Honor Where Honor Is Due
In the spirit of a surprising three game sweep of the best team in the American League (and yes, I know that they threw Gabbard and Tavarez at us, but we threw Weaver and Feierabend at them, so call it even), this post is for one thing – to give credit to the performances that have carried the M’s to a 42-33 record. These are the guys who have put the team on their backs and are keeping the team in the playoff race.
Ichiro!
A great player who has put together a first half that is better than any full season he’s had in the U.S. The shift to center fielder has taken an all-star and turned him into an MVP candidate. He’s third in the majors in runs created, only 8 runs behind the slugging combo of Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, 5 runs ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, and a mind-numbing 29 runs ahead of Raul Ibanez, who is #2 on the M’s RC list. Ichiro is, right now, the best center fielder in baseball, and the main reason the Mariners are in playoff contention. If the season ended today, he’d be #1 on my theoretical AL MVP ballot. He’s had that great of a first half.
J.J. Putz
Calling Ichiro the AL MVP is somewhat controversial. Calling J.J. Putz the best reliever on the planet is not. Or it shouldn’t be, anyways. There isn’t even anyone who has a very good case for being in the argument. I could throw all kinds of stats out there, showing J.J.’s dominance, but we’ve all seen it on a daily basis – this guy is absolutely lights out. So, here’s my favorite number regarding Putz this year – yesterday was the first game all year where he was lifted for another pitcher, and I’m sure he would have pitched the last two innings yesterday if Hargrove would have let him. The first 33 games he appeared in, he was the last pitcher the M’s sent to the hill. When you put J.J. in, the game is over, and you can tell the rest of the bullpen to go take a shower. He’s the best relief ace in the game, and it isn’t particularly close.
George Sherrill
Putz gives the M’s the best right-handed reliever in the game. Sherrill is arguably the best left-handed reliever alive as well. Hideki Okajima could make a pretty good case as well and Billy Wagner’s still awesome, but Sherrill is certainly part of the discussion. Lefties are 5 for 45 with 3 walks and 17 strikeouts against GS52, pretty much turning every LHB into an easy out. But right-handers aren’t touching him either, posting a .222/.216/.278 line. Overall, the league is posting a .419 OPS against George Sherrill. When you can bring a lefty out of the pen in high leverage situations with runners on base, and he turns opposing hitters into an average hitting pitcher, that’s a remarkably valuable player.
Kenji Johjima
Kenji’s not going to make the all-star team, but he’s been a terrific player for the Mariners this year. He’s hitting .307/.340/.482 as a right-handed extreme pull hitter in a park that punishes right-handed pull hitters like no other in baseball. He hits for average and power while playing practically every day, and he’s not having the same problems behind the plate – primarily, stabbing at the ball – that he had last year. It’s amazing to think that two years ago, the M’s were cycling guys like Miguel Ojeda and Wiki Gonzalez behind the plate. Not anymore. Now, it’s all Kenji.
Jamie Burke
Okay, to be fair, it’s not all Kenji. Jamie Burke plays once a week, too. And man, has he ever taken advantage of his opportunities. In general, the backup catcher isn’t a vital cog in the machine. But, at the extreme ends of the performance spectrum, they can make a pretty big impact. Last year, the M’s had something like the worst backup catcher in major league history, letting Rene Rivera suck the life out of their line-up. This year, on a per at-bat basis, Jamie Burke has been their best hitter. The difference in value has been staggering, honestly. Burke already has more hits than Rivera had in all of 2006, and he’s made 54 less outs. Upgrading from Rene Rivera to Jamie Burke has already been worth a win in the standings, and the season is only half over. And he plays once a week! That’s remarkable.
Mike Hargrove’s Bullpen Usage
It’s not a person, so I’m making an exception here. Grover does too many other things wrong to be on this list as just himself, but this one aspect of in-game management, he’s done exceptionally well at, and he seems to be getting better by the week. He’s using J.J. Putz for multi-inning saves, letting George Sherrill face right-handers (sometimes, anyways), giving high leverage innings to Eric O’Flaherty and not sticking with struggling veterans like Chris Reitsma. Yesterday, he even used J.J. Putz in the 9th inning of a tie game at home, realizing there was no point in saving his closer for a save situation that could not happen. Bob Melvin used to drive us insane with his bullpen usage, and while I don’t think I’m ever going to be much of a Mike Hargrove fan, I’ll gladly stand and applaud the way he’s used his relievers this year. The M’s bullpen is, by far, the strength of the team, and Hargrove has leveraged this strength into a lot of wins.
There are other guys who are helping keep the team in contention by having solid years, such a Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, and Jarrod Washburn, but the guys listed above are the reasons this team is nine games above .500. These guys are the stars of the first half, and a first half that has the Mariners thinking about a playoff race in September.
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Would it be out of line to give Willie Ballgame 1 to 2 sentences?…You gotta think he has helped them win 1-2 games.
Without turning this into yet another Willie Bloomquist thread, no, he hasn’t been worth 1-2 wins. He’s delivered some big hits lately and stolen some key bases, but his contributions rank more along the lines of Eric O’Flaherty or Miguel Batista.
How about: “For a 25th man, Willie B has been pretty darned good. He still doesn’t deserve to start every day.
Coolstandings has the M’s at 20% to reach the playoffs. In other words: they’re in it right now. Free Adam Jones (!), and the M’s might be playing meaningful baseball in late September, or dare I say it, October.
What’s the background on Sherrill. I see that he came out of an Indy league but what’s being attributed to his remarkable season. Last year he seemed to lack control, the year before that he had a case of gopheritis while splitting time between the minors and the bigs.
Did he finally just put it all together? Control + superb strikeout ability = awesome reliever? What’s his repertoire? (I’m asking as a baseball fan, not particularly a Mariner’s fan, who feels like they don’t know enough about a premier reliever).
Sorry about the all caps. Just that the D is having some issues and the middle infield should get some love. Also the young kids like O’Flar, Morrow, Fireband have done a nice job.
Still I think they will trade Jones and Clement to try to save Bravasi’s job and it will kill the team long term.
Hargrove has also moved Lopez to batting behind Ichiro and Beltre down to seventh. And he has said Feierabend will make his next start. Is this a manager who has had a “come to Jesus” conversion? I cheer every win but hope this doesn’t postpone changes that will increase the odds of winning in the future.
Sherrill was part of the wave of indy league signings by former Mariners scout Charley Kerfeld. Since joining the organization, he’s been death to lefties, but has always struggled throwing strikes to right-handed batters. This year, he’s commanding his fastball better, and has been able to keep hitters from both sides of the plate off balance.
He throws an 89-93 MPH heavy fastball with a big sweeping slider and a change-up. He also hides the ball extremely well, and his arm slot makes it nearly impossible for LH hitters to pick it up coming out of his hand until it’s too late.
Hargrove has also moved Lopez to batting behind Ichiro and Beltre down to seventh. And he has said Feierabend will make his next start. Is this a manager who has had a “come to Jesus” conversion?
Moving Beltre down in the order, while having Turbo hitting 3rd, is not any kind of evidence of intellectual improvement. But this is a thread for cheers and huzzahs on a day where the M’s just finished a sweep of the Red Sox, so I’ll leave my assessment of Hargrove at that.
Corollary to the bullpen usage item: Hargrove’s usage has gotten better since Julio Mateo was effectively kicked off the team. Mateo gone gives Hargrove one less possible mistake to make every day. That has certainly helped optimize bullpen usage.
It’s been quite an amazing ride. Felix has struggled (great post earlier on his pitch selection, by the way Dave). The back end of the rotation has been predictably horrible. And the defense has been surprisingly bad. Yet despite no one on offense other than Ichiro have an outstanding season, the hitting and bullpen have carried this mediocre collection of players and management to a very good record so far.
I keep expecting it to fall apart, but then Feirabend goes out and throws 5 shutout innings against the Red Sox and Morrow/Sherrill/Putz/Davis (???!!!) shut down the offense long enough for Jose Lopez’s shot over Manny’s glove. Now, if we could just get Turbo out of 3rd in the lineup (or out of the lineup entirely) – Free Adam Jones! – maybe the run scoring could actually improve.
Here here! Most of all, it’s been absolutely FUN!
I still think Manny should go out into the outfield without a glove on at all.
Why maintain the illusion?
Maybe we should start bringing big signs to Mariner games that read “Free Adam Jones!”
The most amazing part of our bullpen is that the way the M’s front office has gone about assembling it seems almost… intelligent (outside of the Brandon Morrow thing). You have indie pickups like Sherrill, pitchers like Putz who were considered marginal as early as the two seasons ago, and a lot of youngsters. It’s almost like the M’s have seen how quickly relievers can become good to bad and vice versa and have employed a philosophy of avoiding pricey free agent pickups for the bullpen. Even Sean Green has been pretty decent in his last few appearances.
Of course, that’s with Mateo down in Tacoma. If they bring him up again then I reserve the right to bash the front office and Hargrove.
As much as yesterday’s game was won by Manny dropping that ball, Jose hit the snot out of it. That was not a cheap double he smacked.
Of course, in any other ballpark, we’d have seen five Red Sox homers yesterday.
Where’s the Big Sexsy Love?
A little more on Sherrill, too, and why he struggled a little more last year, since I’m a bit in the know. Heh.
Last year, I belive Sherrill was hurting much more than he let on. He had a similar injury to what Felix had, IIRC, and couldn’t control his pitches like he wanted to. He also got squeezed a ton by the umps, being a ‘rookie’ — but that’s less of a factor, IMHO, than the sore arm.
I’ve also shut up a lot in my laudings and praises of GS52. I’m jinxing him much, much less.
//grabs some wood and knocks
///avoids black cats and walking under ladders
You hit the nail on the head with this one. Putz/Sherrill has got to be one of the best R/L relief pitcher combinations in the league, if not the best. If Morrow can get back to how he was pitching early in the year, this is as good as the Nelson/Rhodes/Sasaki bullpen of a few years back (innings 7-9 were done). And Hargrove has been impressive with his usage as well. Johjima/Burke has turned the revolving door into a very solid catching unit, and Ichiro has been Ichiro! this year.
With the rest of the team mostly contributing, it seems like this team might just have staying power. Just about every player has contributed in some manner, though not in a career year style. Its getting exciting!
love the write up, but i would have had wash as one of the heroes as well, and in fact voted for him as the mvp on the team’s website a while back…before his recents struggles, he was off to a possible career year and was a rock while others were hurt, struggling, or downright dissapointing…i hated washburn as an angel, and was pissed when we signed him, but i have been converted, and am now thinking he’s an important part of our play-off push in 2007!
I’m still no Hargrove fan, but his decision making in general has been much better this year from last year when we were all repeatedly banging our heads against the wall. The bullpen use is one example, I remember a long stretch last year when he didn’t use Putz at all in several late tied games, but kept going to Mateo. There was a post about this I’m pretty sure. Of course, maybe he hasn’t learnt anything, but is just lacking a trusted veteran and going to Putz.
But also his offensive strategy has improved. He’s not bunting nearly as often or as early. And he seems to have curtailed the aggressive baserunning ethic that ran us out of so many innings last year.
Maybe the bench coach is making the difference?
they are talking on the website that lowe will be back soon, so maybe morrow will get sent down to work on his control, although it will probably be green…the best pen in the bigs is about to get better if lowe is himself…knock on wood…
Maybe we can trade Mateo to Tampa Bay
The Mariners’ bullpen makeup simply illustrates why paying big bucks for bullpen help (see this year’s Orioles) is an absolute waste of money. The top five guys in the M’s bullpen (Putz, Sherrill, Morrow, O’Flaherty, Green) were all M’s farmhands and come at a minimal cost. The vets the M’s signed for the bullpen (Reitsma and Rhodes) are both hurt. Even if those two were healthy, I can’t imagine them performing better than any of the current top five.
I also agree that Grover’s bullpen usage has been very good, especially when one considers how many starters fail to complete even six innings.
Adam Jones is still not right – I went to the game at Cheney last night, and he looked out of sorts both at the plate and in the field. The M’s do have *another* outfielder who has outhomered the RF and LF combined, and he has 6 HR in the past 6 games, including two last night. He’s a bit of a slug in the field, but flashed a cannon arm at one point.
I say this – retro DL move on Ibanez, and give Wlad the Clobberer a couple games. If he can hit an ML breaking ball, trade/cut Guillen before he gets too expensive and his defensive liabilities get too costly. Then, if Wlad starts to fizzle, you can swap him out with the other kid (no, not Jeremy Reed) when you need to.
Big Sexy is hitting .209/.299/.434. If he keeps hitting a homer or two a week for the rest of the season, then we can talk about him as a positive contributor.
who’s this “clobberer” you speak of?
I think the Mariners bench as a whole earns a plus-grade so far. Hargraove even seems to be getting the hang of using them properly.
Plus, I decided yesterday that Manny Ramirez is the greatest DH of all time.
the Phillies are desperate for bullpen help …
No props for grittiness or clubhouse chemistry or mental toughness? The M’s have gone on season-over-the-cliff 6 game losing streaks twice now, and have come back each time to win 7 of 8. This is definitely a new and appealing characteristic of this team compared to the last few years. Or perhaps it’s attributable to the contributions described above
speaking of jones, he’s currently #1 on the Baseball America “Hot Prospect” list in all of baseball…what’s that song by John Fohgerty? i think he’s “ready to play” coach…
Let’s face it: The M’s are a very streaky team year. We’ll be on the emotional roller coaster until they’re mathematically out of it.
Great write up Dave. After an off season that left me mortally depressed this has been a really fun ride
so far.
I’m sorry Dave, but I have to respectfully disagree on the Ichiro for MVP point. To be certain, he is having a fantastic season (140 OPS+, 92% SB rate, .316 EqA, 43.1 VORP and a 4.9 WARP1 so far). But A-Rod has been more valuable. He’s worth 11 extra runs in VORP and half a run in WARP1. He also has a 34-point edge in EqA, a 3-run edge in RC/27 and a 58-point edge in OPS+. Though Ichiro has most certainly been the better defender at a premium position and the better baserunner by a substantial margin, there is an awfully wide margin between the offensive contributions of the two players.
While Ichiro has been fantastic and deserves to be in the MVP discussion, I just don’t see how any objective analysis ends with him being better than A-Rod at this point in the season.
A-Rod’s been a better hitter without a doubt, but you’re undervaluing defense. A-Rod is not a good defensive third baseman, and Ichiro’s a gold glove center fielder. The difference in offensive value so far is about 10 runs, but I’d argue that the difference in defensive value swallows that gap with ease.
And WARP is useless, by the way.
Being a sportsfan can be a bipolar experience. Weren’t we planning only for next year about a week ago?
I honestly don’t think this team is good enough to make the playoffs. I don’t think this sweep of the Red Sox fundamentally changes anything.
Get Adam Jones into the lineup over Vidro and upgrade one pitcher (Buehrle, or someone of his quality), and we’d have a real fighting man’s longshot chance. (Upgrade two pitchers and I guess we’d be legitimate wildcard contenders) As is, I can’t see it.
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Hargrove’s usage has gotten better since Julio Mateo was effectively kicked off the team. Mateo gone gives Hargrove one less possible mistake to make every day. That has certainly helped optimize bullpen usage.
In that case, Mateo might deserve some credit, there. If he hadn’t gotten himself arrested, Grover would still be sending him out there to get double plays.
Is Kerfeld the same Charlie Kerfeld who pitched for the Astros?
What happened to A-Rod’s defense? Wasn’t he really good at one point?
upgrade one pitcher (Buehrle, or someone of his quality)
Fixing Felix’s pitch selection does that. Weaver’s rebirth might do that (I know he’s not as good as he’s looked the last couple of game, but he’s clearly improved from his performance in the first 4-6 games).
A-Rod was a good shortstop. He was never an especially good third baseman.
Though, something about the way he plays third base tricked the stat-based metrics into thinking Jeter was suddenly adequate at short. I still don’t understand what happened there, but Jeter developing a good glove wasn’t it.
Is Kerfeld the same Charlie Kerfeld who pitched for the Astros?
The one and only.
What happened to A-Rod’s defense? Wasn’t he really good at one point?
He’s aged and bulked up somewhat.
I’m curious how Kerfeld became an independent league scout. Do you know if he played in the independent leagues himself?
Kerfeld was a pro scout who also covered the indy leagues. His role with the Mariners wasn’t that of independant league scout. That was just the part he got re-famous for.
And Charley’s a champion of the people, so the fact that he went and found some kids in the middle of nowhere and gave them a shot isn’t a big surprise.
40 – Having played both, SS and 3B are two completely diferent positions that require different sets of inherent abilities. 3B is the most reactionary position on the diamond and it presents the toughest array of throws. Some guys simply have it (Beltre) and some guys don’t (ARod), regardless of how many reps they take or how strong their arm is.
Good for Kerfeld. Gotta admire guys who’ve got theirs but still look out for other people.
Who is Charley working for these days? We need to cut Turbo, move Ibanez to DH and get Jones and/or Wlad in LF and the offense will be much better. Of course, I’m preaching to the choir here….
Has Guillen been pulling his weight lately? Would Wlad be an upgrade this season?
Kerfeld and Pat Gillick are really good friends, so when Gillick took over in Philly, he hired Kerfeld away from the Rangers and made him a special assistant to the GM.
Wlad’s on fire, and I had a scout tell me last night that he’s made as big a one year leap as any prospect he’s seen in the last 10 years, but the odds of him being a huge upgrade over Jose Guillen right now aren’t very good. The main reason I want Adam Jones in Seattle is his defense. Wlad doesn’t offer value with the glove, and he’s a much more pull heavy hitter than AJ is.
Agree with every word.
The starting pitching has been just barely good enough. If that area improves watch out because the rest of this team is solid. (Well, with the possible exception of Yuni’s throwing problems)
The LF defense has been horrendous. I imagine moving Ibanez to DH, getting rid of Vidro and sticking a no-hit, defensive specialist in LF would be a huge upgrade as the current DH is a no-hit kind of guy…
I have only seen Wlad and AJ play in person once, two years ago in Lake Elsinore. I recall Wlad swinging really hard and striking out a bunch. I think AJ was still at SS. I think Lahair homered that game and Fernando Valenzuela’s son homered for Lake Elsinore.
They both seem to have made a lot of strides in the past two years.
It’s a shame that Kenji is having such a fantastic year during which there are a few other catchers having great years too. That being said it is a travesty that Rodriguez will likely start since he is clearly not having as good a year as Posada, Martinez or Kenji. Leyland strikes me as the kinda guy that would take Kenji in a second if it weren’t for those other two.
I still think Manny should go out into the outfield without a glove on at all.
Because without a glove he couldn’t make plays like this (which at least one wag has dubbed The Greatest Play of All Time — which, for a peculiarly Manny-esque definition of “greatest” may actually be true. It’s also the answer to the question “How do you hit an inside-the-park homerun at Fenway?”)
Back on topic: we all know the AL AllStar catcher conversation revolves around Posada and Mauer (when he’s healthy) and Martinez (when you ignore his defense). But is there a better starter+backup combination in the AL, or even in all of baseball, than Joh and Burke? Seriously, it’s like karmic repayment after those years of rotating-bad-catcher-of-the-week. I hope Clement is MLB ready soon (and I hope it’s as a catcher) but I’m very, very happy with the guys the M’s have now. And if Clement arrives next year, I hope that means Burke gets a regular starting job somewhere in the majors, because he’s more than earned it.
Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach.
next year i’d rather have jones in left, burke the back up and clement DHing with raul and vidro gone…but that won’t happen and clement probably won’t be ready next year anyway…
Also, if Safeco is the worst park for a RH pull hitter, what’s the best?
Coors Field. In the non-altitude division, Minute Maid Park in Houston.
If we ever forget that Ichiro is an MVP candidate, then we would have a mental illness of not being able to remember things.
The Ichiro quote machine comes through again.
I’m almost guaranteed to be a fan of whatever team he plays for next season.
If you told me six months ago that we’d be nine games over after sweeping the Boston red Sox, I would’ve asked you to pass the dutchie on the left hand side.
Excellent idea, Dave, to focus a positive post on the key reasons for the team’s success. There is, around the blogosphere horn, a tendency to be a bit too pessimistic about this team, and people almost overlook the fact that the team’s well over .500 and competing, and that there are positive, tangible reasons for it. Good post.
I think a case can be made for Takashi Saito being on the same level as Putz right now. He has a better strikeout rate, a better walk rate, and while he has allowed one more home run, he plays in a far more home run friendly environment. I’m not saying he’s definitely better than Putz, but he should make the decision a little bit controversial.
ralph- that ichi quote was hilarious…great thing to read first thing at work this morning…he just keeps them coming…love that guy…
Or, to put this in a different context, Ichiro’s on pace to have a better offensive year than he had in 2001, at a more critical defensive position than he played in 2001, for a team where his contributons are clearly more critical for contending than in 2001.
So if he was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2001 (and he was), he certainly is one now.
Dave, your so negative.
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Dave,
While I agree that AJ would offer more of an immediate upgrade to Guillen, particularly on the defensive side, I think Wlad would be a fine second option (i.e., if they want to continue developing AJ as a CF, or if they want to give him some more rest after his encounter with Sacto’s wall).
Guillen has been among the worst defensive OFs in baseball this year (after being the single best RF from 2000-2003, according to UZR), so almost anyone’s an upgrade. Wlad doesn’t have great range, but he’s got a decent and quite accurate arm.
Also, he’s not a dead pull hitter. His fly balls this year have been distributed quite evenly, with 21 going to right, 19 to center and only 18 pulled to right. The line drives are pulled more, with 17 to left and 9 to right, but 14 went to center. He pulls the grounders, but so does AJ. He’s looked like a complete hitter this year, which I know is almost impossible to believe, but his balls-in-play chart bear it out. He certainly wouldn’t hurt the M’s if he needed to come up, for whatever reason. It’s just great that the M’s finally have TWO decent options in the high minors, after suffering through years of Bohns, Bubelas and Strongs.
Even though I was just in junior high, I remember he was quite the cult hero in his brief stay in the majors w/ Houston.
Anyone know why he came out so effective for the ‘86 playoff team in his early 20’s and was out of the majors just a few short years later?
Dave – Assuming Kenji continues at his pace this year and is solid next year, to the M’s resign him? Would his age be a concern?
While I agree that AJ would offer more of an immediate upgrade to Guillen, particularly on the defensive side, I think Wlad would be a fine second option (i.e., if they want to continue developing AJ as a CF, or if they want to give him some more rest after his encounter with Sacto’s wall).
Sure. I don’t think they would lose much going from Guillen to Wlad, but I don’t see it being the obvious Jones-Ibanez-Vidro shuffle we’ve talked about that could add a couple of wins to the final tally.
Also, he’s not a dead pull hitter.
Check out his batted ball chart from FirstInning. Only 20% of his balls in play are to right field, and only 9% of his balls in play are to the air in right field. 72% of his balls in play are to left or center field. That’s a dead pull hitter.
Dave
Since were clearly going with a positive theme for obvious reasons, if you get the chance, I have a question for you.
In all your experience in the baseball world, who came across as geniunely the nicest Mariner you ever encountered?
Wow, batted ball data for the minors = awesome.
jamal strong…whatever happened to him…always loved that guy and wanted him to work out…
In all your experience in the baseball world, who came across as geniunely the nicest Mariner you ever encountered?
Brian Holman.
Jamal Strong signed with the Braves after the M’s released him, and now he’s kicking around as a Triple-A veteran, playing in Scranton and Trenton this year.
well at least jamal is still playing ball somewhere…too bad it didn’t work out in seattle, but good for him…
Dave,
That’s a reasonable explanation for the A-Rod/Ichiro debate. Realizing that the 10 run difference equates to roughly one win, I probably was undervaluing the defensive aspect of both players.
Out of curiosity, why is WARP useless? I had thought it was a useful metric.
Given that we must have nearly, if not the worst, production from our cleanup hitter spot in the league, I’m genuinely excited about where this team is right now. If Richie can just be a bit better after the break, we might really have something.
It is truly amazing that this team is 9 games over despite bad starting pitching and a worse middle of the lineup. I think good things are in store in the second half…
Out of curiosity, why is WARP useless? I had thought it was a useful metric.
1. It includes BP’s defensive ratings, which are horrible. You’d be better off picking a number out of a hat and randomly assigning that as defensive value than going with the Davenport Fielding Translations.
2. It sets the bar for replacement level at a ridiculously low level. Clay basically decided to define replacement level as the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, despite the fact that every study on the issue proves that the accepted concept of a modern “replacement player” is far better than that. He won’t change it, for reasons only he knows.
Even the BP guys know WARP is useless. Nate debuted SuperVORP this year, which basically does the exact same thing that WARP is supposed to do. Nate knows WARP is wrong, however, and so rather than keep using a heavily flawed metric that leads to incrorrect results, he came up with his own, more accurate version.
some love for Putz from Larry Stone this morning
I have a picture of me with Brian Holman down on the field of the Kingdome from when I was a kid. This was the year after his almost perfect game in Oakland that was broken up by a Ken Phelps HR with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. I watched that entire game and Ken Phelps broke my heart. remember, Holman had to hit in that game too and got a single.
Brian Holman was awesome.
FWIW: Oakland just lost to Cleveland 4-3.
I remember that too #79.
When Ichiro says something like his comment about a mental illness of not being able to remember something, is that through an interpreter or directly? If it’s through an interpreter, I wonder if the interpreter just couldn’t think of the word “amnesia”? Sometimes it’s hard to know how much of his unique phrasing is the interpreter.
I’d like to figure out a way to give Broussard more playing time… by playing him more against RHP (the logical scenario seems to be a platoon with Guillen, who is killing LHP and just dying against RHP). It would help make the lineup more balanced, and Broussard has more value as a 1B/coerner OF/DH than just a 1B/DH if he can demonstrate consistent ability to play in the OF.
Oooh… A two headed monster called: Guillebrou or Broullen
LOL…
Wasn’t it Holman that was never the same after getting hit in the head with a batted ball? If I remember correctly the ball bounced all the way back to the dugout, I think.
68 -
Why on earth do FirstInnings’ batted ball splits differ so markedly from Minor League splits (that’s where I got the numbers in 65). MiLS has the plurality of Balentien’s fly balls going to right, the exact opposite of first inning. I’d say it’s how they deal with line drives, although the gap seems pretty huge to me.
In any event, First Inning has Adam Jones looking like even more of a dead pull hitter.
Anyway, I don’t disagree with the idea that Jones is better able to help the M’s in the very short term. But it’s still awesome to have another (very, very good) option if Jones is hurt, or if they want to work more on a particular part of his game.
Oh, and 79 – I’m glad you brought up the travesty that was Holman batting in the top of the 9th in his near perfect game. People complain about bad managing now, but that was idiocy of the first order by Lefebvre. He didn’t actually get a hit, but reached on an error and ran the bases before his fateful 9th inning. As I recall, he hit because Lefebvre moved his DH to the field (Davis replacing O’Brien at 1st), thereby forfeiting the DH. The 9th went long, and thus Holman had to bat. You can say that the odds were short that the DH spot would come up in that inning, but there simply no reason to do what they did when they did it. You can make the switch after the inning. Idiot. Yes, I’m still bitter about that game 17 years after the fact.
Why on earth do FirstInnings’ batted ball splits differ so markedly from Minor League splits?
I’m not sure – Constancio and Sackmann get their data through the same basic method. But if they disagree, go with Constancio.
#85, your confusing Brian with his brother Brad. Brian blew up his shoulder….
Dave – That minor league data is great, and your point about Vlad being a dead pull hitter is well-taken. When I brought up Adam Jones’ page, I was surprised to see almost the same tendency to pull to left:
Vlad to L and C (rounded) = 73%
Jones to L and C (rounded) = 74%
Am I reading that data correctly? Is it pretty typical of young players to exhibit that tendency as they make their argument for a promotion from AAA?
Being a pull hitter isn’t inherently a problem. In fact, last year, we discussed how Bryan LaHair needed to pull the ball more to be effective.
The problem just comes into play with the Mariners because of the ridiculous way that Safeco is aligned. Since it punishes RH hitters and rewards LH hitters, dead pull RH hitters will struggle in Safeco Field, while dead pull LH hitters will flourish.
If Balentien was left-handed, with the same pull tendencies, I’d be jumping up and down about him getting into the line-up. But he’s right-handed, and that means our park is going to be a hurdle for him to overcome. For a guy like Mike Cameron, Safeco got into his head and made him a totally different hitter in home games. For a guy to have to deal with that as he’s also transitioning from Triple-A to the majors, well, that makes projecting immediate success tough.
But, yes, most minor leaguers who have already exhibited HR power are pull hitters. It’s rare to see kids under the age of 23 or 24 who have the raw strength to drive the ball over the wall by going the other way. That generally comes as a player ages.
Never was the value of Ichiro more obvious than yesterday. He batted in the first run. He ran the bases beautifully in scoring the second and winning run. He made beautiful catch after beautiful catch in the outfield. I suspect if he had been in center for Boston that he would have caught the Lopez “double.”
kcw
Given Safeco’s death to RH hitters, Edgar’s 37 hr and Arod’s 41 in 2000 are definitely underlooked accomplishments.
And Richie’s two 30+ HR seasons here… wait, is it okay to mention anything good about him? ;P
Well, I think many of the gripes about Richie revolve around his bloated contract and generally poor defense. And his OBP has never been that good…
I tend to think as a 1B you really need a 950 or better ops to justify a big contract or play great defense.
Who are the best fielding 1B these days? Certainly not Sexson…
Sure. It’s the second half, that time of year when we get Good Richie.
(Okay, it’s not quite the second half. He’s warming up, though.)
If you look through the threads, you’ll find that USSM has actually been far more supportive of Sexson than everyone else since the season started. We’ve never called for him to be benched or platooned, and have taken the stance from day one that the team is best off just letting him hit his way out of the slump.
The team obviously should have traded him last winter as we suggested, but since the year started, we’ve basically been defenders of Richie Sexson from the “bench him he sux!” crowd.
Given Safeco’s death to RH hitters, Edgar’s 37 hr and Arod’s 41 in 2000 are definitely underlooked accomplishments.
A-Rod, 2000, home: .306/.414/.573
A-Rod, 2000, road: .366/.447/.774
Yea.
In the spirit of a nearly-mid-season review, how easy would it be to pull out the pre-season wisdom-of-the-crowds predictions right now and see how the honorees (and perhaps a few key non-honorees) have done thus far in comparison to those predictions?
To expand on WARP’s problems, it’s basically a sum of RARP and FRAR converted to wins instead of runs.
However, then you’re double-counting replacement level because you’ve set it at some level below average on the offensive side, and then again some level below average on the defensive side.
Except no one is ever that bad. No replacement level player will actually be that far below average with both the bat and the glove. Replacement level players (like Willie) are often pretty good defenders (as Willie is in a outfield corner or at second base), or average bats with lousy gloves (like a Josh Phelps). The replacement level assumed by WARP would be like a player who hit like Neifi Perez but had the glove of Jason Giambi. But there is no such player in organised baseball. That guy wouldn’t be a star on his high school team.
Who are the best fielding 1B these days? Certainly not Sexson…
You don’t really need a great glove at 1B unless your shortstop can’t throw.
…
Oh, right.
I think everybody needs to realize that Jones needs to come up if the Mariners want to do be contenders. They also need to do themselves and Jeremy Reed a favor and trade him with another prospect for a pitcher. Reed fits very well into many national league teams. You can’t argue with his defense.
Yuni is a young guy and he will shake off his problematic defense as time goes on. Just sit back and appreciate how good he is with the bat already considering some major league “veterans” are still struggling at the plate.
When A-Rod hit 41 HR in 2000, he hit 13 at home and 28 on the road.
Edgar, however, hit 19 at home and 18 on the road the same year. But Gar’s line was 304/423/502 at home, 359/451/707 on the road.
*sigh* I miss Edgar. The M’s would be in 1st place with Edgar in place of Vidro at DH.
Dave makes a compelling case for Ichi as MVP. Being equally fond of the Tigers and the M’s, and without examining stats too closely, I’d have to go with Ordonez as 1st half MVP in the AL. This is a rather subjective vote, though I am reasonably familiar with Ichi’s and Mags’ stats. Ichi gets 2nd, and A-Rod 3rd. By the end of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if Ichi ends up getting my vote, however.
No one’s going to give us anything for Jeremy Reed.
99: My pre-season prediction for the Mariners 2007 record was: 72-90.
Like Dave, I don’t get paid to do this. Unlike Dave, I shouldn’t get paid to do this.
I dont think that is true. They still have two defensive liabilities in RF and LF. You can get by with one, but two???
They need another starter better D in the outfield and a better avg. from 1B.
So if Safeco was “average” to RH hitters, one could surmise Edgar and Arod would have had even better overall numbers in 2000.
Or perhaps Paul Abbot wouldn’t have won 17 games in 2001. Haha, forgot all about him.
#104 where did you get those numbers?
per http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=martied01&year=2000
.304/.423/.563 home
.341/.422/.594 road
Definately better on the road, but not that kind of split.
Just the fact that Edgar and A-Rod are RHB make their accomplishements that much more, let alone at Safeco Field.
I don’t see how a good glove at 1B is not important. If a good fielding 1B is worth 25 more outs than a bad one, how many runs does that save? I’m sure someone has figured it out. Or even better how good of a hitter does a bad fielding first baseman have to be to justify say…$14 million a season?
A good fielding 1B is not usually worth 25 more outs than a bad one, especially when you regress the numbers.
110 — I just can’t read. You’re right of course.
Or even tough. Being “tough” on RH hitters is not the same as “death” to RH hitters (as far as Dave uses the term).
I said Reed and another prospect. Reed has value with another prospect. Why keep him in Tacoma??? I cant think of any. Bavasi is waisting time. Upgrade your outfield and staff now. This might allow you to make another move closer to the deadline if you need to.
More like 10 runs.
Well, runs and outs are a little different, and if you take both extremes (bottom and top), it’s pretty close to 20-25 outs.
So, I am one of those troublemakers. Where do you guys find these fielding numbers i.e. that the gulf between a bad 1B and good 1B is 20-25 outs.
Sure, Reed and “another prospect” could get you a pitcher. Just not a very good pitcher.
Thats my point! There is NO reason for the M’s to keep him. Get something that can potentially help now. Someone mentioned Lidge from Houston the other day. Thats the type of deal I am talking about. We all know that he is not coming up here. I read on a white sox blog that they would love to have him back.
But there’s also no reason for anyone to give us anything for him. Trading Feierabend and Reed together should get us just about the same return trading Feierabend would on his own (not that I’m suggesting we trade Feierabend).
Sexson seems like a pretty typical defensive 1B to me, with typical being not a very good fielder. We were spoiled with Olerud. David Segui could pick it pretty good, too.
At least Sexson can throw decently. A lot of 1B-guys are a total zoo when it comes to starting the 3-6-3 double play or just making a routine cut-off play.
I dont think Lidge for Reed + Prospect X is realistic unless Woody Woodward comes out of retirement for the Astros to reprise Heathcliff for Varitek and Lowe.
As I see it, the Mariners best bet is to bolster the offense/defense internally with Jones and then hope to dumpster dive for a starter around the deadline. There might be a Moyer caliber player floating around at a reasonable (Darren Bragg) price.
Anyone decent i.e. Buehrle, Oswalt, Bedard, Zambrano etc.. will cost good prospects i.e. Jones + Balentien and/or Clement etc..
Don’t wishful think. I really wanted a Rolex for my law school graduation. I was disappointed when I got a card and a check for $100. It is important to have realistic expectations.
Why do we have Ellison up instead of Reed, anyway? Is there still an idea that Reed could develop into a useful regular, so they don’t just want to make him a bench player on the big league team? I mean, if he can be a decent backup outfielder, why not with us?
Evan, I see your point. However, when you look at what he is doing in Tacoma right now it is very good. It just doesn’t look as good with Jones and Wal in front of him.
I know everyone has given up on him and that’s fine. I just think that if they have, let him go. I just don’t agree with the idea of letting someone with so much potential left waste away in AAA.
Scaps…another great point. Ellison can’t hold a candle to Reed defensively. Ellison isnot going to get any at bat’s, so why not bring Reed up to be a replacement outfielder? Use him or trade him I say!
Well, if it helps ease anyone’s mind in the least… from Jason Stark on ESPN today:
• One club that is actively arm-shopping is Seattle. But the Mariners are telling clubs not to bother asking about center-field prospect Adam Jones — not with Ichiro Suzuki’s free agency looming.
That’s what I have heard also.
Why not put Reed, Clement and player x (maybe a draft pick also) for an arm?
Heck, you could even put Vidro, Guillen and Clement in a deal. Send Ellison down and bring Jones and Reed up.
I say we trade Reed for Griffey.
*ducks*
Not sure that could happen with out other players in it from the M’s.
I say we trade Reed for ducks. And a grebe to be named later.
Ducks. That’s something Safeco actually needs.
Ideally in sausage form.
Ellison can’t hold a candle to Reed defensively.
Really? As recently as 2005, Ellison was one of the top ranked CFs in baseball. Yeah, Reed was too, but Reed’s incredible ranking vaporized the next year. I don’t think we have enough statistical data to conclude that Reed’s better, and we have some scouting reports that suggest that Ellison’s quite a bit better.
And, not to belabor the point, but if Constancio’s data shows that AJ is even more of a pull hitter than Wlad, does that change your evaluation of how he’s likely to do in a half/third-of a season call-up? I think his offense would have to be pretty putrid to negate the defensive improvement he’d bring (man, what a difference a year makes with this guy). Still, it’s probably worth thinking about.
Every team in baseball has a player as good as Jeremy Reed stuck in AAA. He’s not a good CF, he’s got essentially no power (although he’s flashed some HR power a bit this year), and he’s 26. The M’s keep him because they need 9 guys to play games in Tacoma, same reason they keep Gookie Dawkins and Brant Ust. None of them are prospects or valuable in trade.
Really, a guy hitting .281/.339/.425 at AAA had better be able to play middle infield, because otherwise, he’s gonna spend a lot of time on the bus.
Reed’s defense is vastly overrated. He’s a marginal defensive CF, and his bat can’t play in a corner.
And, not to belabor the point, but if Constancio’s data shows that AJ is even more of a pull hitter than Wlad, does that change your evaluation of how he’s likely to do in a half/third-of a season call-up?
I knew AJ was a pull hitter when I projected he’d hit .270/.330/.450 the rest of the year if they called him up now. Safeco will take a bite out of his numbers, but with his speed, he’ll still be able to get a good amount of doubles in the gaps. And really, the reason I want him in Seattle is his glove. I think Wlad and AJ would both put up similar-ish numbers in the majors right now, and both would be .750 to .800 OPS guys who could struggle in Safeco. But Jones has the glove that Wlad doesn’t have, which is the dealbreaker.
So would you say the idea that Reed is a good defensive CF is just a canard?
Reed is basically useful as a platoon partner tweener OF, ala Todd Hollandsworth.
I would go on a rant on why the M’s have given up too early on Reed for the likes of Vidro and Guillen, but it’s supposed to be a positive blog entry…
I’ve said for a few years that I think Safeco makes LF/CF types look better than they are, because the air in left center causes that ball to just hang. So, a lot of balls that are smoked off the bat don’t get down, and people give credit to the outfielder for covering a lot of ground.
Plus, Reed dove a lot, and he didn’t hit, which always helps your defensive reputation.
If you think Reed’s defense is overated, than you pretty much disagree with every scout in the major leagues. You must know something they don’t.
How many major league scouts do you talk to?
He’s not nearly as highly regarded defensively as you think he is.
Actually…quite a few to be honest. I know a few people in some different organizations that love his “D”.
Why on Earth would anyone want to trade Jeff Clement right now? His value is sandbagged by hitting nothing all year last year, but he’s all of the sudden turned the corner to the point where he looks like he’ll be a valuable LH power source even if he doesn’t stay behind the plate. If your going to trade a prospect, trade the one who is out of options. Not one who could be a top 20 prospect by this off-season.
Tell them to make us an offer, then.
I have, but I just dont have that kind of pull. Thats a good one though. You just made me laugh.
I took a look at Fangraphs and compared Ellison and Reed. I think that they are actually the same person. The numbers track each other almost perfectly. Has anyone seen them at the same time? Perhaps Reelison runs down to Tacoma to get some work in.
Maybe we can get Shin-Soo Choo back.
On the strength of the vote of confidence in some of our players in this blog entry, I finally broke down and voted my 25 votes for the All-Stars. Mind you, I didn’t vote for Mariners at EVERY position…
Any of the rest of you who are motivated, go over to MLB.com and register (and don’t forget to UNcheck those little boxes that will fill up your in e-box with junk mail every time you vote). You got less than 4 hours.
If I see Jeremy Reed in a Mariner uniform again when we are anywhere better than ten games under .500, I will turn the tv off and go watch my Refuse to Lose video.
I have my doubts about your assessment on Reed reality3, but here’s to hoping you’re right and there are teams out there that thirst for his services come the deadline.
It’s interesting to look at his offensive splits this year in Tacoma, BTW:
HOME: 147AB, .231/.275/.293
AWAY: 166AB, .325/.388/.542
‘Wonder what’s going on there?
This is a general question. Why isn’t there more general love for the memory of John Olerud?
I don’t know. I think, like Jay Buhner and Bret Boone, he’s not too far shy of a Hall of Fame career (though he does fall short).
This is a general question. Why isn’t there more general love for the memory of John Olerud?
I dunno. Maybe because he had his best season with Toronto, and his second best season with the Mets?
Ralph was making another duck joke in 139. Right?
Yeah, I know, but is Ellison a better option overall as backup outfielder?
I dunno…during his first three seasons as an M, he averaged 105 RC while playing gold-glove caliber defense (he won 3 as an M)……
I am confused by 153. Olerud was very popular here. He was well liked by team, fans, media, and management. I’ve never heard anyone run his memory down, unless acknowledging that he was in severe decline by the end counts as running him down. If anything, people think he was better than he was, especially defensively, where people thought he was the second coming of Keith Hernandez.
153: I have love for the memory of John Olerud.
Also, general comment/question about Sexson’s defense: Am I correct in observing that he is fine at catching throws to 1B, but what makes him a poor defender is limited range and general fielding ability?
And on Reed: if he takes Ellison’s place, he only gets to play rarely. If he stays in Tacoma, he continues to be a regular. While his being a regular Mariners outfielder would be best, being a regular Rainiers outfielder is better than being a backup Mariners outfielder.
(Better for development, that is.)
As for Reed, I think one would rather be a back-up in the majors than a regular in the minors. Its about the $$$$$.
I was talking about what’s good for the team. You know, the subject of this blog…
well, if Buehrle does come off the table, the likely trade-bait pitchers out there are guys like Jose Contreras, Javy Vazquez, Matt Morris, Steve Trachsel …
I’m glad someone got my duck joke. I was almost forced to come up with a worse pun about the color teal.
I knew Ichiro! was having a good year — even including his usual bad April — but I hadn’t realized how good until I started looking through the numbers. As Dave said, he’s outperforming his 2001 MVP year, and doing so while playing a more important defensive position; if you look at B-R’s OPS+ (adjusted for park and league, normalized to 100), he’s actually doing way better so far this year:
YEAR… OPS+
2001… …127
2002… …125
2003… …110
2004… …135
2005… …109
2006… …109
2007… …140
By OPS+, right now he looks to be the best offensive CF in baseball.
What’s really amazing is how hot he’s been for the past month. For his career, he’s a .333 hitter with a .819 OPS. On May 24th, the last game of the series in Tampa, that’s exactly where he was for 2007. That also happened to be his 1000th game here in the US. He hit a homer in that game, and then hit another the next day in Kansas City, and he’s been at or above his career line ever since. And something that got missed in the gloom of all those lost games against the NL central: Ichiro! absolutely caught fire. He was back to .333 and .833 in that first game in Chicago, but he’s been climbing ever since: he’s currently 30 points above his career average and 66 points above his career OPS. By plain old OPS he’s in fifth place among AL outfielders, and third among CFs (behind Curtis Granderson at .910 and Torii Hunter at .894; Vlad and Magglio are the corner guys at the top). But they all hit in the heart of their batting orders.
An .885 OPS for a lead-off hitter playing above average defense at a premium defensive position? Yes, please, can I have another?
Playing half his games in Safeco, no less.
Wlad is striking out less than and walking more than AJ, so his bat is pretty intriguing.
With quasi-major leaguer Reed in the OF, does this make it the best Rainier’s outfield ever?
Please, Lord, don’t let Ichiro leave. I swear to go to at least two or three games next year if he stays.
Wonder what’s going on there?
Opposite of most of the other parks in the PCL, Tacoma is a pitcher’s park.
Ichiro is definately having an awesome year.
By that I mean “totally awesome”.
Playing half his games in Safeco, no less.
Yeah, that’s why I listed his OPS+, which is park adjusted, and why according to that measure he’s the most valuable CF in baseball (and one of the top handful among all outfielders).
OK, more Ichi-awesomeness: If Ichrio! was a DH, he’d be the 3rd best in baseball by OPS, behind just Ortiz and Sheffield and ahead of Hafner and the rest. You can’t get a better raw mapping of stat to position than OPS to DH, and would make Ichiro! the third most valuable guy doing something where his defensive skills aren’t even counted at all.
(And before anybody asks, yes, Vidro would be near the bottom among regular DHs, ahead of just Huff and Damon… yes, Damon: the Yankees’ “Bernie Williams Memorial CF-to-DH Conversion System” continues…)
yes, 3rd compared to other DHs…. thats not a very useful comparison.
Sure. It’s still amusing.
Today we think about a playoff race in September! Next week? Well, who knows?
In case we do get in a pennant race though. . .how ’bout this for a lineup?
Ichiro—L (RF)
Lopez—-R (2B)
Griffey–L (LF)
Johjima–R (C)
Ibanez—L (DH)
Beltre—R (3B)
Vidro-S/Broussard-L/some mystery guy-L/S (1B)
Jones—-R (CF)
YuBet—-R (SS)
Ok, ok, I get it. I shouldn’t be posting prospective lineups and such and The Kid won’t be coming back for a while (maybe), but hey, it’s good to dream right?
That’s what makes this kind of season fun after 3 years of nothingness and irrevelancy. The irony of it all though, Bill Bavasi probably still should be fired based on the signings he’s had the last few years and the way he assembled his pitching staff this year. Even if we made the postseason as a division winner or wild card I think there still would be that chance that Bavasi gets canned.
thank goodness. Jim Caple exhorts us all to lift up the poor benighted team that is The Yankees.
Tom, why are you putting the best defensive outfielder (Ichiro) in the easiest defensive position?
Leave him in CF and have Jones play left (the next hardest position to play in Safeco).
Jones was moved to RF last night; they’re obviously trying to get him some work in the corners. Wlad was in center. It’ll be interesting to see if they keep this alignment for a week or so.
Wlad played center once earlier in the year, too. The organization likes to move guys around and get them experience at several different positions. It’s probably just a one night thing.
Wow, Tom: rosterbation and Griffey speculation all in the same comment. You just need a lover-scorned-esque dig at ARod to hit the trifecta. And hey, add a plea for the return of Ryan Anderson and you’ve got the complete post.
hank goodness. Jim Caple exhorts us all to lift up the poor benighted team that is The Yankees.
We need Sally Struthers on a late night infomercial: “Won’t you please help the Yankees?”
174. I know your point was to emphasize Ichiro’s awesomnity, but it’s a good thing Ichiro’s mobile and facile enough to use in the field so he doesn’t have to be a DH.
I think OPS works if you’re measuring DHs who are power hitters, and Vidro never really has been such. You don’t sign a Vidro to hit 20 home runs and knock in 80 runs now. The fact is he has the second-best OBP on the club among regulars, behind only Ichiro, the has the third-most walks on the team (and only 22 strikeouts) and he has 80 hits, again, second-most behind Ichiro.
I know – only 9 of Vidro’s hits have been for even one extra base, he doesn’t run well and he has grounded out into too many GIDP.
His hits might be passed off as “empty at-bats,” but does it really matter HOW you get on base but THAT you get on base?
Richie Sexson and his 15 home runs and 46 (and 57K) has his place, along with Beltre (10, 31, 38)… but you need someone who can handle the bat (get base hits and draw walks, and occasionally lay down a bunt, which he’s done a team-leading times), and that’s what Vidro’s brought.
For the cynics who look for opportunities to chide and those who rely only on numbers, I’m sure this is a laughable position, but these raw stats tell me enough that Vidro doesn’t deserve the derision he’s afforded here and deserves some of the credit.
And, 177, have you arbitrarily replaced Sexson with Johjima as your cleanup hitter? And are you willing to put Jones, who’s still learning to play the outfield (as this is his second year out there), in CF for your playoff team?
If you can Bavasi, even if this team goes to the playoffs, who do you hire as GM?
Honestly, the whole defending Vidro thing is impossible. He sucks, and you need to admit he sucks. This team has the fewest strikeouts in the majors – they certainly don’t need a DH who has “bat control”.
Vidro’s terrible. Just admit it and move on.
facile?
I posted this in an earlier thread but I doubt anyone is going to read it (four days ago) so I’ll repost. I was the guy who ragged on all the “experts” and the people who were ready to throw Weaver under the bus and run over him several times a month ago (i admit I was almost there, though). Here’s my post, with a legitimate question at the end. Thanks for your patience:
I’m no expert either. I’m Just a baseball fan. I don’t spend time looking at sites that give actual percentage for a team to win DURING the game. And I don’t look at sites that peg the Ms playoff chances day by day. I’m too busy watching/listening to the games and reading this blog.
DOn’t get me wrong, I love this blog. I bought Derek’s book. I learn something all the time. I’m just a smart-ass Don’t pay me any mind.
While I admitting my ignorance, where can I find a handy llist for the all the acronyms used freely here. I know what WHIP is, I know what OPS is, but beyond that I’m generall sitting here going… “???”
thanking you in advance.
if anyone wants to mail me offline my address is dhirning@comcast.net.
Go Ms,
D.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
I think OPS works if you’re measuring DHs who are power hitters, and Vidro never really has been such. You don’t sign a Vidro to hit 20 home runs and knock in 80 runs now. The fact is he has the second-best OBP on the club among regulars, behind only Ichiro, the has the third-most walks on the team (and only 22 strikeouts) and he has 80 hits, again, second-most behind Ichiro.
I can cherry pick things that make anyone look good if you give me enough of them. Willie Bloomquist has a GREAT stolen base percentage and plays a lot of positions, so he’s a good player, right?
AL designated hitters have a composite stat line of .263/.355/.442. Vidro’s is .295/.355/.362. This makes him average among DHs at getting on base, very bad for hitting for power… and Seattle’s DH’s lead the league in GIDP (13)- ALL of them Vidro’s.
There is no reasonable standard where you can say he’s a GOOD DH. The best you can say is that Vidro hasn’t been a complete trainwreck like KC’s DH’s (.237/.295/.368) or Minnesota’s ( .241/.323/.333), but “Only 10 or 11 teams have better DH performance in the league, and Vidro’s not SUPPOSED to be a good hitter” is not a good argument.
I was the guy who ragged on all the “experts” and the people who were ready to throw Weaver under the bus and run over him several times a month ago (i admit I was almost there, though).
I don’t think Weaver’s recent performance is all that, either. If you think it is, than I’ll point out that Joel Pineiro was sporting a 3.72 ERA on May 11th, 2006. He’s keeping more teams off balance by mixing his stuff better, but it hasn’t really improved, and while Weaver wasn’t really as bad as he looked in April and May, he’s not as good as a 2-0, 1.82 ERA June is telling us, either. His success is predicated on not having given up a HR in June. That’s just not going to be sustainable.
Grizz (#170) – Yeah, I considered that. But it seems so extreme for Reed. He’s about 100 points lower in AVG and OBP, and about 150 lower in SLG. In a similar number of AB, Jones is roughly -40/-60/-130, and Wlad actually seems to like Tacoma *better* at roughly +10/+30/-40.
Seems weird it affects Reed so dramatically. He’s essentially a different player at home. At least on offense.
Could the situation w/ Reed be similar to Cameron or ‘05 Beltre at Safeco, where it becomes mental and not just park factors? I haven’t looked at Reeds splits, or have I seen him play this year.
In other “are you kidding me?” news, ESPN.com has the Mariners ranked #9 in their Power Rankings, just ahead of the Brewers.
Yeah, I know, it’s a little like looking at Rumor Central there, but the last time I looked at their power rankings, the M’s were down around #25. Sheesh.
Don’t start bragging yet, anyone. I’d just as soon have the Mariners lie in the weeds and sneak up on some of these other teams, as long as they’re capable.