Now What?
In the post below, Derek shows how the team’s playoff odds dropped 20% during the five game debacle of a losing streak, making the M’s now a 1 in 20 shot to win either the division or the wild card. They’re now 7 games behind a good Angels team for first place in the A.L. West. They’re only 3 games out of the wild card, but the other teams in contention for that single playoff spot are the loser of the Detroit/Cleveland battle, the Yankees, and the A’s. You’re not going to find anyone with any kind of rational thinking that believes the M’s are better than all those teams.
In reality, the pecking order of the American League has essentially been established. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball, and the Yankees, Indians, Tigers, and Angels are all a step or so behind them in the second tier in the A.L. The third tier features the A’s at the top, followed by the Mariners, Twins, and Blue Jays.
No matter how you want to look at it, the best this team could realistically argue for is being the 6th or 7th best team in the American League, depending on how you feel about Oakland’s ability to win with the back of a rotation of Chad Gaudin, Lenny DiNardo, and Joe Kennedy and a team that still can’t hit.
As noted, mathmatically, it’s not very likely that the 6th or 7th best team in the league can overcome the a significant deficit to pass a better team in front of them in the standings. The M’s playoff chances are, officially, a longshot. A 10% chance of making the playoffs isn’t a death knell, but it’s not exactly reason for optimism either. The M’s are, again, at a crossroads. The last time they faced a win-or-fold-your-tents series of games, they went on a tear and closed the gap in the division.
The M’s are now back where they started, however. Tomorrow, they begin a homestand that brings a bad Pirates team and a bad Reds team in for back-to-back series before Boston rolls into town. Essentially, the Mariners have 3 weeks to salvage their season. In the final 19 games before the all-star break, they have a lot of winning to do in order to make up enough ground to really consider themselves contenders in the second half.
If the Mariners are serious about getting back in this thing, there are some things they can do to put a better team on the field for the next three weeks and give themselves a better chance. We’ve talked about most of these, but consider this an official request.
1. Promote Adam Jones from Tacoma and stick him in the line-up everyday.
He’s a better player today than half the guys in the line-up, a kid who can hit for average and power while playing terrific defense on a team that badly needs another quality defensive outfielder. Raul Ibanez simply can’t cover enough ground to be a credible option in Safeco Field anymore, and the Mariners would gain a huge competitive advantage by sticking Jones in left field and splitting RF/DH duties between Raul Ibanez, Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, and Ben Broussard. Mike Hargrove is systematically opposed to platoons, but in the interest of winning ballgames, he should simply get over his preconceived biases and do what’s best for the team. By installing Jones as the everyday left fielder and using the worn down veterans to give each other frequent offdays, the team would instantly improve it’s offense, defense, and bench. It’s a no-brainer of a move, the kind of talent addition that most teams only dream about getting from a mid-season acquisition. And the M’s don’t even have to make a trade to pull this one off. Show some cajones and make the move. Give us Adam Jones in the majors tomorrow night.
2. Stick Ryan Feierabend in the rotation.
In an ideal world, Feierabend could still be in Tacoma, but as sad as it is to say, right now, he’s one of the five best starting pitchers in the organization. To create a spot for him, shift Jeff Weaver to the bullpen to pitch mop-up work. At this point, things like contract and veteranness just can’t matter in the decision making process – today, Feierabend is a better pitcher than Jeff Weaver, and the M’s can’t afford to have a better pitcher sitting in the bullpen while the M’s lose another game where Weaver takes the mound.
3. Re-organize the bullpen.
Brandon Morrow’s command problems have finally caught up with him, and his velocity was down at the end of the road trip as well. He walked a high wire act through the first two months of the season, but let’s be honest, a guy who walks more than a batter per inning simply can’t be counted on in high leverage situations. With Sherrill and Putz, the M’s have a lights out pair of relievers who can handle the 8th and 9th innings. Hand the 7th inning over to Eric O’Flaherty and Sean Green, and let Morrow hang out in the low leverage situations with Jason Davis and Jeff Weaver. If his velocity doesn’t come back soon, stick him on the DL and give his arm a rest.
Three simple moves that allow the team to re-align their assets as an organization and put the team in the best possible situation to win ballgames. If it still isn’t enough to make up ground in these last 19 games before the all-star break, then you have your answer on whether you’re a contender or not, and you can commence trading off of the veterans.
In the next three weeks, the M’s have one final chance to show us they’re serious about winning, and they’re willing to step on some players toes in order to do so. Here’s to the organization sacking up and making some calls that might not be popular with some highly paid veterans, but put a better team on the field while they try to salvage the rest of the 2007 season.
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Taking everything you said into consideration, isn’t there a side of the Mariners that is hoping they fall out of contention just a bit. If they are in contention and have to deal with trading Ichiro (let’s face it, they are not going to sign him), then they will look horrible in the fans eyes. If they fall out of it a bit, it makes getting something for Ichiro a lot easier to swallow.
and let Morrow hang out in the low leverage situations with Jason Davis and Jeff Weaver. If his velocity doesn’t come back soon, stick him on the DL and give his arm a rest.
What’s the point of putting him in low-leverage situations? Wouldn’t it be preferable to put him in even lower leverage situations (ie West Tennessee)?
What about Sexson? Do they continue to wait him out and keep him at 1st and somewhere around the 4th and 5th spot in the order? or do they drop him further in the order (9th maybe?), reduce his playing time, or maybe find a DL stint for him and have a few ‘recuperation’ starts in Tacoma?
THANK YOU!!! I agree. Jones in LF would be quite an infusion of optimism. I agree with above though…put Morrow back in the minors and give him a chance to start stretching out as a starter for the future. I’ve noted all season long that Morrow was living on the edge and showing his lack of polish as a pitcher by walking batters consistently to put himself in trouble. It was bound to catch up to him and finally has. Time to end that experiment and do the right thing.
Do you think Sexson is still going to heat up or is this the year that the tank comes up empty?
“a guy who works more than a batter per inning simply can’t be counted on in high leverage situations”
Should “works” be walks?
Good Post.
I think platooning Sexson w/ Broussard would be the easiest solution. Beyond that the M’s don’t really have any choices.
Dave,
Is there a ballpark percentage you would put on these moves happening or at least 1 of them coming to fruition?
Would Morrow just be better served going on the DL for a month, resting the arm, then easing into one of the minor league rotations?
Who would be his replacement if he develops “tendonitis”? I know Mateo could be, but didn’t the players vote on not bringing him back?
What is Wlad’s defense like? Would it be worth considering him over Guillen in right? Guillens been OK, but not good w/ the bat and his defense has been awful. I haven’t paid enough attention to Wlad this year, so I’m not sure his bat or glove would be any better, but he’s young and he’s hitting the tar out of the ball in AAA. I was thinking we’d punt Ellison, use Wlad to spell the corners / DH and let Willie spell CF if our robot of a CF ever needs a day off (yeah right).
Taking everything you said into consideration, isn’t there a side of the Mariners that is hoping they fall out of contention just a bit.
No. These guys are still trying to save their jobs.
If they fall out of it a bit, it makes getting something for Ichiro a lot easier to swallow.
This isn’t a “what could we get for Ichiro” thread, so let’s not turn it into one. And, as we’ve discussed many times, it’s extremely unlikely that he gets traded.
What’s the point of putting him in low-leverage situations? Wouldn’t it be preferable to put him in even lower leverage situations (ie West Tennessee)?
Its pretty common for pitchers transitioning from college to pro ball to hit a wall in the summer, as they’re not used to pitching on shorter rest (they get a week off between starts in college). If Morrow’s arm is tired, sticking him in the rotation in the minors is just asking for trouble. Sticking him in low leverage situations and giving him several days between appearances gives him a chance to show that his arm is okay.
What about Sexson?
There’s nothing you can do about Sexson. This team needs him to hit to win, and they’ve already suffered through his annual first half suckitude. Through June 17th last year, he was hitting .206/.280/.385 – he hit .310/.381/.599 the rest of the year. You just have to wait it out and hope he starts hitting.
Is there a ballpark percentage you would put on these moves happening or at least 1 of them coming to fruition?
I doubt Hargrove will go to Morrow in the 8th inning of a one run game tomorrow night. But Jones up and Feierabend into the rotation are both unlikely. Grover doesn’t like young players, doesn’t like platoons, and is painfully loyal to veterans with established track records.
What is Wlad’s defense like? Would it be worth considering him over Guillen in right?
Not good, and no. Wlad should spend the whole year in the minors. He’s out of options after the season, so these are his last few months where he’ll be able to develop in Triple-A. There’s no reason to cut that short early.
Mateo isn’t coming back, even before the flap I think even the casual fans had finally started to realize he was bad. I had started to hear it from some very typical mariners fans I know, the kind of people who love WFB (which I should point out they’re also starting to realize he’s nothing more than a bench bat, thank god)
Death knell. You wanted knell, there, not knoll. Death isn’t a grassy hill.
If Morrow’s arm is tired, sticking him in the rotation in the minors is just asking for trouble. Sticking him in low leverage situations and giving him several days between appearances gives him a chance to show that his arm is okay.
Okay, but what do you accomplish by putting him in low leverage situations that you wouldn’t also accomplish by DLing him for a couple of weeks then sending him down? It doesn’t appear that the M’s lack for low-leverage guys – what with Woods going back down to Tacoma & HoRam on the DL. What’s the downside to shutting Morrow down for a couple of weeks then putting him back on course to start down the road?
What’s the downside to shutting Morrow down for a couple of weeks then putting him back on course to start down the road?
If you DL him and he’s not hurt, then you’ve just wasted some development time. If he’s not telling the trainers that his arm hurts, then just sticking him on the DL because he can’t throw strikes isn’t productive.
12. Knell is apt.
I understand one of the major barriers to Jones’ entry is the right-handed heavy lineup. Does the need for him to get ABs in Safeco every night outweigh this potential issue?
“If the Mariners are serious about getting back in this thing, there are some things they can do to put a better team on the field for the next three weeks and give themselves a better chance.”
Morrow in the minors doesn’t give the M’s a final push to get back into contention.
#16, sure it does, if he isn’t blowing people away any more, and that’s all he had, what good is a guy who can barely top 95 on a 4-seamer, doesn’t really throw another pitch worth talking about, and can’t hit the broadside of a barn if you stood him 10 feet away? Give the job to someone who actually knows how to pitch.
Does the need for him to get ABs in Safeco every night outweigh this potential issue.
Yep. At this point, with Guillen’s ankles limiting his ability to run and Beltre unable to play, the defense is so horrible that the team just needs to put people on the field capable of turning balls in play into outs. The fact that Jones will outhit Vidro and Guillen is just a bonus.
Dave – so are you concluding that there’s nothing the organization could/should do at this point to put Morrow back on the starter track for this year?
I guess I’m struggling with the logic here since he doesn’t seem to be adding much value at present to the major league club & he wouldn’t provide much value in lower-leverage situations. He might be better than Woods/HoRam/Mateo but how much does it actually matter in those situations?
THANK YOU, Dave!
I wasn’t critizing what Morrow has done, I’m just saying, one pitch that lacks the movement and velocity to get by on by itself + no control + no idea how to be an effective MLB pitcher w/o throwing 98/99 mph = disaster waiting to happen for everybody involved.
Dave – so are you concluding that there’s nothing the organization could/should do at this point to put Morrow back on the starter track for this year?
Right – he’s nowhere close to being able to contribute as a major league starter. He’s going to need to take some monstrous steps forward to be able to be able to start in the majors next year. There’s no way you should even think about putting him in the rotation this year.
I guess I’m struggling with the logic here since he doesn’t seem to be adding much value at present to the major league club & he wouldn’t provide much value in lower-leverage situations.
The whole point of putting him in low leverage situations is to find out if his arm is okay. If he gets a few days off, comes into the 6th inning of a blowout, and still can’t get past 92, then you start prodding him until he admits his arm hurts, and you shut him down.
If he starts hitting 96 again and blowing his fastball by hitters, and the team rolls off a 15-4 streak heading into the all-star break, than you’re at a point where you keep him with the big club and have him help the team win ballgames this year.
I wonder how HoRam would do in the pen. He’s always had groundball tendancies, what would happen if he could throw max effort for just an inning? Could he be a good reliever or would he just be Sean Greens left handed twin?
I wonder how HoRam would do in the pen. He’s always had groundball tendancies, what would happen if he could throw max effort for just an inning? Could he be a good reliever or would he just be Sean Greens left handed twin?
He doesn’t have an outpitch, he’s not the kind of guy who would add significant velocity, and his command sucks. He’s just not a major league pitcher. He never was.
There’s no way you should even think about putting him in the rotation this year.
I didn’t word that very well – I didn’t mean that you would put him in the Seattle rotation this year but that you would put him in the West Tenn rotation so that he can develop as a starter. Was wondering if you were concluding that putting him in West Tenn this year would actually be a hindrance to his long-term development since he’s already had so much work in Seattle.
…still can’t get past 92, then you start prodding him until he admits his arm hurts, and you shut him down.
Is there any reason that you couldn’t just send him out for an MRI today to see if there is any inflammation/swelling?
You think they’d just make a roster move to light a fire under these guys asses.
and we know this how?
I didn’t word that very well – I didn’t mean that you would put him in the Seattle rotation this year but that you would put him in the West Tenn rotation so that he can develop as a starter.
They need to be careful with his workload, and sticking him in West Tennessee and letting him run up 80-90 innings the rest of the year as a starter is borderline wreckless, considering his recent workloads and usage patterns. They’ve essentially committed to him as a reliever for this year, and switching him back to the rotation and significantly upping his pitch totals is a great way to send him under the knife.
Is there any reason that you couldn’t just send him out for an MRI today to see if there is any inflammation/swelling?
Unless he has a torn ligament, they’ll just draw the conclusion that his arm is fine. Just like they have every other time they’ve had a guy struggle with reduced velocity and stuff, ran an MRI, declared him fine, and then watched him undergo surgery at a later point.
Unless he has a torn ligament, they’ll just draw the conclusion that his arm is fine. Just like they have every other time they’ve had a guy struggle with reduced velocity and stuff, ran an MRI, declared him fine, and then watched him undergo surgery at a later point.
Is it me or is that incredibly reckless? Are they missing/ignoring swelling on the MRIs or is harder to spot than it seems like it should be?
MRIs don’t come with glowing red orbs indicating that there is pain in a particular spot. It’s pretty common for guys who are pretty clearly pitching through pain to have an MRI and get a clean bill of health. Francisco Liriano, last year, went through the same exact thing.
Ligament and tendon injuries can be hard to spot at first, and hard to treat, sometimes too much rest can be a bad thing, yet overuse is almost always the wrong thing. I’ve had more than my fair share of shoulder problems, and have learned resting it too much can be just as bad as using it too much. I think that’s why Dave recommends low leverage bullpen usage unless he clearly can’t throw the ball with any kind of velocity.
coolstandings.com has the M’s chances now at 6.9%, down from 28% on Thursday. Even more aggravating, the Astros, Jim Thomsen’s TEAM THAT WOULD WIN IT ALL IF THEY WOULD JUST CUT BIGGIO, saw their playoff chances rise from less than 1%… to 3%.
Clearly, Biggio heard all the smack Jim was talking about him during the last week:
During the series… .400/.400/.800 4 RBIs, 2 rs.
I don’t think the mariners can cut it without one or more of the pitchers stepping up. Washburn tried to do his best Jamie Moyer impersonation, but the league figured out it was really just him, and Felix still hasn’t figured out how to be an ace quite yet, and our defense is the opposite of good, I just don’t see that much hope, our offense isn’t strong enough to carry the team by itself.
I know what you’re getting at Dave, we do what we can to get by and see if we’re buyers come the break, but really, 7-10% sounds about right, right now. I just hope the team doesn’t get dillusional and start trading talent away in some desperate attempt to save face/jobs… I mean win games.
Also, doctors still don’t have a real grip on the physiology of pitching, and MRI and CAT and PET have brought more answers than questions. It’s clear that the violent mechanics of pitching creates all sorts of tears and fractures, but doctors still aren’t clear whether a micro-tear in a ligament is nothing to worry about or the impending end of a guy’s career.
You could stick Morrow’s arm in the MRI today and it could show no problems, then he frays his labrum on Tuesday night. Or it could show tears in his UCL, but then he pitches right through it and never sees the DL. You just don’t know. It’s not like a broken bone, where the injury is clear.
One interesting sidenote: “Bone bruises” have only been known to the medical community for about 20 years or so, because it took CAT/MRI to even prove decisively you could bruise bone.
By the way, an interesting note about Wlad…his walkoff HR in the 12th inning Friday night was hit off Donnie Sadler, the journeyman utility infielder, who came in when Tucson ran out of pitchers.
Mike Morse is hitting 313/382/482 and starting at 3B in Tacoma. Curto said a few weeks ago that Morse is playing a decent 3B defensively. Shouldn’t he be filling in for Beltre?
Morse is hurt.
The M’s would have won yesterday (and increased their playoff chances) if only Bloomquist had played — during this series, Willie hit .400/.400/1.000, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI
The M’s are still an 80-85 win team that’s improved somewhat on last year, but flawed and unlikely to make the playoffs without a ton of lucky breaks. Sounds about in line with the preseason predictions.
The interesting question is if Howard Lincoln sees an 85 win team that’s 7 games out at the end of the year that cost him $110 million, if he’s going to accept that. Realistically, the M’s can’t reduce salary, thanks to their offseason additions/bad signings- Sexson/Washburn/Batista/Vidro are still going to be big underperforming drags on next year’s payroll (representing almost 50 million in salary in 5 roster spots- and collectively, they aren’t worth half that), and while there would be some options to dump salary (let Guillen walk and hand RF to Adam Jones, let Weaver and HoRam walk and hand the 45 spots to Baek/Feierabend/whoever won’t cost much), most of that is going to get given back to Ichiro on a contract if he comes back (unless the team backloads the money).
The next GM (or, if Howard Lincoln blathers about “progress” and brings Bavasi back) is going to be in a bit of a pickle when it comes to reshaping the roster right away- stuck with a bunch of guys who are seriously overpaid and have essentially negative trade value- and there will likely be the temptation to keep Guillen around if he has a decent year, keep running Sexson and Vidro out every day in 2008 since they’ll be making 20 million, not giving up on HoRam, etc., unless the GM is willing to be VERY aggressive about pruning the deadweight and willing to accept a Cleveland-style teardown for at least 2008.
The problem with pruning the deadweight is that it would require the ownership group to eat tens of millions of dollars in salary.
Dave, you mentioned above that Grover doesn’t like young players (agree). How does that square with the reason for keeping him? (Uniquely qualified to manage young players) I suspect that he might be about ready for a change, he is playing Sexson less and less.
And they’re not eating it now?
Dave:
Now that we’ve heard what the M’s SHOULD do, what’s your interpretation of what they will or won’t do — and why? What’s the disconnect within the team between perception and reality?
And that tens of millions is in untradeable players.
OTOH, this is the one moment in history when they may feel compelled to sell the team. Pocketing $600M is going to be far better than absorbing $20-40M/year in horrible contracts that may keep the sale price relatively flat for years to come.
2008 is tough (excluding Ichiro, $20 million in contracts expire after this season), but things get better quickly after that. After 2008, about $33 million in contracts expire, and after 2009, about $36 million in contracts expire. The only players who have more than two additional years guaranteed on their contracts are Betancourt and Lopez.
Now that we’ve heard what the M’s SHOULD do, what’s your interpretation of what they will or won’t do — and why? What’s the disconnect within the team between perception and reality?
My guess is that tomorrow night’s roster isn’t any different than yesterday’s roster. Jones will continue to hang out in Tacoma through the all-star break, Weaver will stay in the rotation, and the team will go something like 10-9 over the next 19 games, head into the all-star break 9 or 10 games behind the Angels, and cling to a desperate hope that they can outplay New York, Oakland, and Detroit for the wild card.
I don’t think this organization has it in them to admit that the veterans they spent big money on are worse players than the kids they already had hanging around, and they’ll die with the players they hung their offseason hats on.
Yeah, well, that’s the pickle, isn’t it? Though the reality is you could dump Sexson and Vidro and replace them at fairly little cost with replacement-level talent or kids for 2008, and if, say, Wlad turns out to be a decent option as part of a DH/OF rotation, you have $20 million to play with in 2009. Washburn and Batista are longer-term problems, but the reality is that they’d be tolerable 3/4/5 options in a rotation; the problems are that:
- the Mariners have no 1-2 starting pitchers, with King Felix having abdicated his throne to throw 83 consecutive four-seamers at the beginning of games, and there’s nobody behind him who’s really a good bet for 200 IP/xFIP below league average (which I figure would be a decent 2)
- Washburn and Batista aren’t THAT far beyond the Baek/Feierabend/Lehr group of true replacement level starters…but they are paid like they should be, and soaking up money that could be addressing the problem above.
I suppose in light of that the best option is to upgrade the defense and make Washburn and Batista’s apparentl value better- and Adam Jones in the OF would help, plus another OF and 1B who isn’t wearing concrete overshoes.
I don’t think this organization has it in them to admit that the veterans they spent big money on are worse players than the kids they already had hanging around, and they’ll die with the players they hung their offseason hats on.
Yup. If they did have that level of self-introspection, it’s unlikely the roster has this shape to begin with. Recall that LAST year, Bavasi was making bleating noises about his team being in it up through the middle to end of July.
And yeah, Grizz, that’s what I’m thinking, too. 2008 looks lumpy as a changeover from one GM to another if that happens. The problem is, of course, that how does Ichiro react to turnover plus a decent likelihood that 2008 is a year where a new GM has to prioritize flushing out the roster over contending and aggressively courting quality free agents, on the grounds that it’s a year where they get some slack to do so and it’s a logical time to do this?
As long we have the current park dimensions, and continue to run pitch-to-contact guys out, we need CF capable defense in LF. Adam Jones in CF is a no-brainer.
Uggh, in LF not CF.
As for Sexson, if he doesn’t start hitting soon, he’s going to fall behind even his 2006 pace. His OPS for June 2006 was .858.
I think all our problems would be solved by bringing back Ken Griffey Jr.
53: or trading Randy Winn for Ryan Howard.
Love it JL. If only life was that simple. Gave me a nice chuckle.
Dave,
I am curious how much stock you put in the concept of momentum for a pitching staff. When the back-end guys see Felix getting hit hard, do you think it has any negative impact on the pitchers who follow in the rotation?
I’d be careful what you wish for. I could see the situation where we’re like 10 games back at the break and that’s when the M’s freak out and pull the trigger on Griffey or Dunn, sending Feierabend and Jones to Cincinnati. I’d hope not, but if they think it’ll make the fans happy, god knows.
I realize (hope) the Griffey thing was a joke.
I am curious how much stock you put in the concept of momentum for a pitching staff. When the back-end guys see Felix getting hit hard, do you think it has any negative impact on the pitchers who follow in the rotation?
None. Momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher, and in the M’s case, their pitchers just aren’t any good.
The Mariners have attracted the attention of Peter Gammons, who wrote in his ESPN blog, “The Mariners have stayed within a game of the Athletics, who, incidentally, have a plus-60 run differential despite having 12 players on the disabled list. [in other words, the healthy Mariners can barely keep up with a crippled A's team] …And with serious doubts about Weaver and his 10.97 ERA, Bavasi is trying to find a starter to replenish a rotation that was 22-24 with a 5.45 ERA through Friday, not good enough.”
Trouble is, he preceded this with the type of comment that you will never ever see here at USSM, at least by our Fearless Leaders: “In these days of IGR (Immediate Gratification Radio), these cycles are not allowed to be placed in perspective. We have already heard calls for the firing of Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove in Seattle, and the Mariners have one of the five best records in the American League.”
Barely. The Yanks and perhaps the Twins will pass them up any day now, which would put the Mariners in the middle of the pack/mediocre.
Dave,
Besides Feierabend is there any pther pitcher not named Jake Woods in the minors who could help out this year in the event of an injury or extreme suckitude?
Also, how long are they going to keep Ho-Ram on the DL (i.e. would they transfer him to 60 day dl) and if they bring him off are they going to “rehab” him in the minors or bring him straight back to the rotation?
I think Justin Lehr is also someone you could stick in at 5. The peripherals aren’t as good as they look at AAA, but he’s a GB pitcher at least.
Trouble is, he preceded this with the type of comment that you will never ever see here at USSM, at least by our Fearless Leaders: “In these days of IGR (Immediate Gratification Radio), these cycles are not allowed to be placed in perspective. We have already heard calls for the firing of Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove in Seattle, and the Mariners have one of the five best records in the American League.”
He’s talking about the wrong team, but Gammons is right. There’s a sizable contingent of Red Sox fans that want Theo Epstein fired because of deals he didn’t make or the inability of the Sox to win another title since 2004. White Sox fans want Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen gone, and we’re not even two years removed from their World Series.
And you hear some of that, indirectly, on here. Team wins, optimism. Team loses, hang them all from the highest tree. But I think, on the whole, at least since the Soriano and Snelling trades, everyone here has been behind canning Hargrove and Bavasi.
#62, I agree, I don’t really know w/ Lehr (but based on his stats, I do agree) particularly, but the whole concept that it’s hard to find starting pitchers, especially #5 quality pitchers is getting annoying fast. It’s not just the M’s, everyone is saying it, and it’s not true. Replacement level starters are as easy to find as any replacement level players. The concept of replacement level has been so exhaustedly researched that any GM that doesn’t understand it shouldn’t have a job.
How about 4) give Broussard more than 30 ABs a month.
Until Ibanez shows he’s really back, Broussard’s the team’s best left-handed power bat, and Hargrove can’t find a way to give him more ABs than Bloomquist? Not to mention he’s sabotaging Broussard’s ability to net us a compensation draft pick as a potential Type B FA this offseason.
Giving Broussard 300-400 ABs this year would help the team win now and in the future. His lack of ABs is one of the most frustrating things about the season for me.
The Soriano deal is sooooo bad, that you could almost make a case for collusion
Gammons should realize that we don’t want Immediate Gratification, but simple retribution for the past 2 years of the genius who is Hargrove. This isn’t about a 5 game Losing streak, it’s about a lucky 5 game Winning streak that some how got everyone drinking the koolade, heck even Ichiro thought this team had turned the corner until he woke up in Houston mad as hell wagging his finger at Bill and Mike so as to say, “you tried to fool the Ichiro”
Not to mention he’s sabotaging Broussard’s ability to net us a compensation draft pick as a potential Type B FA this offseason.
I don’t think Broussard is eligible for free agency this coming offseason.
Besides Feierabend is there any pther pitcher not named Jake Woods in the minors who could help out this year in the event of an injury or extreme suckitude?
I wouldn’t totally rule out Justin Thomas being useful in September. He got rocked in his last start, but before that, he’d strung together a bunch of good performances, and his arm looks to be mostly recovered from the early season soreness. He’s a moderate ceiling 23-year-old LHP, and since he’s had less of a workload this year than those who started pitching in April, he could still have something left in the tank at the end of the year.
But, honestly, that’s a bit of a stretch. The real answer is probably no.
Not to mention he’s sabotaging Broussard’s ability to net us a compensation draft pick as a potential Type B FA this offseason.
Broussard’s only arb-eligible this winter. At the end of this year, he’ll have just over 5 years of service time, leaving him one year short of qualifying for free agency.
Really? My bad.
By the way, an interesting note about Wlad…his walkoff HR in the 12th inning Friday night was hit off Donnie Sadler, the journeyman utility infielder, who came in when Tucson ran out of pitchers.
Friday night was a good night for utility-infielders-turned-pitchers. Check out the pitching line in the boxscore for the Cardinals game Friday night. You’ll find this tidbit:
Spiezio 1.0 IP 0H 0R 0ER 1BB 0SO 0HR 0.00 ERA
Yes, unlike the Mark McLemore pitching for Houston who is a different guy from the utility man who played for the Mariners, this is the very same Spiezio we know and loathe.
Morse is hurt.
He played Friday night so I assumed he was back. Did he reinjure himself? I see he didn’t play Saturday and Sunday.
hmm. speculation galore.
It’s so frustrating to see posts like this, know that these are perfectly reasonable and intelligent moves for the M’s to make, and yet we already pretty much know that they won’t make them.
This management team has completely lost my faith as a fan, and they need to go. But the team won’t do /that/, either.
I don’t, honestly, know what the fix to the entire problem is.
“Rainiers third baseman Mike Morse went back on the disabled list, reaggravating his sore left wrist after playing seven innings in Friday’s win over Tucson. To replace Morse on the roster, the Rainiers called up Edilio Colina (.213, five RBI in 17 games) from Single-A High Desert. “
What kind of line would we be looking at for Jones for the rest of the year?
I’m assuming he’d struggle a little compared to what he is doing in the minors, but I’m curious as to how much of an improvement he would project to be.
I’m guessing something like .280/.330/.450, which doesn’t sound impressive until you adjust for Safeco and throw in the defensive contributions. A guy who can flag down flyballs in the gap while running a near .800 OPS in Safeco is a darn good player.
Bummer for Morse. He was having a good year.
With Beltre and Morse hurt, and with Burroughs fat and released, Bloomquist might actually be the M’s best available option at 3B (at least until the M’s call the Giants and ask for Justin Leone back).
Just how badly is Beltre hurt?
Justin Leone for Third! Oh, wait.
Putting Vidro at 2B and Lopez at 3B seems like such a desperate move that it suggests (along with his limited usage earlier in the year) that Hargrove has realized Bloomquist can’t hit.
I’m imagining the conversation:
HARGROVE: You know Mac, I’ve been watching that Bloomquist kid and I’m wondering if I’ve been wrong about him. I’m not sure if he really is the hitter I thought he was.
McLAREN: [speechless]
I wonder if there’s any chance, with the return to AL rules, that he’ll leave Vidro in the field and put Ibanez at DH. It makes for a horrible infield but it might provide an opening for Jones.
A guy who can flag down flyballs in the gap while running a near .800 OPS in Safeco is a darn good player.
See: Cameron, Mike
Of course, people will likely whine unduly about the K’s… also like Cammy.
The disconnect that I see is that Vidro is considered by Hargrove (see his comments about playing him at 2nd) to be one of his best hitters. Vidro is also hitting exactly like Bavasi hoped he would. Good batting average but no expected power. So, like Dave says, Ibanez is not going to DH and there is no room for another right handed player.
This site depresses me. Not because of rampant negatism but because it makes me an informed fan. Informed fan + Mariner fan + Mariner FO + Mike Hargrove = depressed fan.
Putting Vidro at 2nd and Lopez at 3rd makes the infield defense incredibly weak. Lopez is fine at 2nd, but has no real experience at 3rd. Beyond that, the right side of the infield, between Turbo and Sexson, has absolutely no range. Guillen will be picking up a lot of groundball singles if that is the defensive alignment.
Why not?
1. Leave Lopez at 2b and keep his good defense in place.
2. Play Bloomquist and Vidro at 3b. If you’re going to insist on playing Vidro in the field, why weaken two positions by moving Lopez to 3b and putting Vidro at 2b? Just put him in at 3b. You also don’t need to be as mobile at 3b so it would seem to suit him better.
3. Trade Guillen for young pitching…or old pitching…Anyone that can go 6-7 innings. Maybe just a pitcher headed to free agency or with a large contract.
4. Bring in Jones to play RF.
With Morse reinjuried I have to agree playing Vidro at 2nd only weakens the middle INF and may invite reinjury of his hamstrings/knee.
Vidro value to the M’s is as DH/PH not in the field at none of the positions.
If Hargrove feels the need to put Lopez at 3rd then put Bloomquist at 2nd tho he does have an option for 3rd in Broussard and Ibanez thus adding another or keeping a LHB to the order.
I agree somewhat with the overall suggested remix of the bullpen however here is where I differ:
Demote Morrow to AA Diamond Jax to work his way into the rotation and work on his pitches expecially his off speed stuff.
Demote Weaver to long relief and mop up duty in blow outs to save the pen along with middle relief with Davis.
Give innings 5 to 7 to Eric O’Flaherty and Sean Green theen leave 8th and 9th go to Sherrill and Putz til Lowe can be returned to the pen to share set up with Sherrill.
Another option if demoting Weaver isn’t enough with Davis trade Mateo and say Ellison for a middle reliever from one of clubs out of contention in their division.
As to the rotation I fully agree put Feierabend in BOR for the remainer of the season cause this young LHP is light years bettter than Jeff”demote me or DFA me”Weaver.With Feierabend the M’s bats have a chance to maintain a lead or reclaim opne before things get too out of reach.
I won’t say never but Ramirez as questionable as Weaver along with the fall off from Washburn etc….Now may be the time maybe shop around Mateo,Reed maybe even Sexson for SP help. I’m sure a solid #2 maybe available from a club or two who are in the hunt but need alittle more bat to get areal shot at it.
The M’s do have options in the second half in AAA who can fill any position on field either as a starter or as a platoon partner.
RF/LF could be Jones ticket to the MLB this season and Broussard can more than handle 1stB in place of Sexson with good offense from the LH side of the plate.
LaHair or Bloomquist can back up Broussard at 1stB should he need a day off etc…..
However if the M’s decide to calup Adam Jones I agree with that must be for a everday starter job or leave him in AAA to hone his skills.
Either RF or LF then platoon with frequent off days in the OF spot Jones isn’t playing with Ibanez,Broussard,maybe Bloomquistwith Ibanez getting the nod when Jones needs a day off.
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I’d rather Feierabend replace Washburn for one start than Weaver. Let Weaver have one more start, and skip Washburn once, letting him sort out his addled mind. If Weaver bombs in his next start, then stick him in the bullpen and let Feierabend take his spot. But for godssake give Washburn a rest–the guy’s been stricken with Weaveritis. Also, let’s avoid using Morrow for at least 2-3 days. Or, send him to AAA so that he can work on his stuff without detriment to the M’s.
Totally agree with calling up Jones from AAA. Put him in LF and let Ibanez DH 50% of the time.
89-Bearman need grammatical help…
90-I think you meant to say “When Weaver bombs in his next start”, because Grover’s given Weaver third and fourth chances to showcase his major-league skills and the results have been disappointing, to say the least. Weaver should not start and only see low-leverage action (unless there’s such a thing as a no-leverage situation, then sign him up).
But for godssake give Washburn a rest–the guy’s been stricken with Weaveritis.
You misspelled regression to the mean.
91 – “If”, as in Weaver goes fewer than 5 IP and/or gives up 6+ ER. A line like 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER would be considered darn tootin’ compared to his normal stat set (and compared to the other starters recent lines as well).
92 – Misdiagnosis. Based on the symptoms (his last four starts), it seems more a case of acute Ayala disease or Charltonitis–similar ailments that cause the pitcher to either toss batting practice-like cheeseballs that get hammered or totally avoid home plate as though a mine were hovering above it.
If the Mariners are serious about getting back in this thing, there are some things they can do to put a better team on the field for the next three weeks and give themselves a better chance. We’ve talked about most of these, but consider this an official request:
4. More Willie.
5. Even more Willie.
6. Willie without end.
Excellent post, Dave, and thanks. I have only 4 words to add to the end of your detailed analysis…
No.
Way.
In.
Hell.
I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.