Philippe Aumont
With the 11th pick in the first round pick, the M’s selected Philipee Aumont, an 18-year-old 6’7 RHP from Quebec. Here’s a video of Aumont from the MLB Scouting Bureau, and there’s a brief scouting report on him from the MLB.com draft tracker page.
He throws a 90-94 MPH fastball that has popped 96 at times, but unlike most prep pitchers, he already has a feel for the two-seam fastball and throws it with heavy sink. Pitching from a downward plane and pounding the bottom half of the strike zone, he’s got all the makings of being an extreme groundball pitcher, and you know how I love groundball pitchers. He also throws a slider and has toyed with a change-up, but both pitches are very raw and he doesn’t command either one particularly well. However, the slider has flashed good movement at times and has the potential to become an out-pitch with more work.
Aumont is extremely inexperienced, as he didn’t have a high school team to pitch for in Quebec. He traveled to showcases in the U.S. to pitch in front of scouts, and the M’s made sure to put a pair of eyes on him everytime they could. They saw Aumont more than any other team, logging tens of thousands of miles to watch him pitch at different events. In the end, they all fell in love. He was rated as the top prep pitching prospect on their board, even ahead of consensus #1 arm Rick Porcello. The team believes he has more upside than any pitcher in the draft due to his projectable frame and feel for the sinker at such a young age.
The popular comparison in recent weeks has been Kevin Brown, though that’s obviously a best case scenario, and putting those kind of expectations on any 18-year-old kid is unfair. However, as a perfect world comparison, it has some merit. That’s the kind of pitcher the M’s would love to see Aumont develop into. By request, here’s three potential career paths for Aumont (ignoring the injury and flameout possibility, which is there for every pitcher), based on his skillset and the careers of similar types of pitchers in the past:
Low End Upside: Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis
Middle Upside: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny
High Upside: Kevin Brown, Chris Carpenter
If you can’t tell, I love this pick. This is the guy I wanted all along, so if my opinion is worth anything (and that’s obviously up to you), then there’s reason for optimism. It was a stretch that he’d fall to #11, but when he did, the M’s had to abandon their pick-for-now philosophy and take the best arm on the board, and that was clearly Philippe Aumont. Welcome to Seattle, kid. We’re glad to have you.
Live Draft Coverage
Okay, here’s a new thread for real time reactions to the draft picks. We have a few requests.
Please do not hit refresh constantly in order to find out who got picked. The server can’t handle it. MLB.com and Baseball America both have draft trackers that will update as the picks get made. Hit refresh on those bandwidth monsters.
Also, please realize that the server is taxed the most when everyone rushes to comment all at once. When 300 people all try to add their light to the growing firmament of discussion while 20,000 others are hitting refresh, we go offline. So, if you’re going to add a comment, have it be meaningful. Try to refrain from posting things like “WHAT?” or “YAY!”. They don’t really add to the discussion, and there’s a good chance you’ll help nuke the blog.
Edit: Comments have been turned off. Seriously, stop hitting refresh. I’ll provide commentary on the M’s pick in the post, turn comments back on afterwards.
So far, this has gone about as well as the M’s could have hoped – with Aumont and Dominguez both available, the M’s college arm fetish is going to be tested.
Hallelujah – Welcome to Seattle, Philippe Aumont. I’ve said for a week now that he was the guy I wanted. For the first time in years, the Mariners take the guy I like. Yipee!
Okay, comments are back on. Aumont now has his own post above.
M’s Draft Board
Okay, today’s the day. Based on conversations with people inside and out of the organization, this is what I believe the M’s draft board looks like heading into the first round. The order isn’t as important as the names themselves, as there’s several spots (#7 and #8) where I basically just had to pick one, because both Aumont and Schmidt have their supporters within the organization. However, I’d be stunned if the pick wasn’t one of these 11 eleven guys.
1. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
3. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS
5. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
6. Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
7. Philipee Aumont, RHP, Quebec – No High School
8. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS
10. Beau Mills, 1B/DH, Lewis-Clark State
11. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS Arkansas
Notably absent are Scott Boras’ three “out of the box” prospects. The Mariners won’t consider drafting Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, or Matt Harvey, and they’re rooting like crazy for all three to go in the top ten. The problem, however, is that signability questions about the trio are threatening to push all three out of the top half of the first round, as no team is as of yet giving indications that they are willing to pay Boras’ over-slot premium for these guys.
That creates some problems for the M’s, because it means that the teams picking ahead of them are going to be picking guys off who, on talent, should be available at #11. Philppe Aumont, for instance, is a guy the M’s would have a really hard time passing over, even with their strong desire to go with a college arm who can get to the majors quickly. However, with Aumont being the easiest sign in the first round, he could very well end up going in the top 5, and it will be an upset if he slides to #11.
The same goes with Daniel Moskos, who we talked about on Tuesday. It sounds like San Francisco won’t let Moskos get past them at #10.
If the draft breaks out as expected, the out of the box guys will slide past the Mariners, and the guys at the top of their board will be picked off one by one before they are on the clock.
So, at this point, the likely selection is Arkansas LHP Nick Schmidt. If you like Jarrod Washburn, you’ll like Schmidt. 88-92 with a four seam fastball, above average change-up, mediocre curveball, succeeds with command, lacks an outpitch, very little upside, and projects as a #5 starter in the majors. A few days ago, I called him a left-handed Joe Blanton. That was probably too generous, in retrospect, as Blanton’s stuff is a tick better across the board than Schmidt’s.
In his favor, Schmidt has been durable, knows how to pitch, and isn’t that far away from the majors. The M’s would likely bring him to spring training next year and let him compete for a rotation spot, and he’d replace Horacio Ramirez as the back-end starter whose reasons for optimism are his team’s home park and defense.
Schmidt’s not a lock to be the pick – the M’s are hopeful that Ross Detwiler or Josh Vitters will slide because of their agents requests for above slot money, but both are considered far more signable than the Boras trio, and it’s very unlikely that either gets out of the top ten. The M’s also really like Matt Dominguez, and if he’s around at #11, it will make the pick more interesting, at least, as he some big fans in the organization. And, there’s still Casey Weathers, the closer from Vanderbilt who has the velocity and slider to be effective in the majors this year.
However, if you put a gun to my head, I’m saying that Nick Schmidt is the guy the M’s go with. Aumont, Moskos, and Dominguez could be selected if they end up at #11, or they could go with the high power reliever over the back end starter if Weathers is there. But you can forget about pretty much anyone else. The M’s aren’t going to take Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey, and most of the other names bandied about aren’t as high on the M’s board as the guys we’ve covered.
We’ll find out for sure in a few hours. Personally, I’m rooting for Philippe Aumont, a 6’7 groundball machine with all kinds of projection, but I don’t think the M’s will have the chance to call his name out. In the end, it’s probably going to be a low risk, low reward college pitcher.
Yipee.
Morning Edit: As things begin to shake out, we’re getting a better idea of what’s going to happen. With KC settling on Josh Vitters, the likelyhood of the M’s getting a chance at HS 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez have gotten significantly better. They like Dominguez a lot as an athletic third baseman with a good bat and great glove, and if Moskos isn’t there, the M’s may go offense.
Afternoon Edit: Jim Callis is now reporting that the Royals have flip-flopped, and are going to take Mike Moustakas over Josh Vitters at #2. Vitters is basically a lock to go to the Cubs at #3, however, which then leaves Dominguez as the option for anyone looking for a HS 3rd baseman in the 4-10 range. Weathers just became a lot more likely pick. Nuts.
Game 56, Orioles at Mariners
Cabrera vs Washburn, 1:35 pm.
Daniel Cabrera struggles to throw strikes, but his stuff is nasty when he keeps it in the zone. The Mariners hitters will go out of the zone to swing at anything they can reach. Not a particularly good matchup for the M’s. Thank God for the famed Orioles bullpen.
Another day with no Beltre, and Kenji gets the day-off as well. M’s go for the sweep, which would put them 6 games over .500 for the first time since 1843.
Game 55, Orioles at Mariners
Burres v Baek. Two guys no one really thought would be in the starting rotation, for one reason or another, for long if they were in it at all – Burres was thought to be the second lefty in the pen if he was lucky, Baek was blocked by Weaver and other delicious signings – but here they are.
Felix, redux
We’ve beaten this point to death here on the blog since my Charting Felix series last year, but I just want to point this out again.
Hitters against Felix, pitches 1-25: .364/.396/.614, 7 XBH, 1.010 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 26-50: .295/.380/.341, 2 XBH, .721 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 51-75: .237/.310/.316, 3 XBH, .626 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 76-100: .265/.324/.471, 4 XBH, .795 OPS
Attention Rafael Chaves – for the love of God, please stop having Felix establish the fastball in the first inning by throwing 92-97 MPH heaters on every single pitch to the first 4 to 5 batters of the game.
The scouting report is out. Teams are aggressively attacking the fastballs that everyone on earth knows are coming early in the game, and they’re beating the tar out of them. Just consider a social experiment and establish the change-up in the first inning in San Diego, just to see how that works out for you.
Please.
Draft Rumblings
We’re now two days away from the MLB amateur draft. This is about the time when teams start getting a pretty good idea of who is going where ahead of them and solidifying the organization’s opinions on who to select. Consequently, this is when better information about who is going where starts to leak out, so even though the Mariners pick 11th, we’re starting to get some reliable rumblings on what they’re expected to do.
Most everyone in baseball believes the Mariners are going to select a pitcher. They’ve followed some hitters, notably Beau Mills of Lewis and Clark State in Idaho, but in the end, they’re almost certainly going to take a pitcher. The pervailing consensus is that the organization is also heavily leaning towards taking a college arm, as they want someone who can get to the majors very quickly. Much like with Brandon Morrow last year, they’re hoping to draft a kid who can spend a few months, at most, in the minor leagues. The team continues to be in win-now mode, and that is going to spill over to the first pick in this year’s draft.
The problem, however, is that this is a pretty lousy draft for college pitching. David Price and Ross Detwiler are the two top arms coming out of NCAA schools, and there’s essentially no chance that either one is there for the M’s at #11. Price is going #1 to Tampa, and Detwiler is expected to go in the 3-8 range, and it’s nearly impossible to see him getting past Arizona at #9.
So, that leaves the Mariners to set their sights on Daniel Moskos, a 6’0 lefty from Clemson who has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen in his college career. He was a reliever as a freshman, the Tigers closer as a sophomore, and pitched out of the bullpen for Team USA last summer. He made nine starts for Clemson this spring, but also came out of the bullpen in 17 games, and those nine starts represent the entirity of his experience in the rotation since high school.
I saw Moskos pitch for Team USA last summer, and he’s exactly how the scouting report reads – a max effort lefty with 92-96 MPH velocity on a four seam fastball, a nasty slider that makes him death on lefties, a show-me curveball that isn’t much of a pitch, and a change-up that has enough sink to be useful against right-handers. The main knocks scouts have on him is his unathletic body, as there’s no room for him to add any strength on his frame, and his high effort delivery which puts a good amount of strain on his arm.
When pitching in the rotation for Clemson, Moskos’ velocity was down (as it is with any reliever who moves to the rotation, really), and he was sitting at 88-92. As a reliever, he can get the fastball up to 97 and is much more of a strikeout pitcher. The stuff drops off significantly as a starter, and he’d profile as a #4 or #5 starter if stretched out and placed into a major league rotation.
As a reliever, he’s got the potential to be a quality setup man, not all that different from George Sherrill, honestly. If that sounds like the type of guy you want with the 11th pick in the draft, well, Thursday might be your lucky day. Most signs point to the M’s selecting Moskos if he’s available at #11.
If someone pops Moskos in the top ten (and it’s possible, as the Mariners aren’t the only team looking for quick help on Thursday), then things get a little murky. The M’s want to draft a college arm, but after Price/Detwiler, you’re really stretching to find anyone who belongs to be taken before the 20-30 range. Casey Weathers is a reliever out of Vanderbilt who is going to stay in the bullpen and could get to the majors quickly with his 96 MPH fastball and slider combination. But there’s no chance Weathers moves to the rotation. Beyond Weathers, you’re looking at a guy like Nick Schmidt, who has very little upside and no outpitch. Think a left-handed Joe Blanton.
The talents who should be taken in the 11-15 range are mostly high school pitchers, including 6’7 RHP Philippe Aumont. If the M’s get over their desire to have someone get to the majors quickly, there are some high ceiling arms who could be major league ready starters in 3-4 years. However, all signs point to the organization lacking the patience to develop an 18-year-old pitcher, and the odds are on them selecting someone who they can potentially get to the majors in September.
So, my guess is that Moskos is the pick on Thursday, with Weathers and Schmidt as fall back plans, and Aumont as the longshot.
I’ll put something up again tomorrow and Thursday morning with the latest rumblings.
Game 54, Orioles at Mariners
A game thread that’s on time! Early, even!
7:05. Erik Bedard, who’s been having a pretty sweet year, faces Felix.
Bedard’s numbers, especially his strikeouts, are better than you’d expect, but the interesting thing is that his HR rate is actually a little over what you’d expect – he’s seen almost 12% of his line drives go over fences, which is almost 50% over his career rate. And he’s getting fewer grounders.
I don’t have a good explanation for whether he’s doing something different – I haven’t had a chance to see him this year – but I like going into this game thinking I might see a good pitching matchup.
Interesting lineup for the M’s:
DH-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Bloomquist
CF-R Ellison
Baltimore offers
2B-B Roberts
LF-R Payton
RF-L Markakis
SS-R Tejeda
1B-R Millar
DH-L Huff
3B-R Mora
C-R Hernandez
CF-L Patterson
Happy Felix Day for June 4th
May it be happier than last Felix Day.
The beer thing
If you’re curious – when I had the beer thing running for a couple days (and again very briefly this week) we got 45 beers out of it. Thanks much to the <1% that hit us (and by us, so far I mean “me”) with three dollars to enjoy a refreshing beverage — USSM pledges that your support will be funded directly into the purchase and consumption of suitable beverages for the authors.