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Game 74, Red Sox at Mariners
Hernandez vs Gabbard, 7:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
I’m going to be honest - this game scares me. Felix owned the Red Sox in his second start of the year, but his stuff hasn’t been the same since. His velocity is down, he’s not getting the same movement on his two-seam fastball or slider, and he hasn’t been able to keep his change-up consistently below the belt. Felix, with less than his best stuff, is most effective when the opposing hitters are willing to swing early in the count, chase pitches out of the zone, and generally focus on putting the ball in play.
That’s not the Red Sox. They have a line-up full of guys who will stare at strikes to get into deeper counts, lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone, and swing for the fences when they expect a fastball. If Felix doesn’t have better command than he usually does, he’s going to fall into a lot of three ball counts, which will let the Red Sox lefty hitters aim for the short porch in right field.
Jeff Weaver, for all the crap we’ve given him, put on a pitch selection clinic last night, throwing curveballs, change-ups, and sliders in almost any count, and mixing the off-speed pitches in with his fastball to keep the hitters off balance. We know from experience that Felix isn’t going to do that for the first 15-20 pitches, which will be overwhelmingly laden with fastballs. If he’s not peppering strikes in the first inning and getting easy groundball outs, it could get bad in a hurry.
As for the offense, Kason Gabbard isn’t anything special, but he’s another one of these guys with a below average fastball that gives the Mariners fits. He’s a lefty, and the M’s hit those better than most, but Hargrove continues to run out asinine line-ups, sticking Jose Vidro (.297/.329/.344 vs LHPs) in the 3-hole and Jose Guillen (.359/.438/.641 vs LHPs) in the 6-hole. For a guy who plays the L/R matchups by the book in making bullpen changes late in the game, Hargrove has no regard at all for platoon splits when setting a line-up, and his suboptimal positioning of the hitters costs the team runs. How hard is it to take the guy who destroys lefties and hit him higher in the order against southpaws, while taking the guy who leads the team in sac bunts and double plays out of the middle of the line-up? Even nine-year-olds with their Playstations have a better understanding of line-up construction than the Mariner manager.
But, I’m going to try not to think about Mike Hargrove, because after all, it’s Felix Day. Here’s to a happy one.
Comments
649 Responses to “Game 74, Red Sox at Mariners”
And this will be the only time we see Ellison tonight.
Here is to hoping for many various hard breaking pitches this Felix Day. No Manny for Boston, that helps.
After banging my head on the desk for a few minutes, seeing Turbo in the 3 hole, and explaining the situation to my fiance… I’m about to do something strange… I may be a little light headed (solid oak desk) but check this out.
Her response “Well if you want to trade him, won’t putting him in a position to add to his numbers give him more percieved value?”
So tonight I’m rooting for Vidro to go deep (he’s got a bit more power batting righty) and soak up some RBI’s from the 3 hole. I’ll cringe when he goes up in a GIDP situation, but hell, maybe Hargrove is smarter than all of us…
*back to reality hating this lineup….
If the first 15 pitches are fastballs we are in for a long night, Felix a short one. You’re right Dave this is scary. I’m not so Happy going in to this Felix day.
Is Hernandez really in the habit of throwing all fastballs his first 15-20 pitches? Whose idea is that?
Well all is a bit of an exaggeration but most. Some kind of garbage about “establishing the fastball” is what Felix and the pitching coaches have bought in to.
Apparantly King Felix sees himself as a power pitcher, and thinks he has to establish the fastball early or die trying… anyone have the link to that article?
As a Johjima fan I’d like to think he’s out there begging him not to but I have a feeling Kenji is a good little foot soldier on this issue.
Google for Charting Felix, and you’ll find a bunch of the research I’ve done on Felix’s pitch selection. He throws about 80% fastballs in the first inning, then goes to 60% or so in innings 2-3, 50% in innings 4-5, and 40% in innings 6+.
Basically, he “establishes the fastball” and then goes to his breaking stuff later. It, uhh, doesn’t work very well:
Hitters vs Felix, 1st inning: .341/.386/.537
That’s odd. Establishing it why? How? The Red Sox have seen him. They know he has an excellent fastball. Do the coaches think they’ll be contemptuous of it or something unless he throws a bunch of them right off the bat?
There’s the don’t show all your pitches thing that organizations like the Dodgers used to preach but that’s pushing it if he actually throws only heat the first 15 or so pitches.
The Mariners, as an organization, are about 50 years behind the times. They’ll realize that estabilshing the fastball is stupid about the time that we all have flying cars.
His boy Elroy!
Daughter Judy!
Jane his wife!
Hey, grover, why don’t we mix the pitches a little more?
Back in mid-April who could have imagined that Weaver would hold the Red Sox in check, while the prospect of Big Fern (my nickname for Felix) facing the Sox would elicit pangs of panic - from M’s fans, not from the Sox hitters.
In any case, it should be interesting to see what Big Fern’s pitch selection is like tonight.
Did Weaver throw a bunch of fastballs in his first inning or two last night?
If so…maybe they learned its ok to throw off speed stuff early. I am sure we all highly doubt it though.
I don’t get the panic. Didn’t Hernandez shut out the Pirates last time? Are they like the canadian currency of MLB? Is that it?
No one’s panicking - we’re just saying this is a bad matchup for Felix, especially since he doesn’t know how to pitch.
Sorry, it comes off a little bit like expectation management. He pitched a one hitter against them last time. It’s the Sox who should be apprehensive.
15- Pretty close, the Pirates are a hacktastic bunch of hitters who don’t take pitches. Which is great for most pitchers and especially Felix. Ever since Felix came off the DL patient line-ups have had their way with him.
#15: The Pirates as a team hit .250, slug .376, and have 303 runs and 55 HRs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox hit .273, slug .437, and have 378 runs and 79 HRs.
I thought it was supposed to be Jon Lester tonight.
Feel free to read any of the tens of thousands of words we’ve written on this issue in the past two years, James. It’s not “expectation management”. I’ve put a ridiculous amount of work into breaking Felix down, and I’m just giving you factual information on something you don’t know much about.
Actually, Canadian currency is getting pretty close to par. But yeah, past performance against the Pirates is not indicative of future results.
Does anybody else use mlb.tv? And if so, are you having trouble connecting right now??
#20. The papers say that the Sox considered using Lester but he hasn’t really been any better than Gabbard or Hansack at triple A and they don’t want to bring him up for just a fill in start or two they want to bring him up when he’s really ready.
MLB.TV is golden for me right now.
anyone else having problems getting mlb.tv to load?
23
Thats obviously a yes for me
Since that 1 hitter he’s been injured and has slowly been working back to his old self. We’re just fortunate he didn’t have to face the Red Sox again a couple of weeks ago.
Fair enough Dave. But it’s also a fact that the Sox haven’t hit him at all in a couple starts against them.
OK, is VW going to use EVERY SONG on the new Wilco album in their ads?
Sox stacking lineup with LHB (Cora for Pedroia, Hinske for Manny).
There’s going to be a lot of hitting him tonight. Fastball city.
Dear lord Todd Jones sucks. Watch him end up with the M’s by the end of July.
#26 I am having issues getting MLB.tv to load. Not sure if it is good to know I am not alone.
Sorry…Cora for Lugo, I meant.
Pedroia standing next to Sexson is inherently funny.
fastball = line drive
I can’t get Gameday Audio to load either.
8 pitches, 8 fastballs - 2 singles and a walk. Gee, who could have seen this coming?
Good to see Felix has shaken any first inning blues he may have had…sigh
Um, it would behoove the Sox to score some runs here.
Just wanted to say behoove.
8 pitches, 8 fastballs - 2 singles and a walk. Gee, who could have seen this coming?
Obviously not the Mariners.
#39. LOL. Okay.
That one was 95, closest thing to an offspeed so far.
James…
If your Sawks don’t score more than one run here, they may as well surrender and get ready for tomorrow
OMFG CHANGEUP
This scouting report is not novel, the team has the same info we have. Why has management not forced him into mixing his pitches early?
He missed a breaking ball! Crazy!
I think it was Casey Stengel who said, “if you have a nasty 88-mph curve, throw the bastard!”
Felix needs to pitch low and into the strike zone.
Yeah I can’t get Gameday Audio either.
The Mariners are stupid. That’s why. Seriously.
Lets all look forward to the 3rd inning off for good Felix.
Wow, JD Drew does suck, if he didn’t get a hit or walk off of Felix.
JD Drew k’s on a CHANGE UP
Hmmm…
#45. Come on. None of that “Sawks” stuff. I speak with very little accent (I think) and so do most of the people I know around here. Besides, I think “Sahks” is closer to how some of the horrible accents around here say it.
Slider, slider, slider, change - strikeout. How novel.
*Phew*.
The infield saved your ass, Felix. You should buy them beers and a stripper.
Beltre not having a Gold Glove is a travesty.
Absolutely sweet play by our corners.
No way Boston should get no more after one in, sacks jammed and NO ONE out, lol
“Amazing play by Sexson.” Uh, yeah, Dave. Maybe an amazing play FOR Sexson.
Okay, is Felix out of Mandatory Fastball Territory yet?
Think Kenji went out there and said enough of this fastball crap, lets see your real pitches?
Oh god. I’m watching the orioles versus the mfy’s on MLB EI and Proctor just threw a wild pitch all the way to the backstop off Posada’s glove and the speediest guy on the Orioles, Patterson, didn’t even try to score the winning run on it. Ugh.
So, to review:
Felix throws nothing but fastballs to the first three batters and loads the bases without getting anyone out. Then, he starts going after hitters with breaking balls and mixing his pitches and he gets a strikeout and a double play to get out of a jam.
If the M’s can’t see the pattern that I’ve pointed out to them, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. I do this for free - this is their jobs. It’s ridiculous.
My roommate from boston is watching this game too and he just popped his head in my room and asked, and I quote, “why the hell doesn’t he mix his pitches more - his sh** is filthy?”
63
That was sooo weird. Totally wild ninth inning…that is still going on
My anxiety about this game is much diminished as Scott Proctor walks in the winning run for the Orioles.
Sigh.
Proctor walks in the winning run
Yankees lose!
Gabbard looked decent against the Braves. Hansack, the other possibility for tonight, got hit hard.
anyone else still having mlb.tv issues?
Indians just tied it up against the A’s also…
Vidro, Vidro, he’s our man!
If he can’t strike out, no one can!
Ichie K’s, Lopez walks…
I guess this means Vidro hits a two run homer if the opposite continues
Dave, you’re a fool. The most important thing is to ESTABLISH THE FASTBALL. That is what The Book says. You know nothing about baseball. Leave it to the experts.
(Say, is that an iceberg up ahead of us?)
Dave. Is there any way, physically that the pattern they’ve been following could work better for him?
I missed the first inning. Let me guess, he started out all fastballs, none above 97 and probably only a few above 95?
Vidro…..
70-no problems with mlb.tv here although I have noticed it has been behind a little bit more than normal
I was worried at first that was going to be an inning ending dp
Okay, now double steal!
heh.
I’m going to drink every time Blowers says “nice piece of hitting.”
Opposites continue, he had a great chance for a DP and then nailed a LD single.
I can’t get mlb.tv to load either. ticking me off
The Mariners are looking patient against this guy. What’s up with that?
Hey, Rick Rizzs!
It’s pronounced “you-ma-till-a,” not “oomateeya.”
Thank you!
#83. I think it gets contagious. Seriously. The Red Sox have played a few teams that swing at everything and then suddenly act fairly disciplined against them. It’s almost like they’re shamed into it because it’d look even more dumb when the other team’s working your pitcher.
Purty. Remember when Richie used to walk a lot?
We’ll trade you Don Orsillo for Rizzs.
Richie used to walk at all?
I don’t know what’s more frustrating, not being able to see Felix throw all the fastballs and wanting to (screw you mlb.tv). Or just knowing that’s what I’m missing.
80 - I’m gonna drink every time Felix throws a first-pitch 4-seamer. It’s ok, I’m not going anywhere tonight. Besides, I’m drinking Sam Adams. Yummy.
82: right there with you, it’s not even prompting me with the login screen.
I have to say I like that Richie seems more patient at the plate this year. Drawing walks isnt a bad thing, in the past it would just be another K.
How do you pronounce Orsillo–”urzillyou?”
Dave. Is there any way, physically that the pattern they’ve been following could work better for him?
No. Mixing pitches is better than being predictable. It’s the difference between throwing and pitching.
WTF? Is this a special pitch with your head up your butt promotional series for the Sox?
Kenji is HARD, man. I love that guy.
Richie walked nearly 90 times in 2005.
Sam Adams? Not Red Hook?
#83 I hope that this is an intentional change of strategy for the M’s.
I finally got it loaded… and we’ve got the bases juiced!!! I got in through mlb.com, scoreboard, then clicked on the mlb.tv if that helps anyone else
Man this is upsetting. I got mlb.tv for the main reason to watch Felix.
Gabbard looks like he’s working harder than he needs, motion-wise. Bad for the accuracy.
C’mon Guillen, convince us Broussard belongs on the bench!
31 pitches. One-third of an inning.
My mlb.tv just came on!!!
My mlb.tv just came on!!!
#93. Any of “moron”, “cipher”, “spouter of irrelvancies” or “fountain of blather” are deemed correct pronunciations of “Orsillo”.
Failing that, he pronounces it or-SILL-oh.
When he was with Milwaukee he averaged something like 60 walks a year. Not a lot, but respectable and wouldn’t you know it those were the years he had the highest OBP
Mariners…plate discipline…does…not…compute…*ZZZZZT*
So far, predictable is beating wild.
So is this Snyder turning around and pitching with his left hand or what?
This guy might not make it out of the first inning.
89 - Felix abandoned his FB heavy approach once he got into trouble, struck out Drew on all breaking stuff, his hard 90mph slider made him swing and miss twice and then struck him out on a 84mph curve, then got Lowell to hit into a dp on a breaking pitch. Youk hit a hung but out of the zone curve to drive in the 1 run for Boston. We’ll have to see how Felix goes the rest of the game though.
And Gabbard was the one who looked poised against the Braves a month ago. Now he’s absolutely hopeless. Great.
#107 — I take it you’re a Sox fan. M’s fans pronounce all of those words “Ron Fairly.”
This kid seems to be getting squeezed. He’s not doing himself many favors, but the ump is not giving him many marginal calls. I like this new found patience in the Mariners. It’ll be tested if Yuni comes to the plate.
I’m thinking if I was up to bat about now I’d take a strike.
Plate discipline is easy when the pitcher can’t find the dish.
Perhaps the Ms are following logic as such:
1. The pitcher has poor control.
2. The pitcher is constantly pitching outside of the strike zone.
3. The batters in front of me are getting walks.
4. I am now up.
Ergo
5. I will sit on pitches so I can walk.
Any bets on which Mariner decides to take a swing at one that they should be taking since Gabbard can’t find the strike zone with two hands and a flashlight
Is Gabbard really that wild this inning or are the M’s really that patient?
Patient doesn’t work if the guy is throwing strikes.
Have to think it’s his wildness with the vets waiting on him to deliver strikes.
Gabbard!
Unbelievable.
Go extend your lease at your apartment in Pawtucket, Gabbard. No one will trade for you and you’ll never get called up again.
4 walks and a hit batter? Even your free swinging M’s aren’t dumb enough not to see that pattern. Here’s Yuni.
120 - Yuni will
Beltre taking a low ball for a walk? Willie is going deep today!
If this trend continues, the M’s will vault from last in the ML in BBs - by the end of the inning.
#121. I don’t think even some of the strikes that’ve been called were really strikes. He’s gotten some curves below the knee called.
Sorry Timlin, but Gabbard is my new favorite ballplayer.
Betancourt doing his best Vidro impression.
Holy cow, Gabbard’s at 33 pitches and has one out.
Well…ya had to wonder when someone would hit into a DP. We just thought it would’ve been Vidro.
No way Betancourt was going to take no stinkin’ walk
43 pitches in the first inning. I don’t think he’ll get the complete game tonight.
Oh that’s criminal. Keep the effin’ bat on your shoulder Yuni.
Lets all pray Gabbard comes back for two.
Three runs on one f’ing hit by a team that doesn’t walk much. Go back in the clubhouse and review the rule 5 draft regulations, Gabbard. That’s your next chance to pitch in the major leagues.
Betancourt’s working on his merit badge in Clemency.
Betancourt has had a lot of big hits w/ RISP, but his criminal lack of discipline can sure be annoying. Even Beltre and Kenji managed to show some patience that paid off.
ding ding huhwhat wins
Well now that that silliness is over let’s see if Felix remembers he has a curveball.
I heart Mixing Pitches Felix. Fastball Felix is my least favorite pitcher ever.
97 - Thank you.
Richie Sexson numbers to illustrate what I am talking about. Strikeouts waaay down over previous years…
Year AB BB SO
2005 558 89 167
2006 591 64 158
2007 250 28 53
2007(*) 550 61 118 *projected
Nice K on Varitek, but those first 2 fastballs looked distinctly hittable.
You’re upset James? I think Gabbard is lucky to get out of that inning with only 3 runs.
Discipline? With a 2-1 count you think he should take a meatball over the heart of the plate just because the pitcher is struggling? At some point you gotta swing at strikes. And when you do, sometimes you get hits and more often you get outs. That’s baseball.
2nd pitch in the Varitek AB was that a curve or a change? I’m not watching on TV and I can’t count on Rizzs to tell me anything useful.
141 - Can I pawn my prize?
Hinske. Every time he’s interviewed he talks about how he can be a major league regular and they make it sound like he’s being a saint for sitting on the bench with his red hot .194 average and total inability to cover ground in the field.
wow got the feed going just intime to see that nasty pitch for the K.
I heart low pitch innings for Felix.
#146. I agree. The bleeding could have been fatal but he stabbed himself repeatedly to cause the wounds.
what kind of pitch was that 89?
Good pitch selection = 1-2-3 inning. Go figyah.
I mean the 89mph that was a high strike
Well, he’s mixing his pitches now. That’s encouraging. What was that to Alex Cora? 89mph curve? Or change?
“low pitch count” innings, obviously
He is throwing a 1 hitter, I would send him back out. Please please please Francona!
6 fastballs, 2 sliders, 1 curve = 3 outs.
This is so fricking simple.
147
You’re right. Yuni is an extremely disciplined player. My bad.
Mike G. The strikeout on Varitek was a really nasty 88mph Felix curve.
Felix seems to have his velocity tonight too…
MY GOD, WILLIE!
Welcome back, Mr. Gabbard!
Willie powah! Huzzah!
Holy Shit! Someone called it!
#159. Don’t worry. Francona is OBSESSED with the notion of managing for the long run and not burning up the bullpen.
Bloomquist homers? That’s pathetic. Can we DFA Gabbard between batters?
Oh my!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HahAHahahah. Nice work, bhsmarine.
GRIT BLAST!!!!!!
Hey hey! Who called that?
Willie: You see, Adrian, that’s how you do it.
This Web site is about to explode.
And yes, congrats to whoever called it.
WFB - Hades is now frozen. I got my ski boots on!
I TOTALLY CALLED THAT SHIT!!!!
128!
Felix throwing his curve usually makes for a Happy Felix Day.
Wow. You give up the funk to Bloomquist and its time to hit the showers.
“Willie Boom Boom, goes Boom Boom!” Sounds like a drag queen stripper.
Oh man…can’t field either!
a haiku:
With the bases juiced,
you’ve gotta swing at meatballs,
create runs that way.
long time reader, first time poster, thought i’d come in and give my cheers to mr. boom boom
I’m sure this has been said, but how much did Alan Embree suck today?
Gabbard is just clicking on all cylinders. What’s left? A balk. A wild pitch. Hmm. Errant pickoff throw. Maybe failing to cover first.
Oh well, let’s stick with tried and true and fall behind in the count to guys who don’t walk.
I am officially not able to comprehend the previous eventts.
Nice job bhsmarine.
I didn’t say Yuni was disciplined. But there was nothing wrong with his pitch selection that at bat. He took the first pitch for a strike — good idea with the pitcher struggling. He took two balls — good. Then he got a BP fastball over the heart of the plate and swung. That’s what he was supposed to do.
And to Yuni’s credit, his P/PA has gone up each year since he came in the league.
Bucky Freakin’ Bloomquist
Hey, Doyle started rehabbing with Sacramento on Sunday, I just noticed. Although he’s not hitting so well so far, as in at all.
The thought of the Ms beating the Sox in a series - or even (gasp) sweeping - hurts my brain.
This is really entertaining.
I think I should get a buy me a beer link for that, any chances Dave?
Sigh
Is this the same pitcher that Ked Ichiro in the first?
Turbolicious! I’m glad James T. got to see what we go through with Vidro over here.
Now that is a lack of discipline.
thanks Turbo
Vidro hit into a dp? Who would ever have foreseen that?
Vidro with his patented GIDP move.
Some things in life are almost prefectly predictable. A Turbo DP is one of them.
Wow, that girl beind Sexson sure finds those baseball cards fascinating.
Turbo hits into a double play while killing a rally hitting 3rd? Who could have seen that coming?
Oh, wait, that’d be in the game thread intro again.
5 more runs and I’ll be somewhat comfortable.
#191. What I see has passed through a different prism. Not entertaining at all.
Yikes. Speaking of scary roster photos:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5349
A Bloomquist HR and a Vidro doubleplay in the same inning…. does some lucky fan win a year’s worth of free groceries?
204. I understand. Been there. Many times. Last Friday, for instance.
I detect some Red Sox fan presence tonight.
James T: the Yankees lost to Baltimore. That’s got to cheer you up.
terry, hahahah classics 202 and 206
Out of Gabbard’s 62 pitches in 2 innings, Sexson has seen 16 of them. And hasn’t hit a ball yet (BB and K). I’m OK with that.
Vidro DP, Sexson K. Mariners are back to earth, no more Willie blasts today.
#209. Tremendously. There’s no schadenfreude quite like the enjoyment of a new york yankees loss.
1st inning: 1 hit = 3 runs
2nd inning: 3 hits = 1 run
Contact is always better than a K because it moves runners over right?
#205 - He looks somewhere between lobotomized and a kid whose puppy just got run over.
Is there a more empty 14 HR/44 RBI stat set around MLB? I’ve posted it before and I’ll say it again - Sexson’s stats are built on empty, game-is-already-over-addon-mode homers and ribbies. We have the least feared clean up- hitter in baseball.
The answer to most consecutive saves is probably Mike Timlin. He really went off in 1998 if I remember right.
E3
Um, he’s not all that nimble, either, is he?
bad sequence for Sexson here
Ole Richie (eyes rolling)
My 11-12 year old rec league 1B would have had that.
#217: I dunno, Sexson’s walk seemed kind of important.
I miss Ole.
Richie the last 7 days: 348/444/913. On May 7 he was batting 147. It takes a while to pull out of a hole like that.
His BABIP this year is 213. That’s some amazingly bad luck. I don’t see Richie as one of the M’s biggest problems right now.
I miss Olerud though….anyone got an Olerud jersey they want to sell…preferrably 26 inches armpit to armpit and 34 inches from the collar to the bottom?
Um, during this lovely little “Sheriff” reminiscence Mr. Blowers seems to have conveniently forgotten the ‘97 season.
To Pedroia from NESN feed with guesses at pitch type.
92 mph (fastball)
85 mph (slider? Curve? It was inside
92 mph (fastball overthrown)
velocity not shown and I’m not sure. Slider?
94 mph (fastball)
Is this velocity a bit low for him?
Beltre is money in the field. Glad his fielding isn’t going “opposite” like everything else
Butler just tied it up in Anaheim. 1-1
Oh, jeez. How did Crisp not score? Was that that close to being caught? Mmm. Not really.
Lopez should have had that. He has been sucking with the glove recently.
Yes - as noted in the game thread entry, Felix’s velocity has been down since coming off the DL.
Can’t really blame Lopez on that.
Anyone else notice Guillen looked like he wanted to throw Oritz out at first?
Gameday shows Felix throwing 95-89-97-90-97 to Pedroia.
Maybe they will be kind enough to hit into another dp like we did
There is no such thing as an empty HR or RBI. The Red Sox can score runs in gigantic bunches. I will take all the HRs and RBIs we can get.
Interesting. So, Gameday gives him a few mph more consistently.
You know, I knew the Reds were a bad baseball team before we took 2 from them this weekend, which was nothing to get juiced over…. But they freakin’ stink.
Vidro is tied for 6th in MLB in DPs now.
I guess that’s the slider with the sharp break that’s coming in 88-90mph. Even Blowers is noticing that it’s effective.
217. For two years, opposing managers have walked the previous batter to get to Sexson. Last year he made them pay. This year not so much.
Dave. I mentioned the 92’s etc because the NESN gun had him throwing faster than that in the first inning. I was sort of wondering if he had some kind of problem where he had full heat at the start but had to tone it done after that.
JD Drew has swung the bat like Nancy Drew lately
I guess the way to make sure the guy in front of Sexson doesn’t get walked is to bat Vidro in front of Sexson.
Brilliant!
Oh cut the crap.
Amazing play, Jose!
If Felix is hitting 97 on the gametracker, he’s probably registering about 100 on the stadium gun….
Does anyone know how gametracker registers it’s speeds? I think it used to give speed at release and speed while crossing the plate. Now it’s just one speed.
I take that back about sucking with the glove. I apologize, Jose.
Now there we go! Nice job J-Pez!
WOW!!!!! What a GRAB!!! Nice job Lopez.
Sexson’s OPS this year is 931 in close late inning situations. Not all of his home runs have been empty.
233- Lopez says shut your mouth when you are blogging about him.
Thanks Lopez. Fuck the Red Sox
2 observations:
1) It doesn’t seem like Felix is throwing his 2-seam fastball at all. I remember seeing a lot of it on Opening Day (the only other Felix start I’ve watched).
2) 242: Yeah, when BLOWERS can tell your fastball isn’t very effective on its own, you’d really hope the Mariners organization wouldn’t be too far behind.
Lopez!
If that’s not a Web Gem tonight, it’s just more proof ESPN doesn’t think there’s any baseball team outside of New York or Boston.
Gameday is still giving release speed and “result speed”. That last pitch was 96 at release, 88 at the plate.
I can only hope that Gabbard is coming back out for at least another inning or so.
WOW!! Just as I was cursing the infield defense this inning….I’m with Dave on Felix, you can’t argue with his research, though I continue to worry about his arm also. The M’s have proven over and over again that their decision-making process is rooted firmly in the 1950’s, so none of this should be surprising. And Lauren, after our discussion of SAT scores last night, you should be “SMART token chick.”
Gabbard has only thrown 62 pitches. He should be good for one more inning.
The enhanced gameday system (called Pitch F/X) that is installed in Safeco uses multiple high speed cameras to record all kinds of things about the pitch, including velocity, angle of break, horizontal and vertical axis release points, and a few other things that are tough to get your head around.
It’s an awesome, awesome technology. It has start velocity and end velocity, but the application only displays start velocity. The full xml file with all the data will be available online after the game. This system is why I don’t have to manually chart all of Felix’s starts anymore.
When Gabbard finally exits I hope Timlin relieves him.
Yes, Gabbard’s still with us.
Well, this will seem like sour grapes but I didn’t think it was *that* great a catch. Don’t most 2B men catch that ball? I don’t think a persecution complex should rest on that one.
Dave, who pays for that camera technology… MLB or someone else? And why is not everywhere?
Not knowing much about the Red Sox roster, can someone tell me why this guy is starting for a first place team? Can’t they do better?
Gabbard could walk Rob Picciolo tonight.
Aw! I hadn’t seen them showing Ole before. That must have been when y’all were commenting about him. He was one of my favorites in 2001’s jump-on-the-bandwagon season that made me a baseball fan against my will.
Err.. why is IT not everywhere?
I was watching Homer Bailey last week in Oakland and the gametracker was registering his velocities about 3 mph slower than the stadium gun.
Olerud looks like a big version of John Stockton.
Pitch F/X is owned by MLB Advanced Media, the company who runs MLB.com and all its entities. It’s getting rolled out in all 30 stadiums, but Safeco was one of their test parks, so it’s already up and running. They’re hoping to have the system installed in all 30 parks by the end of the year.
Nawh, I didn’t see him earlier, just wish we still had those soft hands of his at first base still. Saved many an infielder many errors a season.
Schilling’s hurt and Lester still hasn’t gotten back to the major leagues yet. This guy and a guy named Devern Hansack have both been pitching fairly well at triple A. But they used both against the Braves in May and Gabbard (ironically) seemed the much more poised one.
Thanks James. Glad to have you here, by the way.
#258: dumb question but where are you seeing that data. I’m only getting SPD/BRK/PFX
Dave. Is there any tie in at all to the questec system? Will this end up replacing it?
Almost every stadium gun is going to be several MPH fast. The pitch f/x system is more accurate than a radar gun.
There’s a downloadable XML file for Pitch F/X? Why didn’t anyone tell me?
Hmm. I could do all sorts of sinister AJAX stuff with that….
Gabbard can’t throw a strike and here’s what they do:
Kenji: swings at first pitch, fly out.
Guillen: walks on 3-1 pitch.
Beltre: swings 2-0, fly out.
Betancourt: swings 1-0, ground out.
Thanks for the hospitality, Ralph.
#258: dumb question but where are you seeing that data. I’m only getting SPD/BRK/PFX
I’m a nerd, and I cull the xml files and dump them into excel for analysis. If you google for gameday xml dan fox, you’ll find a link to instructions on how to pull the detailed data into a spreadsheet.
Pitch F/X is a much better version of questec, because it goes beyond simple ball/strike. But it’s a similar idea. Once MLBAM gets it rolled out to all the parks and we get a large sample of data, it’s going to revolutionize how we evaluate the game.
In the last ten games in which Sexson has RBIs, in eight of them they were important to the Mariner win. In the last seven games in which he has hit home runs, they have been important to the win in all seven games.
Actual evidence, as opposed to a repeated assertion.
Sexson is a second half hitter. That’s not news. Sexson has been hitting well lately, and has been an important element of Mariner victories. That’s not news, assuming your eyes and mind are open. You’ll believe what you want to believe, of course.
277: In the upper right corner of the pitch track display, it shows “release/result” of the last pitch. that doesn’t all make it into the summary table on the bottom left, but it is all in the xml!
Question for the M’s fans. Does Felix ever seem to fall in love with the breaking stuff and under-emphasize the fastball?
I’ve talked about it before, DW. Dan Fox, Joe P. Sheehan (not the BP one), and John Walsh have been doing awesome work by plotting the data from the xml files.
I get the xml files all the time but don’t usually have a ton of time to have fun with them.
This system is awesome but I also don’t think it’ll be free much longer. At least access to the xml files might not be.
IMHO, mlb would be smart to allow open access…. I think it’s the liberal access to a ton of stat data that has driven mlb’s popularity the last decade.
BTW, they’ve got to do something about their blackout restrictions with mlb tv…
97 mph heat just low according to the NESN gun
I should criticize Jose more often.
Lopez has earned his garlic fries today!
Felix pitches the same every game - all fastballs early, then 50/50 in the mid-innings, and almost breaking balls at the end of the game. He goes from a flamethrower into a junkballer as the game progresses.
Alex Cora’s a bit like a red sox WFB. The announcers never stop gushing about what a genius of a player he is somehow overlooking that he’s an idiot at the plate.
Now that’s worth repeating.
I think I hate Crisp’s batting stance more than anyone else’s in baseball
#285: thanks! DUH.
Nice pirouette after the K!
Crisp strikes out on three pitches - none of them fastballs.
It’s just remarkable that he is willing to put himself in a hole to start every single game.
#284: conceding everything you said, Sexson still isn’t worth the $$ the M’s threw at him. It wasn’t one of their more catastrophic moves, but it wasn’t a good one. He’s part of the pattern of overpaying 2nd level and/or washed-up players (see also Ibanez, Vidro, Guillen, Aurilla, Cirillo, etc., etc.).
He just changed to that stance a couple weeks ago and started hitting immediately thereafter. So, the stance is okay with Sox fans. But yeah, weirdly rigid.
286. We wish.
Hey, stop tainting the debate with facts.
286: It’s about the opposite.
#292: I have no idea why an organisation would let it’s ace be so predictable.
Unbelievable, KC is up 5-1 now. Cmon M’s
295 - I have to go with Tony Batista’s. But Coco’s is pretty bad, too.
Ok…I’m in a weird place now. After the extra-inning game when I promised I would enact a moratorium on negative comments about Willie, he’s having a really hot streak.
Does this mean anything? Should I be creeped out? Does this mean I’ll never be able to make fun of him again?
299-
Look at the 2 years prior to the Sexson signing - the M’s had finished at or near the bottom in runs scored, needed a kick start to their offense, and overpaid to make that happen. You have to look at things in context.
Did you know Richie’s most similar batter through age 31 is Mo Vaughn? It’s hard to see Richie aging well.
Well, that’s a good start!
I’d seen the Dan Fox articles, but I figured he was scraping it from some third party source.
I really hope MLBAM doesn’t lock this data down and also looks to converting this to a RESTful API. I could understand why they would lock it down — this is a bounty of data for unlicensed fantasy leagues — but wow, this is an sea of data.
I really think I need to whip up some AJAX.
I don’t think anyone would argue that Sexson is worth the money, but stating erroneous information about him based on personal observation has to be called out.
Come on Turbo, don’t suck please.
thank god no runner at 1st.
Since the double play is not an option here, we need one of Vidro’s patented dribblers to score a run.
299: I’d never disagree that Sexson is overpaid. I wouldn’t dispute that he’s having a suckass year, either (so far). It’s just fannish nonsense like “and none of his big hits really mean anything, either” that is irritating. It’s ballpark bullshit, and should be left to talk radio.
Kudos to JLO for recognizing that Vidro was on deck and that needed a double.
306-Craig Counsell’s always kind of bugged me too
We’re easily going over 500 comments today.
richie can show us all something right here, i have faith
They pitched around Vidro to get to Sexson. Please don’t hit it on the ground, Richie.
So, after that brief interregnum we return to first inning Gabbard. Wonderful.
I predict that this at bat will, in several people’s minds, prove their opinions about Richie.
I’m not saying Sexson hasn’t been helpful at times, just that he’s not worth the money he got, which could’ve gone to someone better. He just doesn’t rank very high among 1st basemen, which of course is a power position. I’m also saying this is part of a pattern for this organization; if this was an isolated case, e.g. as 308 says, in response to a specific set of circumstances, I’d be more forgiving. I’m with Dave on his evaluation of the organization as a whole.
Oh please. Julio Franco had them all beat with weird stances over 20 years ago.
#318. Counsell’s looks like the old Yastrzemski stance circa 1967. I always wondered if he’d seen that.
No one’s batting stance will ever be as absurd as Lonnie Smith’s.
I really hope MLBAM doesn’t lock this data down and also looks to converting this to a RESTful API.
If you have any specific suggestions, email them to me. I can get them to the right people.
284: Yes, stats can be used in many ways, such as you are doing. But this season … Sexson, batting 4th: OPS of 0.764. Batting 5th: 0.669. As 1B: 0.776. That’s a lot of nothing for $14 million. His 14 homers - 4 have led to a +WPA of > 0.20, 4 of a WPA between 0.10 and 0.20 and the the other 6 less than 0.10. I’d love as muich as anyone to see Sexson get it together and become a hige run producer. My point was that he has sucked basically all season. You point to the past week and I hope that continues. But I can’t imagine you are arguing that he hasn’t been a deadweight virtually all season. Or are you?
I miss the jay buhner
Not so much the stance but the hands on the bat of John Wockenfuss of the Tigers.
Or, all time taking a dump stance, Phil Plantier of the Red Sox and Padres. His made Youkilis’s look like nothing
I’m with you all on the silly ballpark comments part. Anyway, let’s see what Sexson does here.
the hands on the bat made it
Manny Delcarmen’s kind of a screw up.
Well that was perfectly awful.
I rest my case.
Wow. Delcarmen got 1. I’m pleasantly surprised.
For those wondering, yes, the FSN Tracer gets its data from the Pitch F/X system.
I rest my case.
And my prediction comes true!
The Safeco gun is crazy messed up.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
Isn’t striking out there the kind of failure that ends up loosing you the game?
crap. an effective pitching change.
I have to say, repeated references to “Boom Boom” make me start humming the parody French number from “Little me” ….
Sexson is having his usual year, he will finish with similar numbers all four years he stays in Seattle. It would however be nice if he wasn’t an Albatross the first two months of the year.
Delcarmen is Boston’s Morrow.
That at-bat really reflects what I don’t like about Sexson. What you absolutely have to do in that situation is get that guy from 3rd home, e.g. you have to hit a fly ball. Basic situational baseball. Instead, Sexson sees all those runners, thinks GS, swings for the fences and strikes out, and the team gets nada.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
No. The easiest way is to just use baseball-reference’s game logs to find out when the pitcher you want to look up last pitched, then look up that game’s xml file. A few clicks and you’ll figure out what his ID is.
Is Morrow a kid who grew up in the area who has good stuff but has so far shown no real feel for pitching?
I think Garcia cost us another run there. (of course Sexson didn’t help any either)
346 - couldn’t have said it better myself…
What you absolutely have to do in that situation is get that guy from 3rd home, e.g. you have to hit a fly ball.
Sexson is a career .374/.420/.829 hitter with the bases loaded. I’m really glad he doesn’t care about hitting sac flies in those situations.
my, but this must have been a very slow game thus far– we’re only in the 5th?
Almost looked like Big Papi expected that pitch.
348 -
Morrow is the M’s first round draft pick from last year:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060616&content_id=1508386&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea
That at-bat really reflects what I don’t like about Sexson
OK, I’ll try to beat Scraps to this.
On the season, Sexson has 14 plate appearances with a man on 3rd and less than 2 out. He has batted .308 with 7 RBI’s in those situations, and struck out 3 times. What’s your problem with those numbers?
346 Isn’t swinging for the fences similar to hitting a fly ball?
The switch to first pitch breaking pitches really is pretty obvious, isn’t it?
rigid, yet with at least two twitchy timing devices …
Any idea what Hernandez’s pitch count is at this point? They’re not saying anything on NESN.
Lets start an argument about Ks being worse than outs resulting from putting the ball in play. Maybe we can get Tango to stop by and comment….
80 pitches. Not good. But better than Gabbard.
Dang.
Ok, Dave, I’ll concede your point about Sexson with the bases loaded. Like I said before, my biggest beef with him is the contract.
Ouch!
msb: welcome to red sox baseball. Lots of pitches, lots of runners, lots of pitching changes, and routine 3:30+ games
And this is why we don’t waste those oh-so precious bases-loaded opportunities. >:(
well, fuck
I’m shocked. You can see Felix point up as the ball leaves the bat. Was he thinking it was just a popup?
Man this Boston lineup just doesn’t let you catch your breath….
352 - the first inning took over half an hour. VERY slow game.
Varitek looked like he knew he was getting a breaking pitch on the first one, too.
If you have any specific suggestions, email them to me. I can get them to the right people.
Thanks Dave. I’ll see what I can come up with. So much content.
For those wondering, yes, the FSN Tracer gets its data from the Pitch F/X system.
That makes me hopeful they’ll keep the XML feeds open. Otherwise, you’re probably looking at Fox/ESPN having to call their code on the MLB servers, and no coder likes having their code living on someone else’s server.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
There isn’t one key, but every game directory has a players.xml that contains the codes. E.g. here’s tonight’s.
I could have used some meaningless HRs and RBIs from Richie when we were up a few. That said, no batter is thinking about either a grandslam or a sacrifice fly: or as Jackie Clark once said, when someone asked him to analyze his approach: “I try to hit the ball hard”
Sooner or later Felix was going to hammered for some runs. I couldn’t agree with you more 365.
Any team with advanced scouts can tell their hitters exactly what to expect Felix to throw in each at-bat. It’s really quite sad, and ridiculously stupid.
#371: thanks…. won’t take long before I’ll have a key
Dave, I can’t beleive there isn’t at least one deep thinker in the organisation…. how can their own scouts not scratch their heads and speak up?
speaking of future USSM Outings, howsabout a trip to a Felix with signage (none mentioning fries) … would a good 30-50 signs all held up in the early innings exhorting Felix to throw the damn breaking ball get anyone’s attention?
Don’t worry everyone - we’ve got rally fries now - we can’t lose…
When you realize the pattern it totally explains some of the swings early in the count.
Hmmph. 3-2 curve by Delcarmen and close enough to require a swing.
msb: a couple dozen “Free Adam Jones” sings would be nice too.
sure wish felix could locate…does he see kenji’s mitt?
does anyone have a flyball/groundball ratio. my friend jayson stark was asking…
382: and i thought the bright red mitt was a dead givaway
Again with the fries! At first I was annoyed, now I’m getting downright perturbed. Ah well, at least the kids are happy about it
9/1 G/F for Felix
Dave: Do teams generally employ “home scouts” to give scouting reports on how they would handle the M’s? Do the M’s?
Delcarmen had a lot of trouble putting hitters away last year. Let’s see how he does with this 0-2
that seems to be a much more unanimous sentiment than changing Felix’ pitching patterns….
I finally realized who Michael August Timlin has reminded me of all these years– Chris Cooper.
Every team has advanced scouts who go ahead of the team and scout the next opponent. The smart teams supplement that with in depth data, much like the Charting Felix series, that gives precise breakdowns of what pitchers throw in what scenarios.
There isn’t a pitcher in baseball more predictable than Felix, though.
No command.