Sean Green
When evaluating the team’s strengths and weaknesses, there is a popular sentiment gaining traction (especially among local beat writers and columists) that the Mariners should begin exploring a trade for a right-handed setup man to take some of the load off of J.J. Putz, who made yet another multi-inning save on Saturday night. Here’s a snippet from the linked Art Thiel piece:
So in the two weeks left until the trade deadline, it seems the Mariners’ most urgent need is less a starting pitcher and more a veteran setup reliever who might also spell Putz.
And here’s a quick take from Geoff Baker’s latest blog entry:
J.J. Putz continues to carry the bullpen, but he cannot do it alone for the entire season. The need for a more dominant eighth-inning set-up man still appears to be there.
Both Thiel and Baker are smart guys, and while we don’t agree with everything they write, they follow the team closely and generally form their opinions around some evidence and logic. Both guys have decided that the M’s simply don’t have a reliever in the bullpen capable of skills that would deem him worthy of 8th inning, high leverage situations. Baker’s outlined his reasons for keeping George Sherrill in the left-handed specialist role, and while I disagree with his conclusion and would like to see Sherrill and his 1.26 ERA given a chance to pitch the 8th inning on his own (much as Arthur Rhodes used to do), that’s not what this post is about.
No, this post is about the criminally underrated Sean Green. In all the clamoring over the M’s need for a lights out right-handed setup man, the failures of Chris Reitsma and Brandon Morrow are often pointed to, while Green is a simple after thought. Indeed, it seems that both the Mariners, and those in favor of acquiring another right-handed setup guy, are focusing significantly more on velocity than production. Brandon Morrow was given the 8th inning because he throws hard, and now that he’s proven that he’s not yet a major league pitcher, the Mariners apparently need to replace him with another guy who also throws extremely hard.
Meanwhile, while radar gun lighter uppers like Brad Lidge, Kyle Farnsworth, Derrick Turnbow, and Fernando Cabrera mix impressive fastballs with inconsistent results, Sean Green just keeps getting people out when it matters. Since adjusting his delivery to drop down and get more tilt on his slider, Green has added a strikeout pitch to his already lethal sinker, and the results have been nothing sort of tremendous. However, because his fastball sits at 93 with movement instead of 98 and straight, apparently, he’s not worthy of the 8th inning role.
Or, as Thiel put it this morning, the ‘pen is full of guys who haven’t yet proven that they can get critical outs, because they’re young and untested. But isn’t giving opportunities to those players within the organization who have earned them part of building a championship team? I know Sean Green doesn’t have the velocity readings that some people covet, but don’t even the staunchest velocity lovers have to admit that it takes a back seat to performance at some point?
And, really, there’s no arguing with the performance of the 2007 Sean Green. When the team has called upon him to put out a fire, he’s done so with amazing consistency. Once again, let’s take a look at the incredible fangraphs play log for Green, sorting each of the at-bats against him by Leverage Index (LI on the chart), which is essentially just a number that quantifies how important the game scenario is. For those who love clutch performers, Leverage Index is your dream stat. Anyway, let’s look at how Green has done in the high leverage situations he’s been handed this year.
July 2nd, at KC, bottom of the 9th, tied at 2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 3rd
Eric O’Flaherty had just given up a double and a single, putting the winning run 90 feet away, and bringing Emil Brown to the plate. A routine flyball gives the Royals the win. Sean Green comes in and blows Emil Brown away, getting the strikeout for the 2nd out, and eliminating the chance for a sacrifice fly ending the game.
June 8th, at San Diego, top of the 9th, tied at 5
Green relieved Brandon Morrow to start the 9th inning of a tie game on the road, meaning a run equals a loss. After an error by Adrian Beltre put the winning run on base with nobody out, Green got out of the inning without the run scoring. He then was called on to also pitch the 10th, and after getting the first out, he gave up back to back singles to put the winning run in scoring position with only one out. He then struck out Rob Bowen and got a weak grounder from Russ Branyan to complete two scoreless innings, and the M’s would then win in 11 innings after a Raul Ibanez home run gave them the lead immediately thereafter.
June 9th, at San Diego, bottom of the 7th, trailing 5-4
The day after throwing two high leverage shutout innings, the M’s went back to the Sean Green well, asking him to keep their deficit at just one run. After getting an easy 1-2-3 seventh inning, the Mariners tied the game up in the top of the 8th, and Mike Hargrove sent Green back out for his 4th high leverage inning in 24 hours. He gave up a leadoff single, then got a groundball fielders choice that kept the runner at first base and struckout Russ Branyan before giving up another single that put the winning run on 3rd base with two out. Khalil Greene stepped to the plate. Khalil Greene struck out, and Green wrapped up another successful appearance. The M’s then took the lead in the top of the 9th and won when J.J. Putz shut it down.
July 12th, vs Tigers, top of the 7th, up 3-2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
Felix’s last start ended when the Tigers got two hits off of him in the 7th inning, putting the tying run in scoring position with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen due up. Sean Green got the call. He struck out Ordonez and got Guillen to weakly tap to first base. Inning over, rally quashed.
June 30th, vs Blue Jays, top of the 7th, up 3-1, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
The Blue Jays chased Miguel Batista with a single and a walk to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. Green comes out of the pen and immediately induces an inning-ending double play. Inning over, rally quashed.
Those are the five highest leverage situations Green has been called into this year. He’s done yeoman’s work in all five, providing a huge boost to the team’s chances of winning each time, either through a clutch strikeout or a timely double play.
No, he hasn’t been perfect. He gave up a single to Michael Barrett to drive in the tying run in his second inning of work on June 12th against the Cubs, but then again, I’m pretty sure perfection isn’t the baseline by which we judge the quality of a setup man. If it was, we certainly wouldn’t be interested in failed closers from non-contenders, now would we?
By any measure you want to use, traditional or not, Sean Green has been tremendous this season. His ERA is 2.86, while his FIP is 3.60. Righties are only hitting .239/.307/.337 against him. The last 28 days, the league as a whole is hitting .214/.333/.286. He hasn’t given up a home run since his second appearance of the year. He’s inherited 21 baserunners - 3 have scored. He’s induced 6 double plays, most of any Mariner reliever, while only pitching 34 innings, and his double play rate is by far the highest on the team.
I don’t get it. Why are we in such a rush to replace Sean Green with a variety of pitchers who aren’t as good as Sean Green? Because he doesn’t throw hard enough?
I’d have thought the strikeout of Magglio Ordonez on Friday night would have opened some eyes. Sean Green has been establishing himself as a qualified high leverage right-handed setup man for the last month, even while the Mariners continue to try to force inferior pitchers like Brandon Morrow and Chris Reitsma into that role.
J.J. Putz has been tremendous this season, but Art, he’s had help - Sean Green and George Sherrill have also been big components in the Mariners bullpen cog, and they deserve better than the little respect they’re getting right now.
You want to trade for Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, or Eric Gagne, and surrender a quality young player or two in the process? I’ll stick with my man Sean Green, thanks, who will keep getting his groundballs and strikeouts while bailing the team out of jams and being an underappreciated reason this team is winning ballgames.
Talk about insane. The bullpen is actually the team’s greatest strength. The rotation, however, is just not ready for prime time. We saw the real Weaver again yesterday, Ramirez is hurt, and Batista and Felix have both been inconsistent. Felix’ bad mechanics mean he could go down again with another injury any time. Anyone who doesn’t think improving the rotation is the team’s greatest need just isn’t paying attention, IMO.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:35 pmWhat about Otsuka? Then we could flip-flop using Green and Otsuka in the 7th and 8th and use Sherrill for the Barry Bonds/Ken Griffey Jr. type players.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:38 pmapparently it was the main topic of discussion last night in the pressbox …
July 16th, 2007 at 12:38 pmI love Green too. But isn’t part of the hesitation to make him the 8th inning guy about the fact that we need him available for longer, 2 inning stints after the starters have left early?
July 16th, 2007 at 12:42 pmare you really KevinCostner? Because I’ve got a bone to pick with you about that Robin Hood accent.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:46 pmMy wife saw Green’s improvement before I did. About a month ago she said, “isn’t he pitching more sidearm now? Anyway it looks like his ball is whiffling a lot more than it used to.”
She noticed, then I noticed, and many of you must have noticed. A good question to pose is why don’t they notice in the press box, and if they do, why aren’t they saying anything about it?
July 16th, 2007 at 12:47 pmWhat about Otsuka?
How many awesome relievers do you think a team needs? Putz, Green, and Sherrill isn’t enough for you? O’Flaherty’s really stinking up the joint and you need him to get tossed overboard?
Look, the M’s have much bigger problems than upgrading their 5th best guy out of the bullpen, and it’s not like there aren’t internatal options (Kam Mickolio and Mark Lowe, to name two) for that.
But isn’t part of the hesitation to make him the 8th inning guy about the fact that we need him available for longer, 2 inning stints after the starters have left early?
No. Remember, we’re still carrying 12 pitchers, so Rowland-Smith, Morrow, O’Flaherty, and Reitsma are more than enough to soak up those mopup innings.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:48 pmDoes anyone think the Braves would reverse the trade they made for Soriano? Oh the painful irony.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:50 pmNo. Remember, we’re still carrying 12 pitchers, so Rowland-Smith, Morrow, O’Flaherty, and Reitsma are more than enough to soak up those mopup innings.
But like you said Dave most of those guys, really can’t be trusted to mopup innings in the situation that one of our starters gets injured like Felix did, now we don’t have Woods either so if we just use Green as a setup guy who can we trust for a situation like that?
July 16th, 2007 at 12:52 pmI’m a big fan of Green and agree that he should be getting more consideration to be the right-handed setup guy. (And I really think Sherrill should be pitching the 8th — the WHOLE 8th — on a regular basis. Why oh why can’t the Mariners stop looking at him as a LOOGY?)
That said, Dave, are you concerned about Green’s 1.53 WHIP? His walk total is a little high, but I guess the paucity of homers he’s allowed has allowed him to get by with that. Surely, though, even allowing that he is a groundball machine, his homerun rate is bound to increase and then the walks become unacceptable.
July 16th, 2007 at 12:54 pmWith this game of musical chairs in the bullpen, and nobody sure who should take the ball in the 8th, where does Julio Mateo fit into this equation?
Not that i would ever proclaim Mateo to be 8th inning shutdown reliever, but his stats are pretty good in Tacoma right now (24k’s and 2BB’s). It just seems like this organization is spewing young decent relievers, why pick up another arm that may or may not help in the short term?
July 16th, 2007 at 12:59 pmBut like you said Dave most of those guys, really can’t be trusted to mopup innings…
I didn’t say that, and it’s not true. Mopup innings have next to no value in terms of wins and losses - the team carried worthless stiffs like Jason Davis and Sean White and stayed in contention. Rowland-Smith, Reitsma, Morrow, and O’Flaherty can eat those innings just fine. Of course, the sensible thing would be to send Morrow back to the minors to get some low-pressure work on his command and use those innings to break in a kid like Mickolio, but no, you don’t need Sean Green for that.
Also, run-on sentences are not your friend.
That said, Dave, are you concerned about Green’s 1.53 WHIP?
Nope. WHIP doesn’t matter. Green gives up more singles than the average reliever, because groundballs go for hits more than flyballs, but a groundball+strikeout pitcher usually has few problems stranding those runners with a timely strikeout or double play.
Ignore WHIP. It’s useless. There are better ways to evaluate pitchers.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:01 pm11-They’re not going to bring back Mateo after what happened with his wife, no matter how good he’s pitching in Tacoma. My guess is they’re keeping him there so some team in need of a decent reliever will notice how well he’s doing and Mateo will get some kind of trade value.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:01 pmWHIP, to be sure, is not a great tool to evaluate pitchers. I guess I was more getting at Green’s walk rate being high and his homerun rate being absurdly low. Once the latter comes up, the former becomes a problem.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:04 pmI’m no expert, but I think 10 should read this.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/
July 16th, 2007 at 1:06 pmI guess I was more getting at Green’s walk rate being high and his homerun rate being absurdly low. Once the latter comes up, the former becomes a problem.
His home run rate is so absurdly low because he’s an extreme groundball pitcher who gets to pitch out of the bullpen. Relivers post lower HR/FB rates than starters do, and Green just doesn’t give up many flyballs to begin with.
Obviously, I’d prefer it if he walked fewer guys, but his current formula of strikeouts+groundballs will work just fine. Of the walks/strikeouts/groundballs trifecta of goodness, you only need to master two of the three to be a quality pitcher. If he ever learns how to cut down on the walks while retaining the strikeouts and grounders, well, then, he’s a relief ace.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:09 pmDave, a few days ago when you said that this post was comming, someone linked to your (or the blog’s) first mentioning of Green, when he was traded. He was called a non-prospect at that time. What has he done to change that view, the new sidearm slider perhaps?
July 16th, 2007 at 1:10 pmHaving real both Thiel and Baker over the last few days on this subject and now having read your article here I ahve come to the following conclusions:
July 16th, 2007 at 1:14 pm1)Green has proven himself a find there in the pen from the RH side of the mound.Not exactly Sherrill but close enough that compare some the other RHPers in the pen I’ll trust Green first.
2)Time has come that as soon as Lowe is ready to return send Morrow down to at least AAA to work on his one major flaw:His wildness in the K zone.
He also needs to work on more dependable ace in the hole pitch other than just his fastball.
I strongly suggest either a hard stinker or splitfinger with a change up as a change of paste.
3)Time has come to move in trade be for prospects,a MOR SP who’s an upgrade from either/both Weaver and Ramirez,and maybe another arm for the pen namely a long man:
Mateo
Reitsma
Ramirez
Reed
Ellison
if need be Balenien for the right deal.
My preference however would be for the MOR SP and prospects to help strenghten the farm.
Well, Dave isn’t the only guy who was wrong in retrospect; I can think of at least one, probably two other blog/observers who thought he was inconsequential. Changing the arm angle probably helped; is he throwing a change that he mastered?
July 16th, 2007 at 1:15 pmI don’t read Baker and I stopped reading Thiel a long time ago… so I suppose I have to take your word for it that they use any sort of logic or reasoning at all.
Frankly, I don’t see how anyone who thinks that this team’s “most urgent need” is a veteran setup reliever isn’t an idiot.
Coupled with the unsupported Adam Jones brush-off, I struggle to find a way to excuse this column.
Perhaps you’re just being kind or polite, Dave. Perhaps Thiel took a blow to the head prior to writing the particular column. Perhaps he didn’t write the column at all, but let a pre-teen neighbor do it for him in exchange for free lawn care.
But from this cheap seat, Thiel reads as a particularly sad version of misguided.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:16 pmThe adjusted arm angle, giving him a punchout slider, has made all the difference in the world. Before that, he was just a groundball guy who had to pitch to contact in every situation - now he’s got a swing-and-a-miss weapon.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:16 pmBearman: I think Morrow already has a “hard stinker”, i.e. a fastball that he doesn’t know where it is going.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:18 pmSurely, though, even allowing that he is a groundball machine, his homerun rate is bound to increase and then the walks become unacceptable.
Pitchers last year who maintained a 5.5% HR/FB or better and pitched more than 60 innings: Juan Rincon (3.5%), Chad Gaudin (3.9%), Ruddy Lugo (4.4%), B.J. Ryan (4.4%), Papelbon (4.8%), Huston Street (5.2%), Mariano Rivera (5.3%), Joaquin Benoit (5.5%).
Sean Green’s “true” HR/FB rate might be worse than 5.5%, but it’s also probably better than the league average of 10%. On the whole, we should probably expect his HR/FB rate to rise a bit, but it’s not “bound” to do anything.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:20 pm23 — Green’s given up 1 home run in 35 innings. Whether you call it “bound” or “regressing to the mean,” his home run rate will go up.
The other question mark about Green — beyond his somewhat troubling walk rate — is his split against LHB. In 8 2/3, he has given up 13 hits and walked 10 with only 3 Ks. Small sample, obviously, but he has struggled against lefties. Perhaps there is a dearth of confidence that he can consistently get LHBs out, making the M’s wary of promoting him to set-up guy.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:25 pmTo add on to Mat, that’s also why xFIP is not real accurate for relievers, a good reliever won’t allow anywhere near to 11% of flyballs to become homers.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:26 pmThe other question mark about Green — beyond his somewhat troubling walk rate — is his split against LHB.
If only the team had a dominating left-handed setup guy to pair with Sean Green…
July 16th, 2007 at 1:26 pmWell Bearman, I’m no GM, but if you offered me Mateo, Reed, Reitsma, Ramirez and Ellison I might offer you a bucket of warm piss in return.*
One accused wife beater, one busted prospect, and three no-marks. No value in any of them. We’d get more in return by offering Wlad by himself.
Zero plus zero plus zero.. still equals zero.
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Nance_Garner
July 16th, 2007 at 1:27 pm26 — Hey, I love Sherrill, but I don’t generally think of a shut-down setup guy having to be paired with another. I would like two guys who can stay in the game, rather than be pulled when an opposite handed batter comes up. I think Sherrill is one of those guys (despite the M’s ridiculous view that he is a LOOGY); I’m just not sure that Green is another. That said, I think he’s good enough that the M’s shouldn’t be concentrating on finding a setup guy over a solid SP.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:30 pm[deleted, uninteligible]
July 16th, 2007 at 1:31 pm…The other question mark about Green — beyond his somewhat troubling walk rate — is his split against LHB. In 8 2/3, he has given up 13 hits and walked 10 with only 3 Ks. Small sample, obviously, but he has struggled against lefties…
July 16th, 2007 at 1:32 pmIsn’t that what Sherrill should be used for?
MarinerDan,
Sherril is good enough that he can be left in the game against most righties.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:34 pm31 — That’s what I’ve been saying repeatedly in this thread. Please re-read my posts. It was Green I was questioning against lefties.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:35 pmIf only the team had a dominating left-handed setup guy to pair with Sean Green…
Now you’re just contradicting yourself Dave. You said in the intro that you’d like to use Sherrill as more than just a LOOGY. So which one is is it?
July 16th, 2007 at 1:37 pmDave,
Not sure how you can lump Lidge in with Farnsworth, Dotel, Turnbow, etc. For the record, I don’t believe the Mariners should give up any valuable prospects for him given the bullpen depth they currently have.
However, with the exception of 2006 when he had a spike in his HR rate (1.2 HR/9 vs. .67 HR/9 the rest of his career), Lidge has made hitters look silly basically his entire career. With a 12.64 K/9 and a 3.33 K/BB ratio for his career to go along with an ERA of 2.97 from 2004 until today, he has been a dominant force as a reliever. Albert Pujols moonshot be damned.
Again, I do not believe the Mariners should deal for him. I do believe you erred in lumping him in with Turnbow and Farnsworth, though.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:37 pmNow you’re just contradicting yourself Dave. You said in the intro that you’d like to use Sherrill as more than just a LOOGY. So which one is is it?
You know, if you can’t figure out what I want from this post, I can’t help you.
However, with the exception of 2006 when he had a spike in his HR rate (1.2 HR/9 vs. .67 HR/9 the rest of his career), Lidge has made hitters look silly basically his entire career.
He was disastrous in April before losing his closers job. He turned it around again, but he’s also spent time on the DL with a strained oblique, an injury that often leads to arm problems.
Between his playoff meltdown, his disastrous 2006, his horrible April, and his time on the DL, I think it’s fair to call him inconsistent.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:40 pmCool post….which is one more reason why USS Mariner rocks.
My question is….How did we get Sean Green? Does Bavasi get credit for acquiring Green or did he arrive the old fashioned way coming up through the farm system?
July 16th, 2007 at 1:42 pmBetween his playoff meltdown, his disastrous 2006, his horrible April, and his time on the DL, I think it’s fair to call him inconsistent.
Particularly when you consider that the most recent performance (say, this year and last year) are the most relevant when predicting future success.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:44 pm36-He was traded to the Mariners on December 20, 2004 for Aaron Taylor.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:45 pmMaybe the commentators have neglected Green because they have him confused with White.
So maybe they are thinking of a combination of outings which were really two different pitchers.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:50 pmDave,
RE - mopup innings.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:52 pmIt seems to me that with this starting staff, a lot of times, the 2 inning stints are coming in critical situations. A Weaver or Batista will leave in the 5th or 6th in a close game. We need someone who can perform in these situations. I don’t think you really intend to suggest that any time a pitcher comes in in the 5th or sixth, that it is automatically “mopup duty”?
Nice post, Dave.
I’ve been a fan of Green’s for a while, and I’m shocked he doesn’t get ms eminently teachable. As well he should be - it’s hard to find a gmore name-drops in the classic ‘name a trade where the M’s actually benefitted’ conversation. The Aaron Taylor for Green trade is about as straight-up a victory as you’ll ever see. Better than the Huber-for-Hansen deal, certainly.
But as an early adopter, I think public appreciation for the guy will always lag for a big reason. He’s simply not the guy he was when we traded for him, and he’s not the guy he was last year. Looking at Green is looking at a work in progress, and a lot of people are never comfortable with that.
He had awful college stats at Louisville, and put together a nearly identical line in the minors for Colorado: he was about the most hittable pitcher you’d ever seen, walked a lot, and didn’t strike anyone out. His HR rate was OK, but certainly nothing special. This was a minor league free agent to be.
When acquired by the M’s, something fairly dramatic happened (and this is where blogs with influence with the team could dig up a great story…). His hit rate dropped by a ton and his K’s rose. all the while, his HR rate was cut in half. To be sure, some of this happened in his last year in the Rockies org, but it solidified in the M’s org. I don’t know if someone taught him how to get movement on his pitches or what, but Green in 05 or so is unrecognizeable from the Green of 02.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:52 pmIn over 73 innings in Tacoma, he gave up 1 HR. His stuff was also good enough that increased Ks were a strong possibility; he just wasn’t able to harness it. His old delivery led him to throw across his body at times, bringing his FB way inside to righties (I think), and that resulted in wild pitches, HBPs and BBs. He was valuable in a mop-up role - and that was the way he was used in tacoma, even this year - but he wasn’t a great reliever.
So I’d like to know more about who told him what to turn from a wild reliever who avoided HRs at the expense of dozens of baserunners to this new guy, who strikes out 8 per 9 or so. Was this Chavez, who saw him in 05? Was it Charlton? Someone else? Whoever it was, it’s made a huge difference. But people who look at his career numbers will miss it - his minor league career averages are putrid. People that remember some of his rocky outings *this year* may not get over their first impressions. It’s human nature.
I’m just proud of the guy; he seeuy who struggled sooo much in the minors see this much success in the majors.
Dave, what about Lowe, and Mickolio? Those guys are about ready to come up, and I would think they would be great candidate for the late innings right behind Putz. You factor in Sherrill and you should have something there. I don’t think we need to trade for a releiver, I think the best answers are in Tacoma.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:53 pmI played high school baseball against Sean Green in Louisville, KY and in one game he dented an aluminum bat. How’s that for velocity?
Great post! Another thing to mention is that even if we do acquire Lidge or Gagne, how happy are they going to be as a setup man? If they return to form then they’ll immediately want to be on a team they can close games for in 2008 and if they don’t return to form we’re paying $6-$8mm for the same results we could be getting from anyone in Tacoma or already on the Mariners roster!
July 16th, 2007 at 1:54 pmNice post, Dave.
I’ve been a fan of Green’s for a while, and I’m shocked he doesn’t get more name-drops in the classic ‘name a trade where the M’s actually benefitted’ conversation. The Aaron Taylor for Green trade is about as straight-up a victory as you’ll ever see. Better than the Huber-for-Hansen deal, certainly.
But as an early adopter, I think public appreciation for the guy will always lag for a big reason. He’s simply not the guy he was when we traded for him, and he’s not the guy he was last year. Looking at Green is looking at a work in progress, and a lot of people are never comfortable with that.
He had awful college stats at Louisville, and put together a nearly identical line in the minors for Colorado: he was about the most hittable pitcher you’d ever seen, walked a lot, and didn’t strike anyone out. His HR rate was OK, but certainly nothing special. This was a minor league free agent to be.
When acquired by the M’s, something fairly dramatic happened (and this is where blogs with influence with the team could dig up a great story…). His hit rate dropped by a ton and his K’s rose. all the while, his HR rate was cut in half. To be sure, some of this happened in his last year in the Rockies org, but it solidified in the M’s org. I don’t know if someone taught him how to get movement on his pitches or what, but Green in 05 or so is unrecognizeable from the Green of 02.
In over 73 innings in Tacoma, he gave up 1 HR. His stuff was also good enough that increased Ks were a strong possibility; he just wasn’t able to harness it. His old delivery led him to throw across his body at times, bringing his FB way inside to righties (I think), and that resulted in wild pitches, HBPs and BBs. He was valuable in a mop-up role - and that was the way he was used in tacoma, even this year - but he wasn’t a great reliever.
So I’d like to know more about who told him what to turn from a wild reliever who avoided HRs at the expense of dozens of baserunners to this new guy, who strikes out 8 per 9 or so. Was this Chavez, who saw him in 05? Was it Charlton? Someone else? Whoever it was, it’s made a huge difference. But people who look at his career numbers will miss it - his minor league career averages are putrid. People that remember some of his rocky outings *this year* may not get over their first impressions. It’s human nature.
I’m just proud of the guy; he seems eminently teachable. And why wouldn’t he be? It’s hard to find a guy who struggled sooo much in the minors see this much success in the majors.
Sorry - the formatting got all screwed up in the above post. Bits of paragraphs comingling with others. Very gauche.
July 16th, 2007 at 1:54 pmYeah, if I were to spend $8M dollars to make the Mariners more of a contender, my first thought wouldn’t be “Right handed set-up relief pitcher”. Those guys ought to be close to minimum salary.
If they’re to be worth $8M they need to be filling a more valuable role. Is ANY set-up guy in baseball worth $8M?
It has to be about the 18th or 20th most valuable position on the team, somewhere between pinch-hitter and back-up catcher.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:07 pmIt has to be about the 18th or 20th most valuable position on the team, somewhere between pinch-hitter and back-up catcher.
You really think George Sherrill has been the same value as a pinch-hitter? What about Scot Shields? Or Okajima? Or Pat Neshek? I think you are really underestimating the value of a top-flight setup man.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:13 pmThere’s a massive difference between a dominating left-handed setup guy and a LOOGY. A loogy is usually somebody who doesn’t have good enough stuff to get right handers out, but has a deceptive enough delivery tohet lefties out.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:13 pm“Between his playoff meltdown, his disastrous 2006, his horrible April, and his time on the DL, I think it’s fair to call him inconsistent.”
Well, his playoff meltdown has been over-hyped somewhat. He gave up a 3 run homer to the best hitter on the planet then gave up an inexcusable homer to Scott Podsednik. While the latter is very bad, he still had 18 K’s versus 6 BB’s in 12.2 innings.
As for his horrible April, it was a function of a few bad outings more than anything. He gave up 6 runs in 3 April appearances but none in his other 9 while striking out 12 in 9.1 total innings. All he did in May and June was strike out 32 against 9 BB’s in 25.1 innings with a 1.06 ERA.
“Particularly when you consider that the most recent performance (say, this year and last year) are the most relevant when predicting future success.”
Well, if you care to use his 2007 performance he has been quite good. A 2.27 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning and nearly 3 K’s per walk he gives up.
Again, I don’t think that the M’s should trade for him. But he is head and shoulders above guys like Turnbow. I’m not sure how you can look at his 2006 as anything other than anomalous given that his HR rate has returned to his norm this year and his ERA has followed suit.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:17 pm45 - And even looking at it in this specific situation… how long a list could we come up with of needs more urgent than Thiel’s “most urgent”?
4? 5? 8?
Are we counting needs that can be filled in-house? Or does his equal parts arrogant and ignorant dismissal of an Adam Jones promotion mean we are only talking about urgent needs we meet through trades?
How about it, Art? Reading along?
Elucidate, wouldja?
July 16th, 2007 at 2:17 pmA loogy is usually somebody who doesn’t have good enough stuff to get right handers out, but has a deceptive enough delivery tohet lefties out.
I wish the M’s would start to see that Sherrill simply does not fit that description! The man can get anyone out.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:17 pmWhat are your thoughts about moving Morrow to the starter role? Not in the bigs–but in Tacoma, bringing up Mickolio to fill his spot.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:20 pmDave, what about Lowe, and Mickolio?
I think the point was that Green is ready to do the 8th inning set up role. The guys you named could start out with the middle innings and see how they do.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:21 pmA starter, an outfielder that can actually field, and a DH that can actually hit are much more pressing needs for this team. We’ve gotten lucky so far, now it’s time to be good.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:23 pmSherrill and Okajima are both lefties - outside of my argument.
Shields and Neshek are both damn good, but neither is making anything close to $8M.
I’ll admit, there’s not much reasoning here to defend. My calculations went:
Who are the most valuable guys on the 25 man roster?
- Your starting 9, plus at least one back up guy
- Your five starting pitchers
- Your closer
- Your best left handed reliever
then, at number 18, your best RH relief pitcher other than your closer.
It’s a very rough rule of thumb. Feel free to criticise.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:24 pmSherrill and Okajima are both lefties - outside of my argument.
In fairness, you said:
Is ANY set-up guy in baseball worth $8M? It has to be about the 18th or 20th most valuable position on the team, somewhere between pinch-hitter and back-up catcher.
So, you were impugning the value of all set up men, not just righthanders. Nevertheless, while Shields and Neshek are not making $8M, they might be worth that much.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:28 pmThanks again for the Green post.
Hopefully the M’s realize that they do not need another relief pitcher. On the DL or in the minors are Huber, Mickolio, Mateo, and Lowe. If the M’s can’t stomach the thought of any of those pitching alongside Putz, Sherrill, Green, and O’Flaherty and forming a good bullpen, then they need help. Even with the struggles of Morrow and Reitsma, the bullpen should be the absolute last thing about which they should worry.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:33 pmTrading for a RH setup should be way down the list of needs especially with what would be the asking price for a Gagne or Lidge. Green, Lowe, Mickolio, Morrow are all cheap and one of which can handle the job.
If their talking about bullpen help, lets get another LH so O’Flaherty can start. O’Flaherty starting instead of HoRam tonite, seems like a better game already.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:35 pmEvery time Sean Green takes the mound I’m confused by his appearance.
Then I realise I was expecing Seth Green.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:43 pmYup, I did write that; I meant to write “right handed set-up guy”. Still I’ll stick my neck out, and say that I think that applies to nearly all set-up relievers. They might be worth that much, but I’m skeptical.
(For the record, Neshek, Sherril, Okajima and Shields earn, respectively: $395K, $395K, $1,125K and $3.4M).
Why am I skeptical? It’s not scientific (see my reasoning above) but the Mariners have shown that it’s entirely possible to piece together a very effective bullpen out of cast-offs, non-drafted free agents and low round draft picks for very little money.
The Angels have sported a very effective bullpen for years now, yet they haven’t built if from $8M per year free agents. This year the Red Sox picked up Okajima for one fifth of Eric Gagne’s salary.
Even if those guys are “worth $8M” it’s been possible even for one of the less lauded GMs in the game to find guys who are as good for a fraction of that price.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:44 pm58-Do you expect Shawn Green?
July 16th, 2007 at 2:50 pmWhy am I skeptical? It’s not scientific (see my reasoning above) but the Mariners have shown that it’s entirely possible to piece together a very effective bullpen out of cast-offs, non-drafted free agents and low round draft picks for very little money.
I agree with you totally — my point was not to argue that you have to overpay to build a solid bullpen, but rather to challenge your assertion that setup men are among the least valuable players on a roster.
July 16th, 2007 at 2:58 pm52. I’m not sold on Green in the role because of his lack of velocity. I like Lowe because he had experience in the role last year, and Mickolio because of the experience he is getting in the minors in a late inning role. I know Lowe isn’t back to 100% yet, but in a few weeks I think he will be pretty close to where he was before he was injured. My take on Mickolio is he is just nasty.
July 16th, 2007 at 3:16 pm62 - are you not sold on Sherrill because of his similar lack of velocity?
July 16th, 2007 at 3:36 pm63- Sherril is a lefty
July 16th, 2007 at 3:39 pmAre you not sold on Trevor Hoffman because of an even more significant lack of velocity?
How about Takashi Saito? Justin Duchscherer? Pat Neshek? Al Reyes? Akinori Otsuka? Heath Bell? Scott Linebrink?
To say that anyone who doesn’t throw harder than 94 can’t be an 8th inning setup man is foolish.
July 16th, 2007 at 3:41 pm#62I’m not sold on Green in the role because of his lack of velocity.
Ah, er, (politely) Did you read Dave’s post? He menitoned the velocity argument and said it’s pretty much a dumb reason to overlook Green.
I mean, I’m willing to entertain an argument that says velocity actually is important, but could you sketch the basic outlines of why you think so? Green is producing results with a 92 mph fastball, and he’s doing it with what are typically repeatable skills (K’s + induced GBs). The best con-Green argument I’ve seen in the thread so far is that his HR/FB is unsustainable, though Dave has put forward evidence to indicate that maybe it is.
What is the velocity argument based on?
July 16th, 2007 at 3:47 pmI wonder if the sportswriters look at upgrading the bullpen as a priority more due to possibility than due to need. Relievers don’t seem like they’ll be difficult to find this trading deadline. Our other needs (except for bringing up Jones)? Not so easy to fill.
July 16th, 2007 at 3:50 pmNot to mention that we’re up to our ears in quality bullpen arms and some quality bats in AAA right now. Balentien, Jones and Clement are all possible impact bats in our minor league system. As far as relievers, Putz, Sherrill, White, Green, Lowe, Mateo, Reitsma, O’Flaherty, Rowland-Smith, Morrow, and even Mickolio. We have MR’s coming out of our ears and to think that out of that group we can’t find 7 solid relievers, especially out of guys like Green who’s results are phenomenal. The biggest glaring hole we have has to be our SP, and it’s not like we have any help coming soon. As far as “impact” arms in the minor leagues, who do we look to if an injury happens or we see Pre-DL Weaver again? Baek, Feierabend, Campillo? Spending a bit in a trade for a starter makes more sense than going after a bullpen guy, especially when we have young cheap guys who can do the job and do it well (Putz, Sherrill, Green).
July 16th, 2007 at 3:51 pmDave,
I think you nailed it. Our bullpen has been pretty good and when its had its faults it has seemed like the way it was managed was what caused whatever failure.
What do you think is the biggest need for our team to move forward? A power bat (simply a call up of Jones?), or a starter?
July 16th, 2007 at 3:56 pm65- Not trying to argue here, just have never heard Sean, and Trevor compared in the same breath before.
I won’t argue the point either that someone who can’t throw 94, or more can’t be an 8th inning reliever. Your right, to say so would be dumb.
What I am saying is Green doesn’t have any experience in that situation, maybe you are correct, and he is ready for the role. I just have the gut feeling that maybe he is in the right place now, and the added pressure of setup is something he will have trouble adapting to.
66- Why is velocity important? Well it covers up a myriad of weaknesses as we saw with with Morrow earlier in the year when he had success. Not sure if Morrow knew exactly where the ball was going though, and his luck changed after hitters got patient and made him throw strikes.
Lowe had a lot of success last year before going down because of placement, and velocity. No reason to think he couldn’t replicate that in a few weeks.
Is Green’s HR/FB rate sustainable? You can make a case either way untill it is proven in the field.
Is the role he is currently in more apt to give him the opportunity for a better HR/FB ratio? Now that I think is a better question.
Let’s get away from Sabremetrics for a second, and go with the pure pressure of coming in with two men on in the seventh, or eighth inning. Does Green have what it takes mentally to handle the transition?
If you think so, tell me why? I can’t tell you why not because I haven’t seen him in this situation, but I have seen a healthy Lowe.
To me it all comes down to experience in handling that type of situation.
Bottom line, I think the Mariner’s have what they need in house to get the answers they need for the bullpen. Is it Green, Lowe, or Mickolio? Is it someone else, but I think we agree it isn’t going to be Reitsma this year.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:24 pmGiven that Lowe is returning from serious surgery unusually rapidly, there are reasons to wonder if he could or should try to replicate 2006 in just a few weeks.
Also, velocity can only cover serious flaws for so long. We’re seeing that lately with Morrow’s wildness. We’ve seen it before with the likes Matt Thornton and Matt Anderson who could hit close to 100mph on the radar gun and still not sustain a major league career.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:31 pmWith Lowe close to coming off the DL why would we need to find that power right arm. I know we aren’t sure how Lowe will do but we should at least wait to see how his rehab goes before we look for the power arm.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:33 pmI am worried about Lowe. Losing 8-10mph on his fastball is not a good sign, especially after the type of injury that he had. Lowe throwing 88-90mph is not an upgrade over who we have in the pen right now. I don’t think the M’s should call him up until September or at least until his arm strength is back in the 95mph + range.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:36 pm#65 writes:Let’s get away from Sabremetrics for a second, and go with the pure pressure of coming in with two men on in the seventh, or eighth inning. Does Green have what it takes mentally to handle the transition?
Did you look at the fangraphs that Dave linked to? It sure looks like Green has succeeded in just those situations.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:39 pmWhy is velocity important? Well it covers up a myriad of weaknesses as we saw with with Morrow earlier in the year when he had success. Not sure if Morrow knew exactly where the ball was going though, and his luck changed after hitters got patient and made him throw strikes
Then his velocity is not covering up for poor control, or else he’d still be getting guys out because he’s still thowing as hard as he did at the start of the year. Velocity is nice. It’s not the only thing, especially when it comes to production today. For future potential, I think velocity is great, because if you have a kid with a 98 mph fastball, you might be able to teach him to thow a spliter or a slider and make him an ace. JJ Putz comes to mind. If you have a guy who’s a junkballer-supreme, like Baek, he’s probably what he is already. Green today is good enough to pitch in important situations.
Does Green have what it takes mentally to handle the transition?
I dunno. Only one way to find out. Is Lowe completely healthy again, and able to be as good as he was before? I dunno, only one way to find out.
Bottom line, I think the Mariner’s have what they need in house to get the answers they need for the bullpen
Yes, complete agreement. There’s minimal chance to upgrade the team by adding to the bullpen. We need to find our 4 extra wins somewhere else.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:42 pmre: 18
“Change of paste”???? Maybe he should switch to Crest.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:42 pmbearman (#18) I strongly suggest . . . as a change of paste.
I think Gaylord Perry was the master of that pitch.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:43 pmspeaking of relievers, i just read that woods was DFAd…i thought he was just heading back down to tacoma…anyone know what’s up?
July 16th, 2007 at 4:44 pm70.
Did you not see Dave’s run down of Green’s performances in high leverage situations thus far this year? Green has performed admirably in every high-pressure situation we’ve thrown at him. I’m not sure why you have greater faith in Mark Lowe (who hasn’t pitched in nearly a year and is coming off an unprecedented elbow surgery) or Kam Mickolio (who’s never pitched in the majors). Not to say that Lowe and/or Mickolio aren’t valuable pieces, just that we can only guess what they are much larger risks than Sean Green.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:48 pmConsidering that Lowe’s injury was possibly career-ending, there’s ample reason to question that he will ever regain his previous velocity, let alone be fully ready in three to four weeks.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:54 pmTeams that trade talent for middle relief are stupid.
July 16th, 2007 at 4:55 pmThis was a fun post to read. I’ve dubbed Green “The Wiffleballer” over the last couple of months, and I always have fun watching him come into a game and get the job done. As for his high walk rate, the majority of those walks did come in his first 10 games (12) and half of THOSE walks came in his first 3 games (6). He’s been much better over the last month+ at keeping his walks down, though whether this is his true nature or not, I do not know. What I do know is that a guy with very good groundball tendencies and a low HR rate has a place in the pen, and could more than likely succeed in a setup role. I certainly think he’s a better option than anyone else that has tried this year, and I am not a fan of the idea of trading for a power arm to help out. Let the Wiffleballer have his shot.
July 16th, 2007 at 5:00 pm71- That is a good point, and we won’t know for at least couple more weeks. I think we should be encouraged by what we have seen so far.
74- He has according to the small sample, but can he do that on a regular basis once the role is his? Dave is way smarter than me when it comes to this stuff, I would go with Dave’s opinion over mine any day.
71/75- Morrows success wasn’t sustainable because of his lack of control, and I think I alluded to that in my post. Once hitters got patient he lost his edge, in other words they stopped swinging at the bad ones.
75- Where do you find those four extra wins? I am a big fan of calling up Jones on the offensive, and defensive side. We need a RH setup man. The final piece is do we trade for another starter? I just don’t see a reasonable trade partner out there that would supply us with enough improvement to get over the hump to weigh against what we would have to give up.
I figured the M’s for a .500 team this year at best. I am giddy they are where they are, but I don’t see the pieces out there to help us get by the four teams ahead of us unless they run into injuries.
July 16th, 2007 at 5:00 pmWhat I am saying is Green doesn’t have any experience in that situation, maybe you are correct, and he is ready for the role.
Great, let’s sign Goose Gossage. He has lots of experience. Or we could bring in Shiggy!
The “OMG OH NOES HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE” line would have kept JJ out of the closer’s role, and basically means you can never use a rookie in (fill in the blank) role, since BY DEFINITION they have no MLB experience.
As for the idea that you’ve got to throw hard to be an effective reliever: Shiggy and Ryan Franklin say “Hi”. (In fact, in Franklin’s case, outside of his lucky run in 2002, his career says he’s better out of the pen, by a lot.)
July 16th, 2007 at 5:23 pmWhere do you find those four extra wins? I am a big fan of calling up Jones on the offensive, and defensive side
On the Weekend roundup thread, I said we need +0.6 runs per game over the rest of the year to get us the wins we need. Jones’s defense in LF will give us +0.2. If he hits like we think he could, that’s maybe another +0.1. Halfway there with one simple callup!
The rest, I don’t know. Pitching Green instead of Reitsma in setup situations will help, but I’m not sure how to measure it. I don’t think it saves 0.3 runs / game, but it wouldn’t hurt. An upgrade over Weaver/HoRam/Baek/Feierabend is probably where it should come from, but I don’t think there’s anything out there to trade for. I’m sort of stuck thinking best case is Jones give us +0.3, better use Green/Sherrill/Reitsma/Morrow gives us +0.1, and the other 0.2 comes from some combination of guys being better (HoRam/Weaver pitching like #5 starters, Sexson regressing to the mean with a vengence) and luck (Vlad trips over his luggage, Kronk pulls a muscle gritting his teeth, etc.).
I don’t think trading for any of the guys mentioned as RH setup guys will give us the boost we need. I agree with Steve T in #81
July 16th, 2007 at 5:25 pmGreen’s given up 1 home run in 35 innings. Whether you call it “bound” or “regressing to the mean,” his home run rate will go up.
No, not necessarily. Will it probably go up? Sure, but it’s by no means required or “bound” to go up.
So far in the season, Green has faced 154 batters. 31 have struck out, 18 have walked, and 1 has been hit by a pitch. The other 102 batters found a way to end their plate appearance by putting the bat on the ball. Roughly speaking, of the 102 batters who put the bat on the ball, 56% hit a ground ball, 25% hit a line drive, and 19% hit a fly ball.
If his GB/LD/FB rates hold (and I don’t see why they would significantly change), over the rest of the season, if Green faced another 150 batters, we would expect about 20 fly balls. If we think he’s a “true” 10% HR/FB pitcher, then we would expect him to allow 2 home runs over the rest of the season.
But we’re talking about really small numbers here. If he has a 90% chance to not allow a home run on any given fly ball, he has about a 12% chance to not allow a home run over a sample of 20 fly balls. He also has about a 27% chance to allow just one home run, and about a 29% chance to allow two home runs. There’s also something like a 4% chance he could allow 5 or more home runs.
Anyway, my real point here is just that with a pitcher who gets so many strikeouts, walks, and ground balls, there’s not much room left over for fly balls, and hence, home runs. Most pitchers in Green’s position will see their HR/F regress to some mean over the second half of the season, but many of them won’t. Regression to the mean is something that is true in the long run, and half of a season is not very long for a relief pitcher. So nothing is “bound” to happen over that small of a sample size.
July 16th, 2007 at 5:44 pmNice numbers Mat.
Just a rider, as noted elsehwere, because he is both a reliever and an extreme sinkerballer Green’s ‘true’ HR/FB rate may well be in the 4-8% range.
July 16th, 2007 at 5:52 pm84- We weren’t 13 games over .500 when we started experimenting with Putz. It’s a whole new ballgame, we are in a pennant race. when you are 13 games under you can do whatever you want because it doesn’t matter, you are waiting for next year. I’m not saying moving Green to setup is the wrong move, just looking at all the options.
85- I really think the health of the guys in front of us is going to determine where we end up. Sexson reverting to second half form is another factor. I am sure you noticed how empty the middle of the order is lately. How long can we deal with that and keep pace?
July 16th, 2007 at 5:57 pmCouldn’t agree more…Green’s G/F ratio this season is 3.17, which is in the range of Derek Lowe, unquestionably one of the best groundballers in the game.
Green’s strikeout rate this year is better than Lowe has ever had, except for one year, in 2001.
This is Derek Lowe, the guy who was Boston’s closer between 1999 and 2001, and won 21 games as a starter in 2002, and is essentially a one-pitch pitcher.
There’s no reason Sean Green can’t be a dominant late-inning reliever if only the M’s would give him a chance at that role.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:02 pmIchi DH tonight
July 16th, 2007 at 6:03 pmEllison in CF
It seems like most championship teams in recent memory have had some noteable rookies playing vital roles. What if the Angels had been afraid to use K-Rod in important situations back in 2002? For young players to be able to prove themselves, you have to give them a chance to.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:07 pmI am sure you noticed how empty the middle of the order is lately. How long can we deal with that and keep pace?
The lineup has holes, but it has all year, and we’re scoring 5.0 runs a game. With out pitching staff, that ought to be good enough for 90 or 91 wins this year, given that we’ve been a little lucky in the first half. I don’t think 91 wins will make the playoffs, hence we need to add something, or hope for a lot of luck.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:12 pmRe #88: So in other words, johnb, in a pennant race, you can only do the things you already know don’t work, because it’s too risky to try something new that might?
July 16th, 2007 at 6:12 pmWith out pitching staff
Ah, #92 should read “with our pitching staff”. Althought “without” might make some sense too, at times.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:13 pmI don’t think cautious conservatism is invariably a hallmark of successful enterprises. I would certainly not endorse it now, when the Mariners are not being successful enough.
I’m not even that confident about 96 wins being enough to win a berth in the post season. Don’t the Tigers and Indians have a lot of games left against the Royals and the White Sox?
July 16th, 2007 at 6:23 pmI agree that George Sherrill would be great as a set-up guy. I checked his stats on right-handed hitters so far this season from baseball+reference.com. If I looked at them correctly they are:
BA=.200 / OBP = .195 / SLG = .250 / BA on balls-in-play = .250. Wow!
It would be great to see him get more innings pitched.
July 16th, 2007 at 6:46 pmI think McLaren must have read your post, Dave. It’s the 8th inning with the Ms up by 2, and look who’s on the mound. Mr. Sean Green. One quick out already. Way to go, Sean!! Go prove it to the Ms that we don’t need a Lidge or Farnsworth around for the 8th inning.
July 16th, 2007 at 9:08 pmI remember back in ‘97 (maybe it was a year or two later) when the M’s had two sets of righty-lefty reliever teams to set up whoever was closing then (Sasaki?). Jeff Nelson and Arthur Rhodes usually worked the seventh and eighth innings and, when they needed rest, Jose Paniagua and Norm Charlton usually worked earlier. It worked pretty well and I think this year’s team has that same capability with Sherrill and Green as one team and O’Flaherty and someone else (maybe Lowe) as the second team. If nothing else, it gives McLaren lots of mix-and-match possibilities in the last two-three innings.
As for trade possibilities, it could be the Mariners decide getting a starter will cost too much so they target one more decent reliever to shorten the game, letting the bullpen more of the burden each game.
July 16th, 2007 at 9:56 pmYou’re aging Spokane Dude. That was the 2001 bullpen. 1997 was the horror of Bobby Ayala, Bob Wells, Heathcliff Slocumb, Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric.
To be fair, some or most of those guys might have been good in 1997, but I only remember how lousy most were in 1998.
As to “shortening the game” surely you aren’t suggesting adding to a 12 man bullpen?
July 17th, 2007 at 12:38 amLet’s be honest, if we trade for Lidge, Otsuka, and Gagne, we could get rid of all of our starters besides King Felix and have everyone pitch one inning a game. Problem solved.
This is the only situation where trading for a reliever would help this team… we need starting pitching.
July 17th, 2007 at 12:54 amNo, not necessarily. Will it probably go up? Sure, but it’s by no means required or “bound” to go up.
Look, obviously it is not a certainty that it will go up. He could get hit by a bus today and then it certainly would not go up. My point, of course, is that if he continues to pitch this year, his HR rate will almost certainly go up. All of the historical evidence says that it will.
July 17th, 2007 at 8:42 amMy point, of course, is that if he continues to pitch this year, his HR rate will almost certainly go up. All of the historical evidence says that it will.
If by “almost certainly” you mean it has about a 2/3 chance of increasing compared to a 1/3 chance of staying the same or dropping even lower, fine. But I don’t consider that to be “almost certainly.”
July 17th, 2007 at 2:09 pm