Second Half Suggestions
And with that 7-3 win over the A’s, the first half of the season comes to a very enjoyable end. The M’s drove a stake into the heart of the A’s playoff chances, creating even further separation from the wild card pack, and establishing themselves as the real contender to the big four. As the team now gets three days to regroup during the all-star break and prepare for a second half that will hopefully provide the first playoff race this team has seen in several years. The latter part of this season will go a long way in deciding the future of the Mariners organization - will Ichiro re-sign, does the front office get removed from their hot seats while retaining their jobs, and how close are they to taking the step towards perennial contender with this core base of talent?
Those questions become easier to answer if this team has a strong second half and makes the playoffs. However, as currently configured, the Mariners simply aren’t one of the four best teams in the American League. Los Angeles, Detroit, Cleveland, and Boston are all clearly better teams (even if the Angels aren’t playing like it right now), and the Mariners have some work to do to make up ground on quality competition. There are some definite weak points on this roster that need to be addressed in order to give the team the best possible chance of turning a solid first half into a real playoff run. Most of these, we’ve already discussed, but since we have three days without Mariner baseball, and I know you guys love your roster speculation threads, here’s my mid-season suggestions on how to upgrade this team and make it a legitimate contender.
1. Promote Adam Jones from Tacoma and make him the everyday left fielder.
There’s not a team in baseball poised to make a bigger internal improvement than the Mariners by simply promoting from within. The Mariners outfield defense has been a disaster, and Raul Ibanez is the main reason why. While not lacking in the effort department, he’s shown his age with a complete lack of range, and hamstring issues have simply compounded the fact that he can’t cover enough ground to be a major league quality defensive outfielder. Because of the way Safeco Field is aligned, left field is a vastly more important defensive position than right field, and having a premium defensive outfielder play next to Ichiro to swallow the balls hit into the LF-CF gap would give the Mariners a large competitive advantage.
How big of an upgrade would Jones’ glove in left be from Ibanez’s? Well, without getting all mathy, I can tell you that advanced defensive metrics have Ibanez’s defense costing the Mariners approximately 15 runs over the first half of the season compared to an average defensive left fielder. 15 runs below average! That makes him something like the worst defensive player in baseball not named Manny Ramirez. If Adam Jones is simply an average defensive left fielder, the Mariners should expect, at minimum, a 10 run second half improvement (Ibanez probably isn’t really a -30 defender over the course of a full season, so we regress his projected performance accordingly) simply by removing Ibanez from left field and replacing him with AJ.
Now, Adam Jones has made huge strides defensively while playing center field in Tacoma, and most scouting reports grade him out as a solid defensive center fielder right now. What happens when you take a solid defensive center fielder and stick him in left field at Safeco? Well, the Mariners did that for several years with Randy Winn, who was routinely rated as 10 to 15 runs above an average defensive left fielder while with the Mariners. Jones’ range now is superior to that of the 2003-2005 Randy Winn. Realistically, I think we should expect Jones to be something like 5 to 10 runs better than an average defensive left fielder during the second half of the season.
Combine Ibanez’s -10 with Jones +5 (and those are conservative rankings), you’re looking at a 15 run improvement on defense alone. To give you an idea of what 15 runs over half a season looks like, let’s scale it to ERA. Let’s take Miguel Batista’s current ERA, then subtract 15 runs per 90 innings and show you the new ERA as a reference point for what that kind of savings looks like in half a season.
Miguel Batista: 4.54 - 2.87
Replacing Raul Ibanez in left field with Adam Jones projects to have about the same run prevention impact on the team that trading Miguel Batista for Johan Santana would.
Let that sink in for a second.
The Mariners can, in one move, make a second half run prevention improvement equal to that of turning a #4 starter into a Cy Young winner.
And that’s just the defensive improvement! That doesn’t even factor in the possibility that Adam Jones becomes Seattle’s version of Ryan Braun (called up from Triple-A in May, currently hitting .342/.382/.645 as the #3 hitter for the first place Brewers) and gives the Mariners a significant offensive boost over the nothing performance they got from Jose Vidro in the first half.
This move has to happen. It’s such a monumental upgrade that the team cannot continue to ignore the tangible, real effects it would have on making the playoffs, and that’s what this second half has to be all about.
2. Do not trade for Matt Morris. Whatever you do, leave him alone.
I wrote this post before Mark Buehrle re-signed with the White Sox, and #2 was originally an advocation for the M’s to get a deal done for the Chicago lefty. Now that that’s not an option, I’m simply asking the organization to please, please, please not be fooled by the mirage that is Matt Morris’ ERA. I know that he’s a veteran, and he’s playoff tested, and the sparkly ERA makes it a trifecta of things the franchise usually looks for in a pitcher, but you guys usually pick sucky pitchers, so let’s try to not fall into the same trap that keeps bringing us bad pitchers at high costs again, okay?
Yes, the team needs another starter. I’ll figure out who I want that to be in a few days. But I know that I don’t want it to be Matt Morris. Please don’t trade for him. Please.
3. Option Brandon Morrow to Triple-A Tacoma, promote Kam Mickolio to Seattle.
For all the talk about the potential return of Mark Lowe, Mickolio may very well have the best arm of any guy in Tacoma and be in the best position to help the Mariners as a power right-handed reliever down the stretch. He’s 6′9, throws a 96 MPH four-seam fastball, has a sinking two-seamer and a cut fastball that keep left-handers off balance, and has dominated since the Mariners selected him in the 18th round last summer. Remember Brandon Morrow’s dominant May, where he threw 18 consecutive scoreless innings with simply an overpowering fastball? That’s Kam Mickolio right now, except Mickolio is a few inches taller and has better command.
Bring Mickolio up to work some low leverage innings in the old Jason Davis role and get his feet wet in the majors for a few weeks. By the time mid-August rolls around, if he’s made the proper adjustments and is pitching as well as I suspect he may, you have yet another power arm to put in front of J.J. Putz and get strikeouts from the right side in the 8th inning. Mickolio’s trial also buys Mark Lowe time to work on his arm strength and rust after a year off from pitching, and gives Morrow a chance to improve his command and breaking ball in a low stress environment. The six weeks both can spend down in Triple-A would give the Mariners a chance to evaluate their progress and potentially bring them back up at the end of August if they’d shown they’re ready to go.
Ideally, the team would head into the September stretch run with a bullpen of Putz-Sherrill-Mickolio-Green-O’Flaherty-Lowe/Morrow-Reitsma, giving them a variety of power arms from the left and right side and allowing the team to be extremely aggressive in removing struggling starting pitchers early in critical games.
And, really, there’s almost no downside to this move. If I’m wrong about Mickolio, and he doesn’t adjust well to the majors right away, you simply ship him back to Tacoma and promote Mark Lowe, giving him the spot the team had been reserving for him anyways. No harm, no foul.
4. Platoon Broussard, Ibanez, Guillen, Sexson, and Vidro.
With the Adam Jones promotion, the M’s would have three spots for five guys. Thankfully, two of them are left-handed, two are right-handed, and the other is a switch hitter, making for easy natural platoons and many interchangeable pieces. Guillen/Ibanez can run a platoon in right field, with Sexson/Broussard platooning at first base, and whichever of those two aren’t playing can rotate at DH with Jose Vidro. Vidro should get the least amount of playing time in these scenarios, essentially being limited to DH against lefties, with Sexson/Ibanez getting most of the DH time against right-handed pitching.
The M’s are shooting themselves in the foot by ignoring the huge platoon splits their veteran hitters are putting up. Raul Ibanez is hitting .258/.272/.315 against left-handed pitching. Jose Guillen is hitting .242/.306/.361 against right-handed pitching. Those are horrible marks, and both guys are consistently being put in the middle of the line-up against same-handed pitchers, despite the fact that they’re killing the team by being put into situations they simply don’t have the skills to succeed in.
An Ibanez/Guillen platoon would give the Mariners one of the more productive offensive right-fielders in baseball. Broussard getting at-bats in lieu of Vidro would also be an instant upgrade, and by rotating the five guys through the RF/1B/DH roles, you keep the banged up veterans more healthy by giving them partial days off and not forcing them to play the field everyday.
Manage the roster to put players in roles they are best suited to succeed in.
5. Restructure the batting orders to account for the roster moves.
The team’s line-up would have a different look to it with Adam Jones in it, and it needs a slight overhaul anyways. So, here are my proposed normal line-ups, with their OPS (as of Saturday, when I wrote this) vs LH/RH to the side.
Vs RHP:
1. Ichiro, CF, .860
2. Ibanez, RF, .819
3. Beltre, 3B, .800
4. Broussard, 1B, .808
5. Sexson, DH, .724
6. Johjima, C, .701
7. Lopez, 2B, .745
8. Jones, LF, (AAA - .938)
9. Betancourt, SS, .626
Vs LHP:
1. Ichiro, CF, .903
2. Betancourt, SS, .829
3. Guillen, RF, 1.117
4. Beltre, 3B, .817
5. Sexson, 1B, .730
6. Johjima, C, 1.094
7. Lopez, 2B, .648
8. Jones, LF, (AAA - .981)
9. Vidro, DH, .723
In both line-ups, the Mariners are grouping their good hitters at the top of the order, and getting power guys behind Ichiro to start driving him in. They’ve been wasting far too many chances with the powerless Jose Vidro hitting second and sticking Ibanez/Guillen in RBI spots against same-handed pitchers. This gets away from Hargrove’s “same line-up, everyday” approach, but hopefully John McLaren is smart enough to realize that’s a foolish way to run a ballclub. The other contenders don’t follow that belief, and there’s no evidence supporting the idea that guys perform better if they’re locked into a certain spot in the batting order. Put the best team on the field to beat that day’s starting pitcher.
After implementing all these moves, the team would have a stronger offense against both lefties and righties, a significantly improved defense that would have a tremendous positive impact on the pitching staff, and a bullpen that rivals any in baseball.
This is a roster that you can contend with, one that can give the Angels a run for the division and makes the Mariners legitimate wild-card contenders. Most of these moves should be relatively simple to pull off, and serve to set the team up better for both the stretch run as well as 2008 and beyond.
These are bold moves, and a significant reshaping of a team in a playoff race, but they’re the kind of moves that the organization needs to make. Don’t rest on your laurels - improve the roster and give us a winning team.
(And yes, you guys can use this thread to post your own trade/roster suggestions. It’s the only one you’re getting the rest of the year, so have fun.)
Over/under on how long before some FO picks up Dave Cameron in some capacity: 2.5 years.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:29 pm“Beyond the Buehrle trade, most of these moves should be relatively simple to pull off, and serve to set the team up better for both the stretch run as well as 2008 and beyond.”
You might want to edit that.
Now that he’s not available, are there any pitchers that you do advocate we go after? While our pitching is doing fine right now, I don’t trust it being this consistent for the rest of the season. I’d like to see another starter.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:35 pmsorry for the double-post (see #356 on the game thread) but why do we scale the defensive runs saved over 90 innings?
July 8th, 2007 at 4:36 pmAre we going to be able to trade any of these five guys for three positions?
July 8th, 2007 at 4:36 pmVidro?
Broussard?
Sexson?
Ibanez?
Guillen?
Now that he’s not available, are there any pitchers that you do advocate we go after?
Jamie Moyer actually makes some sense on a couple of levels, if you can get Pat Gillick to trade a veteran for a prospect for the first time in 143 years. I’ll figure something out in a few days, but right now, I’m not very impressed by the guys we know are available.
why do we scale the defensive runs saved over 90 innings?
That’s about how many innings you’d expect to get from a starting pitcher if you traded for him right now. A little less than half a season’s worth.
Are we going to be able to trade any of these five guys for three positions?
Nope.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:38 pm(emphasis added) Dave, I assume this conclusion is meant to reflect whatever rotation move their able to make . . . or the one you’ll suggest in the coming days. I have a feeling that Firebrand is getting sent down and HoRam is coming up. While either gets a boost from the improved defense, is there reason to think either would get more of a boost than the other?
July 8th, 2007 at 4:41 pmHmmm…re: 6, I guess I need to find another way to add emphasis other than
July 8th, 2007 at 4:42 pmI assume this conclusion is meant to reflect whatever rotation move their able to make . . . or the one you’ll suggest in the coming days.
I need to take that sentence out. That was written when the Buehrle suggestion was still valid.
While either gets a boost from the improved defense, is there reason to think either would get more of a boost than the other?
Feierabend’s a flyball guy, so he’d get more of a boost from the Jones-Ibanez switch. That said, he hasn’t looked like a major league starter in about three weeks, and he’s earned his ticket back to Tacoma. Horacio Ramriez isn’t any good, but they might as well throwing him out there until they figure out if they’re going to go with Baek or trade for a veteran.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:43 pmI’ll preface this by pointing out that by no means am I a baseball genius, just a big fan that wants the best for my team. That being said, with your “ideal” lineup against LHP, do we really want Vidro in at 9th? If Ichiro gets on base behind him, aren’t you severely limiting the speed that Ichiro brings to the basepaths? Great bit of writing, though, lots of great ideas.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:43 pmNot realistic at all as far as a platoon Jose Guillen. He has been “good” Guillen so far this year, while being put in the middle of the lineup (in place of Beltre) as an everyday player for most of the year. He is also for all intents and purposes in a contract year with options and buyouts with both the team and Guillen, and thus would not take kindly to losing over half his AB’s over the second half of the season.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:50 pmIf Ichiro gets on base behind him, aren’t you severely limiting the speed that Ichiro brings to the basepaths?
Over half a season, this would happen a lot less frequently than you’d think. But, you could flip Jones and Vidro if it became an issue.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:50 pmHe has been “good” Guillen so far this year.
Actually, he’s been Amazingly Awesome Guillen against lefties and Pretty Crappy Guillen against righties.
and thus would not take kindly to losing over half his AB’s over the second half of the season.
Tough. He’s paid to help the team win. If he doesn’t want to lose playing time against right-handers, he should have hit them better in the first half.
The M’s have been pandering to veteran players for far too long. If they want to win, they need to show some chutzpah and make the moves that will give them the best chance to do so.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:52 pm10. Yeah it would be hard (impossible) I think to get him to accept a platoon.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:55 pmIdeally, someone gets hurt and Jones solidifies his spot and playing time with a hot start. Then the injured party can be more easily forced into platoon.
Not wishing injury on anyone, but all 5 of those guys are on the wrong side of 30 and its a fairly good chance of happening if Oakland’s trainers got within spitting distance of the team this weekend.
Dave,
Everything you suggest makes perfect sense…on paper. What we don’t know is what it does to team chemistry.
How will veterans like Ibanez, Guillen, Vidro and Sexson react to losing at bats? How will the rest of the team react?
I don’t have those answers. Factoring in the human element is what they pay managers for.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:58 pmWinning begets chemistry.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:59 pm“The M’s have been pandering to veteran players for far too long. If they want to win, they need to show some chutzpah and make the moves that will give them the best chance to do so.”
I agree. I just don’t think the M’s management has enough guts to bench a fiery personality like Guillen against right-handers, when they given 301 AB’s to a “veteran presence” DH with 3 HR’s and 26 RBI’s.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:02 pmWhat we don’t know is what it does to team chemistry.
Here’s the thing - the guys in the clubhouse don’t know that either. I’ve never seen any club successfully predict team chemistry ahead of time.
How will veterans like Ibanez, Guillen, Vidro and Sexson react to losing at bats? How will the rest of the team react?
If the team is winning, the only guy there I’d be worried about is Guillen. And he’s actually the guy whose playing time I’d decrease the least. You can still play him 4-5 times a week and make the platoon work.
I don’t have those answers. Factoring in the human element is what they pay managers for.
Managers, in general, suck at this. Part of John McLaren’s job is to make sure everyone in the clubhouse is getting along as well as possible. Another part is putting the best team on the field that he possibly can. You can’t ignore the second responsibility just because it may clash with the first.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:02 pmHow will veterans like Ibanez, Guillen, Vidro and Sexson react to losing at bats?
It’s better ask how they would react to being in a pennant race — Seattle’s first in several years. If they react well, they get more at bats. If they don’t, they don’t. They’re paid to win, not to go off to a corner and suck their thumbs.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:03 pmjust don’t think the M’s management has enough guts…
Well, this is a post with suggestions from a guy who has nothing to do with the organization, and not a post about what I think the organization is actually going to do.
So, yea, I agree, these moves aren’t terribly likely. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t the moves the M’s should make, or that we shouldn’t point that out.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:04 pmDave, re your #5 answer about defensive runs saved.
It seems that your hypothesis is off. By dividing the 15 runs by 90 innings, you are essentially saying that Adam Jones will apply his defensive wizardry to one pitcher.
If this comparison were accurate, saving approximately a run per start pretty much turns an average pitcher into a guaranteed winner a la Randy Johnson–i. e., the team going from a 8-7 record when the pitcher starts to, say, 12-2. But more correctly, his 15 runs will be spread over 75+ starts, making a difference of ~.2 run per game.
I guess what I’m trying to reverse engineer here is the conversion of runs saved to wins. (See, I don’t even recall what it is named.) And then my point being that your example of Jones being equal to a Batista/Santana swap is perhaps a bit of a reach.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:04 pmBut if Jones would save 15 runs over the course of the 1st half, wouldn’t that be 15 runs divided by 85 * 9 innings? It’s not 15 runs per starting pitcher.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:07 pmIt seems that your hypothesis is off. By dividing the 15 runs by 90 innings, you are essentially saying that Adam Jones will apply his defensive wizardry to one pitcher.
No - I was giving the reader a reference point of what saving 15 runs over half a season looks like.
But more correctly, his 15 runs will be spread over 75+ starts, making a difference of ~.2 run per game.
15 runs is 15 runs. The runs to win conversion works the same whether they’re spread out over 75 games or over 15 starts.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:07 pmYou beat me to it puppet.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:08 pm19: I dunno, it seems like it’s getting pretty obvious that Vidro is an unproductive DH. The Jones call-up might happen.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:08 pmI worded it poorly, apparently, if you guys didn’t understand what I was trying to say. I’ll make it more clear in the post.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:09 pmOK, I understand, Dave. I thought you were saying that he would effectively reduce each starting pitcher’s ERA by that much. Gotcha.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:09 pmHow will veterans like Ibanez, Guillen, Vidro and Sexson react to losing at bats? How will the rest of the team react?Good teams usually have good chemistry because they win their fair share of baseball games. As an Oakland A’s fan, it has always made me laugh the past few years hearing announcers and writers talk about what great chemistry the A’s have had because of “character guys” like Mark Kotsay. When a team is always in the playoffs or competing for a spot in the playoffs, chemistry will typically follow.Love the blog Dave, great insight.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:09 pmSorry about the nitpick, by the way. Good analysis.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:10 pmI still don’t understand… it seems like “The runs to win conversion works the same whether they’re spread out over 75 games or over 15 starts” means the same thing as “The runs to win conversion works the same whether they’re spread out over 75 games or over 15 games“, which is false. What am I missing?
July 8th, 2007 at 5:14 pmi dont really care anything about lineups or anything
JUST BRING ADAM JONES UP
i would just completely use vidro as a bench player
Starting lineup, regardless of pitcher
1. Ichiro CF
2. Jones LF
3. Guillen RF
4. Ibanez DH
5. Sexson 1B
6. Beltre 3B
7. Johjima C
8. Lopez 2B
9. Betancourt
i believe a lineup needs to be cemented and constant. There is no continuity when the lineup is constantly changing.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:14 pmI would just promte from within, I don’t see a pitcher out there that is available that can significantly help us. I do like the Moyer idea if Gillick is willing to return the favor.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:15 pmWhat am I missing?
You’re overestimating the value of runs in clusters. Adam Jones being a +15 defender over 75 games is just as valuable (actually, I could argue more valuable) than Miguel Batista going +15 runs in his 90 second half innings.
I’m not sure why you don’t agree with that statement, but you should.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:18 pm“i believe a lineup needs to be cemented and constant. There is no continuity when the lineup is constantly changing.”
This is an example of begging the question, by the way.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:19 pmi believe a lineup needs to be cemented and constant. There is no continuity when the lineup is constantly changing.
Years of historical evidence shows that you’re pretty much believing this on faith, with nothing to support your belief. The Indians and Tigers, who run wildly varied line-ups depending on pitcher handedness, are doing just fine, I’d say.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:21 pmDave,
#22
After reading that part a couple times, I did understand that you were showing the ERA reduction of any one pitcher, not all of them.
But (after doing the search I should have in the first place):
“As a general rule, ten runs saved adds a win to the team.”
(From baseballgraphs.com)
I doubt a Santana-like pitcher is only one game better than Batista.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:21 pmI don’t disagree, I just didn’t understand. I do now, I think. (Part of what I was missing is that the comparison is between runs prevented by an everyday player and by a pitcher, right?)
July 8th, 2007 at 5:22 pmI doubt a Santana-like pitcher is only one game better than Batista.
Over half a season, about a win and a half (15 runs) is about right.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:23 pmContinuity is overrated. I hope they bring up Adam Jones to do something other than rot on the bench. It’s such an obvious move that I can’t see why it hasn’t happened yet.
You’d think it’d be obvious enough to even get past how much this organization overrates “proven veterans”.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:24 pmVidro is hitting .245 and slugging .295 with RISP. That’s the type of stat that this front office looks at.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:25 pmBoston scores runs and they run out different lineups all the time. Ortiz and Manny are the only fixtures. If we had those two I wouldn’t move em around either.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:30 pmFactoring in the human element is what they pay managers for.
The Times had an article (Larry Stone, but ignore that for a minute) on Grover’s abrubt resignation and it had a quote from Earl Weaver.
So, Ibanez isn’t Brooks Robinson, and neither are Sexson, Vidro or Guillen, but the sentiment’s the same. Telling a veteran, maybe even a really neat guy too, that he’s losing playing time can’t be any fun.
Could it be that Grover knew something was going to happen and he didn’t have the heart to be the hatchet-man?
July 8th, 2007 at 5:32 pmDave,
“Over half a season, about a win and a half (15 runs) is about right.”
Okay then, thanks, teach. It gives me a better perspective of the importance of a pitcher vs. an every day player. –and how useful tools such as ‘run saved/created’ and win shares can be for comparing disparate positions.
p. s. Thanks for your answers and of course, your terrific article.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:32 pmPart of what I was missing is that the comparison is between runs prevented by an everyday player and by a pitcher, right?
I think so, yea. In any single game, the pitcher will usually have the greatest impact on a team’s chances of winning and losing. However, any one starting pitcher can only start about 20% of the team’s games, so the position players make up in quantity what they lose out in quality.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:33 pmI don’t think sitting Guillen against RHP is smart, Guillen has hit RHP better over the few years than he has LHP. He is likely to progress to the mean i the second half.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:42 pmHey Dave…..
Are you concerned at all about Jones BB/K rate, and what that might translate to in the majors? As you note, his biggest immediate contribution would be on defense, but I worry that if he struggles at the plate right away, he’ll either get benched/sent down after 2 weeks, or take those struggles with him into the outfield. Wouldn’t that hurt his development?
And speaking of development, Triunfel in High Desert– couldn’t that lead to some bad hitting habits for someone who is allergic to walks at his age?
Thanks.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:48 pmWhat is this ERA you’re talking about?
July 8th, 2007 at 5:53 pmthe bottom of those lineups look like a potential black hole, considering yuni’s recent performance and Lopez’s second half slump last year, not to mention Vidro’s all around ineptness.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:57 pmDave:
“Part of John McLaren’s job is to make sure everyone in the clubhouse is getting along as well as possible. Another part is putting the best team on the field that he possibly can. You can’t ignore the second responsibility just because it may clash with the first.”
Agreed, but can you ignore first responsibility? Maybe Raul is the most popular guy in the clubhouse. Maybe McLaren knows he will go nuts if he isn’t playing Left. Maybe McLaren knows that pissing off Raul will cause problems with several other guys.
I am not arguing against the moves you suggest - they all make perfect sense. All I am saying is there are other factors here that we know nothing about because we aren’t in the clubhouse and on the plane with these guys.
July 8th, 2007 at 5:59 pmthe bottom of those lineups look like a potential black hole, considering yuni’s recent performance and Lopez’s second half slump last year, not to mention Vidro’s all around ineptness.
I agree on Vidro, but why use Lopez’ 2nd half last year and Betancourt’s recent performance as your basis for projection? Couldn’t you just as easily say, if you’re going to cherrypick small samples, that Lopez and Betancourt’s early hot hitting this year suggests that they’ll regress to the mean and do better in the 2nd half?
July 8th, 2007 at 6:01 pmAt this point, I don’t really care about whether the guys in the clubhouse are happy or not. They’re paid a lot of money to play a game.
I want to see them recognize that they are there to win baseball games, and not let their egos get in the way of that happening.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:11 pmVery interesting suggestions and while I feel the #1 priority the M’s have is the signing of Ichiro to extension contract however any move that can help step up winning making that a reality I’m for it.
Call up Adam Jones to be the LF starter:
Makes absolute logical sense both offensively and defensively.Best way for Jones to get accustom to MLB pitching and his best shot at success at the MLB level.
Don’t trade for Matt Morris:
I fully agree his present ERA and success is NL related.Quite frankly look for a late July letdown with dead arm by then.
With Buehrle off the block unless an SP of the level of a Zambrano or a Haren comes available from one of bottomfeeders forget trading go with what we have in house like Lehr for example.
Option Morrow to AAA T-town in favor of Kam Mickolio:
Quite frankly I can’t agree completely here tho I like the idea of senting Morrow down so he can work on his as it’s put “wildness in the K zone” cause if Morrow has a flaw it’s his tendency to BB hitters for that reason.
I’m not that familiar with Mickolio so I can’t say how good or bad he is so Ihave a concern how well he’d fill in for Morrow and fit in with the chemistry the M’s have there.
Frankly I want Lowe in the pen instead of injury prone Reitsma as soon as Lowe is ready to return.
Platoon Ibanez/Guillen (RF) Sexson/Broussard (1stB)
and either Ibanez/Sexson/Vidro at DH:
If and should the Jones move be made then I wholeheartly agree with the platoon in RF of Ibanez and Guillen.
This would insure both men will be rested and fresh for the push months of August and Sept.
However I don’t see the logic of the three way DH platoon since Vidro is a switch hitter.To me the logical platoon is Sexson/Vidro if there is to be one.
I fully agree with the Sexson/Broussard platoon at 1stB gives the M’s a extra LHB when needed.
Again gets Broussard playing time and gives Sexson needed days off to care for any minor aches and pains to stay healthy and fresh.
As to the batting orders you suggest to reflect the changes are excellent examples to work from and should influence lineups in second half.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:17 pmI believe that the success a hitter has againist a given SP needs to be a factor as well no matter which side of the plate he hits (RH or LH).
M’s hopefully everyday 2007 second half left fielder had an OK day at the office today:
3-4 with 2 HR’s, a double, and 4 RBI’s!
He now has 21 HR’s, 21 2B’s, 5 3B’s and 72 RBI’s.
He might be pretty good.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:20 pmI was just comparing in my head a few minutes ago that the Adam Jones upgrade is a lot like the Ryan Braun situation. The Brewers were getting nothing out of their 3B platoon so they decided to pull the trigger and the kid has done nothing but prove he deserves to be up here, putting up All-Star caliber numbers.
I’d like to wake up on Wednesday morning to find out it’s been done.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:23 pmDave,
Long time listener, first time caller. I agree that bring up AJ seems like a “no brainer” mostly because of his speed and hopefully defense. There is considerable risk involved however.
AJ is now batting in a very hitter friendly environment. The parks are bandboxes and the few decent starting pitchers were promoted last month.
He strikes out A LOT! He came up last year after a hot AAA start and “tanked” offensively and defensively. There may be more pressure this year, pennant race and all. It will be good to see what he is made off, I am just not quite as optimistic as others.
Like Bob Whitsett, I am not a chemistry major but breaking up a veteran line up in the middle of a hot streak will have consequences. Everything about Guillen’s history suggests he will not be happy and that he is very disruptive when he is not happy. He could end up DFA’d, it has happened before.
I think Ibanez, along with Putz, are the leaders of this club - taking AB’s away from your leader could backfire. I have to agree the Guillen/Ibanez tandem would be a dangerous right field combo (defensively, too!).
I certainly understand the M’s “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” outlook but on balance think he needs to come up and play. Maybe just not everyday.
Too bad about Beurhle I thought he might be the missing link.
Sexson looks completely lost at the plate. I am disappointed I have not seen more Broussard at first vs. right handers in the first days of the Mclaren era.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:28 pmDave, any more thought on dealing Wlad to the Twinks for Scott Baker? Would you still do that?
July 8th, 2007 at 6:28 pmDave,
Re: Mickolio
I had meant to ask this during the Future 40 thread, but this seems like a good second chance. Do you know the story of how we got a talent like that in the 18th round? What caused all the other teams’ scouts to miss? Was it that he came out of an obscure program that no one else was scouting? Did he improve a ton this year? Whenever a guy that talented and that projectable falls that far in the draft, it seems like there’s always a great story of a scout who stuck his neck out. (The Pujols story is kind of like that, and the Piazza story is just funny.) Do you know the Mickolio scouting backstory?
July 8th, 2007 at 6:29 pmOne question:
Burke has been a great back-up catcher so far offensively. With only 60 ABs it is hard to determine how much he is capable of, but if he really is as good (or nearly as good) as the numbers show so far, should he get more chances at the plate? (Maybe at DH) Obviously there are already too many 1B/DH types so maybe there just isn’t space for him other than as a backup catcher, but it seems like kind of a waste of a good offensive player.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:37 pmIsn’t Tacoma a pitchers park? Jones’ home/away splits are good and better. .909 and 1.018.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:42 pmAt this point the only concerns are the K/BB. We can afford some K’s, just not anymore DPs.
Also, 1.450 OPS w/risp. Wow.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:43 pmAre you concerned at all about Jones BB/K rate, and what that might translate to in the majors?
Not really, no. I’ve said all along that I expect Jones would hit something like .270/.330/.450 in the majors right now. Even if he struggles to .250/.300/.400, that’s essentially equal offensive production to what they’re getting out of Vidro at the moment, and the defensive upgrade still stands.
And, obviously, there’s potential for him to not struggle and pull a Ryan Braun.
He came up last year after a hot AAA start and “tanked” offensively and defensively.
Adam Jones, 2006, AAA: .287/.342/.484
Adam Jones, 2007, AAA: .309/.377/.585
He’s not the same player now that he was a year ago.
Like Bob Whitsett, I am not a chemistry major but breaking up a veteran line up in the middle of a hot streak will have consequences.
Ask the Brewers if they’re happy they replaced Tony Graffanino with Ryan Braun, then put Braun in the #3 hole after three games.
Dave, any more thought on dealing Wlad to the Twinks for Scott Baker? Would you still do that?
I still would, but I doubt the Twins would make that move now that they’ve committed to Baker as part of their rotation.
Do you know the story of how we got a talent like that in the 18th round?
I don’t know the whole story, no. I’ll get it eventually.
Burke has been a great back-up catcher so far offensively.
It’s a fluke. A nice fluke, but a fluke nonetheless.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:46 pmThe Yankees are famous for taking veterans with big contracts in exchange for prospects. Also, they need a firstbasemen and despite all reason, seem to still think they can get into the playoffs. I think we need to give them one of our firstbasemen. I don’t care a whole lot which one. Offer them their choice of Richie or Ben for the best prospect they’ll give us. Ideally, it’d be Joba Chamberlain or Dellin Betances, but I’d take just about anybody. And I’d throw in Vidro if they’ll take him. God, I’d love to never see Vidro in Mariner blue again.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:46 pmThere is no way Brian Cashman makes a deal like that, especially not for one of their higher profile and more projectable arms. They’re not going to sell the farm for a Richie Sexson type of 1B. Maybe, MAYBE, for Mark Teixiera. But even then, I doubt it. It’s seeming more and more like the Yankees are content to keep their pieces.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:49 pmI was wondering how long it would take someone to suggest trading Sexson to the Yankees, and assuming they’d give us something of value to boot.
Here’s a hint - if you don’t want them, other teams don’t either.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:50 pmIf NYY histhe salary, I’d be happy with that. I think that’s the absolute best you could do.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:58 pmMaybe we could trade Sexson and Vidro for Griffey?
*head explodes*
Relying on other GMs to bail you out of your poor roster construction decisions is not such a great plan for success.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:08 pmWhat an odd season — what, with the A’s and Yankees looking like sellers.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:15 pmAfter watching an obviously crippled Sexson play all 9 innings today, I’d be shocked if they go with some of the more creative approaches (platooning).
July 8th, 2007 at 7:32 pmGosh, I’m going to break the thread rules and not say anything about the roster moves (since I was suggesting platoons and stacking the lineup with LHB/RHB a few days ago)… but I have to point this out.
The M’s have 22 games left out of 77 remaining against clubs directly in front of them for competition for the two playoff spots they could get (LAA, DET, CLE). That’s 28% of the schedule. Oh yeah, they have a home series against Boston (not directly relevant for their competition, since Boston is nearly a mortal lock to win that division, barring a collapse of near historic proportions, but relevant as a potential playoff preview).
We’ve got a lot of exciting baseball left, folks (including 4 games in 3 days in late September that could easily decide a playoff spot, the Seattle-Cleveland series, AND a Safeco doubleheader, a very rare beast indeed). Enjoy it, because it’s like being at an oasis after trekking through the dry desert of 2004-2006.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:33 pmI can’t see Gillick even considering trading Moyer so long as the Phils are with a series sweep of the wild card.
It’s definitely a bubble market for pitching right now, and that worries me that Bavasi is going to overpay for someone like Morris.
Thing is, if King Felix is King Felix and Washburn keeps pitching well, the other three guys probably won’t matter — so long as Jones is up.
I’m still very skeptical of this team. They just don’t look good on paper and seem like they’re just around the corner from the long losing streak. But who knows? 85 could win the division.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:35 pmRe Jamie Burke:
In 14 minor league seasons, he has a lifetime OPS of 730. Barring chemical enhancement I think we can assume he hasn’t discovered the fountain of youth at age 35.
He’s always been an OK minor league hitter and he’s done a really nice job as the backup. We can all feel good about his story, but there’s no reason to think he can be more than he’s been.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:37 pmI’m still very skeptical of this team. They just don’t look good on paper and seem like they’re just around the corner from the long losing streak. But who knows? 85 could win the division.
IMO, replace Ellison with Jones and it makes the team on the field and the bench better (Switch hitter Vidro to bench), and it’s pretty good on paper. If we throw another starter (Anybody better than Feierabend, Baek, and Ho Ram) in there to go with Felix-Wash-Batista-Weaver-New Guy, that’s not too bad when you play half your games at the Safe.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:44 pmI can’t see Gillick even considering trading Moyer so long as the Phils are with a series sweep of the wild card.
Thing is, that might not be the case by July 31. If the Phillies are 7-8 games out in the division and wild card (which isn’t all that improbable), the Phillies are basically where the Mariners were last year. In fact, they’re pretty close right NOW to where the M’s were at last year’s ASB- a team loitering around .500 and barely in the race.
Here’s another interesting data point from last year: the best 5 AL teams at the ASB last year:
DET
CHW
BOS
NYY
TOR
The best 5 teams AFTER the ASB in the AL:
MIN
OAK
NYY
LAA
TOR
Note only two teams were in both lists, and one of them (Toronto) was barely over .500 in the second half (38-36).
This doesn’t seem to be that unusual, with a quick glance at 2005 and 2004. A couple of teams are going to likely to drop off the pace, and a surprise team is going to make a run from being .500 to being a contender. I’m hoping the M’s aren’t one of the ones who drop out.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:58 pmDave
In response to what you said at 63, I like Sexson. He starts cold, but I think by the end of this season, he’ll bat .250 with over 30 homers and 100 RBIs. Plus, he’s a big walk and power guy. I think his OPS will be well over .800 and wouldn’t be surprised if he comes up around .900.
I also like Broussard. He has not been given much of a shot at lefties, but he hits righties very well and is an excellent platoon player. He might even be a solid everyday player if given a chance.
Your statement “Here’s a hint - if you don’t want them, other teams don’t either” is massively incorrect. I want them both. I think they should both start and Vidro should be placed on the DL with a terminal case of badness. If we had spots for both of them, I would play them both happily. The only reason I’d suggest trading either of them is that we have both of them and Ibanez. That puts three guys in two spots, which I think is ridiculous. We’re stuck with Vidro. He’ll die a Mariner. I think the same is true for Ibanez (who I thought we should’ve traded last year). Broussard and Sexson are good players with trade value. I think someone will take them. I don’t want much in return. Just a mediocre prospect and a roster spot for Adam Jones…
July 8th, 2007 at 8:00 pmI’m still very skeptical of this team. They just don’t look good on paper and seem like they’re just around the corner from the long losing streak. But who knows? 85 could win the division.
Yeah, DW, I hear ya. However, Felix pitching pretty well the rest of the way + upgraded defense in OF with Jones + platooning some good offensive performers would help a lot in the second half, I think.
The way I see it now, this team has the best offense in the division (without anyone being really OMG terrible- Vidro’s bad but he’s not a black hole like Hillenbrand, Cruz, Laird or Kendall), and a very, VERY good bullpen. The weak point is defense plus any starter not named Felix (basically, it’s a staff of defense-dependent pitchers behind him who can be had by good hitting teams), plus as it’s configured right now, a lineup that’s too right-handed. Jones and platooning (and swapping out Vidro’s ABs for Jones) all address the major weaknesses.
I suppose the possibility exists that the Veteran Starter would help the team for the stretch run, but that’s sort of another post, innit?
July 8th, 2007 at 8:14 pmAre the Marlins going to ask for an utterly ridiculous amount in return for Dontrelle Willis? He’s not that good anymore, but he’s not terrible. If the Marlins treat him like the mediocre player that he is, he might be worth getting. I bet that’s not how it’s gonna go though. The Marlins’ll shop him like he’s God and he’s just not.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:14 pmWillis just isn’t that good. He’s certainly not worth the price that it would take. Over…. rated.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:16 pmI am not the most knowledgeable on the subject, but it looks like Wlad Balentien puts up just as good if not better numbers than Jones. Although his defense may not be as good and his K ratio is a bit high, why isn’t he a legitimate option as an everyday RF? And if not right now, how far is he away?
July 8th, 2007 at 8:19 pm68 - has it been confirmed that it’s a doubleheader and not a day/night?
July 8th, 2007 at 8:44 pmWhen I think about platooning Guillen, I remember this story:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2003643787_difficult01.html
Given his proven ability to create disruptions wherein one has to dispose of him, there are definite elements of risk to such a plan.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:47 pm73 - Richie Sexson does not have trade value. If you’re wondering why Dave hasn’t responded to your post it’s because this subject has been covered on this site to the point of exhaustion.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:57 pmI agree with all 5 of Dave’s suggestions.
That said, the math behind the Raul Ibanez’ -15 runs / half season was not presented, and it doesn’t seem plausible. In earlier posts, we have seen that, in terms of winning, pitching accounts for approximately 40%, hitting accounts for 50%, and defense for about 10%. Thus, defense accounts for approximately 20% of the runs given up by a team. After today’s game, the Mariners have given up 407 runs. The left fielder’s “share” of those runs should be something like 1/9 of 20% of 407, or 9 runs. With all due respect to Dave, and Safeco Field notwithstanding, replacing Raul Ibanez with an average left fielder seems very unlikely to save anything remotely close to 15 runs.
Should the M’s upgrade defensively at left field? Absolutely. And while I don’t doubt that Dave’s analysis is true to the model he’s working with, my 30 years of mathematical modeling experience tell me something is very wrong about some of the assumptions that went into that model.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:01 pmThe Kid he’s been brought up a lot, and the author’s consesus is that he’s about as good with the bat, but is (at best) a tolerable first baseman and most likely a DH. Positions that don’t really help us right now, except as trade bait.
We could take a risk on either of them, but the one who can make our defense instantly better, instead of even more of a convoluted mess, is the obvious choice.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:06 pmThe obvious solution is to release Vidro, and eat his bloated salary, and admit that the whole idea of a mediocre hitting middle infielder with bad legs somehow becoming a servicable DH was misguided at best.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:11 pmThat said, the math behind the Raul Ibanez’ -15 runs / half season was not presented, and it doesn’t seem plausible.
Read this, this, and this for starters.
The defensive models I’m working with are fine.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:20 pm1000N,
You’re just not thinking about it correctly. You can’t just arbitrarily say the left fielder is responsible for 1/9 of 407 runs. The math for figuring out how many runs he’s cost them is pretty easy. You can use RZR to show that he’s only made outs on 76.6% of the balls in his zone, and only made outs on 20 balls outside of his zone all year. Then you contrast those with your average left fielder. Figure out how many total balls were hit in his zone and you know how many outs he’s cost the team. From there you can figure out the number of runs.
I’ll use Shannon Stewart as an example of an average LF. He gets to 86.7 balls in his zone and has made 25 plays outside of his zone. Ibanez has had 124 balls in his zone this year. That extra 10% would mean about 13 less outs so far this year, plus the extra 5 outs made outside the zone. We are up to 18 extra outs.
I’m not sure of the exact formula to convert outs into runs, but I’m sure you can do it. I’m not even sure that is the way Dave calculated his -15 runs, but it does show how it is possible.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:21 pmAJ…….2 more HRs tonight and a double. He is ready.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:25 pm//puts asbestos suit on…
Okay, since we’re talking platoons — we’d probably suffer a little bit defensively, but Willie Bloomquist could start at second a few times at least, depending on the lefty pitcher. He’s currently OPSing .877 vs. lefties this year (including a SLG over .500), and has shown a decent abilty to randomly pwn good lefty pitchers.
Okay torch ahead! Fry me, Blow!
///after the last flamethrower runs out of gas, peels off remainder of asbestos suit…
July 8th, 2007 at 9:48 pm“Read this, this, and this, for starters.
The defensive models I’m working with are fine.”
There’s practically no bigger fan of mathematical / statistical modeling in the world than me, and I’ve read the three articles you suggest. I admitted in my first post that those models would surely show that Raul Ibanez would be -15 runs relative to average.
What I’m suggesting is that when models show results like that, they need to be looked at more carefully. Here’s a simple way to look at it that suggests those models may be overvaluing defensive contributions somewhat:
As of today, the fewest number of runs given up in the majors is San Diego’s 298, and the most is Texas’ 480 (naturally). That’s a difference of 182 runs which is the total difference between the very best combination of pitching and defense in the majors and the very worst. Empirically, pitching will account for about 80% of that difference, so the remaining 36 runs should be the defensive difference, the left field share being about 4 runs. Of course, this isn’t quite right, because even Texas has decent defenders, and not everyone who plays for the Padres is a gold glover, so the 182 run difference is actually the sum of the contributions of the pitchers and defenders on each team. Even so, the models that Dave is using are putting poor Raul at -4 x the average total variance for a left fielder. This is statistically VERY implausible. You’d have to put someone like me out there to get anywhere near that level of defensive damage to a team.
I’m pretty sure there’s going to be some significant refinement to those defensive models in the years to come. In the meantime, please note that I’m only quibbling with the magnitude of the -15, not with the trend that it suggests. I’m all in favor of upgrading the M’s left field defense ASAP.
July 8th, 2007 at 9:51 pmI’m not sure where you are coming up with the basis of two of the assumptions you’re making:
-80% of run prevention is pitching? Across the board? Really?
-You can divide the “difference” in run prevention evenly across the entire defensive field? In other words, you’re saying that the pitcher’s fielding (i.e. not his pitching itself) accounts for just as much run prevention as that of the center fielder?
Those are pretty bold claims to make without any attempt to show your work.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:01 pmHmm… let’s do some lists of teams who are out of it, who they may be willing to trade, and who we want (starting pitching only):
Out of it:
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
KC
Chi-Sox
Texas
Washington
Florida
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinati
Houston
San Francisco
Maybe out of it:
Oakland
New York Yankees
Toronto
Philadelphia
Players (maybe) up for trade:
Tampa Bay - Hard to say
Who we’d want - None. Some of their pitchers might be available, but the ones we want wont be and the ones that are suck.
Baltimore - Daniel Cabrera(?)
Who we’d want - Eric Bedard, but he aint going anywhere. I wonder about Cabrera; more specifically I wonder how long they’ll keep that experiment going. I’m not sure I’d want him anyway.
Kansas City - Odalis Perez, Scott Elarton, John Thomson, Brandon Duckworth
Who we’d want - I think I meant Thompson. Anyway, raise your hand if you’re particularly interested in any of these guys. Me either.
Chi-Sox - Jose Contreras, John Garland, Javier Vazquez
Who we’d want - I don’t know if the rumored Sox Fire Sale is as wide open as believed, but you’d have to think that Chicago would want to get rid of some of the higher priced ones, which is basically everybody. However, Contreras sucks and so does Garland. That leaves Vazquez, who might be the only one who could actually help us be a better team.
Texas - Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy(?)
Who we’d want - Talk about a pitching staff that could benefit from a change of venue. Millwood’s groundballs are down this year, and his walks are up, but his K-rate is still solid and I think he’s getting a little unlucky, but may not be worth the risk considering his contract. McCarthy might be a flameout, but get him out of that ballpark and see what happens. Padilla sucks.
Washington - Not even going to speculate
Who we’d want - Shawn Hill maybe, but I doubt he’s available.
Cincinati - Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, Bronson Arroyo(?)
Who we’d want - Harang. Cheap, effective, but would be costly. I’d say no to the other three, though Kyle Lohse might be worth a look.
Houston - Woody Williams, Jason Jennings(?)
Who we’d want - Jennings. He was an interesting idea in offseason but we didn’t get him. I’d still take a try with him. Williams needs to be avoided at all costs.
San Francisco - Barry Zito, Matt Morris
Who we’d want - None. Oh and don’t tell me he wouldn’t try trading Zito to some fool if he could. Right now I think they want out of that deal REALLY badly, but there isn’t one GM stupid enough to take Zito now.
Pittsburgh - Tony Armas Jr, Shawn Chacon
Who we’d want - Pat Maholm, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny. Fat chance. I’m starting to wonder about Zach Duke, though. I don’t think he was ever that good, but what a horrid crash and burn he has been.
St Louis - Who cares?
Who we’d want - See above.
Florida - Dontrelle Willis, Byung Kim, who knows?
Who we’d want - 2 months ago, Byung Kim to replace Weaver / Ramirez / Baek. Now? He wouldn’t help us out that much. Willis is a nightmare waiting to happen to someone. I hope to GOD it isn’t us.
Oakland - Everybody
Who we’d want - I don’t think Billy Beane knows the meaning of the word “untradable”, as he has always been willing to trade whomever he feels like whenever he feels like as long as it benefits his team. That being said, guys like Harden and Haren will be so costly we’d have no farm system left, and guys like DiNardo, Kennedy, and Gaudin aren’t that useful. That leaves Joe Blanton, who I wouldn’t take after today’s brouhaha, but as an innings eating strike thrower who doesn’t walk a lot of guys, he’s a useful dude. Just not sure, again, I want to deal with William Beane.
New York Yankees - I haven’t the foggiest
Who we’d want - I’d take a chance on a healthy Mussina, but I’m not going anywhere near Andy Pettitte right now. Sure, groundball guy, but K’s are way down, walks are up… no thanks.
Toronto - Tomo Ohka, Josh Towers, Victor Zambrano
Who we’d want - None of those guys.
Philadelphia - Stand Pat Gillick trade? Hah!
Who we’d want - Cole Hamels. I didn’t say it was guys we could get, I just said guys “who we’d want”. Dave said Moyer, I dunno about that. Lieber? Meh. Adam Eaton? Hell no.
Thoughts.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:06 pmSaw Mickolio throw on Friday here in Portland, 3 strong innings with 4 K’s albeit against a Beavers squad without a whole lot to offer with the bats. His fastball sat at 94-95-96, low in the zone with what looked from my seat like a good bit of movement. He had another fastball that I guess could’ve been the cutter that was 90-91. And what’s better, he didn’t walk anybody.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:07 pmI think second half, and I see Miller, Bonderman, Rogers and Verlander looming.
I just want something to happen that can deal with that line-up.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:11 pmI have to agree with 1000N - the Ibanez/Santana comparison doesn’t pass the common sense test.
If we (charitably) assume Bautista is an average pitcher, if we dropped him on a team with an average offense/defense/bullpen, we would assume his team would win half of his games. If we assume he had 18 starts (to use a round number) in the second half of the season, we would expect his team to win 9 games.
I think it’s reasonable to assume a top pitcher on an average team would see wins in two-thirds of their starts. I don’t believe that’s too far off what experience tells us has been the case - certainly it’s on par with what top pitchers have experienced in the first half of this year. That would translate to 12 wins in 18 starts. In that case, Santana is worth 3 wins over a half of a season - double what is being implied.
If the numbers 85 came up with are reasonable, we would have to believe 18 extra hits (mostly singles) would translate into 15 runs…which I think is a stretch by any measure.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t move Ibanez out of left, but I think the comparison is a bit unfair.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:22 pm“-80% of run prevention is pitching? Across the board? Really?”
Yes, really.
“-You can divide the “difference” in run prevention evenly across the entire defensive field? In other words, you’re saying that the pitcher’s fielding (i.e. not his pitching itself) accounts for just as much run prevention as that of the center fielder?”
I’m pretty sure you’re right that you can’t divide evenly. The first baseman isn’t nearly as important as the shortstop. Then again, the left fielder isn’t nearly as important as the shortstop, center fielder, second baseman, third baseman, or catcher, either, even at Safeco Field. He might be more important than the first baseman, though. I thought I was being generous by assigning 1/9 of total defensive value to the left fielder.
If you wanted to point out the obvious flaw in my analysis, you should have mentioned that the 182 run difference was summed up over a whole bunch of pluses and minuses for BOTH teams. Thus, to make the total differ by 182, there had to be some much larger than average swings in there. After all, even San Diego has below average players in some positions, and Texas does have some above average.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:23 pmHoly crap. I had no idea that a baseball was smart enough to know that it was a precious commodity that must be shared and not hogged. Ichiro has not learned this lesson. The ball inherently knows that it must be evenly distributed among all fielders equally. 1/9th of the time it must go directly in front of the catcher. 1/9th of the time it must go right back to it’s thrower, the pitcher. 1/9th of the time it must go to that usually large, uncoordinated 1b man. 1/9th of the time it must go to the eh, not quite ss material 2b man. 1/9th of the time it goes to the best infielder of the bunch, the SS. No, not that SS. 1/9th of the time it must go the H.C. Hot Corner. 1/9th of the time is goes to the cannon arm, RF. 1/9th of the time is goes to the lone ranger, the CF. 1/9th of the time goes to the suckfest, the LF. Amazing responsibility the ball has. It must perform its job each and every day, always making sure it goes to each and every fielder an equal number of times. Otherwise it makes mathematical geniuses such as 1000n look like a jerk. That would be unfortunate.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:24 pmMy analysis can be repaired by assuming that the ENTIRE difference between San Diego and Texas in run prevention can be accounted for by pitching, i.e. that the two teams are equivalent defensively. Since the difference between the best pitching and the worst pitching is 182 runs, that would say that the difference between the best defense and the worst would be about 1/4 of that, again using the 80-20 split. This would be about 46 runs.
That ups the defensive difference in left field from 4 to 5 runs from best to worst, but that’s nowhere near 15.
I’ve been on my soapbox for too long this evening. Dave’s conclusion is still right on the money: The Mariners can and should do better defensively in left field.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:33 pmhcoguy: If you want to think that the left fielder is more important than 1/9 of the total defense of a time, be my guest.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:34 pmEr, I mean team.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:35 pmActually, in Safeco Field, left field is one of the most important defensive positions, due to the way the park is constructed. So for any team that plays half of its games there, you’re probably pretty heavily underestimating the importance of that position.
Am I really right?
Yes, really.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:36 pmWow, that seems like completely unnecessary sarcasm.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:41 pmNo, you’re not right. LF is more important in SafeCo than in other parts, but it’s still not one of the most important.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:43 pmI’m not specifying LF as easier or harder, just saying that someone that deals with mathematical absolutes is awfully quick to assume the ball in play distribution is equal. I would guess that fewer balls go directly to the catcher and pitcher than everywhere else but that is just a guess. According to PO and Assist data on hardballtimes.com. LF sees slightly fewer putouts than RF. The infield sees the majority of POs and Assists of course. But…and here’s the kicker. MOST runs are scored on balls that reach the outfield (and the stands) than balls kicked around in the infield. A booted ball by a LF is FAR more damaging than betancourt stopping but not gloving one. Of course him throwing one away is even worse… but that’s another story. The thing is, all this data has been researched and certain conclusions have been made upon which the models that Dave is working on are based so I think I and most of the readers are just gonna trust his conclusions on it.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:44 pmThat was the entire point of my post, really.
What 1000N basically did:
-Subtracted the number of runs allowed by the best run preventing team from the worst run presenting team, giving a number that is the difference between their overall run prevention. We’re okay so far;
-Took 20% of that number for reasons he continues to refuse to justify at all, deeming that to be the total contribution of the defense to run prevention;
-Divided that number by 9, simply because that’s how many defenders are on the field at a time;
I’ll take Dave’s history of providing accurate and well researched analysis over dividing 20% of a number by 9.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:54 pmThis is our one chance for rosterbation? I’m going to take it, dammit!
We can all fantasize about who we want, but there’s who we can realistically hope to get. I’ve got a sort of maybe guess.
The Giants and M’s are comfortable trade partners. The M’s have what the Giants desperately need–big-league ready prospects and the Giants have what we desperately need–starting pitching. The big problem is, they’ll want to dump Morris.
I have no ability for pitcher evaluation; don’t know if the M’s should want Noah Lowry, but he’s young and has had success. It sounds insane that they’d give him up, but the Giants are against a wall. Their line up and bullpen is AWFUL and/or old, and how many free agents can they hope to acquire in the off season? For all the coverage, Bonds has that large fork sticking out of his back. On the other hand, as terrible as Zito’s been, he’s either got to die from the cancer he’s been hiding or return to mean next year, and they’d have Cain and Lincecum still. A trade now would also give them the last half of the season to audition minor league SPs.
The only question is, are they desperate enough right now? And can they smell the M’s sweat? Besides, all the fans are convinced they’re getting Ichiro in the off season, and after A-rod batting his eyelashes at them, him too. Who knows if the FO shares these dreams.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:58 pmI don’t want to be that guy but wouldn’t it be almost as good to have Bloomquist DH against LHP.
I mean if you really want to make a better team, Vidro isn’t really the best available option we have against LHP. If you really wanted a better hitter wouldn’t it just be better to DFA Vidro (and eat his salary) and then call up a RHB like Wlad or Morse.
The other posibility I see is to call up Wlad and DFA/trade Ellison. Then you’d play Wlad in place of Vidro and use Vidro as a bench bat. Vidro as a bench bat has a little value at least because he’s not going to have a significant platoon split so managers won’t be able to bring in something like a LOOGY to deal with him.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:58 pmI’m on board for just about everything here. A needed move should be to get Ibanez out of the lineup against lefties (or at the very least in the eighth spot). A trade should occur as well and I like the idea of a Moyer or Moyer type guy (lefty). Even a big-time reliever addition would be a nice pick up. I actually like Vidro as a pure bench guy/dh vs lefties. Forget the salary and use him similar to how teams use J. Mabry/ D. Hansen. He isn’t a bad guy to pinch hit late against a lefty or a righty if all you need is a single.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:06 pmVidro is even vs. LH or RH for his career and this year as well so if he’s inadequate for one might as well ditch him altogether. Especially with two great righties at AAA. If he was a pure lefty or at least switch with a stronger platoon vs those feisty no-name righties we suck against, than he’d have more starting value.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:09 pmYa know calling up AJ is good and all, but I think I’d prefer that Batista for Santana trade just to be double sure.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:50 pmAfter today I’d rather keep Ellison and DFA Vidro. Ellison has value defensively, whereas Vidro totally sucks on the field. The Mariners need to make bold moves where it makes sense to do so, and if they want to win a pennant, the attitude has to be screw the cost. After all, when they acquired Vidro and Weaver, the attitude then was screw the cost. So why shouldn’t they think that way now?
Free AJ!!!!
July 9th, 2007 at 12:37 amCould you explain how AJ’s arm is factored into your +/- of his defense? All talk seems to be about range. Is that factor being left out? Is there work on the value of an “extra base,” because of weak armed outfielders? Has the value of these extra bases (bases not allowed in AJ’s case) been put into some formula that factors into the +15 number? Maybe you could give me a for instance. What’s the runs difference betweeen Ichiro in center and Damon just based on arm, not range?
P.S. thanks for a great site. My brother (who happened to play Pac-10 baseball) just said to me today, “I just wish they could find a way to get Willie Bloomquist in the line-up everyday. He makes so many good things happen” I couldn’t stop laughing.
July 9th, 2007 at 12:56 amJavier Vazquez, Andrew Sonnanstine, Kevin Millwood, Jason Jennings, and Mike Mussina would be my targets right about now. I don’t think Jennings is going anywhere, and the Devil Rays might not want to move Sonnanstine so soon, so neither of those are very likely. I wouldn’t mind Millwood at all as I’ve always thought of him as a fairly reliable #2/#3 starter (more of a #3 with occasional years of #2 status), and Texas might sell him off for less just to rid themselves of the contract (perhaps wishful thinking since they’re divisional foes). Mussina’s an all-time favorite of mine, so it’d be awesome to see him jump ship to the M’s, and I think he’d really help out the rest of the pitching staff in terms of his knowledge, too (Felix especially). Vazquez would be my last choice as I’ve never liked his mental approach to the game and I don’t want him teaching Felix any bad approaches. However, I’d take him in a pinch as he’s much better than what we have, and he’d be a better pitcher for our park than almost any other in the AL.
July 9th, 2007 at 2:09 amI don’t think Jennings is going anywhere
I don’t