwilling to go for it?
Well, the M’s .290 DH is probably the worst .290 player in the history of baseball, but yea, if the M’s don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because they didn’t score enough runs.
And I think we’re already seeing teams use the M’s aggressive hitting philosophy against them by attacking them out of the zone. Last night, Fernando Cabrera threw a pitch that very nearly bounced off the plate, and Ichiro swung at it. So, the next pitch, Cabrera bounced it in front of the plate. It was almost a challenge match to see just how horrible a pitch Cabrera could throw before Ichiro would refuse to swing.
#4
I was wondering the exact same thing. Since our hittters refuse to walk, why don’t opposing pitchers just throw balls and borderline strikes the whole time and let the batters get themselves out by chasing pitches? I know it seems simple and probably ridiculous, but since we are hitting so well, it might be the best strategy.
4-6 I wouldn’t be suprised if teams are already leaning toward that. At least a few times a game we see and M’s hitter expand the strike zone a little to far and hit a weak ground ball or strike out cause of it. You can’t completely just start throwing balls at hitters because you will be behind in the count to many times.
Dave, I look at this stat more than the record in 1 run game: the Mariners are 29-0 leading after 7, and 27-1 leading after 6. That’s certainly a tribute to the pen, and even when Morrow blew the save last night, the pen still held down the Tribes and not gave them the lead, and gave the offense a chance to score the go ahead run in the 9th. The pen definitely gave them more than a chance to win games. Now, I don’t think the pen can be this good over the whole season, as they are obviously going to be over-used, but after 60 games, you’ve got to give the biggest strength of this team to the bullpen, not the offense. The offense is streaky, and it’s bound to go into slumps. While I expect the pen to fall off a little bit, but I don’t expect them to fall off too much, especially if we get Mark Lowe back around the AS break.
Would I be crazy to assume that having a relief ace (putz) is going to be a positive factor in winning 1 run games? He sure seems to affect the performance of the opponent.
[dupe]
I hope we get Lowe back this year…but I don’t think we can count on him back in the pen. If he does make it back, I don’t think we can count on him being the same pitcher we saw last year. I think it’ll take some time to build up his strength.
every aspect of the team right now is going well but the starting pitching…that was the biggest concern in the off-season, the biggest concern now, and will be the biggest concern (besides opening the vault for ICHIRO) this coming off-season…once THE KING gets it going, if weaver can turn it around, and the other three stay the course, playoffs are on the horizon…i would love to trade for a #2 or #3 from a bottom feader though…SF is out of it and they have some good arms…
10-7 is a .589 winning percentage; overall the M’s are 34- 26 .567
But going into yesterday’s game, they were 9-7 (.563) in 1 run games and 33-26 (.559) overall.
In other words, they’re winning 1 run games at exactly the same pace they’re winning games in general. There’s going to be wilder swings in the 1-run rate since it’s such a small sample to start with, but the M’s appear to be winning 1-run games at exactly the pace you’d expect given their overall record.
Nothing to see here, move along.
(Of course, if you have a column to write and nothing much to say, you can wax poetic about clubhouse chemistry or whatever, but you’re basically inventing a story).
Couple of things I’m seeing…
Indeed the M’s have an aggressive, streaky offense. I’m not sure it’s the greatest way to build an offense, but that’s the way it is. As long as their slumps and streaks are asynchronous, the offense could actually, overall, turn out to be quite decent — which is what is appearing to happen as of late. Lopez, Johjima, Betancourt, and Ibanez likely aren’t going to keep hitting at their current paces. Of course, Vidro, Sexson, and Guillen aren’t likely to continue to suck either. So, as long as the slumps by the first group of guys are offset by the streaks of the last group of guys, this offense will continue to score its share of runs.
Also, heh, the M’s have lead the league in overpaying for clubhouse leadership for several years now. It’s about dang time they started producing something out with their chemistry kits.
Wrote one of the bloggers at USS Mariner who exclusively relies on statistical analysis, “We don’t know anything about how things like chemistry effects (sic) player performance.”
Uh, ZZZZZZZZZZZING!
Olives, Mayo, Feta, Garlic…
Since when does USSM ‘exclusively’ rely on statistical analysis. Yeah, like Dave isn’t friends with a bunch of scouts.
Even teams with great bullpens don’t consistently outperform everyone else in one run games. You know who has the best bullpen in baseball? San Diego, who just got swept in a home series of one run losses, pushing their season record in 1 run games to 11-14.
Good bullpens are valuable, but record in one run games is still mostly random.
But aren’t we getting the best production from our 7-9 hitters because they should be hitting higher in the order?
lowe will be back next year the way he was before, if no complications arise…i hope they just keep him in the minors to work it out…unless he is tearing it up of course…in the long run, he needs his old job back to let morrow go to the minors and develop into a starter…
Bako, even a bottom feeder doesn’t give up a #2 or #3 starter cheap. In fact a bottom feeder, more than anybody, needs quality to rebuild and will expect to get a lot for anything quality they give up. Starting pitching is a worry for every team, and judging from this past offseason it’s just geting more expensive. Are you willing to give up Adam Jones? Lopez? Betancourt?
This is not a trade speculation thread. Thanks.
I realize I’m in the minority here, but anytime Morrow comes in I worry he’s gonna get shelled. It seems like he’s just throwing as hard as he can with limited accuracy, and if he doesn’t end up walking the guy, I’m praying that the batter can’t hit a 95+ mph fastball.
Wrote one of the bloggers at USS Mariner who exclusively relies on statistical analysis, “We don’t know anything about how things like chemistry effects (sic) player performance.”
At least you know they read the comments section to cherry-pick misspelled quotes.
14: who quoted USSM there? Notice he (or she) use the (sic) form rather than correcting the grammatical error like so:[affects].
In grammarian gangland, that’s cause to rumble.
Oh…I see…Ted Miller. Hmm, the grammar nerds are coming to get you, Teddy!
There is no such thing as bad PR. Congrats on the recognition. You should see if he’ll make it a link.
I can’t blame Ted Miller for being upset with me – 10 comments earlier, I outright stated that the average USSM reader knows more about baseball than he does.
I’m still certain that’s true, but I’m not outraged that he didn’t particularly like the comment and decided to pull a quote from the blog to make us look stupid.
But I’m not sure anyone in this town cares what Ted Miller thinks, so I’m not particularly worried about it.
i agree with hardball…with every pitch morrow throws, i wince and pray it doesn’t get creamed…
Tes Miller begs the question. In the existential sense.
Last night, Fernando Cabrera threw a pitch that very nearly bounced off the plate, and Ichiro swung at it. So, the next pitch, Cabrera bounced it in front of the plate. It was almost a challenge match to see just how horrible a pitch Cabrera could throw before Ichiro would refuse to swing.
Yeah, I was shaking my head at that too. Ichiro had gone into his two-strike “defensive” mode where he wants to foul off anything that isn’t going over his head or behind him. It’s actually an option for him because he has such amazing bat control, and he’s golfed enough hits off his shoetops that it sometimes works, but against a smart pitcher with control it’s really a problem for exactly the reason we saw last night.
I realize I’m in the minority here, but anytime Morrow comes in I worry he’s gonna get shelled. It seems like he’s just throwing as hard as he can with limited accuracy, and if he doesn’t end up walking the guy, I’m praying that the batter can’t hit a 95+ mph fastball.
If it’s a minority count me in it too. As wild as he is, he puts a lot of guys on base with walks; sooner or later he’s going to walk in a run that wins the game, or somebody’s going to catch up to a pitch and rack up a bunch of runs with one swing. Even if he’s mini-Putz all year, I’m still going to worry every time he’s on the mound. He needs the Wild Thing glasses, complete with the little skull-and-crossbones over the nosepiece.
Here’s an even better typo from the post (sorry, Dave, I couldn’t resist):
“The M’s still have the kind of offense that goes in steaks.”
Mmm, steaks…
Gritty steaks.
Jeff made the comment in his LL game recap today about the 07 Mariner offense looking alot like the 02 (WS Champion) Angel offense. The similarities, at a glance, are interesting:
AVG: SEA .288 (2nd in AL), LAA .282 (1st in AL)
OBP: SEA .339 (6th in AL), LAA .341 (4th in AL)
SLG: SEA .428 (6th in AL), LAA .433 (6th in AL)
BB/9 SEA 2.45 (last in AL) LAA 2.85 (11th in AL)
K/9 SEA 4.68 (last in AL) LAA 4.97 (last in AL)
Too bad the pitching comparisons don’t line up that way. But maybe the Mariners can hack their way to the playoffs like that annoying Anaheim squad did in 02.
From the Chemistry article:
“Two years ago, we couldn’t have done this,” a seemingly giddy Putz told the P-I’s John Hickey, after describing his offseason work on a sneaky “ninja crawl.”
Great image there. I wish him luck, but, being roughly JJ’s size, I know the ninja dreams are futile. Furniture isn’t big enough to hide behind, and moving that much mass around, no matter how carefully, just isn’t stealthy. Nothing like a 6-5, 250 lb “ninja” knocking over benches, rattling windows, and making the floor shake “sneaking” up on someone with a shaving cream pie balanced in one hand. A direct frontal assault is much better, JJ. Use the mass to your advantage.
The ‘02 Angels won the World Series because they had the best defensive outfield in recent major league history. Their pitching was okay, but their defense was amazing.
The M’s don’t have that kind of defense. If they called up Adam Jones, stuck him in a corner, and moved Ibanez to DH, it would help, but it’s still never going to be as good as the Angels ‘02 defense was.
From Miller’s article:
Just about every media outlet during the preseason wrote about how miserable and sometimes toxic the Mariners’ clubhouse has been in recent years, pointing at a leadership void that developed as many of the franchise’s beloved veterans — Bone, Edgar, Boone, etc. — wandered into the sunset.
Uh, say what? I was reading media outlets at the time, and it was a bunch of “gee, they’re nice guys… too nice, that’s why they’re losers. Good thing they signed Carl Everett for some mental toughness”. How the hell is that toxic?
You know, this is what I love about the media: you can say complete bullcrap and no-one will call you on it.
Also, I’m not surprised the 2007 Mariners look like another Bavasi-inspired set of acquisitions. I called this team as being the best offense in the West a while back, and it looks like a solid prediction to me. What’s surprising is that thanks to Texas imploding, they may actually lead the division in scoring WHILE playing in Safeco, which is quite an accomplishment.
I know the odds of Hargrove benching Vidro are small, but how much better would the team be offsenively and defensively if Adam JOnes played left, Ibanez DHd and turbo and his 700 ops was benched?
Would it add a couple of likely wins over the remaining course of the season?
Yeah, I was shaking my head at that too. Ichiro had gone into his two-strike “defensive” mode where he wants to foul off anything that isn’t going over his head or behind him. It’s actually an option for him because he has such amazing bat control, and he’s golfed enough hits off his shoetops that it sometimes works, but against a smart pitcher with control it’s really a problem for exactly the reason we saw last night.
Ichiro’s been doing this for years. You can almost see the strikeout coming. Once Ichiro has decided to foul off everything thrown near him, he’ll eventally miss one that’s beyond his reach (often 3 feet outside, or bounced 6 feet in front of him).
But at least he makes the pitcher work for that K.
#36, quite a bit defensively, but probably not as much offensively, unless Vidro takes the Carl Everett Route, but it’s possible Jones is already a better bat than Vidro. Replacing Ibanez w/ Jones in the field is probably a 15-20 run gain, possibly nore, over the season, but then again w/ the big left field and the awful BABIP some of our starters have put up, the net gain could be even greater than that.
Probably should have read: 15-20 runs prevented.
If Jones hit .270/.330/.450, which is probably a reasonable approximation of what we should expect him to do in the majors right now, over the course of the final 300 at-bats of the season, the offensive difference between he and Vidro would be somewhere in the range of 5-10 runs. Not huge, but significant. If it’s ten runs, that’s an extra win.
Now, defensively, I believe Ibanez is something like a -10 to -15 LF over the course of a full season. Prorated over the rest of the year, that means I expect him to be in the -7 to -10 range.
Adam Jones has made huge strides defensively in Tacoma, and the reports on his range have been phenomenal. There’d be some adjustment to reading balls in LF versus CF, but that’s a pretty easy transition to make, and with his physical skills, expecting him to be +5 or so the rest of the year isn’t a stretch.
That puts the defensive difference at around 10-15 runs, or another win, as well.
So, rough estimate – Vidro to the bench, Jones to LF, Raul to DH is around a two win upgrade for the M’s.
They’ll never do it, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.
The biggest problem with Jones in LF, Ibanez to DH is the “left-handed problem” that Dave wrote up in his article a couple weeks back. To balance that out, you’d just about have to bench Sexson and play Broussard at the same time.
#33 – Dave, would you really take that 2002 Angels OF defense over the Winn-Cameron-Ichiro combo we were running out there in 2003? I sure wouldn’t…
Great post! A few observations:
Team chemistry is important, but it can’t make up for a lack of talent, and winning tends to make everyone get along!
I disagree that our offense will be streaky. This is a lineup of proven big league hitters. That’s why we have survived without Sexson and Ibanez hitting well.
I think the bullpen is clearly the key to the one run games. Zero leads given up after the 7th this year!
Still, I remain skeptical that this can continue if the starting pitching doesn’t improve.
Thanks Dave, I think it’d be an interesting read if you did a “what the Mariners could/should do to keep winning/keep their heads above water/improve” post, things like Jones, maybe platooning Sexson and Broussard, possibly some trade scenarios, etc.
I thought it might be in that range. Maybe USSMariner readers can write some letters to the papers so at least the top brass have to look at the translations
The upcoming Astros series really puts things in perspective.
The M’s have excellent balance in their lineup, but no real true boppers.
The Astros have Berkman, Lee, and Pence and everybody else is a pretty much a pushover.
Interesting clash of lineup makeup.
The biggest problem with Jones in LF, Ibanez to DH is the “left-handed problem” that Dave wrote up in his article a couple weeks back. To balance that out, you’d just about have to bench Sexson and play Broussard at the same time.
Right – it’s tough to convince a major league manager to pull the Jones/Vidro swap in the context of the team’s current roster.
Dave, would you really take that 2002 Angels OF defense over the Winn-Cameron-Ichiro combo we were running out there in 2003? I sure wouldn’t…
Anderson-Erstad-Salmon were incredible, particularly Erstad, who was an absolute ball vacuum in center field during his prime. Mitchel Lichtman’s UZR formula for evaluating defense has the ‘02 Angels as being 100 runs better than an average major league defensive team. Even if you want to regress for some deficiencies in defensive metrics, there’s no way around the fact that the 2002 Angels were an amazing defensive team.
I think the bullpen is clearly the key to the one run games. Zero leads given up after the 7th this year!
Facts disagree – even teams with great bullpens don’t have consistently good records in one run games. Again, the M’s just won three straight one run games over San Diego, who clearly has the best bullpen in baseball.
All these exciting 1 run games are reminiscent of 1995, no?
And look at the standings… Boston 1st in AL East, Yankees 2nd making a long chase at the WC, Cleveland 1st in AL Central, Angels atop AL West, Mariners giving chase in 2nd.
“All these exciting 1 run games are reminiscent of 1995, no?
And look at the standings… Boston 1st in AL East, Yankees 2nd making a long chase at the WC, Cleveland 1st in AL Central, Angels atop AL West, Mariners giving chase in 2nd.”
Hey I have plans for early October again too. I heard the highlights of Game 5 driving back from Missoula. I learned about the squeeze play in the parking lot at Shoreline in San Jose. Will I hear of some other incredible win on the drive back from the Grand Canyon?
Dave: are stats like 29-0 leading after 7 or 17-1 leading after 6 meaningful? I would imagine even the KC Royals or any teams with a bad bullpen still have a pretty good record leading after 7, maybe not 29-0, but I would expect even teams with bad bullpen to win 75% of the games leading after 7.
Logic says if they are 29-0 leading after 7, then, they should be 5-26 trailing OR tieing after 7. Even though we know the M’s have quite a few come-from-behind W this year 5-26 trailing or tieing after 7 still looks pretty bad to me. So I don’t know how meaningful a stat 29-0 leading after 7 is.
Best part about Ibanez’s first home run last night is they were showing the 9-6 Cardinals win over the Angels on the scoreboard right below where the ball went out.
Dave, what do you think on Sean Marshall of the Cubs 2nd game starter coming up from AAA with his recent success, will he give us problems?
Why isn’t Wladimir Balentien getting any love? He has near identical numbers to Adam Jones.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=529&stn=true&sid=t529
Pessimistic speculation tells me the M’s are listening to trade offers on Adam Jones. His value is climbing and I just can’t see Bavasi sitting still with a nice piece of trade bait, no place to put him, and a never-ending supply of #4 starters available. Shiver.
Dave: are stats like 29-0 leading after 7 or 17-1 leading after 6 meaningful?
Not really. Like you guess, almost every team does really well when leading after 7. 29-0 sounds impressive, but in reality, it’s a win or two better than average.
Dave, what do you think on Sean Marshall of the Cubs 2nd game starter coming up from AAA with his recent success, will he give us problems?
He’s a lefty, so probably not.
Why isn’t Wladimir Balentien getting any love?
Adam Jones is better.
Pessimistic speculation tells me the M’s are listening to trade offers on Adam Jones.
Realistic knowledge says they aren’t.
i can see them shopping balentien, but not jones…especially with the ICHIRO question mark in center…
When the M’s get around to getting serious about making a move, and that won’t be for another month or so, they’ll be shopping Broussard, Balentien and Reed, and they’ll probably be willing to talk about Feierabend, Clement, and Justin Thomas. But they’re pretty intent on keeping Jones.
dave, grab your crystal ball, where is reed in a year, and if he’s somewhere else, how did he get there?
This is not a trade speculation thread.
Do the Ms lead the league in articles about clubhouse pranks?
51: Sean Marshall is a lefty, no? Thus, I think our chances are pretty good for succes…given how well the team has hit lefties all year.
22 – I think you mean “[affect]“
[ot]
60-his scouting report on the “official” site makes him look pretty tough…he is a lefty…
and i just read that Mark McLemore was called up from the minors with the Astros…is this our MM? i thought he retired…
Sean Marshall
vs. Left .208/.208/.292
vs. Right .208/.275/.306
Super small sample size,
[ot]
61: a correction about a comment about a correction not made…man, we are getting META around here.
and i just read that Mark McLemore was called up from the minors with the Astros…is this our MM? i thought he retired…
Shockingly, there is more than one Mark McLemore in the world.
never mind my question on McLemore…he’s a pitcher with Houston…hopefully we rock him…
63 – Not “our” MM. “Our” MM does pre-game for Texas Rangers games now. I believe this MM is a pitcher.
I don’t know what happen to the end of my post #64, but it reads that he’s had
I dont think having a good bullpen would help
that much…but having a great closer who pitches the occasional two inning save would help some….Putz is one of the keys to this stat…A good overall bullpen doesnt make too much of a difference because a good bullpen will help you stay in games and lose by 1 run as well as win by 1 run. But a team with a dominant stopper like Putz should do slightly better than the average team
Dang it, ok. I get it….he’s had less than 100 ABs against with 74 vs. righties.
The M’s had Putz last year too.
Hitting has as much to do w/ 1 run games as bullpens. If you don’t hit, you can’t win, if you hit a ton of hits, you might win, even if the bullpen coughs up a run. Also it seems that there would be lots of noise in 1 run games due to sample size. One last issue would be which side of the 1 run you’re on, if you trail by 1 run in the 9th, your bullpen won’t be as much help as your hitting.
I’m not arguing one year over the next I’m just stating that over the long haul having a great closer likely makes your team slightly better than average….This is a flukey stat that will vary greatly from year to year but all things considered having a great closer (who goes the occasional two innings) would be a plus to this statistic.
Dave, what’s your impression of Rich Hill? I’m going to the game tonight, already seen him pitch twice this year. He reminds me of Barry Zito from a few years ago when Zito was still an above league average pitcher. Except that he seems to throw a little harder than Zito ever did. And we never could hit Zito well.
Hill’s big curve is Zitoesque, but his fastball is a few ticks better and he pitches away from contact more than Zito ever did. He’s a solid #2 starter who could be an ace if he ever fixes his command. He’s kind of the new Darryl Kile.
JJ & pies always makes me think of the fine ‘Pie drill’ commercial of years past
Dave, how do you expect Washburn and Batista to match up against the Cubs line up? Ramirez their best LHP hitter just went on the DL, so that has to be good news for the M’s.
I am hoping for Jeff “Regressing to the mean” Weaver on Thursday.
I agree, Lopez is making a surge but it looks like he’s going to get squeezed, rightfully so. Cano has the small lead in votes over Polanco. Cano, of course, doesn’t deserve it. Polanco will go b/c of a .348 avg and the Leyland connection. And really, Upton has played well this year and probably will get the nod as back up if Cano slides in the vote. Hope Lopez enjoyed his trip last year b/c it isn’t happening this year.
I didn’t notice Upton mainly playing CF now. So here’s hoping Polanco overtakes Cano and Lopez get in.
With all due respect, this is an assertion with no actual evidence (i.e, analysis) to support it. I could just as easily say gritty players like Willie Bloomquist are what help you in one-run games, and we’d have just as much substantive evidence in favor of that conclusion. Without actual research, making statements like that is rehashing baseball chestnuts like “pitching and defense are 75% of the game” and so on, not actually honestly examining a question.
Keep in mind that a superior closer will improve your team, just like ANY superior player…
EC, should we all pitch in and buy you a book on post formatting?
Fwiw, the “new” Mark McLemore has something in common with Jamie Burke! Something about an alma mater being the defeding NCAA baseball champs
I wonder if Lou will have any meltdowns this series if we continue to win tense, close games decided in the last inning.
Hey, if my typos are THAT irritating, banning’s always an option.
I know you wanted to say away from leadership/chemistry ramblings. But recently, players talk about a different vibe. Certainly, winning will do that. Yesterday’s game seem like an example of how this team didn’t bury their heads after blowing a lead. Winning one run games can be a streak of luck but losing one run games often seem less about luck and more of a lack of concentration and confidence.
IIRC, 1 Run W/L correlates somewhat with xW/L (pythag), something like R=.30, which is not very predictive, but the better the team the more likely they are to win 1 run games, with a lot of noise around some expected W/L. Also take a theoretical, your team has some lousy Jeff Wea… starting pitcher who gives up 5 runs in 3 innings, gets the boot, Julio Mat… the bullpen tacks on a couple more. The offense scores 6 runs, and the rest of the bullpen is lights, but your team still loses. You get 5 or 6 of these games and it’ll really skew your 1 run W/L.
Also, 1 run games make up ~25% of the games played. Does 25% of a season tell you that much about a team?
82 There is probably something to having a superb pinch runner like Willie in one run games (his pinch run basically one the game yesterday), but I apologize for not “researching” this one. This is almost an impossible research topic, I suppose you could look at teams 1 run win/loses vs ther winning percentage, vs their BS ration + some sort of weithted boost for 2 inning saves..but that seems a tad bit ridiculous. All I am saying is that if you have a great closer you are not going to lose a ton of 1 run games on the road bc you are not gonna blow that many saves. And if the closer is great and pitches two innings he will save an extra 1 or 2 run game a year. Sorry for making an assertion, but assertions are sometimes correct.
ummm, if your closer only comes in the 9th, and the only 1-run games he sees are the ones where the team is ahead, that leaves the other one run games and the other innings where there’s a 1 run difference. I’d say 1 run W/L is some function of the teams true talent W/L + Luck + Strategy + Clutch, and probably should be weighted in that order, but I’m not sure what the weights would be.
A comment on streakiness.
You always hear about teams that hit a lot of homeruns, announcers always say that their runs “come in bunches”.
But I’ve always thought that teams like the 07 Mariners tend to be the streakiest. they have an offense that is bult on one thing only — the ability to hit singles. To score runs, several players have to hit singles. When most of the players are hot (or they match up really well against the starting pitcher) they will score runs. Otherwise, not.
They don’t hit homers, they don’t hit a lot of doubles, they don’t draw many walks (to say the least). They’ve got to have a high team batting average to be winning games.
I know you wanted to say away from leadership/chemistry ramblings. But recently, players talk about a different vibe. Certainly, winning will do that. Yesterday’s game seem like an example of how this team didn’t bury their heads after blowing a lead. Winning one run games can be a streak of luck but losing one run games often seem less about luck and more of a lack of concentration and confidence.
That’s more like operant conditioning…positive reinforcement. Certainly not going to hurt…
91 – The M’s are 6th i nthe AL in slugging percentage, but dead last in walks. It’s not al about singles. Part of your statement is dead on – walks, but XBH – we’re slightly above the median.
Being 6th in the AL in slugging at Safeco is very good, also the M’s are 2nd in Runs/G on the road. They’ve got a good offense.
93, but how much of that high SLG comes from a high batting average? Not all of it, I’m sure, but I’d be surprised if we were that highly ranked in ISO SLG.
94 – Also, with a mostly right handed lineup in Safeco.
#93, correct, they rank 8th in ISO.
I meant #95, who was referring to #93. I really need to stop doing that (I dont have much time to respond during the day, so I can’t triple check my posts)
Also, the M’s two main power sources from last year are Ibanez and Sexson, who started the season in huge slumps. I don’t think XBHs are a problem.
Ok, I just plugged the comparison of overall record and record in 1-run games into Excel and got the following (I pray my fixed-width font format-fu works). “Diff” is the difference between a team’s actual record in 1 run games and what would expect given its overall record (so a positive value means they’re winning more 1-run games than you would expect, negative means they’re winning fewer).
Team win% 1-run 1-run% Diff---- ---- ----- ------ ----
Red Sox .645 10-6 .625 -3%
Yankees .492 4-10 .286 -42%
Blue Jays .476 12-12 .500 5%
Orioles .460 6-15 .286 -38%
Devil Rays .459 10-7 .588 28%
Indians .597 10-9 .526 -12%
Tigers .581 12-8 .600 3%
Twins .492 9-7 .563 14%
White Sox .450 6-8 .429 -5%
Royals .375 7-9 .438 17%
Angels .625 7-6 .538 -14%
Mariners .567 10-7 .588 4%
Athletics .548 12-9 .571 4%
Rangers .365 6-8 .429 17%
Mets .581 8-4 .667 15%
Braves .547 8-6 .571 4%
Phillies .516 4-10 .286 -45%
Marlins .484 7-8 .467 -4%
Nationals .413 12-9 .571 38%
Brewers .540 9-7 .563 4%
Cubs .452 4-13 .235 -48%
Cardinals .450 5-7 .417 -7%
Pirates .413 8-10 .444 8%
Astros .413 8-12 .400 -3%
Reds .391 10-10 .500 28%
Padres .581 11-14 .440 -24%
D’backs .578 17-8 .680 18%
Dodgers .563 15-7 .682 21%
Rockies .492 8-6 .571 16%
Giants .460 8-11 .421 -8%Now, Small Sample Theater™ obviously applies; a little bad luck in a few games is going to swing things wildly. Still it’s interesting how bad the Cubs, Phillies, Orioles, and Yankees are here, and how weirdly good the divisional bottom-feeders are. I suppose the latter can be explained: a bad team isn’t going to keep the score close in a lot of games, so in their few close games they have a much better chance of winning than they do overall (assuming luck has more influence on the outcome of 1-run games than others). Also notice how bad the Padres look now; but even prior to running into the Mariner 1-run buzzsaw this weekend, they were at 11-11 which was ~21% worse than their overall record.
Of course you can argue this is entirely meaningless because regression to the mean suggests the underperforming teams will eventually have the bad bounces go their way until their 1-run record more or less matches their record overall. But that assumes the difference in 1-run games is entirely due to luck, and there are no systematic issues (bad managing, bullpen psychosis, whatever) affecting the outcome. A quick look at the past couple of years suggests it’s not all that unusual for a team to end the season with its record in 1-run games being 10-20% (3 to 6 games) out of whack with its overall record. That’s not much, but we talk all the time about a given player (or manager) making that kind of difference over the course of a season. The bad news, if you believe in regression to the mean, is that we should expect the Angels and (especially) the Yankees to do much better over the rest of the season. That wild card may be even harder to snag than you think.
Crap, so much for format-fu. Well, just look at the ends of the liness.
My first thought was a good record in 1 run games could be due to a good closer. But as I thought about I realized it doesn’t really say that at all. Losing a 1 run game can easily be falling behind 5-4 in the 2nd inning and neither team scores again, bullpen has nothing to do with it. Counter intuitively a good bullpen could actually mean more 1 run loses. A team with a bad bullpen falls behind 5-4 early and their pen gives up more runs so they lose big. The good pullpen keeps it to a 1 run game.
Last night I watched one of the Ms two or three best hitters at PGE Park in Portland. I just don’t understand what more Adam Jones can learn from facing 85 mph fastballs from AAA pitchers who will never make it to the show. Imagine the Ms lineup with Jones in LF, Ibanez at DH and Vidro anywhere but in Seattle. This isn’t just about Jones’ development into a big league outfielder. He already is one. It’s about winning.
in reference to #93, 94, 95:
The M’s are 9th in the AL in doubles, 13th in triples, 10th in homers. And, as we all know, last in walks. (and for what it is worth, which isn’t much, they are 10th in steals).
So, I’ll stand by my assertion that their offense comes down to hitting singles. They are 3rd in the AL in hits.
Jones only played last year for a month. If the M’s wait until September call-ups, promote him and then he play regularly next year, when does his service time begin? Are they delaying his call-up to extend his free agency year for another year in the future?
They’r also 2nd to last in PA. They’re 7th in 2B/PA and 9th in HR/PA, all while playing at Safeco, which isn’t so bad, but yeah, it’s mostly a barage of singles, which has basically made of for the lack of walks. Actually now that I look, they’re WAY above the pack in 1B/PA.
We should have Jones in the field. 2 wins could be the difference between sneaking into the Wildcard or Division and watching the playoffs at home.
103, I love Adam Jones, but I think the idea that he’s one of our two or three best hitters is crazy. I SERIOUSLY doubt he’s better than Kenji or Ichiro right now. I suppose the argument could be made he’s better than the Ibanez/Beltre/Lopez cluster, but I’m not convinced.
I like AJ a lot. I think it’s clear that he belongs in the show. I just don’t think it’s fair to expect the kid to put up an .800 OPS in Seattle right now (which is what he’d have to do to be one of our top 3 hitters).
The M’s are on pace to score 853 runs at Safeco. That’s like a 900 run offense in a neutral park, which I’m not so sure is their actual talent level (I’m pretty sure it’s lower than that).
I do think getting/developing higher average right handers instead of higher power ones is not a bad approach given the park. Safeco has a positive 1B park factor for both LHB and RHB.
not 853 runs AT safeco, but 853 runs while playign half of their games at Safeco.
If baseball experts are going to chalk the M’s one-run wins to luck, I say the M’s are due for some luck anyway, with their schedule and all.
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I agree with 106, the PA differential may be affecting those raw rankings. However, Sexson and Ibanez…not to mention Vidro, have not given them much power, so if they heat up, those raw slugging numbers would rise.
One run wins are like quality starts: something for the media to fill airtime talking about and nothing more.
When a game is close, who wins or loses basically comes down to circumstance, unless (maybe) one of the teams involved has an incredibly crappy bullpen, and even then, the team’s overall record often bears that crappiness out in some part, since that crappy bullpen’s being crappy in every game, not just one run games.
Right, but there is an element of “luck is the residue of design”- while bad teams are closer to .500 as a whole on one-run games, and good teams are closer to .500 as well, there’s still positive correlation between one-run record and overall record…it’s just weaker than 1.0 because luck is a bigger factor than in blowouts.
Right now, Raul’s EqA is .292.
His 2004 EqA: .292
His 2005 EqA: .292
Talk about consistent.