Weekend Roundup
The Mariners have to be at least somewhat pleased that they were able to split the series with a Tigers team that, let’s face it, is just better than the Mariners. Winning two games against that offense and a rotation of Miller-Bonderman-Rogers-Verlander is a tall order, and the M’s were able to keep themselves from taking a step backward against a good team. For most teams, the path the playoffs is playing .500 ball against contenders and beating the tar out of the pretenders, so there’s nothing wrong with splitting a series with a team that has a claim as the best in baseball.
With that positive disclaimer out of the way – the M’s got outplayed in every possible way this weekend and should count themselves very fortunate that they won a pair of games. As a team, they hit .231/.286/.358, but thanks to the fact that they got a lot of timely hits, they were able to put up 19 runs in four games. A .644 OPS does not often translate to 4.75 runs per game. On the flip side, the Tigers hit .297/.370/.483 but scored just 23 runs, significantly less than you’d expect from an .853 OPS. Pretty much all the clutch plays went in favor of the M’s, and well, that’s not a recipe for success.
Essentially, the M’s won two close games because they hit well at crucial times, Bruce Froemming blew a call, and the bullpen was unhittable. But in the other two games, the team didn’t really stand much of a chance, getting outclassed by a better opponent right out of the gates. The Mariners can look at this weekend as a success in the standings, no doubt, but if they were looking at this series as a litmus test for how well the team currently stacks up to the cream of the American League crop, well, there are reasons to worry. The Tigers were, without a doubt, the best team on the field this weekend. This roster, as currently composed, will be a significant underdog in any playoff series it might play.
One of the big stars of the series for the Tigers was center fielder Curtis Granderson, who torched Seattle pitchers on the way to an 8 for 16 series with two doubles, a triple, and a home run. Every time I turned around, Granderson was drilling a fastball into the alley and heading for extra bases. And, you know, he reminded me of someone. When I looked up the numbers that reflect a particular skillset, well, take a look for yourself:
Center Field BB% K% LD% BABIP ISO Granderson 7.5% 22.6% 23.0% 0.358 0.273 Adam Jones 7.3% 22.6% 22.0% 0.357 0.283
When we talk about promoting Adam Jones, one of the initial reactions from the skeptics is that he strikes out too much, and his current numbers suggest that his current skillset won’t translate well to the major leagues. Curtis Granderson disagrees. They have, essentially, almost identical skillsets. Think the Tigers should option Granderson to Toledo to work on his plate discipline?
Now, granted, we can’t just take Jones’ numbers against PCL pitchers and stick them in a major league line-up and expect identical performance. But the idea that Jones’ lack of walks and relatively high number of strikeouts expose some hidden flaw that will cause him to flail away helplessly at major league pitchers is just a myth. Granderson made a smooth transition from Triple-A to the majors two years ago, and he wasn’t as good a player then as Jones is now.
When you watched this series, which player did you think was making a bigger contribution to the Tigers – Curtis Granderson or Sean Casey? Which hitter were you afraid of? If the Tigers had to choose between Casey and Granderson, who do you think they’d pick?
Are we belaboring the point? Probably. But you know, this is a point that needs to be made – the Mariners fourth best position player is currently in Triple-A while the team fights for a playoff spot. That’s absurd, and it requires attention.
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Excellent points Dave. My question is do you think Bavasi and McLaren have the courage to put Jones in the Mariners lineup this month? All the indications suggest they are taking the cop-out route essentially saying “we are winning so lets not mess with a good thing”. The M’s leadership has to be about the most frustrating group of people to watch in baseball outside of the Loria family.
Yet another great post Dave. Piggy-backing on question no #1, Vidro looked a little better this past weekend. I’m imagining that this is not going to help the “Free Adam Jones” campaign.
To bring Jones up, does Vidro need to fall completely on his face for a couple weeks? If the Vidro’s first half was “satisfactory” to the M’s management, I can’t help but think Vidro really helped his own chances of remaining in the lineup this weekend.
The entire weekend all I kept thinking was, we are a good starter and a good hitter away from competing with a team like the Tigers. That’s it, that’s how close this team is to being one of the elite teams and playing for the crown in October.
It seemed like Jamie Burke was atrocious at throwing people out. The Tigs were 5/5 in SB. Why did the Mariners sit out Betancourt, Sexson, and Johjima all in the same game? Raul looked like he needed a rest, boy was he limping.
[deleted, his he's not the NFL player, and his name isn't pacman]
Possibly their thinking is that a short dip is the best time to insert Jones to a) get the biggest bang/boost from his performance, b) ease Jones’ transition and c) minimize disruption to the team.
Not that I think these are GOOD reasons, but those are possible reasons…
1: I share your frustration. I just don’t understand the “let’s not mess with a good thing” I keep hearing and reading. At the moment, the M’s are the fifth best team in the AL. They are not in first place in either their division or the Wild Card race. By most measurable standards, the teams ahead of the M’s are better than they are.
The “don’t rock the boat” theory will not land the team in the playoffs. It will create a nice, entertaining, and better-than-expected season that will not be repeated next year by this aging lineup.
You point about Joes is well taken since he’s an instant upgrade that only requires roster shuffling. But in my mind, this weekend also highlighted the weakness of the Ms rotation. They need another arm. I know that you’re on record as only liking Buerhle but what about adding a guy who is roughly league average or perhaps a tick better? One name that comes to mind is Arroyo. I know in the past, USSM didn’t like the idea of sending a young CF prospect for him but perhaps the Ms could start a dialog by offering Wlad + something less useful. Does that make any sense?
Prospect Insider has said Adam Jones will be up soon. Just sit back and let it happen.
Beniitec, absolutely, half of which might be solved by just calling up Jones. And if Mickolio can really help out in the bullpen as well, and Lowe can actually contribute later this year, our bullpen still has room to get better, which is amazing. Can you imagine if we still had Soriano back there? Good lord, that might just have us approaching one-of-the-top-bullpens-of-all-time territory.
My question is do you think Bavasi and McLaren have the courage to put Jones in the Mariners lineup this month?
If they don’t, we’re screwed, so we should all hope so.
To bring Jones up, does Vidro need to fall completely on his face for a couple weeks?
I’d argue that he’s already fallen completely on his face. His recent hot streak has raised his July totals to .275/.341/.350, and his monthly OPS splits now read .756, .694, .697, and .691. He’s been given 260 at-bats since May 1st while consistently posting an OPS south of .700. He’s already proven that he doesn’t deserve the job.
It seemed like Jamie Burke was atrocious at throwing people out.
They stole those bases on Weaver, not Burke.
At the moment, the M’s are the fifth best team in the AL.
This is something the crowd who believes in the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mantra needs to realize – it is broke. If the season ended today, the Mariners wouldn’t be in the playoffs, and they’re clearly inferior to the four teams they’re trying to catch. Unless your goal is to lose the wild card race, the team has to improve.
One name that comes to mind is Arroyo.
No thanks.
I agree that the M’s looked overmatched against the Tigers, despite the split. I’m confident that this M’s team can get to 90 wins, but that’s not enough to reach the playoffs in the AL. The team has to get better and bringing Jones up should be part of that.
And I know people blast Sexson’s defense but Broussard’s performance at first yesterday was embarrassing and should do away with any thoughts of having him replace Sexson on any kind of a regular basis. Broussard makes me cringe whenever I see him in the field. I like his bat but he’s easily the worst defensive player on the team and I don’t see an everyday role for him because of that. If Jones is brought up and Vidro becomes the PH/DH bat on the bench then Broussard is the odd man out and will probably be trade bait.
I finally made it up from Portland for my first game this year yesterday. Dave already said it but Jamie Burke had nothing to do with the steals. Each time, the runner was long gone before Weaver had even let go of the ball.
The other amazing thing you notice in person more than on TV is how good the Tigers were at fouling off pitches. They fouled and fouled until they got something to hit. It was very easy to tell the difference between the two teams yesterday. The M’s need some help.
Do you even agree with the premise that the rotation has to be upgraded? If so, who then?
Just to add a note to your 4th paragraph, Dave, Curtis Granderson had some praise for Ichiro.
It’s nice to see another baseball player want to emulate aspects of Ichiro’s “game”, rather than get all bulked up and become another power hitter.
You know, if the M’s could improve their offensive production, they wouldn’t need another pitcher.
If they win all of Felix’s remaining starts and go .500 when the other four start, that’s 96 wins, and 96 should win the Wild Card, if not the division. If they go .750 with Felix and .500 with everyone else, that’s 91 wins, which probably gives them a 50/50 shot at the playoffs.
Now, if you assume the M’s deal now for a great starter, and they go .750 in his starts, .750 in Felix’s starts, and .500 with everyone else, you get… 95 wins. Which is probably the wild card, too, but probably at the cost of Adam Jones.
So here’s the question — Assuming the second scenario (.750/Felix, .500/other four), can Adam Jones generate the 4-5 wins needed over the last 73 games? Is he worth 4-5 wins more than Vidro and Raul in LF? Dave?
Oh, oops, I meant to add “….in his MLB.com blog”
(I’m ALWAYS forgetting something; we need a preview window
)
Do you even agree with the premise that the rotation has to be upgraded? If so, who then?
This is not a rosterbating post. Not every thread has to disintegrate into trade speculation.
So here’s the question — Assuming the second scenario (.750/Felix, .500/other four), can Adam Jones generate the 4-5 wins needed over the last 73 games? Is he worth 4-5 wins more than Vidro and Raul in LF? Dave?
No one is worth 4-5 wins over 73 games. Not even Albert Pujols. I’ve got the Jones/Vidro swap, with Ibanez moving to DH, pegged as just shy of a 2 win upgrade over the rest of the year.
The Granderson comparison is intriguing. Granderson’s a left-handed bat though, which has probably helped him somewhat in the majors. According to Granderson’s bio, he bats left, but throws right. I’ve always wondered about that—that is, are players like Granderson (or Ichiro for that matter) right-handed but taught from an early age to bat lefty? If so, it seems as though all young kids should be taught this skill from a young age, no?
This is something the crowd who believes in the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mantra needs to realize – it is broke.
Here’s how I think of it.
Let’s say you were in Vegas, playing a very simple game of flipping coins: you win on a heads, you lose on a tails. With a fair coin, you have a 50% chance of getting a heads on each toss.
Then, you are given a chance to change the game in such a way that you have a 55% chance of getting a heads on each flip.
If you are McLaren, you say, “No thanks, I’ve just flipped heads 6 times out of the last 10, and I don’t want to mess it up.”
#15 – Aren’t the M’s at or near the top offensively as a team? How does the pitching compare to the rest of the league?
Actually this is a rosterbating thread.
You’ve highlighted one move that could be made.
Then there is this:
“Question:
At the moment, the M’s are the fifth best team in the AL.
Answer:
This is something the crowd who believes in the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mantra needs to realize – it is broke. If the season ended today, the Mariners wouldn’t be in the playoffs, and they’re clearly inferior to the four teams they’re trying to catch. Unless your goal is to lose the wild card race, the team has to improve.”
So if discussing pitching is off limits in a thread that touches on changes that need to be made in order to improve the M’s playoff chances, is promoting Adam Jones the only necessary move? It’s an honest question.
13: The rotation obviously needs an upgrade, but the “WHO” question and “HOW” do you get him questions are even larger.
I think they might be more able to upgrade the back end of the bullpen. The bullpen has been a strength but Morrow has been wild and Reitsma is starting to give me the same quesy feeling as Bobby Ayala. I sure would like to see Soriano back in our pen …
BTW, anyone else notice Adam Jones played RF yesterday. Hmmm …
Thiel has a column today saying it is premature to bring up Jones. Sigh. When does he think it would be mature?
He’s been playing RF off and on for weeks.
He’s been playing RF off and on for weeks.
#10 Dave, I would say Ibanez has dropped off significantly more so than Turbo. Over June and July Ibanez has a lower OPS than Vidro. There are two giant balck holes in the top of our lineup, both need benched.
25: Really?! He’s been in RF way more OFF than ON
So if discussing pitching is off limits in a thread that touches on changes that need to be made in order to improve the M’s playoff chances, is promoting Adam Jones the only necessary move? It’s an honest question.
Sure, if you don’t mind 16 posts from various posters on why we should be able to get Johan Santana for Jose Vidro, or so on.
Yeah, HoRam+Weaver is probably untenable at the bottom end of the rotation, unless they get a visit from the Jose Lima and Aaron Sele Pitching Luck Fairy. But it’s their place, and turning threads into huge speculation wankfests on who’s behind door #3… I can see why they don’t want it.
Actually this is a rosterbating thread.
I didn’t realize that you were an author now.
So if discussing pitching is off limits in a thread that touches on changes that need to be made in order to improve the M’s playoff chances, is promoting Adam Jones the only necessary move? It’s an honest question.
We’ve made it abundantly clear that the majority of the readers here just have no desire to see every thread turn into trade speculation conversations. I gave you guys a 400 comment thread for that at the all-star break. If you really want to go talk about how awesome it would be to trade for Bronson Arroyo, there are a hundred places you can do that. This thread isn’t one of those.
EC: With all due respect, asking Dave’s opinion concerning whether the rotation should be a target, and if so, is it even a fixable one hardly constitutes a wankfest nor does it represent hijacking this particular thread.
I’ve always wondered about that—that is, are players like Granderson (or Ichiro for that matter) right-handed but taught from an early age to bat lefty?
Most players who bat left, throw right are natural lefthanders who learn to throw righthanded because there are a significant number of positions where you do not put a lefthanded thrower. Shortstop in particular, and since the best athletes tend to be shortstops in youth leagues and high school, it ends up affecting not a few players who end up at other positions later.
I know it’s not on subject but thanks to all of you who commented on my fill-on stint broadcasting for the M’s last week. Even the negative comments.
It was a crazy situation, especially being thrown onto the telecast and then that crazy play, but I had a great time, I love the Mariners, and although I was a little rusty and my voice is my voice, I think I conveyed the joy I felt being there and covering the M’s. And I think you could follow what was going on.
In any event, this is a terrific blog. And I learn more about the team from you guys than from anywhere else.
If anyone is interested, I have a blog as well. It’s more humor oriented. But for those who do enjoy my act, I invite you to check it out. Today I have posted my travelogue on my Seattle trip.
http://kenlevine.blogspot.com/
Thanks again.
Ken Levine
In the first game of the Detroit series, Ken Levine quoted GB/FB %’s for Andrew Miller. Not your garden variety stat. I was pleased and thought Mr. Levine did a fine job.
Ken Levine = classy
I liked your call on that play. Sort of a combination of disbelief and “what-the-heck is happening”?
I thought you did a really good job Ken, your commentary was laugh out loud funny. I hope you’re able to return the next time the Mariners need a fill in.
I’m not sure about this:
“But in the other two games, the team didn’t really stand much of a chance, getting outclassed by a better opponent right out of the gates.”
Wasn’t the difference Friday the Sheffield GS after a close non-called third strike? Or did I cross my mental streams again?
Ninja Jordan and Mike Snow,
Actually, it’s not uncommon for kids to be taught to bat left handed even though they are a natural righty. It’s far easier to teach them to hit with the opposite hand than to throw that way. Alot of kids have crazy baseball parents that think batting left handed is a big leg up and teach them to do it from a young age. My crazy baseball dad even went a step further and tested all of me and my brothers dominant eye. It’s an easy test to do, and you will be at an advantage if you bat with your dominant eye is closest to the pitcher. My right eye is dominant, so in a classic left handed stance, my right eyes is better positioned. Hence the desire for me to hit left handed.
Dave,
Do you mind if I ask who your audience is for these Adam Jones postings?
The only reason I bring that up is because I think at this point everyone who is a regular here agrees with you. You’re preaching to the choir.
Are you posting the Jones discussions in the hopes that they will be picked up by other media sources and hopefully adding to the voices calling for this move, or do you think that people here are still unconvinced that Adam Jones in Seattle is a good thing?
Would it be off-form to say that I ALWAYS look forward to a stint by Ken Levine on the broadcast team? Fun when the team was in the pits and even more fun when the team’s doing well…
My kid will be learning to bat left handed, no doubt.
And Ken, it was a pleasant surprise to find you filling in — I think you do I nice job, and I appreciate your unique brand of humor. “Radio voice” is highly overrated — more important is a broadcaster’s ability to entertain in the absence of visuals. I think you did a nice job of that despite the rust.
Thanks for filling in.
Are you posting the Jones discussions in the hopes that they will be picked up by other media sources and hopefully adding to the voices calling for this move, or do you think that people here are still unconvinced that Adam Jones in Seattle is a good thing?
One thing I’ve had to adjust to, as the blog has grown in size, is the pretty extensive reach our readership has. There’s absolutely a large portion of USSM readers that aren’t convinced that Adam Jones in Seattle is a good thing – they might not post in the comments, and people may not be aware of the fact that they read the blog, but our audience has grown well beyond the core base of commenters here.
I’m glad I didn’t stop banging the pitch selection drum in regards to Felix after most of the commenters were convinced, for example.
37: thanks for the post arbeck.
Btw, arbeck, do you think it would be worth it to teach your kids to bat lefty even though their ‘dominant eye’ is left (and thus further away from the batter in a lefty stance)? It seems the best thing to do would be to have them bat whatever their dominant eye is, and let them alone with it.
Ninja Jordan,
That’s what my dad did. My two brothers and I are all right handed. I’m the only one that hit left handed. Of course then when we were about 10, he tried to get us to switch hit, and I just felt more comfortable from the right side. Kind of screwed up his plans.
On the radio yesterday, Dave Valle was explaining that we shouldn’t compare Vidro to other DHs, we should compare him to other #2 hitters. So the fact that he has no power, speed, or walks means nothing, because he does all the things you want a #2 hitter to do, like take pitches and move runners over. It really hit home that there’s not really such a thing of too much “bring Adam Jones up” drum-beating here, because for the average fan it’s an uphill battle to understand why a AAA player who strikes out a lot would be a good replacement for a guy with a relatively high batting average.
Dave,
This point was covered somewhat in the game thread for Saturday’s game, but it seemed that Mac exhibited poor bullpen management in that game.
First, was Batista gassed? I think he was just south of 100 pitches (Baseball reference has him at 96)…so why pull him? I don’t recall him throwing high stress innings (Game logs show no innings where he faced more than 5 batters, but arguably the 4th was high stress @ 22 pitches thrown).
Now, I’m as much of a Green fan as the next guy…but I’m not sure he needed to be in there at that time. Further, the Granderson triple was significant, but the RBI groundout was a tradeoff I think worth taking at that point in the game (up 5, 8th inning). Then Reitsma…good lord.
Then we burn JJ; and though he looked awesome, it was a perfect example of using a high-leverage reliever in a low-leverage situation. To me, the high leverage point late in the ball game was in the 8th with 1 out and 2 on, Pudge up to bat. Fangraphs seems to confirm this as well.
Then, JJ come in against Casey…and the 3 batters in the 9th in relatively lower stress situations. That the game didn’t get away from them was lucky, rather than any example of managerial acumen. Am I missing something?
Dave Valle was explaining that we shouldn’t compare Vidro to other DHs, we should compare him to other #2 hitters…
Thanks to the awesome Baseball-Reference, that’s easy to do.
The Mariners #2 hitters have hit .266/.330/.355 this year. Compared with other major league #2 hitters, that’s 18% below average. The only AL teams who have gotten less production from their #2 hitters are Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Minnesota.
The five AL teams with the highest production from their #2 hitters to date: Boston, Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, and Cleveland.
Dave Valle is wrong.
Dave Valle is wrong
And we are surprised by this? I’m only surprised when he says something right.
I guess I’d be one of those people that reads the blog constantly, but never posts (first post by the way).
I’d have to say that I totally agree with Dave on continuing to post things like calling up AJ and Felix’s pitch selection. I talk baseball with my Dad all the time, who is basically your everyday, casual fan who thinks they have some extra insight about baseball. However, every time we have talked about calling up AJ recently I have to explain to him why Raul can’t play defense anymore and why Vidro’s .290 average means absolutely nothing.
I’m sure new people come to the site every day and not everybody is going to search through anything that isn’t on the main page. So continuing to advocate bringing up Jones can only help educate the casual fan base. A lot of people still only think of AJ as the kid who couldn’t handle MLB pitching or get reads on fly balls last summer (My Dad being an example).
I say keep hammering the point home. The more casual fans that get converted the better.
Whoever the sidekick is for Mitch on KJR was talking bad about Mariners “web sites” this morning as a result of the apparently untrue rumor regarding Jones. He was praising Geoff Baker’s blog while saying that thre rest of the “web sites” are just for lonely guys who want to chat about trades and stuff.
Ironically I think Baker himself would give this site and Lookout Landing a lot more credit than Mitch’s little buddy did. This Jones thing has unfortunately cast “web sites” (as though they can all be lumped together) in a poor light. If only talk show gasbags would pay as much attention when one of the authors of this site makes another well-reasoned prediction that is borne out over time.
Maybe if you guys had a peurile contest denigrating women every year they would pay more attention.
Jose Vidro = Doug Strange
I think that the current offenders, Vidro, Ibanez, Weaver, Mendoza (er, Sexson) will get until the trade deadline, with the idea being that maybe someone gets hot and has a wee bit of trade value. Hope we’re still in it then.
I’m a 54 year old guy who has played or watched baseball most of my life. I thought I knew a lot about it. Reading this blog has taught me more about baseball than I can even figure out how to express but it didn’t happen the first time few times I read it.
In many ways, I’m like some of the actual baseball people. When you think you already know you don’t really want to hear about new-fangled notions. All their lives, just like mine, a .290 batting average or a 3.90 ERA meant something. Now there’s a bunch of snotty kids that want to tell us we’re all wet. That news doesn’t go down in one bite. Keep repeating the information, though, and even us all-knowing older guys will eventually get it.
Keep telling us. It does no harm and could do lots of good.
46 – per ESPN.com “Batista (9-7) allowed five hits, struck out six and walked two before leaving with a finger blister McLaren described as minor.“
Curtis Granderson is very, very fast.
Also, as much as we bemoan Vidro’s crappy OPS and while we know his AVG is empty, he had 2 hits yesterday, and it’s clear that for him to get thrown away, that AVG would have to drop, even though it’s clear to our more informed POVs that he sucks.
Thanks Fasio! I didn’t get to catch that particular inning. Don’t you hate it when someone wants you do some chores (I’m talking about you honey!) in the middle of an Ms game?
Ok, so that clears up that mystery, but why Grover thought Reitsma was the answer, I’ll never guess…
Sorry…typo. I meant: thanks Fosio!
Everyone is complaining about Vidro’s bat (and well deserved) and Ibanez’s glove. Am I the only one who is worried about Ibanez’s bat? It has been Vidro like, and if I were running this organization I would promote Jones, bench both Ibanez and Vidro, and start Broussard.
56: DVR’s are a baseball fan’s best friend.
the M’s got outplayed in every possible way this weekend and should count themselves very fortunate that they won a pair of games
Isn’t this basically how the entire season has gone? We’re some 7 games ahead of where our 3rd order wins say we should be, and we’ve been outperforming our peripheral stats all season (except Weaver, who only started doing that recently).
I’m starting to wonder if there’s something systemic in our club that causes us to outperform our peripherals. The bullpen undoubtedly helps, but it has to be more than that.
Also, as much as we bemoan Vidro’s crappy OPS and while we know his AVG is empty, he had 2 hits yesterday, and it’s clear that for him to get thrown away, that AVG would have to drop, even though it’s clear to our more informed POVs that he sucks.
The open letter to the pitching coash worked pretty well. How about an open letter to the hitting coach that says “Tell McLaren that Vidro is irredeemably bad.”
Don’t compare Vidro to other DH’s? Huh?
Just add on to Dave’s comparison between Seattle’s #2 hitters and the rest of the AL – you also have to take into consideration the defensive and baserunning contributions those other #2 hitters are making.
For example, Seattle’s #2 hitters have 4 SBs – only DET, TOR, CLE and KC have fewer from that spot. I don’t have the time to look at the orders for each and determine who is hitting second for each AL team, and what position he plays, but that would also factor into Dave Valle’s illogical argument.
Dave Valle isn’t just wrong – he’s making the wrong comparison, because most #2 hitters are making contributions that Vidro simply cannot make. He can only be compared to other DHs, and as we all know, he comes up woefully short in that regard.
Here’s where I’m getting out of my depth, but perhaps being streaky singles hitters may contribute (i.e., having everyone in the lineup hit for relatively high averages means you’re bunching hits in a row more often than usual, which means more runs at key times).
(Well, maybe not; after writing that, that doesn’t make too much sense, but I’m scuffling here…)
59, I hear you. I usually rock the TiVo at home, but I was at her parent’s place…
I’m starting to wonder if there’s something systemic in our club that causes us to outperform our peripherals. The bullpen undoubtedly helps, but it has to be more than that.
We have the worst 4/5 starters in baseball, and for a while, we carried some tremendously awful mopup guys. So, when we lost, we lost big. When we win, we won small.
The bullpen effect is vastly overstated, by the way – the M’s bullpen last year was lights out too, but the M’s were 20-24 in one run games.
I don’t think there’s anything systemic, beyond a strong bullpen, that supports the M’s outperformance.
I think it’s just randomness.
When assigned to make up “random” sequences, almost everyone fails by putting too few apparent patterns in them, rather than too many. So what seems like it ought to have a reason, generally doesn’t. (with apologies to all you fibonacci sequence fans out there.)
I figured it out!!!
How to get the casual NW fan onbaord the AJ-Train.
Start a rumor that he is related to Bucky Jacobsen (last mid-season position player I think the fan-base got crazy for). Or that he has some NW roots, or is best friends with WFB.
sp. onboard != onbaord
67: It would also help to convince people that Jones is a ten-year major league veteran with lots of playoff experience.
When comparing Dave Valle, we should compare him to other catchers, not other broadcasters. So, for example, that .194/.286/.299 in 1991 needs to be put in its context. He simply can’t be compared to Mike Blowers, or in a larger sense, Joe Morgan, because they weren’t catchers.
it’s been a theme of Sandmeyer’s for the last week or so; lots of (well-warrented) praise for Bakers as someone who is in there every day covering the team, and a big thumbs down on the internet guys out there blogging away who can’t know whats going on because they are not connected.
Because Sandmeyer is so clearly connected … I’m sure he spends as much time around the Mariners players as Dave, Jeff or Jason …
And far less time talking to people in the organization.
65: Last year’s 20-24 record in one run games doesn’t necessarily mean bullpen impact is overstated. Crappy offense and starting pitching mean we’re more likely to be one run down than one run up at any given time. Maybe the bullpen had a huge effect helping us win as many of those games as we did?
hey, he’s in the press box every night, and was a batboy back in the day…
Now I am terrified that the Tigers are going to offer a trade straight up Casey for Jones.
Unproving prospect lacking plate discipline for a professional hitter!?!
Done and Done.
If he is, then I’m mistaken. But I’ve also spent enough time in press boxes to know that alone doesn’t make you any more informed or connected. I sat next to some serious morons in my day.
Just to add on to that: Being connected is about cultivating sources, not just hanging around and being there. Anyone can do that — it doesn’t qualify you as an expert.
#76-77– wasn’t being entirely serious there …
OK. Sorry.
53 (OscarM) – If there were a Post of the Year Award, I’d nominate you. Being open minded, especially at an age where you may think you know it all (teens and middle aged alike), is super awesome.
I’m 27, and have a rough time getting many of my friends in their 30’s and 40’s to understand my point of view. Your help in assimilating them would be appreciated.
However, every time we have talked about calling up AJ recently I have to explain to him why Raul can’t play defense anymore and why Vidro’s .290 average means absolutely nothing.
Vidro’s value is totally in his ability to hit singles. Yup, if he is hitting for a really high average (in the last week, he’s hitting around .500 I think) then he is quite valuable. But hitting .500 is not a repeatable skill, it’s a streak. Over a long period of time, he’s likely to hit .280, .290 something like that, and as everyone has pointed out, that is bad for a DH with no power.
Something similar with Raul, in yesterday’s game he made a great running catch at the wall. He was going full speed, reached out and just barely caught the ball. Great effort, cheers all around.
But that catch doesn’t mean he is a great fielder. Someone with more speed would have caught that ball easily. We have to look at how many balls he gets to and how many he fails to get to, compared to other fielders. The casual fan, and many supposedly knowledgable baseball people, just don’t get that.
I remember Carney Lansford as the ultimate for this type of thing. Carney made lots and lots of diving catches at third base, so most fans thought he was a great fielder. In reality, he had the range of a slug, and he had to dive to get to anything.
Hmmm. Do we really think it’d be a good idea to let Ramirez back? He pitched his last game on May 24th in that 13-12 heartbreaking loss to Tampa Bay. When we lost that game we were 21-22, so our record since then? 30-15 for a blistering .667 winning percentage, so should we really bring him back?
82 – Hey, yeah, what about that if it ain’t broke idea? Why doesn’t it apply to our pitching?
82- You are applying to same logic to HoRam’s return from the DL that the management is using in keeping AJ in Tacoma. The question isn’t about our record in his absence (or the team’s overall record so far), but rather whether we are better or worse with his return.
There is an AP report that Jake Woods had been DFA’d. Is Ho-Ram taking his place? Maybe AJ?
We have the worst 4/5 starters in baseball…
When someone named Felix, Washburn or Batista starts, the team is 31-20, with RS-RA of 230-196. We average 4.5 Runs/Game and give up 3.8. Pythagorean wins says we should be 30-21 in these games, so we’re about spot on.
When anyone else starts, we are 20-18, with RS-RA of 213-234. We average 5.6 runs/game (makes sense, assume most of these starts are against the back end of the other team’s rotation) and give up 6.2 runs/game. Pythagorean Wins predicts a 17-21 record in these games, so we are getting lucky to the tune of +3 wins. In one third of those games (12 of 38), we’ve given up 8 or more runs. Giving up 8 or more really kills your chance of winning (indeed, we are 1-11 in those games). By comparision, the team is less than half as likely to give up that many runs with one of the top three guys start (and remember, it’s not like Washburn and Batista are borderline Aces. They’re solid #4 guys).
If the offense continues to produce at current rates and we keep the same rotation, the odds are we will go something like 39-34 the rest of the way to end up wiht 90 wins. A respectable number, but unlikely to make the playoffs. For that, we probably need 94 wins.
Ideally, we’d upgrade at least one rotation spot, but frankly, with Buehrle off the market, I don’t see any really good candidats. So, can we make up 4 wins somehwere else?
Using straight Pythagorean (cause it’s easy), we’d need to add about 0.6 RS/G to be a 94 win team with our current pitching staff. We’d need to replace two Jose Vidro’s in the lineup with clones of Ichiro! to do that.
Now, Dave estimates that swapping Jones for Ibanez in LF will give us about +0.2 runs/game in upgraded defense. That’s about the same as replacing Vidro in the lineup with Kronk.
Putting Adam Jones in LF to upgrade our defense is about 1/3 of the improvement this team needs to make the playoffs without an inordinate amount of luck. It’s not everything we need, but wow, it sure is a big chunk of it. As big as swapping Vidro for Travis Hafner. Now, if Cleveland offered us Travis Hafner straight up for Jose Vidro and we turned it down, everyone in the baseball universe would think Bavasi had completely lost it. But refusing to bring up Jones is about the same as not making that trade.
And the longer we wait, the fewer games we have to make up ground.
83 – It is broke. Feierabend isn’t ready for the bigs yet — somebody’s got to pitch in that 5 spot. I made a similar argument for keeping Jeff Weaver around earlier this season when everyone wanted him DFA’d: This team is better if Ramirez can bring us something, so it’s worthwhile to see if he can. There just aren’t better alternatives than Ramirez pitching well.
Grady Sizemore strikes out a lot too. Who cares.
87- I agree; my point above (and I suspected 82’s was as well) was that the line-up is just as defective as the pitching and should be addressed.
89-No my point is that I don’t like bringing Ramirez back because in a pennant race you can’t have somebody as bad as he’s been (remember that 13.21 ERA?) pitching crucial games on the road.
80 – Normally, when I have to assimilate someone I just remind them that resistance is futile and start attaching the metal stuff making them Borg. Getting used to this way of looking at baseball was not unlike that process for me.
86 (JMHawkins) – Most excellent post. Though, when I read that, I don’t know if I should be scared or excited. Not knowing if/when he comes up is frustrating.
I could understand giving the guy a couple days after the PCL All-Star hoorah, but that was a week ago. What is the hold up? Every passing day is limiting the impact Jones’ upgrade will bring. As you stated If he puts up similar numbers to what he has in Tacoma (or even close to those) for September after we’ve fallen 7 or more games back, it will be far too late.
One thing I am not sure I’ve seen discussed, is where people think he should bat in the lineup. My assumption is Mac will stick him in the 7 hole or something lame like that. I think he’d be a good fit for the 2 hole. Of course, I’m sure he “strikes out too much” for that.
Dave,
In 65 you seemed to offer as evidence (at least partially) the team’s record in one run games was a sign of the lower level of importance of a bullpen. While I don’t discount the claim, surely there is a better metric than that. Can you direct me to any that you know of? Whether as a unit or as individual pitchers? I know FIP and xFIP fall short for relievers.
Baker in his blog has at times stumped for getting another good bullpen arm. That didn’t strike me as important as another starter or bat, and from what you said above I wonder if you would agree. What is your take on acquiring a reliever (No names, please! I don’t want to fuel speculation.)?
Putz LOB% in THT = 100.9%. He strands runners who aren’t even on base yet.
That’s really not fair. Sizemore has always had good walk per PA ratios, and this year has 56 walks in 427 PAs. The skeptics are hesitant not because AJ strikes out too much, but that he doesn’t walk enough to offset that strikeout ratio, so much so that I think the concerns that he’ll be fooled more easily as a 21-year old dealing w/big-league pitching are at least somewhat valid.
I think Dave’s point from an earlier thread that Jones would hit .270/.330/.450 might be a bit too high, but probably close enough. (Were I to guess, I’d say closer to .250/.310/.410, but that still, as was pointed out in that thread, is at least as good as Vidro, but with a significant defensive upgrade.) I just wish he’d learn better plate discipline, and doesn’t become Juan Encarnacion. I think we’d all be disappointed if that’s who AJ’s career resembled.
\Center Field BB% K% LD% BABIP ISO
Granderson 7.5% 22.6% 23.0% 0.358 0.273
Adam Jones 7.3% 22.6% 22.0% 0.357 0.283
When we talk about promoting Adam Jones, one of the initial reactions from the skeptics is that he strikes out too much, and his current numbers suggest that his current skillset won’t translate well to the major leagues. Curtis Granderson disagrees. They have, essentially, almost identical skillsets.
Still Dave, does Jones project to steal as many bases or hit as many extra base hits as Granderson?
Once you understand the predictive power of a skillset, you won’t care about things like current XBH totals.
I dunno…AJ may strike out too much right now, but the kind of things I think he needs to learn now are things best learned at the major league level…
I mean, how much more can you punish a ball than he has? What he needs to do is to learn how to handle balls that aren’t mistakes and the best thing to do that is at the majors; I get the feeling that minor league pitchers aren’t good enough to throw enough non-mistake pitches without throwing balls AJ can smack.
Great post. I completely agree and love the Granderson comparison. Obviously with Granderson being a lefty and hitting against Major League pitching the numbers are a little skewed. I am all for a Jones call up and rotating Raul and Vidro and Sexson at DH. Maybe give Jones a day off against hard throwing right handers throughout the rest of the season so he doesn’t strike out quite as much and lose some confidence.
#18 – My son throws righty and bats lefty. Just the way he does it, don’t know why just comfortable to him I guess. Am going to try to get him to bat switch once he gets a little older.
It’s often said that “Winners never say, ‘It not whether you win or lose, it’s how you play the game.’” So, it’s refreshing for winnres to take a look at how they are playing the game for once. Good job.
Dave, was Woods really DFA’d? I don’t seem to see an official transaction release on the team’s website.
sigh. Gas is baffled by criticism of Vidro (he’s hitting 280!) & HoRam (he’s 4 and 2!) — ‘why talk like they were unmitigated disasters! look at the numbers! the numbers don’t bear it out!’ and why people think the Soriano/Ramiriz deal was a bad idea (’you needed a starter, and you got one’)
+ It’s often said that “Winners never say, ‘It not whether you win or lose, it’s how you play the game.’” +
Is that often said? Only by Seattle sports radio personalities, I’d wager.
#101 – I was listening at that time and becoming apoplectic. I was traveling to my home in west Olympia and while driving over a lake, felt like swerving into a bridge abutment.