Future Forty Updated for July
The monthly Future Forty update has been uploaded to the site. Yes, I know, the date still says 4/30/07 for last update, but you’ll just have to trust me that the new file is online.
This is a pretty big update. Lots of changes stemming from additions, subtractions, promotions, and injuries, as well as getting better scouting info on a good number of players, leading to some revised risk and reward rankings, as well as a few guys bouncing from one category to the other. The draft, obviously, occurred since the last update, and the team’s top two selections – Phillipe Aumont and Matt Mangini – both find their way onto the Future Forty. I’m planning a longer draft review post for later on, so I won’t focus on either of those two, or the other draftees, that much in this post.
Also debuting is 18-year-old RHP Juan Ramirez, who we’ve talked about in the past as the guy you want to see when you take a road trip up to Everett. With Ramirez and Aumont, the M’s have added two more high ceiling pitchers to the low levels of the farm system. Speaking of high ceiling arms, I speculated during last month’s post that I believed Tony Butler was pitching through an injury, and sure enough, he hit the DL a few days later. He’s had a year to forget, battling reduced velocity, “dead arm”, back problems, shoulder pain, and a complete lack of command. We’ll wait to see how the M’s handle him going forward, but it may be in his best interest to just sit out the rest of the season and try to get back on track during the Fall Instructional League.
Also, the Chris Tillman to High Desert experiment has predictably been a disaster. I’m sure the Mariners and their make-prospects-fail philosophy see this as an opportunity for the kid to overcome adversity, but he just has no business in the Cal League. We’ll see how he responds, but I’m still of the opinion that throwing a kid in the pool and making him learn how to swim in order to save his own life is bad parenting, and this is the baseball equivalent of that.
Moving on to happier news, Adam Jones!
Speaking of Tacoma, Wladimir Balentien’s performance in June was probably the most impressive he’s had as a professional. We talked about his sliding scale abilities last year, where he showed he could hit for power and show an improved approach at the plate, but just not at the same time. Well, that carried over to April and May, where he torched the ball early in the season but didn’t walk, then saw his average fall apart as he got more patient in May. In June, for the first time, he finally put the whole package together – high contact rate (for him, anyways), high walk rate, and power. There’s still some work to do, but it appears that he has made The Leap, and he’s on the doorstep of being a bonafide major league player. A scout friend of mine last week talked about how much Balentien reminded him of Magglio Ordonez, and that comparison actually holds up pretty well. As long as he keeps working hard, he looks like he’s going to become a cross between Carlos Lee and Magglio, which is a better player than I ever expected Balentien to turn into. He deserves a lot of credit for his significant improvement this year.
Matt Tuiasasopo’s strikeout rate by month: 15.0%. 19.8%, 26.7%. I think pitchers in the Southern League have made their adjustments. Now it’s time for Tui to make his.
One name we probably haven’t talked about enough is Kameron Mickolio. He was an 18th round pick last summer and is looking like an absolute steal a year later. At 6′9 with long arms, he’s an intimidating presence on the mound, and he can get his fastball up to the plate at 94-96 consistently. He’s mixing in a cut fastball to keep left-handers off balance and, after a rough debut, has settled in to blowing away PCL hitters after his promotion from West Tennessee to Tacoma. Mickolio is basically Brandon Morrow with better command right now. With Morrow proving more and more with every appearance that he simply isn’t a major league pitcher and can’t be counted on in any kind of high leverage situation, the M’s may give Mickolio a serious look before the end of the year. A lot of people are hoping Mark Lowe can come back and give the M’s another devastating right-handed setup man, but if I was going to pick a guy from the organization who could help the bullpen in the second half, it’d be Mickolio. And he was an 18th round pick just 13 months ago. This is why we love Bob Fontaine.
Oh, and I guess I should mention that Michael Saunders will join Wladimir Balentien in playing the outfield for the World Team in the Futures Game next week. I’m still not very impressed with Saunders. He gets high marks for his athleticism, but I don’t think he has the bat to carry himself as a corner outfielder or the glove to play center. He’s only 20, and I’ve been wrong about plenty of guys before, so feel free to keep an eye on him, but I’m just not very excited about his skillset.
As always, feel free to use this thread for any prospect/minor league questions you may have.
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was just reading it…thanks…
A cross between Magglio and C-Lee gets an 8 reward? Does that mean that Jones is a cross between Willy Mays and Ken Griffey Jr?
You touched on the fact that having Wlad and Jones in the OF next year is unlikely and that Balentien is a good trade piece in other threads. Do other GMs not see your scout friend’s comparison (i.e. seems to me that someone with that upside should bring more in trade)?
Sorry, a 7 reward for Wlad….my point is still valid.
In what way do you mean Saunders doesn’t have the glove to play center? His stats would suggest decent speed (8 triples and 22 SB last year, 22 more SB already this year). Is it not likely to hold up as he develops, or is it a mirage for some other reason? Or does he not read balls well, and if so is this something he can improve like Adam Jones has?
I don’t doubt that his bat doesn’t look good enough to start in a corner. Although contrary to the chart, he’s actually in High Desert and not Everett, still 11 HR in the California League is not anything to get excited about if he’s not going to be in center field.
Carlos Lee and (until this year) and Ordonez are not the next step to Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. IF Ordonez can keep this up for a couple years, I’ll rethink that, and I’m sure Dave would too. They’ve both been overrated most of their careers, except Ordonez pulled a monster out of his hat this year. Also they both are bad defenders lowering their value quite a bit.
Can Adam Jones hit/lay off a major league breaking ball?
A cross between Magglio and C-Lee gets a 7 reward?
Yep. Despite Magglio’s awesome first half, he’s been a league average corner outfielder for most of his career. And Carlos Lee is just a tick below that. They’re both decent, unspectacular hitters who don’t play defense.
Does that mean that Jones is a cross between Willy Mays and Ken Griffey Jr?
Uhh, no.
Do other GMs not see your scout friend’s comparison?
It seems like you’re overrating Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee.
In what way do you mean Saunders doesn’t have the glove to play center?
He doesn’t cover enough ground to be an asset in center field.
Can Adam Jones hit/lay off a major league breaking ball?
Lay off, yea. He’s still predominantly a fastball hitter, but he’s gotten a lot better about not getting himself out chasing breaking balls.
Should we be worried about Carlos Triunfel broken thumb? He still looks like he’ll be out for another few weeks at the very least and I’d hate for him to stall this year due to that.
Also, anyone interesting knocking on the door? Jason Churchill mentioned that Edward Paredes was a sleeper candidate in Everett for example.
Why isn’t Ryan Rowland-Smith on the Graduates list?
He doesn’t cover enough ground to be an asset in center field.
Well, okay, I figured that’s what was meant, but on the surface at least it seems like he could. Hence my follow-up questions above. Is it speed, routes, what?
Should we be worried about Carlos Triunfel broken thumb? He still looks like he’ll be out for another few weeks at the very least and I’d hate for him to stall this year due to that.
He’ll be back by the end of the week. He’s playing in Peoria right now. So no.
Why isn’t Ryan Rowland-Smith on the Graduates list?
Because he’s not really much of a prospect.
Is it speed, routes, what?
All of the above.
Also, anyone interesting knocking on the door? Jason Churchill mentioned that Edward Paredes was a sleeper candidate in Everett for example.
Paredes is in the next group of guys who just didn’t make the cut. But, despite his nifty performances so far, there’s just almost no projection on him – he’s basically as good as he’s going to get. His fastball has good sink to it, but coming it at 88-92, it’s not a strikeout pitch. The secondary stuff isn’t very good. He’s a short lefty without any real breaking ball, and while guys like that can have quite a bit of success in the minors (Cesar Jimenez, for instance), they rarely do much against major league hitters.
Any word on Aumont signing?
I was surprised to see Mangini with a 6 reward — I would have thought he had a tick more potential than that. I agree that Morrow needs to go down; any chance, if Bavasi goes, that the new GM sends him back to AA (or wherever) to learn how to pitch?
Dave, in you post, it looks like you were about to write something about Adam Jones. Or is Adam Jones! just good news on it’s own?
Also, you have Felix as a 9 at present. Is that realistic?
So if not Saunders, do we have anybody that projects as having good speed and being a high-average, up-the-middle type player, or is it basically guys destined for corner positions that we hope will develop enough power as they fill out to justify it? I know it’s hard to predict where guys like Triunfel and Martinez will end up, but it seems like they’re unlikely to be shortstops in the end.
I think Felix’s rating sounds right, a guy who can run a FIP under 4 consistently as a starting pitcher is a very valuable player.
Can Adam Jones hit/lay off a major league breaking ball?
I would think, at this point, he has to be in the major leagues to find that out. Not enough pitchers in the PCL who can throw major league curveballs to find out, if we leave him there…
The M’s are crowded in the outfield. The two most promising players near the show are outfielders in Jones and Balentien. What will give? Will anything this year? We’ve talked about Jones in the 2nd half being a no-brainer, but will it, in your opinion?
Also, what are the M’s going to do with Triunfel? I expect the Betancourt experiment will continue for a number of years. If his defense improves and Triunfel continues to come along, what happens in 2009? Do they look to shift somebody to third? Doesn’t Adrian’s contract go through the 2009 season? I know it’s a couple of years away, but the infield seems set for a while, right?
Or is Adam Jones! just good news on it’s own?
What more can I write about the guy? I think we all pretty much know that he’s awesome now.
Also, you have Felix as a 9 at present. Is that realistic?
Stupid pitch selection or not, he’s still a healthy starting pitcher who is running a three to one strikeout to walk rate. And, we all saw Oakland and Boston to start the year – that’s still the kind of pitcher he can be at times.
So if not Saunders, do we have anybody that projects as having good speed and being a high-average, up-the-middle type player, or is it basically guys destined for corner positions that we hope will develop enough power as they fill out to justify it?
Adam Jones. Beyond him, though, yea, it’s mostly corner guys. And your comment made me realize that I forgot to mention that Mario Martinez has been converted from the outfield to the infield.
We’ve talked about Jones in the 2nd half being a no-brainer, but will it, in your opinion?
I think he’ll be up at some point in the next month or so.
Also, what are the M’s going to do with Triunfel?
Move him to third base, probably next year or the year after. He’s not a long term shortstop. He’s going to blow by Tui as the 3B of the future, though.
Are we ready to say Jeremy Reed won’t ever turn into anything in the majors? His season this year in AAA wasn’t really bad but its not really helping his case.
It seems like you’re overrating Magglio Ordonez
Was his defense really that bad, or is it the double plays?
Are we ready to say Jeremy Reed won’t ever turn into anything in the majors?
Yea. At this point, he’s a mediocre fourth outfielder who should only get real playing time for teams who are just trying to save money. He’s a bust.
Was (Magglio’s) defense really that bad, or is it the double plays?
His defense isn’t good, but he’s been a pretty mediocre hitter the last three years, too. He ran an OPS+ the last three years of 113, 113, and 110. For a right fielder, that’s just okay. Obviously, this year, he’s a monster, but this is a fluke.
Isn’t Triunfel one of those situations where you keep him at SS until he fails there? I was under the impression his bat is what’s so special, and at this point the range is a bonus. What I’m getting at, is isn’t it silly to worry about what position he’ll be playing in 2009 or 2010 until we get there? It’s not like he’s an all-glove prospect.
Isn’t Triunfel one of those situations where you keep him at SS until he fails there?
It’s believed in a lot of circles (including the M’s organization) that often times putting a guy at a premium defensive position can actually hold back his offensive development. With Tui, the M’s said they’d leave him at shorstop until it got to the point where it affected his hitting, and they did. I think they’ll move Triunfel to 3rd when he hits a rough patch offensively and they just want him to focus on relaxing and tearing the cover off the ball.
Does Greg Halman have the glove to play center? If not, do you think he will hit enough to have a chance at a MLB career in the corners?
Dave, do you think that Austin Bibens-Dirkx might contribute to the club as a Bradford-esque righty-getter-outer in September? Or is it too early?
So I’m guessing that Reed’s value is so low that we’d get nearly nothing for him in a trade. Reed just kinda has frustrated me. I wasn’t really disapointed that he couldn’t hit for power but I thought he’d at least do well in AVG/OBP. Now he’s just worthless.
I have to say, 1999 to 2003 Magglio Ordonez looks like a pretty damned good player to me. In those five years before his injury years, he batted over .300 and slugged over .500 every year, and had an onbase of at least .370 in four of the five years, while playing a minimum of 153 games a year. That looks like a better-than-average corner outfielder to me, if obviously not the world-beater he has been this year.
Does Greg Halman have the glove to play center? If not, do you think he will hit enough to have a chance at a MLB career in the corners?
Probably not long term. He’s super athletic, but he’s a big kid, and as he fills out, he’s going to get slower. He projects as a corner outfielder down the line.
The question about Halman is simply pitch recognition. The power is legit, and he can really crush a fastball, but he’s shown absolutely no concept of an approach to hitting. This is a learned skill, to some degree, and he’s young enough that he has plenty of time to develop. A few years ago, Wlad had a similar problem, and he’s made huge strides to get where he is now. But it’s really up to Halman – if he puts the work in, he could be a quality player, but he could easily hack his way out of a career.
Dave, do you think that Austin Bibens-Dirkx might contribute to the club as a Bradford-esque righty-getter-outer in September? Or is it too early?
Not this year. He’s behind too many other guys on the depth chart, and he’s still got a ways to go.
[quote]dj:Or is Adam Jones! just good news on it’s own?
dave:What more can I write about the guy? I think we all pretty much know that he’s awesome now.[/quote]
love reading about him!
[quote]dj:Also, you have Felix as a 9 at present. Is that realistic?
dave: Stupid pitch selection or not, he’s still a healthy starting pitcher who is running a three to one strikeout to walk rate. And, we all saw Oakland and Boston to start the year – that’s still the kind of pitcher he can be at times.[/quote]
I’m not questioning the ability. Just the present value. For a 9 I’ve been led to expect something along the lines of Felix starts 1-2, 2007 every time out.
I’m not questioning the
#28, he did that in Chicago, as a RF. If Wlad put up similar (park adjusted) numbers, that’d be great, but ordonez has had 2 years (including this one), that I’d call star level, everything else has been league average (for RF) or maybe a little better.
I’m not questioning the ability. Just the present value. For a 9 I’ve been led to expect something along the lines of Felix starts 1-2, 2007 every time out.
So a 9 to you would be the greatest pitcher that ever lived?
Nobody throws Felix’s 1st and 2nd start every time out.
okay. that was stupid. I’ll shut up now.
#34, hey, it’s cool, we all have dreams.
From 2000 to 2003 Ordonez put up OPS+ of 125, 135, 152, and 142. What’s the standard for right field, and what would you consider star level, Chris?
In 2003 Ordonez was 3rd among all right fielders in VORP. In 2002 he was 4th. I’m not saying you’re wrong about what he is now, I’m just saying it seems to me that he was considerably better than an average right fielder before he got hurt. If not a star, then at a very productive level right below.
If a 9 would throw those kind of games every time out, who would you say is a 10? I’ve never seen one.
From 2000 to 2003 Ordonez put up OPS+ of 125, 135, 152, and 142. What’s the standard for right field, and what would you consider star level?
Magglio Ordonez is playing in his 10th full major league season. He’s been a star in 3 1/2 of those – 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2007. The rest of the time, he’s been basically league average or a notch above.
scraps, I was just looking at the numbers, and I think you’re right, except his defense dragged him down alot. UZR had him for -6 range and -2 arm/dp value from 2000-2003. I think his bat was a legit 2-2.5 win (above average) bat, but his glove was -1 to -1.5 win (including position adjustment) negating much of the value. That said, now that I’m really lookign at it, he was a 2.5 to 3 war player. Borderline star.
Thank Dave, I just assumed the person in question was referring to the four year stretch where Ordonez was a star. If it’s 110 OPS+ Magglio,– um– meh, I see you point.
The scout who compared Wlad to Ordonez meant it as a compliment, and he definitely meant to indicate that Wlad had .300/.370/.550 upside. That doesn’t mean he’ll put that line up every year, but he could have a nice peak run at that level.
I was looking over the organizational stats this morning before this update, and it seemed to me that there were two or three players each on the rosters at Wisconsin, High Desert and West Tennessee who could be deserving of a mid-season promotion — not counting players already promoted, that is.
Any insights into or thoughts about who might get a promotion to a new level in the next month or so, Adam Jones aside?
Okay, I see where you guys are coming from. Dave, I do think one could also say that Ordonez has been a borderline star in three and a half of his last seven years, and that in two of the three and a half non-star years he was injured.
2001: borderline star
2002: star
2003: star
2004: injured
2005: injured
2006: mediocre
2007 thus far: big star
I know you can’t just write off injuries, but I think it’s reasonable to say that when healthy, as he is now, he can be counted on to be a considerably better than average right fielder.
Anyway, I guess this is kind of splitting hairs at this point.
Hi, Dave–
I’m going To Cheney Stadium tonight to watch the Rainiers face a reasonably high-quality lefty (Joe Saunders). Is there anybody who needs work against/is particularly strong against lefties I should keep a special eye on tonight? Anybody who hasn’t been mentioned yet who might be borderline I can watch? Thanks–
Any insights into or thoughts about who might get a promotion to a new level in the next month or so, Adam Jones aside?
Adam Moore should get moved to West Tennessee once the M’s rid themselves of Rene Rivera. I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Magnini ended the year in full-season ball, either with High Desert or maybe West Tennessee, though the latter would require Tui get promoted to Tacoma, and that shouldn’t happen. Charlton Jimerson will probably move up to Tacoma to replace Adam Jones when he’s promoted, but he’s not really a prospect anymore.
Ack, I didn’t mean “counted on”; I meant something more like “expected”.
Is Adam Jones a star even if plays a corner OF position or does he become truly valuable as a CF?
I agree that Morrow needs to go down; any chance, if Bavasi goes, that the new GM sends him back to AA (or wherever) to learn how to pitch?
Why would Bavasi go? The team is winning. They already have parted ways with Hargrove. The only way I see Bavasi going is if the M’s tanked, reeling off a ten game losing streak to its division or wildcard rivals. Even then, I doubt the team would fire the GM in the season: what would be the point? It’s not like a new GM could do anything to salvage the 2007, and you may not even get permission to talk to all the guys you want to interview while their teams are still in the hunt. The gap between the end of the season and the winter meetings is the window of opportunity, so you might as well wait until the season is over. But if the team keeps winning, and especially if it gets into the playoffs, don’t you think Bavasi is off the hotseat?
Anyway, if Lowe is all the way back to healthy or if Mickolio looks ready, that offers them the opportunity to send Morrow down to the minors where he’s belonged all along. Unfortunately he may singlehandedly lose a game or two before that happens.
(I love the name Mickolio BTW. When he comes into the game we’ll be able to revive the old Olerud “oli-oli-oh” song/chant).
Charlton Jimerson. Prospect or no, that is a sweet name.
Is Adam Jones a star even if plays a corner OF position or does he become truly valuable as a CF
He’s a star even in a corner. His defense would make him a +20 defender in left field, and when combined with his bat, he’d still be a 3 to 4 win player, maybe more in his prime.
(I love the name Mickolio BTW. When he comes into the game we’ll be able to revive the old Olerud “oli-oli-oh” song/chant).
Its pronounced Mac-ki-oh.
Charlton Jimerson. Prospect or no, that is a sweet name.
He’s got a great backstory too. I always wanted him to make it. They should have him hang out with Greg Halman and say “see, that’s what you’ll be if you don’t tone it down, kid”.
#43, OK, you’re right he as very good for 3.5 years of his career, even with the bad defense. And actually, now that I’m looking, the 2003-2007 UZR numbers show him as +9 runs per 150 games. I think we could only be thrilled to get that from Wlad.
I assume Bavasi is certainly here to the end of the year at least, and won’t be fired unless the Mariners finish under .500. Even if they collapse to .500, it would be the fourth straight year of improvement. Do you fire a guy at that point?
Dave, are there any prospects in our system that you are higher on than you think the scouts and front office are?
Its pronounced Mac-ki-oh.
Really? I could’ve sworn I heard Curto pronouncing it Mick-OH-lee-oh on a broadcast where he was talkin’ him up pretty highly…
“I am the Great Mickolio!” sorry…had to throw the Beavis and Butthead out there…
Dave, are there any prospects in our system that you are higher on than you think the scouts and front office are?
Tony Butler before all these arm problems. Alex Liddi, proably.
Really? I could’ve sworn I heard Curto pronouncing it Mick-OH-lee-oh on a broadcast where he was talkin’ him up pretty highly…
I’ll ask Mike. I haven’t heard Curto say it, but when I talked to some player development people about him last winter, I got corrected when I said Mick-oh-lee-oh. Of course, sometimes these guys change their minds – Joel Pineiro’s name was normal until he got to Tacoma, then turned himself into Jo-el.
What is the story behind Rohrbaugh? What kind of pitcher is he? What kind of upside do you see – long relief, LOOGY?
What is the story behind Rohrbaugh? What kind of pitcher is he? What kind of upside do you see – long relief, LOOGY?
Basic command lefty with no outpitch. Stuff is a notch below Feierabend and Thomas. Probably a long reliever, but occassionally, these guys turn into okay 5th starters.
For Juan Ramirez, how bad are his control issues? The last game he started he walked 4 straight batters to start the game (although to his credit he only walked one the rest of the night).
[Jimerson's] got a great backstory too.
Just read his wikipedia entry – that is movie material there, right down to his first big league at bat. Of course, it would probably be a pretty cheesy movie, but still, wow.
I thought Pineiro was pronounced crap.
Can be Yuni be deemed a good regular at this point? His bat has always been average (and that’s being generous) and he’s never lived up to the praise regarding his defense. If anything, he’s gone Knoblauch this year.
In the movie, Jimerson would be called up to the majors, sit on the bench because nobody believed in him, then finally get put in and hit a home run with the bases loaded.
In the real world, he’d be Ron Wright, hit into a few double plays, and be sent down to A-.
Yuni hasn’t looked like he’s made good reads at all this year, his routes look real bad. Yhat’s my observational opinion.
Okay, final answer on Mickolio’s name:
“mick-o-LIE-oh: rhymes with: mick oh my oh, with the emphasis on the “lie”
I was 0 for 2. At least now we know.
I was 0 for 2. At least now we know.
Heh. It’s still easier to spell than Buehrle.
But he’s another prime example why a)the M’s bullpen does not need much, if any attention; and b) it’s probably wise to focus more attention and money, in general, on SPs and hitters, as the bullpen is the easiest thing in the planet to find players for. Relief aces aren’t easy to find, of course, but even then, they have a limited shelf life themselves…
I’ve caught one game in Everett so far and was mildly surprised to see Halman in RF and Jermaine Brock in CF. Any background on Brock?
Brock was drafted a couple of years ago, then spent two years away from the game due to personal problems. He can fly, but he was a longshot before he missed crucial development time, and he’s not really a prospect anymore.
What are your thoughts on Juan Diaz?
Dave, do you have any insights on Carlos Peguero? Where would you rank him in terms of long-term potential versus Halman and Liddi?
What are your thoughts on Juan Diaz?
I don’t really have any original thoughts. I talked to Churchill about him this morning, because I’ve only got a couple of so-so reports on him from scouts passing through the MWL who weren’t very impressed, but I didn’t know much more about him. From all accounts, he’s a fringe prospect who has had a nice couple of weeks, but probably isn’t a major league player.
Dave, do you have any insights on Carlos Peguero? Where would you rank him in terms of long-term potential versus Halman and Liddi?
When you’re DH’ing in low-A ball at age 20, you better be some kind of hitter. He’s not. There’s power there, but I actually considered chucking him off the list. At this point, he’s more suspect than prospect.
Funny thing about Wlad… he said in an interview on the Mariners All Access show that his idol was Manny Ramirez, and teammates mentioned how he wanted to be just like Manny.
Also, Carlos Triunfel made his first appearance yesterday since breaking his thumb, going 2 for 4 in Peoria with the AZL Mariners squad. Good to see him back.
Re: Jimerson
That story would have been really cool if Jim Morris the U Miami coach was Jim “The Rookie” Morris, but alas not.
The intersection of two rags to respectability stories would have been awesome.
Can you give us an best case/moderate case/worst case for Matt Mangini? Is it something like Corey Koskie/Jim Presley/Ron Prettyman?
I thought Pineiro was pronounced crap.
Not anymore, unless you’re a Red Sox fan. For everyone else, it’s pronounced “Chef Boy-r-dee: lotsa meatballs!”
“mick-o-LIE-oh: rhymes with: mick oh my oh, with the emphasis on the “lie”
Thanks, Dave, didn’t mean to send you off to research something so trivial. This does give us hope to see him come in and get a crucial, bases-loaded strikeout, thus giving Dave N the opportunity make the call “My oh my Mickolio!”
Brandon Morrow with better command? Yes, please. I have to admit, for all the organization’s bad luck regarding starting pitchers, the system has given us an absolute boon of top-quality relief pitching. Dave, I know how you like to remind us how easy it is to find quality relievers, but I have to think that we’ve been particularly lucky in this regard.
If it’s so easy to find good relief pitching why do so many teams have terrible bullpens. I know Mariners teams at the end of the 90s had terrible bullpens. Is there basically no excuse for it?
If it’s so easy to find good relief pitching why do so many teams have terrible bullpens. I know Mariners teams at the end of the 90s had terrible bullpens. Is there basically no excuse for it?
I have a few ideas on this:
1) Some teams don’t know where to look
2) Some teams don’t know how to assess talent
3) Some managers rely too much on a guy they’re comfortable with, and, well, believe that they should call in a flyball pitchers to come into a situation where you desperately need a ground ball.
Etc…
I can’t imagine any manager silly enough to do number 3. If one exists, he might as well just up and quit…
77. I don’t really find any of those answers satisfactory. The Tigers and Yankees are not poorly run teams, but those bullpens are godawful.
78. Do you remember Julio Mateo?
78. oh right, you were being facetious
What happened to the two pitchers the M’s acquired last year in the Jamie Moyer trade? All I recall was that there were in Class A ball.
Are there any prospects left from any of the other trades that were made in the last couple of years when the M’s were sellers? The only ones I can recall are Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse, and Travis Chick.
Given the results how would you grade Bavasi in those deadline deals?
This does give us hope to see him come in and get a crucial, bases-loaded strikeout, thus giving Dave N the opportunity make the call “My oh my Mickolio!”
‘hope’?
One of those pitchers is discussed in the Seattle Times today. I don’t know how to link without using a really long url, so I apologize for making you go look for it yourself.
Dave,
Thanks for the update. It’s interesting to see that Balentein’s home/away stats are identical, even though Tacoma is an extreme pitchers’ park. (Clement and Jones are hitting much better on the road, as you would expect.) Is this just a small sample size thing, or do you think Balentein might be the rare right-handed hitter with enough power to launch home runs even at really expansive ballparks, like Safeco. (This was the “when he hits them hard, no park will hold the ball” theory behind the Richie Sexson signing, I guess.) Relatedly, does Tacoma favor lefties as much as Safeco does, or is it neutral as between lefties and righties?
77. I don’t really find any of those answers satisfactory. The Tigers and Yankees are not poorly run teams, but those bullpens are godawful.
Well, I’m not sure I’d completely agree that the Yankees and the Tigers aren’t poorly run teams, and I don’t think either of those teams have bullpens that are at the bottom of the league.
But I will add one more:
4) Injuries can play a huge factor.
#83– Andrew Barb, from the Times
Can you give us an best case/moderate case/worst case for Matt Mangini? Is it something like Corey Koskie/Jim Presley/Ron Prettyman?
I still like the left-handed Xavier Nady comment from a scout friend on draft day.
Dave, I know how you like to remind us how easy it is to find quality relievers, but I have to think that we’ve been particularly lucky in this regard.
Safeco helps somewhat, but yea, the M’s have been pretty fortunate that J.J. Putz went from average middle reliever to best relief ace in the game. That pretty much came out of nowhere.
If it’s so easy to find good relief pitching why do so many teams have terrible bullpens. I know Mariners teams at the end of the 90s had terrible bullpens. Is there basically no excuse for it?
Same reason the M’s are DH’ing Jose Vidro – most teams still wildly overrate proven commodities in lieu of better younger players, because as Bavasi said at the Hargrove press conference, “young players get managers fired”. If you have an old guy who breaks down and sucks, it’s the player’s fault, but if you have the kid a chance and he fails, it’s the manager/GM’s fault for using a non-proven guy. It’s risk aversion to a ridiculous degree.
What happened to the two pitchers the M’s acquired last year in the Jamie Moyer trade? All I recall was that there were in Class A ball.
Andrew Baldwin is part of the Double-A West Tennessee rotation. He probably needs to move to the ‘pen to have a major league career, and that’s a longshot. Andrew Barb was pitching well for Wisconsin before going on the DL.
Given the results how would you grade Bavasi in those deadline deals?
Considering that I reject the whole concept of evaluating a GM through results-based analysis, I’ll pass.
Is this just a small sample size thing, or do you think Balentein might be the rare right-handed hitter with enough power to launch home runs even at really expansive ballparks, like Safeco.
Sample size. There’s no such thing as a right-handed pull hitter that isn’t hurt by Safeco. Alex Rodriguez has ridiculous power, and Safeco killed him. Same for Jay Buhner. There’s no evidence that just having extra power allows you to overcome the huge problems Safeco creates for right-handed pull hitters. If you want to succeed as a hitter in Seattle, you have to hit the ball to right field.
Relatedly, does Tacoma favor lefties as much as Safeco does, or is it neutral as between lefties and righties?
It’s brutal on hitters from both sides.
I have a off-the-wall question, mostly because the human element in the minor league system intrigues me: Are there any good stories/books/etc. on career minor leaguers (not the fluff pieces about the guy who finally got his shot, really)? I assume a lot of these guys may never see an at-bat or throw a pitch in the majors. They bring the only stability there really is to ever-changing rosters in the minors – by nature transitional points for the developing stars – and they know they’ll never be a big leaguer at some point, I suppose. But do guys eek out livings playing minor league ball into their late 30’s and 40’s? Not to mention what the hell you’d do after that- since presumably you didn’t make millions.
Has anybody written something good exploring that world? I think it’d be a fascinating read.
Curto changed his pronounciation on Kam’s last name between his first and second appearances on the broadcast.
Question: Nick Green. Now playing RF/3B/2B in Tacoma. Never heard of him before but man, he’s been a pleasure to watch since he came up. Sweet defense, great arm, handling the bat fairly well. What’s the deal on him? Is he just having a super lucky streak?
Also, what is it about you w/r/t Rob Johnson? You’ve alluded to that scouts seem to value him more highly than you do, where’s the difference – just in value of defense, or intangible ‘leadership’ stuff, or what? Are there other players in our org that your evaluation differs significantly from your scout friends?
Considering that I reject the whole concept of evaluating a GM through results-based analysis, I’ll pass.
That would be a really sweet blog post if you dove into that statement, because it’s a statement that really cries out for “well, then how DO we evaluate GMs, anyway”?
#90, wouldn’t we want to evaluate the GM based on how the move looked at the time? Whether or not a prospect becomes a bust is hardly in the control of the GM. What the prospects looked like (using reliable data, and standards we’ve come to trust) seems like the only fair way to do it. Some will pan out, some won’t, but the objective upside/risk indicators at the time the deal was made in relation to objective value of the player traded seems like a reasonable way, don’t you think? That and how the trades fit the needs of both the major and minor league rosters at the time the moves are made.
by needs of the minor league rosters, I mean depth of the organization.
Question: Nick Green. Now playing RF/3B/2B in Tacoma. Never heard of him before but man, he’s been a pleasure to watch since he came up. Sweet defense, great arm, handling the bat fairly well. What’s the deal on him? Is he just having a super lucky streak?
He’s kicked around the minors for years. Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New York all got enamored with his bat control, gave him a decent looks in the majors, and found out that he can’t hit. He’s not a bad Triple-A player, but if he ever makes it to Seattle, it’s bad news for the M’s.
Also, what is it about you w/r/t Rob Johnson? You’ve alluded to that scouts seem to value him more highly than you do, where’s the difference – just in value of defense, or intangible ‘leadership’ stuff, or what? Are there other players in our org that your evaluation differs significantly from your scout friends?
The M’s love Johnson essentially because of who he is as a person. They’re in love with his leadership/game calling abilities, and are completely willing to overlook the fact that he can’t hit.
To me, he looks like the new Brad Ausmus or Charlie O’Brien. They really want him to be Dan Wilson, but I just don’t see it. I think he’s a guy that’s just not a particularly talented baseball player, but gets promoted through the ranks because he’s such an impressive person.
Basically, he’s Willie Bloomoquist, part two. I’m not a fan of Johnson’s for the same reason I’m not a fan of Willie’s – neither of them can hit well enough to be worthy of how highly the organization thinks of them.
88,
This is a novel not a true story, but it is one of the best baseball books ever written (and one of the greatest “lost books” that never earned the recognition it should have):
Every Young Man’s Dream : Confessions of a Southern League Shortstop by Morry Frank
http://www.amazon.com/Every-Young-Mans-Dream-Confessions/dp/0916747026/ref=sr_1_2/104-3739811-5589563?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1183493673&sr=8-2
91- well, OK, but the statements like “results-based analysis” require qualification and elaboration. Won-loss records and World Championships are results just as much as performance of prospects you acquire in a trade. I assume we consider the first two results pretty important in evaluating GM performance… but then you have Billy Beane and the Atlanta Braves contrasted to the Florida Marlins.
What I guess I’m asking for is something like a companion piece to Evaluating Pitcher Talent that takes us through how to look at a GM, because it’d be an interesting piece.
DMZ wrote this one
95 – Agreed.
94 – Thanks!
Would Jimerson be that much of a downgrade from Ellison?
Sounds like Gary Thurman has been named first base coach taking Mike Goff’s place since he will be the new bench coach.
I also noticed that former Mariners scout for Australia, Pat Kelly has been named bench coach of the Reds.
To me, he looks like the new Brad Ausmus or Charlie O’Brien
Brad Ausmus has over 1750 games as a major league catcher, multiple Gold Gloves and an All-Star appearance.
The offensive difference between Ausmus and Wilson isn’t terribly huge, actually- Ausmus has a lower OPS+, but higher OBP. Ausmus is likely the better player- higher assist/game (better arm), lower passed ball/game (block plate) totals, still playing 500+ games later in his career than Wilson (Wilson couldn’t stay healthy).
I dunno if I’d be very enamored with a no-hit, good defense C who could stay healthy like Ausmus, but if Johnson turned into that… well, the Astros were able to build a winning team around that.
Now, if he’s Charlie O’Brien… gah. Disaster. Now THAT would be like making Willie Bloomquist your starting 2B. I suspect Rob Johnson’s max upside is Ausmus/Wilson, and he’s more likely O’Brien…
Brad Ausmus has over 1750 games as a major league catcher, multiple Gold Gloves and an All-Star appearance.
Neifi Perez has 1400 games played as a major leaguer and a gold glove award. Ozzie Guillen played 2,000 games, was a three-time all-star, won a gold glove, and rookie of the year. Wee!
The list of players who suck, but had long careers because their organizations have vastly overvalued their abilities, is extensive.
I dunno if I’d be very enamored with a no-hit, good defense C who could stay healthy like Ausmus, but if Johnson turned into that… well, the Astros were able to build a winning team around that.
The Astros built a winning team despite Brad Ausmus. He’s been dragging them down for years.
And that’s Johnson’s best case scenario.
I tend to differentiate one GG from several. Perez is also considerably more terrible than Ausmus at the plate.
Historically, it DOES seem teams put a serious premium on perceived defensive performance: you have Bob Boone, Jim Sundberg, Luke Sewell, Al Lopez, Dan Wilson, and so on. There’s a rather long list of guys who go on to thousand game careers because they have reps as being awesome with pitchers and good defensive players. So really, it would be better to put a random AAA guy who’d hit .240/.300/.365 behind the plate every so often, until you either come up with a decent hitting C somehow, and save the cash?
I tend to differentiate one GG from several. Perez is also considerably more terrible than Ausmus at the plate.
Derek Jeter has two gold gloves. Adam Everett has zero. I tend to think gold gloves are useless measuring sticks of anything beyond voter ignorance.
So really, it would be better to put a random AAA guy who’d hit .240/.300/.365 behind the plate every so often, until you either come up with a decent hitting C somehow, and save the cash?
I think we’re going to have the same discussions about Johnson that we’re now having about Bloomquist – he’s not the problem (after all, he’s on the Future Forty, so I don’t think he’s a nothing player), but rather, it’s how the organization reacts to him that’s the problem. If they view him as Kenji’s long term successor (some do), and they give him ridiculous amounts of playing time while he makes outs like crazy, that’s a problem. If they buy out his arbitration years with a multi-year contract, that’s a problem. If they give Jeff Clement away because they have another catcher-of-the-future in Tacoma, that’s a problem.
Johnson himself is fine. There’s nothing wrong with having a 24-year-old guy who can be a decent defensive backup catcher for the league minimum in the organization. I’m just worried that the M’s view him as much, much more than that.
Well, yeah, like I said, if he’s Charlie O’Brien… well, Charlie O’Brien had one year as a regular- and even that was 109 games on a bad Toronto team.
You might notice the term “perceived” throughout my posts- Gold Gloves are based on perceptions (and often lag real performance), as is giving 1000-1500 games behind the plate to a guy who can’t hit because you think his defense is great (see: Wilson, Dan). Whether it actually IS is sort of another matter- I tend to think we don’t have great tools to measure this, so we end up using perceptions more than we should.
Who are the C’s who are the equivalent of Adam Everett- where the defense DOES make up for the terrible offense? I’d guess historically Bob Boone is one, but who meets that standard now- if Ausmus doesn’t?
There might not be any good cases where defense HAS made up for the bad offense. I’d hazard a guess at some of the Molina brothers in their younger years (Yadier Excluded).
I went to high school with Charlie O’Brien’s brother.
That’s all I have to offer this debate.
107 — You are old.
I tend to think gold gloves are useless measuring sticks of anything beyond voter ignorance.
Have the GGs always been useless, or is this a recent development from the last 15 years or so?
The voters don’t take the award seriously, or they are painfully dense about it.
Rick Dempsey.
1766 games, 87 OPS+
Weaver kept running him out there, so I have to assume he was an asset behind the plate.
Have the GGs always been useless, or is this a recent development from the last 15 years or so?
They’ve always been a subjective award based entirely on media perception, but I think the current GG hate-on started with Palmeiro’s Gold Glove in 1999.
As better defensive metrics get developed, you should start seeing sabermetrics influence the voting. But it could be a while.
As always, the Future Forty is a highlight of the site. Thanks Dave. I’m curious what you know about Mangini’s defense at third. I seem to recall having heard after the draft that his glove was questionable, but for now I guess he’s still at third. Can he hack it there, or is he a first baseman/DH (or corner outfielder) waiting to happen?
Tui was 0 for 2 with 2 K’s against me in high school, both on forkballs, and 0 for 3 with 3 K’s against my friend’s team in high school, all with curveballs. Anyone know if his strikeout rate has anything to do with not being able to hit breaking balls? The guy can kill a fastball. I just hope he makes the bigs so I can live vicariously through him like a loser.
It seems when the Mariners won a bunch of gold gloves in 2002 & 2003, Ichiro, Cameron, Boone & Olerud. Those seemed legitimate to me…although Boone was slowing down a bit.
Dave,
Comments on Woerman switching to starter? Seems he’s done rather well so far.
Is Steven Richard a surprise? Posting good K rates, low walk rates, and low home run rates in Wisconsin, though he IS 22 years old. Does he warrant a promotion?
Kyle Parker and Nathan Adcock seem to be doing okay.
Although his ERA doesn’t show it, Anthony Varvaro is putting up some decent numbers, though his walk rate needs improvement. He’s also getting quite a few grounders. Considering his TJ surgery, is this the best we’re going to get or is he back on the track towards development?
88,
Hi, I’ve been haunting this blog for some time, but my baseball IQ is generally too low to contribute much. However, I do know a tremendous novel about a minor leaguer.
It sounds like you’re looking for some nonfiction, but I’d still heartily recommend David James Duncan’s The Brothers K.
It’s one of the best novels of the last century. One of the protagonists is a minor league ballplayer/mill worker who struggles to make it big while raising a family. The novel isn’t necessarily about baseball, but it paints a moving picture of life in the minors and teaches some baseball/life wisdom along the way.
If I’m stumbling over my words a bit, it’s cause i just can’t recommend The Brothers K enough. Duncan crafts great characters and somehow manages to be philsophical and funny at the same time. Better yet, it’s mostly set in Camus, Washington.
Check it out!!!
http://www.amazon.com/Brothers-K-David-James-Duncan/dp/055337849X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-3795956-9188167?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1183507775&sr=8-1
You have decidedly under-rated Michael Saunders. Go back and take another look at him.
Ok…….now I feel dumb. I left that comment before I read your comments. So you did leave your reasoning there for me to look at if I had so chosen.
You really should keep more of an open mind about him, though. You have to keep an eye on young guys that have a breadth of talent that leaves them many different paths in which to develop. He’s a much better prospect than say, Tuiasosopo.
One thing people need to understand is that Dave’s ratings change as the player takes a step up or a step back, or depending on the organizations philosophy on a player.
Morrow was a 8 until the Mariners stupidly promoted him this year and earmarked him a reliever. Now he’s a 7, he could be an 8 again if he goes down and learns to start instead. Jeff Clement was an 8 too, but went down to a 7 due to concerns about his bat speed. Adam Jones was an 8 at one point, now sits at a robust 9. Triunfel was a 9, but now is at the tops of Dave’s list as a potential perennial All-Star.
It’s a trial and error process. So if Mike Suanders does something amazing and takes a huge leap forward, he’ll go from an 5 to whatever Dave feels he warrants. But until then, he’s gonna have to prove he belongs on the board at all.
You really should keep more of an open mind about him, though. You have to keep an eye on young guys that have a breadth of talent that leaves them many different paths in which to develop. He’s a much better prospect than say, Tuiasosopo.
Saunders doesn’t have breadth of talent – he has a distinct lack of any one major league skill. It’s not that he’s good at everything – it’s that he’s not great at anything. It’s true that he doesn’t have any gaping flaws – he’s decent defensively in a corner outfield spot, he makes some contact, he has a bit of power, he draws some walks, he runs fine – but he doesn’t have any real strengths, either.
You know who Saunders reminds me of? Dave Krynzel, just a few inches taller.
Is it possible that I’m totally wrong? Sure. I missed badly on Adam Jones when the M’s drafted him. I thought his future was going to be on the mound after he’d fail as a hitter. He proved me wrong. Saunders has a long ways to go before he does the same, though.
Dave, at one point you said that Baseball Prospectus didn’t know what they were doing when they had Jeremy Reed as high as their #2 prospect (2004). After checking out BP this year, is there anyone that you think stands out as ranked way too high/low?
Re books, I’d echo the recommendaton for David Duncan’s The Brothers K. It isn’t just about baseball, but baseball weaves throughout it, along with love, politics, family and living as a late twentieth century American. It’s one of my favorite novels.
There might not be any good cases where defense HAS made up for the bad offense.
Ok, then why don’t we stick Richie Sexson or Ben Broussard at catcher? Or why don’t the Red Sox stick Manny there?
Obviously defense counts for SOMETHING at C, or we wouldn’t see a bunch of no-hit guys play there (just like at SS and 2B). I guess the question becomes can a C make up 20-30 runs on defense in a season? If so, a PLAYER who’s +20 to +30 on offense is valuable… so the converse is valuable too.
Of all the positions on the field, catcher is the one where the defensive contribution is the hardest for a fan (or anyone else not on the field or in the dugout) to guage. IF the catcher is calling the game, that can make or break a pticher (see all the discussions about pitch selection lately). Yes, the pitcher can shake the catcher off, but this can be frustrating to both, as the confrontations between Freddy Garcia and Dan Wilson demonstrate. In addition to pitch selection,, there is also the matter of calling the location of the pitch. The catcher also has a role in setting the defense. These contributions can add (or subtract) runs that are hard to quantify.
Catchers also can more obviously save runs by blocking wild pitches with runners on base. A good block with a runner on third is worth a run. I think this is the posiiton where defense matters the most.
There is no evidence that catchers differ significantly in how they affect the game through pitch calling. See many studies by Woolner, others.
DMZ: I will look up the studies, but it seems counter to everything Dave has researched about Felix’s pitch selection. He is getting lit up because someone is calling for fastball after fastball. If that somebody is the cathcer, and theoretically it is, this definitely affects the game. So does calling pitches in a predictable pattern. But I will try to find the studies you mention.
Curious — any idea if Triunfel in High Desert is something that will last? Was it expected?