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	<title>Comments on: Some thoughts</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: Sammy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207232</link>
		<dc:creator>Sammy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 07:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207232</guid>
		<description>111.
You made your own argument:

&lt;i&gt;The argument can be made with every team&lt;/i&gt;

Every team has a few huge blowout losses. I think what sets us apart is the sheer number of these losses compounded by the fact that the vast majority came from one pitcher during a month and a half long span.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>111.<br />
You made your own argument:</p>
<p><i>The argument can be made with every team</i></p>
<p>Every team has a few huge blowout losses. I think what sets us apart is the sheer number of these losses compounded by the fact that the vast majority came from one pitcher during a month and a half long span.</p>
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		<title>By: Cap</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207224</link>
		<dc:creator>Cap</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 07:10:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207224</guid>
		<description>Maybe this is something, maybe it isn&#039;t: When you remove 3 games from the Mariners first-half results (4/10, 6/22, 7/3, a combined -40 run differential), the run differential on the season takes a huge leap forward into a realm more accurately reflecting their overall record. The argument can be made with every team, but this is a very large run differential over only 3 games during the first half of the season. This data makes me wonder if a case can be made against the &quot;run differential argument&quot; as to why the M&#039;s shouldn&#039;t just be a .500 team. I&#039;d appreciate some thoughts on this. Thanks!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe this is something, maybe it isn&#8217;t: When you remove 3 games from the Mariners first-half results (4/10, 6/22, 7/3, a combined -40 run differential), the run differential on the season takes a huge leap forward into a realm more accurately reflecting their overall record. The argument can be made with every team, but this is a very large run differential over only 3 games during the first half of the season. This data makes me wonder if a case can be made against the &#8220;run differential argument&#8221; as to why the M&#8217;s shouldn&#8217;t just be a .500 team. I&#8217;d appreciate some thoughts on this. Thanks!</p>
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		<title>By: Christopher Michael</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207106</link>
		<dc:creator>Christopher Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 05:45:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207106</guid>
		<description>I might not agree with your writing but it does help to read more into your thoughts on the matter. Glad you stopped by and explained yourself a bit more.  Shows character and accountability.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I might not agree with your writing but it does help to read more into your thoughts on the matter. Glad you stopped by and explained yourself a bit more.  Shows character and accountability.</p>
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		<title>By: gwangung</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207055</link>
		<dc:creator>gwangung</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 05:07:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207055</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not sure the USS Mariner group think that far away from Keith&#039;s analysis, other than we&#039;re fairly higher on the bullpen than he is (given that, say, Sherrill is death on lefthanders and seems to be used as a LOOGY, that data could be used more). I think we&#039;re somewhat mystified as to the extent of the success of the team, just like the national writers; but I don&#039;t think we&#039;re complaining.

[as far as the offense is concerned...is there an effect from having a team of decent hitters? Traditionalists TALK about the lineup having &quot;no holes&quot; but does that really translate into real world results?]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure the USS Mariner group think that far away from Keith&#8217;s analysis, other than we&#8217;re fairly higher on the bullpen than he is (given that, say, Sherrill is death on lefthanders and seems to be used as a LOOGY, that data could be used more). I think we&#8217;re somewhat mystified as to the extent of the success of the team, just like the national writers; but I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re complaining.</p>
<p>[as far as the offense is concerned...is there an effect from having a team of decent hitters? Traditionalists TALK about the lineup having "no holes" but does that really translate into real world results?]</p>
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		<title>By: Keith Law</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207051</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith Law</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 05:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207051</guid>
		<description>Loki - you&#039;re welcome. I thought I did a poor job, and when Dave Cameron dropped me a note about the handedness stuff (and that Morrow had lost his setup job), I thought it was only fair to come over and take my lumps.

I originally wanted to write the article because I thought there was an interesting story here, because the team is so far outplaying preseason expectations. But then I saw them live, and walked away feeling like I&#039;d just seen a .500 team. There wasn&#039;t an easy way to reconcile what I saw with their W-L record.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Loki &#8211; you&#8217;re welcome. I thought I did a poor job, and when Dave Cameron dropped me a note about the handedness stuff (and that Morrow had lost his setup job), I thought it was only fair to come over and take my lumps.</p>
<p>I originally wanted to write the article because I thought there was an interesting story here, because the team is so far outplaying preseason expectations. But then I saw them live, and walked away feeling like I&#8217;d just seen a .500 team. There wasn&#8217;t an easy way to reconcile what I saw with their W-L record.</p>
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		<title>By: Sammy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207050</link>
		<dc:creator>Sammy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 04:57:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207050</guid>
		<description>Re: Betancourt

Nope, we can&#039;t answer that for you, though we&#039;d like to. Betancourt is one of the largest sore spots of the season for us. Despite his flashes of speed, he&#039;s not a very good basestealer, either. We expected about what we saw last year: .280 average with a bit of pop, no plate discipline, and all-world defense. So far he&#039;s underperformed our expectations offensively, and, despite brilliant plays at short, he makes frequent lapses in concentration on routine grounders and overthrows Sexson at first.


Lopez has improved markedly on the field this year; he&#039;s easily one of the five best defensive 2Bs in the league. He does seem to miss a ball here and there that he should have gotten, but the times I think that are far and few between. You&#039;re right that he has no plate discipline, but he does have consistent line-drive power and he&#039;s starting to show that. Our whole lineup consists of hackers, and, while it can be extremely frustrating at times, I don&#039;t believe a high .280 batting average is unsustainable for this lineup, not with Beltre and Sexson coming on the way we expect them to.

I&#039;ll second loki and say that I had absolutely no expectation you would come over here and talk things over face to face (so to speak); that&#039;s a significant amount of respect to be shown by a national columnist, and I do sincerely appreciate it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Betancourt</p>
<p>Nope, we can&#8217;t answer that for you, though we&#8217;d like to. Betancourt is one of the largest sore spots of the season for us. Despite his flashes of speed, he&#8217;s not a very good basestealer, either. We expected about what we saw last year: .280 average with a bit of pop, no plate discipline, and all-world defense. So far he&#8217;s underperformed our expectations offensively, and, despite brilliant plays at short, he makes frequent lapses in concentration on routine grounders and overthrows Sexson at first.</p>
<p>Lopez has improved markedly on the field this year; he&#8217;s easily one of the five best defensive 2Bs in the league. He does seem to miss a ball here and there that he should have gotten, but the times I think that are far and few between. You&#8217;re right that he has no plate discipline, but he does have consistent line-drive power and he&#8217;s starting to show that. Our whole lineup consists of hackers, and, while it can be extremely frustrating at times, I don&#8217;t believe a high .280 batting average is unsustainable for this lineup, not with Beltre and Sexson coming on the way we expect them to.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll second loki and say that I had absolutely no expectation you would come over here and talk things over face to face (so to speak); that&#8217;s a significant amount of respect to be shown by a national columnist, and I do sincerely appreciate it.</p>
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		<title>By: lokiforever</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207043</link>
		<dc:creator>lokiforever</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 04:35:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207043</guid>
		<description>Keith

Thanks for coming by to share your views and respond professionaly to some of the critiques offered here.  You have Cyber balls.

One of the critiques, 71, suggested the tone veered from one side to the other...ironically, the articles posted here at USSMariner are at times optimistic and and others pessimistic, as is the mood with us M&#039;s fans over the course of a season. Today, and this last week, we&#039;re all particularly giddy.

I thought the article was good, (save the handedness bit with the pitchhers, an honest oversight)

Thank you for showing the M&#039;s some love.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Keith</p>
<p>Thanks for coming by to share your views and respond professionaly to some of the critiques offered here.  You have Cyber balls.</p>
<p>One of the critiques, 71, suggested the tone veered from one side to the other&#8230;ironically, the articles posted here at USSMariner are at times optimistic and and others pessimistic, as is the mood with us M&#8217;s fans over the course of a season. Today, and this last week, we&#8217;re all particularly giddy.</p>
<p>I thought the article was good, (save the handedness bit with the pitchhers, an honest oversight)</p>
<p>Thank you for showing the M&#8217;s some love.</p>
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		<title>By: Keith Law</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207041</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith Law</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 04:13:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207041</guid>
		<description>Sammy:

My reasoning was simplistic, absolutely. It was a short take on a subject that deserved a longer treatment. I won&#039;t make excuses for that.

As for the lineup, when I saw the M&#039;s live, I pretty much had the hitters in two categories: Ichiro and Beltre, and everyone else. (That&#039;s not quite fair - Johjima was OK, but he looked very vulnerable on stuff down.) Ichiro&#039;s VORP is 36% of the team&#039;s total, 34% if you knock out the sub-zero guys. Lopez is having a decent year average-wise, but his plate discipline is horrendous. Someone might want to alert him to the existence of the &quot;slider.&quot; And he was beyond lazy in the field in those games. Granted, it was a limited look, and maybe there was something else going on. Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that Ichiro accounts for a significant amount of their offense.

Regarding Sherrill, I did check his &#039;06 splits, and I had seen that 43% of righties reached base against him, same as in 2005 (tiny sample). So does what he&#039;s done against 41 righties this year mark a legitimate change in his abilities? I couldn&#039;t answer that question, so I didn&#039;t try to.

One question you folks might be able to answer for me: Is there some reason Yuniesky Betancourt can&#039;t be bothered to run out a groundball?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sammy:</p>
<p>My reasoning was simplistic, absolutely. It was a short take on a subject that deserved a longer treatment. I won&#8217;t make excuses for that.</p>
<p>As for the lineup, when I saw the M&#8217;s live, I pretty much had the hitters in two categories: Ichiro and Beltre, and everyone else. (That&#8217;s not quite fair &#8211; Johjima was OK, but he looked very vulnerable on stuff down.) Ichiro&#8217;s VORP is 36% of the team&#8217;s total, 34% if you knock out the sub-zero guys. Lopez is having a decent year average-wise, but his plate discipline is horrendous. Someone might want to alert him to the existence of the &#8220;slider.&#8221; And he was beyond lazy in the field in those games. Granted, it was a limited look, and maybe there was something else going on. Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that Ichiro accounts for a significant amount of their offense.</p>
<p>Regarding Sherrill, I did check his &#8216;06 splits, and I had seen that 43% of righties reached base against him, same as in 2005 (tiny sample). So does what he&#8217;s done against 41 righties this year mark a legitimate change in his abilities? I couldn&#8217;t answer that question, so I didn&#8217;t try to.</p>
<p>One question you folks might be able to answer for me: Is there some reason Yuniesky Betancourt can&#8217;t be bothered to run out a groundball?</p>
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		<title>By: Sammy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207039</link>
		<dc:creator>Sammy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 04:08:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207039</guid>
		<description>Make that 39-2, sorry</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Make that 39-2, sorry</p>
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		<title>By: Sammy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/comment-page-3/#comment-207038</link>
		<dc:creator>Sammy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jul 2007 04:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/13/some-thoughts/#comment-207038</guid>
		<description>Keith,

It occurred to me that &quot;third-best option&quot; doesn&#039;t exactly sound like the highest praise; I suppose that&#039;s a reflection of just how fantastic this bullpen is. Do you realize the M&#039;s are 42-2 in games they lead after the 7th?

By the way, pythags underrate this team a bit. I realize that every team has blowout victories and blowout losses, but we&#039;ve had more than our fair share of the latter. Jeff Weaver&#039;s six starts were historically monstrous. Check this list out (via one of the commenters at Lookoutlanding):

Weaver:
L 14-3
L 11-2
L 6-1
L 8-3
L 8-1

Feierabend:
L 16-1
L 17-3

Total RA: 80
Total RS: 13</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Keith,</p>
<p>It occurred to me that &#8220;third-best option&#8221; doesn&#8217;t exactly sound like the highest praise; I suppose that&#8217;s a reflection of just how fantastic this bullpen is. Do you realize the M&#8217;s are 42-2 in games they lead after the 7th?</p>
<p>By the way, pythags underrate this team a bit. I realize that every team has blowout victories and blowout losses, but we&#8217;ve had more than our fair share of the latter. Jeff Weaver&#8217;s six starts were historically monstrous. Check this list out (via one of the commenters at Lookoutlanding):</p>
<p>Weaver:<br />
L 14-3<br />
L 11-2<br />
L 6-1<br />
L 8-3<br />
L 8-1</p>
<p>Feierabend:<br />
L 16-1<br />
L 17-3</p>
<p>Total RA: 80<br />
Total RS: 13</p>
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