Game 64, Mariners at Astros
Hernandez vs Rodriguez, 5:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
There’s no way to say this nicely – the Astros stink. They have a struggling Lance Berkman, an overrated Carlos Lee, a good rookie in Hunter Pence, and lots of bad players. They can’t really score, they can’t really pitch, and they can’t really field. But other than that, they’re awesome.
However, tonight’s starter for Houston is Wandy Rodriguez, who is actually pretty good. He’s shaved his walk rate by 40% while striking out two more batters per game than last year, and if he could figure out how to leave runners on base, he’d be a borderline all-star. Thankfully for the Mariners, he’s a lefty, so the M’s have a chance to hit him. However, he’s a good pitcher, so no whining about getting shut down by a no-name if this turns into a low scoring game.
And Felix, man, I don’t know how much more I can write about you. Just pitch like King Felix please.
Random Notes
Haven’t done of these in a while. So, on to the blurbs.
Daily Adam Jones Update: 3 for 5, double, steal. He still belongs in the Mariners line-up.
The M’s recalled Ryan Feierabend from Tacoma after the game last night, shipping Jake Woods back to Triple-A. Feierabend was already with the team in Chicago, as they flew him out Wednesday in case Miguel Batista wasn’t able to go deep in the game. Feierabend is expected to work out of the bullpen until the team finally throws Jeff Weaver overboard.
And, seriously, Jeff Weaver’s still not good. Results based analysis will tell you he calmed down and settled into a groove. It’s not true, though – we’ve talked about Weaver’s batting average on balls in play eventually regressing to the mean, and that’s what happened in innings 2 through 6. When you pitch to contact, sometimes guys will drive the ball and sometimes they won’t. It has a lot more to do with the hitter than the pitcher.
In case we weren’t sure, J.J. Putz has cemented himself as the best reliever in baseball. And, to boot, George Sherrill now has a great argument as the best LH reliever in baseball. Those two are lights out at the end of ballgames. Brandon Morrow, not so much.
The M’s should have already been looking forward to facing a bad Astros team this weekend. Well, that bad Astros team just got even worse – defensive wizard Adam Everett collided with Carlos Lee and predictably got the worst of it, breaking his leg, and is now on the DL for the next two months. Taking the best defensive player in the game off a team that was already going nowhere makes this an even easier series for the M’s. They really should take 2 of 3, and a sweep wouldn’t even be much of a challenge. Houston’s a bad baseball team.
I mentioned that Dan Fox was doing some really cool work with the advanced gameday data from MLB.com, and that he was going to have some great stuff about Felix shortly. The article I was referring to was published at BP yesterday. If you’re a subscriber, it’s required reading. If you’re not, here’s the basic summary – everything we’ve said in the Charting Felix series is demonstrably true, and Felix’s velocity and movement is significantly down from his opening day start against the A’s. The pitches just aren’t breaking like they did in his first start, and he’s not throwing as hard. It’s something to be concerned about, honestly.
Game 63, Mariners at Cubs
An early 11:20 start. No M’s TV broadcast. WGN’s broadcasting it, though, if you have access to their feed. Jeff Weaver v Jason Marquis.
Is it best that we don’t have television for this one? I’d rather not watch bad Jeff Weaver. Now, if he’s willing to put up another decent enough chunk of innings, that’d be fine. And I’m interested to see how he’s looking, since the back end of the rotation really needs the help.
Lineups posted when I see ’em.
Mariners
CF-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Willie “The Ignitor” Bloomquist
C-R Burke
(pitcher)
How can a team with both Burke and Bloomquist lost? Also, I like that Sexson’s protected by Betancourt. Pre-season, who’d have thought there’d ever be a lineup turned in like that?
Cubbies
LF-R Soriano
CF-L Pie
1B-R Lee
RF-L Floyd
3B-R DeRosa
2B-L Fontenot
C-B Hill
SS-B Izturis
(pitcher)
Ibanez at DH
In thinking about “how you wedge Jones into the lineup” (see thread below) one of the commonly-mentioned ways is to DH Ibanez and then make Vidro disappear. That wasn’t my solution, but one of the things that’s raised in objection is, as Paul said at Mariner Morsels:
Raul Ibanez also is more comfortable when he’s playing the field, and the potential discomfort he may have could affect his hitting.
Paul doesn’t see these as major risks, but it’s worth addressing.
First, Raul says he prefers to play the field. I don’t think that means much. Bad pitchers want to be starters, or closers. Bloomquist wants to play every day. It’s entirely understandable, but we’ve seen Ibanez DH for the M’s before, and he did just fine.
Second, there’s no evidence that players hit significantly worse or better at DH. We heard similar things about Vidro, but it’s just not there. You can go hunt through those threads if you’re particularly curious, but the short version is that offensive performance isn’t affected by a DH move. What slight decline you do see in some cases is the guy being shifted to DH because of injuries and age.
A player’s preference shouldn’t affect a team’s thinking in a situation like this. If Jones every day in left upgrades the team significantly for the rest of the way, that makes them a better team and more likely to win the division/get into the playoffs/be more competitive when they get there.
Adam Jones Is Still Ready For The Majors
Coming into today’s game, Adam Jones was hitting .317/.392/.581, in large part due to his surge since the calendar changed to May and he got over the wrist problem that sapped his power in April. Tonight, he continued his torrid June pace, going 4 for 5 with another home run.
Since May 1st, Jones is 56 for 163 with 14 home runs. That’s a .344/.420/.700 line.
.344/.420/.700. 27 of his 56 hits have gone for extra bases. Did I mention that he’s turned himself into a pretty good defensive outfielder? And he can run? Or that he has the best outfield arm in the organization?
He’s better than Raul Ibanez, Jose Guillen, Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson, and Ben Broussard. Better than all of them. If the Mariners are serious about making the playoffs, Adam Jones should be on the 25 man roster. Getting him into the line-up isn’t going to be easy for Mike Hargrove, but he’s not paid to do an easy job, and the Mariners can’t let the 4th or 5th best hitter in the organization sit in Tacoma for much longer.
It’s time for Adam Jones to be a Seattle Mariner.
Game 62, Mariners at Cubs
After last night’s game, the M’s could really use an innings-eating performance from… Miguel Batista? Uh oh. Making this even worse: tomorrow is Jeff Weaver, also not known for working deep into games. It makes me wish for Ryan Franklin who, for all his faults, could always be sent out to the mound in these situations with instructions to go nine innings and could pull it off: pacing himself, giving up runs as he went but taking one for the team.
Anyway, yeah — Batista v Marshall.
John Hickey’s blog entry over at the PI notes that the M’s didn’t make a roster move for reinforcements and brings up the specter of Julio Mateo, pitching in Tacoma.
So the bullpen:
Jason Davis (threw last night)
Sean Green (threw last night, and the 11th)
Brandon Morrow (threw last night, and the 11th)
Eric O’Flaherty (threw last night, and the 11th)
JJ Putz (threw last night, and the 10th)
Jake Woods (ding ding ding ding ding!)
I’m betting one of the “keys to the game” will be the need to go deep in the game and save the bullpen.
Thank you for not managing
We’ve carped about Hargrove’s instruction of Lopez for — well, it seems like years. I still don’t understand why he ever got it into his head that Lopez would be better off grounding out weakly to the right side every time he came up to bat, but I don’t know anyone who followed the whole saga without seeing their blood pressure tick upwards with each out.
We ranted about this repeatedly here — a random sample from this pre-season Q&A:
Q2: How do you see the next couple years for Jose Lopez panning out?
There are two things that happen. Either he keeps grounding out to the right side to Hargrove’s applause and he sucks, or either he rebels or they let Lopez be Lopez and he hits really well. If you get the latter, he’ll be a pretty good player.
Jose Lopez, hitting for some power, is a really good piece of the team. He gets his power when he really turns on a pitch, which is not that frequent – but it’s never when he’s concentrating on grounding out to the right side.
I don’t know if Hargrove’s been distracted, or if at ground-out 100 he patted Lopez on the shoulder, told him he’d proven himself and moved on to other tasks. I don’t really care. Because it’s meant that Lopez, once again yanking balls over the fence and off the walls in left, is a good second baseman. Offensively, he’s in with the second tier of AL second basemen (Hill/Castillo/Pedroia). He’s not Upton, but then he’s not carrying Upton’s glove. Which is good.
At home, all three of his home runs are dead pull, two of his four doubles are in almost the same location (the other two are down the left and down right field lines). And it’s the same story on the road: almost all his extra-base hits are pull. His singles are better-spread out, and that’s always been the case. It’s interesting that the way he’s doing it aren’t much different – his ground ball/fly ball rate’s about the same, he’s not hitting any more line drives than we’ve seen the last few years. But he’s getting more for his contact dollar at the same time the strikeouts are down and he’s walking more.
Even if he’s been a little lucky on the home runs, this is a far, far more effective version of Lopez, one that plays to his natural ability: Lopez has never been a guy who walks 10% of the time, but he’s always had good power potential pulling the ball (, and a second baseman who can field his position well and hit 30 doubles and 15-20 home runs is quite valuable. Certainly more than a weak-hitting ground-out machine who happens to be “going the other way”.
Having Lopez contribute to the team, rather than just make outs, has been a big part of the team’s improved offense. I’ve been hoping that I’d see some quote explaining what’s going on Hargrove or Lopez to look at and test, but I haven’t seen it. So whatever it is – whether it’s negligence or preoccupation or if the team made a conscious decision to let Lopez be Lopez – I’m glad to see it.
Crazy
We deal in probabilities a lot here on the blog. Sometimes, a game could care less about probability. Jarrod Washburn walks 5 guys in 6 innings and only gives up 2 runs, he he gets an RBI single. Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie destroy pitches for 300 foot flyouts. Carloz Zambrano pinch-hits. Jose Vidro almost goes yard, then Turbo actually scores from second on a single by Willie Bloomquist while not running hard all the way or sliding into home plate. Alfonso Soriano draws a four pitch walk.
This game was a middle-finger to probability. It was crazy, it made no sense, and it was awesome.
To borrow from Lookout Landing, Putz wooooooooooo.
Game 61, Mariners at Cubs
Washburn vs Hill, 5:05 pm.
M’s go with their standard non-DH line-up, which includes Lopez hitting 2nd and Turbo banished to the bench.
Hill’s a good arm, but he’s not as good as his ERA would have you believe. Plus, he’s a lefty. And the wind is blowing out. Expect run scoring.
One Run Games
The Mariners just finished up winning their fourth game in a row, all over quality opponents, on the road. They’ve made up some ground in both the division and wild card races, and have pushed themselves to eight games over .500. They’ve done it with the awesomeness of J.J. Putz, a resurgence from Raul Ibanez, and a bunch of clutch hits.
If you hadn’t noticed, all four wins have come by one run: 6-5, 6-5, 4-3, and 8-7. The Mariners are now 10-7 in one run games after going 20-24 in such contests last year. That kind of swing will make a big difference on the team’s final record.
Because one run games are often decided by a good bounce here or a bad call there, one run W/L records are often disconnected from the actual ability of a team. The Washington Nationals are probably the worst team in baseball this year, getting outscored by over a run per game, but they’re 12-9 in one run games. The Indians, Angels, and Red Sox look like the three best teams in the AL to date, and as a group, they’re a combined 27-21 in one run games. Last year, the Yankees won 97 games, but were just 24-22 in one run affairs.
Basically, winning one run games is awesome, and doing so over teams like San Diego and Cleveland is even better. Any win against those teams is a good thing, and there’s no end-of-season adjustment for run differential when they’re handing out playoff spots. So, yea, there are all kinds of reasons to have enjoyed this four game stretch, with some weaker opponents coming up, this has the potential to turn into a nice long winning streak.
But, if you see somebody writing about how these last four games have proven the character, heart, and guts of this team, just ignore them. Just like last year’s team wasn’t a bunch of selfish jerks for struggling in one run games, this team isn’t a bunch of heroic lionhearts for winning them. I’m all for winning as many one run games as possible, but I’m not interested in assigning character representations to these guys based on how they do in games that are decided by such small margins.
I’d rather deal with the reality of on the field performance and leave the clubhouse leadership/chemistry ramblings to others. And, the reality is, this team is mashing the ball lately. After last night’s game, the team is now hitting .318/.374/.443 in June, averaging 6.5 runs per game, and getting production up and down the order. As mentioned, Ibanez has given those of us who thought he was done the finger, hitting .364/.417/.682 in the last 10 games, while Jose Lopez and Kenji Johjima continue to make a push for inclusion in the all-star game. Yuniesky Betancourt is on another one of his singles-fest hot streaks, while Jose Guillen just keeps being a solid hitter and Ichiro continues to be Ichiro! Sexson and Vidro continue to struggle, but that’s not new, and the rest of the team is making up for their out-making ways.
When the M’s built this line-up, they pointed to the depth of the offense being a key point, and in that sense, it’s paid off. The M’s have gotten more production from their 7-8-9 guys than any other team in baseball, and it’s helped offset the fact that their 2-3-4 guys have been pretty horrible.
The M’s still have the kind of offense that goes in streaks, and I’m sure we’ll be railing about their frustrating approach as some no name A-ball pitcher shuts them down with an 83 MPH fastball later this year, but for now, it’s fun rooting for a team that can score runs in bunches.