Future Forty Updated for July
The monthly Future Forty update has been uploaded to the site. Yes, I know, the date still says 4/30/07 for last update, but you’ll just have to trust me that the new file is online.
This is a pretty big update. Lots of changes stemming from additions, subtractions, promotions, and injuries, as well as getting better scouting info on a good number of players, leading to some revised risk and reward rankings, as well as a few guys bouncing from one category to the other. The draft, obviously, occurred since the last update, and the team’s top two selections – Phillipe Aumont and Matt Mangini – both find their way onto the Future Forty. I’m planning a longer draft review post for later on, so I won’t focus on either of those two, or the other draftees, that much in this post.
Also debuting is 18-year-old RHP Juan Ramirez, who we’ve talked about in the past as the guy you want to see when you take a road trip up to Everett. With Ramirez and Aumont, the M’s have added two more high ceiling pitchers to the low levels of the farm system. Speaking of high ceiling arms, I speculated during last month’s post that I believed Tony Butler was pitching through an injury, and sure enough, he hit the DL a few days later. He’s had a year to forget, battling reduced velocity, “dead arm”, back problems, shoulder pain, and a complete lack of command. We’ll wait to see how the M’s handle him going forward, but it may be in his best interest to just sit out the rest of the season and try to get back on track during the Fall Instructional League.
Also, the Chris Tillman to High Desert experiment has predictably been a disaster. I’m sure the Mariners and their make-prospects-fail philosophy see this as an opportunity for the kid to overcome adversity, but he just has no business in the Cal League. We’ll see how he responds, but I’m still of the opinion that throwing a kid in the pool and making him learn how to swim in order to save his own life is bad parenting, and this is the baseball equivalent of that.
Moving on to happier news, Adam Jones!
Speaking of Tacoma, Wladimir Balentien’s performance in June was probably the most impressive he’s had as a professional. We talked about his sliding scale abilities last year, where he showed he could hit for power and show an improved approach at the plate, but just not at the same time. Well, that carried over to April and May, where he torched the ball early in the season but didn’t walk, then saw his average fall apart as he got more patient in May. In June, for the first time, he finally put the whole package together – high contact rate (for him, anyways), high walk rate, and power. There’s still some work to do, but it appears that he has made The Leap, and he’s on the doorstep of being a bonafide major league player. A scout friend of mine last week talked about how much Balentien reminded him of Magglio Ordonez, and that comparison actually holds up pretty well. As long as he keeps working hard, he looks like he’s going to become a cross between Carlos Lee and Magglio, which is a better player than I ever expected Balentien to turn into. He deserves a lot of credit for his significant improvement this year.
Matt Tuiasasopo’s strikeout rate by month: 15.0%. 19.8%, 26.7%. I think pitchers in the Southern League have made their adjustments. Now it’s time for Tui to make his.
One name we probably haven’t talked about enough is Kameron Mickolio. He was an 18th round pick last summer and is looking like an absolute steal a year later. At 6’9 with long arms, he’s an intimidating presence on the mound, and he can get his fastball up to the plate at 94-96 consistently. He’s mixing in a cut fastball to keep left-handers off balance and, after a rough debut, has settled in to blowing away PCL hitters after his promotion from West Tennessee to Tacoma. Mickolio is basically Brandon Morrow with better command right now. With Morrow proving more and more with every appearance that he simply isn’t a major league pitcher and can’t be counted on in any kind of high leverage situation, the M’s may give Mickolio a serious look before the end of the year. A lot of people are hoping Mark Lowe can come back and give the M’s another devastating right-handed setup man, but if I was going to pick a guy from the organization who could help the bullpen in the second half, it’d be Mickolio. And he was an 18th round pick just 13 months ago. This is why we love Bob Fontaine.
Oh, and I guess I should mention that Michael Saunders will join Wladimir Balentien in playing the outfield for the World Team in the Futures Game next week. I’m still not very impressed with Saunders. He gets high marks for his athleticism, but I don’t think he has the bat to carry himself as a corner outfielder or the glove to play center. He’s only 20, and I’ve been wrong about plenty of guys before, so feel free to keep an eye on him, but I’m just not very excited about his skillset.
As always, feel free to use this thread for any prospect/minor league questions you may have.
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To me, he looks like the new Brad Ausmus or Charlie O’Brien
Brad Ausmus has over 1750 games as a major league catcher, multiple Gold Gloves and an All-Star appearance.
The offensive difference between Ausmus and Wilson isn’t terribly huge, actually- Ausmus has a lower OPS+, but higher OBP. Ausmus is likely the better player- higher assist/game (better arm), lower passed ball/game (block plate) totals, still playing 500+ games later in his career than Wilson (Wilson couldn’t stay healthy).
I dunno if I’d be very enamored with a no-hit, good defense C who could stay healthy like Ausmus, but if Johnson turned into that… well, the Astros were able to build a winning team around that.
Now, if he’s Charlie O’Brien… gah. Disaster. Now THAT would be like making Willie Bloomquist your starting 2B. I suspect Rob Johnson’s max upside is Ausmus/Wilson, and he’s more likely O’Brien…
Brad Ausmus has over 1750 games as a major league catcher, multiple Gold Gloves and an All-Star appearance.
Neifi Perez has 1400 games played as a major leaguer and a gold glove award. Ozzie Guillen played 2,000 games, was a three-time all-star, won a gold glove, and rookie of the year. Wee!
The list of players who suck, but had long careers because their organizations have vastly overvalued their abilities, is extensive.
I dunno if I’d be very enamored with a no-hit, good defense C who could stay healthy like Ausmus, but if Johnson turned into that… well, the Astros were able to build a winning team around that.
The Astros built a winning team despite Brad Ausmus. He’s been dragging them down for years.
And that’s Johnson’s best case scenario.
I tend to differentiate one GG from several. Perez is also considerably more terrible than Ausmus at the plate.
Historically, it DOES seem teams put a serious premium on perceived defensive performance: you have Bob Boone, Jim Sundberg, Luke Sewell, Al Lopez, Dan Wilson, and so on. There’s a rather long list of guys who go on to thousand game careers because they have reps as being awesome with pitchers and good defensive players. So really, it would be better to put a random AAA guy who’d hit .240/.300/.365 behind the plate every so often, until you either come up with a decent hitting C somehow, and save the cash?
I tend to differentiate one GG from several. Perez is also considerably more terrible than Ausmus at the plate.
Derek Jeter has two gold gloves. Adam Everett has zero. I tend to think gold gloves are useless measuring sticks of anything beyond voter ignorance.
So really, it would be better to put a random AAA guy who’d hit .240/.300/.365 behind the plate every so often, until you either come up with a decent hitting C somehow, and save the cash?
I think we’re going to have the same discussions about Johnson that we’re now having about Bloomquist – he’s not the problem (after all, he’s on the Future Forty, so I don’t think he’s a nothing player), but rather, it’s how the organization reacts to him that’s the problem. If they view him as Kenji’s long term successor (some do), and they give him ridiculous amounts of playing time while he makes outs like crazy, that’s a problem. If they buy out his arbitration years with a multi-year contract, that’s a problem. If they give Jeff Clement away because they have another catcher-of-the-future in Tacoma, that’s a problem.
Johnson himself is fine. There’s nothing wrong with having a 24-year-old guy who can be a decent defensive backup catcher for the league minimum in the organization. I’m just worried that the M’s view him as much, much more than that.
Well, yeah, like I said, if he’s Charlie O’Brien… well, Charlie O’Brien had one year as a regular- and even that was 109 games on a bad Toronto team.
You might notice the term “perceived” throughout my posts- Gold Gloves are based on perceptions (and often lag real performance), as is giving 1000-1500 games behind the plate to a guy who can’t hit because you think his defense is great (see: Wilson, Dan). Whether it actually IS is sort of another matter- I tend to think we don’t have great tools to measure this, so we end up using perceptions more than we should.
Who are the C’s who are the equivalent of Adam Everett- where the defense DOES make up for the terrible offense? I’d guess historically Bob Boone is one, but who meets that standard now- if Ausmus doesn’t?
There might not be any good cases where defense HAS made up for the bad offense. I’d hazard a guess at some of the Molina brothers in their younger years (Yadier Excluded).
I went to high school with Charlie O’Brien’s brother.
That’s all I have to offer this debate.
107 — You are old.
I tend to think gold gloves are useless measuring sticks of anything beyond voter ignorance.
Have the GGs always been useless, or is this a recent development from the last 15 years or so?
The voters don’t take the award seriously, or they are painfully dense about it.
Rick Dempsey.
1766 games, 87 OPS+
Weaver kept running him out there, so I have to assume he was an asset behind the plate.
Have the GGs always been useless, or is this a recent development from the last 15 years or so?
They’ve always been a subjective award based entirely on media perception, but I think the current GG hate-on started with Palmeiro’s Gold Glove in 1999.
As better defensive metrics get developed, you should start seeing sabermetrics influence the voting. But it could be a while.
As always, the Future Forty is a highlight of the site. Thanks Dave. I’m curious what you know about Mangini’s defense at third. I seem to recall having heard after the draft that his glove was questionable, but for now I guess he’s still at third. Can he hack it there, or is he a first baseman/DH (or corner outfielder) waiting to happen?
Tui was 0 for 2 with 2 K’s against me in high school, both on forkballs, and 0 for 3 with 3 K’s against my friend’s team in high school, all with curveballs. Anyone know if his strikeout rate has anything to do with not being able to hit breaking balls? The guy can kill a fastball. I just hope he makes the bigs so I can live vicariously through him like a loser. 🙂
It seems when the Mariners won a bunch of gold gloves in 2002 & 2003, Ichiro, Cameron, Boone & Olerud. Those seemed legitimate to me…although Boone was slowing down a bit.
Dave,
Comments on Woerman switching to starter? Seems he’s done rather well so far.
Is Steven Richard a surprise? Posting good K rates, low walk rates, and low home run rates in Wisconsin, though he IS 22 years old. Does he warrant a promotion?
Kyle Parker and Nathan Adcock seem to be doing okay.
Although his ERA doesn’t show it, Anthony Varvaro is putting up some decent numbers, though his walk rate needs improvement. He’s also getting quite a few grounders. Considering his TJ surgery, is this the best we’re going to get or is he back on the track towards development?
88,
Hi, I’ve been haunting this blog for some time, but my baseball IQ is generally too low to contribute much. However, I do know a tremendous novel about a minor leaguer.
It sounds like you’re looking for some nonfiction, but I’d still heartily recommend David James Duncan’s The Brothers K.
It’s one of the best novels of the last century. One of the protagonists is a minor league ballplayer/mill worker who struggles to make it big while raising a family. The novel isn’t necessarily about baseball, but it paints a moving picture of life in the minors and teaches some baseball/life wisdom along the way.
If I’m stumbling over my words a bit, it’s cause i just can’t recommend The Brothers K enough. Duncan crafts great characters and somehow manages to be philsophical and funny at the same time. Better yet, it’s mostly set in Camus, Washington.
Check it out!!!
http://www.amazon.com/Brothers-K-David-James-Duncan/dp/055337849X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-3795956-9188167?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1183507775&sr=8-1
You have decidedly under-rated Michael Saunders. Go back and take another look at him.
Ok…….now I feel dumb. I left that comment before I read your comments. So you did leave your reasoning there for me to look at if I had so chosen.
You really should keep more of an open mind about him, though. You have to keep an eye on young guys that have a breadth of talent that leaves them many different paths in which to develop. He’s a much better prospect than say, Tuiasosopo.
One thing people need to understand is that Dave’s ratings change as the player takes a step up or a step back, or depending on the organizations philosophy on a player.
Morrow was a 8 until the Mariners stupidly promoted him this year and earmarked him a reliever. Now he’s a 7, he could be an 8 again if he goes down and learns to start instead. Jeff Clement was an 8 too, but went down to a 7 due to concerns about his bat speed. Adam Jones was an 8 at one point, now sits at a robust 9. Triunfel was a 9, but now is at the tops of Dave’s list as a potential perennial All-Star.
It’s a trial and error process. So if Mike Suanders does something amazing and takes a huge leap forward, he’ll go from an 5 to whatever Dave feels he warrants. But until then, he’s gonna have to prove he belongs on the board at all.
You really should keep more of an open mind about him, though. You have to keep an eye on young guys that have a breadth of talent that leaves them many different paths in which to develop. He’s a much better prospect than say, Tuiasosopo.
Saunders doesn’t have breadth of talent – he has a distinct lack of any one major league skill. It’s not that he’s good at everything – it’s that he’s not great at anything. It’s true that he doesn’t have any gaping flaws – he’s decent defensively in a corner outfield spot, he makes some contact, he has a bit of power, he draws some walks, he runs fine – but he doesn’t have any real strengths, either.
You know who Saunders reminds me of? Dave Krynzel, just a few inches taller.
Is it possible that I’m totally wrong? Sure. I missed badly on Adam Jones when the M’s drafted him. I thought his future was going to be on the mound after he’d fail as a hitter. He proved me wrong. Saunders has a long ways to go before he does the same, though.
Dave, at one point you said that Baseball Prospectus didn’t know what they were doing when they had Jeremy Reed as high as their #2 prospect (2004). After checking out BP this year, is there anyone that you think stands out as ranked way too high/low?
Re books, I’d echo the recommendaton for David Duncan’s The Brothers K. It isn’t just about baseball, but baseball weaves throughout it, along with love, politics, family and living as a late twentieth century American. It’s one of my favorite novels.
There might not be any good cases where defense HAS made up for the bad offense.
Ok, then why don’t we stick Richie Sexson or Ben Broussard at catcher? Or why don’t the Red Sox stick Manny there?
Obviously defense counts for SOMETHING at C, or we wouldn’t see a bunch of no-hit guys play there (just like at SS and 2B). I guess the question becomes can a C make up 20-30 runs on defense in a season? If so, a PLAYER who’s +20 to +30 on offense is valuable… so the converse is valuable too.
Of all the positions on the field, catcher is the one where the defensive contribution is the hardest for a fan (or anyone else not on the field or in the dugout) to guage. IF the catcher is calling the game, that can make or break a pticher (see all the discussions about pitch selection lately). Yes, the pitcher can shake the catcher off, but this can be frustrating to both, as the confrontations between Freddy Garcia and Dan Wilson demonstrate. In addition to pitch selection,, there is also the matter of calling the location of the pitch. The catcher also has a role in setting the defense. These contributions can add (or subtract) runs that are hard to quantify.
Catchers also can more obviously save runs by blocking wild pitches with runners on base. A good block with a runner on third is worth a run. I think this is the posiiton where defense matters the most.
There is no evidence that catchers differ significantly in how they affect the game through pitch calling. See many studies by Woolner, others.
DMZ: I will look up the studies, but it seems counter to everything Dave has researched about Felix’s pitch selection. He is getting lit up because someone is calling for fastball after fastball. If that somebody is the cathcer, and theoretically it is, this definitely affects the game. So does calling pitches in a predictable pattern. But I will try to find the studies you mention.
Curious — any idea if Triunfel in High Desert is something that will last? Was it expected?