Comments on: Weaver: Better Stuff?

By: scraps

scraps — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 16:14:07 +0000

em, it would be helpful if you could explain why establishing the fastball is a necessary measure for a pitcher. You repeat it, you call it “old school”, you imply that anyone who disagrees lacks “knowledge of the game,” but you never actually give reasons.

I’m guessing that you will respond with condescension to my ignorance, but if you could include some reasons, I could accept that.

By: Hit and Run

Hit and Run — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 03:42:17 +0000

“Hernandez seemed to have little downward snap on his two-seam fastball in Houston, leading to the question of whether he is not “finishing” that pitch, either because of discomfort or tentativeness brought on by the forearm strain that sidelined him. . .”

Why couldn’t the above quote from the Seattle Times be accurate in describing Felix’ problem?

This is IN CONJUNCTION with Felix being told to establish his fastball at the beginning of games. If your fastball is ineffective it is probably not helpful to not mix your pitches at the beginning of the game.

I remember Weaver being quoted at a post game interview after being hammered in the 1st inning (sorry forgot which game) that he was trying to “establish his fastball” and the hitters were all over it. It seems pretty clear that this was the team strategy.

********************

16 June: Before the game, Geoff Baker asked Hargrove about Baek’s poor performance in the 1st inning of games. Hargrove says its sample size.

16 June – 19 June: Mariner starters give up 8 first inning runs in three games (2-4-2).

19 June: After game Hargrove has meeting with players and subsequently coaches including Chavez.

20 June: Weaver mixes his pitches better and has success, including in 1st innning.

*********************

Are we through with the “establish the fastball early” philosophy? Felix’ next start will be interesting to watch.

has a coaches meeting and the following day Weaver, at least, starts mixing in more off speed pitches in the first few innings.

By: gwangung

gwangung — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 03:11:57 +0000

If he doesn’t learn it, mixing up his pitches at the beginning of the game isn’t going to help in the long run.

A hundred fifty years of pitching belies that.

You are STILL repeating, over and over, to be dominant, Felix needs command of his fastball. Duh. Tell us something we DON’T know.

What I am getting from you is “establishing the fastball” is a necesary step to Felix getting that command. What??????? That doesn’t follow (or if it does, nobody else is following)

You ARE wishcasting a magical solution. Throwing the fastball over and over, at 80% of the time and watching get it over and over does not equate to Felix getting command over his fastball.

And what the heck is the problem of taking the fastball ratio down from 80% down to anywhere from 60 to 65%??? How is that abandoning the fastball?

By: Sammy

Sammy — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:25:53 +0000

50.

I agree with you that, in the long term, Felix won’t be as dominant as he was in the Boston game until he learns to command his two-seamer. But why is it so important that Felix rely on the fastball in the first inning, especially at this point in his pitching development? Command is something that comes with time and repetition, neither of which are contingent on Felix throwing 20 fastballs to start every game.

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:12:46 +0000

Okay, so, that being the case, what can you give us other than “fundamental tenants” to convince us of the fact that the fastball is a unique pitch, which no pitcher can succeed without an effective version of?

By the way, Jamie Moyer says hello!

By: em

em — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:08:11 +0000

Actually, that is what Dave is saying. Dave counters the idea of “establish” the fastball early (Dave makes the point that the fastball is Felix’s worst pitch), but isn’t addressing why “establishing the fastball early” is actually a valid concept – if the fastball is good enough for it. Throwing more off-speed pitches early will not make Felix a better pitcher in the long run. Some may consider the concept “old school”, but a fundamental tenant of effective pitching is to set up the pitch repertoire with the fastball. Felix’s fastball SHOULD be good enough that he can get outs even when the batter knows it is coming. He throws a heavy (sinking) fastball with mid-90’s velocity. That is the holy grail of all pitches in an ace’s arsenal. However, Felix’s lack of command – his inability to spot the pitch high or low, on the black inside or out, makes this pitch less effective. Worse, he has missed towards the middle of the plate in the upper half of the strikezone. That is why he gets hit hard – not because he is throwing a fastball and the hitter knows it it coming. He gets hit hard because his location with the fastball sucks.

Dave’s petition is for Felix to mask his fastball deficiency with more off-speed pitches. Data analysis supports this idea – it would minimize the damage Felix suffers when he throws too many fastballs. However, this solution has no long term merit – without command of his fastball, Felix is no Cy Young candidate. To dominate at his full potential, Felix needs the fastball. This argument is not the same as wishcasting for a magical solution (give me command!!!). It is a warning. It is not the same as pedantic if-then rationale: “And if Cha Seung Baek threw 98 MPH, he’d be awesome too”. Dave got nasty when someone challenged his simplistic solution for Felix’s troubles. He may not want to admit that Felix has to get better by improving his fastball command, but somehow he manages to call me stupid while agreeing with me: “He’s never had good command. It’s a learned skill.” No shit.

If he doesn’t learn it, mixing up his pitches at the beginning of the game isn’t going to help in the long run. Understanding that concept apparently requires more knowledge of the game than simple statistical analysis.

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:07:10 +0000

Wait, what, are you really seriously stating that minimizing the use of his worst pitch won’t make Felix a better pitcher?

I just can’t wrap my head around that.

By: gwangung

gwangung — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 01:46:14 +0000

No one is disagreeing with you – other than to say that avoiding his worst pitch is not going to make Felix the King.

This is NOT what Dave is saying.

By: Benno

Benno — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:53:23 +0000

Thanks for the link!

I think… wow… Thats a lot of data to sift through. Well, I did ask for it.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:30:31 +0000

Here is the XML file for Felix's first start. Determining the URLs of his subsequent starts (and the metadata associated with the values) is left as an exercise for the reader.